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The Pennsylvania State University The Graduate School Department of Political Science POWER, IDENTITY, CREDIBILITY & COOPERATION: EXAMINING THE DEVELOPMENT OF COOPERATIVE ARRANGEMENTS AMONG VIOLENT NON-STATE ACTORS A Dissertation in Political Science by Kanisha D. Bond © 2010 Kanisha D. Bond Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy August 2010 The dissertation of Kanisha D. Bond was reviewed and approved* by the following: Douglas Lemke Associate Professor of Political Science Dissertation Advisor Chair of Committee Glenn Palmer Professor of Political Science D. Scott Bennett Distinguished Professor of Political Science Head of the Political Science Department Navin Bapat Assistant Professor of Political Science Stephen A. Matthews Associate Professor of Sociology, Anthropology, and Demography *Signatures are on file in the Graduate School ii ABSTRACT Much of the empirical and theoretical work on the external politics of violent non-state actors (VNAs) has focused on either their conflict behaviors or their potential for cooperation with state actors. However, cooperation among VNAs themselves has received limited systematic scrutiny, despite significant anecdotal evidence suggesting that this behavior has been prevalent in and significant to world politics over time. In this dissertation, I examine the development of inter- VNA cooperative arrangements, specifically showing how organization-level characteristics influence how VNAs answer three key questions about inter-group cooperation: 1) What are the general costs and benefits of cooperation as a strategy for increasing security; 2) With which other VNAs to cooperate?; and 3) How should that cooperation be designed? My main argument is that variation among VNAs in terms of bargaining credibility – as inferred from organization-level power and identity characteristics – partly explains why some VNAs cooperate with other violent organizations while others do not, as well as why there is variation in the design of the arrangements that are formed. In quantitative analyses of my hypotheses, I use original data to examine the relationship between various power and identity characteristics and arrangement onset and design for VNAs based in Latin America during 1940- 2005. The empirical results point to significant differences among VNAs in terms of what they bring to the negotiating table, with respect to both material capabilities and social capital. I find that power characteristics have a relatively small practical impact on both the likelihood of cooperation onset and the likelihood that a given dyad will choose to institutionalize their relationship. Comparatively however, power characteristics matter much more for explaining variation in design than variation in onset. Additionally, while identity characteristics play a large role in determining iii the development of inter-VNA cooperation, I find that while these actors may choose their arrangement partners based largely on socio-political affinities, they more often choose institutional designs in response to patterns of past cooperative (or non-cooperative) behavior. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures.............................................................................................................................................x List of Tables.............................................................................................................................................xi Acknowledgements.................................................................................................................................xiv Chapter 1. Introduction……….…………………………………………………….................1 Cooperation among Violent Non-State Actors: When and Why?.................……...….…1 Definitions: Violent Non-State Actors (VNAs) and Cooperative Arrangement……......3 Study Relevance……………………………………………………………………….5 Dissertation Outline…………………………………………………...…….............…6 Chapter 2. Power, Identity, Credibility and Cooperation: Applying and Refining State-Based Perspectives for VNAs……………………………………...…………………....10 Competing Explanations, Open Questions and Research Opportunities……….……..10 Extant Perspectives on Interstate Cooperation……………………………………......13 Power and interstate cooperation…………………………………...……........13 Identity and interstate cooperation…………………………………….............15 Information and interstate cooperation……………………………….……....15 Power and Identity as sources of information about credibility……………….17 Power and Identity as sources of information about VNA credibility?.............................19 Opportunities for a better conceptualization of VNA credibility……………...………23 Chapter 3: Building the VNA Characteristics and Cooperation (1940-2005) Dataset…..............26 Part I: Introduction……………………………………………………..…...……..…26 Limitations of Existing Datasets…………………………………………........27 v Definitions and Unit Inclusion Criteria………………………….…............…..29 Part II: Monadic version of the dataset……………………………………….…..........32 Collection strategy and coding procedures……………………………..…..….32 Background Information………………………………………….…..………34 Cooperation Onset…………………………………………………..…….......37 Identity Characteristics………………………………………........…..……….38 Power Characteristics……………………………………...……....………..…44 Part III: Dyadic version of the dataset…………………………....….....…..…....……..47 Collection strategy and coding procedures…….................….....……......………47 Background information……………………...………....…….......……............48 Cooperation Onset………………………...……….……….....……………....49 Measures of identity similarity…………... .……………….................………...49 Measures of power similarity………....…….………………....………………51 Part IV: Arrangements version of the dataset……....……..……………….…………..53 Collection strategy and procedures………....……..…………..........…………..53 Background information……………....……..……………....………………..55 Measures of collective strength and collective identity for participating VNAs…………………………………....................……….…………….....56 Chapter 4: Explaining the Onset of Inter-VNA Cooperation…………….………....…………61 Introduction…………………………………………………………….....…..………61 Part I: Predicting Cooperation Onset for Individual VNAs…………………………....62 Does credibility beget desirability?...............................................................................63 Determining desirability using power-based credibility………...……........…….64 Determining desirability using identity-based credibility……….………...…….68 vi Relationship between power and identity in determining desirability…………. 69 Hypotheses…………………………………………………………….….…. 71 Research Design………………………………………………………..….… 72 Dependent Variable…………………............................………….......…..72 Independent Variables……………………………………………...….. 72 Controls………………………………………………………...………75 Testing Strategy……………………………….………………...……....76 Empirical Results………………………………………………….....................76 Implications and Discussion…………………………………...…....…………79 Part II: Predicting Dyadic Cooperation Onset………………………...…....…………..82 Identifying Compatible Partners……………………………….............……….82 Power-based arguments about compatibility………………………....….……..83 Identity-based arguments about compatibility……………………..……….…..86 Relationship between power and identity (a)symmetries and compatibility..........88 Hypotheses………………………………………………………………….....89 Research Design……………………………………………………………….90 Dependent Variable………………………………………………........91 Independent Variables………………………………………..…...…...91 Controls…………………………………….........……………......…....92 Testing Strategy……………………………….....……………....……..93 Empirical Results……………………................................……………...…...…..93 Implications and Discussion………………………………...……...…………..95 Chapter 5: Explaining the Design of Inter-VNA Cooperation………………….........................112 Introduction…………………………………………………………...……………...112 vii Uncertainty and Rational Institutional Design……………………........…………….. .115 Institutionalization as a Design Choice……………………………...………………...117 Definition and general relationship to uncertainty………..……….……...........118 Why institutionalize?.....................................................................................................121 Reasons for avoiding institutionalization……………..………………………123 The Impact of VNA Credibility on the Decision to Institutionalize……..……..……..128 Hypotheses………………………………………………………....………..……….135 Research Design……………………………………………………..…….......……...137 Dependent Variable………………………………………..……..…………..138 Independent Variables………………………………….......……..………......138 Controls…………………………………………….........…......……………..139 Empirical Results…………………………………………………………………….140 Discussion and Implications…………………………...……...………………............143 Special note about multilateralism……………….....................……………....….….....144 Chapter 6: Conclusion, Implications and Areas for Future Research……...…….................…..155 A new approach to studying the politics of cooperation for VNAs...……......................155 Review of empirical conclusions and implications…………………................................157 Limitations and areas for future research…………………………………...…............160 Special notes about selection bias…………………………………………...…....…...162 Concluding Remarks……………………………………..................................................167 References………………………………………………………………………………....…168 Appendix A: List of VNAs included in VNA Characteristics and Cooperation Dataset.............179 Appendix B: Descriptive Statistics for Monadic version of dataset…………………….. ....….186