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Konsekvenser Och Lärdomar Av Det Rysk-Georgiska Kriget I Augusti 2008

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Konsekvenser Och Lärdomar Av Det Rysk-Georgiska Kriget I Augusti 2008 Det kaukasiska lackmustestet: Konsekvenser och lärdomar av det rysk-georgiska kriget i augusti 2008 Det kaukasiska lackmustestet Det kaukasiska lackmustestet Den ryska politiken mot Kaukasien, speciellt Georgien, har under lång tid utgjort en prisma i vilken karaktären på den ryska utrikes- och säkerhetspolitiken kunnat beskådas. Detta gäller såväl historiskt som ROBErt L. LArssoN (RED.), ALEXANDER AtARODI, EVA HAGstrÖM FRISELL, JAkoB HEDENskoG, det krig som varade 7-12 augusti 2008, med Georgien på ena sidan och med Ryssland och den georgiska JERKER HEllstrÖM, JAN KNOPH, VILHELM KONNANDER, JAN LEIJONHIELM, DAVID LINDAHL, separatistregionen Sydossetien på den andra. FREDRIK LINDVALL, JOHANNES MALMINEN, INGMAR OLDBERG, FREDRIK WEstERLUND, MIKE WINNErstiG Rysk politik mot Kaukasien är dock inte bara ett lackmustest för vilken väg Ryssland går. För Ryssland är denna och en rad andra incidenter även lackmustest för vad man kan göra utan att omvärlden reagerar på ett sätt som hindrar upprepat agerande. Kriget aktualiserade därför en rad frågor som i flera fall är av betydligt större dignitet än såväl Sydossetiens framtid som den rysk-georgiska konflikten. Syftet med föreliggande studie är därför att analysera centrala aspekter av kriget med tonvikt på ryskt agerande. Målet är att dra att antal tentativa slutsatser om vilka konsekvenser kriget får för regionen och för omvärlden, samt vilka lärdomar man kan förmodas dra på ömse sidor i konflikten. Ett resultat är att den ryska hållningen utgör en direkt utmaning mot den rådande världsordningen i termer av normsystem, samarbetsformer och värdegrunder. Den ryska inmarschen i Georgien var på många sätt en förlängning på den politik man redan fört och där väpnade insatser mot Georgien frekvent förekom. Signalerna fanns där, men omvärlden reagerade inte. Den explicita utmaningen påvisar en ny fas i rysk utrikespolitik, en fas där man går från en ambition att influera till att vilja kontrollera. Ryssland har haft en rad valmöjligheter och utfallet av dessa val är att Ryssland vill gå sin egen väg och använda sig av ett eget regelverk i sina internationella relationer. Det är en manifestation av att Moskva anser att den unipolära Robert L. Larsson m.fl världsordningen nu är avskaffad – vilket är en seger för rysk politik. Detta kommer att leda till omvälvande policyförändringar och åtgärder från omvärlden. Ett grundproblem är att de mekanismer och internationella fora som funnits för att hantera säkerhetspolitiska frågor, till exempel olika rustningskontrollavtal, FN:s säkerhetsråd och Nato-Rysslandsrådet, har blockerats efter Georgienkriget. Dessutom belyser utmaningen Världssamfundets problem med att hantera en ökad grad av statskapitalism och globaliseringsaversion bland stormakterna. Klart är dock att det finns direkta kopplingar mellan lokala problem, säkerhetspolitik och den internationella politiska ekonomin. De svar . som Rysslands vägval tvingar fram påverkar den nya världsordningens karaktär och funktionssätt, inte minst för EU och Nato, men hur detta kan komma att ske är en öppen fråga. FOI är en huvudsakligen uppdragsfinansierad myndighet under Försvarsdepartementet. Kärnverksamheten är forskning, metod- och teknikutveckling till nytta för försvar och säkerhet. Organisationen har cirka 1000 anställda varav ungefär 800 är forskare. Detta gör organisationen till Sveriges största forskningsinstitut. FOI ger kunderna tillgång till ledande expertis inom ett stort antal tillämpningsom- råden såsom säkerhetspolitiska studier och analyser inom försvar och säkerhet, bedömning av olika typer av hot, system för ledning och hantering av kriser, skydd mot och hantering av farliga ämnen, IT-säkerhet och nya sensorers möjligheter. FOI Totalförsvarets forskningsinstitut Tel: 08-55 50 30 00 www.foi.se FOI-R--2563--SE Underlagsrapport Försvarsanalys Försvarsanalys Fax: 08-55 50 31 00 164 90 Stockholm ISSN 1650-1942 September 2008 Robert L. Larsson (red.), Alexander Atarodi, Eva Hagström Frisell, Jakob Hedenskog, Jerker Hellström, Jan Knoph, Vilhelm Konnander, Jan Leijonhielm, David Lindahl, Fredrik Lindvall, Johannes Malminen, Ingmar Oldberg, Fredrik Westerlund, Mike Winnerstig Det kaukasiska lackmustestet Konsekvenser och lärdomar av det rysk-georgiska kriget i augusti 2008 FOI-R-2563-SE Titel Det kaukasiska lackmustestet: konsekvenser och lärdomar av det rysk-georgiska kriget i augusti 2008 Title The Caucasian Test Case: Consequences and Lessons Learned of the Russian-Georgian War in August 2008 Rapportnr/Report no FOI-R-2563-SE Rapporttyp Underlagsrapport Report Type Base data report Månad/Month September 2008 Utgivningsår/Year 2008 Antal sidor/Pages 155 p ISSN Kund/Customer Forskningsområde 1. Analys av säkerhet och sårbarhet Programme area 1. Security, safety and vulnerability analysis Delområde 19 Breda projekt inom säkerhet och sårbarhet Subcategory 19 Interdisciplinary Projects regarding Security, Safety and Vulnerability Analysis Projektnr/Project no I1616 Godkänd av/Approved by Sara Gullbrandsson FOI, Totalförsvarets Forskningsinstitut FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency Avdelningen för Försvarsanalys 164 90 Stockholm SE-164 90 Stockholm FOI-R-2563-SE Sammanfattning Kriget mellan Georgien och Ryssland i augusti 2008 har i grunden förändrat spelplanen för internationella relationer och efterspelet kommer att få stora efterdyningar på en rad områden. Syftet med föreliggande studie är att analysera ett antal centrala aspekter och konsekvenser av kriget. Målet är att snabbt samla ihop ett öppet källmaterial för att dra ett antal tentativa slutsatser om vad kriget kan leda till för regionen och för omvärlden. Den viktigaste övergripande slutsatsen är att Rysslands agerande har tvingat fram en långtgående omvärdering av den rådande världsordningen. Detta kommer att leda till omvälvande policyförändringar och åtgärder på olika nivåer för att aktörerna skall kunna hantera den nya världsordning som nu snabbt håller på att utmejslas. Världssamfundets problem och utmaningar har hamnat i blixtbelysning, och de svar som tvingas fram av Rysslands vägval ger en tidig indikation på den nya världsordningens karaktär och funktionssätt. Nyckelord: Ryssland, Georgien, Sydossetien, Abchazien, OSS, USA, Kina, Japan, Mellanöstern, Nato, EU, FN, folkrätt, säkerhetspolitik, krig, militära insatser, ekonomi, energi, strategi, geopolitik, internationella relationer 3 FOI-R-2563-SE Summary The war between Georgia and Russia in August 2008 has fundamentally changed the playing field of international relations and the aftermath of the war will have profound consequences. The purpose of this study is to analyze some central issues and implications of the war. The aim is to, shortly after the war and based on open sources material, draw some tentative conclusions regarding the consequences for the region and the world. The primary conclusion is that Russia’s actions have triggered a far-reaching reassessment of the present world order. This will in turn lead to extensive policy changes at different levels as the actors adapt and try to influence the formation of the new world order. The war has laid bare the challenges and problems of the present international system. Responses to Russia’s actions will give an early indication of the character and modus operandi of the coming world order. Keywords: Russia, Georgia, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, CIS, United States, China, Japan, Middle East, EU, UN, international law, security policy, war, military operations, economy, energy, strategy, geopolitics, international relations 4 FOI-R-2563-SE Förord Kaukasiens olösta konflikter har under mycket lång tid utgjort en krutdurk som vid flera tillfällen lett till lokala skärmytslingar och regional spänning. I samband med detta krig framgick relativt snabbt att effekterna av kriget och agerandet hos inblandade aktörer skulle få konsekvenser långt utanför Kaukasien, inte minst på grund av Rysslands roll. FOI satte därför samman en analysgrupp med representanter från flera avdelningar och discipliner som fick i uppdrag att analysera centrala aspekter av kriget. I och med att studien har flera författare, och tillkommit på kort tid, är kapitlen inte är helt samstämmiga i vare sig stil eller innehåll. Författarna ansvarar själva för bedömningarna och slutsatserna i respektive kapitel. Ingen ensning i bedömning i de enskilda kapitlen har utförts och analysen är inte heller FOI:s uppfattning som myndighet. Studien utgör dock en mycket viktigt utgångspunkt för kommande verksamhet eftersom den ringar in mycket av den problematik som bland andra Sverige och EU kommer att behöva hantera under 2009 då Sverige är ordförandeland i EU. Författarna, som har haft huvudansvar för sina respektive områden, även om vissa överlappningar förekommer, inkluderar Alexander Atarodi (Mellanöstern), Eva Hagström Frisell (EU/Europa), Jakob Hedenskog (OSS/Ukraina/Moldavien/ MAP), Jerker Hellström (Kina/Japan), Jan Knoph (Folkrätt), Vilhelm Konnander (informationskriget), Robert Larsson (Georgien/energi), Jan Leijonhielm (rysk ekonomi), David Lindahl (IT-tekniska aspekter), Fredrik Lindvall (USA/Nato/strategi), Johannes Malminen (internationell ekonomi), Ingmar Oldberg (Ryssland/OSS), Fredrik Westerlund (militärtaktik/operativa aspekter), Mike Winnerstig (USA). Även andra personer har bidragit konstruktivt under arbetets gång, bland andra Bo Ljung, Robert Dalsjö, John Rydqvist och Jan Frelin. Redaktör har varit Robert Larsson och rapporten har granskats av Niklas Granholm. Sara Gullbrandsson Områdeschef, 10 september 2008 5 FOI-R-2563-SE Innehåll FÖRORD...................................................................................................................
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