Legatum Institute Prospects for Iran Jonathan Paris Prospects for IranProspects for Jonathan Paris www.li.com Legatum Institute, 11 Charles Street, Mayfair, London, W1J 5DW, United Kingdom Telephone +44 (0)20 7148 5400, Facsimile +44 (0)20 7148 5401, www.li.com Copyright © 2011 Legatum Limited ISBN 978-1-907409-15-8 January 2011 9 781907 409158 January 2011 Prospects for Iran Jonathan Paris Legatum Institute Copyright © 2011 Legatum Limited All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical including photocopying, recording or any information storage or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the copyright holder. Please direct all enquiries to the publishers. Legatum Institute 11 Charles Street, Mayfair London, W1J 5DW United Kingdom T +44 (0)20 7148 5400 F +44 (0)20 7148 5401 www.li.com
[email protected] CONTENTS About the Author 5 Acknowledgements 6 Executive Summary 7 Introduction 12 Chapter 1 Domestic Considerations 13 Chapter 2 The Nuclear File 34 Chapter 3 Regional Snapshots 64 Conclusion 70 3 ABOUT THE autHOR Jonathan S. Paris is a London-based security specialist and Non-resident Senior Fellow with the Atlantic Council of the United States South Asia Center. He is also an Adjunct Fellow at the Legatum Institute and an Associate Fellow with the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR) at King’s College London. In 2010, he authored the Legatum Institute’s Prospects for Pakistan Report. Before moving to London in 2001, he was a Middle East Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York from 1995-2000, where he worked on the four MENA Economic Summits and the Middle East peace process, and was deputy to Paul A.