Cheltenham School District Enrollment Projections Cheltenham School District Enrollment Projections Prepared By The Montgomery County Planning Commission November, 2016 Board of School Directors William England, President Stephanie H. Gray, Vice President David L. Cohen Joel I. Fishbein Julie Haywood Brian Malloy Jean McWilliams Napoleon Nelson David M. Rackow Superintendent Dr. Wagner Marseille Table of Contents Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1 Summary of Key Findings .................................................................................................................................. 3 School District Characteristics Population ............................................................................................................................................................ 5 Birth Patterns ...................................................................................................................................................... 7 School District Enrollment .............................................................................................................................. 9 Alternative School Enrollment..................................................................................................................... 11 Housing Activity Impacts of Housing on Enrollment ............................................................................................................. 15 Housing Units Built ......................................................................................................................................... 17 Housing Units Proposed ............................................................................................................................... 19 Housing Sales ................................................................................................................................................... 21 District Enrollment Projections Cohort Progression Model........................................................................................................................... 25 Projected Enrollment Summaries ............................................................................................................... 29 Indicators of Projection Change.................................................................................................................. 33 School Profiles ................................................................................................................................................................ 37 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT Introduction the housing bubble burst and the recession hit are ramping up again and may come to fruition in the School districts can only plan for their future if they future. have some idea of what that future will entail. The This report gives an overview of the population and number of students that will need to be served by housing characteristics within the Cheltenham School district facilities is the key variable that must be District (CSD) in order to establish the conditions understood in order to make prudent decisions. that have formed the most recent enrollment trends. The housing market has improved over the last three Future enrollments will depend largely upon the years, and development proposals are on the rise following factors: again. Mature suburbs like Cheltenham are seeing renewed developer interest. Denser housing types Recent and future births such as multifamily and townhomes are also being Housing construction sought in addition to the still dominant single family Moves in and out of the school district detached homes in Cheltenham. Some proposals or interest in sites that may have been suspended after Private, charter, home, and cyber school growth The following study employs the use of a Cohort Progression Model to account for the above factors and form projections for each grade level over the next ten years. No model is perfect when it comes to predicting the future, but given the right data, an accurate projection for the next five years is expected. Projections should not be considered a final product with the completion of the model. Additional data and analysis, including housing and population forecasts, characteristics of households by housing types, geographic mobility by age cohorts, and housing sales activity, are also presented in this study to provide a useful context with the projections. These important data points should be reviewed every year to determine if unanticipated activity is occurring and how that might influence the projections and actual enrollments down the line. 1 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS FIGURE 1: District School Locations and Boundary Areas Jenkintown Abington COTTMAN AVE MT CARMEL AVE TOWNSHIP LINE RD RICES MILL RD GLENSIDE AVE CENTRAL AVE CENTRAL LIMEKILN PIKE Elkins Park CEDAR RD CEDAR n School n RD EASTON Cheltenham ASHMEAD RD Glenside n ASHBOURNE RD Wyncote Cheltenham CHURCH RD ES ES n ES NEW SECOND ST GREENWOODAVE 309 Cheltenham Myers FRONT ST FRONT Springfield ¤£ n HS n ES LIMEKILN PIKE WASHINGTON LN WASHINGTON Cedarbrook OGONTZn AVE MS CHELTENHAM AVE TOOKANY CREEK PKWY Philadelphia Cheltenham ES Myers ES Wyncote ES Glenside ES 0 0.25 0.5 1 Miles ´ 2 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT public school students are resulting from this The middle school and high school levels are Summary of Key Findings turnover and an increase in sales will likely going to experience variable growth over the The general trend in future enrollments for the bring younger households into the area. next ten years with all grade levels (5-12) Cheltenham School District calls for an increase of experiencing net positive growth by 2026. The over 2% in the next ten years, but that could climb as Projections amount of housing construction will also high as 8.5% if birth activity increase and all influence enrollment at these levels although the prospective development comes to fruition. Birth A cohort progression model has been prepared and effect will be lesser than at the elementary activity should increase due to more adults aging into presented as three scenarios, or options. The first, school due to fewer actual grades and the the most popular child-bearing years. The following Option 1, is really a base scenario using existing potential for younger families in newer units. factors are determining this forecast: trends and estimated birth activity to determine Births in the CSD have been low in recent years where enrollment is headed. The second, Option 2, with one exception, the 2014-15 year. A more anticipates an increase in birth activity that will result robust kindergarten class may result in the 2020- in larger kindergarten classes over the second half of 21 school year as a result, but preceding years the study period (years 6 through 10). The third, are not expected to change substantially in size. Option 3, includes increased birth activity and addresses future residential development that will Births should begin rising over the next five increase enrollment through the creation of more years, which will affect the second half of this households. This study recommends that Option 3 is study period. As the Millennial generation the most likely future regarding enrollments, but that moves into child-bearing years, the county and it ultimately depends on the outcome of potential township will see an increase in the age cohort development projects. of 25-34 year old females through 2025. Enrollment has been variably growing over the last Private school enrollment from students living in decade, but mild increases in construction, birth the district has decreased from 10 years ago, but activity, housing sales, and students coming out of remained relatively stable in the last 5. denser residential developments will expand that Several properties have been identified as growth over the next five years. We expect growth supporting potential residential construction over to continue over the second five year period as well, the next ten years. Only a couple are considered although the rate will slow down. Each of the “very likely” for the near term, but even if only district’s four grade distributions will grow, but in these are developed, the impact on school very different manners. Middle levels will grow enrollment will outpace the recent trend level of most during the first five years, while the elementary construction. Other properties may also and high school level will see its growth occur during eventually be developed, and they would bring the second five years. more growth. The elementary school will actually decline over Existing multifamily buildings have been the next few years before new housing brings it providing more students over the last five years back up to current levels. This is due to the and will continue to provide more students. The upcoming departures of some historically high rental market is hot and provides a lower barrier class sizes and smaller kindergarten classes of entry into a quality school district. replacing them. However, by 2020, new Residential sales activity has gone up over the construction and greater birth activity will spur last five years in the district but still falls just growth of around 100 students during the next below levels seen before the recession. More six years. 3 School District Characteristics Part 1 CHELTENHAM