Mississippi Fact Sheet Population Growth, Millennials, Brain Drain, and the Economy A Report to the Governor Dr. Mimmo Parisi Professor of Demography Department of Sociology Mississippi State University January 19, 2018 2017 Population Growth by the Numbers Population growth depends on multiple factors that includes Population Growth = (Births-Deaths) + (Net Domestic Migration + Net numbers of births and deaths, net International Migration) domestic migration, and net international migration. How each factor contributes to population Population Growth = (37,373 – 30,875) + (-9,885 + 2,087) growth must be seen in relation to the others. All factors must be Population Growth = 6,498 – 7,798 examined together to provide an accurate picture of any population Population Growth = -1,300 estimate. Also, all factors must be seen in the context of national trends to fully understand the magnitude of their impact on a given state. The estimates presented in the following slides provide detailed information on each factor that contributes to population growth, along with information on millennials, brain drain, and overall state economic indicators. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017. https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/ 3 Mississippi Population, 2000-2017 The estimates for 2016 and 2017 indicate that the population declined by 1,300. This decline is within the estimation margin of error and it will be revised next year, therefore this number needs to be interpreted cautiously. It also means that there has been no substantive decline in total population. The only conclusion one can draw from these estimates is that the Mississippi total 3,000,000 2,988,578 population has remained fairly stable. 2,982,963 2,985,415 2,970,437 2,987,721 2,985,297 2,984,115 2,977,452 2,947,806 2,950,000 2,958,774 2,928,350 2,904,978 2,900,000 2,889,010 2,905,943 2,858,681 This begs the question: why is the population not growing? The answer lies in two Population 2,848,353 2,868,312 important factors. First, the state experienced a dramatic decline in births as a 2,850,000 result of aggressive policies to reduce teenage pregnancy. These numbers are 2,852,994 reported in slides 5-7. The population is also not growing because Mississippi is not a new Hispanic destination. In fact, the state experienced the least positive net international migration. These numbers are reported in slides 9-12. If Mississippi had not experienced a reduction in numbers of births and had experienced the 2,800,000 same level of international in-migration as other states, Mississippi’s total population would have continued to grow. Another key factor is that only a few counties experience a significant negative net domestic migration (see slide 12). 2,750,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017. https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/ 4 Births by the Numbers Annual Number of Births, 2011-2017 40,000 39,746 39,500 39,430 39,000 38,715 38,578 38,500 38,505 38,000 37,951 37,373 37,500 Overall Decline: -2,373 37,000 36,500 36,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year An important factor that needs to be accounted for in the population growth is the number of births. Mississippi experienced a declining annual number of births. As a result, Mississippi’s total population would have had a net positive growth if the number of births would have remained the same since 2011. Other indicators suggest that the decline in birth stems primarily from a strong policy to reduce teen pregnancy. These numbers are presented in the next two slides. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/demo/popest/state-total.html 6 Mississippi Teenage Pregnancy Rate 5.00 4.50 4.30 4.10 4.07 4.06 3.89 3.90 4.00 3.82 3.63 3.64 3.55 3.34 3.50 3.01 3.00 2.74 2.52 2.50 2.25 2.03 1.92 2.00 1.50 Teenage Pregnancy Rate Pregnancy Teenage 1.00 0.50 0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year Compared to the nation, Mississippi experienced one of the fastest reductions in teenage pregnancy. The teen pregnancy rate declined by 361 percent since 2000. Source: Mississippi State Department of Health, Vital Statistics Bureau, 2017. https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/31,0,75.html 7 Birth Events of Female Mississippi Public School Students in Grades 6-12 by Abstinence Education Curriculum Type 4.00 3.50 3.37 3.00 2.50 Statewide: 1.9 2.00 1.68 1.77 1.50 Percent That Experienced Birth Event 1.00 0.50 0.00 Abstinence-only Abstinence-plus No abstinence education Curriculum Type Mississippi has adopted an aggressive abstinence program by providing two types of curriculum. Official statistics from the Department of Health show that these programs had a significant impact on reducing teen pregnancy in the K12 system. Source: Mississippi LifeTracks, 2016. https://www.lifetracks.ms.gov/RequestAnalysis/ResearchStudies.aspx 8 Migration by the Numbers Net Domestic Migration, 2016-2017 Florida 160,854 Texas 79,163 North Carolina 66,051 Washington 64,579 Arizona 63,111 South Carolina 49,015 Georgia 41,107 Tennessee 40,232 Nevada 38,227 Oregon 37,975 Colorado 36,653 Idaho 24,597 Utah 17,568 Montana 8,666 Minnesota 7,941 Maine 5,376 Arkansas 4,718 Mississippi is not the only New Hampshire 4,687 Delaware 4,484 state to have a negative net Alabama 3,840 South Dakota 1,976 domestic migration. There are District of Columbia 1,152 Kentucky 1,024 27 states that have Vermont -918 experienced negative net Indiana -976 Missouri -1,050 domestic migration, and State Wis cons in -2,086 Iowa -2,724 Mississippi does not have one Nebraska -3,493 Rhode Island -3,854 of the largest declines. The North Dakota -6,653 New Mexico -7,437 takeaway from this graph is Ohio -8,205 Wyoming -8,613 that Mississippi is in line with Mississippi -9,885 Alaska -9,938 national trends. Oklahoma -10,470 West Virgini a -10,507 Virginia -12,395 Michigan -12,698 Hawaii -13,537 Kansas -14,150 Connecticut -22,270 Massachusetts -23,089 Maryland -23,984 Pennsylvania -25,793 Louisiana -27,515 New Jersey -57,274 Illinois -114,779 California -138,195 New York -190,508 -250,000 -200,000 -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Domestic Migration Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017. https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/ 10 Net International Migration, 2016-2017 California 164,867 Florida 144,165 New York 130,411 Texas 110,417 New Jersey 56,942 Massachusetts 45,298 Pennsylvania 37,389 Illinois 33,699 Virginia 33,365 Maryland 29,031 Washington 25,984 Georgia 25,870 Michigan 23,179 Ohio 22,131 North Carolina 20,162 Connecticut 17,758 Minnesota 16,460 Arizona 16,205 Indiana 11,410 Tennessee 10,469 Negative domestic migration Colorado 9,973 is typically counterbalanced by Wis cons in 8,268 Missouri 8,076 international migration, which Nevada 7,957 Oregon 7,712 is mostly comprised of Asians Louisiana 7,696 State Oklahoma 7,322 and Hispanics. Unlike other Kentucky 7,014 Iowa 6,836 states, Mississippi is not a Hawaii 6,703 Kansas 6,198 new Hispanic destination. The South Carolina 5,447 Utah 5,019 state ranks as one of the Nebraska 4,853 Rhode Island 4,798 lowest in the country. Alabama 4,475 District of Columbia 4,160 Arkansas 3,499 New Mexico 2,771 Delaware 2,722 New Hampshire 2,236 Mississippi 2,087 Idaho 1,928 Maine 1,578 Alaska 1,557 North Dakota 1,489 South Dakota 1,273 Vermont 933 West Virgini a 867 Wyoming 328 Montana 296 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 International Migration Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017. https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/ 11 Domestic Migration: Gain and Loss to Other States 2016-2017 Moving To Mississippi Moving out of Mississippi Mississippi Population Net Gain or Loss to Other States Mississippi also experienced a Like other states, Mississippi gains positive net migration from 11 and loses population to other states states. More people came to in the union. The migration flow is Mississippi from Illinois, Louisiana not unidirectional, where people Michigan, New York, and West simply leave, but rather bidirectional, Virginia than residents moving from where some move out and some Mississippi to each of these states. move in. These flows are reported in the top two maps, and clearly In contrast, 70 percent of the total suggest that many people see negative net migration resulted Mississippi as a place to live and from more people moving from work. Mississippi to Texas, Florida, Georgia, and Alabama, than residents from these states moving Source: Internal Revenue Service, SOI Tax Stats - Migration Data – 2015-2016. to Mississippi . https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/1516ms.xls 12 Who Gains and Who Loses in Mississippi, 2016-2017 Moving from Other States Moving Out of MS Counties to MS Counties To Other States Mississippi County Population Net Gain or Loss to Other States Each county experienced residents moving in from other states, but also residents 87 percent of the total population loss in moving out to other states.