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Root Little Thompson River Hydrologic Analysis

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Root Little Thompson River Hydrologic Analysis Final Report Little Thompson River Hydrologic Analysis Prepared for Colorado Department of Transportation August 2014 9191 S. Jamaica Street Englewood, CO 80112 Contents Section Page Acronyms and Abbreviations .............................................................................................................. v Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... ES-1 1.0 Purpose and Objective ........................................................................................................ 1-1 1.1 Background ...................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.2 Project Area Description .................................................................................................. 1-1 1.2.1 Little Thompson River ......................................................................................... 1-1 1.2.2 West Fork Little Thompson River ........................................................................ 1-1 1.3 Mapping ........................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.4 Data Collection ................................................................................................................. 1-2 1.5 Flood History .................................................................................................................... 1-2 2.0 Hydrologic Analyses ............................................................................................................ 2-1 2.1 Previous Studies ............................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1.1 Little Thompson River Hydrology Analysis – I-25 Frontage Road Mile Marker 249.847, Weld County, Colorado (CDOT, 2011) .................................................. 2-1 2.2 Stream Gage Analysis ....................................................................................................... 2-3 2.3 Peak Flow Estimates ........................................................................................................ 2-3 2.4 Rainfall-Runoff Modeling ................................................................................................. 2-4 2.4.1 Overall Modeling Approach ................................................................................ 2-4 2.4.2 Summary of Modeling Approaches Considered ................................................. 2-5 2.4.3 Basin Delineation ................................................................................................ 2-5 2.4.4 Basin Characterization ........................................................................................ 2-6 2.4.5 Model Development ........................................................................................... 2-6 2.4.6 Model Calibration ............................................................................................... 2-8 2.4.7 Predictive Model Implementation .................................................................... 2-10 3.0 Hydrologic Model Results .................................................................................................... 3-1 3.1 Estimate of Design Flow Magnitudes .............................................................................. 3-1 3.2 Comparison to Previous Studies ...................................................................................... 3-2 4.0 Conclusions and Recommendations..................................................................................... 4-1 4.1 Assessment of September 2013 Event ............................................................................ 4-1 5.0 References .......................................................................................................................... 5-1 Tables ES-1 Little Thompson River Comparison of Modeled Discharges to Observed Discharges ES-2 Little Thompson River Estimate of September 2013 High-Flow Recurrence Interval 1 Data Collected for the Little Thompson River 2 Little Thompson Physical-based Peak Flow Observations 3 Little Thompson River Comparison of Modeled Discharges to Observed Discharges 4 Little Thompson River Modeled 10, 4, 2, 1, and 0.2 Percent Chance Peak Discharge 5 Little Thompson River Modeled 10, 4, 2, 1, and 0.2 Percent Chance Unit Peak Discharge 6 Predictive Model Comparison at the Little Thompson River Downstream of Confluence with West Fork Little Thompson 7 Calibrated Model Comparison 8 Little Thompson River Estimate of September 2013 High-Flow Recurrence Interval iii CONTENTS, CONTINUED Tables – Appendix B: B-1 Little Thompson River Subbasin Area B-2 Little Thompson River Rainfall Depths B-3 Dimensionless Values of Cumulative Rainfall for NRCS Type II Storm B-4 Little Thompson River Lag Time Parameters for the Predictive Model B-5 Little Thompson River Land Use Conditions B-6 Little Thompson River Curve Numbers B-7 Little Thompson River Proposed Model Results Summary Figures ES-1 Little Thompson River Overview Map B-1 Vicinity and Watershed Map (Appendix B) B-2 Physical-based Evaluation and Gage Locations (Appendix B) B-3 Little Thompson 10 Day Calibration Rainfall vs Discharge (Appendix B) B-4 AWA – 10 Day Precipitation (Appendix B) B-5 NRCS 24-hour Type II Unit Hyetograph (Appendix B) B-6 Land Use Map (Appendix B) B-7 Soil Data Map (Appendix B) B-8 Connectivity Map (Appendix B) B-9 Muskingum-Cunge Eight-Point Routing Cross Sections (Appendix B) B-10 Little Thompson September 2013 Rainfall (Appendix B) B-11 Hydrographs at Key Design Locations (Appendix B) B-12 Peak Flow Profiles (Appendix B) B-13 Comparison of 1 Percent Chance Discharges for Little Thompson (Appendix B) B-14 1 Percent Annual Chance Peak Unit Discharge versus Subbasin Area (Appendix B) Appendices Appendix A – FEMA Information Appendix B – Hydrologic Analysis Appendix C – Project Correspondence and Response to Review Comments Appendix D – Digital Data (on CD) iv Acronyms and Abbreviations AMC Antecedent Moisture Condition AWA Applied Weather Associates CDOT Colorado Department of Transportation CDWR Colorado Division of Water Resources cfs cubic feet per second CN curve number CWCB Colorado Water Conservation Board FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency FIRM Flood Insurance Rate Map FIS Federal Insurance Study GIS geographic information system HEC-HMS Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System I-25 Interstate 25 LiDAR Light Detection and Ranging LULC Land Use and Land Cover NED National Elevation Dataset NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NRCS Natural Resources Conservation Service SCS Soil Conservation Service SPAS Storm Precipitation Analysis System US 36 U.S. Route 36 USACE U.S. Army Corps of Engineers USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture USGS U.S. Geological Survey v Executive Summary In late summer 2013, the Colorado Front Range experienced an extensive rainstorm event spanning approximately 10 days from September 9 to September 18. The event generated widespread flooding as the long-duration storm saturated soils and increased runoff potential. Flooding resulted in substantial erosion, bank widening, and realigning of stream channels; transport of mud, rock, and debris; failures of dams; landslides; damage to roads, bridges, utilities, and other public infrastructure; and flood impacts to many residential and commercial structures. Ten fatalities were attributed to the floods. During and immediately following the rainstorm event, the Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) engaged in a massive flood response effort to protect the traveling public, rebuild damaged roadways and bridges to reopen critical travel corridors, and engage in assessments and analyses to guide longer-term rebuilding efforts. As part of this effort, CDOT partnered with the Colorado Water Conservation Board (CWCB) to initiate hydrologic analyses in several key river systems impacted by the floods. The work was contracted to three consultant teams led by the following firms: Boulder Creek, Little Thompson River CH2M HILL Big Thompson River, St. Vrain Creek, Lefthand Creek Jacobs Coal Creek, South Platte River URS The purpose of the analyses is to determine the approximate magnitude of the September flood event in key locations throughout the watershed and to prepare estimates of peak discharge that can guide the design of permanent roadway and other infrastructure improvements along the impacted streams. These estimates of peak discharges for various return periods will be shared with local floodplain administrators for their consideration in revising or updating any current regulatory discharges. The primary tasks of the hydrologic analyses include the following: 1. Estimate peak discharges that were believed to have occurred during the flood event at key locations along the study streams. Summarize these discharges along with estimates provided by others in comparison to existing regulatory discharges. Document the approximate return period associated with the September flood event based on current regulatory discharges. 2. Prepare rainfall-runoff models of the study watersheds, input available rainfall data representing the September rainstorm, and calibrate results to provide correlation to estimated peak discharges. 3. Prepare updated flood frequency analyses using available gage data and incorporate the estimated peak discharges from the September event. 4. Use
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