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A N N U Al R E P O Rt a N Alysis FY 2 1 Bharat Electronics

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A N N U Al R E P O Rt a N Alysis FY 2 1 Bharat Electronics Bharat Electronics BUY Entering a new orbit CMP Rs 199 Bharat Electronics’ (BHE) AR21 analysis indicates that FY22 guidance Target / Upside Rs 221 / 11% (sales growth of 15-17%) is very much realistic in nature as BHE has BSE Sensex 58,145 contracts worth ~Rs186bn to be executed within a year, which is 12-14% higher than sales guidance of Rs162-165bn. Notably, it has achieved NSE Nifty 17,324 execution of Rs141bn / Rs130bn in FY21 / FY20 vs targeted value Rs162bn Scrip Details / Rs131bn. Covid disruptions resulted into ~15% miss during FY21. Ramp Equity / FV Rs 2,437mn / Rs 1 up of non-defense opportunities, exports, improved share of high margin service business and growth opportunity for BHE from private sector Market Cap Rs 484bn forays into defense are all medium term catalysts. BHE has displayed US$ 6.6bn traits of secular top-line growth over last decade with no drop in sales on 52-week High/Low Rs 200/Rs 86 YoY basis. We forecast similar trend in future given its healthy backlog of Rs545bn (book/bill of 3.9x), robust order pipeline ~Rs700-800bn in next Avg. Volume (no) 12,123,600 3 years, rising contribution from non-defence segment and margin NSE Symbol BEL expansion due to mix/indigenization. We retain BUY rating with a TP of Bloomberg Code BHE IN Rs221, valuing at 18x Sept'23 EPS. Shareholding Pattern Jun'21(%) Huge growth potential in non-defence segments Promoters 51.1 As a diversification strategy, BHE has been exploring opportunities in allied MF/Banks/FIs 28.9 defence and non-defence areas for growth, leveraging its strengths & FIIs 14.1 capabilities acquired in the defence electronics domain. In the past 4-5 Public / Others 5.9 years, the non-defence portion, on an average (exception being in FY19 due to EVM/VVPTs) in the Company’s business is ~17% of total turnover. Non-defence revenues share in FY21 stood at 22%. The Company aims to BHE Relative to Sensex achieve revenues of 25%+ from the non-defence biz in future which includes: i) Medical Electronics & Healthcare solutions (Rs10bn/yr), ii) 170 Solutions for civil aviation sector, iii) Space launch vehicles, iv) Solar business, iv) Metro solutions (Rs10-15bn/yr), v) Electric vehicles (Fuel Cells, 150 Charging Stations), vi) Homeland Security & Smart cities (Rs15bn/yr), vii) EVM & VVPAT and viii) Atmospheric water generator etc. 130 Capable of delivering double digit top-line growth in long run In addition to healthy order backlog stands of Rs545bn, management 110 expects inflows of Rs150bn+ in FY22E. Moreover, orders worth Rs700- 800bn are in pipeline over the next 3 years which includes, i) Electronic 90 Annual Report Analysiswarfare: FY21 Rs120-150bn, ii) Missiles (Akash, QRSAM, LRSAM, MRSAM): Rs250-300bn, iii) Naval Equipment (Radar, Sonar, Combat management 70 system, and communication system): Rs150-200bn, iv) Non-defence: Jul-21 Oct-20 Apr-21 Jan-21 Jun-21 Mar-21 Feb-21 Nov-20 Dec-20 Sep-20 Aug-21 Sep-21 Rs150bn and vi) Long-range glided bombs & ammunition fuses. BHE is a May-21 key beneficiary of the announced list of 156 defense systems/sub-systems BHE SENSEX for exports, including Akash and Brahmos. Indigenization, outsourcing & mix to aid in margin uptick BHE has started reaping fruits of its strong R&D spend and past investments to enhance scope of indigenization. Hence, it has been able to VP - Research: Umesh Raut negate the overhang of lower margin in nomination-based contracts by Tel: +91 22 40969753 reducing quantum of imports. Employee count (9,172 in FY21 vs 11,180 in E-mail: [email protected] FY11) continues to decline as it intends to reduce employee cost to 12% of sales by outsourcing low value addition jobs. Management has guided an Associate: Tanay Rasal EBITDA margin in the range of 20-22% for FY22E. There are substantial Tel: +91 22 40969700 opportunities available in the high margin services business, including AMC E-mail: [email protected] as well as defense software. Margins are expected to improve led by increasing contribution from services & exports, and indigenization mandate which will create a favorable ecosystem, resulting in lower procurement costs and faster approvals. BHE generated robust OCF of Rs51bn in FY21 (~total of past five years) due to improvement in NWC, which clearly is one of the re-rating triggers. September 05, 2021 Annual Report Macro View Mrs Anandi Ramalingam is the Chairman and Managing Director (Additional Charge). Dr. Dinesh Batra is the Director (Finance) & CFO. Key Management (Shri M V Gowtama, former Chairman and MD has retired from his services on 30th June, 2021) As on 31 March 2021, BEL Board of Directors comprises of seven Whole-time Independent Director Executive (Functional) Directors including the CMD, two Part-time Government (Nonexecutive) Directors and one Part time Independent (Non-executive) Director. Auditors M/s Suri & Co. are the statutory auditors of the company. Pledged Shares 0.47% of the shares are pledged The Covid-19 pandemic caused a sharp drop in global trade, commodity prices, and tighter external financing conditions, all of which had varying effects on various countries' current account balances and currencies. Nonetheless, central bank stimulus and a resumption of vaccination programmes resulted in economic revival. According to a SIPRI report published in April 2021, global defence spending in 2020 will reach $1981 billion, a 2.6 percent annual increase in real terms over 2019 – the highest level since 1988. In India, the budgetary allocation for defence was increased to Rs4,781 billion for Macroeconomic factor fiscal year 2021-22, a Rs6.8bn or 1.4% increase. The capital expenditure allocation for modernization and infrastructure development of the Armed Forces has been significantly increased. The capital allocation for FY22 is Rs1,350bn, an increase of 18.75% over FY21. The Air Force received Rs532bn in capital expenditure, the Army received Rs366bn, and the Navy received Rs332bn. Furthermore, as part of a policy initiative, the route limit was raised from 49% to 74% in September 2020. This modification was made as part of the Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan with domestic firms expected to benefit from increased access to capital and cutting-edge technology. Category of Shareholder (%) FY21 Promoter Holding 51.1 DII 28.9 Key Holders FII/FPI 14.1 Public 5.9 Others 0 Total 100 Source: Company, DART September 05, 2021 2 Bharat Electronics Story in charts Healthy order backlog of Rs545bn Strong OB warrant healthy execution over the next five years 600 5 210,000 22 4.7 20.2 17.7 550 5 190,000 17.0 4.4 4.4 500 14.3 4.3 5 170,000 17 450 4.1 150,000 4.0 4.0 4.0 4 10.0 400 9.9 3.8 130,000 12 8.8 4 8.8 350 7.0 3.6 110,000 6.6 300 4 6.1 90,000 3.9 7 3.7 4 3.0 250 70,000 3.0 3 200 50,000 2 150 3 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY24E FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY23E FY21 Order Backlog (Rs bn) - LHS Book/Bill (x) - RHS Revenue (Rs mn) - LHS Growth YoY (%) - RHS Source: Company, DART Source: Company, DART Indigenization mandate, internal … consequently, leading to uptick in profit efficiencies to aid in margin uptick 52,000 25 31,000 40 34.0 23.9 22.8 21.9 22.4 22.8 46,000 21.2 28,000 25.8 20.5 23 30 40,000 19.6 25,000 18.9 19.1 20 17.3 17.7 15.1 14.7 34,000 22,000 13.9 20 12.1 16.6 11.7 28,000 18 19,000 7.6 4.5 14.2 10 22,000 15 16,000 (3.3) 16,000 13,000 (3.5) (7.6) 10.8 0 10,000 10.6 13 10,000 4,000 10 7,000 (10) FY11 FY11 FY12 FY12 FY13 FY13 FY14 FY14 FY15 FY15 FY16 FY16 FY17 FY17 FY18 FY18 FY19 FY19 FY20 FY20 FY21 FY21 FY22E FY22E FY24E FY24E FY23E FY23E EBITDA (Rs mn) - LHS EBITDA M (%) - RHS Adj. Net Profit (Rs mn) - LHS Growth YoY (%) - RHS Source: DART, Company Source: DART, Company Execution timeline of current Order Stock is trading at a 1-Yr fwd PE of 19x backlog 200 35 40 30 28 170 25 26 30 23 140 23 20 18 110 15 16 20 13 80 10 8 50 10 5 FY22E FY23E FY24E Beyond FY24E Aug/06 Aug/11 Aug/17 Aug/05 Aug/07 Aug/08 Aug/09 Aug/10 Aug/12 Aug/13 Aug/14 Aug/15 Aug/16 Aug/18 Aug/19 Aug/20 Aug/21 Executable order value (Rs bn) Aug/04 Execution rate (%) (RHS) 1 Yr Forward P/E Average P/E SD+1 SD-1 Source: DART, Company Source: DART, Company September 05, 2021 3 Bharat Electronics Solidifying its presence in Defence To capitalize on the traction seen in the defence environment, BHE is focusing on increasing interaction levels and developing long-term relationships with emerging Strategic Partners, users, and other key stakeholders in the Indian defence industry. In addition to its existing defence offerings, the company intends to capitalize on opportunities in the upcoming Defense & Aerospace sectors. Some of the new areas of defence that are being focused on include: Unmanned Systems Migration from Manned system to Unmanned system in military applications has led to a traction in UAV segment. BHE has been addressing the UAV/UGV/UUV/USV requirements of the Indian Defence / Non-Defence segments by partnering with DRDO / foreign OEMs/ Indian Academia/ Start-ups etc.
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