Cheltenham School District Enrollment Projections
Cheltenham School District Enrollment Projections
Prepared By The Montgomery County Planning Commission
November, 2016
Board of School Directors
William England, President Stephanie H. Gray, Vice President David L. Cohen Joel I. Fishbein Julie Haywood Brian Malloy Jean McWilliams Napoleon Nelson David M. Rackow
Superintendent Dr. Wagner Marseille
Table of Contents
Introduction ...... 1
Summary of Key Findings ...... 3 School District Characteristics Population ...... 5
Birth Patterns ...... 7
School District Enrollment ...... 9
Alternative School Enrollment...... 11 Housing Activity Impacts of Housing on Enrollment ...... 15
Housing Units Built ...... 17
Housing Units Proposed ...... 19
Housing Sales ...... 21 District Enrollment Projections Cohort Progression Model...... 25
Projected Enrollment Summaries ...... 29
Indicators of Projection Change...... 33
School Profiles ...... 37
CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT
Introduction the housing bubble burst and the recession hit are ramping up again and may come to fruition in the School districts can only plan for their future if they future. have some idea of what that future will entail. The This report gives an overview of the population and number of students that will need to be served by housing characteristics within the Cheltenham School district facilities is the key variable that must be District (CSD) in order to establish the conditions understood in order to make prudent decisions. that have formed the most recent enrollment trends. The housing market has improved over the last three Future enrollments will depend largely upon the years, and development proposals are on the rise following factors: again. Mature suburbs like Cheltenham are seeing renewed developer interest. Denser housing types Recent and future births such as multifamily and townhomes are also being Housing construction sought in addition to the still dominant single family Moves in and out of the school district detached homes in Cheltenham. Some proposals or interest in sites that may have been suspended after Private, charter, home, and cyber school growth The following study employs the use of a Cohort Progression Model to account for the above factors and form projections for each grade level over the next ten years. No model is perfect when it comes to predicting the future, but given the right data, an accurate projection for the next five years is expected. Projections should not be considered a final product with the completion of the model. Additional data and analysis, including housing and population forecasts, characteristics of households by housing types, geographic mobility by age cohorts, and housing sales activity, are also presented in this study to provide a useful context with the projections. These important data points should be reviewed every year to determine if unanticipated activity is occurring and how that might influence the projections and actual enrollments down the line.
1 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
FIGURE 1: District School Locations and Boundary Areas
Jenkintown Abington
COTTMAN AVE MT CARMEL AVE TOWNSHIP LINE RD
RICES MILL RD
GLENSIDE AVE CENTRAL AVE CENTRAL
LIMEKILN PIKE Elkins Park CEDAR RD CEDAR n School n RD EASTON Cheltenham ASHMEAD RD Glenside n ASHBOURNE RD Wyncote Cheltenham CHURCH RD ES ES n ES
NEW SECOND ST
GREENWOODAVE
309 Cheltenham Myers FRONT ST FRONT
Springfield ¤£ n HS n ES
LIMEKILN PIKE WASHINGTON LN WASHINGTON Cedarbrook OGONTZn AVEMS
CHELTENHAM AVE TOOKANY CREEK PKWY Philadelphia
Cheltenham ES Myers ES Wyncote ES Glenside ES 0 0.25 0.5 1 Miles
´ 2 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT
public school students are resulting from this The middle school and high school levels are Summary of Key Findings turnover and an increase in sales will likely going to experience variable growth over the The general trend in future enrollments for the bring younger households into the area. next ten years with all grade levels (5-12) Cheltenham School District calls for an increase of experiencing net positive growth by 2026. The over 2% in the next ten years, but that could climb as Projections amount of housing construction will also high as 8.5% if birth activity increase and all influence enrollment at these levels although the prospective development comes to fruition. Birth A cohort progression model has been prepared and effect will be lesser than at the elementary activity should increase due to more adults aging into presented as three scenarios, or options. The first, school due to fewer actual grades and the the most popular child-bearing years. The following Option 1, is really a base scenario using existing potential for younger families in newer units. factors are determining this forecast: trends and estimated birth activity to determine Births in the CSD have been low in recent years where enrollment is headed. The second, Option 2, with one exception, the 2014-15 year. A more anticipates an increase in birth activity that will result robust kindergarten class may result in the 2020- in larger kindergarten classes over the second half of 21 school year as a result, but preceding years the study period (years 6 through 10). The third, are not expected to change substantially in size. Option 3, includes increased birth activity and addresses future residential development that will Births should begin rising over the next five increase enrollment through the creation of more years, which will affect the second half of this households. This study recommends that Option 3 is study period. As the Millennial generation the most likely future regarding enrollments, but that moves into child-bearing years, the county and it ultimately depends on the outcome of potential township will see an increase in the age cohort development projects. of 25-34 year old females through 2025. Enrollment has been variably growing over the last Private school enrollment from students living in decade, but mild increases in construction, birth the district has decreased from 10 years ago, but activity, housing sales, and students coming out of remained relatively stable in the last 5. denser residential developments will expand that Several properties have been identified as growth over the next five years. We expect growth supporting potential residential construction over to continue over the second five year period as well, the next ten years. Only a couple are considered although the rate will slow down. Each of the “very likely” for the near term, but even if only district’s four grade distributions will grow, but in these are developed, the impact on school very different manners. Middle levels will grow enrollment will outpace the recent trend level of most during the first five years, while the elementary construction. Other properties may also and high school level will see its growth occur during eventually be developed, and they would bring the second five years. more growth. The elementary school will actually decline over Existing multifamily buildings have been the next few years before new housing brings it providing more students over the last five years back up to current levels. This is due to the and will continue to provide more students. The upcoming departures of some historically high rental market is hot and provides a lower barrier class sizes and smaller kindergarten classes of entry into a quality school district. replacing them. However, by 2020, new Residential sales activity has gone up over the construction and greater birth activity will spur last five years in the district but still falls just growth of around 100 students during the next below levels seen before the recession. More six years.
3
School District Characteristics Part 1
CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT
School District Characteristics Population Census Bureau indicate that the population is on track to reach its projection for 2020. The general population within the Cheltenham Population School District declined by 80 residents from 2000 to The general expectation for the immediate future is 2010. This reversed the growth trend from the prior for only slight growth as households continue to Birth Patterns decade where the Township saw a gain of almost churn, but when new construction takes place over 2,000 people. Little new development and the the next five years it should provide a further boost. housing market bubble prior to the recession helped However, it is important to recognize that population School District Enrollment totals do not necessarily reflect changes in the to account for the stagnation along with a decrease in average household size for the township. numbers of school-age children or public school Alternative School Enrollment enrollment figures. While the population will grow Trends are changing for inner suburbs like within the district, shifts in the age cohorts within Cheltenham in Montgomery County. Regional that population can have distinct effects on the projections are calling for the population to continue numbers of school age children in the future. growing at a rate of 1.9% over the current decade through 2020. Current population estimates from the
FIGURE 2: Population of Cheltenham School District, 1980-2020
38,000
37,500
37,000
36,500
36,000
35,500
35,000
34,500
34,000
33,500 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 (projected)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, except 2020 Projections (DVRPC and MCPC)
5 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
FIGURE 3: Population Totals, 1990-2020 1990 2000 2010 2020 (Forecasted) 1980-1990 1980-1990 1990-2000 1990-2000 2000-2010 2000-2010 2010-2020 2010-2020 Total Change Percent Total Change Percent Total Change Percent Total Change Percent CSD 34,923 -586 -1.7% 36,875 1,952 5.6% 36,793 -80 -0.2% 37,512 717 1.9% Montgomery County 678,111 34,740 5.4% 748,987 70,876 10.5% 799,874 50,887 6.8% 841,067 41,193 5.1%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, except 2020 Forecasts (DVRPC and MCPC)
years. The effect is that there may be fewer children Age Cohorts and School Age Children snapshot supports the recent growth experienced by the District. per household as these people age, but that effect will Age data from the last three decennial censuses also be countered by seniors moving to other types of reveal patterns in how the demographics of the The adult age cohorts show that the population aged 45-54 years old has waned somewhat since large housing or downsizing, providing opportunities for Cheltenham School District have changed, but note younger families to move in. that these figures include all children, not just public growth in the 1990’s. However, there was significant school students. The cohort that best represents growth of the 55-64 year old population and this age The remaining ages between the previously school age children is the 5-17 year old group. This group along with the 45-54 year old group roughly mentioned cohorts, the 18-44 year old population, cohort decreased by almost 14% over the last decade, account for the baby boomers, which is why places also grew over the last decade as a whole. However, which roughly corresponds to a similar rate of like the Cheltenham District and Montgomery it was the lowest cohort range, 18-24, that saw the decline for the District’s public school enrollment County are said to be home to an aging population. only actual increase in number from their place the over that time. The younger cohort, 0-4 year olds These people may still have children in their decade prior. It should be noted that the location of a (pre-school age), increased from 2000 to 2010. This households or have seen them move out in recent number of institutions of higher education could skew this cohort group’s population number within Cheltenham Township. Overall, these people are of FIGURE 4: Age Cohorts, Cheltenham School District, 1990-2010 child-bearing age and a continued increase may 1990 2000 2010 herald a period of higher birth activity, which can ultimately result in more students enrolling for 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 school six years later. Age Cohort Total Change Total Change Total Change
0-4 2,095 540 1,886 -209 1,937 51 This shifting of age cohorts over time is only one 5-17 5,138 -611 6,517 1,379 5,630 -887 part of the picture when it comes to explaining and 18-24 2,873 -1071 3,144 271 4,709 1,565 predicting what will happen with school enrollment, 25-34 4,744 149 4,264 -480 4,095 -169 but it is a good place to start when considering why enrollments cycle up and down over time. 35-44 5,406 1,726 5,304 -102 4,189 -1,115 45-54 3,763 -610 5,493 1,730 5,329 -164 55-64 3,900 -960 3,394 -506 4,972 1,578 65-74 3,804 -107 3,042 -762 2,701 -341 75 and over 3,200 358 3,831 631 3,231 -600 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
6 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT
School District Characteristics Birth Patterns the 2008-09 and 2014-15 year, birth totals have The number of births in an area is a critical hovered around 330 going back to 2007-08. The Population component to projecting future enrollment in a lower birth activity has already had some affect on school district. While some families will migrate recent kindergarten grade sizes and may continue to over time, births provide a beginning indicator of the influence the level of the youngest new students Birth Patterns starting school in the District, but that 2014-15 bump potential size of future kindergarten classes. This relationship will be detailed in the cohort progression should boost the 2020-21 kindergarten class size. School District Enrollment model (p. 25), but it is important to note that birth This trend of birth activity has run somewhat similar
data can give a preview of what will happen with to what has been observed in most other districts and Alternative School Enrollment entering students over the first five years of the the county in general. Countywide, birth totals projection period. Also note that annual birth totals began declining in 2009 and dropped each year since are aligned to match the school calendar year then until finally going up again in 2014. The (September—August) in order to make the most countywide downturn may be due in some part to the accurate correlations to future kindergarten classes. downturn in the economy starting with the Great The trend for live births since 2000 in the Recession in 2008. Logically, it would make sense Cheltenham School District shows that births have for some to defer or delay decisions to have children been generally lower over the last six years as based on economic uncertainty in one’s life. Some opposed to the previous nine. With the exception of studies have looked at national population bases,
FIGURE 5: Number of Live Births in Cheltenham SD by School Calendar Year (Sept.-Aug.)
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Source: Pennsylvania Department of Health
7 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS both the United States and globally, and determined cohorts, sometimes known as “millennials” will be will still likely impact the number of 25-34 year olds that overall fertility rates do decline with downturns aging into higher fertility rates. This data suggests in Cheltenham even if they are not the same residents in the economy. that on a purely demographic basis, births should that lived there as 15-24 year olds. Looking ahead, there may be another more tangible begin trending upwards again. Birth Rates factor that can be attributed to expected changes in Of course, the actual 15-24 year olds living in Birth rates are a different statistic than live births. birth patterns—the population of child-bearing age Cheltenham at the time of the data collection are An increase or decrease in actual births could be women. According to the Pennsylvania Department going through an extreme period of flux as many of explained by concurrent growth or decline in the of Health, birth activity is at its highest when them graduate high school and go to college, or population base, but birth rates average out the potential mothers are between the ages of 25-34. otherwise move out of their parents’ homes. In number of live births per 1,000 persons in an area. Figure 7 identifies age cohorts for females of child- addition, this cohort may be more represented in The statistics in Figure 8 confirm that birth rate bearing age in Cheltenham. The population of Cheltenham, temporarily, due to the location of a activity in the Cheltenham School District has been women in that age group increased from 2,173 in number of universities within its borders. Many lower since 2006, although it has typically been well 2000 to 2,188 in 2010. Additionally, females within things may happen to prevent them from becoming a below the countywide rate in all respects. the age 15-24 groups increased by 400 in 2010. 25-34 year old resident of Cheltenham. However, Looking out to 2020, the bubble in the younger the bubbles in the so-called baby boomers and millennials also exist at the county and regional FIGURE 6: Number of Live Births in CSD by levels. The general increase in people of that age School Calendar Year (Sept.-Aug.) FIGURE 8: Birth Rates (Births Per 1,000 Popula- FIGURE 7: Females of Child-Bearing Age tion) in CSD by Calendar Year (Jan.-Dec.) in CSD, 2000 and 2010 School Year CSD Montgomery Calendar Year CSD County 2000-01 405 Age Cohort 2000 Females 2010 Females 2004 9.6 12.3 2001-02 371 15 – 19 1,703 1,488 2005 11.3 12.1 2002-03 366 20 - 24 1,393 2,008 2006 10.2 12.3 2003-04 373 25 - 29 1,297 1,141 2007 9.8 11.9 2004-05 380 30 - 34 876 1,047 2008 9.8 12.1 2005-06 408 35 - 39 1,321 1,088 2009 9.6 11.7 2006-07 372 40 -44 1,224 1,138 2010 9.0 11.4 2007-08 344 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2011 8.7 11.2 2008-09 380 2012 9.2 11.0 2009-10 305 2013 9.3 10.7 2010-11 336 2014 9.0 10.8 2011-12 336 2015 9.9 10.8 2012-13 340 Sources: Pennsylvania Department of Health, U.S. Census Bureau 2013-14 328 2014-15 374 Source: Pennsylvania Department of Health
8 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT
School District Characteristics School District Enrollment years, with the last year showing a decline of 3 students. However, the junior high and senior high District enrollment had declined by nearly 900 Population school levels show a different pattern. The junior students over the decade before the 2009-10 school high levels (5-6 and 7-8) have been highly variable year which is when enrollment started to rise again. the last ten years but trending upwards while the high Birth Patterns Enrollment since then has risen consistently. This school level (9-12) has generally declined over the pattern reflects a recent history of variable growth in same period. The concurrent increases in the School District Enrollment communities that have been mature or mostly built youngest grades with smaller levels still at the upper out for some time, yet still see occasional grades is an indication that overall growth in Alternative School Enrollment redevelopment projects and sporadic infill. enrollment should continue in the near term as the However, the growth experienced in the most recent larger classes progress through the system. Unless school year, 83 students in 2016-17, constitutes one other factors such as greater birth activity make an of the largest gains over the last ten years. The impact, the elementary classes may stabilize while question to be answered by this study is whether junior high and senior high levels continue to grow enrollment will continue to moderately increase, or is as those existing larger class sizes enter the upper a greater trend of growth just getting underway. grade levels. The first place to look for that answer comes from breaking down the figures by general school levels as indicated in Figure 9. The elementary school level (grades K-4) show consistent growth over the last ten
FIGURE 9: School District Enrollment by Grade Divisions, 2007-2016
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200 K-4 1,000 5-6 800 7-8 600 9-12 400
200
0 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Source: Cheltenham School District (enrollment as of October 1 each year)
9 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
FIGURE 10: District Enrollment by Division, 2007-2016
Total Number Change Percent Change Year K-12 from Previous Year from Previous Year Grade K-4 Grade 5-6 Grade 7-8 Grade 9-12 2007-08 4,365 1,486 665 659 1,555 2008-09 4,264 -101 -2.3% 1,483 647 654 1,480 2009-10 4,348 84 2.0% 1,537 657 696 1,458 2010-11 4,443 95 2.2% 1,567 707 690 1,479 2011-12 4,458 15 0.3% 1,619 651 719 1,469 2012-13 4,503 45 1.0% 1,656 659 740 1,448 2013-14 4,561 58 1.3% 1,702 709 677 1,473 2014-15 4,565 4 0.1% 1,729 685 685 1,466 2015-16 4,535 -30 -0.7% 1,768 683 718 1,366 2016-17 4,618 83 1.8% 1,765 723 692 1,438
Source: Cheltenham School District (enrollment as of October 1 each year)
FIGURE 11: District Enrollment by Grade, 2007-2016
Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2007-08 264 275 322 329 296 344 321 333 326 385 361 408 401 2008-09 280 271 281 314 337 294 353 318 336 367 410 311 392 2009-10 309 327 287 293 321 344 313 360 336 384 384 375 315 2010-11 291 321 342 309 304 335 372 329 361 387 371 355 366 2011-12 320 311 322 342 324 306 345 390 329 421 352 362 334 2012-13 315 330 329 329 353 339 320 354 386 434 346 327 341 2013-14 356 334 352 328 332 358 351 333 344 426 354 355 338 2014-15 337 367 336 350 339 336 349 356 329 399 388 327 352 2015-16 314 350 389 345 370 348 335 357 361 346 348 353 319 2016-17 308 338 355 398 366 368 355 344 348 373 341 340 384
Source: Cheltenham School District (enrollment as of October 1 each year)
10 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT
School District Characteristics Other School Enrollment these times show a disparity between the numbers and real enrollment data. It is likely that some Potential alternative schooling choices include decline occurred between the last half of ‘00 decade Population private schools, charter schools, and homeschooling. and recent years. It is logical to think that the Enrollment in these schools are enumerated from downturn in the economy and consolidations within several data sources and do not always have a Birth Patterns the Catholic churches may have combined to consistent historical record. Further confusing influence the decline. The trend in other comparable matters is that charter schools are also considered School District Enrollment districts has been for fewer private school students public schools. over the decade. Private Schools Other School Enrollment The Cheltenham School District also keeps data on The U.S. Census Bureau and its American residents that attend private school through its Community Survey (ACS) provides some monitoring of district bus records, which includes comprehensive data on public versus private school public and private school students. However, the enrollment, which is probably the most data is incomplete as it only recognizes students who straightforward assessment of trends. However, are using the district’s public buses. The available these figures are estimates with a margin of error and bus data, as shown in Figure 13, goes back to the they rely upon the accuracy of individuals filling out 2010-11 school year. This data suggests that private questionnaires. Figure 12 shows the available data school enrollment has increased slightly in recent that can be compared from the Census and ACS. years. An improving economy and growing The data indicates that recent private school population could account for some of this growth. enrollment is well below what it was back in 2000. Also, the unexpected closing of Cedarbrook Middle An interim measure taken from 2006-2010 shows School and subsequent grade shifting may have had that a majority of the decline was seen during the an affect on private school enrollment. decade before. Assessing the limitations of both data sources leads These figures must be taken with reservation due to to the conclusion that the Cheltenham District may the potential margin of error involved with the ACS. Public school figures taken from the ACS during FIGURE 13: Private School Enrollment According to CSD Bus Records* FIGURE 12: Private School Enrollment According to U.S. Census Bureau School Year Private School Students Private School 2010-11 578 Year Students Dataset 2011-12 602 Census 2000, 2012-13 610 2000 1216 Summary File 3 ACS, 5 Year Es mates, 2013-14 630 2010* 845 2006-2010 2014-15 616 ACS, 5 Year Es mates, 2015-16 632 2014* 671 2010-2014 Source: Cheltenham School District Bus Records * 5 Year Estimates from the ACS are an average of 5 years worth * Only recognizes private school students that opt for CSD bus of sampling data transportation.
11 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS not be in a radical state of change with regards to private school attendance. However, it does appear to be less strong than it was ten years ago prior to the economic and housing market troubles. The District may see private school numbers climb a little bit in the coming years if the economy continues to improve, but the expected impact on public school attendance is accounted for by the most recent trends. Charter Schools Charter schools are still considered public in that they usually have free tuition and are funded with public dollars. However, they are independently operated and students are not considered in the district enrollment figure. Cyber charter schools have also become an option for some students. Cyber charter schools are a form of home-based virtual charter schools. These types of schools are relatively new options in the area, first appearing about ten years ago. According to the Cheltenham School District, there were only 77 students living in the district in 2014-15 that enrolled in charter or cyber charter schools. This number has declined from a peak of 83 students the prior year.
FIGURE 14: Other Alternative Schooling Options
School Year (Cyber) Charter School 2010-11 51 2011-12 63 2012-13 71 2013-14 83 2014-15 77
Source: Cheltenham School District
12 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT
13
Housing Activity Part 2
CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT
Housing Activity Impacts of Housing on Enrollment (bottom of Figure 15). Unfortunately, there were not enough new developments in the Cheltenham School Impacts of Housing on Enrollment School Age Children by Housing Type District to develop local representative figures for any The average number of school age children in a of the housing types. The CSD data shows that Housing Units Built residential unit depends on the type of unit. MCPC existing single family detached homes were nearly just as likely to have school age children as attached reviews the latest census data and compares it to county property records as part of its report titled, homes. This is different than what is observed, on Housing Units Proposed “Characteristics of the Population in New and average, in Montgomery County. The CSD and Existing Housing Units.” The latest report, based on countywide data for existing multi-family housing Housing Sales the 2010 Census, contains the average number of differ significantly in that Cheltenham has a higher school age children in single family detached, ratio of students in these developments than the attached (townhomes and twins), and multifamily average county municipality. Note that the factors (apartments or multiple units in a structure) housing derived in Figure 15 account for all school age types. The data is also analyzed in terms of new and children, not just public school students. existing units. The countywide results of the study The housing adjustment in Part Three of this study (top of Figure 15) show that a newly constructed uses a combination of countywide and local factors to single family detached home is over 15 times more make estimates on the impact of new construction for likely to contain a school age child than multifamily most housing types. units. The difference is less stark when considering only existing units, but there are clearly more Multifamily Housing Analysis children found in detached units than in multifamily The district’s student records from 2009-10, 2012-13, and attached units. and 2015-16 were compared to the addresses of all multifamily developments with 10 or more units in We isolated data from the report to just focus on Cheltenham. The results shown in Figures 16 housing within the Cheltenham School District
FIGURE 15: Average Number of School Age Children by Housing Unit Type
Montgomery County
Single Family Detached Single Family A ached Mul family School Age Children per Household in Exis ng Units 0.55 0.41 0.18 School Age Children per Household in New Units 0.93 0.21 0.06
Cheltenham Township School District Single Family Detached Single Family A ached Mul family School Age Children per Household in Exis ng Units 0.51 0.52 0.28 School Age Children per Household in New Units N/A N/A N/A Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission & 2010 US Census
15 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
FIGURE 16: Actual CSD Data for Multifamily FIGURE 17: Impact of Housing Units Sold on FIGURE 18: Select Age Cohorts in CSD Area Developments with 10 or More Units Enrollment Households Related to Geographic Mobility Cheltenham Year SD Students Units Student / Unit Year of Housing Units Sold 2013 2015 Persons in households Percent of 2009-10 776 4,792 0.16 Number of Exis ng Units Sold 356 430 that have moved within Persons in Persons in the last year Households Households 2012-13 920 4,792 0.19 Incoming Students at Address of People Age 1-4 287 6.1% 2015-16 982 4,792 0.20 Units Sold 61 93 People Age 5-17 600 12.8% Note: Only includes public students and ratio is based on units, Outgoing Students at Address of not households. Units Sold 43 51 Peope Age 25-34 944 20.2% Source: CSD Records and MCPC analysis Net Change in Students from Total People 4,677 100% indicate that the number of public school children Sales Ac vity +18 +42 coming from multifamily developments has been Source: CSD Records, MCPC Median Price Sales Reports Persons in households Percent of increasing since at least 2009. that have remained in Persons in Persons in The added students are essentially all coming from 2013 to 2015. This data supports the general belief the same house Households Households that as more housing units turn over, younger older developments built before 1990. This trend of People Age 1-4 1,342 4.2% increasing public school students out of existing families enter the district and an increase in school multifamily buildings is expected to continue beyond age children is eventually felt. People Age 5-17 5,147 16.1% current levels. However, the District is likely to see A set of data from the American Community Survey People Age 25-34 3,212 10.0% much lower student enrollment from newer adds another wrinkle to the issue. The ACS offers Total People 32,045 100% multifamily construction if and when it occurs in the data on geographic mobility of households and the future. See Figure 36 on page 35 for a full listing of age composition of those households. Figure 18 Source: American Community Survey, 2010-2014 Estimates the properties studied in this analysis and their shows a breakdown of households that have student/unit rates. remained within the same house as the year prior and Migration of Households households that have moved within the last year. This latter group would constitute the characteristics The connection between new housing units and new of people who are purchasing homes or moving into population is fairly clear, although it also depends on rental units. the type of units. The impact of household movement in and out of existing housing units is a less certain The results show that the percentage of school age connection, but it is still incorporated into the cohort children is lower in homes that are occupied by a progression model. It would be useful to look at sales different household than the year before, but the data of homes and come to an understanding of what missing component is that we don’t know who the might happen with school age children where sales new households are replacing. activity increases for one reason or another. The more useful piece of this data is found in the age Analysis using county housing sales data and district 25-34 cohort, who are the most likely to conceive enrollment records was conducted to identify public children. The percent of persons in households that school students that lived in homes prior to being sold have moved is 20.2%, as opposed to only 10% in and students that lived in a home after it was sold. households that have remained in the same place. A The results in Figure 17, show that while the number household that has just moved into a home in the of housing units sold increased, the net gain in public district is more likely to contain 25-34 year olds, students resulting from sales also increased from therefore increasing the likelihood that new children will be born into the district.
16 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT
Housing Activity Housing Units Built of only 28 units per year. Almost all of those units were infill construction of single family attached and Impacts of Housing on Enrollment Residential construction activity in Montgomery multi-family units. The net impact on school age County hit historic lows since around 2008 after the children, based on these housing types, averages out housing market bubble burst and the Great Recession Housing Units Built to approximately 5 children per year. This baseline is followed. The Cheltenham School District was less used to determine what additional impact will be affected since it is a largely built out community that caused by future development should it outpace the Housing Units Proposed mostly features redevelopment and small infill previous construction rates. projects. Figure 19 shows that single family The map in Figure 21 on the following page shows Housing Sales detached construction has accounted for a negligible the most recent developments in the Cheltenham amount of new construction within the district in the School District, recognizing all units built from 2011 past ten years. The remaining construction is spread through 2015. over a few developments. In recent years the two developments to account for the most units delivered to the district are the 55 unit multi-family “1600 Church Road” and the 198 unit single family attached “Reserve at Wyngate.” If we exclude the age-restricted “Samuel A. Green House” development in 2011, the last five years of housing construction in the District shows an average
FIGURE 19: Housing Units Built in the CSD by Housing Type, 2006-2015
120
100
80
60
40
20
0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Single Family Detached Single Family Attached Multifamily
Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
17 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
FIGURE 20: Housing Units Built in the CSD, 2011-2015
Jenkintown Abington
COTTMAN AVE MT CARMEL AVE TOWNSHIP LINE RD
RICES MILL RD
GLENSIDE AVE CENTRAL AVE CENTRAL
LIMEKILN PIKE Elkins Park CEDAR RD CEDAR n School n RD EASTON Cheltenham ASHMEAD RD Glenside n ASHBOURNE RD Wyncote Cheltenham CHURCH RD ES ES n ES
NEW SECOND ST
309 GREENWOODAVE Cheltenham Myers ST FRONT
Springfield ¤£ n HS n ES
LIMEKILN PIKE WASHINGTON LN WASHINGTON Cedarbrook OGONTZn AVEMS
CHELTENHAM AVE TOOKANY CREEK PKWY Philadelphia
0 0.25 0.5 1 Types of Units Built Miles SFD SFA MF ´ Myers ES Cheltenham ES Wyncote ES Glenside ES
18 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT
Housing Activity With assistance from township staff and county Housing Units Proposed planners, we have identified the major sites that have Impacts of Housing on Enrollment Given the diminished amount of construction in the received interest and have some probability of being last three years, it would not take much new developed in the next ten years. All of them could development to surpass the recent trend level and Housing Units Built be considered as “potential” but only one of those start to have an effect on enrollment. However, the developments could be described as “very likely” at
prospect for new development is uncertain due to the this time and the other is currently under Housing Units Proposed current status and expectations for developable tracts construction—the “Ashbourne Meadows” and in the district. “Wyngate II” projects respectively. Even if these Housing Sales The chart in Figure 21 shows the level of formal were the only two developments built in the next five submission activity in Cheltenham. It looks like years, their impact would surpass the trend activity has been very quiet in recent years with the development level and provide increased growth in exception of a couple development proposals in 2014 public school enrollment. and 2015. Those submissions recognize the The map in Figure 22 shows the location, status, and “Ashbourne Meadows” development, the age- number of units for all of the developments that restricted “Enclave at Kerlin Farm,” and “Ashbourne could potentially be built over the next ten years. Estates” multi-family proposals. There has been Not all are expected to be built. The enrollment other activity, including plans for multifamily projections in Part 3 include only the “very likely” development or single family detached homes at projects get built (shown in green). The reality will Laverock Hill and several other sites that have drawn be somewhere in between. Figure 35 on page 33 developer interest but lack formal proposals so far. further details the potential developments along with an estimated timeline and expected impact in terms of additional public school students.
FIGURE 21: Housing Units Formally Proposed in the CSD by Housing Type, 2006-2015
300
250
200
150
100
50
0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Single Family Detached Single Family Attached Multifamily
Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
19 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
FIGURE 22: Potential Housing Developments
Jenkintown Abington Ashbourne Meadows COTTMAN AVE TOWNSHIP LINE RD 90 SFD + 76 SFA = 166 Total Units MT CARMEL AVE EDU’s have been approved for this pro- RICES MILL RD posal but construction has not begun yet. Laverock Hill GLENSIDE AVE Lynnewood Hall Recent zoning approval greenlights On the market, rumored to be developer to build. However, plan considered for townhouse devel- opment. Historic preservation evolving due to Springfield TWP not AVE CENTRAL concerns regarding home and
approving necessary zoningLIMEKILN changes PIKE Elkins Park CEDAR RD CEDAR on their respective part of the parcel. fence. n School
EASTON RD EASTON Cheltenham n Ashbourne Estates ASHMEAD RD Glenside A proposaln for 146 units, ASHBOURNE RD Wyncote Cheltenham CHURCH RD ES possibly age restricted. n However,ES No EDU approval ES
NEW SECOND ST
309 due to previousGREENWOOD AVE moratorium. Cheltenham Myers ST FRONT
Springfield ¤£ n HS n ES LIMEKILN PIKE Dominican Retreat Enclave at Kerlin Farm
WASHINGTON LN WASHINGTON On the market, can have up to Proposal for 79 age-restricted Cedarbrook 250 units due to a recent re- units, but no EDU’s granted yet. zoning. Wyngate II OGONTZn AVEMS 28 SFA Will be completed in 2017, part of an existing development. CHELTENHAM AVE TOOKANY CREEK PKWY Philadelphia
Cheltenham ES Myers ES Wyncote ES Glenside ES 0 0.25 0.5 1 Miles
´ 20 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT
Housing Activity Housing Sales figures still pale in comparison to earlier in the decade, but Cheltenham District is experiencing sales Impacts of Housing on Enrollment Market-rate housing sales activity in the Cheltenham activity close to pre-recession levels. However, it is School District has followed a pattern of brisk sales unlikely that the market returns to that activity in the growth unlike countywide sales activity which has foreseeable future. Housing Units Built grown more modestly. The number of units sold The impact of a decline in sales is that it can slow peaked at very high levels in the early to mid 2000s down migration activity in an area that features a Housing Units Proposed before the housing boom crashed and the economy majority of its housing stock as owner-occupied entered a recession. Sales levels continually declined housing. Greater sales activity provides for a Housing Sales to historically low levels through 2011. During this churning of households that should result in a greater collapse, home values flattened out and often number of school age children as well as child- depreciated as financial markets tightened up for bearing age women. The recent recovery, should it potential buyers. continue, could help sustain higher birth levels in the The last four years have shown the continual future. recovery of the District with the number of existing unit sales growing by 72% from 2011 to 2015. The county also began to recover in this time period, but at a slower rate of 32%. At the county levels, these
FIGURE 23: Total Existing Housing Units Sold in the CSD, 2006-2015
600
500
400
300
200
100
0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
21 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
FIGURE 24: Existing Housing Units Sold in the CSD, 2010-2014
Jenkintown Abington
COTTMAN AVE TOWNSHIP LINE RD MT CARMEL AVE
RICES MILL RD
GLENSIDE AVE CENTRAL AVE CENTRAL Elkins Park LIMEKILN PIKE CEDAR RD CEDAR n School n RD EASTON Cheltenham ASHMEAD RD Glenside n ASHBOURNE RD Wyncote Cheltenham CHURCH RD ES ES n ES
NEW SECOND ST
CheltenhamGREENWOODAVE Myers FRONT ST FRONT Springfield ¤£309 n HS n ES
LIMEKILN PIKE WASHINGTON LN WASHINGTON Cedarbrook OGONTZn AVEMS
CHELTENHAM AVE TOOKANY CREEK PKWY Philadelphia
0 0.25 0.5 1 ´ Miles
22 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT
23
District Enrollment Projections Part 3
CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT
District Enrollment Projections Cohort Progression Model in 2013, it entered the ninth grade and this time it increased at a rate of 1.104, gaining 40 students. In The method used in this study to calculate Cohort Progression Model projections for each grade level is known as the 2014, it entered the tenth grade and decreased again Cohort Progression Model, which is also referred to at a rate of 0.911, losing 38 students by the Projected Enrollment Summaries as Cohort Survival in some applications. This is a enrollment figures. fairly common approach and one used by the state Looking at the whole range of progression rates Indicators of Projection Change and other districts in formulating projections. (Figure 25), most of the rates are above 1.0 at the However, it should always be used with caution and elementary school level. Half of the average rates presented in context with the other variables offered above the elementary level represent an increase. in this report. In some districts there will be cause The K-1 average rate is the highest rate at the for adjustments to the model based on changing elementary level, which is often the case when some factors in population growth or migration. parents opt for nonpublic kindergarten programs The nature of the model allows it to integrate trend before entering the public system. After ninth grade, activity across a number of variables. Birth rates classes tend to drop but this is not unusual, as it is have the most obvious impacts in the model, but the possible some students will drop out of school and changes that take place account for trends in fewer families may be likely to change districts with population migration, housing construction, sales, children near the end of their secondary education. and alternative schooling choices, such as private, CSD is unique in its dramatic gains seen in the 8-9 charter, or homeschooling opportunities. transition, followed by an equivalent drop in the 9-10 transition. The model is fairly straightforward in its method. It tracks each class in a given year and measures the Birth-to-Kindergarten Ratio change in that class from one year to the next. Then The projection of future enrollments in the model it applies an average of changes over a specified time requires that we apply the trends in progression rates period to determine the percentage of a given grade to future classes as they go from one grade to the likely to “progress” to the next grade in future years. next. However, the kindergarten class for each year A six year average was used for the Cheltenham does not have an enrollment figure for its prior year School District, since it would account for enrollment since those children would be in preschool or home patterns from the 2010 through 2016 school years. care outside of the district system. Therefore, we Figure 25 displays all of the progression rates for must use live birth data to identify ratios of births to each grade transition from the last five school years. kindergarten. The birth data comes from a given past The average is calculated to arrive at a basic trend year and is then applied to the kindergarten class that that will be applied for each projected year. Any would follow six years later in order to capture the progression rate that is greater than 1.0 indicates that same children at each end of the ratio. For instance, a class increased in size from one year to the next as a birth-to-kindergarten ratio for the 2015-16 school it also moved up a grade level. Progression rates that year uses kindergarten enrollment in 2015 as the are lower than 1.0 indicate that a class decreased in numerator and divides it by the birth data from 2009- size. For example, the seventh grade class of the 10 to form the rate (1.030) shown in Figure 25. 2011 school year decreased in size when it entered The ratios of births to kindergarten are typically the eighth grade in 2012 at a rate of 0.990. Using lower than the yearly grade progression rates. Some actual enrollment figures, the class went from 390 to will go straight into a nonpublic school, and others 386 students during that period. The following year may move away before entry into kindergarten. The
25 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
FIGURE 25: Grade Progression Rates Over the Last Six Years
School Year Birth-K* K-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-11 11-12 2011-12 0.784 1.069 1.003 1.000 1.049 1.007 1.030 1.048 1.000 1.166 0.910 0.976 0.941 2012-13 0.847 1.031 1.058 1.022 1.032 1.046 1.046 1.026 0.990 1.319 0.822 0.929 0.942 2013-14 1.035 1.060 1.067 0.997 1.009 1.014 1.035 1.041 0.972 1.104 0.816 1.026 1.034 2014-15 0.887 1.031 1.006 0.994 1.034 1.012 0.975 1.014 0.988 1.160 0.911 0.924 0.992 2015-16 1.030 1.039 1.060 1.027 1.057 1.027 0.997 1.023 1.014 1.052 0.872 0.910 0.976 2016-17 0.917 1.076 1.014 1.023 1.061 0.995 1.020 1.027 0.975 1.033 0.986 0.977 1.088 Average** 0.920 1.050 1.035 1.010 1.043 1.015 1.021 1.029 0.988 1.120 0.879 0.951 0.986
* The birth-to-kindergarten ratio uses birth data six years prior to the indicated school year, thus drawing the relationship between children born and the year they would actually enter kindergarten. ** Averages are generated by removing the lowest and highest outlier within each grade group to control for anomalies. averaging out of the ratios gives us the best dependable start to projecting the size of kindergarten age children per year. A review of proposed approximation of the net result of all birth and classes in the future. development on pages 19-20 indicates that migration activity in the district, but clearly there is Estimated Births development over the next ten years is expected to room for variation in any singular instance. exceed this pace. Option 3 on the following pages The projection of kindergarten classes after 2020 One beneficial aspect of a birth-to-kindergarten ratio includes adjustments to the model to account for the requires the use of estimated birth figures for the next additional construction that will bring more school is that it allows the model to integrate real data into six years. A simple approach to estimate these births the first half of the projection period. In other words, children into the public school system. Option 3 is is to use an average of the most recent birth figures intended to cover the range of potential development projections of kindergarten classes for the first four and extend it through the end of the projection years, through the 2020 school year, can account for that is most likely to come to fruition within the next period. In the Cheltenham School District, the ten years. real changes in birth patterns that have occurred from average number of births over the last five years of 2010 to 2015. The downside is that an estimated full data available was 343. This is the figure used to The housing adjustment calculations in Option 3 also birth figure must be used for any projection beyond formulate the ten year district projections in Option 1 recognize that not all school age children attend the 2020 school year. on the following page. public school, and additional infill development and Projection Periods new proposals will continue alongside the major The increasing numbers of child-bearing age females projects accounted for in the adjustment. See page Due to the distinction between using real birth data along with an improving economy could ultimately 33 for more details on the adjustments made. and the need to estimate beyond four years, have a positive effect on birth totals in the future. enrollment projections are divided into two periods. Option 2 allows for a scenario where births do The primary period covers the first five school years continue to increase, but recognizes that this impact from 2017 to 2021, and the secondary period covers will not begin to have an impact until at least five the next five school years from 2022 to 2026. There years from now. is a higher degree of accuracy expected during the Housing Adjustment primary period than in the secondary period. Recent trends are more likely to continue in the short term The models for Options 1 and 2 are based on recent before outside factors can influence a change in activity, including housing construction. As patterns, but the use of the birth data gives a more discussed on pages 15-16, construction over the last six years has resulted in an estimated 5 new school
26 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT
Projected Enrollments 2015-16 birth estimates. Instead of using the five year average for Figures 26, 27, and 28 offer three variations of grade by grade projections over births, this scenario increases birth estimates by 9 each year so that they the next ten years. The first two scenarios are progressions with variations in are up to 398 by 2020-21 which impacts the final year of our study birth rates, the first scenario projects an average birth rate of the first half in the period, 2026-27. second half of the projection while the second adds a steady increase in births Option 3—Higher Future Birth Estimate Plus Housing Adjustment each year of the second half.. The third scenario recognizes an adjustment Maintains the same progression rates and increased birth estimates used made for upcoming or under construction development projects, as well as in Option 2. assuming a progressively higher level of birth activity. Since these future birth estimates only begin to impact kindergarten enrollment beginning with the Accounts for increase in expected housing construction with an 2021-22 school year, the first four years of the primary period are identical for adjustment that recognizes impact beyond trend development level. the second and third scenarios. In summary: Option 1—Base Future Birth Estimate Option 3 is recommended as the most likely scenario. Progression rate averages are based on six years. Future births are estimated as an average of the last five years. Option 2—Higher Future Birth Estimate Maintains the same progression rates as Option 1. Increase in Estimated Births—Births affecting the enrollment size of classes beginning in 2021-22 could potentially increase beginning with the
FIGURE 26: Projected Enrollments, OPTION 1—Base Future Birth Estimate
Births 6 School Year Years Ago* K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL 2017-18 336 309 323 350 359 415 371 376 365 340 390 328 324 335 4,585 2018-19 340 313 324 334 353 374 421 379 387 361 381 343 312 320 4,602 2019-20 328 302 328 336 338 368 380 430 390 382 404 335 326 307 4,626 2020-21 374 344 317 340 339 352 374 387 442 385 428 355 318 321 4,704 2021-22 343 316 361 328 343 354 358 382 399 437 432 376 338 314 4,736 2022-23 343 316 331 374 331 358 359 365 393 394 490 379 358 333 4,780 2023-24 343 316 331 343 378 345 363 366 376 388 441 430 361 353 4,791 2024-25 343 316 331 343 346 394 350 371 377 371 435 388 409 356 4,786 2025-26 343 316 331 343 346 361 400 358 381 373 416 382 369 404 4,778 2026-27 343 316 331 343 346 361 366 408 368 377 417 365 363 364 4,726
27 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
FIGURE 27: Projected Enrollments, OPTION 2—Higher Future Birth Estimate
Births 6 School Year Years Ago* K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL 2017-18 336 309 323 350 359 415 371 376 365 340 390 328 324 335 4,585 2018-19 340 313 324 334 353 374 421 379 387 361 381 343 312 320 4,602 2019-20 328 302 328 336 338 368 380 430 390 382 404 335 326 307 4,626 2020-21 374 344 317 340 339 352 374 387 442 385 428 355 318 321 4,704 2021-22 353 325 361 328 343 354 358 382 399 437 432 376 338 314 4,745 2022-23 362 333 341 374 331 358 359 365 393 394 490 379 358 333 4,807 2023-24 371 341 350 353 378 345 363 366 376 388 441 430 361 353 4,845 2024-25 380 350 358 362 356 394 350 371 377 371 435 388 409 356 4,877 2025-26 389 358 367 371 365 372 400 358 381 373 416 382 369 404 4,914 2026-27 398 366 376 380 374 381 377 408 368 377 417 365 363 364 4,917 * The birth figure for each row does not pertain to births during that year, but rather the births that occurred or is expected to occur six years prior to the projected year. The average birth-to-kindergarten ratio is then applied to get the projected kindergarten class.
FIGURE 28: Projected Enrollments, OPTION 3—Higher Future Birth Estimate Plus Housing Adjustment for Most Likely Potential Development
Births 6 School Year Years Ago* K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL 2017-18 336 311 325 352 361 417 373 378 367 342 392 330 326 337 4,610 2018-19 340 316 328 338 357 377 424 382 390 364 384 346 315 323 4,644 2019-20 328 306 333 340 342 373 384 434 395 386 409 339 330 312 4,684 2020-21 374 350 322 345 345 358 380 393 448 391 434 361 324 327 4,778 2021-22 353 331 367 334 349 360 364 388 405 443 438 382 344 320 4,822 2022-23 362 339 347 380 337 364 365 371 399 400 496 386 364 339 4,887 2023-24 371 348 356 359 384 352 370 373 382 394 448 437 367 359 4,928 2024-25 380 356 365 368 363 400 357 377 384 378 441 394 416 362 4,963 2025-26 389 365 374 377 372 378 406 364 388 379 423 389 376 410 5,003 2026-27 398 373 383 387 382 388 384 415 375 384 424 372 371 371 5,009 * The birth figure for each row does not pertain to births during that year, but rather the births that occurred or is expected to occur six years prior to the projected year. The average birth-to-kindergarten ratio is then applied to get the projected kindergarten class.
28 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT
District Enrollment Projections Projected Enrollment Summaries actual birth data veers from the projected patterns, the district may adjust to a different option number. The The summarized enrollment projections of all options Cohort Progression Model presentation and explanation of each option is for the district and at each school level are presented intended to allow the district to better plan for on the following pages. However, the variation in multiple scenarios. Projected Enrollment Summaries birth estimates make no difference at the middle The general trend for the district under all scenarios school and high school levels since children born is that enrollment is expected to grow over the next Indicators of Projection Change over the next five years will not be old enough to five years, after a moderate decline in the 2017-18 influence those projections within the ten year school year. If the most likely housing proposals get timeframe. built as expected, growth will hit peak rates between Option 3 is recommended as the most realistic or four and six years from now. Growth in the second likely result at this time, but Option 2 presents an period will be milder than the first. alternative of increased birth activity without the Figures 31, 32, 33, and 34 isolate the projections housing adjustment for Ashborune Meadows—the according to the grade levels of buildings in the only likely development proposal in the near term. district. Changes have also been evaluated over the Option 1 can be considered the default or baseline five-year intervals of the primary and secondary standard for enrollment projections. If an assumption periods. Some of the levels will experience very regarding housing development needs to be altered or different trends from one five-year period to the next. FIGURE 30: Total District Enrollment Projections Op on 1—Base Op on 2—Higher Future Op on 3—Housing Future Births Births Adjust-Likely Dev Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual Year Students Change Students Change Students Change 2016-17 (Current) 4,618 4,618 4,618 2017-18 4,585 -33 4,585 -33 4,610 -8 2018-19 4,602 17 4,602 17 4,644 34 2019-20 4,626 24 4,626 24 4,684 40 2020-21 4,704 78 4,704 78 4,778 94 2021-22 4,736 32 4,745 41 4,822 44 5 Yr. Change 2016-2021 118 127 204 2022-23 4,780 44 4,807 62 4,887 65 2023-24 4,791 11 4,845 38 4,928 41 2024-25 4,786 -4 4,877 32 4,963 35 2025-26 4,778 -8 4,914 37 5,003 40 2026-27 4,726 -53 4,917 3 5,009 6 5 Yr. Change 2021-2026 -10 172 187 10 Yr. Change 2016-2026 108 299 391
29 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
FIGURE 31: Elementary School Enrollment Projections (Grades K-4) FIGURE 32: Elkins Park School Enrollment Projections (Grades 5-6) Op on 3—Housing Op on 3—Housing Op on 1—Base Op on 2—Higher Adjustment with Op on 1—Base Op on 2—Higher Adjustment with Future Births Future Births Higher Future Births Future Births Future Births Higher Future Births Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual Year Students Change Students Change Students Change Year Students Change Students Change Students Change 2016-17 2016-17 (Current) 1,765 1,765 1,765 (Current) 723 723 723 2017-18 1,756 -9 1,756 -9 1,765 0 2017-18 747 24 747 24 751 28 2018-19 1,699 -57 1,699 -57 1,715 -50 2018-19 800 53 800 53 807 56 2019-20 1,672 -27 1,672 -27 1,694 -21 2019-20 810 9 810 9 818 12 2020-21 1,692 20 1,692 20 1,720 26 2020-21 761 -48 761 -48 773 -46 2021-22 1,701 9 1,710 18 1,740 20 2021-22 739 -22 739 -22 751 -22 5 Yr. Change 5 Yr. Change 2016-2021 -64 -55 -25 2016-2021 16 16 28 2022-23 1,709 8 1,736 26 1,767 27 2022-23 724 -15 724 -15 736 -15 2023-24 1,712 3 1,766 30 1,798 31 2023-24 730 6 730 6 742 6 2024-25 1,729 17 1,819 53 1,853 54 2024-25 721 -8 721 -8 734 -8 2025-26 1,697 -33 1,832 13 1,867 14 2025-26 757 36 757 36 771 37 2026-27 1,697 0 1,877 45 1,912 46 2026-27 774 17 785 28 799 28 5 Yr. Change 5 Yr. Change 2021-2026 -4 167 172 2021-2026 35 46 48 10 Yr. Change 10 Yr. Change 2016-2026 -68 112 147 2016-2026 51 62 76
Elementary Schools (Grades K-4) Elkins Park School (Grades 5-6) The elementary schools experienced their largest kindergarten classes of the The Elkins Park School is likely to see significant boosts to its enrollment over decade in 2013 and 2014. Those classes will be progressing out of the elementary the next three years due to some larger elementary classes moving through the level over the next three years and the expected size of new replacing classes will system. However, following this increase should be a period of decline that be smaller and result in a decline of enrollment. However, some new detached corresponds to smaller kindergarten classes in the last two years and for the next and attached housing along with greater birth activity will fuel growth in about few years going forward. Overall, the Elkins Park School will likely see higher four years. The District should monitor upcoming birth activity to confirm that it enrollment than it currently has at the end of this next ten years. does increase and cause the growth predicted in Options 2 and 3.
30 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT
FIGURE 33: Cedarbrook Middle School Enrollment Projections (Grades 7-8)
Op on 3—Housing Adjustment Op on 1 — Base Future Births Op on 2—Higher Future Births Likely Development Total Total Total Year Students Annual Change Students Annual Change Students Annual Change 2016-17 (Current) 692 692 692 2017-18 705 13 705 13 709 17 2018-19 748 42 748 42 754 45 2019-20 772 25 772 25 781 27 2020-21 828 56 828 56 839 58 2021-22 836 8 836 8 848 8 5 Yr. Change 2016-2021 144 144 156 2022-23 787 -49 787 -49 799 -49 2023-24 764 -23 764 -23 777 -23 2024-25 748 -16 748 -16 761 -15 2025-26 754 6 754 6 768 6 2026-27 745 -9 745 -9 759 -9 5 Yr. Change 2021-2026 -91 -91 -89 10 Yr. Change 2016-2026 53 53 67
Cedarbrook Middle School (Grades 7-8) Any changes to future birth patterns will not affect enrollment at the Middle School over the next ten years since those children will not have reached the sixth grade prior to 2025. Anticipated growth is expected to be around 150 students over the first five years with most growth occurring over the next three years as those larger elementary classes move into the middle school grades. New construction will have a lesser effect than at the other schools since there are only two grades involved.
31 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
FIGURE 34: Cheltenham High School Enrollment Projections (Grades 9-12)
Op on 3—Housing Adjustment Op on 1 — Base Future Births Op on 2—Higher Future Births Likely Development Total Total Total Year Students Annual Change Students Annual Change Students Annual Change 2016-17 (Current) 1,438 1,438 1,438 2017-18 1,377 -61 1,377 -61 1,385 -53 2018-19 1,355 -22 1,355 -22 1,368 -17 2019-20 1,372 17 1,372 17 1,390 22 2020-21 1,423 51 1,423 51 1,446 55 2021-22 1,460 37 1,460 37 1,483 38 5 Yr. Change 2016-2021 22 22 45 2022-23 1,560 100 1,560 100 1,585 101 2023-24 1,585 25 1,585 25 1,611 26 2024-25 1,588 3 1,588 3 1,614 3 2025-26 1,570 -17 1,570 -17 1,598 -17 2026-27 1,510 -61 1,510 -61 1,538 -60 5 Yr. Change 2021-2026 50 50 55 10 Yr. Change 2016-2026 72 72 100
Cheltenham High School (Grades 9-12) Changes to future births will also not affect enrollment at the High School over the next ten years. Enrollment will see growth in the middle portion of the study period, from 2019 to 2024. During this time, some currently younger and smaller classes will advance to the high school level towards the end of the decade. Note that the total change for the decade is shown as being a gain of 100 students in Option 3, but this includes a large drop in the final year of the study (2026-27). Given the amount of time until then, the confidence in such a large decline should be considered less than certain.
32 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT
District Enrollment Projections Indicators of Projection Change Figure 35 provides the data that was used to make the housing adjustments in the cohort progression model. No further adjustments to the projections on the Factors for the number of children based on unit type Cohort Progression Model preceding pages are necessary at this time. The were assigned based on township averages and background data and analysis throughout this report specific development comparisons. The number of forms a basis and understanding of how the numbers Projected Enrollment Summaries school age children expected in each development should be interpreted. However, markets and trends was calculated and then modified to reflect a can always change in unexpected manners. This Indicators of Projection Change proportion that would attend public over nonpublic section provides a further understanding of the school (87.5 percent). These expected students were assumptions inherent with the progression model and added to the model in the years indicated, and they potential warning signs that would prompt a future were distributed across all grade levels. The totals reconsideration of the projected enrollment figures. were added continually beyond the construction year These indicators are not likely to prompt an in order to keep the average factor of school age immediate change in future enrollments, but over children per unit intact through the life of the model. time they could still influence the outlook. Birth Patterns Housing Construction Birth numbers are directly integrated into the cohort New housing and births are the two most significant progression model. The number of births can factors that could suggest a revision in the expected significantly affect future projections, but any enrollments, but housing will have the more changes today will not be felt for at least six years in immediate effect. Housing construction that impacts school enrollments is expected to continue at a level terms of the projections. Annual birth data should be tracked to anticipate any changes during the higher than what has occurred in the recent past. A secondary period. Live birth data is available from housing adjustment for additional students was the Pennsylvania Department of Health, but the incorporated into Option 3 of the projections, but numbers should be correlated to the school year admittedly, there is a degree of uncertainty with the prospects of potential development. Should any of rather than the calendar year. these construction plans alter or be unexpectedly Alternative School Enrollment discontinued, the effects can be roughly gauged. If Private schools, charter schools, and homeschooling more development is brought forward, a further could also impact the district’s public school adjustment might be warranted, although a trend enrollment if students opt for these alternatives at a level of development is still accommodated in the greater or lesser rate than in the past. The American model beyond 2020. Community Survey provides delayed data on private
FIGURE 35: Factors Used for Option 3—Housing Adjustment Model Calculations Factor for School Age Total Type of School Age Children in Years Added to Public Project Units Unit Child/Unit Public School School across Grades Wyngate II 28 SFA 0.31 8 2017 Ashbourne Meadows 90 SFD 0.93 73 2017,2018,2019,2020 Ashbourne Meadows 76 SFA 0.21 14 2017,2018,2019, 2020
33 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS schools averaged out over multiple years, so the developments since 2009. This number is expected district’s record of private school students using to continue increasing in developments that offer a district buses is going to provide more immediate lesser barrier of entry into a quality suburban school information on any change in enrollment trends. district. The CSD bus records did reflect a variability in Figure 36 details the number of students in each of private school students living in the District hovering these developments. This should be looked at every around 615 students. If this trend were to increase couple of years to verify if the trend is changing over due to an improving economy or other factor, then it time. could reduce the growth expected in the public school enrollment. Nationally, private school enrollment has declined in recent years. Local and national results should be monitored each year. Charter/Cyber Charter schools and homeschooling make up a smaller portion of students within the Cheltenham School District, but some of these opportunities were not around ten to fifteen years ago. Only 77 students were using these charter/cyber charter schools during the 2014-15 school year, the latest year for which data is available. The District does not track homeschooled students. Housing Sales Activity The amount of housing sales transactions in Cheltenham has increased since 2011. The housing market in Cheltenham has improved consistently since that year and has come closer to its pre- recession rate than other municipalities in the county. Countywide sales levels in 2014 were actually lower than they were in 2013, however in Cheltenham they climbed higher. When sales do increase, the effect on school age children in the District is expected to also increase. Sales activity is likely to replace some households without children with those that do have children. They may also bring more families with couples in an age cohort that has the highest fertility rates. Therefore, an increase in school age children may also be a long term impact if housing sales continue to increase. Existing Multifamily Students The housing analysis from Part Two (pages 15-16) revealed the increases in the number of public school students coming from existing multifamily
34 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT
FIGURE 36: Multifamily Housing Inventory of Development with 10 Units or More
Date 2015-16 Students / 2015-16 2012-13 2009-10 Name Type Street Address ES Area Units Built Unit Ra o Total Total Total Lynnewood Gardens Rental 2047 Mather Way*** Combo 1800 1945 0.3 545 526 501 The Towers at Wyncote Rental 8460, 8470, 8480 Limekiln Pike GL 1095 1966 0.2 217 186 89 Wyncote House Rental 25 Washington Ln GL 304 1963 0 3 1 0 Elkins Park House Condo 7900 Old York Road WY 237 1957 0.01 3 2 0 Brookview at Elkins Park Rental 1000-7000 Brookview Pl MY 216 1990 0.17 36 34 38 Church Road Condo Condo 1600 Church Road WY 169 1962 0.06 10 12 8 Melrose Sta on Apartments Rental 902 Valley Road MY 134 1955 0.47 63 71 63 Chelbourne Plaza Condo 46 Township Line Rd MY 100 1965 0.03 3 7 7 Briar House Condo 8302 Old York Road WY 98 1973 0 0 0 0 Melrose Court Apartments Rental 7340 York Rd / 1308 Willow Ave MY 74 1949 0.22 16 10 12 Breyer Estates Condominiums Condo 100 Breyer Drive WY 68 1985 0.06 4 3 0 Coventry House Apartments Rental 7301 Coventry Ave MY 62 1966 0 0 1 0 Hillbrook Apartments Rental 651 Brooke Rd GL 60 1961 0.12 7 4 9 Elkins Park Gardens Rental 8000 High School Rd MY 50 1952 0.26 13 14 13 Rolling Hill Apartments Rental 26 Township Line Rd MY 47 1967 0.36 17 12 10 Melrose Park House Condo 900 Valley Road MY 40 1982 0 0 1 2 Elkins Court Condo 700 Elkins Avenue WY 37 1930 0.08 3 4 1 Park Side Manor Rental 7876 Spring Ave MY 34 1950 0.12 4 3 1 Laurwyck Manor Apartments Rental 22 Township Line Rd MY 32 1960 0.44 14 8 7 Glenside Apartments Rental 40 Mount Carmel Ave GL 26 1961 0 0 1 0 Northwood Condo Condo 650 Brooke Road GL 25 1965 0.12 3 4 5 The Manor Apartments Rental 777 Limekiln Pike GL 21 1961 0 0 0 0 Elkins Park Apartments Rental 415 Church Rd WY 19 1922 0.42 8 5 6 Regina Rose Apartments Rental 515 Stahr Rd MY 12 1924 0.25 3 0 0 Valley Apartments Rental 7318, 7324, 7326 Coventry Ave MY 12 1955 0.92 11 7 2 Beaver View Apartments Rental 615 Paxson Avenue GL 10 1950 0.1 1 0 0 Brookside Terrace Rental 534 E. Church Rd MY 10 1965 0.1 1 4 2 Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
35
School Profiles Part 4
CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT
School Profiles Introduction have been customized to recognize each school boundary. Plus, the overall projections for each Application of the Cohort Progression Model to school level provide the context for how much Introduction individual school buildings can be done, but it loses growth or decline might occur in each school. accuracy when enrollments are at a smaller scale, Cheltenham Elementary especially when under one thousand. It becomes The following profiles offer an assessment of what is even more difficult when school boundary areas do happening in each current elementary school area so Glenside Elementary not correspond with municipal boundaries, making it that it may help inform the future. Of course, the Elkins Park School, Cedarbrook Middle, and difficult to use actual birth data related to the precise area. These situations are existing conditions in the Cheltenham High School profiles are not included Myers Elementary Cheltenham School District, so the following school since those schools are unique to their grade levels, profiles do not present detailed projection numbers and their projections are presented in Part Three. Wyncote Elementary for the future.
However, there is still useful data that can inform more general forecasts for the future. The county’s geographic data on housing construction and sales
Cheltenham Elementary School Glenside Elementary School
Myers Elementary School Wyncote Elementary School
37 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Cheltenham Elementary School Housing Activity. The Cheltenham ES area has had Forecast. Enrollment at Cheltenham ES is predicted virtually no construction activity in the last five years to decline over the next two years with smaller Current Class Sizes. Some of the largest classes are due to being a mature set of neighborhoods with few kindergarten classes and larger departing classes. currently passing through the school and will likely development opportunities. However, Cheltenham Growth will continue with the combination of higher lead to continued enrollment stability. Due to lower ES also has the greatest number of potential units if birth totals, possible new construction, and stronger births the last few years and smaller kindergarten the Ashbourne Meadows development is built and sales activity than in some other areas of the district. classes over the next two years, overall enrollment placed within the catchment. As it stands now, the By 2020, enrollment could be 30-35 students higher may decline in the near term. development is split between two catchments— if Ashbourne Meadows is completed and the students Cheltenham and Myers. Housing sales in this sent to this catchment. However, if it is not built or catchment have grown the second most of any the students sent to Myers, then there will likely be
catchment in the last 5 years. little net change in enrollment.
FIGURE 37: Cheltenham Elementary School Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2016 Annual Year K 1 2 3 4 Total Change 2009-10 70 95 70 75 93 403 29 2010-11 71 94 102 81 80 428 25 2011-12 70 76 81 103 79 409 -19 2012-13 74 77 81 82 105 419 10 2013-14 90 86 86 87 88 437 18 2014-15 78 98 96 87 95 454 27 2015-16 100 85 113 99 93 490 36 2016-17 86 107 98 116 108 515 25 Source: Cheltenham School District FIGURE 38: Housing Activity Within Cheltenham ES Boundary Area
New Units Built Existing Units Sold Year SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total 2011 0 0 0 0 35 8 0 43 2012 0 0 0 0 41 9 0 50 2013 0 0 0 0 53 21 0 74 2014 0 0 0 0 53 19 0 72 2015 0 0 0 0 58 18 0 76 Total 0 0 0 0 240 75 0 315 Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
38 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT
Glenside Elementary School Housing Activity. There has been some new Forecast. Enrollment at Glenside ES is likely to see construction in recent years in the form of single some decline over the next two years due to larger Current Class Sizes. Enrollment at Glenside ES has family attached, but no new major projects are classes moving out of the school and being replaced grown the most of the elementary schools over the scheduled for construction in the next five years. by smaller ones. In the near term a loss of around 40 last eight years due to a bulge in kindergarten Housing sales have risen, but not at the rate of the students is expected before a rebound that will likely enrollment between 2011 and 2014. However, the other catchments. The Glenside ES area is home to not be enough to leave the school with a net gain at most recent kindergarten classes are much lower than one of the largest existing apartment developments the end of five years. Overall expected loss is around three to six years prior, therefore enrollment is likely that have seen an influx of students. Continued 20 students by 2021. to slip the next couple of years. increases at this and other locations could potentially fuel more growth for the school.
FIGURE 39: Glenside Elementary School Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2016
Annual Year K 1 2 3 4 Total Change 2009-10 68 74 59 64 77 342 -14 2010-11 72 72 81 66 63 354 12 2011-12 100 86 89 80 77 432 78 2012-13 91 97 91 89 92 460 28 2013-14 110 99 103 94 89 495 35 2014-15 106 107 85 101 95 494 -1 2015-16 77 107 103 94 99 480 -14 2016-17 89 82 105 108 101 485 5
Source: Cheltenham School District
FIGURE 40: Housing Activity Within Glenside ES Boundary Area
New Units Built Existing Units Sold Year SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total 2011 0 2 0 0 66 15 0 81 2012 0 0 0 0 71 8 0 79 2013 0 5 0 0 67 18 0 85 2014 0 36 0 0 81 20 0 101 2015 0 18 0 0 89 27 0 116 Total 0 61 0 61 374 88 0 462
Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
39 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Myers Elementary School Housing Activity. There has been hardly any Forecast. Enrollment at Myers ES is expected to construction over the last five years, except for an stay about the same as no significantly larger Current Class Sizes. Enrollment at Myers ES has age-restricted development in 2011, and sales have kindergarten classes present themselves. However, generally declined in the past seven years. This increased, as they have in other school areas but not growth could pick up in 2020 and beyond as the decline has stemmed from relatively small to as great extent as the other catchments. The recent upticks in birth will be represented in school kindergarten classes making their way through the Ashbourne Meadows development is an upcoming enrollments and possible new developments come system as well as lower sales and construction 166 unit townhome and detached single family online. Overall, enrollment is expected to stay about growth than other catchments. development that is expected to have a higher rate of the same with variability over the next five years children than some other recent developments in the unless Ashbourne Meadows is built and the students township, but the question of where those students sent to Myers. With Ashbourne Meadows expect 30-
will attend, Cheltenham or Myers, is up for 35 more students by 2021, without its construction consideration. expect no net change. FIGURE 41: Myers Elementary School Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2016 Annual Year K 1 2 3 4 Total Change 2009-10 95 74 73 80 73 395 30 2010-11 58 69 73 76 83 359 -36 2011-12 77 65 66 72 79 359 0 2012-13 74 79 66 70 72 361 2 2013-14 65 65 81 61 74 346 -15 2014-15 70 66 66 76 62 340 -6 2015-16 73 80 71 70 85 379 39 2016-17 65 77 72 77 76 367 -12 Source: Cheltenham School District
FIGURE 42: Housing Activity Within Myers ES Boundary Area
New Units Built Existing Units Sold Year SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total 2011 0 0 84 84 39 6 1 46 2012 0 0 0 0 44 15 0 59 2013 0 0 0 0 44 10 1 55 2014 0 0 0 0 69 15 0 84 2015 0 0 0 0 56 8 0 64 Total 0 0 84 84 399 66 66 308
Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
40 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT
Wyncote Elementary School Housing Activity. There had been new construction Forecast. Enrollment at Wyncote ES will likely in recent years in the form of the multi-family 1600 decline over the next couple of years due to smaller Current Class Sizes. Enrollment at Wyncote ES Church Road and the single family attached Reserve kindergarten classes. However, the last phase of the had grown up until last year since 2010, but is back at Wyngate. The Reserve at Wyngate is under Reserve at Wyngate is districted to Wyncote ES, so down to the level seen in 2009. Most of the growth development now and nearing completion. It is a there will likely be some growth in three to five was due to larger than average kindergarten classes market-rate development but geared towards cost- years. Overall, including the impact of Wyngate, making their way through the system, but as of late conscious buyers and has the potential to attract more expect a net loss of around 20 students. the new kindergarten classes have become smaller. families than what is typical for new single family attached developments. Housing sales within this catchment are the highest in the whole district and
represent the highest rate of increase over the last 5 years. FIGURE 43: Wyncote Elementary School Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2016
Annual Year K 1 2 3 4 Total Change 2009-10 76 84 85 74 78 397 -1 2010-11 90 86 86 86 78 426 39 2011-12 73 84 86 87 89 419 -7 2012-13 76 77 91 88 84 416 -3 2013-14 91 84 82 86 81 424 8 2014-15 83 96 89 86 87 441 17 2015-16 64 78 102 82 93 419 -22 2016-17 68 72 80 97 81 398 -21 Source: Cheltenham School District
FIGURE 44: Housing Activity Within Wyncote ES Boundary Area
New Units Built Existing Units Sold Year SFD SFA MF Total SFD SFA MF Total 2011 0 1 0 1 53 13 7 73 2012 0 0 0 0 63 20 18 101 2013 1 0 0 1 82 18 18 118 2014 0 0 55 55 85 24 16 125 2015 0 21 0 22 103 21 11 135 Total 1 22 55 78 386 96 70 552
Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
41 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
42