Housing Needs Analysis – Accommodation with Care May 2010 Housing Needs Analysis – Accommodation with Care Executive Summary Population information for existing and future numbers of older people requiring accommodation with care, especially figures for people living with dementia, are growing and are projected to continue to grow. Currently in North Yorkshire, older people have little choice for their accommodation with care, relying on local authority elderly people’s homes or private sector accommodation. There is some extra care housing in North Yorkshire but nowhere near enough to meet demand. A Housing Needs Assessment – Accommodation with Care was conducted to specifically identify how much extra care housing would be required to meet existing and projected need to 2020. It resulted in a need for a further 30 schemes in all districts and boroughs across the county. Extra care schemes are usually developed using a financial model that relies on Government and Local Authority grant. Such grant is becoming harder to obtain and the extra care provider sector is seeking new ways to continue to develop extra care housing. It is understood that packaging up a number of extra care housing schemes achieves economies of scale and is attractive enough to entice investors. The County Council is currently exploring ways to continue to enable the delivery of extra care housing using these new funding models. To ensure its reliability and to help to encourage investment, the Housing Needs Analysis – Accommodation with Care has been reviewed, tested and responded to by an independent consultant and their findings are included in this publication. We hope you will find this publication useful. Contact details are included if you require further information. 2 Housing Needs Analysis – Accommodation with Care Background Where we are now The County Council currently operates 11 Elderly Person’s Homes (EPHs) and 3 Resource Centres. By March 2011, two of the EPHs will have been replaced. In the JSNA (Joint Strategic Needs Assessment) published in 2008 and in ‘Our Future Lives’ it states that ‘the majority of the Council’s EPHs will be replaced by around 800 units of extra care housing by 2011’. This has not yet been achieved, in part due to the reasons mentioned below. In North Yorkshire the current service configuration, processes and practice rely too heavily on the use of residential care for vulnerable adults, in particular older people. We believe we have not done enough to help vulnerable adults maximise their potential for independence through the accommodation they live in. Too often people from these groups have had little choice about the type, location or tenure of the accommodation in which they live, whether they own their own home or rent. We currently have 12 purpose-built extra care housing schemes - and one previously designated sheltered scheme now offering an extra care service - in operation across the county with a further 3 in development with anticipated completion date by March 2011. The route we have taken to date to develop extra care has been very much around the opportunistic route in that we have seized opportunities where land has become available linked to an EPH and developed extra care as a direct replacement for the EPH. The schemes have been developed with a variety of Registered Social Landlord partners on a one-off, traditional funding model. It is now recognised that the provision of extra care housing must be in response to local demand and that the traditional funding and development methods are no longer viable. Demographics prove that the population of North Yorkshire is growing, especially the numbers of older people and those with dementia or likely to develop dementia. There is also high demand for accommodation and support services for vulnerable adults across a range of needs and ages. People’s aspirations are for quality accommodation of their own choice preferably being enabled to remain in their own home (which includes extra care housing), to exercise choice and control over their care and/or support needs and to maintain or increase their quality of life. The National Care Service White Paper March 2010 says:- ‘In the context of an ageing society it is vital that high quality local housing options are available that meet people’s needs and aspirations, while supporting them to live independently and well…We know that early intervention through housing support plays a key role in preventing health and care needs escalating’. Extra care housing provides a high-quality solution enabling people to live in their own home with security of tenure, control over their finances including utilising the Personalisation Agenda to manage their own care and/or support needs. It is also a community facility enabling local people to come into the scheme to access services and facilities. This allows people to maintain existing social structures but also to establish new relationships and friendships. 3 Housing Needs Analysis – Accommodation with Care It is accepted that the next generation of older people has a greater expectation of housing options and this will include maintaining equity and ownership. Extra care housing is regarded as a preferred and successful alternative to residential care. The Housing our Ageing Population: Panel for Innovation Report says:- ‘The time has come for a new national effort to build the homes and create the environments that will meet our needs as we all grow older’. Many older people live in isolation and experience loneliness and anxiety which can be relieved by moving into extra care housing or similar models of communal living. Under-occupation of family-sized home in the public and private sector is an issue for housing demand but it must be recognised that people will only be encouraged to plan for their future supported housing needs and release their under-occupied accommodation if we provide an alternative that has high standards of design, is cost-effective and is somewhere that people will aspire to live. Due to the economic downturn and capital and revenue funding being harder to obtain, it is vital that North Yorkshire works with partners and a variety of stakeholders to achieve economies of scale by having a programme of delivery across the county. A needs-mapping exercise has been carried out and shows that an additional 30 extra care schemes with a range of tenure options are required by April 2020. This document provides key headline data and more analysis of demand relating to the specific required locations will be conducted in the future. The areas of need are identified in the following districts:- Craven x 4 Hambleton x 5 Harrogate x 6 Richmondshire x 3 Ryedale x 4 Scarborough x 3 Selby x 5 North Yorkshire North Yorkshire is England’s largest county. It is predominantly a rural county with Harrogate and Scarborough being the only towns in excess of 20,000 in population. The county includes the North York Moors and the Yorkshire Dales National Parks and tourism substantially increases the summer population. The population is 579,900 (2004 estimate) across over 3100 square miles with two major urban centres at Harrogate and Scarborough with most people living in one of the 28 market towns, small villages or hamlets. The county is relatively affluent compared to the rest of England, with all constituent districts, except Scarborough, being above average. Within this there is an overall pattern of below average unemployment, relative prosperity but with significant pockets of deprivation in some of the urban and rural areas. 4 Housing Needs Analysis – Accommodation with Care Key Facts and Statistics Older people and the Ageing Population North Yorkshire has an ageing population with numbers of older people (65 plus and 85 plus) above the national average. The county has a significantly below average number of adults of working age compared to the national average and comparator authorities and these two trends are set to accelerate over the coming years. Population Profile: North Yorkshire Figures rounded up Bracketed figure = % of County Pop Age Profile 2001 2020 % change 2001 - 2020 0 – 19 136, 600 (24%) 127,800 (21%) - 6.4% 20 – 49 216,100 (38%) 197,900 (32%) -8.4% 50 – 64 113,600 (20%) 139,300 (22%) +22.6% 65 – 84 89,800 (16%) 132,800 (21%) +47.9% 85+ 13,600 (2%) 22,500 (4%) +65.4% Total Population 569,700 620,300 +8.9% Using 2001 census information it was estimated that in North Yorkshire by 2020:- • There will be 50% more people aged 65+, representing 25% of the total population • There will be 65% more people aged 85+, representing 4% of the total population • Around 1 in 4 people aged over 80 years will have a significant degree of dementia • Every year up to 2020 there will be 466 people new to the 85+ age group (group of people most likely to require support) and approximately 116 will have dementia or memory-related problems Over this time period, just as the older population is increasing, the 20-40 year old group (from which many carers and people working in the caring professions are drawn) is diminishing. This population will reduce by 10,000, a drop of 7.3% for this age range over this time period. This may also indicate that many carers are not living within the county and therefore have additional demands placed on them trying to provide care from a distance. Other Vulnerable Adults Around 1,344 people with a learning disability will receive social care services and national statistics show that there will be many more people with mild to moderate learning disabilities that do not access social care services. 5 Housing Needs Analysis – Accommodation with Care By 2020 it is estimated that:- • There will be around 7% more people with mild learning disabilities • There will be around 7% more people with severe learning disabilities There will also be a potential increase in people from the following groups:- • Physical disability (under 65) • Sensory impairment • People with long-term conditions It is difficult to predict changes in demographics for these groups, however, national evidence clearly suggests an increase in the number of children with complex conditions surviving into adulthood.