November 2016 - Volume 11, No 121 Ski resort inspired by an igloo in Shemshak, Iran Summary Equity Market In October, the market regained the peak it last touched in May 2016, once again hitting the 80,000 mark. During October some 80% of companies listed on the TSE released their Q2 earnings and half-year financial reports, as well as their projections for the third and fourth quarters of the Iranian calendar year 1395. Economic Review This issue reviews Iran’s macroeconomic outlook according to results of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce sur- vey and outlines a summary of developments in the petrochemical sector. In addition, we have included sections covering the latest macroeconomic data published by relevant organizations and senior macroeconomic strate- gists in a factsheet report, as well as the economic calendar released by local and international statistics centers. 1 Iran Investment Monthly Table of Contents 3 Market Overview 3 Market Commentary 5 Market Snapshot 6 TSE & Junior Market Performance 7 Top Ranked Companies 8 TSE Statistics 8 FX Movements 9 Economic Review 9 Official Economic Growth 11 Economic Data 12 Turquoise Partners 12 About Turquoise Partners 16 News & Views 2 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview November 2016 - Volume 11, No 121 Market Commentary In October, the market regained the peak it last touched and their forecasts were higher than expected, helping in May 2016, once again hitting the 80,000 mark. Valua- to boost the index by 2% (in US$ terms) over the month. tions are reflecting investors’ positive outlook and growth The overall level of investors’ optimism and confidence expectations, as indicated by the market’s average P/E in the market is on the rise, especially supported by the ratio which is standing at around 7.6, some two points positive performance of commodity markets across the higher than the long-term average. During October some globe. Around half of the companies listed on the TSE 80% of companies listed on the TSE released their Q2 are closely tied to international commodity markets, earnings and half-year financial reports, as well as their such as base metals, oil and petrochemicals, meaning projections for the third and fourth quarters of the Iranian the movements of share prices in these sectors are calendar year 1395. Both the reported performances highly correlated with the global performance and out- Tehran Stock Exchange & Junior Market Trade by Value Iran Farabourse (Junior Market) Trade Volume (million US$) Tehran Stock Exchange (Main Market) Trade Volume (million US$) Million US$ Source: Tehran Stock Exchange Iran Farabourse Company All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the free market rate look of the commodity markets. The positive movement money that have so far been able to find their way into of these international markets, combined with better Iran. Although many large corporate investment deals than expected results and projections for the remainder continue to be signed, the unwillingness of international of the year, have given the TSE index a lift. Much of banks to carry out transactions with Iran continues to the optimism found in the market in October stemmed limit the inflow of investment in both corporate and pub- from what was seen as the almost certain election of lic markets. Meanwhile foreign interest in Iran continues Hillary Clinton as the next US president, but early No- to build at a very fast pace. TOTAL and China’s CNPC vember delivered the shock that many people within and have signed a preliminary heads of agreement to devel- connected to Iran did not want. However on November op Phase 11 of Iran’s South Pars gas field – the largest 9, the day after the US election when Donald Trump’s strategic deal to be reached in post-sanctions Iran to victory was confirmed, the Tehran stock market fell by date. The project is expected to produce 50 million cu- only 2.5% and subsequently recovered by +0.5% in the bic meters of gas per day by 2020, with total value of following week ending mid-November. the 20-year contract estimated at 5-6 billion US$. The The remarkably defensive nature of the Iranian market contract was written under the new Iranian Petroleum can be explained by the very small amounts of foreign Contract (IPC) model. TOTAL will have a 50.1% stake 3 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview November 2016 - Volume 11, No 121 in the project and will be operator, while CNPC will hold exposed on the market recently. The majority of banks 30% and Petropars, a subsidiary of the National Iranian suffer from ratios far below Basel II and Basel III interna- Oil Company, 19.9%. The South Pars field has 14 trillion tional standards. The average capital adequacy ratio of cubic meters of gas reserves. It is currently producing Iranian banks is 4%, whereas according to international 450 million cubic meters of gas per day, and this figure financial soundness indicators, the standard of capital is expected to rise to 520 million by March 2017 and 700 adequacy ratios in Basel II and Basel III are above 8% million by the end of 2018. This renewed influx of foreign and 12%, respectively. Three large banks -- Saderat, investment has helped revive confidence in the local Mellat and Tejarat -- were barred by the Central Bank market, resulting in some strong economic indicators. of Iran from distributing their approved dividends for last Recent figures show that bank lending in the first half year due to their low capital adequacy ratios. The trading of the Iranian year rose 45.4% compared with last year ticker of the three Iranian banks has been suspended when Iran was facing a severe credit crunch. Even more and trading in these three banks has been stopped tem- impressive is the rise in Iranian non-oil exports to China porarily by the Security Exchange Organization. These which showed 18% growth in the first seven months of recent actions by the CBI and SEO highlight the mar- the year. Central Bank data for the first quarter of the ket response to the serious problems which began in Iranian calendar year showed economic growth of 5.4%. the banking sector five years ago when sanctions were Whilst part of this strong recovery came from oil output, tightened. The Central Bank is attempting to regulate the which is now approaching pre-sanctions levels, the non- banks by measuring their financial health against stan- oil sector also contributed heavily, with the value of non- dards used in the international financial system. Accord- oil exports exceeding oil exports for the first time since ing to CBI officials, the ranking of operating banks is in 1979. progress and will soon be made public. The CBI also has a firm plan to induce banks to raise capital next year Banking Sector in order to boost the capital adequacy ratio. Increasing The banking sector, which has been suffering from a the transparency of financial information available to in- lack of liquidity and low capital adequacy ratios for the vestors and the need to raise new capital will create a past couple of years, has seen these internal stresses significant incentive for banks to conform to regulations. Weekly Sector Performance** Best Performing Sectors Rubber & Plastics 18.7 Oil Products 9.5 Cement 8.0 Worst Performing Sectors Insurance 7.9 Food (ex. sugar) 5.7 Pharmaceuticals -0.7 Automotive -1.7 Machinery & Equipment -1.7 Leather Production -3.9 Machinery & Electrics -7.7 Source: Tehran Stock Exchange, Firouzeh Asia Brokerage. * All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the free market rate, unless otherwise indicated. ** Weekly data as of trading week ending 27 October 2016. 4 Iran Investment Monthly Market Overview November 2016 - Volume 11, No 121 Market Snapshot Iran & Regional Markets Iran: A 20 Year Snapshot, Asset Class Returns in US$ (%) P/E Multiple Comparison Far outliers GOLD Near outliers MSCI Morocco 19.1 Kuwait 15.7 Median Qatar 13.4 Mean Shade: 95% confidence PROPERTY MSCI Arabian Markets 13.0 MSCI GCC Countries 12.9 Near outliers Far outliers MSCI Egypt 13.2 TEDPIX Saudi Arabia 12.3 UAE 9.5 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Iran 7.6 Returns in US$ (%) Turquoise Iran Fund 7.4 TEDPIX Tehran Exchange Dividend Price Index Iran Composite, as of Aug 2016 All figures in US$ are converted from IRR at the free market rate Iran & International Markets 3 4 Tehran Stock Exchange MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI Frontier Markets Average P/E Average P/E Average P/E 7.6 14.94 12.2 1 Annual Performance in $ Annual Performance in $ Annual Performance in $ 21.4% 9.3% -2.6% 2 Annualized 10 Year in $ Annualized 10 Year in $ Annualized 10 Year in $ 10.4% 3.5% -0.4% 20.4 Chemicals 24.1 Financial Sector 43.4 Financials 11.5 Monetary Intermediation 23.6 Information Technology 13.5 Telecom. Services 8.9 Basic Metals 10.4 Consumer Dis. 11.5 Consumer Staples 8.2 Post & Telecommunications 7.7 Consumer Staples 8.7 Energy 6.9 Refined Petroleum 7.7 Energy 7.1 Materials Sector Breakdown (%) 44.1 Others Sector Breakdown (%) 26.5 Others Sector Breakdown (%) 15.9 Others 1.TEDPIX Tehran Exchange Dividend Price Index (Dividend & Price Index) performance calculated in US$ for the Period of October 2015 to October 2016 2.TEDPIX Tehran Exchange Dividend Price Index (Dividend & Price Index)10 year annualized performance calculated in US$ 3.MSCI Emerging Markets Index (US$) - October 2016 4.MSCI Frontier Markets Index (US$) - October 2016 Source: Tehran Stock Exchange - Central Bank of Iran - MSCI Inc., Kamcoonline.