The 1923 Hague Rules of Air Warfare
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Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics After World War I
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER June 2018 Working Paper 2018-06 https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/2018/06/ Suggested citation: Lopez, Jose A., Kris James Mitchener. 2018. “Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2018-06. https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2018-06 The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER* May 9, 2018 ABSTRACT. Fiscal deficits, elevated debt-to-GDP ratios, and high inflation rates suggest hyperinflation could have potentially emerged in many European countries after World War I. We demonstrate that economic policy uncertainty was instrumental in pushing a subset of European countries into hyperinflation shortly after the end of the war. Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary (GAPH) suffered from frequent uncertainty shocks – and correspondingly high levels of uncertainty – caused by protracted political negotiations over reparations payments, the apportionment of the Austro-Hungarian debt, and border disputes. In contrast, other European countries exhibited lower levels of measured uncertainty between 1919 and 1925, allowing them more capacity with which to implement credible commitments to their fiscal and monetary policies. -
The Foundations of US Air Doctrine
DISCLAIMER This study represents the views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the Air University Center for Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and Education (CADRE) or the Department of the Air Force. This manuscript has been reviewed and cleared for public release by security and policy review authorities. iii Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Watts, Barry D. The Foundations ofUS Air Doctrine . "December 1984 ." Bibliography : p. Includes index. 1. United States. Air Force. 2. Aeronautics, Military-United States. 3. Air warfare . I. Title. 11. Title: Foundations of US air doctrine . III. Title: Friction in war. UG633.W34 1984 358.4'00973 84-72550 355' .0215-dc 19 ISBN 1-58566-007-8 First Printing December 1984 Second Printing September 1991 ThirdPrinting July 1993 Fourth Printing May 1996 Fifth Printing January 1997 Sixth Printing June 1998 Seventh Printing July 2000 Eighth Printing June 2001 Ninth Printing September 2001 iv THE AUTHOR s Lieutenant Colonel Barry D. Watts (MA philosophy, University of Pittsburgh; BA mathematics, US Air Force Academy) has been teaching and writing about military theory since he joined the Air Force Academy faculty in 1974 . During the Vietnam War he saw combat with the 8th Tactical Fighter Wing at Ubon, Thailand, completing 100 missions over North Vietnam in June 1968. Subsequently, Lieutenant Colonel Watts flew F-4s from Yokota AB, Japan, and Kadena AB, Okinawa. More recently, he has served as a military assistant to the Director of Net Assessment, Office of the Secretary of Defense, and with the Air Staff's Project CHECKMATE. -
Records of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1891-1957, Record Group 85 New Orleans, Louisiana Crew Lists of Vessels Arriving at New Orleans, LA, 1910-1945
Records of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1891-1957, Record Group 85 New Orleans, Louisiana Crew Lists of Vessels Arriving at New Orleans, LA, 1910-1945. T939. 311 rolls. (~A complete list of rolls has been added.) Roll Volumes Dates 1 1-3 January-June, 1910 2 4-5 July-October, 1910 3 6-7 November, 1910-February, 1911 4 8-9 March-June, 1911 5 10-11 July-October, 1911 6 12-13 November, 1911-February, 1912 7 14-15 March-June, 1912 8 16-17 July-October, 1912 9 18-19 November, 1912-February, 1913 10 20-21 March-June, 1913 11 22-23 July-October, 1913 12 24-25 November, 1913-February, 1914 13 26 March-April, 1914 14 27 May-June, 1914 15 28-29 July-October, 1914 16 30-31 November, 1914-February, 1915 17 32 March-April, 1915 18 33 May-June, 1915 19 34-35 July-October, 1915 20 36-37 November, 1915-February, 1916 21 38-39 March-June, 1916 22 40-41 July-October, 1916 23 42-43 November, 1916-February, 1917 24 44 March-April, 1917 25 45 May-June, 1917 26 46 July-August, 1917 27 47 September-October, 1917 28 48 November-December, 1917 29 49-50 Jan. 1-Mar. 15, 1918 30 51-53 Mar. 16-Apr. 30, 1918 31 56-59 June 1-Aug. 15, 1918 32 60-64 Aug. 16-0ct. 31, 1918 33 65-69 Nov. 1', 1918-Jan. 15, 1919 34 70-73 Jan. 16-Mar. 31, 1919 35 74-77 April-May, 1919 36 78-79 June-July, 1919 37 80-81 August-September, 1919 38 82-83 October-November, 1919 39 84-85 December, 1919-January, 1920 40 86-87 February-March, 1920 41 88-89 April-May, 1920 42 90 June, 1920 43 91 July, 1920 44 92 August, 1920 45 93 September, 1920 46 94 October, 1920 47 95-96 November, 1920 48 97-98 December, 1920 49 99-100 Jan. -
Official Account of the Bombardment of Fort Mchenry
Official Account of the Bombardment of Fort McHenry. Copy of a letter from Lieut. Colonel Armistead, to the Secretary of War, dated Fort McHenry, Sept. 24th, 1814 A severe indisposition, the effect of great fatigue and exposure, has prevented me heretofore from presenting you with an account of the attack on this post. On the night of Saturday the 10th inst. the British fleet, consisting of ships of the line, heavy frigates, and bomb vessels, amounting in the whole to 30 sail, appeared at the mouth of the river Patapsco, with every indication of an attempt on the city of Baltimore. My own force consisted of one company of U.S. artillery, under Capt. Evans, and two companies of sea fencibles, under Capts. Bunbury and Addison. Of these three companies, 35 men were unfortunately on the sick list, and unfit for duty. I had been furnished with two companies of volunteer artillery from Baltimore, under Capt. Berry, and Lt. Commandant Pennington. --To these I must add another very fine company of volunteer artillerists, under Judge Nicholson, who had proffered their services to aid in the defense of this post whenever an attack might be apprehended; and also a detachment from Commodore Barney's flotilla under Lieut. Redman. Brig. Gen. Winder had also furnished me with about six hundred infantry, and Major Lane, consisting of detachments from the 12th, 14th, 36th, and 38th Regim. of U.S. troops - the total amounting to more than 1000 effective men. On Monday morning very early, it was perceived that the enemy was landing troops on the east side of the Patapsco, distant about ten miles. -
Precision Weapons in Aerial Warfare
IDSA Issue Brief IDSIDSAA ISSUEISSUE BRIEFBRIEF1 Precision Weapons in Aerial Warfare Vivek Kapur Gp. Capt. Vivek Kapur is Research Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi May 08, 2012 Summary Precision weapon delivery has come into the general public's mind space especially in the past two decades. While technology did not permit the achievement of great precision in earlier years, today technology has delivered the ability to place weapons at desired locations with great accuracy, currently measured in a few metres. Precision in aerial warfare, which initially lay in the individual skills of combatants, has shifted to machines through the incorporation of advanced technology. Today precision is more widespread on the battlefield that at any time in history. Indications are that in the coming years, the development of Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) will give greater magnitudes of precision than are available today. Disclaimer: Views expressed in IDSA’s publications and on its website are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or the Government of India. Precision Weapons in Aerial Warfare 2 Precision in warfare has been a much sought after capability that was realised when modern technology matured adequately. Precision has changed the very nature of aerial warfare in particular. Today modern air forces have the ability to put a bomb through a chosen window with confidence. However, trends indicate that in future precision weaponry could migrate towards directed energy weapons that have the potential to deliver a degree ofe precision that lies in the realm of science fiction today. -
Effects-Based Operations and the Law of Aerial Warfare
Washington University Global Studies Law Review Volume 5 Issue 2 January 2006 Effects-based Operations and the Law of Aerial Warfare Michael N. Schmitt George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies Follow this and additional works at: https://openscholarship.wustl.edu/law_globalstudies Part of the Military, War, and Peace Commons Recommended Citation Michael N. Schmitt, Effects-based Operations and the Law of Aerial Warfare, 5 WASH. U. GLOBAL STUD. L. REV. 265 (2006), https://openscholarship.wustl.edu/law_globalstudies/vol5/iss2/2 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Law School at Washington University Open Scholarship. It has been accepted for inclusion in Washington University Global Studies Law Review by an authorized administrator of Washington University Open Scholarship. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Washington University Global Studies Law Review VOLUME 5 NUMBER 2 2006 EFFECTS-BASED OPERATIONS AND THE LAW OF AERIAL WARFARE MICHAEL N. SCHMITT* Law responds almost instinctively to tectonic shifts in warfare.1 For instance, the Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949 constituted a dramatic reaction to the suffering of civilian populations during World War II.2 Similarly, the 1977 Protocols Additional3 updated and expanded the law of armed conflict (LOAC) in response both to the growing prevalence of non-international armed conflicts and wars of national liberation and to the recognized need to codify the norms governing the conduct of hostilities.4 In light of this symbiotic relationship, it is essential that LOAC experts carefully monitor developments in military affairs, because such developments may well either strain or strengthen aspects of that body of law.5 As an example, the widespread use in Iraq of civilian contractors and * Professor of International Law and Director, Program in Advanced Security Studies, George C. -
Space Weapons Earth Wars
CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that EDUCATION AND THE ARTS helps improve policy and decisionmaking through ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT research and analysis. HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from INFRASTRUCTURE AND www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND TRANSPORTATION Corporation. INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Support RAND Purchase this document TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY Browse Reports & Bookstore Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND Project AIR FORCE View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. The monograph/report was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1993 to 2003. RAND monograph/reports presented major research findings that addressed the challenges facing the public and private sectors. They included executive summaries, technical documentation, and synthesis pieces. SpaceSpace WeaponsWeapons EarthEarth WarsWars Bob Preston | Dana J. Johnson | Sean J.A. Edwards Michael Miller | Calvin Shipbaugh Project AIR FORCE R Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. -
Tuesday, 5 December 1922 Various Resolutions; Election of ECCI; Close of Congress
Session 32 – Tuesday, 5 December 1922 Various Resolutions; Election of ECCI; Close of Congress The Norwegian question. Resolution on the terror in Ire- land. Question of the Versailles Peace Treaty. Tactics of the Communist International. The Eastern question. Edu- cational work. France. Resolution on the Russian Revolu- tion. Election of the Executive Committee. Closing speech by Zinoviev. Speakers: Haakon Meyer, Connolly, Hoernle, Bor- diga, Clara Zetkin, Kolarov, Billings, Grün, Torp, Kolarov, Zinoviev Convened: 6:50 p.m. Chairperson: Neurath Haakon Meyer (Norway): The majority of the Nor- wegian delegation states that it is not happy with the proposed resolution. A number of its points do not reflect our views. In some cases, we believe that the Commission has handled specific matters in too abstract and schematic a fashion. This applies, for example, to the cases of Halvard Olsen and Karl Johanssen. As for the latter point, a proposal had been made by the entire delegation to formulate this differ- ently, but it was rejected by the Commission. In other cases, we believe that the resolution is insufficiently objective. That applies to the point concerning Mot Dag, which, in our opinion, is not a closed group, and also for Point 4 [of the resolution], which deserves criticism. 1094 • Session 32 – 5 December 1922 However, after thorough discussion of all the disputed questions in the Commission, we will not initiate further debate in the plenary, but, rather, state that the majority of the delegation will vote for the resolution. Chair: We will now take the vote on the resolution proposed by the Norwegian Commission. -
The Submarine and the Washington Conference Of
477 THE SUBMARINE AND THE WASHINGTON CONFERENCE OF 1921 Lawrence H. Douglas Following the First World War, the tation of this group, simply stated, was tide of public opinion was overwhelm that second best in naval strength meant ingly against the submarine as a weapon last. A policy of naval superiority was of war. The excesses of the German necessary, they felt, for "history consis U-boat had stunned the sensibilities of tently shows that war between no two the world but had, nonetheless, pre peoples or nations can be unthink sented new ideas and possibilities of this able.,,1 A second group, the Naval weapon to the various naval powers of Advisory Committee (Admirals Pratt the time. The momentum of these new and Coontz and Assistant Secretary of ideas proved so strong that by the the Navy Theodore Roosevelt, Jr.) also opening of the first major international submitted recommendations concerning disarmament conference of the 20th the limitation of naval armaments. century, practical uses of the submarine From the outset their deliberations were had all but smothered the moral indig guided by a concern that had become nation of 1918. more and more apparent-the threat Several months prior to the opening posed to the security and interests of of the conference, the General Board of this country by Japan. This concern was the American Navy was given the task evidenced in an attempt to gain basic of developing guidelines and recommen understandings with Britain. dations to be used by the State Depart The submarine received its share of ment in determining the American attention in the deliberations of these proposals to be presented. -
Bombardment of Land Targets
BQMBAADRElT OF UlO 2ARC$~%S--MXLXT&WY 8$C~B$JIZ'Y ABE PRQPQWTPO8BCETY X&2&RFEWPSD Tha @pinion@ an& aon~XuoBon~axpraassd hernia tha@s ai" the fndiridual student autk@sarnd do not ~d)aea&~rlJty wpws+at the viewis ~f efOber The Judge Adv~&aEe"Wnem2'B 3~82402QP any other goverma~ntalagpnop. R+%s~@ncraabta Oh5a stud$ ehoula Znelerda %he Fomg~ingstatement, ui€b nationsl survival. 8%stake, Total wta~has been avoided In w@enP,yews, gat- %usP@sz* tlfsarmamnt and absslute war g~ventloa taw not 11&e1y t~ oebisva uaimr~a3aocegtanoa within the farsaeablt8 future. T$s.@~eFoz-e,the the i~abgb fop wasX8 power& to re-exarainre %he 5aw of was. This trok su~tnat asau1FSte %be fom cf a p@rO"trwoto~~~rribual, bat ~BsulBbe d@sf~6&,&~baxanee arcse@s?qrhuaastnftartrs~ aanaept8 wP%B %he malftied of mr, Eith the a&~@ntof nuclmr waapona, and lsng mgp land, ssar an4 B~IPbaX2ves~yaayr%arsx~,€he rulssr pcbrtalntng to bo@baM@sntaoquimd Za0~ma%iarsaTZmpsstaase. UhfP& h@@Bar$~+~2B~.BEQFIo~&L~was utd~%efedIn &$metaupgcsrt of grouaQ troops or in battle@ betwen ws wajlaaals, at rspPd%ydsvajlogdad irrto nuaaerpuus ~gsZc~ms9t aP mss 8eva@%a%too,Weapon tac%RPr@Soggmp2bfy -1- autdiataao%dthe axiatiag law of wm. Aacar&ln6JyI boaba~dmssntpraattO@l, t~ 80m@ d&gmt~,'~BFVQ~'war haw by urssga-*rather than tbs gr&otictst devralopln& ua&cgr pre-@xi~$iag 3.egpl mstriatlann. Thta situcblon baa aaur@&wrktrra t~ aa#er%div~roe trions aonasmkng the eff~atof b0~b8~6m~tQaw, kXoymm aakntain~that '(rfuZsa of war,*,do not aimit utSlXty,.., "'~'br~sn st&%ssthat Wa$m 'gmva8 that thema me a@@ff@a%im (aerial boeb~rdesant)Ier. -
The Origins of Mad: a Short History of City-Busting
CHAPTER 1 THE ORIGINS OF MAD: A SHORT HISTORY OF CITY-BUSTING Richard R. Muller INTRODUCTION The 20th century was the age of total war, and nothing symbolized that dreadful era more than the bombardment of civilian populations from the air. From its halting beginnings in the First World War, in which 1,141 Britons lost their lives, strategic bombing evolved into the mass air raids of the Second World War, in which some 52,000 British, 330,000 Japanese, and anywhere from 300,000 to 1,000,000 German civilians perished. Nations poured scarce blood and treasure into the development and manning of vast bomber fl eets capable of carrying the war directly to enemy economic and population centers in the hope that this investment would prove decisive in modern warfare.1 The underlying rationale for strategic air warfare predates the reality of manned powered fl ight. Before the arrival of the machine age, wars were fought primarily between the armed forces of the belligerents. The 19th century Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz noted that, while the “center of gravity . the hub of all power and movement” of an enemy state was normally its army, it could also be the capital, a key ally, or even public opinion.2 National power, therefore, could not be measured solely in terms of traditional military capability. Political will, economic productivity, transportation, commerce, and communications became increasingly important factors in struggles between the great powers. The advent of the commercial, fi nancial, and industrial revolutions brought with it the rise of the modern urban center, in which many of these elements were concentrated. -
The Ends of Four Big Inflations
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Inflation: Causes and Effects Volume Author/Editor: Robert E. Hall Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-31323-9 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/hall82-1 Publication Date: 1982 Chapter Title: The Ends of Four Big Inflations Chapter Author: Thomas J. Sargent Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11452 Chapter pages in book: (p. 41 - 98) The Ends of Four Big Inflations Thomas J. Sargent 2.1 Introduction Since the middle 1960s, many Western economies have experienced persistent and growing rates of inflation. Some prominent economists and statesmen have become convinced that this inflation has a stubborn, self-sustaining momentum and that either it simply is not susceptible to cure by conventional measures of monetary and fiscal restraint or, in terms of the consequent widespread and sustained unemployment, the cost of eradicating inflation by monetary and fiscal measures would be prohibitively high. It is often claimed that there is an underlying rate of inflation which responds slowly, if at all, to restrictive monetary and fiscal measures.1 Evidently, this underlying rate of inflation is the rate of inflation that firms and workers have come to expect will prevail in the future. There is momentum in this process because firms and workers supposedly form their expectations by extrapolating past rates of inflation into the future. If this is true, the years from the middle 1960s to the early 1980s have left firms and workers with a legacy of high expected rates of inflation which promise to respond only slowly, if at all, to restrictive monetary and fiscal policy actions.