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Eicher Motors 18 July 2017

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Eicher Motors 18 July 2017 Institutional Equities Eicher Motors 18 July 2017 Reuters: EICH.NS; Bloomberg: EIM IN Aspire The Bike, Aspire The Stock! BUY We initiate coverage on Eicher Motors (EML) with a Buy rating as we believe its growth momentum will continue over FY18/FY19. We expect 20% volume CAGR for Royal Sector: Automobiles Enfield, over FY17-19E. In terms of demand, we believe the demand in leisure bike and CMP: Rs28,059 premium segments will continue to remain strong as the existing two-wheeler base (~70mn) moves towards better and high-end products. Royal Enfield’s EBITDA margin at Target Price: Rs32,566 31% is the best in the industry, which we believe will expand further by ~120bps over FY18E/FY19E as better economies of scales leads to further margin expansion. The Upside: 16% company plans to add ~300 dealers over FY18E/FY19E (~40% growth over FY17 number) Gaurant Dadwal which coupled with the launch of new bikes (two new launches in FY18/FY19) should Research Analyst result in demand remaining strong for another two years. We have assigned Buy rating to EML with a SOTP-based target price of Rs32,566, up 16% from the current market price [email protected] (35x FY19E EPS of Royal Enfield and 15x FY19E EPS of VECV). +91-22-3926 8145 Volume growth expected to continue: Royal Enfield’s volume growth in the past few years has been phenomenal, posting 51% CAGR over FY11-FY17. Consistent strong demand has Vivek Sarin outpaced supply resulting in a strong order book for the company which currently stands at ~1.5 Research Associate – 2.0 months. The company is expanding capacity by 150,000 units to 825,000 units and will [email protected] commence production from its new plant at Vallam Vadgal in Chennai by August 2017, which +91 22 3926 8176 will further result in higher despatches to customers. We believe Royal Enfield has more legs to grow in the coming years as Royal Enfield’s market share is just 5.9% of the over 11mn Key Data domestic motorcycle industry volume in India. Strong replacement demand, uptrade of existing two wheeler – base to premium segment bikes, strong dealer expansion, rising exports and Current Shares O/S (mn) 27.2 marketing initiatives should result in double-digit volume growth momentum for Royal Enfield in Mkt Cap (Rsbn/US$bn) 763.8/11.9 the coming years. We expect 20% volume CAGR growth for Royal Enfield over FY17- FY19E. 52 Wk H / L (Rs) 30,051/19,525 Margins set to expand further: EML is one of the most profitable companies with its two- wheeler EBITDA margin above 30%. 4QFY17 margin at 31.4% is the highest-ever as the Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 49,981 Initiating Coverage Initiating company has been consistently improving margins YoY. In the last seven years, the company posted 2,100bps margin expansion from 10.0% to 31.3%. We expect the margins to expand further on the back of better economies of scale with. We expect another 120bps margin Share holding (%) 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 expansion over FY18E/FY19E. Promoter 50.6 50.6 50.6 Strong financials: We believe that Royal Enfield’s ready brand acceptance in the two-wheeler DII 36.7 36.4 36.5 space and its niche positioning in the cruise bike segment will help it sustain 20% CAGR volume growth over FY17-19E. The company has lined up two new launches over FY18/FY19 which will Public & Others 13.9 13.9 13.9 serve in strengthening its product portfolio. We expect the company to post sales/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 24%/26%/25%, respectively, over FY17-FY19E and margins to remain resilient at over 30% level. Further, the company has been generating strong free cash flow over the past few One -Year Indexed Stock Performance years which is expected to remain strong over FY17-FY19 even after meeting capex 160 requirement. 150 140 Valuation: EML stock has re-rated significantly in the past few years on the back of strong 130 volume growth and earnings growth led by volume and margin expansion. It is one of the most 120 expensive automobile stocks, but we believe the premium is justified on account of continuous 110 outperformance on volume and margin fronts. We have assigned Buy rating to EML with a 100 90 SOTP-based target price of Rs32,566, up 16% from the current market price (35x FY19E EPS 80 of Royal Enfield and 15x FY19E EPS of VECV). Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 EICHER MOTORS Nifty 50 Y/E March (Rsmn) CY14 FY16 (15 months) FY17 FY18E FY19E Net sales 30,312 61,862 70,380 90,438 108,573 EBITDA 7,336 17,082 22,059 28,879 35,286 Price Performance (%) Net profit 5,589 13,092 15,601 20,134 24,383 EPS (Rs) 206.2 482.0 573.3 740.0 896.1 1 M 6 M 1 Yr EPS growth (%) 101.0 133.7 18.9 29.1 21.1 Eicher Motors (2.4) 25.5 41.9 EBITDA margin (%) 24.2 27.6 31.3 31.9 32.5 P/E (x) 136.0 58.2 48.9 37.9 31.3 Nifty Index 3.4 18.1 16.1 P/BV (x) 61.9 32.7 19.5 15.1 11.0 Source: Bloomberg EV/EBITDA (x) 103.6 44.6 34.6 26.4 21.6 RoE (%) 45.3 46.6 39.8 39.7 35.1 RoCE (%) 44.0 45.3 38.4 38.6 34.4 Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Institutional Equities Valuation/stock price performance EML stock has been significantly re-rated in the past few years on the back of strong volume and earnings growth led by volume and margin expansion. It is one of the most expensive automobile stocks, but we believe the premium is justified because of continuous outperformance on volume and margin fronts. The stock currently trades at 29x FY19E, at a premium to its peers. We believe the company will continue to report strong 25% earnings CAGR over FY17-FY19E led by 20% volume CAGR and margin expansion. We have assigned Buy rating to EML with a SOTP-based target price of Rs32,566, up 16% from the current market price (35x FY19E EPS of Royal Enfield and 15x FY19E EPS of VECV). Exhibit 1: One-year forward P/E band (x) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 14 15 16 17 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 14 15 16 17 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Mar Mar Mar Mar Nov Nov Nov Nov Sep Sep Sep Sep May May May May PE Mean 1SD -1SD Source: Bloomberg, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Exhibit 2: SOTP valuation of Eicher Motors FY19E Royal Enfield’s EPS (Rs/share) 896 P/E (x) 35 Royal Enfield- standalone 31,364 Eicher Motor’s stake in VECV EPS @ 54.4% stake (Rs/share) 80 P/E (x) 15 VECV share 1,202 Total 32,566 Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Exhibit 3: Top five institutional shareholders of EML Name Holding (%) Capital Group Companies Inc 5.4 Citigroup Global Markets 2.0 Blackrock 1.7 Vanguard Group 1.6 TIAA-CREF 0.8 Source: Bloomberg Exhibit 4: Comparative valuation PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/B (x) FY17 FY18E FY19E FY17 FY18E FY19E FY17 FY18E FY19E Bajaj Auto 21.2 19.5 16.6 17.0 15.6 28.2 4.8 4.9 4.2 Hero MotoCorp 22.2 19.3 17.5 15.2 13.6 25.8 7.4 6.7 5.6 TVS Motors 48.5 37.4 33.9 32.8 24.4 42.9 11.2 9.3 7.7 Royal Enfield 48.9 37.9 31.3 34.6 26.4 21.6 19.5 15.1 11.0 Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research 2 Eicher Motors Institutional Equities Investment Rationale Volume growth expected to continue Royal Enfield’s volume growth in the past few years has been phenomenal, posting 51% CAGR over FY11- FY17. Consistent strong demand has outpaced supply resulting in a strong order book for the company, but with capacity expansion and a rising base the order book currently stands at ~1.5 – 2.0 months. The company will commence production from its new plant at Vallam Vadgal in Chennai by August 2017, which will further result in higher despatches to customers. We believe EML has more legs to grow in the coming years as Royal Enfield’s market share is just 5.9% of the over 11mn domestic motorcycle industry volume in India. Strong replacement demand, uptrade of existing two-heeler base to premium segment bikes, strong dealer expansion, rising exports and marketing initiatives should result in double-digit volume growth momentum for Royal Enfield in the coming years. We expect 20% volume CAGR for Royal Enfield over FY17-FY19E. Exhibit 5: Royal Enfield’s growth drivers New products and capacity expansion Dealer Replacement expansion demand Royal Enfield’s growth drivers over FY18/FY19 Uptrading of existing two- Exports wheeler users to high-end bikes Limited competition Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Exhibit 6: Royal Enfield’s monthly volume run-rate Exhibit 7: Royal Enfield’s annual volume trend (units) (units) (%) 12,00,000 120 70,000 63,160 98.5 9,63,433 60,000 10,00,000 100 8,25,092 50,000 8,00,000 70.0 80 6,66,490 40,000 57.0 6,01,000 6,00,000 52.0 60 30,000 20,000 4,00,000 3,02,757 40 23.8 8,705 10.9 10,000 1,78,121 16.8 2,00,000 1,13,432 20 0 - 0 CY12 CY13 CY14 FY16 (15 FY17 FY18E FY19E Jun2013 Jun2014 Jun2015 Jun2016 Jun2017 Jun2012 Mar 2014Mar 2016Mar 2017Mar Mar 2013Mar 2015Mar Sep2012 2012Dec Sep2013 Sep2014 2014Dec Sep2015 2016Dec Dec 2015Dec Sep2016 Dec 2013Dec months) RE total volume Growth (RHS) Royal Enfield volume Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research New products and capacity expansion to support volume growth Currently Royal Enfield is struggling to meet its existing demand as it faces capacity constraints which should start easing once the third plant comes on stream in August 2017 at Vallam Vadagal.
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