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Exide Industries Resilient Performance in Tough Environment Viewpoint

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Exide Industries Resilient Performance in Tough Environment Viewpoint Exide Industries Resilient performance in tough environment Viewpoint Exide Industries Ltd (Exide) delivered better than expected results in a Sector: Automobiles tough environment. Revenues were ahead of estimates driven by a surge Result Update in the automotive replacement and Uninterrupted Power Supply (UPS) demand while operating margins beat estimates driven by better mix Change and cost control measures. Exide reported profit in the quarter as against expectations of loss. Management has indicated a surge in the demand for View: Positive ßà automotive replacement batteries during the quarter. We expect automotive replacement demand (33-35%) of Exide revenues to recover fast given its CMP: Rs. 155 critical functionality, improving share of organized players and opening of economy by the Government. The management indicated that the Upside potential: 23-25% â institutional OEM business (automotive and industrial) is also witnessing gradual pick-up in demand riven by strong rural sentiments, pent up demand á Upgrade ßà No change â Downgrade and increase in industrial activities. Auto ancillary companies with a strong presence in replacement market would benefit from unlock measures by Company details Government and with improving OEM demand, auto ancillary players like Exide would also catch up. Exide is the market leader in the duopoly lead Market cap: Rs. 13,133 cr acid battery market with a strong balance sheet and healthy return ratios. Valuations at 12.8x FY22 core earnings are lower than long term historical 52-week high/low: Rs. 209 / 122 of 17x. Hence, we retain positive view on the stock and expect an upside of 23-25% from the current levels. NSE volume: (No of 26.5 lakh shares) Key positives Exide indicated that demand for auto replacement and UPS batteries BSE code: 500086 surged during Q1FY21 indicating faster recovery for these segments. NSE code: EXIDEIND Institutional OEM segment (auto and industrial) is witnessing a gradual improvement in demand. Sharekhan code: EXIDEIND Key negatives Free float: (No of In Q1FY21, other income more than halved to Rs 7 crore and was lower 45.9 cr shares) than expectations. Prices of key raw material lead has increased by about 12% in past 4-6 weeks which may impact profitability. Shareholding (%) Our Call Fine-tuned estimates; retain positive view: Automotive replacement demand Promoters 46.0 is expected to recover fast while demand is gradually picking up in automotive and industrial OEM segment. We have fine-tuned our earnings estimates for FII 9.4 both FY21 and FY22 to factor lag in pick up in the OEM demand and increased lead prices in tough demand scenario. At CMP, stock is trading at 12.8x its FY22 DII 31.3 core business earnings which is lower than its long-term historical average of 17x. Exide is a debt free company with healthy return ratios. Hence, we retain Others 13.3 our positive view on the stock and expect 23-25% upside from current levels. Key Risks Price chart Prolonged COVID-19 infection in India can dampen economic sentiments. Also, increase pricing pressures can impact the margins and financial performance. 220 190 160 Valuation (Standalone) Rs cr 130 Particulars FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E Revenues 9186.3 10588.3 9856.7 9014.3 10400.5 100 19 20 Growth (%) 21.1 15.3 -6.9 -8.5 15.4 19 20 - - - - EBIDTA 1240.8 1411.3 1365.0 1200.1 1473.2 Apr Dec Aug Aug OPM (%) 13.5 13.3 13.8 13.3 14.2 Price performance Net Profit 710.2 735.8 847.2 635.7 802.6 Growth (%) 2.4 3.6 15.1 -25.0 26.2 (%) 1m 3m 6m 12m EPS 8.4 8.7 10.0 7.5 9.4 Core P/E (x) 15.5 14.0 12.1 16.2 12.8 Absolute -1.9 4.9 -18.0 -13.8 Core P/BV (x) 3.4 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.2 Relative to EV/EBIDTA (x) 10.4 9.1 8.8 9.6 7.6 -3.2 -11.6 -8.6 -14.5 Sensex Core ROE (%) 17.7 15.9 16.2 11.2 12.9 Core ROCE (%) 19.4 18.8 16.0 12.1 14.1 Sharekhan Research, Bloomberg Source: Company; Sharekhan estimates August 03, 2020 15 Viewpoint Results better than estimates: Exide Industries Ltd (Exide) Q1FY21 results were better than expectations. Revenues at Rs 1,548 cr dropped 44% owing to lockdown due to COVID-19 but was significantly ahead of our estimates of Rs 1,170 cr. A surge in the automotive replacement segment and UPS batteries led to better than expected topline. Operating margins at 9.6% dropped 510 bps y-o-y but was better than estimates of 6.1%. Better mix and cost control initiatives led to Exide reporting better than anticipated margins. EBIDTA at Rs 149 cr was ahead of estimates. During the quarter, Exide reported a profit of Rs 44 cr as against our expectations of loss. Automotive replacement segment to recover sharply: Exide stated that during Q1FY21, automotive replacement batteries (forming 33-35% of revenues) were surging indicating pick up in the demand as Government began to unlock economy from mid of May 2020. We expect automotive replacement demand to recover sharply as businesses resume operations and the Government further eases restrictions from lockdown. Automotive battery is used for SLI (starting, lighting and ignition) requirement, which are the key functions for running the vehicle and demand in the aftermarket segment tends to remain steady even during challenging times. Also, post GST implementation, organised players like Exide are gaining market share from small unorganized players and we expect the trend to continue. Moreover, stricter enforcement of environmental norms relating to scrapping of old batteries would lead to market share gains for the organized players (unorganised players do not have environmentally compliant norms to scrap old batteries). We expect the automotive replacement demand to report flat to marginal growth in FY21. Automotive OEM sales picking up; Industrial OE segment recovering gradually: Exide indicated that the institutional segment (OEM segments) in both automotive and Industrial is picking up gradually. Automotive OEM segment volumes are picking up with the 2W and PV segment reaching 75-90% of Pre-COVID sales in the month of July 2020. Strong rural sentiments, pent up demand and increased preference for personal transportation are driving the OEM demand. CV OEM segment has also recovered to 65% of Pre-COVID sales in July 2020 driven by strong recovery in the LCV demand. Moreover, Exide indicated pick up in the UPS demand during Q1FY21 driven by opening of businesses. Traction, power & infrastructure batteries are likely to recover with pick up in industrial activities. We expect industrial OEM demand to recover going ahead. Results Rs cr Particulars Q1FY21 Q1FY20 YoY % Q4FY20 QoQ % Revenues 1,547.6 2,779.3 (44.3) 2,055.1 -24.7 EBIDTA 148.5 407.7 (63.6) 270.2 -45.1 EBIDTA Margins (%) 9.6 14.7 (510bps) 13.1 (350bps) Other income 7.0 16.4 (57.1) 16.9 -58.2 Depreciation 91.4 86.4 5.7 93.9 -2.7 PBT 62.7 335.9 (81.3) 189.5 -66.9 Tax 18.8 111.6 (83.2) 21.5 -12.8 Adjusted PAT 44.0 224.3 (80.4) 168.0 -73.8 Reported PAT 44.0 224.3 (80.4) 168.0 -73.8 EPS 0.5 2.6 (80.4) 2.0 -73.8 Source: Company SOTP table Particulars Value per share Comments Core business 161 17x FY22 earnings Exide Life Insurance 34 1.2x Embedded value Overall 194 Source: Sharekhan Research August 03, 2020 16 Viewpoint Outlook Replacement demand to recover fast; OEM demand improving gradually: The auto replacement segment forming 33-35% of Exide’s revenues is expected to recover fast, driven by critical function of battery and the Government’s move to lift lockdown in non-containment zones and open up businesses. Exide has indicated a surge in the auto replacement demand during Q1FY21. Also, Institutional demand (automotive and Industrial) is also witnessing a gradual pick up which would benefit ancillary player like Exide. Valuation Fine-tuned estimates; retain positive view: Automotive replacement demand is expected to recover fast while demand is gradually picking up in automotive and industrial OEM segment. We have fine-tuned our earnings estimates for both FY21 and FY22 to factor lag in pick up in the OEM demand and increased lead prices in tough demand scenario. To factor the above, we have fine-tuned our earnings estimates for both FY21 and FY22. At CMP, stock is trading at 12.8x its FY22 core business earnings which is lower than its long- term historical average of 17x. Hence, we retain positive view on the stock and expect 23-25% upside from current levels. One-year forward P/E (x) band 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 08 11 14 07 17 10 20 13 16 19 06 09 12 15 18 07 10 13 16 19 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Forward P/E (x) Average P/E (x) Peak P/E (x) Trough P/E (x) Source: Sharekhan Research Peer Comparison P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) Particulars FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E Exide Industries 16.2 12.8 9.6 7.6 2.5 2.2 11.2 12.9 Amara Raja Batteries 18.6 16.1 9.6 7.9 2.7 2.4 14.6 15.1 Source: Sharekhan Research August 03, 2020 17 Viewpoint About company Exide is one of the leading battery manufacturers in India catering to automobiles and industrial segments.
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