Mississippi Fact Sheet

Population Growth, Millennials, Brain Drain, and the Economy

A Report to the Governor

Dr. Mimmo Parisi Professor of Demography Department of Sociology Mississippi State University

January 19, 2018 2017 Population Growth by the Numbers

Population growth depends on multiple factors that includes Population Growth = (Births-Deaths) + (Net Domestic Migration + Net numbers of births and deaths, net International Migration) domestic migration, and net international migration. How each factor contributes to population Population Growth = (37,373 – 30,875) + (-9,885 + 2,087) growth must be seen in relation to the others. All factors must be Population Growth = 6,498 – 7,798 examined together to provide an accurate picture of any population Population Growth = -1,300 estimate. Also, all factors must be seen in the context of national trends to fully understand the magnitude of their impact on a given state. The estimates presented in the following slides provide detailed information on each factor that contributes to population growth, along with information on millennials, brain drain, and overall state economic indicators.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017. https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/ 3 Mississippi Population, 2000-2017

The estimates for 2016 and 2017 indicate that the population declined by 1,300. This decline is within the estimation margin of error and it will be revised next year, therefore this number needs to be interpreted cautiously. It also means that there has been no substantive decline in total population. The only conclusion one can draw from these estimates is that the Mississippi total 3,000,000 2,988,578 population has remained fairly stable. 2,982,963 2,985,415

2,970,437 2,987,721 2,985,297 2,984,115 2,977,452 2,947,806 2,950,000 2,958,774

2,928,350 2,904,978

2,900,000 2,889,010 2,905,943

2,858,681 This begs the question: why is the population not growing? The answer lies in two

Population 2,848,353 2,868,312 important factors. First, the state experienced a dramatic decline in births as a 2,850,000 result of aggressive policies to reduce teenage pregnancy. These numbers are 2,852,994 reported in slides 5-7. The population is also not growing because Mississippi is not a new Hispanic destination. In fact, the state experienced the least positive net international migration. These numbers are reported in slides 9-12. If Mississippi had not experienced a reduction in numbers of births and had experienced the 2,800,000 same level of international in-migration as other states, Mississippi’s total population would have continued to grow. Another key factor is that only a few counties experience a significant negative net domestic migration (see slide 12).

2,750,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017. https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/ 4 Births by the Numbers Annual Number of Births, 2011-2017

40,000 39,746 39,500 39,430

39,000 38,715 38,578 38,500 38,505

38,000 37,951 37,373 37,500 Overall Decline: -2,373 37,000

36,500

36,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year

An important factor that needs to be accounted for in the population growth is the number of births. Mississippi experienced a declining annual number of births. As a result, Mississippi’s total population would have had a net positive growth if the number of births would have remained the same since 2011. Other indicators suggest that the decline in birth stems primarily from a strong policy to reduce teen pregnancy. These numbers are presented in the next two slides.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/demo/popest/state-total.html 6 Mississippi Teenage Pregnancy Rate

5.00

4.50 4.30 4.10 4.07 4.06 3.89 3.90 4.00 3.82 3.63 3.64 3.55 3.34 3.50 3.01 3.00 2.74 2.52 2.50 2.25 2.03 1.92 2.00

1.50 Teenage Pregnancy Rate Pregnancy Teenage 1.00

0.50

0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year

Compared to the nation, Mississippi experienced one of the fastest reductions in teenage pregnancy. The teen pregnancy rate declined by 361 percent since 2000.

Source: Mississippi State Department of Health, Vital Statistics Bureau, 2017. https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/31,0,75.html 7 Birth Events of Female Mississippi Public School Students in Grades 6-12 by Abstinence Education Curriculum Type

4.00

3.50 3.37

3.00

2.50 Statewide: 1.9 2.00 1.68 1.77

1.50 Percent That Experienced Birth Event

1.00

0.50

0.00 Abstinence-only Abstinence-plus No abstinence education Curriculum Type

Mississippi has adopted an aggressive abstinence program by providing two types of curriculum. Official statistics from the Department of Health show that these programs had a significant impact on reducing teen pregnancy in the K12 system.

Source: Mississippi LifeTracks, 2016. https://www.lifetracks.ms.gov/RequestAnalysis/ResearchStudies.aspx 8 Migration by the Numbers Net Domestic Migration, 2016-2017 Florida 160,854 Texas 79,163 North Carolina 66,051 Washington 64,579 Arizona 63,111 South Carolina 49,015 Georgia 41,107 Tennessee 40,232 Nevada 38,227 Oregon 37,975 Colorado 36,653 Idaho 24,597 Utah 17,568 Montana 8,666 Minnesota 7,941 Maine 5,376 Arkansas 4,718 Mississippi is not the only New Hampshire 4,687 Delaware 4,484 state to have a negative net Alabama 3,840 South Dakota 1,976 domestic migration. There are District of Columbia 1,152 Kentucky 1,024 27 states that have Vermont -918 experienced negative net Indiana -976 Missouri -1,050 domestic migration, and

State Wis cons in -2,086 Iowa -2,724 Mississippi does not have one Nebraska -3,493 Rhode Island -3,854 of the largest declines. The North Dakota -6,653 New Mexico -7,437 takeaway from this graph is Ohio -8,205 Wyoming -8,613 that Mississippi is in line with Mississippi -9,885 Alaska -9,938 national trends. Oklahoma -10,470 West Virgini a -10,507 Virginia -12,395 Michigan -12,698 Hawaii -13,537 Kansas -14,150 Connecticut -22,270 Massachusetts -23,089 Maryland -23,984 Pennsylvania -25,793 Louisiana -27,515 New Jersey -57,274 Illinois -114,779 California -138,195 New York -190,508 -250,000 -200,000 -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Domestic Migration

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017. https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/ 10 Net International Migration, 2016-2017

California 164,867 Florida 144,165 New York 130,411 Texas 110,417 New Jersey 56,942 Massachusetts 45,298 Pennsylvania 37,389 Illinois 33,699 Virginia 33,365 Maryland 29,031 Washington 25,984 Georgia 25,870 Michigan 23,179 Ohio 22,131 North Carolina 20,162 Connecticut 17,758 Minnesota 16,460 Arizona 16,205 Indiana 11,410 Tennessee 10,469 Negative domestic migration Colorado 9,973 is typically counterbalanced by Wis cons in 8,268 Missouri 8,076 international migration, which Nevada 7,957 Oregon 7,712 is mostly comprised of Asians Louisiana 7,696

State Oklahoma 7,322 and Hispanics. Unlike other Kentucky 7,014 Iowa 6,836 states, Mississippi is not a Hawaii 6,703 Kansas 6,198 new Hispanic destination. The South Carolina 5,447 Utah 5,019 state ranks as one of the Nebraska 4,853 Rhode Island 4,798 lowest in the country. Alabama 4,475 District of Columbia 4,160 Arkansas 3,499 New Mexico 2,771 Delaware 2,722 New Hampshire 2,236 Mississippi 2,087 Idaho 1,928 Maine 1,578 Alaska 1,557 North Dakota 1,489 South Dakota 1,273 Vermont 933 West Virgini a 867 Wyoming 328 Montana 296 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 International Migration Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017. https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/ 11 Domestic Migration: Gain and Loss to Other States 2016-2017 Moving To Mississippi Moving out of Mississippi

Mississippi Population Net Gain or Loss to Other States Mississippi also experienced a Like other states, Mississippi gains positive net migration from 11 and loses population to other states states. More people came to in the union. The migration flow is Mississippi from Illinois, Louisiana not unidirectional, where people Michigan, New York, and West simply leave, but rather bidirectional, Virginia than residents moving from where some move out and some Mississippi to each of these states. move in. These flows are reported in the top two maps, and clearly In contrast, 70 percent of the total suggest that many people see negative net migration resulted Mississippi as a place to live and from more people moving from work. Mississippi to Texas, Florida, Georgia, and Alabama, than residents from these states moving Source: Internal Revenue Service, SOI Tax Stats - Migration Data – 2015-2016. to Mississippi . https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/1516ms.xls 12 Who Gains and Who Loses in Mississippi, 2016-2017

Moving from Other States Moving Out of MS Counties to MS Counties To Other States

Mississippi County Population Net Gain or Loss to Other States

Each county experienced residents moving in from other states, but also residents 87 percent of the total population loss in moving out to other states. Migration flows the state comes from a few counties, with are state processes that touch all of the Hinds county experiencing the largest loss counties in the state, with some gaining followed by Lauderdale, Oktibbeha, and some losing population. Eight Forrest, Washington, Harrison, and counties have gained population, with Lowndes counties. Desoto, Hancock, and Pearl River counties experiencing the largest gains.

Source: Internal Revenue Service, SOI Tax Stats - Migration Data – 2015-2016. https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/1516ms.xls 13 Millennials by the Numbers Share of Millennials (Ages 16-35) in State Population

District of Columbia 37.8 Utah 30.6 North Dakota 30.1 Alaska 29.0 Texas 28.7 California 28.7 Colorado 28.5 New York 28.0 Massachusetts 28.0 Rhode Island 27.9 Louisiana 27.9 Oklahoma 27.5 Washington 27.4 Georgia 27.4 Illinois 27.3 Nebraska 27.2 Kansas 27.2 Nation 27.1 Wyoming 27.0 Mississippi 27.0 When we look at the total Indiana 27.0 Arizona 27.0 share of the millennial Virginia 26.9 Oregon 26.8 population, Mississippi is Nevada 26.8 Iowa 26.8 right on the national New Mexico 26.7 State Minnesota 26.7 average, suggesting that Maryland 26.7 Missouri 26.6 the state’s millennial Idaho 26.6 population is stable. Arkansas 26.5 Tennessee 26.4 South Dakota 26.4 Alabama 26.4 Michigan 26.3 Wis cons in 26.2 Kentucky 26.2 Pennsylvania 26.1 Ohio 26.1 Vermont 26.0 South Carolina 26.0 North Carolina 26.0 Connecticut 26.0 Delaware 25.9 Montana 25.8 New Jersey 25.7 Hawaii 25.4 New Hampshire 25.2 Florida 24.9 West Virgini a 24.4 Maine 23.6 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 Percent Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2017 https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t 15 Millennials, Generation X, and Baby Boomers

Estimates on migration flow from the American Community Survey indicate that millennials have the least negative net outmigration in the state. Millennials (17-35) 18% This is consistent with current literature suggesting that millennials are not as mobile as other generations. The estimates from the American Community Survey indicate that the largest negative net outmigration in the state are experienced by people in the age group of 35-50, commonly known as Generation X (35-50) with their Children 82% Generation X. Estimates from the American Community Survey also indicate that baby boomers experience a positive net in 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% migration, suggesting that this age group are growing in the state.

Source: American Community Survey, 2017. 16 College Educated Millennials Leaving State of Residence

Alaska 23% District of Columbia 18% Wyoming 16% Idaho 15% Vermont 14% North Dakota 14% Rhode Island 14% Montana 13% New Hampshire 13% Utah 12% New Mexico 11% Hawaii 11% Virginia 11% South Dakota 11% Nevada 11% Iowa 11% Connecticut 11% Delaware 11% Kansas 10% Estimates from the American Maine 10% South Carolina 10% Community Survey indicate that Nation 10% Mississippi 10% Mississippi, like the rest of the Indiana 10% Maryland 10% nation, experiences a 10 percent West Virgini a 10% Missouri 10% outmigration of college educated State Oregon 9% Alabama 9% millennials. Mississippi Wis cons in 9% Oklahoma 9% population patterns for its Nebraska 9% North Carolina 9% millennials are no different than Colorado 9% Georgia 9% the national trends. Kentucky 9% Arizona 8% Massachusetts 8% Pennsylvania 8% Arkansas 8% Michigan 8% New Jersey 8% Tennessee 8% Washington 7% Ohio 7% Florida 7% Illinois 7% Minnesota 7% New York 6% Louisiana 6% Texas 5% California 4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Percent

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2017. https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t 17 Brain Drain by the Numbers Students Working in Mississippi Within 1 Year of Graduating A large majority of our students in the two and four year college systems choose to live and work in the state. In contrast, a very small 90% number of our out-of-state students choose to live and work 81% in the state. This is consistent with 80% 78% 74% the estimates on migration 69% patterns reported by the American 70% Community Survey. The state experienced a average annual net 60% growth of more than 4,000 individuals aged 18-19. The 50% American Community survey also indicates that this net gain is 40% counterbalanced by the loss of these students once they Percent Employed Percent 30% graduate.

19% 20%

10%

0% Community College Community College Community College University In-S tate University Out-of-State Associate of Arts Associate of Applied Certificate Science

Source: Institutions of Higher Learning Study, 2017; Mississippi State Longitudinal Data System, 2017. 19 In-State and Out-of-State Enrollment Growth

70,000

65,000

60,000

55,000

50,000 45,000

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

In-State Out-of-State

Over the last 10 years, the number of out-of-state students has grown at a faster rate than in-state students.

Source: Institutions of Higher Learning Study, 2017; Mississippi State Longitudinal Data System, 2017. 20 Out-of-State Enrollment at Mississippi IHL Universities

UM 44.38

MSU 33.64

ASU 24.24 This graph reports percentage

JSU 23.39 of university total enrollment made up of out-of-state students. Ole Miss and MVSU 22.81 Mississippi State are the universities that attract more US M 20.88 out-of-state students.

DSU 17.17

UMMC 15.25

MUW 14.75

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 Percent

Source: Institutions of Higher Learning Study, 2017; Mississippi State Longitudinal Data System, 2017. 21 Economic Indicators by the Numbers Annual Covered Employment, 2000-2017

1,150,000

1,140,000 1,136,706 1,135,336 1,128,924 1,130,000 1,122,474 1,131,096 1,120,000 1,114,379 1,124,854

1,110,000 1,104,225 1,105,915 1,111,255 1,111,269 1,100,000 1,093,581 1,102,603 1,081,138 Jobs 1,090,000 1,096,802

1,076,488 1,080,000 1,085,748

1,070,000 1,074,617 1,060,000

1,050,000

1,040,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year

Estimates from BLS indicate that the number of people employed is reaching pre-recession numbers. The state is only 6,400 shy of pre-recession numbers. Typically, the state enters recessions one year later, and the recovery is also delayed one year relative to the national trends. As a result, the number employed is expected to grow for the next few years.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2017. https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv 23 Average Annual Wages Adjusted for Inflation (Constant 2017 Dollars)

$42,000

$41,000 $40,532

$39,706 $40,000 $39,518 $39,659 $39,327 $39,134 $39,071$39,153$39,018$39,026$39,111 $38,779 $39,000 $38,475 $37,983 $38,000 $37,434 $37,117 $36,788 $37,000 $36,497

$36,000 Average Annual Pay (2017 Dollars) Annual Average $35,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year

Estimates from BLS indicate that wages, adjusted for inflation, have grown over the last 17 years. These estimates are based on 2017 constant dollars.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2017. https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv 24 Mississippi General Fund Contributions

Individual Income Tax Sales Tax $1,900,000,000 $2,100,000,000

$1,800,000,000 $2,050,000,000

$2,000,000,000 $1,700,000,000 $1,950,000,000 $1,600,000,000 $1,900,000,000 $1,500,000,000 $1,850,000,000 $1,400,000,000 $1,800,000,000 $1,300,000,000 General Fund Dollars Fund General Dollars Fund General $1,750,000,000 $1,200,000,000 $1,700,000,000

$1,100,000,000 $1,650,000,000

$1,000,000,000 $1,600,000,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year Year

Contributions of income and sales tax to the general fund have experienced upward trends over the last 10 years. Individual income tax has shown an increase in tax payers, and the increase in sales tax shows an increase in disposable income as the result of real wage increases.

Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue, 2017. http://www.dor.ms.gov/Statistics/Pages/default.aspx 25