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COAL in Equity 01Oct20 CU India Equity Research Metals & Mining October 1, 2020 COAL INDIA ANNUAL REPORT INSIGHTS KEY DATA Black diamond: Value at core Rating BUY Sector relative Price (INR) 116 12 month price target (INR) 165 We analysed Coal India’s FY20 annual report. Three points stand out: Market cap (INR bn/USD bn) 715/9.7 i) Larger subsidiaries outscore on profitability, productivity and Free float/Foreign ownership (%) 31.0/8.6 What’s Changed technological absorption. ii) Development of evacuation infrastructure Target Price ⚊ to handle 1bn tonnes of coal by FY24 is underway. iii) Working capital Rating/Risk Rating ⚊ unlocking might release cash in the near to medium term. INVESTMENT METRICS 60 Meanwhile, contingent liabilities, legacy issues at ECL and BCCL, and 35 diversification into unrelated fields are key overhangs. Furthermore, 10 -15 potential wage escalation may keep earnings growth muted. That said, -40 an undemanding valuation and attractive dividend yield are Sales Growth EPS Growth RoE PE (%) (%) (%) (x) formidable anchors. Retain ‘BUY’ with a TP of INR165 (7.2x FY22E EPS). Metals & Mining COAL IN Equity FINANCIALS (INR mn) Larger subsidiaries remain key Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E We find that SECL, MCL and NCL continue to be key to CIL’s performance, accounting Revenue 9,60,803 8,58,634 9,20,232 10,21,944 for 66% of production and 76% of PBT. The company’s performance slipped in FY20, EBITDA 2,19,209 1,43,395 1,78,838 1,85,597 Adjusted profit 1,67,142 1,07,066 1,35,483 1,33,043 mainly due to non-execution of key contracts at MCL and weather-related Diluted EPS (INR) 27.1 17.4 22.0 21.6 disruptions at SECL. FY21 to date, MCL and NCL have fared better than other EPS growth (%) 23.3 (35.9) 26.5 (1.8) subsidiaries. Besides, these two subsidiaries outclass peers on both profitability and RoAE (%) 57.0 31.7 35.1 29.8 productivity. Hence, we expect MCL and NCL to provide a leg-up to CIL’s FY21 P/E (x) 4.7 7.3 5.8 5.9 financial performance. EV/EBITDA (x) 2.6 3.8 2.6 2.1 Dividend yield (%) 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 Evacuation infrastructure to complement production ramp-up We are upbeat about CIL’s focus on developing evacuation infrastructure; it is PRICE PERFORMANCE imperative to meet the FY24 production target of 1bn tonnes. While seven railway lines are crucial, we would also emphasise the importance of 35 First Mile 200 42,000 180 38,600 Connectivity (FMC) projects—they would not only reduce reliance on road transport, 160 35,200 but also improve mechanisation and reduce the carbon footprint. 140 31,800 120 28,400 Execution of evacuation infrastructure projects is taking place mostly near MCL’s and 100 25,000 SECL’s large mines, wherein evacuation is a constraint. In our view, this Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 infrastructure will complement the 52 capacity enhancement projects currently COAL IN Equity Sensex underway. Outlook and valuation: Attractive dividend play Explore: In our view, evacuation infrastructure and production capacity enhancement provide long-term comfort on CIL’s earnings growth. Furthermore, we do not believe merchant mines would affect CIL’s market share materially. In the near term though, contingent liabilities—particularly relating to income tax—and environmental issues remain the key overhangs. We also do not view diversification into urea production Financial model Podcast as prudent capital allocation, and remain circumspect of its benefits. That said, there’s value beneath the surface: i) an undemanding valuation at 5.8x FY22E EPS that implies deep discount to CIL’s own trading average and that of peers’; and ii) a mouth-watering dividend yield: 12% at the CMP. The sustainability of yield Corporate access Video is least of concerns as CIL should continue to generate sufficient cash even after meeting its capex needs. Maintain ‘BUY/SO’ with a TP of INR165 at 7.2x FY22E EPS. Amit Dixit Meera Midha +91 (22) 6620 3160 +91 (22) 4088 5804 [email protected] Meera.Midha@edelweissfin. com Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson FirstCall, Reuters and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited COAL INDIA Financial Statements Income Statement (INR mn) Balance Sheet (INR mn) Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Total operating income 9,60,803 8,58,634 9,20,232 10,21,944 Share capital 61,627 61,627 61,627 61,627 Raw Material Cost 60,836 52,834 68,398 71,817 Reserves 2,59,942 2,93,055 3,54,586 4,13,676 Employee costs 3,93,841 3,89,372 3,87,425 4,57,162 Shareholders funds 3,21,569 3,54,683 4,16,213 4,75,303 Other expenses 1,01,473 86,667 97,205 1,02,065 Minority interest 3,941 3,941 3,941 3,941 EBITDA 2,19,209 1,43,395 1,78,838 1,85,597 Borrowings 64,260 64,260 64,260 64,260 Depreciation 34,508 39,769 46,245 53,800 Trade payables 1,01,076 87,598 1,05,216 1,10,477 Less: Interest expense 5,029 4,092 4,092 4,092 Other liabs & prov 3,06,125 3,06,125 3,06,125 3,06,125 Add: Other income 61,054 45,150 54,584 52,083 Total liabilities 14,67,105 15,30,333 16,59,885 17,77,159 Profit before tax 2,40,713 1,44,684 1,83,086 1,79,788 Net block 3,67,455 3,97,686 4,61,441 5,07,641 Prov for tax 73,710 37,618 47,602 46,745 Intangible assets 953 953 953 953 Less: Other adj 0 0 0 0 Capital WIP 82,711 82,711 82,711 82,711 Reported profit 1,67,142 1,07,066 1,35,483 1,33,043 Total fixed assets 4,51,119 4,81,350 5,45,105 5,91,305 Less: Excp.item (net) 0 0 0 0 Non current inv 18,732 18,732 18,732 18,732 Adjusted profit 1,67,142 1,07,066 1,35,483 1,33,043 Cash/cash equivalent 2,85,465 3,16,534 3,92,835 4,75,215 Diluted shares o/s 6,163 6,163 6,163 6,163 Sundry debtors 1,44,082 1,46,767 1,38,665 1,25,993 Adjusted diluted EPS 27.1 17.4 22.0 21.6 Loans & advances 11,412 11,412 11,412 11,412 DPS (INR) 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Other assets 4,00,548 3,99,790 3,97,388 3,98,755 Tax rate (%) 30.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 Total assets 14,67,105 15,30,333 16,59,885 17,77,159 Important Ratios (%) Free Cash Flow (INR mn) Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E EBITDA (INR/t) 472.1 341.9 391.8 388.2 Reported profit 1,67,142 1,07,066 1,35,483 1,33,043 Staff Costs (% of sales) 41.0 45.3 42.1 44.7 Add: Depreciation 34,508 39,769 46,245 53,800 Output (t/worker) 2,192.0 2,145.9 2,416.9 2,671.3 Interest (net of tax) 5,029 4,092 4,092 4,092 EBITDA margin (%) 22.8 16.7 19.4 18.2 Others (2,40,799) 46,308 1,50,157 1,28,709 Net profit margin (%) 17.4 12.5 14.7 13.0 Less: Changes in WC 1,95,047 15,405 (28,122) (16,566) Revenue growth (% YoY) (3.5) (10.6) 7.2 11.1 Operating cash flow 41,465 1,75,022 2,60,253 2,56,333 EBITDA growth (% YoY) 3.8 (34.6) 24.7 3.8 Less: Capex 56,445 70,000 1,10,000 1,00,000 Adj. profit growth (%) 23.3 (35.9) 26.5 (1.8) Free cash flow (14,980) 1,05,022 1,50,253 1,56,333 Assumptions (%) Key Ratios Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E GDP (YoY %) 4.8 (6.0) 7.0 6.0 RoE (%) 57.0 31.7 35.1 29.8 Repo rate (%) 4.4 3.5 3.5 4.0 RoCE (%) 55.8 26.5 30.1 26.4 USD/INR (average) 70.7 75.0 73.0 72.0 Inventory days 366 455 343 324 Production (mT) 602.2 560.0 599.2 629.2 Receivable days 38 62 57 47 Sales (mT) 581.8 546.9 585.1 614.4 Payable days 586 652 514 548 FSA Volumes (mT) 501.0 452.4 500.0 521.9 Working cap (% sales) 12.0 15.3 11.2 8.5 e-Auction (mT) 65.4 82.6 70.1 74.4 Gross debt/equity (x) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 FSA Realisation (INR/t) 1,538.0 1,472.9 1,504.3 1,590.4 Net debt/equity (x) (0.7) (0.7) (0.8) (0.9) e-Auction Premium (%) 41.6 14.1 23.2 23.2 Interest coverage (x) 0 0 0 0 Valuation Metrics Valuation Drivers Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Diluted P/E (x) 4.7 7.3 5.8 5.9 EPS growth (%) 23.3 (35.9) 26.5 (1.8) Price/BV (x) 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.6 RoE (%) 57.0 31.7 35.1 29.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 2.6 3.8 2.6 2.1 EBITDA growth (%) 3.8 (34.6) 24.7 3.8 Dividend yield (%) 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 Payout ratio (%) 44.2 69.1 54.6 55.6 Source: Company and Edelweiss estimates 2 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson FirstCall, Reuters and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited COAL INDIA Coal India FY20 annual report: 13 key points Our analysis is based on the review of annual reports and financial statements of all the eight subsidiaries except NECL.
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