Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 757–774, 2016 www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/16/757/2016/ doi:10.5194/nhess-16-757-2016 © Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License. River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change Yus Budiyono1,2, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts1, Daniel Tollenaar3, and Philip J. Ward1 1Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands 2Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT), Jakarta, Indonesia 3Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands Correspondence to: Y. Budiyono (
[email protected]) Received: 29 May 2015 – Published in Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.: 30 July 2015 Revised: 30 January 2016 – Accepted: 12 February 2016 – Published: 17 March 2016 Abstract. Given the increasing impacts of flooding in 1 Introduction Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner- Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia, suffers from regular risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and floods that cause significant economic damage. For example, land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood the major floods in 2002, 2007, 2013, and 2014 have caused risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual ex- billions of dollars of direct and indirect economic damage pected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, expo- (Bappenas, 2007; Ward et al., 2013a; Sagala et al., 2013). sure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at Whilst flooding in Jakarta is not a new problem per se (No- USD 186 million p.a.