Autumn 2012 Atmospheric Circulation Newsletter of the Atmospheric Sciences Department

The Weather Challenge by Lynn McMurdie he UW Atmospheric Sciences spring Tforecast contest has been an annual tradition in the department for many years. It’s a time when faculty and students alike agonize over whether there will be a marine push or a convergence zone wrecking their forecast for maximum temperature and precipitation probability at SeaTac. The winner earns department-wide recognition with their name engraved on a trophy, and the respect (or envy!) of their fellow forecasters. Now imagine forecasting for a wide-variety of cities across the United States and competing against thousands of other contestants from many other universities and institutions across the country. That’s just what a group of intrepid undergraduate and graduate students did this past year. For the first time, University of Washington entered a team in the national WxChallenge. The WxChallenge contest was developed A few of this year’s participants. From left: Xiaojuan Liu, Jack Neukirchen, Hannah Barnes, by the University of Oklahoma and officially started in 2006 when it replaced the National Jen DeHart, Elizabeth Maroon, Lynn McMurdie, Magdalena Szabo and Ken Dixon. Collegiate Weather Forecast contest. The goal of challenges. Often impromptu discussions would slipped into 3rd place. Aaron Hill, a recent 2012 the WxChallenge is to make the best forecast of erupt in the computer lab or someone’s office grad, had the top score in the nation for wind the next day’s maximum temperature, minimum when tricky forecasts were looming overhead at Riverton, WY. Elizabeth Maroon, a 2nd year temperature, maximum sustained wind, and (“Should I go 32F or 31F for the min?,” “Will graduate student and experienced WxChallenge accumulated precipitation at a designated city. there be sea breeze convection at Miami?,” forecaster from her undergraduate days at MIT, Forecasts are made over a two-week period for “Do I believe the GFS’s or NAM’s timing on was the top finisher for our UW team, finishing each preselected city. The 2011–2012 contest that frontal rain?”). Most importantly, our own 102nd out of more than 1,800 participants. included Miami FL, Riverton WY, Dayton local webpage was set up with many valuable Plans are in place to enter a team in next OH, Juneau AL, Erie PA, New Orleans LA, links to weather data and numerical model year’s WxChallenge. Our goals are to perform Providence RI, Albuquerque NM, Hilo HI and graphics. In particular, Luke Madaus, a 2nd even better than last year, to continue to improve Lincoln NB. This variety of locations presented year graduate student, created a very useful our locally-generated verification graphics, and our forecasters with practically every weather verification graphics webpage. It was updated to recruit dedicated, enthusiastic undergraduate challenge possible from tropical convection, every hour for the current city and included and graduate students. Past participants found snowstorms, high wind events, and frontal statistics of how the Model Output Statistics it an enjoyable and valuable way to learn the passages to lake effect snow, dust storms, (MOS, a statistically produced forecast based nuances of forecasting and especially appreciated and sea breezes. Each participant’s forecast is on numerical model forecasts generated by the the camaraderie experienced between faculty, scored against verification. Like our local spring National Weather Service for stations across the graduate, and undergraduate team members. For forecast contest, the lower the score, the better country) was performing, and his own ensemble more information about the 2012–2013 contest, the forecast. Those individuals with the fewest Kalman filter and analog ensemble forecasts. please see the WxChallenge webpage at http:// points for each city and for the entire contest So how did the UW Atmospheric Sciences wxchallenge.com/index.php or contact Lynn receive trophies. In addition, the school with team fair in this competitive contest? With McMurdie ([email protected]. the best overall team score receives bragging- a group of 10 undergraduate and graduate edu) or Elizabeth Maroon (emaroon@atmos. rights and a trophy that can be displayed at their students (and one lone faculty member) in the washington.edu). institution for the year. fall and 25 team members in the spring, UW Unlike our local spring forecast contest, placed 10th out of more than 50 institutions, the WxChallenge is a decidedly collaborative Acknowledgements: Special thanks to Elizabeth with several individuals doing extremely well Maroon for talking me into taking on the affair. In order to facilitate success for all at specific cities. Jack Neukirchen, a freshman UW team members, there were several group WxChallenge, actively recruiting undergraduate straight out of Atmos. Sci. 101, nearly won the and graduate students alike, and for acting as activities. We held weekly meetings to discuss freshman/sophomore division for New Orleans. the climatology and forecasting challenges for team administrator. Also kudos to Luke Madaus The entire team watched the observations for his verification graphics development and for the current city. A mentor program was set up hourly hoping Jack’s bold forecast for a cold to match experienced forecasters with novices mentoring undergraduate students in forecasting minimum temperature would verify. Alas, and computer programming. in order to guide the new forecaster through Jack’s hopes were dashed when the cold air was the forecast process and to talk about the day’s held up; the temperature failed to drop and he (WxChallenge—Continued on page 2)

1 Department of Atmospheric Sciences

WxChallenge, cont. from page 2

Comparison of observed high temperature (black) to GFS MOS forecast high temperature (dark gray) and Kalman filter forecast of high temperature (dashed light gray) for the past 10 days at Pensacola, FL. The GFS MOS forecast for the following day is 89°F (top right number in box on figure). The MOS forecast has been experiencing a warm bias for most of the past 10 days since the black line is lower than the gray line. Therefore the forecaster might want to make a cooler forecast than GFS MOS based on it’s past performance and indeed, the Kalman filter makes this adjustment and has a forecast of 86.2°F for the following day (bottom right number in box).

Chair’s Column spheric Sciences. It provides a fascinating Department News account of how the small program on meteorol- hen I first arrived at the University ogy and climatology developed, in large measure ssociate Professor Cecilia Bitz did Wof Washington in Spring 1999, I was due to Bob’s leadership, into the research pow- Aweb casts in Churchill, Canada, on the given an office on the third floor of ATG. Con- erhouse it is today. The department continues to tundra with polar bear biologists the week of way Leovy was in the office next to mine, and grow in scope, with our newest faculty member, Nov. 8, 2011. A teleconference was arranged next to him was Bob Fleagle. I remember see- Abigail Swann, bringing research interests in for her 501 class as well. Check out Scientists ing Bob sitting behind a fantastic oak desk, and biosphere-climate interactions. Our recent grad- and Explorers Blog (Nov. 10, 2011, http://www. thinking that he looked like the captain at the uates continue to find very successful careers in polarbearsinternational.org/news-room/​ helm of a ship. I made some discrete inquiries academia, government labs, and private indus- scientists-and-explorers-blog/sea-ice-and- about the fate of the desk after Bob no longer try. Looking toward the future, we have plans polar-bears) and UW Today (Jan. 25, 2012, needed it, and left it at that. Thirteen years later, to increasing the size of our undergraduate pro- http://www.washington.edu/news/articles/ I bumped into our department administrator, gram, and to make our graduate program acces- injecting-sulfate-particles-into-stratosphere- Scott Sipes, who asked if I had any ideas about sible to a larger group of students. wont-fully-offset-climate-change). finding a home for a beautiful old oak desk. A Budget pressures make these plans difficult Emeritus Professor Robert Charlson was deeply recessed memory immediately came to to realize, as financial support continues to interviewed for Columns (June 2012) by Julie life–I knew of only one beautiful old oak desk shift from the state to students in the form of Garner entitled “A Patent Success” as the co- in this department! So I am happy to report that increased tuition. We would like to offer stu- inventor of the first UW-held patent that brought the desk has “come home” to the Chair’s office dents more financial support to help offset this royalties to the UW. The article can be found in ATG 408. sudden increase in tuition and, at the gradu- online at http://www.washington.edu/alumni/ Sitting at Bob’s old desk inspired me to read ate level, to remain competitive with private columns-magazine/june-2012/face-time/. He his book Eyewitness: Evolution of the Atmo- institutions that have much deeper pockets for was also interviewed on KING 5 TV’s Evening recruiting the best stu- Magazine, “UW Celebrates 150 Years” on the dents. If you would like segment “UW Inventions and Innovations,” to make a difference with which was broadcast in May. As the King Carl your charitable giving, XVI Gustaf Professor of Environmental Scienc- contributions to support es (1999–2000), he was a speaker at The Royal students have a substan- Professors’ Symposium on Global Sustainabil- tial, very real, impact. On ity in Sweden on March 22, 2012. that note I would like to Faculty Awards and Honors—The very thank all of you that have prestigious American Meteorological Society donated in the past. We Jule G. Charney Award was given to Professor deeply appreciate your Christopher S. Bretherton. The department’s support and interest in our teaching award for 2011–12 was awarded to mission of discovery and Assistant Professor Dargan Frierson at the education in atmospheric spring social. Professor Robert A. Houze has sciences. And please been elected as a Fellow of the American Geo- stay in touch–we love to physical Union. Professor Clifford Mass has hear the latest news from been elected as a member of the Washington friends and alumni! State Academy of Sciences. Professor Peter Greg Hakim Rhines was named a 2011–12 Fulbright Scholar in Environmental Sciences. Professor John M. Greg Hakim behind the Fleagle desk. Wallace was elected as an Honorary Member of (Departmental News—Continued on page 3)

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change experiments (see below), a suite of Atmos Outreach Broadens chaos and predictability demos developed Its Horizons by Prof. Dale Durran, and a portable, edu- cational rotating tank built by grad student by Jack Scheff and Chris Terai Elizabeth Maroon. We had a great time Grad Students and Outreach Coordinators interacting with kids and adults at these events and hope to return next year! very year, our volunteer K-12 outreach Second, the invitation to NASA’s Cli- Eprogram (www.atmos.uw.edu/~outreach) mate Day prompted grad students Stu connects to dozens of schools, camps and events Evans, Bryce Harrop, Ben Hillman, Kelly with hands-on science demos and talks. In this McCusker, Max Menchaca, and Chris respect, the 2011–12 academic year was no Terai, and Prof. Dargan Frierson to develop exception: at least 19 of our graduate students, two new, hands-on, simple demos relating two undergrads, one postdoc, and three professors to climate change, and an accompanying collectively volunteered for 30 different school poster illustrating the basic story of CO2 science nights, career days, class field trips to in the environment. Over the course of a ATG, and other educational events located any- month and a half this spring, they perfected where from Edmonds to Renton. The field trips an ocean-acidification activity that uses the and class visits alone served about 475 K‑9th participants’ breath to acidify regular tap grade students, with hundreds more stopping water, plus an infrared demo that shows by and participating during the science nights. how visible and infrared light transmit dif- Thank you so much to everyone who donated ferently through various household mate- their time and gas to help kids get excited about rials using IR thermometers. This finally science, weather and the atmosphere! filled the outreach program’s long-stand- However, we also want to highlight two new ing need for easy climate activities, and is and exciting developments in Outreach’s reper- very much appreciated. These demos have A child at the Pacific Science Center talks toire and mission this spring. First, we exhibited now been adopted into our core repertoire to grad student Eowyn Baughman about the at four large, multi-hour public science events alongside can-crushing and cloud-in-a- double pendulum (at right) and our bottle, and we hope they will engage folks drawing people of all ages from all over the hard-to-predict weather. Puget Sound area. These were the UW “PAWS- for many years to come. On Science” weekend at the Pacific Science As a final note, the movie team has fin- www.youtube.com/user/UWAtmosOutreach— Center (pictured), NASA’s Climate Day at the ished filming its latest YouTube video! Direc- we now have more than 8,000 views! Museum of Flight, the Seattle Science Festi- tor and grad student Bryce Harrop tells us Thank you so much again to everyone who val, and the HuskyFest (UW’s 150th birthday that it’s in post-production and is due out this has volunteered this year, and we hope next year weekend). Visitors were able to try a range of fall. The topic is Ocean Acidification. For will be better yet! atmospheric activities, including our traditional previous films in the series (see the article cloud and air pressure demos, two new climate- in last year’s newsletter), go to our channel, Drones over Hurricanes of the storms. The Global Hawks fly at 50-60,000 Departmental News, cont. from page 2 feet and stay in the air for 30 hours at a time, so the American Meteorological Society. by Prof. Robert Houze they can monitor a storm much longer than a The Langley Hill Coastal Radar dedication piloted aircraft. The pilots and scientists work rofessor Houze has recently been funded ceremony was attended by Professors Clifford on the ground by monitoring the aircraft’s posi- as a member of NASA’s Hurricane Sci- Mass and Dale Durran on September 29, 2011. P tion and data remotely. This project will forever ence Team to participate in a groundbreaking Mass’ web page on the radar is at http://www. change the way hurricanes are investigated by program to fly large drone aircraft over the tops atmos.washington.edu/~cliff/Langleyradar.html. aircraft. Professor Houze and his graduate stu- of hurricanes. NASA has obtained two Global Promotions—David Catling has been pro- dent Jennifer DeHart participated in the first Hawk aircraft that will be used to investigate moted to Professor of Earth and Space Sciences field phase of this project, called the Hurricane hurricanes for the next three years. One Global and Adjunct Professor of Atmospheric Sciences. and Severe Storm Sentinel mission (HS3), dur- Hawk is equipped with dropsondes (like bal- Gregory Hakim has been promoted to Profes- ing September 2012. loon soundings except that the instruments are sor of Atmospheric Sciences and is the depart- dropped from an aircraft) to observe the environ- ment’s new chair. Dargan Frierson has been ment around the storms. Another Global Hawk promoted to Associate Professor of Atmospher- is equipped with radar and other remote-sensing Public Lectures ic Sciences with tenure. instruments to investigate the internal structures he third Peter V. Hobbs Memorial Shout Out to the UW AMS Chapter by the TEndowed Lecture was given on Feb. 7, OAR Northwest Forecasting! Kristen Rasmus- 2012. The speaker was Prof. Owen Brian Toon sen reported that the UW AMS Student Chapter from the Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sci- provided twice daily forecasts for the OAR North- ences, University of Colorado. The lecture was west Expedition (Vancouver Island circumnaviga- entitled “The Anti-Greenhouse Effect Along the tion) that came to a close on May 1. The students Spiral of Geologic Time.” Prof. Richard B. Alley put a lot of time and effort into giving the rowers was invited to visit the department as the Graduate the best possible weather forecasts for their trip. Students’ Distinguished Visiting Lecturer. He The team and organizers of the expedition really gave a public lecture on May 23 entitled “Learn- appreciated our efforts. See the bottom of the blog ing While Burning: Energy, Economy, and Envi- post for a special shout out to the UW AMS chap- ronment.” For more information on our public ter (http://oarnorthwest.com/2012/05/expedition- lectures, see http://www.atmos.washington.edu/ support/). NASA Global Hawk. Courtesy of NASA. alumni.update/lectures.shtml.

3 Department of Atmospheric Sciences In Memoriam Houze’s Group in the Malidives: Norbert Untersteiner A Successful Field Campaign by Axel Schweiger, Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory Ended by a Revolution advisor to numerous Federal agencies. Norbert’s by Prof. Robert Houze dislike for bureaucracy was always outmatched by his ability to maneuver through it and make things work. In 1988, Norbert left PSC to join the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington as its chairman. During his chairmanship, the University of Washington cemented its international leadership in polar research, bringing together expertise from across its campus. In the mid-1990s, Norbert was again in the game, helping to get the SHEBA research pro- gram launched. His experience and insights Kristen Rasmussen (left) and Hannah Barnes helped shape this unique research program which (right) with S-PolKa radar in the background. involved an ice-breaking ship frozen into the Arctic sea ice for a year. Research from this pro- rom the end of September 2011 until the gram has been an immense contribution to cli- Fmiddle of January 2012, Prof. Houze’s group he Arctic is losing its sea ice. Arctic re- mate research. was involved in a major international field campaign. Tsearch lost one of its giants. Norbert Un- Norbert retired in 1997, but his contributions They were on a tiny atoll on the equator in the middle tersteiner passed away on March 14, 2012. to polar research continued until his death. For the of the Indian Ocean. Called Addu, the archipelago Reports about changes in the Arctic are all last 15 years he led the U.S. MEDEA Committee where the group was working is about 10 miles long over the news. Norbert wasn’t a friend of the me- tasked with releasing, in cooperation with Russia, and less than a mile wide, with four little islands con- dia frenzy around every new record. However, it formerly classified information describing Arctic nected by one road. They were living on Gan Island is hard to imagine any serious scientific assess- climate. This effort produced the U.S.-Russian in former RAF barracks that have been converted to ment of these changes without encountering the Atlases that reveal just how much the Arctic en- a low-end resort for scuba divers (metal roofs, just a work of Norbert Untersteiner. vironment has changed in recent decades. More bed, bathroom, and no tv or phone). The UW group was funded to use the NCAR S-PolKa radar, which Norbert is the father of modern day sea ice recently his work with MEDEA yielded public was brought in by ship and set up on Hithadoo Island. physics. He was the station leader of the 1957 access to previously classified high-resolution There they monitored and analyzed the radar data, International Polar Year Arctic drifting station satellite images from U.S. spy satellites. His learning a lot about how convective clouds behave Alpha, the first manned drifting ice station most recent efforts with this group, until just a in this equatorial oceanic environment. Prof. Houze conducted by the West. This experience informed few months ago, were dedicated to applying a was on the atoll for the first 2- months aided by proj- and inspired Norbert’s leadership of the Arctic new autonomous platform, “the wave-glider,” to ect engineer Stacy Brodzik, and UW graduate stu- Ice Dynamics Joint Experiment (AIDJEX) in the Arctic research. An appointment in 1999 as the dents Kristen Rasmussen, and Scott Powell. For the early 1970s. This was truly pioneering research Chapman Professor of Physical Sciences at the second 2-months, recent UW Ph.D., Deanna Hence that required an ambitious field campaign with up University of Alaska, Fairbanks, kept his teaching led the project on site, aided by UW graduate student to four manned camps on the drifting pack ice. It skills honed and allowed him to bring many distin- Hannah Barnes, Dr. Kaustav Chakravarty from , paved the way for subsequent numerical models guished scientists to Fairbanks as guest lecturers. and two graduate students from other universities. of sea ice used in modern climate models which Norbert’s work has helped transform early UW graduate student Angel Adames joined the proj- are used today to predict and understand global concepts of the role of the ice albedo feedback ect for the last month to help with the operation of the climate change. At the conclusion of AIDJEX, in climate change to modern climate models. By Texas A&M SMART-R radar under the direction of Norbert formed the Polar Science Center conducting, guiding, stimulating and coordinat- Prof. Courtney Schumacher, who received her Ph.D. (PSC) at the University of Washington. As the ing research into the fundamentals of sea ice from UW under Prof. Houze in 2003. The island Director of PSC from 1981–1988 he inspired the thermodynamics and dynamics over the course radar observations were obtained in coordination thoughtful integration of logistics, observations, of half a century, he has provided the physical with two ships, two aircraft, and a network of rawin- and modeling, used by PSC in advancing Arctic underpinnings for this critical element of the cli- sonde stations. The goal of the project was to under- research for more than 30 years. mate system. As a scientist who spent a great deal stand how clouds occurring in connection with the In 1979 Norbert helped established the Arc- of time in the field and understood sea ice like Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a major intra­ tic Buoy Program as a contribution to the Global no other, he was never satisfied with how climate seasonal variation of the tropical atmosphere, interact Atmospheric Research Program. This later models represented sea ice. He kept asking hard with the larger-scale atmospheric circulation. Predic- tion of the MJO is a major problem in atmospheric became the International Arctic Buoy Program questions and helped drive improvements. dynamics and better understanding of its interac- (IABP), which has been providing invaluable Norbert remained enthusiastic about science tion with clouds is thought to be needed to improve data on atmospheric temperature and pressure as until his death. He was a frequent visitor and reg- weather and climate forecasting by global models. well as sea ice drift for the past 33 years. This ularly called on PSC scientists to talk about some The data of the project were collected successfully, data set has helped reveal fundamental character- new idea or development. In 2011 he was the co- documenting at least two occurrences of MJO events, istics of sea ice, arctic climate and weather. IABP author of two publications, including a wonder- but the project was ended abruptly in February by a data have been used by thousands of researchers ful review about the state of sea ice research for political insurrection in the . All observations all over the world and are routinely used in global Physics Today. were ended at that time, and scientists were evacua­ted, weather prediction. Anyone who had the pleasure of knowing or as government buildings were being burned down Norbert’s career involved appointments in working with him will remember him as a gifted all over the atoll. Houze’s group had already left by Washington, DC, working with NOAA and ONR scientist, with a quick wit, jocular spirit, and a then, having successfully collected the S-PolKa data. advancing the cause of U.S. and international wonderful intuition for how things work and how Angel was the only one present at the time of the arctic research programs. He served as science to get things done. insurrection, and he was flown home safely.

4 Department of Atmospheric Sciences

The Phil Church Award is given to the gradu- Congratulations to Welcome to New ating senior in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences with the most outstanding record of Graduates Graduate Students scholarship, leadership and service. Professor Doctor of Philosophy for 2012–2013 Phil Church was the founder and first Chair of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences. Barnes-Keys, Elizabeth, Influence of Meridio­ Trevor Morgan, Western Washington nal Constraints and Eddy Feedbacks on University Low-Frequency Variability and Its Response Kimberlee Nighelli, Embry-Riddle University to Climate Change (Hartmann) Lee Picard, University of Miami Undergraduate and Dinh, Tra Phuong, Cirrus and Water Vapor Gregory Quetin, University of Washington Transport in the Tropical Tropopause Layer Rick Russotto, Yale University (Durran) Faculty Research Hence, Deanna A., The Vertical Structure of Viral Shah, Indian Institute of Technology Precipitation in Tropical Cyclones as Seen Bombay The following undergraduate students and fac- by the TRMM Precipitation Radar (Houze) Matthew Woelfle, North Carolina State ulty members worked together during the past University Kirkman, Clark H., IV, The Response of the year: Southern Ocean to Variable Wind Forcing and the Role of Sea Ice (Bitz) Joshua Best / Dargan Frierson: Static Stability Leahy, Louise V., On the Nature and Extent in CMIP5 Simulation. of Optically-Thin Clouds over Land and Scholarships and Ocean (Wood) Steven Brey / Dale Durran: Demonstrating Awards Latent Heating. Master of Science 2012 Top Scholar Award: Steven Brey / Dargan Frierson: Experiments to Gregory Quetin, Rick Russotto Brown, Bonnie, Characteristics of the Show Condensation as a Source of Latent Heat. Variability and Predictability of Three- 2012 American Meteorological Society (AMS) Dimensional Hurricanes in Steady State Fellowship: Tyler Burns / Robert Houze: Hurricane (Hakim) Research (RAINEX). Hillman, Benjamin R., Evaluating Clouds in Kimberlee Nighelli Global Climate Models Using Instrument Kenten Danas / Joel Thornton: Understanding 2012 National Science Foundation (NSF) Simulators (Ackerman) the Impact of the Sacramento Urban Plume Hills, Matthew, Nonstationary Trapped Graduate Research Fellowship Program on the Air Quality of the Sierra Nevada Gravity Lee Waves in a Time Varying Flow (GRFP) Fellowship: (Durran) Maximo Menchaca Foothills. Goldenson, Naomi L., Arctic Climate Response Aaron Hill / Robert Houze: Orographic 2012 National Defense Science and to Light-Absorbing Particles in Snow and Precipitation. Sea Ice in the Community Earth System Engineering Graduate (NDSEG) Fellowship: Model (Bitz) Daniel McCoy Weikun Hu / Dargan Frierson: Precipitation Luan, Yurong, Variability in Long-Range Changes in the 20th and 21st Centurys in Transport of Aerosols from East Asia and 2012 Peter B. Wagner Memorial Award for CMIP5 Simulations. (Jaeglé) Women in Atmospheric Science: Ricardo Humphreys / Robert Wood: Low Po-Chedley, Stephen D., Reconciling Kristen Rasmussen Tropospheric Temperature Trends from the Cloud Statistics from a Regional Climate Microwave Sounding Unit (Fu) 2012 NOAA Climate and Global Change Model. Zatko, Maria C., The Influence of Snow Grain Postdoctoral Fellowship: Judy Twedt / Dargan Frierson: Surface Heat Size and Impurities on the Vertical Profiles Phuong Tra Dinh, Elizabeth Barnes-Keys of Actinic Flux and NOx Emissions on Flux Changes in CMIP5 Simulations. the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets 2012 Mindlin-Reed Scholarship: Eric Wachtendorf / Thomas Ackerman: Data (Alexander) Cory Tung Analysis of the Community Collaborative Data Network, State Climatologist Office. Bachelor of Science 2012 Program on Climate Change (PCC) Justin Walker / Robert Wood: Tropical Fellowship: Joshua Best Tropopause Cirrus Structure Using Airborne Marty Bouma Gregory Quetin William Burns Lidar. Eugene Chan 2012 Weather Research Scholarship: Xiyue Zhang / Cecilia Bitz: Projected Decline Andrew Geiss Steven Brey in Snow Depth on Arctic Sea Ice Caused by Aaron Hill Amy Huang 2012 Atmospheric Sciences Achievement Progressively Later Autumn Open Ocean Ricardo Humphreys Awards: Freeze-up This Century. Charles Ironmonger Aaron Hill, Ricardo Humphreys, Jeffrey Langston Justin Walker Charanjit Pabla Joshua Smith 2012 Phil Church Award: Arturo Urquieta Aaron Hill, Richardo Humphreys Eric Wachtendorf Justin Walker

5 Atmospheric Circulation Donor Recognition The Department of Atmospheric Sciences gratefully acknowledges the donors who have generously supported us during the past fiscal year July 1, 2011 through June 30, 2012.

Individual Donors Ahava & Gary Goldwater Amanda Lindsey David Sarver Gerhard Achtelik Jr. & Lauren Judith Gray Karin Link Tod & Tina Schiff Achitelik Arthur Grunbaum William Lipscomb Wolfram Schmidt Andrew Ackerman Gregory & Lynne Hakim Mario Lopez Janet & Donald Schmitt Thomas & Linda Ackerman Drew & Genevieve Hamilton Arthur Loring Sally Schoenberg & William Rashid Akmaev David Harrell Janet Lowry Poteet Gifford Asher Lynne & Halstead Harrison Mark Lutz Eric & Anna Schoening Henry & Linda Baddley Jr. Lorraine & Dennis Hartmann Mark Maghie & Julie Barbo Richard & Lennie Semonin Sr. Robert Ball Judy Hedreen Graham Mathes Thomas Sheehan Steven Banks Donald Hemme Mark Maurer Catherine Smith Robert Baughman Jay & Deborah Hermsmeier Glenn McCauley & Ellin Huttel Robert Staker David & Lois Bauman Edward Hindman Beverlee McCullough James & Sonja Staley Mark Beaufait & Andrea Slayton Sylvia Hobbs Steve McKenna Raymond Staley Christopher Beck Rod Holappa Socorro Medina & Robert Wood Matthias & Eveline Steiner Dan Becker James & Alma Holcomb Robert & Mary Meye Nicholas Sturm Robert Berkovitz Margaret Holton Jenna Miller & James Hui Su & Zhai Chengxing Harold Bernard Jr. & Christina Karl Holzmuller III Utzschneider Ronald & Mary Surface Hilland-Bernard Charlotte Hopper Justin Minder Jordan Sutton Michael & Diana Biggerstaff Thomas Hunter Joseph Morris Irene Svete John & Connie Bloxom Jr. Wayne Huseby Harry & Elizabeth Muench James Tillman Thomas & Carol Borda Charles Huxford Joanna Muench & Craig Lee Marta Torres Mark & Diana Borges James Illman Wendy & Peter Mullen Steve Upton Shirley & Janet Boselly III Donald & Lisa Immerwahr Steven Mullen & Rita Jackson- Jon Valentine Geoffrey Briggs Nicolas Irving Mullen Kimberly Viebrock & Michael Richard & Suzanne Brintzenhofe Marc Islam Gretchen Mullendore & Gregory Nesteroff Charles & Mary Brock Nicholas Jackman Ostermeier Carol & William Viertel Sally & Thomas Cahill Dan Jaffe James & Michele Murphy Norman & Barbara Wagner John Carrier Roy Jenne Frederick & Judith Murray Justin Walker Chih-Pei & Hedy Chang Stuart Jennings Gerald Myers Robert Waltemate Jason & Janice Ching Don Jensen & Hilary Goodall Eva Nachmanson & Eric Blume Stephen Warren & Phoebe Caner Kathryn & Marc Church Kurt & Michele Johnson Louisa Nance Warren Jean Church Weick & Richard Michael Johnson Thomas Newbauer Marvin & Joan Wayne Weick Richard & LaVonne Johnson Frank & Irene Nishimoto Mary Wieland (D) William Clugston Frederick Jorg Arlett Nordsletten Richard Wieland Donna Cochener-Metcalfe & John & Vivian Karamanian Michael O’Connell Natalie Wilkie Christian Metcalfe Michael & Kristina Katsaros Charles Orwig Michael Winter Ellen Corwin Pamela Keeley Candice Overman Michael Winton & Gretel LaVieri Donald Crews Liz & Ronald Keeshan Ethan Owens Debra Wolf Sharon Davidoff Larry Kingsbury Sungsu Park Marvin Wolf Paul Davis Thomas & Laura Kleespies Janet & William Pauli Ming-Jen Yang Michael De Haan Stephen Klein Clayton Paulson Lixin Zeng Sarah Doherty B. Matthew Knapp Jorge Peraza Xiaoli Zhu & Juan Liang Dale Durran & Janice Tervonen Kevin & Sheri Kodama Michael & Susan Peskura Xun Zhu & Wei Liu Imke Durre Joost Businger & Marianne Leonhard Pfister Charles & Mary Elderkin Kooiman Joel Pothering Corporate, Foundation, Chuck Erickson Karen Kowalewsky Thomas & Leslie Redd Organization Donors Charles Erwin Frank Krentz Vernon & Laurel Redecker Allen Institute for Brain Science William & Barbara Evans Terence Kubar Robert & Britt Reeves AT&T Foundation Brad Ferrier & Linda Carter- Walter Kuciej John Rehr Blink Interactive, Inc. Ferrier Lois & Richard Lamb Lee & Katherine Reinleitner The Boeing Company Gary Fisher Robert & Bonnie Landen Jeffrey & Susan Renner ConocoPhillips Company Jennifer & Peter Francis Teresa & Tim Lawson Monte Robinson Google Inc. Thomas & June Frey Margaret Le Mone & Peter Steven Robinson Microsoft Corporation Eric & Amy Friedland Gilman Ruben Rodriguez Northwest Rain Solutions Carl Gaddis John Leathers Steven Rolfe Philips Consumer Lifestyle Ann & Mark Gaponoff Jonell & Christopher Lee Bernard & Nora Rossiter Sunrise Coffee Company, Ltd. Marcus Gillette Andrew LeGear Steven & Barbara Rutledge Brock & Jamie Gilman Martha Lentz & Jonathan Noll Doug Sandilands

6 Atmospheric Circulation Alumni News tion to Meteorology and NW Weather class at the bicycle ride across Iowa (RAGBRAI) in “face melt- Anacortes Sr. College in the Spring of 2012. Prof. ing heat” [Des Moines Register, 07/24/2012]. We Ed Boselly (’64, B.S.) was elected the Distin- Cliff Mass’ book, The Weather of the Pacific North- enjoy the year-round sunshine here in Malibu, but guished Alumnus for 2012 from the Department west, was one of the key references used for the are considering a move back to the Pacific NW next of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Utah, course. The class was intended to give students a year if my policy work does not take me instead to where he received his M.S. Degree in 1968. fundamental grasp of the physics that drive weather Washington D.C. or elsewhere.” Ioana Dima-West (’05, Ph.D.) sent in the fol- in a non-mathematical way. Emphasis was placed on Judith Gray (’84, M.S.) has retired from the lowing news. Career: I’m still at the same company, some of the more unusual characteristics of our NW National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration AIR Worldwide, working as a Senior Research Sci- weather. Although Wayne’s 32-year professional ca- (NOAA) after 33 years of service. Judy started with entist, but now more focused on climate and climate reer was in telecommunications, he has maintained NOAA as an officer in the NOAA Corps in 1978, change projects as well as real-time evaluations of a keen interest in the sciences and education over the deploying moorings in the equatorial Pacific that hurricane risk in the Atlantic Basin. Personal: I’ve years. He is an active member of the community and eventually became the TAO array. She joined UW/ had my second baby last year, on August 11. His also tutors mathematics at the local high school. Atmospheric Sciences when she became a civilian name is Nicholas, he is super-energetic and almost D. Steven Fox (’92, M.S.) completed his Atmo- NOAA employee at the Pacific Marine Environ- walking. He and his 3-year-old brother, Paul, are spheric Sciences degree under Norbert Untersteiner. mental Laboratory, studying winds along Alaska’s playing together very nice...most of the time. Big He has earned three other academic degrees (M.D., mountainous coastlines and air-sea interaction. Her change coming up: We are moving to London in M.Sc. in Tropical Medicine & Public Health, and career took her through two tours with NOAA’s October. I’ve asked for a transfer to our London M.Phil. in Policy Analysis), and is nearing com- HQ for Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) office and I will continue to work on similar proj- pletion on a fourth (Ph.D. in Policy Analysis at and a long tenure as Deputy Director of the Atlan- ects there but with more focus on the European RAND). He wrote, “Most of my professional time tic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory market. The best part is that we will be just 3 hours is devoted to health policy, both specific analysis in Miami (with former UW professor, Dr. Kristina away from my family in Bucharest. topics, such as: understanding the effects of coor- Katsaros). In 2010 and 2011, she was the Acting Curtis James (’04, Ph.D., Associate Professor dination between healthcare providers, and improv- Deputy Assistant Administrator of OAR. For her of Meteorology, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Uni- ing healthcare delivery in the developing world, as service, Judy was awarded a Distinguished Career versity). In May, he had a mountain biking accident well as broader solutions, such as developing bet- Award in 2011. She plans to stay involved with and shattered his left elbow. In June, he conducted a ter decision analysis tools for policy makers. Cli- NOAA by assisting with the development of leader- 3-week study abroad course on mountain meteorol- mate change (and satellite remote sensing) come ship training opportunities. Her new e-mail address ogy in the Swiss Alps with 13 of his students. up a lot, so I am definitely using my UW educa- is [email protected]. Lucas Harris (’10, Ph.D.) took a Physical Sci- tion. My wife, Susan (also a physician) and I have Louise Leahy (’12, Ph.D.) is now working at entist position in January 2012 at the Geophysical been married for almost 16 years, and have three 3TIER. Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, NJ, after rambunctious boys. I continue to travel and enjoy Bill Lipscomb (’98, Ph.D.) received the 2012 a postdoc at Princeton University. outdoor pursuits—the five of us just returned last Distinguished Achievement Award for contribu- Wayne Huseby (’69, B.S.) taught an Introduc- week (July) from participating in a 10,000+ person (Alumni News—Continued on page 8) Giving to the Department of Atmospheric Sciences Please consider supporting the activities of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences. Your gift strengthens the core of the UW through recruitment and retention of world-class students and faculty. Your support of undergraduate and graduate students helps to cre- ate the next generation of scientific leaders. Help us to ensure that the department continues to be a leader in weather, climate andquality. Yes, I want to support the Department of Atmospheric Sciences! I have enclosed $______to support Friends of Atmospheric Sciences Fund Atmospheric Sciences Graduate Education Fund Richard and Joan Reed Atmospheric Sciences Endowed Undergraduate Scholarship Fund James Holton Endowed Graudate Support Fund Visa Mastercard American Express Card Number ______Expiration Date (mm/yyyy) ______Signature______Name (First, Last) ______Address______City, State, Zip ______Home Phone No.______Work Phone No. ______This is a matching gift (Enclose matching form) This is a joint gift Your gift is tax-deductible as specified in IRS regulations. Pursuant to RCW 19.09, the University of Washington is registered as a charitable organization with the Secretary of State, state of Washington. To make your gift by phone, please call 1-877-UW-GIFTS (1-877-894-4387). Please send your check, payable to the “University of Washington” to: Debra Wolf, Assistant to the Chair, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Box 351640, Seattle, Washington 98195-1640 To make your gift online, log onto www.atmos.washington.edu/about/support.shtml or www.washington.edu/giving/make-a-gift. Appeal Code: ASN12 7 Department of Atmospheric Sciences

Alumni News, cont. from page 7 Jeffrey Renner (’88, B.S.) was awarded an and WJLA in Washington, DC…after 40 years he fi- tions to the Community Earth System Model. Emmy from Pacific Northwest Academy of Tele- nally found the light switch in the studio and switch Justin Minder (’10, Ph.D.) started a tenure vision Arts and Sciences for best Weather Anchor it off so he could begin a passion to use his theo- track position in Fall 2012 as an Assistant Professor in the region. He wrote, “It’s the second time I’ve retical TV media model of science communication in SUNY Albany’s Department of Atmospheric and been fortunate enough to win this ward, and my based on cognitive multi-media leaning principles Environmental Sciences. fourth Emmy overall (the other two were for in- on the subject the climate change. He is working Ralph C. Monis (’90, B.S.) was an undergrad formational special documentary and news special on a Ph.D. at the Center for Climate Change Com- student from 1987–1990. He worked under Prof. documentary).” munication at George Mason University in helping Kristina Katsaros from 1990–1995. He helped with James Renwick (’95, Ph.D.) sent in the follow- the nation’s individual local TV forecasters become research on the SOFIA research cruise onboard ing news. “I was a PhD student at UW during 1991- climate science educators for their viewers. Joe is the RV Le Suroit from the IFREMER fleet and on 1995, studying with Prof. Mike Wallace. I returned also working with Adnet/NASA, Goddard, in as- the Floating Laboratory Instrumentation Platform to NZ after finishing my degree, and I worked for sisting with NASA climate science outreach to the (FLIP) based at the Scripps Institute. He worked NIWA (the NZ National Institute of Water and At- TV forecasters. along with the following people: Serhad Atakturk, mospheric Research) for 17 years. In June 2012 I Reid Wolcott (’10, M.S.) was offered and ac- Janice DeCosmo, Neal Johnson, Fred Weller and took up a faculty position at Victoria University of cepted a promotion to General Forecaster with the Steve Domonkos. He is now an IT Engineer for Puget Wellington, to teach and do research in large-scale National Weather Service office in Las Vegas, NV. Sound Energy, married and living in Redmond. climate dynamics and variability. I am very excited He began working there at the end of July 2012. H. Stuart Muench (’64, Ph.D.) passed away about the opportunities my new position creates. Over the past year he has continued to work on nu- on May 26, 2012, in Brunswick, ME. He obtained There is very little teaching of climate dynamics merous projects with the National Weather Service his doctorate in Meteorology while serving as an in NZ universities and few local students learning office in Riverton, WY. He has narrowed his focus instructor at the UW while taking a leave of ab- about the area. I hope to change that, and to build up to providing and improving NWS Decision Sup- sence from his work for the Air Force Cambridge a research group at VUW with expertise in South- port Services and streamlining office operations. In Research Laboratory. After leaving the Air Force ern Hemisphere circulation and large-sale dynam- late 2011, he received a local Isaac Cline Award for research in 1994, he went to work as a technical edi- ics. I look forward to sharing with my own students Program Management and Administrative Services tor for the AMS and retired in 2010. the excitement I felt at UW, discovering some of and Support. His photography galleries continue to Grant Petty (’90, Ph.D.), Professor of Atmo- the mysteries and wonderful characteristics of the grow at www.reidwolcott.com! spheric Science, has been elected to a 3-year term atmosphere we all share.” Ming-Jen Yang (’95, Ph.D.) was promoted to on the University Committee at the University of Joe Witte (’65, B.S.; M.S’68, M.S., based on Full Professor at the National Central University, Wisconsin-Madison. In other news, he and fellow research on ice island T-3) is on his third career… Taiwan, effective on 1 August 2012. He also serves UW alum Prof. Jon Martin (’92, Ph.D.) recently started out in glaciology with the USGS (South as one of the Associate Editors for the AMS Jour- observed the 10-year mark of playing for weddings Cascade Glacier/Blue Glacier) and then tried nal of Weather and Forecasting, starting 1 January and festivals in Wisconsin and surrounding states TV weather forecasting, starting at KING TV in 2012. with their rock band, the Sundogs. 1971…ending up with NBC network in New York

Contact Us Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Box 351640 Seattle, Washington 98195-1640 Phone (206) 543-4250 Fax (206) 543-0308 http://www.atmos.washington.edu

Gregory J. Hakim, Chair Debra Wolf, Editor

Atmospheric Circulation is published annually for alumni, friends, and members of the University of Washington Department of Atmospheric Sciences. This is the twelfth issue.

Please send alumni news, comments, questions, corrections and address updates to [email protected] or call (206) 543-4250.

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