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Securing Energy Interests: How to Protect Energy Sectors in Bulgaria from Russian Manipulation

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Securing Energy Interests: How to Protect Energy Sectors in Bulgaria from Russian Manipulation Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive DSpace Repository Theses and Dissertations 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items 2019-12 SECURING ENERGY INTERESTS: HOW TO PROTECT ENERGY SECTORS IN BULGARIA FROM RUSSIAN MANIPULATION Pombar, Alexander J. Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/64051 Downloaded from NPS Archive: Calhoun NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS SECURING ENERGY INTERESTS: HOW TO PROTECT ENERGY SECTORS IN BULGARIA FROM RUSSIAN MANIPULATION by Alexander J. Pombar December 2019 Thesis Advisor: Kalev I. Sepp Second Reader: Daniel A. Nussbaum Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Form Approved OMB REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington, DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED (Leave blank) December 2019 Master's thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS SECURING ENERGY INTERESTS: HOW TO PROTECT ENERGY SECTORS IN BULGARIA FROM RUSSIAN MANIPULATION 6. AUTHOR(S) Alexander J. Pombar 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT Monterey, CA 93943-5000 NUMBER 9. SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND 10. SPONSORING / ADDRESS(ES) MONITORING AGENCY N/A REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) The Russian government has manipulated distribution of its non-renewable energy supplies to its advantage and to the detriment of bordering states. NATO and the EU lack the focus to counter this energy threat even among their member states. Bulgaria may be the most vulnerable to Russian influence and, as a member of both organizations, requires greater assistance to break its Russian energy shackles. The research analyzes the history of Georgia and Ukraine, with specific emphasis on the 2008 Russo-Georgian War and the current Ukraine Crisis, to reveal how Russia uses dependence on its petroleum reserves to gain a marked advantage over both states. Next, the research compares the two conflicts to the current energy situation in Bulgaria, delves into similarities and differences, and proposes solutions to NATO and the EU for countering Russian manipulation of non-renewable supplies to Bulgaria. The research finds that, while Russia has not recently been in direct conflict with Bulgaria as it has in Ukraine and Georgia, Bulgaria has tremendous vulnerabilities in its energy sector and requires quick intervention by the EU and NATO to increase its energy security. The stronger Bulgaria’s energy sector, the stronger the EU and NATO's influence will be in the Balkans and throughout Europe. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF energy, security, Bulgaria PAGES 117 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. SECURING ENERGY INTERESTS: HOW TO PROTECT ENERGY SECTORS IN BULGARIA FROM RUSSIAN MANIPULATION Alexander J. Pombar Major, United States Army BA, Virginia Polytechnic Institute, 2008 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN DEFENSE ANALYSIS (IRREGULAR WARFARE) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December 2019 Approved by: Kalev I. Sepp Advisor Daniel A. Nussbaum Second Reader Kalev I. Sepp Chair, Department of Defense Analysis iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT The Russian government has manipulated distribution of its non-renewable energy supplies to its advantage and to the detriment of bordering states. NATO and the EU lack the focus to counter this energy threat even among their member states. Bulgaria may be the most vulnerable to Russian influence and, as a member of both organizations, requires greater assistance to break its Russian energy shackles. The research analyzes the history of Georgia and Ukraine, with specific emphasis on the 2008 Russo-Georgian War and the current Ukraine Crisis, to reveal how Russia uses dependence on its petroleum reserves to gain a marked advantage over both states. Next, the research compares the two conflicts to the current energy situation in Bulgaria, delves into similarities and differences, and proposes solutions to NATO and the EU for countering Russian manipulation of non-renewable supplies to Bulgaria. The research finds that, while Russia has not recently been in direct conflict with Bulgaria as it has in Ukraine and Georgia, Bulgaria has tremendous vulnerabilities in its energy sector and requires quick intervention by the EU and NATO to increase its energy security. The stronger Bulgaria’s energy sector, the stronger the EU and NATO’s influence will be in the Balkans and throughout Europe. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. THE RUSSIAN DILEMMA .................................................................................1 A. PROBLEM .................................................................................................1 B. RESEARCH QUESTION .........................................................................4 C. BACKGROUND ........................................................................................4 D. LITERATURE REVIEW .........................................................................6 1. Strategic Vision ..............................................................................6 2. Russian Hybrid Warfare ...............................................................7 3. Russian Hybrid Warfare in the Balkans .....................................9 4. The European Energy Sector ......................................................10 5. Methodology .................................................................................11 II. GEORGIAN HISTORY AND ENERGY ..........................................................15 A. INTRODUCTION....................................................................................15 B. RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN GEOPOLITICAL HISTORY .......................15 C. BUILDUP TO THE RUSSO-GEORGIAN WAR .................................26 D. WAR IN GEORGIA ................................................................................29 E. THE WAR’S AFTERMATH ..................................................................30 F. GEORGIAN ENERGY STRENGTHS AND VULNERABILITIES ..............................................................................31 G. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................37 III. UKRAINIAN HISTORY AND ENERGY .........................................................39 A. INTRODUCTION....................................................................................39 B. THE BEGINNINGS OF THE KIEVAN RUS’ AND THE COSSACK ................................................................................................39 C. MAZEPA AND THE EXPANSION OF THE RUSSIAN EMPIRE....................................................................................................44 D. DEVELOPMENT OF THE UKRAINIAN IDENTITY .......................47 E. THE BOLSHEVIKS, WORLD WARS, AND A TASTE OF INDEPENDENCE....................................................................................49 F. POST-WAR LIFE UNDER THE SOVIETS .........................................55 G. LEAD UP TO WAR.................................................................................58 H. WAR ..........................................................................................................60 I. UKRAINIAN ENERGY STRENGTHS AND VULNERABILITIES ..............................................................................62 J. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................66 vii IV. IMPROVING ENERGY SECURITY IN BULGARIA....................................69 A. INTRODUCTION....................................................................................69 B. BULGARIAN HISTORY ........................................................................70 C. BULGARIAN ENERGY STRENGTHS AND VULNERABILITIES ..............................................................................79 D. COMPARISON AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................83 1. Decrease Corruption ....................................................................84 2. Diversifying Supplies ...................................................................85
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