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Edmonton, AB Retail Q4 2017

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MARKETBEAT Edmonton, AB Retail Q4 2017 ECONOMIC INDICATORS Retailers have responded with increased leasing activity and sales volumes through the final two quarters of 2017. Rents have National 12-Month also seen a general increase in the past two quarters as retailers 2016 2017F Forecast seek newer or better located space in a competitive market, GDP Growth 1.5% 2.6%* especially as several new developments located on the periphery CPI Growth 1.4% 2.0%* of Edmonton continue construction. Podium spaces in new Consumer Spending developments downtown have generally been filled, although 2.4% 3.1%* Growth some options remain for motivated tenants seeking a high Retail Sales Growth 1.7% 2.3%* visibility and high traffic location. A notable trend towards more restaurants, both quick service and sit-down options, entering the downtown area is noticeable. A significant number of fitness 12-Month Regional 2016 2017F Forecast tenants have also been moving into high profile spaces Household Income $104,750 $107,470* throughout the city. Population Growth 1.8% 1.6%* High profile mixed-use developments on Whyte Avenue are Unemployment 8.1% 6.8%* underway, as well as several newer projects downtown which are expected to have retail podiums. Densification efforts along Sources: RBC Economics, TD Economics, Finance Ministry of Alberta *2017 several high streets in Edmonton, including Whyte and Jasper Forecast Avenues and 124th Street, will make these areas more attractive for retailers. Housing starts have picked up over the past year, a good sign for community retail developers and tenants seeking Economy entry into those markets. The City of Edmonton experienced a stronger than anticipated Retail investment remains a mainstay of the Edmonton recovery over the past year. Growth is expected to moderate commercial real estate market, as an estimated $259 million in towards 2.4% in 2018, lower than 2017 but higher than most other retail assets exchanged hands in the third and fourth quarters of provinces. However, sensitivity to oil prices will continue to weigh 2017. High profile sales include Baseline Village in Sherwood on Albertan industry and limit overall growth. The unemployment Park at $85,000,000 and Whitemud Crossing in Edmonton at rate in the Edmonton region has dropped quarter-over-quarter to $26,500,000. 7.5%, investment in local industry has increased, and oil recently surpassed the $60 mark for the first time since 2014, likely Outlook remaining at least in the mid-$50 range on average through 2018. Improving oil prices usually bring an increase to investment and Non-residential construction spending, muted in 2017, is expected development within the Edmonton marketplace. We expect to remain weak. construction on retail properties to remain consistent in response Source: City of Edmonton, Finance Ministry of Alberta to ongoing low vacancy and investment interest in retail assets. Although there will be a significant amount of new retail space Market Overview entering the market in the coming year, most of it will have been Edmonton’s retail market has been buoyed through the second pre-leased prior to the completion of the development. Rents half of 2017 by a stronger than expected economic recovery. correspondingly will remain stable on average through 2018, a Rising wages and increased employment in the waning months of result of competition for in-demand retail space and newer, the year have driven increased consumer demand. Record-setting higher quality assets entering the market. spending has been recorded in Alberta as recently as October A major new category of interest in the coming year will be retail 2017, when retailers reached $6.8 billion in sales. Strong tenants related to the burgeoning marijuana sector. The wholesale figures and increasing bar and restaurant receipts regulatory framework for this industry will also be an interesting reinforce the image of Edmonton as a strong retail market with a development to follow. Tenants in this industry will be seeking stable consumer base. out a wide variety of retail space so as to cover as much of the market as is viable, including more mature, less in-demand retail assets. We expect a strong response from the market. www.cwedm.com MARKETBEAT Edmonton, AB Retail Q4 2017 Key Lease Transactions Q4 2017 PROPERTY SF TENANT TRANSACTION TYPE SUBMARKET Westmount Mall 27,000 Crunch Fitness Lease Northwest Kingsway Mall 26,060 Marshalls Lease Northwest 124th Street Property 24,500 Evolve Fitness Lease Northwest Kingsway Mall 23,543 Homesense Lease Northwest Kingsway Mall 23,497 H&M Expansion Northwest West Edmonton Mall 17,500 Crunch Fitness Lease Northwest SouthPark 16,000 Goodwill Lease Southwest The Shops of Granville 9,032 Tim Hortons, Edo, Coco Chicken, Good Buddy, etc Lease Southwest Key Sales Transactions Q4 2017 PROPERTY SF SELLER/BUYER PRICE / $PSF SUBMARKET SRF2 Baseline Road Northwest Inc. / 222 & 223 Baseline Baseline Village 229,661 $85,000,000 / $370 Sherwood Park Road Inc. Whitemud G.P. Ltd. / Whitemud 106 GP Ltd. Whitemud Crossing 93,339 $26,500,000 / $284 Southwest Canadian Property Holdings (Alberta) Inc / Anthem St. Albert Square 58,316 $15,800,000 / $271 St. Albert Crestpoint St. Albert Square Ltd Daly Grove G.P. Ltd. / Elite Real Estate Investments Daly Grove Shopping Centre 38,704 $13,800,000 / $414 Southeast Strategic Edmonton Ltd / 1994677 Alberta Ltd Abbottsford Shoppers Mall 178,840 $13,500,000 / $75 Northeast Key Properties Under Construction PROPERTY (Developer) SF* MAJOR TENANTS PROPERTY TYPE SUBMARKET Currents of Windermere 1,200,000 Walmart, Cabela’s, Home Depot Regional Centre Southwest Manning Town Centre & Village 850,000 Canadian Tire, Lowe’s, Cabela’s Regional Centre Northeast Erin Ridge Shopping Centre 480,971 Costco, Lowe’s Regional Centre St. Albert Albany Market Square 407,000 Walmart Regional Centre Northeast Harvest Pointe Shopping Centre 375,000 Walmart, Sobeys Regional Centre Southeast Heritage Valley Shopping Centre 303,472 Superstore, Shoppers Regional Centre Southwest Brewery District 310,000 MEC, Shoppers, Goodlife, Winners Community Centre Central Ice District 300,000 Cineplex, Joey, Rexall Entertainment District Central Tamarack Southeast, North and Northeast (Dream) 185,125 Shoppers, Sportchek, Michaels Community Centre Southeast Windermere Crossing 160,000 Superstore Community Centre Southwest Newcastle Centre 147,390 Sobeys, LA Fitness Community Centre Northwest Tamarack Common (Qualico) 114,000 Sobeys, RBC, Browns Socialhouse Community Centre Southeast Griesbach Village 110,622 Shoppers Drug Mart Community Centre Northwest Jensen Lakes Crossing 104,999 Landmark Cinemas Regional Centre St. Albert Edgemont (Qualico) 91,320 Sobeys Community Centre Southwest *Square footage represents full development build out, includes some partially completed developments and those with CRUs under construction. About Cushman & Wakefield Cushman & Wakefield Edmonton For more information, contact: Cushman & Wakefield is a leading global real estate services firm with 45,000 employees in more than 70 countries helping occupiers and investors optimize the value of their real estate. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest commercial real estate Suite 2700 TD Tower Retail Team services firms with revenue of $6 billion across core services of agency leasing, asset services, capital markets, facility services 10088 – 102 Avenue Tel: +1 780 420 1177 (C&W Services), global occupier services, investment & asset management (DTZ Investors), project & development services, tenant representation, and valuation & advisory. To learn more, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com or follow @CushWake on Twitter. Edmonton, AB, T5J 2Z1 Fax: +1 780 424 9780 www.cwedm.com [email protected] Copyright © 2018 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources considered to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy..
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