Housing Needs Analysis – Accommodation with Care May 2010
Housing Needs Analysis – Accommodation with Care
Executive Summary
Population information for existing and future numbers of older people requiring accommodation with care, especially figures for people living with dementia, are growing and are projected to continue to grow.
Currently in North Yorkshire, older people have little choice for their accommodation with care, relying on local authority elderly people’s homes or private sector accommodation. There is some extra care housing in North Yorkshire but nowhere near enough to meet demand.
A Housing Needs Assessment – Accommodation with Care was conducted to specifically identify how much extra care housing would be required to meet existing and projected need to 2020. It resulted in a need for a further 30 schemes in all districts and boroughs across the county.
Extra care schemes are usually developed using a financial model that relies on Government and Local Authority grant. Such grant is becoming harder to obtain and the extra care provider sector is seeking new ways to continue to develop extra care housing. It is understood that packaging up a number of extra care housing schemes achieves economies of scale and is attractive enough to entice investors. The County Council is currently exploring ways to continue to enable the delivery of extra care housing using these new funding models.
To ensure its reliability and to help to encourage investment, the Housing Needs Analysis – Accommodation with Care has been reviewed, tested and responded to by an independent consultant and their findings are included in this publication.
We hope you will find this publication useful. Contact details are included if you require further information.
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Background
Where we are now
The County Council currently operates 11 Elderly Person’s Homes (EPHs) and 3 Resource Centres. By March 2011, two of the EPHs will have been replaced. In the JSNA (Joint Strategic Needs Assessment) published in 2008 and in ‘Our Future Lives’ it states that ‘the majority of the Council’s EPHs will be replaced by around 800 units of extra care housing by 2011’. This has not yet been achieved, in part due to the reasons mentioned below.
In North Yorkshire the current service configuration, processes and practice rely too heavily on the use of residential care for vulnerable adults, in particular older people. We believe we have not done enough to help vulnerable adults maximise their potential for independence through the accommodation they live in. Too often people from these groups have had little choice about the type, location or tenure of the accommodation in which they live, whether they own their own home or rent.
We currently have 12 purpose-built extra care housing schemes - and one previously designated sheltered scheme now offering an extra care service - in operation across the county with a further 3 in development with anticipated completion date by March 2011.
The route we have taken to date to develop extra care has been very much around the opportunistic route in that we have seized opportunities where land has become available linked to an EPH and developed extra care as a direct replacement for the EPH. The schemes have been developed with a variety of Registered Social Landlord partners on a one-off, traditional funding model. It is now recognised that the provision of extra care housing must be in response to local demand and that the traditional funding and development methods are no longer viable.
Demographics prove that the population of North Yorkshire is growing, especially the numbers of older people and those with dementia or likely to develop dementia. There is also high demand for accommodation and support services for vulnerable adults across a range of needs and ages.
People’s aspirations are for quality accommodation of their own choice preferably being enabled to remain in their own home (which includes extra care housing), to exercise choice and control over their care and/or support needs and to maintain or increase their quality of life.
The National Care Service White Paper March 2010 says:-
‘In the context of an ageing society it is vital that high quality local housing options are available that meet people’s needs and aspirations, while supporting them to live independently and well…We know that early intervention through housing support plays a key role in preventing health and care needs escalating’.
Extra care housing provides a high-quality solution enabling people to live in their own home with security of tenure, control over their finances including utilising the Personalisation Agenda to manage their own care and/or support needs. It is also a community facility enabling local people to come into the scheme to access services and facilities. This allows people to maintain existing social structures but also to establish new relationships and friendships.
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It is accepted that the next generation of older people has a greater expectation of housing options and this will include maintaining equity and ownership. Extra care housing is regarded as a preferred and successful alternative to residential care.
The Housing our Ageing Population: Panel for Innovation Report says:-
‘The time has come for a new national effort to build the homes and create the environments that will meet our needs as we all grow older’.
Many older people live in isolation and experience loneliness and anxiety which can be relieved by moving into extra care housing or similar models of communal living.
Under-occupation of family-sized home in the public and private sector is an issue for housing demand but it must be recognised that people will only be encouraged to plan for their future supported housing needs and release their under-occupied accommodation if we provide an alternative that has high standards of design, is cost-effective and is somewhere that people will aspire to live.
Due to the economic downturn and capital and revenue funding being harder to obtain, it is vital that North Yorkshire works with partners and a variety of stakeholders to achieve economies of scale by having a programme of delivery across the county.
A needs-mapping exercise has been carried out and shows that an additional 30 extra care schemes with a range of tenure options are required by April 2020. This document provides key headline data and more analysis of demand relating to the specific required locations will be conducted in the future. The areas of need are identified in the following districts:-
Craven x 4 Hambleton x 5 Harrogate x 6 Richmondshire x 3 Ryedale x 4 Scarborough x 3 Selby x 5
North Yorkshire
North Yorkshire is England’s largest county. It is predominantly a rural county with Harrogate and Scarborough being the only towns in excess of 20,000 in population. The county includes the North York Moors and the Yorkshire Dales National Parks and tourism substantially increases the summer population.
The population is 579,900 (2004 estimate) across over 3100 square miles with two major urban centres at Harrogate and Scarborough with most people living in one of the 28 market towns, small villages or hamlets.
The county is relatively affluent compared to the rest of England, with all constituent districts, except Scarborough, being above average. Within this there is an overall pattern of below average unemployment, relative prosperity but with significant pockets of deprivation in some of the urban and rural areas.
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Key Facts and Statistics
Older people and the Ageing Population North Yorkshire has an ageing population with numbers of older people (65 plus and 85 plus) above the national average. The county has a significantly below average number of adults of working age compared to the national average and comparator authorities and these two trends are set to accelerate over the coming years.
Population Profile: North Yorkshire Figures rounded up Bracketed figure = % of County Pop Age Profile 2001 2020 % change 2001 - 2020 0 – 19 136, 600 (24%) 127,800 (21%) - 6.4%
20 – 49 216,100 (38%) 197,900 (32%) -8.4%
50 – 64 113,600 (20%) 139,300 (22%) +22.6%
65 – 84 89,800 (16%) 132,800 (21%) +47.9%
85+ 13,600 (2%) 22,500 (4%) +65.4%
Total Population 569,700 620,300 +8.9%
Using 2001 census information it was estimated that in North Yorkshire by 2020:-
• There will be 50% more people aged 65+, representing 25% of the total population
• There will be 65% more people aged 85+, representing 4% of the total population
• Around 1 in 4 people aged over 80 years will have a significant degree of dementia
• Every year up to 2020 there will be 466 people new to the 85+ age group (group of people most likely to require support) and approximately 116 will have dementia or memory-related problems
Over this time period, just as the older population is increasing, the 20-40 year old group (from which many carers and people working in the caring professions are drawn) is diminishing. This population will reduce by 10,000, a drop of 7.3% for this age range over this time period. This may also indicate that many carers are not living within the county and therefore have additional demands placed on them trying to provide care from a distance.
Other Vulnerable Adults Around 1,344 people with a learning disability will receive social care services and national statistics show that there will be many more people with mild to moderate learning disabilities that do not access social care services.
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By 2020 it is estimated that:-
• There will be around 7% more people with mild learning disabilities • There will be around 7% more people with severe learning disabilities
There will also be a potential increase in people from the following groups:-
• Physical disability (under 65) • Sensory impairment • People with long-term conditions
It is difficult to predict changes in demographics for these groups, however, national evidence clearly suggests an increase in the number of children with complex conditions surviving into adulthood.
Appendix 1 provides a summary of the population of North Yorkshire based on mid -year estimates for 2010 and projections to 2020.
District/Borough Level Information Appendix 2 provides a summary of key population information (from 2001 Census) for each district/borough within North Yorkshire.
Self-Funders In December 2009, the County Council conducted a survey of all residential and nursing homes across the county to try to establish the numbers of people who pay for their care and support needs themselves.
250 homes were invited to take part in the survey; 64 establishments returned completed questionnaires, a further 27 had no self-funders and 159 did not reply.
Using the figures from the returned questionnaires to do a crude extrapolation of how many self-funders there are in the county, gives a figure of 2720 self-funders. This assumes that the 159 non-returning establishments have a similar average number of residents as the 64 establishments who returned questionnaires and that there is consistency in the percentages of self-funders. These results have made necessary assumptions but do give a picture of the likely number of self-funders already living in accommodation with care across the county.
Black Minority Ethnic Population The number of people from Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) population groups is low in North Yorkshire and limited to a relatively small number of wards (eg Scotton in Richmondshire and Skipton West). The county has a higher proportion of people from white ethnic groups than England as a whole, although this is reducing.
Harrogate has the largest mixed ethnic population and, for the county overall, the size of the BME population is increasing in line with the national trend.
Comparing to the national average, the proportion of North Yorkshire’s population who are of Asian and Asian British ethnicity is very small. The figures for Craven and Richmondshire are the highest across the county, a reflection of the ethnic make-up of the residents of Catterick Garrison.
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Similarly, the proportion of North Yorkshire’s population from Chinese or other ethnic groups is very small when compared to the national average. Craven, Harrogate and Scarborough have the highest figures. In line with the trend for England, the local trend is increasing.
Transformation of Service Provision
Both the aspirations of people and the imperatives of reducing public sector expenditure mean that we want to reduce the numbers of people in residential and nursing home provision and to do this policies have to be put in place to provide alternatives. A key element of this will be the provision of extra care housing as well as a range of services to support people in their own homes including the use of assistive technology, prevention and early intervention services. Most people will be living in their own homes and therefore other housing policies relating to accessibility and suitability of housing need to be built into strategic housing planning.
We are working on developing models which can indicate the level of extra care housing to be planned at a local level and relative priorities.
To give an example of how the transformation of services may affect future demand the table below uses information from POPPI* and PANSI* along with other information we already know to provide a forecast of people requiring suitable accommodation by 2015.
People requiring suitable accommodation Forecast 2015 Client Age Group group Craven Hambleton Harrogate Richmondshire Ryedale Scarborough Selby People with a Physical Disability 18-24 7 6 21 6 3 7 6 25-34 9 8 32 7 4 8 10 35-44 16 14 51 9 7 13 17 45-44 38 33 105 19 17 32 35 55-64 57 51 142 27 27 52 47 PD Total 127 112 351 68 58 112 115 People with a Learning Disability 18-24 8 5 25 5 7 16 2 25-34 9 6 33 5 8 17 3 35-44 12 8 40 5 11 21 4 45-54 15 9 42 5 13 25 4 55-64 13 8 32 4 11 23 3 LD Total 57 36 172 24 50 102 16 Older People 65-74 39 27 78 27 16 58 19 75-84 103 115 254 67 72 197 78 85+ 236 253 610 142 185 430 163 OP Total 378 395 942 236 273 685 260 Grand Total 562 543 1465 328 381 899 391
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Data Sources
POPPI (Projecting Older People Population Information) and PANSI (Projecting Adult Needs & Service Information) are systems developed by the Institute of Public Care to help explore the possible impact that demography and certain conditions might have on the adult population.
Older People: Using POPPI prevalence information the figures in the table provide an estimate of the number of people that would be requiring suitable accommodation if the number in a residential or nursing care service were reduced by 50%
PD: Using PANSI prevalence information for people with a severe or moderate physical disability and the information known about people with a physical disability the figures estimate the number of people with a physical disability that would be requiring suitable accommodation if the number in a residential or nursing care service were reduced by 50%
LD: Using PANSI prevalence information for people with a severe or moderate learning disability and information already being collected about the number of people with a learning disability that are in suitable accommodation, the figures in the table provide an indication of the number of people with a learning disability that would be in unsuitable accommodation
Delivering the Solutions
The Extra Care Team, in partnership with other directorates, has been working on a strategic approach to identifying the potential across the county for extra care housing but possibly incorporating other facilities for example a police station, a library or Surestart Centre.
This strategic view has been put together with needs information form a variety of sources:-
• Poppi and Pansi (as detailed above) • District and Borough Council Strategic Needs Assessments 2009 • North Yorkshire Joint Strategic Needs Assessment 2008 • Strategic Commissioning for Independence, Wellbeing & Choice 2007-2022 • Our Future Lives • Valuing People Now • North Yorkshire Housing Strategy 2009 (draft) • NYCC Strategic Commissioning Managers (local knowledge of their patch)
The exercise has identified a need for an additional 30 extra care schemes that will meet a range of needs across a range of ages. As more detailed, local information is identified, an Extra Care Housing Needs Map will be produced.
The Vision
North Yorkshire’s Ethos for Extra Care Housing “Extra care housing should provide safe and secure self-contained accommodation for vulnerable adults who require varying levels of care and support to enable them to live independently in a home environment.”
It should:-
• Contribute to the initial reduction of the levels of care and/or support previously received by the resident before entering the scheme • Support the ongoing care and support needs of its residents and reduce the likelihood of admission to long-term care • Contribute to the prevention of hospital admission, re-admission and enable early discharge
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• Contribute to supporting people to live independently, stay healthy and recover more quickly from illness or accident • Enable people to be supported to remain in their home and be supported to die at home if that is their wish • Enable people with dementia to live independent, active and healthy lives without the need to move to more specialist accommodation • Promote independence, prevention and wellbeing • Improve outcomes for residents and their carers • Enable two-way community interaction to provide activities, lifelong learning and social interaction • Give people choice and control over their care and support needs via the Personalisation Agenda • Give people control over their personal finance arrangements including having access to welfare benefits • Provide housing, care and support solutions to vulnerable adults of all ages and across all needs • Be mixed tenure and tenure blind • Involve and consult with people of all ages and need, who are likely to live in or use the facilities and services provided at the scheme • Include a specialism where identified as a need such as a Memory Clinic or Learning Disability Day Service
Other Stakeholders In order to achieve economies of scale in both capital construction costs and revenue running costs and to ensure that each scheme brings the maximum benefit to the community in which it sits, partnerships will be encouraged to provide a range of shared facilities and services. An extra care scheme should aim to be the heart of the community, encouraging people to come in to use the facilities and access services but also to take part in social activities and build relationships and friendships with the residents that live at the scheme. People who live in the scheme should be encouraged and enabled to remain a community member; maintaining their existing relationships and access to their usual activities and behaviours within that community.
It can be quite daunting for someone who lives near the scheme to just walk up to the front door and enter. If there is a facility in the scheme that they wish to visit such as a community library, they then have a reason to walk in and will feel more comfortable staying for a coffee, using the hair salon, talking to the Scheme Manager and meeting residents. Also, where the community comes into the scheme to use its facilities on a regular basis, residents’ opportunities for social interaction are hugely enhanced.
In North Yorkshire we would like extra care schemes to consider the possibility of working with the following stakeholders:-
• Libraries • Health • Police • Children’s Services • Retail • Leisure
This list is not exhaustive and all potential partnerships will be considered.
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With all stakeholders compromising on shared space and facilities, each service is truly integrated and capital savings can be made. As extra care schemes are staffed 24 hrs a day, 365 days of the year, partners can pay for a concierge service from the housing provider. Revenue costs can be shared.
Adult & Community Services is in dialogue with the independent social care sector, clearly setting out our commitment to extra care housing and we’ve asked providers to tell us how they’ll change their business models in response.
We also have support for our vision for extra care housing from older people’s groups across the county.
Design North Yorkshire County Council has worked with seven different providers for the thirteen extra care schemes currently in operation. Each provider has their own design specification and ideas of best practice in terms of the physical design of the building – although where grant funded, design standards have been used.
The Extra Care Team has undertaken substantial research into effective and innovative design and has produced a Design & Ethos Guide that providers can use. This is not intended to be a template as that may result in all schemes looking the same but rather as a minimum standard of design and build specification that North Yorkshire expects its partners to provide.
The Design & Ethos Guide is available on our web page.
Contact Details
Name Direct Dial Mobile No Juliette Daniel Strategic Development Manager – Accommodation with 01609 798662 07969 904722 Care [email protected]
Jackie Bradfield Extra Care Project Manager 01609 533062 07966 067417 [email protected]
Mike Bedford Extra Care Project Officer 01609 536896 07966 327543 [email protected]
Beckie Dukes Extra Care Project Officer 01609 535173 07968 693696 [email protected]
Marion Dennis Extra Care Project Support Officer 01609 532600 07891 555062 [email protected]
The Team is located in Room 206, North Block, Adult and Community Services, County Hall, Northallerton DL7 8DD
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Appendix 1
This appendix provides a summary of some key population information and projections for North Yorkshire (based on mid-year estimates for 2010)
Age of population:
People 65+ People 85+
Population Population 2010-20 Population Population 2010-20 estimate estimate % estimate estimate % 2010 2020 increase 2010 2020 increase Craven 12400 16000 29% Craven 1900 2600 37% Hambleton 18700 24900 33% Hambleton 2300 3500 52% Harrogate 30800 39800 29% Harrogate 4500 6400 42% Richmondshire 9000 12200 36% Richmondshire 1200 1700 42% Ryedale 12200 15700 29% Ryedale 1700 2400 41% Scarborough 25300 32000 26% Scarborough 3700 4900 32% Selby 13700 18500 35% Selby 1800 2600 44% Total North Total North Yorkshire 122100 159100 30% Yorkshire 17100 24100 41%
People with dementia aged 65+
Dementia 65+ Population Population estimate estimate 2010 2020 2010-20 % increase Craven 916 1197 31% Hambleton 1261 1781 41% Harrogate 2264 3023 34% Richmondshire 617 860 39% Ryedale 869 1133 30% Scarborough 1845 2349 27% Selby 930 1315 41% Total North Yorkshire 8702 11658 34%
People with moderate or severe learning disability:
Moderate or severe learning Moderate or severe learning disability aged 18-64 disability aged 65+ Population Population 2010-20 Population Population 2010-20 estimate estimate % estimate estimate % 2010 2020 increase 2010 2020 increase Craven 187 197 5% Craven 34 44 29% Hambleton 288 287 0% Hambleton 53 69 30% Harrogate 554 597 8% Harrogate 86 109 27% Richmondshire 187 204 9% Richmondshire 25 34 36% Ryedale 176 184 5% Ryedale 34 43 26% Scarborough 359 363 1% Scarborough 70 88 26% Selby 283 298 5% Selby 39 52 33% Total North Total North Yorkshire 2034 2130 5% Yorkshire 341 439 29%
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This appendix provides some key population data (from 2001 Census) for each district/borough within North Yorkshire
Craven
Age & Long Term Limiting Illness by ward
With a Limiting Long- All Term Ward People 65+ % 65+ 85+ % 85+ Illness % LLTI Aire Valley with Lothersdale 3429 602 17.6% 71 2.1% 526 15.3% Barden Fell 1641 287 17.5% 50 3.0% 237 14.4% Bentham 3490 694 19.9% 101 2.9% 600 17.2% Cowling 2078 270 13.0% 41 2.0% 295 14.2% Embsay-with-Eastby 1757 429 24.4% 53 3.0% 290 16.5% Gargrave and Malhamdale 2883 771 26.7% 136 4.7% 619 21.5% Glusburn 3803 821 21.6% 154 4.0% 709 18.6% Grassington 1583 465 29.4% 70 4.4% 292 18.4% Hellifield and Long Preston 1760 341 19.4% 43 2.4% 290 16.5% Ingleton and Clapham 3656 752 20.6% 100 2.7% 660 18.1% Penyghent 1830 391 21.4% 34 1.9% 333 18.2% Settle and Ribblebanks 3288 842 25.6% 148 4.5% 670 20.4% Skipton East 3473 734 21.1% 89 2.6% 582 16.8% Skipton North 3289 683 20.8% 71 2.2% 544 16.5% Skipton South 3795 677 17.8% 90 2.4% 743 19.6% Skipton West 3672 668 18.2% 82 2.2% 657 17.9% Sutton-in-Craven 3376 591 17.5% 85 2.5% 563 16.7% Upper Wharfedale 1813 462 25.5% 58 3.2% 335 18.5% West Craven 1721 376 21.8% 41 2.4% 296 17.2%
Craven District Total 52337 10856 20.7% 1517 2.9% 9241 17.7%
North Yorkshire Total 553008 102581 18.5% 13545 2.4% 97316 17.6%
Pensionable age tenure type by ward
Pensionable Rented Other age from social Private rented or Ward households Owned council rented Living rent free Aire Valley with Lothersdale 410 337 42 0 31 Barden Fell 172 123 0 0 49 Bentham 496 405 37 17 37 Cowling 188 151 18 6 13 Embsay-with-Eastby 314 246 38 3 27 Gargrave and Malhamdale 464 351 62 4 47 Glusburn 572 396 79 57 40 Grassington 366 271 43 19 33 Hellifield and Long Preston 250 178 34 8 30 Ingleton and Clapham 523 383 82 7 51 Penyghent 270 215 16 4 35 Settle and Ribblebanks 605 413 76 40 76 Skipton East 572 436 64 34 38 Skipton North 512 437 21 17 37 Skipton South 545 320 149 22 54 Skipton West 482 405 20 22 35 Sutton-in-Craven 434 307 65 31 31 Upper Wharfedale 315 271 5 5 34 West Craven 236 165 9 13 49
Craven District Total 7726 5810 860 309 747
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Hambleton
Age & Long Term Limiting Illness by ward
With a Limiting Long- All Term Ward People 65+ % 65+ 85+ % 85+ Illness % LLTI Bedale 4323 936 21.7% 162 3.7% 835 19.3% Brompton 1912 305 16.0% 29 1.5% 338 17.7% Broughton and Greenhow 1646 272 16.5% 27 1.6% 234 14.2% Cowtons 1715 251 14.6% 27 1.6% 258 15.0% Crakehall 1678 295 17.6% 23 1.4% 276 16.4% Easingwold 4142 1003 24.2% 104 2.5% 817 19.7% Great Ayton 4930 1037 21.0% 118 2.4% 891 18.1% Helperby 1830 240 13.1% 23 1.3% 227 12.4% Huby and Sutton 1904 267 14.0% 23 1.2% 260 13.7% Leeming 2486 180 7.2% 19 0.8% 250 10.1% Leeming Bar 1730 342 19.8% 51 2.9% 328 19.0% Morton-on-Swale 1719 285 16.6% 26 1.5% 251 14.6% Northallerton Broomfield 3822 852 22.3% 123 3.2% 709 18.6% Northallerton Central 4302 453 10.5% 38 0.9% 668 15.5% Northallerton North 3622 836 23.1% 98 2.7% 778 21.5% Osmotherley 1713 313 18.3% 17 1.0% 235 13.7% Romanby 3795 741 19.5% 68 1.8% 650 17.1% Rudby 3450 607 17.6% 55 1.6% 461 13.4% Shipton 2291 301 13.1% 41 1.8% 280 12.2% Sowerby 3561 819 23.0% 129 3.6% 729 20.5% Stillington 1819 353 19.4% 31 1.7% 273 15.0% Stokesley 5476 983 18.0% 120 2.2% 882 16.1% Swainby 1755 308 17.5% 31 1.8% 263 15.0% Tanfield 1755 260 14.8% 23 1.3% 242 13.8% Thirsk 5616 960 17.1% 103 1.8% 1024 18.2% Thorntons 1770 263 14.9% 25 1.4% 244 13.8% Tollerton 1691 274 16.2% 37 2.2% 270 16.0% Topcliffe 2227 266 11.9% 30 1.3% 264 11.9% White Horse 1925 348 18.1% 35 1.8% 272 14.1% Whitestonecliffe 1839 337 18.3% 28 1.5% 267 14.5%
Hambleton District Total 82444 14687 17.8% 1664 2.0% 13476 16.3%
North Yorkshire Total 553008 102581 18.5% 13545 2.4% 97316 17.6%
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Pensionable age tenure type by ward
Pensionable Rented Other Private rented age from social or Living rent Ward households Owned council rented free Bedale 619 380 19 171 49 Brompton 241 156 3 54 28 Broughton and Greenhow 204 157 0 28 19 Cowtons 187 152 0 15 20 Crakehall 218 148 3 26 41 Easingwold 746 530 15 143 58 Great Ayton 816 581 12 159 64 Helperby 174 109 0 41 24 Huby and Sutton 195 155 3 21 16 Leeming 138 94 0 28 16 Leeming Bar 219 181 0 24 14 Morton-on-Swale 204 171 0 5 28 Northallerton Broomfield 565 500 3 37 25 Northallerton Central 368 209 9 123 27 Northallerton North 651 425 13 167 46 Osmotherley 227 162 0 19 46 Romanby 567 407 5 128 27 Rudby 437 352 3 39 43 Shipton 196 148 4 30 14 Sowerby 520 409 4 54 53 Stillington 241 198 0 18 25 Stokesley 695 527 8 118 42 Swainby 237 188 4 22 23 Tanfield 201 109 3 22 67 Thirsk 769 451 13 214 91 Thorntons 185 164 0 3 18 Tollerton 163 114 0 34 15 Topcliffe 174 117 4 31 22 White Horse 263 198 3 21 41 Whitestonecliffe 235 200 0 9 26
Hambleton District Total 10655 7692 131 1804 1028
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Harrogate
Age & Long Term Limiting Illness by ward
With a Limiting Long- All Term Ward People 65+ % 65+ 85+ % 85+ Illness % LLTI Bilton 5653 746 13.2% 76 1.3% 761 13.5% Bishop Monkton 2728 490 18.0% 39 1.4% 406 14.9% Boroughbridge 2827 522 18.5% 90 3.2% 461 16.3% Claro 3033 493 16.3% 36 1.2% 388 12.8% Granby 5946 1050 17.7% 179 3.0% 1192 20.0% Harlow Moor 4779 1397 29.2% 414 8.7% 1189 24.9% High Harrogate 5344 856 16.0% 152 2.8% 951 17.8% Hookstone 5630 1116 19.8% 132 2.3% 930 16.5% Killinghall 2795 583 20.9% 87 3.1% 386 13.8% Kirkby Malzeard 2862 483 16.9% 55 1.9% 418 14.6% Knaresborough East 4879 957 19.6% 119 2.4% 804 16.5% Knaresborough King James 4867 931 19.1% 101 2.1% 779 16.0% Knaresborough Scriven Park 5050 863 17.1% 121 2.4% 783 15.5% Low Harrogate 5086 1175 23.1% 266 5.2% 988 19.4% Lower Nidderdale 3081 480 15.6% 62 2.0% 450 14.6% Marston Moor 2917 371 12.7% 51 1.7% 375 12.9% Mashamshire 2375 435 18.3% 75 3.2% 372 15.7% New Park 5340 772 14.5% 75 1.4% 778 14.6% Newby 2891 545 18.9% 72 2.5% 453 15.7% Nidd Valley 3065 475 15.5% 53 1.7% 403 13.1% Ouseburn 2777 431 15.5% 46 1.7% 359 12.9% Pannal 5523 1063 19.2% 90 1.6% 701 12.7% Pateley Bridge 2582 506 19.6% 75 2.9% 408 15.8% Ribston 2757 555 20.1% 104 3.8% 442 16.0% Ripon Minster 4828 901 18.7% 139 2.9% 900 18.6% Ripon Moorside 5157 936 18.2% 128 2.5% 897 17.4% Ripon Spa 4939 913 18.5% 122 2.5% 794 16.1% Rossett 5558 1207 21.7% 161 2.9% 822 14.8% Saltergate 6097 484 7.9% 42 0.7% 717 11.8% Spofforth with Lower Wharfedale 3009 567 18.8% 62 2.1% 442 14.7% Starbeck 5624 988 17.6% 124 2.2% 1024 18.2% Stray 5217 1039 19.9% 244 4.7% 891 17.1% Washburn 2889 446 15.4% 30 1.0% 335 11.6% Wathvale 2818 350 12.4% 46 1.6% 351 12.5% Woodfield 5269 1220 23.2% 142 2.7% 1241 23.6%
Harrogate Borough Total 146192 26346 18.0% 3810 2.6% 23591 16.1%
North Yorkshire Total 553008 102581 18.5% 13545 2.4% 97316 17.6%
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Pensionable age tenure type by ward
Pensionable Rented Private rented age from Other social or Living rent Ward households Owned council rented free Bilton 578 523 28 3 24 Bishop Monkton 363 286 33 5 39 Boroughbridge 381 239 67 27 48 Claro 362 283 36 0 43 Granby 740 507 166 17 50 Harlow Moor 750 610 5 81 54 High Harrogate 676 573 19 17 67 Hookstone 771 680 43 15 33 Killinghall 411 350 23 6 32 Kirkby Malzeard 354 258 35 6 55 Knaresborough East 725 493 122 26 84 Knaresborough King James 670 540 62 3 65 Knaresborough Scriven Park 589 489 52 14 34 Low Harrogate 881 666 14 83 118 Lower Nidderdale 361 284 22 4 51 Marston Moor 255 188 32 8 27 Mashamshire 326 209 56 11 50 New Park 610 491 31 38 50 Newby 372 261 54 3 54 Nidd Valley 330 262 25 0 43 Ouseburn 296 210 49 3 34 Pannal 737 685 17 3 32 Pateley Bridge 382 260 84 0 38 Ribston 342 270 25 3 44 Ripon Minster 682 386 161 57 78 Ripon Moorside 611 482 79 16 34 Ripon Spa 611 500 54 17 40 Rossett 834 796 5 4 29 Saltergate 407 258 61 64 24 Spofforth with Lower Wharfedale 370 283 41 11 35 Starbeck 766 613 82 17 54 Stray 672 570 26 17 59 Washburn 315 235 14 3 63 Wathvale 270 176 39 0 55 Woodfield 1016 517 396 7 96
Harrogate Borough Total 18816 14433 2058 589 1736
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Richmondshire
Age & Long Term Limiting Illness by ward
With a Limiting Long- All Term Ward People 65+ % 65+ 85+ % 85+ Illness % LLTI Addlebrough 1229 330 26.9% 56 4.6% 221 18.0% Barton 1272 226 17.8% 17 1.3% 197 15.5% Bolton Castle 1202 264 22.0% 22 1.8% 231 19.2% Brompton-on-Swale and Scorton 2776 442 15.9% 62 2.2% 471 17.0% Catterick 2392 350 14.6% 37 1.5% 414 17.3% Colburn 3507 376 10.7% 46 1.3% 641 18.3% Croft 1290 192 14.9% 17 1.3% 183 14.2% Gilling West 1203 202 16.8% 23 1.9% 172 14.3% Hawes and High Abbotside 1303 259 19.9% 32 2.5% 221 17.0% Hipswell 3496 108 3.1% 19 0.5% 316 9.0% Hornby Castle 1207 167 13.8% 11 0.9% 192 15.9% Leyburn 2150 682 31.7% 100 4.7% 492 22.9% Lower Wensleydale 1263 234 18.5% 15 1.2% 185 14.6% Melsonby 1323 193 14.6% 17 1.3% 194 14.7% Middleham 1291 248 19.2% 11 0.9% 190 14.7% Middleton Tyas 1155 298 25.8% 47 4.1% 267 23.1% Newsham with Eppleby 1197 197 16.5% 21 1.8% 187 15.6% Penhill 1138 232 20.4% 18 1.6% 194 17.0% Reeth and Arkengarthdale 1121 245 21.9% 24 2.1% 187 16.7% Richmond Central 2694 587 21.8% 104 3.9% 567 21.0% Richmond East 2741 470 17.1% 40 1.5% 393 14.3% Richmond West 2643 448 17.0% 55 2.1% 501 19.0% Scotton 2843 188 6.6% 47 1.7% 388 13.6% Swaledale 1099 218 19.8% 25 2.3% 166 15.1%
Richmondshire District Total 43535 7156 16.4% 866 2.0% 7170 16.5%
North Yorkshire Total 553008 102581 18.5% 13545 2.4% 97316 17.6%
19
Pensionable age tenure type by ward
Private Pensionable Rented Other rented or age from social Living rent Ward households Owned council rented free Addlebrough 227 177 23 7 20 Barton 166 117 25 0 24 Bolton Castle 190 150 7 0 33 Brompton-on-Swale and Scorton 283 181 73 3 26 Catterick 267 198 46 3 20 Colburn 289 155 108 4 22 Croft 133 99 14 0 20 Gilling West 158 82 22 0 54 Hawes and High Abbotside 205 161 11 0 33 Hipswell 78 39 32 3 4 Hornby Castle 116 92 13 0 11 Leyburn 471 369 58 0 44 Lower Wensleydale 162 114 16 0 32 Melsonby 146 88 34 0 24 Middleham 194 133 24 3 34 Middleton Tyas 173 133 20 0 20 Newsham with Eppleby 151 102 15 3 31 Penhill 171 145 5 6 15 Reeth and Arkengarthdale 185 137 27 0 21 Richmond Central 420 244 116 22 38 Richmond East 339 313 8 3 15 Richmond West 351 238 55 7 51 Scotton 91 82 3 0 6 Swaledale 169 131 6 0 32
Richmondshire District Total 5135 3680 761 66 630
20
Ryedale
Age & Long Term Limiting Illness by ward
With a Limiting Long- All Term Ward People 65+ % 65+ 85+ % 85+ Illness % LLTI Amotherby 1805 255 14.1% 18 1.0% 247 13.7% Ampleforth 1468 318 21.7% 30 2.0% 266 18.1% Cropton 1494 316 21.2% 23 1.5% 265 17.7% Dales 1551 258 16.6% 25 1.6% 214 13.8% Derwent 3357 575 17.1% 54 1.6% 514 15.3% Helmsley 3053 782 25.6% 98 3.2% 520 17.0% Hovingham 1720 357 20.8% 29 1.7% 279 16.2% Kirkbymoorside 3281 789 24.0% 87 2.7% 578 17.6% Malton 4907 1146 23.4% 187 3.8% 957 19.5% Norton East 3347 707 21.1% 97 2.9% 664 19.8% Norton West 3428 502 14.6% 60 1.8% 478 13.9% Pickering East 3274 847 25.9% 143 4.4% 641 19.6% Pickering West 3467 805 23.2% 123 3.5% 701 20.2% Rillington 1736 344 19.8% 38 2.2% 280 16.1% Ryedale South West 1590 316 19.9% 51 3.2% 298 18.7% Sherburn 1882 330 17.5% 26 1.4% 329 17.5% Sheriff Hutton 1702 288 16.9% 34 2.0% 230 13.5% Sinnington 1683 338 20.1% 32 1.9% 225 13.4% Thornton Dale 3228 886 27.4% 153 4.7% 626 19.4% Wolds 1596 230 14.4% 19 1.2% 261 16.4%
Ryedale District Total 49569 10389 21.0% 1327 2.7% 8573 17.3%
North Yorkshire Total 553008 102581 18.5% 13545 2.4% 97316 17.6%
21
Pensionable age tenure type by ward
Private Pensionable Rented Other rented or age from social Living rent Ward households Owned council rented free Amotherby 192 143 3 20 26 Ampleforth 233 172 3 32 26 Cropton 229 191 0 15 23 Dales 203 154 0 5 44 Derwent 425 235 5 67 118 Helmsley 556 366 8 89 93 Hovingham 258 159 5 34 60 Kirkbymoorside 604 448 5 96 55 Malton 813 476 16 212 109 Norton East 488 269 9 173 37 Norton West 322 284 0 4 34 Pickering East 618 467 7 85 59 Pickering West 595 430 6 108 51 Rillington 271 162 5 54 50 Ryedale South West 194 127 0 19 48 Sherburn 236 148 7 54 27 Sheriff Hutton 215 166 3 26 20 Sinnington 241 175 3 18 45 Thornton Dale 585 458 3 58 66 Wolds 153 102 4 19 28
Ryedale District Total 7431 5132 92 1188 1019
22
Scarborough
Age & Long Term Limiting Illness by ward
With a Limiting Long- All Term Ward People 65+ % 65+ 85+ % 85+ Illness % LLTI Castle 4008 769 19.2% 98 2.4% 1021 25.5% Cayton 4153 960 23.1% 97 2.3% 815 19.6% Central 4692 520 11.1% 75 1.6% 734 15.6% Danby 1911 376 19.7% 41 2.1% 468 24.5% Derwent Valley 4471 981 21.9% 124 2.8% 834 18.7% Eastfield 5823 717 12.3% 83 1.4% 1245 21.4% Esk Valley 4178 969 23.2% 114 2.7% 870 20.8% Falsgrave Park 4007 818 20.4% 106 2.6% 872 21.8% Filey 6337 2032 32.1% 279 4.4% 1782 28.1% Fylingdales 2050 501 24.4% 77 3.8% 498 24.3% Hertford 4728 1147 24.3% 145 3.1% 1154 24.4% Lindhead 2093 483 23.1% 56 2.7% 403 19.3% Mayfield 4514 976 21.6% 118 2.6% 947 21.0% Mulgrave 3695 760 20.6% 70 1.9% 802 21.7% Newby 6475 545 8.4% 72 1.1% 1241 19.2% North Bay 4205 653 15.5% 57 1.4% 871 20.7% Northstead 3946 931 23.6% 151 3.8% 827 21.0% Ramshill 3598 1100 30.6% 243 6.8% 1140 31.7% Scalby, Hackness and Staintondale 3948 1069 27.1% 130 3.3% 736 18.6% Seamer 4094 783 19.1% 73 1.8% 755 18.4% Stepney 4055 1015 25.0% 214 5.3% 975 24.0% Streonshalh 4825 668 13.8% 76 1.6% 929 19.3% Weaponness 3165 1344 42.5% 275 8.7% 1024 32.4% Whitby West Cliff 3908 1053 26.9% 156 4.0% 1048 26.8% Woodlands 4555 714 15.7% 94 2.1% 951 20.9%
Scarborough Borough Total 103434 21884 21.2% 3024 2.9% 22942 22.2%
North Yorkshire Total 553008 102581 18.5% 13545 2.4% 97316 17.6%
23
Pensionable age tenure type by ward
Pensionable Rented Other age from social Private rented or Ward households Owned council rented Living rent free Castle 637 272 141 98 126 Cayton 714 624 40 23 27 Central 432 312 9 47 64 Danby 260 193 28 0 39 Derwent Valley 709 584 44 8 73 Eastfield 579 249 245 14 71 Esk Valley 694 531 94 4 65 Falsgrave Park 633 332 175 64 62 Filey 1456 1192 130 28 106 Fylingdales 334 265 33 3 33 Hertford 788 660 68 11 49 Lindhead 355 292 22 24 17 Mayfield 730 495 140 40 55 Mulgrave 598 402 70 3 123 Newby 1003 844 113 6 40 North Bay 513 373 39 36 65 Northstead 677 498 124 4 51 Ramshill 680 494 36 14 136 Scalby, Hackness and Staintondale 783 665 62 10 46 Seamer 578 504 41 3 30 Stepney 677 510 36 70 61 Streonshalh 518 346 107 19 46 Weaponness 818 717 6 23 72 Whitby West Cliff 726 522 46 63 95 Woodlands 557 245 223 51 38
Scarborough Borough Total 16449 12121 2072 666 1590
24
Selby
Age & Long Term Limiting Illness by ward
With a Limiting Long- All Term Ward People 65+ % 65+ 85+ % 85+ Illness % LLTI Appleton Roebuck 1764 238 13.5% 30 1.7% 197 11.2% Barlby 3833 487 12.7% 56 1.5% 580 15.1% Brayton 5500 733 13.3% 69 1.3% 780 14.2% Camblesforth 4009 517 12.9% 50 1.2% 622 15.5% Cawood with Wistow 3789 511 13.5% 52 1.4% 538 14.2% Eggborough 3314 508 15.3% 57 1.7% 613 18.5% Fairburn with Brotherton 3446 502 14.6% 44 1.3% 705 20.5% Hambleton 5186 747 14.4% 79 1.5% 826 15.9% Hemingbrough 3571 464 13.0% 36 1.0% 503 14.1% Monk Fryston and South Milford 3426 492 14.4% 51 1.5% 484 14.1% North Duffield 1753 196 11.2% 16 0.9% 205 11.7% Riccall with Escrick 3884 655 16.9% 109 2.8% 677 17.4% Saxton and Ulleskelf 2002 241 12.0% 44 2.2% 247 12.3% Selby North 5673 916 16.1% 142 2.5% 1140 20.1% Selby South 3412 540 15.8% 62 1.8% 659 19.3% Selby West 3720 848 22.8% 153 4.1% 732 19.7% Sherburn in Elmet 6189 821 13.3% 92 1.5% 936 15.1% Tadcaster East 3812 577 15.1% 51 1.3% 604 15.8% Tadcaster West 3482 724 20.8% 98 2.8% 614 17.6% Whitley 3732 546 14.6% 46 1.2% 661 17.7%
Selby District Total 75497 11263 14.9% 1337 1.8% 12323 16.3%
North Yorkshire Total 553008 102581 18.5% 13545 2.4% 97316 17.6%
25
Pensionable age tenure type by ward
Private Pensionable Rented rented or age from Other social Living rent Ward households Owned council rented free Appleton Roebuck 166 117 11 0 38 Barlby 369 287 55 9 18 Brayton 534 447 63 5 19 Camblesforth 375 291 52 0 32 Cawood with Wistow 393 288 47 21 37 Eggborough 356 280 51 0 25 Fairburn with Brotherton 380 253 95 6 26 Hambleton 521 443 40 19 19 Hemingbrough 332 275 28 8 21 Monk Fryston and South Milford 371 238 70 29 34 North Duffield 142 100 20 3 19 Riccall with Escrick 406 318 43 6 39 Saxton and Ulleskelf 151 114 18 0 19 Selby North 714 309 226 116 63 Selby South 416 193 165 17 41 Selby West 534 482 26 10 16 Sherburn in Elmet 614 406 150 3 55 Tadcaster East 445 281 94 5 65 Tadcaster West 548 315 199 3 31 Whitley 400 281 69 7 43
Selby District Total 8167 5718 1522 267 660
26
North Yorkshire County Council
Review of the Demand Estimates used in the Housing Needs Analysis (Accommodation with Care)
Final Report – 1 September 2010
Contact: Andy Rumfitt, Director
Innovacion Limited 70 Cowcross St London EC1M 6EJ T: 020 7251 6797 M: 07710 385813 F: 0870 137 0810 E: [email protected] W: www.innovacion.co.uk
1 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
Contents
1 Introduction...... 3 1.1 Background...... 3 1.2 Approach...... 4 2 Historic Population Change (1981 – 2008)...... 6 2.2 Population Change (1981 – 2008)...... 6 2.3 Population Change for 65+ Group (1981 – 2008) ...... 8 2.4 Key Points...... 10 3 Population Projections ...... 11 3.2 Population Projections for 65+...... 11 3.3 Revised Growth Scenarios ...... 17 3.4 Key Points...... 18 4 Demand Forecasts – Care Needs...... 19 4.2 Demand from Older People and Other Adults...... 19 4.3 Care Needs of Forecast 65+ Population (2010-2020)...... 21 4.4 Estimated Future Demand for Accommodation with Care for People Aged 65+ in North Yorkshire ...... 25 4.5 Assumptions ...... 27 4.6 Key Points...... 28 5 District Level Demand Estimates ...... 29 5.2 Craven District ...... 29 5.3 Hambleton District ...... 30 5.4 Harrogate District...... 30 5.5 Richmondshire District...... 32 5.6 Ryedale District...... 33 5.7 Scarborough District ...... 34 5.8 Selby District...... 35 5.9 Key Points...... 36 6 Supply Side – The Accommodation with Care Sector in North Yorkshire ...... 38 6.2 Size of the Accommodation with Care Sector ...... 38 6.3 Potential Impacts of the Extra Care Housing Programme...... 38 6.4 Key Points...... 39 7 Conclusions ...... 40 8 Appendix – District Demand Data ...... 42
2 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
1 Introduction
1.1 Background
1.1.1 Extra Care Housing is an innovative housing solution to a care need. Since 2003 North Yorkshire County Council has developed 12 new Extra Care Housing (ECH) schemes 1 with six local partners including housing associations and district councils resulting in 555 units under management. Costing between £6 million and £8 million each scheme has been developed and run by housing associations. Seven of the new Extra Care schemes have been replacements for the County Council's existing residential care homes. The Rivendale scheme (51 units) in Northallerton recently opened in May 2010 and by March 2011 two further schemes at Tadcaster (50 units) and Richmond (39 units) will be completed, taking the total provision to 644 units. The normal build period is about 18 months. The role and nature of partners can vary with each scheme in terms of land provision, finance and role in the development process. Normally the County Council has provided the land and/or a capital sum to support the development. The Housing Corporation, now the Homes and Communities Agency, has been an important investor in the majority of the Extra Care schemes. Extra Care Housing
• A new way of supporting people to live independently for as long as possible.
• Security and privacy for older people in their own home.
• The opportunity for couples and friends to stay together
• A mix of able and less able older people to reflect a true community.
• Options to buy or rent with security of tenure. The aim is a home for life without the need to move into residential care. Residents retain control over their finances.
• A range of facilities on the premises. All have restaurants that are open to all and not just residents. The schemes are more like a modern version of a community centre. Facilities required within each scheme reflect the needs of the locality but could include GP’s surgery, library, cinema, village shop, post office, hairdressers. Services within the scheme are often run on a social enterprise basis
• Access to 24 hour care and support services if they are required.
• A range of optional onsite social activities such as bake days, painting and technology. These social activities and services can be made available to the wider community with people often coming for lunch and to take part in activities that are run by the community.
• Telecare technology is integrated to support independent living (e.g. call systems, fall detectors, motion sensors).
1.1.2 The County Council’s Extra Care Team has worked in partnership with the seven districts and boroughs, strategic commissioners and operational staff to discuss the future need for Accommodation with Care across the County. The resulting Housing Needs Analysis (HNA) suggests a need for a further 31 Extra Care Schemes which could have a possible capital value of £217 million at a cost of £7 million per scheme. A separate Programme Delivery Register
1 There is an additional converted sheltered housing scheme offering extra care services. 3 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
(PDR) gives details of the 31 proposed projects in terms of the required location, potential partners, land availability and other factors such as prioritisation and relative levels of development constraints. Some identified schemes will enable the replacement of the County Council’s existing Elderly People’s Homes (EPHs). Discussions have been held with the Local Planning Authorities 2 (NYPOG has been used as a forum in the past) and the appropriate LPA’s LDF is generally supportive of the proposed development in each locality.
1.1.3 In terms of reviewing the existing HNA this assessment of future potential demand for ECHs aims to:
(a) test, validate and enhance the demand evidence presented in the HNA before submission to the County’s Directorate Management Board in late September;
(b) assess the match between the HNA demand side and the potential supply side provision outlined in the PDR;
(c) complete some geographical market analysis on the basis of the seven boroughs and districts and specific PDR locations; and
(d) identify the likely future number of self-funding residents as a precursor to financial modelling as well as confirming the numbers who currently self fund in private residential / nursing homes and how this number has changed over the last five years.
1.2 Approach
1.2.1 The following tasks were completed to consider the potential gross future additional demand from an ageing population for accommodation with care in terms of Extra Care Housing schemes and other services in North Yorkshire and to review and sense check the County Council’s initial HNA in advance of developing a more detailed business case:
(a) Using Office of National Statistics (ONS) Mid Year Population estimates the population change in North Yorkshire was analysed between 1981 and 2008. Data for demographic age bands and a range of comparator areas were analysed. Data from the most recent Census in 2001 which is now nine years old are very dated and likely to result in an underestimate of demand 3.
(b) The most up to date Department of Health (DoH) / Institute of Public Care (IPC) population projections (POPPI release 5.0 from 9 July 2010) were analysed to assess the increase in the older population to 2030 and a number of more conservative linear projections were developed to consider the impacts of over-estimating demand.
(c) Estimation of the gross potential future additional demand for accommodation with care from older people and 18-64 year olds with learning or physical disabilities (using PANSI data release 4.0 9 July 2010) as well as other indicators of future care needs under the growth scenarios. These demand estimates were converted into demand for Extra Care Homes across public and private sector provision under the various growth scenarios.
(d) To consider more local demand the analysis completed at the county level is replicated for each of the seven districts to review the quantum of local provision proposed by North Yorkshire CC in their Programme Delivery Register.
2 Comprising seven district and borough councils (Craven, Hambleton, Harrogate, Richmondshire, Ryedale, Scarborough and Selby) and two National Park Authorities. 3 For example the 85+ population in North Yorkshire is likely to have been growing by about 3% per annum since 2001 which over the nine year period would result in the total number of 85+ people increasing by 30.5% 4 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
(e) An assessment of the scale of the accommodation with care sector in North Yorkshire and the potential economic and other impacts of the proposed ECH development programme.
1.2.2 The report is structured in sections based around these tasks with additional district level data provided in the appendix.
5 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
2 Historic Population Change (1981 – 2008)
2.1.1 This chapter analyses population change in North Yorkshire between 1981 and 2008 by age band and against a range of comparators.
2.2 Population Change (1981 – 2008)
2.2.1 Between 1981 and 2008 the population of North Yorkshire increased from 511,300 to 599,200 4. This was an increase of 87,900 people (+17%) over a 27 year period at an annualised rate of 0.6%. As a broad indicator the population grew by about 3,260 people each year.
2.2.2 Growth has varied across the different age groups. The highest absolute growth occurred amongst 50-64 year olds (+39,800 or +47%) at an average annual rate of about 1.4%. From comprising 16.6% of the population in 1981 the 50-64 year old age group grew to 20.8% by 2008. The highest percentage increase occurred in the 85+ age group (+130% or +9,000) which grew by more than 3% each year. From making up 1.3% of the total population in 1981 the proportion of this age group doubled to 2.7% by 2008. High quantums of growth were also evident for 20-49 year olds (+26,900 or +14%) and 65-84 year olds (+17,400 or + 21%) North Yorkshire Population Change 1981 – 2008. 1981 2008 Change
Annual Proportion Proportion Actual % Proportion Rate
0-19 143,200 28.0% 138,100 23.0% -5,100 -3.56% -0.13% -5.0%
20-49 193,700 37.9% 220,600 36.8% 26,900 13.89% 0.48% -1.1%
50-64 85,100 16.6% 124,900 20.8% 39,800 46.77% 1.43% 4.2%
65-84 82,300 16.1% 99,700 16.6% 17,400 21.14% 0.71% 0.5%
85+ 6,900 1.3% 15,900 2.7% 9,000 130.43% 3.14% 1.3%
Total 511,300 599,200 87,900 17.19% 0.59%
4 ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates 1981 to 2008. Innovacion analysis. 6 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
North Yorkshire: Population Change 1981-2008
700,000 15,900 600,000 6,900 99,700 500,000 82,300 85+ 400,000 124,900 85,100 65-84 300,000 50-64 193,700 220,600 20-49 200,000 0-19 100,000 143,200 138,100 0 1981 2008
Source: ONS Mid Year Population Estimates. Innovacion analysis. Figures may not sum due to rounding.
2.2.3 While the annual rate of population growth in North Yorkshire was about double the GB rate between 1981 and 2008, higher growth rates have been experienced in a number of comparator areas, especially the large rural counties.
Comparators: Annualised rates of Population Change 1981-2008
1.2% 1.12%
1.0% 0.84% 0.86% 0.73% 0.8% 0.65% 0.59% 0.6% 0.35% 0.4% 0.29% 0.31% 0.22% 0.2% 0.0% -0.02% -0.2%
Source: ONS Mid Year Population Estimates. Innovacion analysis.
7 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
Comparators: Population Change 1981-2008 (1981=100)
140
130
North Yorkshire Staffordshire 120 Cornwall Devon Dorset County Durham 110 Huntingdonshire Suffolk England GB 100 Yorkshire & Humberside
90 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: ONS Mid Year Population Estimates. Innovacion analysis.
2.3 Population Change for 65+ Group (1981 – 2008)
2.3.1 The average annual rate of growth for the number of people aged 85+ in North Yorkshire was 3.14% between 1981 and 2008, slightly above the national rate. However, many of the comparator areas have seen higher annual growth rates, including up to 4.7% per annum.
2.3.2 The average annual rate of growth for the number of people aged 65-84 in North Yorkshire was 0.71% between 1981 and 2008, more than double the national rate. However, many of the comparator areas have seen higher annual growth rates, including up to 2.0% per annum.
2.3.3 The average annual rate of growth for the number of people aged 65+ in North Yorkshire was 0.96% between 1981 and 2008, just under double the national rate. However, many of the comparator areas have seen higher annual growth rates, including up to 1.7% per annum for the comparatively sized county of Staffordshire.
8 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
Comparators: Annualised rates of Population Change for 65-84 year olds, 85+ and 65+ 1981-2008
65-84 85+ 65+
5.0% 4.7%
4.5% 4.1% 4.2% 3.9% 4.0% 3.6% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 1.7% 1.4% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Source: ONS Mid Year Population Estimates. Innovacion analysis.
2.3.4 By 2008 people aged 65+ made up more than 19% of the total population of North Yorkshire, broadly in line with the other comparators with Dorset the highest at more than 24%. The totals of people aged 65+ by area in 2008 were: GB 9,681,200 England 8,285,300 Yorkshire & Humberside 839,400 Devon 160,400 Staffordshire 145,500 Suffolk 136,500 North Yorkshire 115,600 Cornwall 110,400 Devon 99,500 County Durham 87,400 Huntingdonshire 24,900
9 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
Comparators: Proportion of Population Aged 65+ in 2008
30% 24.4% 25% 20.7% 21.3% 19.1% 19.3% 20% 17.6% 16.1% 16.1% 16.2% 17.2% 14.7% 15%
10%
5%
0%
Source: ONS Mid Year Population Estimates. Innovacion analysis.
2.4 Key Points
Since 1981 the population of North Yorkshire grew by 0.6% per annum (+3,260) to reach 599,200 by 2008, a total increase of 87,900 (17%) over 27 years. The average annual growth rate was about double the national average.
High absolute and proportionate rates of growth in older people are evident in this period (e.g. +39,800 50-64 year olds and +130% in 85+ group). The population aged 65+ grew at more than double the national rate to make up 19% of the population by 2008 (115,600). The annual growth rate of people aged 85+ has averaged 3.1% per annum since 1981.
10 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
3 Population Projections
3.1.1 The main source of future detailed population estimates is the Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI) which has been developed by the Institute of Public Care (IPC) for the Care Services Efficiency Delivery Programme (CSED) of the Department of Health (DoH). The data is designed for use by local authority planners and commissioners of social care provision in England, together with providers and supporting organisations. The indicators and forecasts are designed to explore the possible impact that demography and certain conditions may have on the needs of populations aged 65 and over to 2030.
3.1.2 This section analyses the most recent POPPI projections from 9 July 2010 (Update 5.0) and compares these to the historic population trends. Despite the general acceptance of the POPPI forecasts, to assist North Yorkshire County Council in considering the impacts of over-estimating demand (a common mistake) a number of linear population growth scenarios are developed which are lower (i.e. more conservative) than the POPPI projections.
3.2 Population Projections for 65+
3.2.1 Between 2001 and 2008 the numbers of people aged 65+ in North Yorkshire increased by 11,800 from 103,800 to 115,600, an increase of 11.4% at an annual rate of 1.55%. POPPI 5 annual forecasts from 2010 to 2014 (based on 2008 ONS mid-year population estimates) suggest an acceleration (in fact doubling) in the annual growth rate to 3.13% per annum in North Yorkshire. This would result in a 20% increase the 65+ group by 2014 with the total rising by 23,500 from 115,600 in 2008 to 139,100 in 2014.
5 POPPI (Projecting Older People Population Information) uses Office for National Statistics (ONS) sub-national population projections by sex and quinary age. The latest sub-national population projections available for England, published 27 May 2010, are based on the 2008 mid-year population estimates and project forward the population from 2008 to 2033. Long term population projections are an indication of the future trends in population by age and gender over the next 25 years. They are trend based projections, which means assumptions for future levels of births, deaths and migration are based on observed levels mainly over the previous five years. They show what the population will be if recent trends in these continue. The projections do not take into account any future policy changes. 11 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
North Yorkshire: Population Aged 65+ 2001 – 2014
ONS Mid Year Population Estimates POPPI Forecasts
160,000 139,100 135,100
140,000 130,400 125,100 121,700 115,600 113,000 111,300
120,000 110,000 108,400 107,000 105,400 103,800 100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: ONS Mid Year Population Estimates 2001 to 2008. POPPI forecasts 2010-2014. Innovacion analysis. Data not available for 2009.
3.2.2 In the longer term POPPI projections suggest the 65+ group in North Yorkshire could reach 196,100 by 2030 from 110,000 in 2005, an increase of 86,100 (+78%) over 25 years at an average annual rate of 2.34%.
12 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
North Yorkshire: Population Aged 65+ 2000 – 2030 (5 Year Intervals)
250,000 ONS Mid Year Population POPPI Forecasts Estimates 196,100 200,000 175,400 157,500 150,000 142,500 121,700 110,000 102,500 100,000
50,000
0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: ONS Mid Year Population Estimates for 2000 and 2005. POPPI forecasts for 2010 onwards. Innovacion analysis.
3.2.3 POPPI forecasts in the short and longer term imply a much higher annual growth rate of the 65+ group in North Yorkshire than has been achieved recently (2002-8), in the longer term (1981- 2008) in the County and in comparator areas such as Dorset, a relatively rural county which has experienced higher levels of total population growth. Therefore to undertake some sensitivity analysis these different annual growth rates were used to develop a range of future scenarios for the 65+ age group in North Yorkshire.
3.2.4 Underlying these forecasts is the long term trend of rising life expectancy of men and women in the UK. For a man born in the UK in 1980-2 the average life expectancy was 70.8 years and 76.8 for a woman 6. By 2006-8 this had risen respectively to 77.4 for a man and 81.6 for a woman. As a rule of thumb, therefore, since 1980-82 the average life expectancy of a man has been increasing by a year every four years and the average life expectancy of a woman has been increasing by a year every five years.
6 Official of National Statistics / Government Actuary’s Department – Interim Life Tables 1980-82 to 2006-08. 13 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
Actual and Forecast Annual Growth Rates of 65+ Age Group
3.5% 3.13% 3.0% 2.61% 2.43% 2.5%
2.0% 1.55% 1.5% 1.21% 1.26% 0.96% 1.0%
0.5%
0.0% POPPI POPPI POPPI North North Dorset 2002- Dorset 1981- Forecast Forecast Forecast Yorkshire Yorkshire 2008 2008 2008-2014 2008-2020 2008-2030 2002-2008 1981-2008
Source: ONS Mid Year Population Estimates 1981 to 2008. POPPI forecasts for North Yorkshire 2010-2030. Innovacion analysis.
3.2.5 These seven different annual growth rates were applied to the 2008 ONS mid-year population estimates to project forward, in a simple linear manner, the population totals for the 65+ age group in North Yorkshire in 2010, 2020 and 2030.
14 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
Scenarios: Forecast Growth of 65+ Age Group in North Yorkshire to 2030 with different annual growth rates
250,000
200,000 227,734 203,766 150,000 196,045
167,332 2008 162,150 157,483 154,200 152,262 150,617 2010 142,641
100,000 139,033 134,342 133,548 2020 129,643 2030
50,000
0 POPPI POPPI POPPI North North Dorset 2002- Dorset 1981- Forecast Forecast Forecast Yorkshire Yorkshire 2008 2008 2008-2014 2008-2020 2008-2030 2002-2008 1981-2008
Source: ONS Mid Year Population Estimates for 2008. Innovacion analysis.
3.2.6 Under these seven scenarios between 2008 and 2020 the growth of the 65+ population in North Yorkshire was found to range from 14,000 (+12.1%) to 51,700 (+44.8%) resulting in 2020 totals that ranged from a low of 129,600 to a high of 167,300.
3.2.7 Over the long time period between 2008 and 2030 the growth of the 65+ population in North Yorkshire ranged from 27,000 (+23.4%) to 112,100 (+97.0%) resulting in 2030 totals that ranged from a low of 142,600 to a high of 227,700.
15 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
Growth Scenarios for 65+ population in North Yorkshire Annual Growth Rate 2001 2008 2010 2020 2030 2008-2020 % 2008-2030 %
POPPI Forecast 2008-2014 3.13% 103,800 115,600 122,950 167,332 227,734 51,732 44.8% 112,134 97.0%
POPPI Forecast 2008-2020 2.61% 103,800 115,600 121,713 157,483 203,766 41,883 36.2% 88,166 76.3%
POPPI Forecast 2008-2030 2.43% 103,800 115,600 121,286 154,200 196,045 38,600 33.4% 80,445 69.6%
North Yorkshire 2002-2008 1.55% 103,800 115,600 119,211 139,033 162,150 23,433 20.3% 46,550 40.3%
North Yorkshire 1981-2008 0.96% 103,800 115,600 117,830 129,643 142,641 14,043 12.1% 27,041 23.4%
Dorset 2002-2008 1.21% 103,800 115,600 118,414 133,548 150,617 17,948 15.5% 35,017 30.3%
Dorset 1981-2008 1.26% 103,800 115,600 118,531 134,342 152,262 18,742 16.2% 36,662 31.7%
3.2.8 In the HNA 7 completed by North Yorkshire CC in May 2010 (which uses earlier versions of the POPPI forecasts) the 65+ population was forecast to increase to 155,300 by 2020, an increase of 39,700 (+34.3%) since 2008. This was an implied annual growth rate of 2.49%.
7 North Yorkshire County Council: Housing Needs Analysis – Accommodation with Care (May 2010) 16 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
3.3 Revised Growth Scenarios
3.3.1 After considering the seven annual growth rates, we concluded that the future potential additional gross demand for accommodation with care and Extra Care Housing should be considered against three forward growth scenarios for the 65+ population. They are:
o 1.5% per annum to reflect a lower growth scenario and the recent growth rate in North Yorkshire (1.55%)
o 2.0% per annum to reflect a medium growth scenario and to factor a one-third acceleration in the growth rate year-on-year.
o 2.5% per annum to reflect a high growth scenario which is based on (a) the longer term and generally accepted POPPI forecasts and (b) the annual growth rate used in North Yorkshire CC’s initial HNA.
3.3.2 Applying the three growth scenarios gives estimated projections for the population aged 65+ in North Yorkshire from 2008 to 2020 and 2030 respectively.
o Under the lower growth scenario (1.5%) the 65+ population would increase to 138,200 by 2020 (+22,600) and 160,400 by 2030 (+44,800)
o Under the medium growth scenario (2.0%) the 65+ population would increase to 146,600 by 2020 (+31,000) and 178,700 by 2030 (+63,100)
o Under the high growth scenario (2.5%) the 65+ population would increase to 155,500 by 2020 (+39,900) and 199,014 by 2030 (+83,400) Revised Growth Scenarios for 65+ Population in North Yorkshire Growth 2008- 2008- 2008 2010 2020 2030 % % Rate 2020 2030
1.50% 115,600 119,094 138,213 160,402 22,613 19.6% 44,802 38.8%
2.00% 115,600 120,270 146,609 178,715 31,009 26.8% 63,115 54.6%
2.50% 115,600 121,452 155,469 199,014 39,869 34.5% 83,414 72.2%
17 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
3.4 Key Points
The growth of the older aged groups is forecast to accelerate in the next five years linked to the longer term trend of rising life expectancy. The ONS mid-year population estimates between 2001 and 2008 suggest an average annual increase of 1.55% in the 65+ population in North Yorkshire. From 2008 this annual rate of growth is projected to double to +3.13% under the POPPI forecasts from 2008 to 2014. The result would be a 20% increase in the 65+ population by 2014. In the longer term the POPPI forecasts suggest that the 65+ population will grow by 2.34% per annum so the group increases by 86,100 people (+78%) between 2005 and 2030.
Three revised growth scenarios were developed to consider potential future gross demand for accommodation with care and Extra Care Housing. A low growth scenario (+1.5% per annum) suggests that from 2008 the 65+ population will increase by 22,600 (+20%) by 2020 and by 44,800 (+39%) by 2030. A medium growth scenario (+2% per annum) suggests that from 2008 the 65+ population will increase by 31,000 (+27%) by 2020 and by 63,100 (+55%) by 2030. In line with the long run POPPI forecast (+2.43%) and the initial HNA (+2.49%) a high growth scenario (+2.5% per annum) suggests that from 2008 the 65+ population will increase by 39,900 (+35%) by 2020 and by 83,400 (+72%) by 2030.
18 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
4 Demand Forecasts – Care Needs
4.1.1 This section considers the gross potential demand for accommodation with care from older people and 18-64 year olds with learning or physical disabilities as well as other indicators of future care needs. These demand estimates are converted into the likely demand for Extra Care Home provision from the public and private sector and from the public sector (supported residents) under the various growth scenarios.
4.2 Demand from Older People and Other Adults
4.2.1 Potential future demand for accommodation with care comes from people aged 65+, people aged 18-64 with moderate or severe learning disabilities and people aged 18-64 with moderate or serious physical disabilities. The accepted prevalence rates 8 amongst the 18-64 population are: about 0.55% of people having moderate or severe learning disabilities and about 11% of people aged 16-64 have moderate or serious physical disabilities. These rates have been applied to the POPPI/PANSI population forecasts for all growth scenarios. However, the most significant change in demand for accommodation with care is being driven by an ageing population.
4.2.2 Based on the 2008 ONS Mid Year Population Estimates and the PANSI prevalence rates the current accommodation with care market in North Yorkshire is estimated at 155,500 in 2008 broken down as follows:
o 1,900 people aged 20-64 9 having moderate or severe learning disabilities (0.55%);
o 38,000 people aged 20-64 have moderate or serious physical disabilities (11%); and
o 115,600 people aged 65+ (19.3%).
8 Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information (PANSI) forecasts the numbers, characteristics and needs of adults, aged 18-64, by locality in terms of learning disabilities, physical disabilities and mental health issues. The most recent data from Update 4 (9 July 2010) has been used in the analysis. 9 ONS use a slightly narrower age band. 19 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
Scenarios: Forecast Growth of the potential Accommodation with Care Market in North Yorkshire 2010 to 2030 with different annual growth rates for 65+ population
300,000
250,000
200,000 240,661 237,747 220,362
217,672 1.50% 217,173 203,641 202,049
150,000 199,098 197,067 2.00% 190,668 188,207 183,837 179,811 178,749
174,125 2.50% 169,635 163,001 162,753 161,571 100,000 160,395 POPPI (2.43%)
50,000
0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
NB. Demand comes for 65+ population and people aged 18/20-64 with moderate or serious learning or physical disabilities. Source: ONS Mid Year Population Estimates for 2008. POPPI and PANSI. Innovacion analysis.
4.2.3 Over the next five years between 2010 and 2015 under the high growth forecast (2.5%) the potential accommodation with care market 10 is estimated to increase by 16,000 (+10%, about 3,200 per annum), under the medium growth forecast (2.0%) the market is estimated to increase by 12,600 (+8% about 2,500 per annum) and under the low growth forecast (1.5%) the market is estimated to increase by 9,200 (+6%, about 1,800 per annum).
4.2.4 Over the next ten years between 2010 and 2020 under the high growth forecast (2.5%) the potential accommodation with care market 11 is estimated to increase by 34,300 (+21%, about 3,400 per annum), under the medium growth forecast (2.0%) the market is estimated to increase by 26,600 (+17%, about 2,700 per annum) and under the low growth forecast (1.5%) the market is estimated to increase by 19,400 (+12%, about 1,900 per annum).
10 Demand comes for 65+ population and people aged 18/20-64 with moderate or serious learning or physical disabilities. 11 Demand comes for 65+ population and people aged 18/20-64 with moderate or serious learning or physical disabilities. 20 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
Forecast Growth of Accommodation with Care Market in North Yorkshire to 2030 with different annual growth rates for 65+ 2010-2015 2010-2020
Change % Annual Change % Annual
1.50% 9,240 5.8% 1,848 19,416 12.1% 1,942
2.00% 12,554 7.8% 2,511 26,636 16.5% 2,664
2.50% 15,996 9.8% 3,199 34,314 21.1% 3,431
POPPI (2.43%) 20,836 12.8% 4,167 36,097 22.1% 3,610
4.3 Care Needs of Forecast 65+ Population (2010-2020)
4.3.1 As well as the growth in the potential total market for accommodation with care it is worth considering the future care needs of the 65+ population in terms of the number of people with a long term limiting illness, the numbers who will need help to live independently, the numbers predicted to have dementia and the numbers estimated to require accommodation with care support from the Council with Social Service Responsibilities (CSSR), in this case North Yorkshire County Council. Prevalence rates and proportions are taken from the POPPI dataset and forecasts.
4.3.2 65+ with a long term limiting illness 12 . From an estimated 51,500 in 2010 the number of people aged 65+ with a long term limiting illness under the medium growth scenario (+2.0%) is expected to increase by 11,600 (+23%, about 1,200 per annum) to reach 63,100 by 2020.
4.3.3 65+ needing help to live independently 13 . From an estimated 16,000 in 2010 the number of people aged 65+ who will need help to live independently under the medium growth scenario (+2.0%) is expected to increase by 3,500 (+22%, about 350 per annum) to reach 19,500 by 2020.
4.3.4 65+ predicted to have dementia 14 . From an estimated 8,500 in 2010 the number of people aged 65+ expected to contract dementia under the medium growth scenario (+2.0%) is expected to increase by 2,300 (+27%, about 230 per annum) to reach 10,800 by 2020.
4.3.5 65+ living a LA or non-LA care homes with or without nursing care 15 . From an estimated 5,300 in 2010 the number of 65+ people living in a Local Authority or non Local Authority care homes with or without nursing care under the medium growth scenario (+2.0%) is expected to increase by 1,600 (+29%, about 160 per annum) to reach 6,900 by 2020. Between 2010 and 2020 under the high growth scenario the numbers are estimated to increase by about 1,900 (190/annum) and under the low growth scenario the numbers are estimated to increase by about 1,200 (120/annum).
12 From 42.8% in 2010 the proportion of people aged 65+ with a long term limiting illness is forecast by POPPI to increase to 43.8% by 2030. 13 The proportion of people aged 65+ needing help to live independently is forecast by POPPI to be 13.3% for all years to 2030. 14 From 7.1% in 2010 the proportion of people aged 65+ with dementia is forecast by POPPI to increase to 8.3% by 2030. 15 From 4.4% in 2010 the proportion of people aged 65+ living a LA or non-LA care home with or without nursing care is forecast by POPPI to increase to 5.5% by 2030. 21 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
4.3.6 CSSR (North Yorkshire CC) supported residents aged 65+ living in accommodation with care 16 . From an estimated 3,500 in 2010 the number of 65+ people requiring residential or nursing care provided by the CSSR under the medium growth scenario (+2.0%) is expected to increase by 765 (+22%, about 80 per annum), to reach 4,300 by 2020. Between 2010 and 2020 under the high growth scenario the numbers are estimated to increase by about 1,000 (100/annum) and under the low growth scenario the numbers are estimated to increase by about 600 (60/annum).
Scenarios: Forecast Growth of 65+ with Long Term Limiting Illness in North Yorkshire 2010 to 2030 with different annual growth rates. 100,000
90,000 87,125
80,000 76,992 70,221 66,918 70,000 65,173 59,491 58,604
60,000 54,717
51,963 1.50% 50,954 50,000 2.00% 40,000 2.50% 30,000 POPPI (2.43%) 20,000 10,000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: ONS Mid Year Population Estimates for 2008. POPPI and PANSI. Innovacion analysis.
16 The proportion of people aged 65+ living in accommodation with care provided by the CSSR is forecast by POPPI to be 2.9% all years to 2030 22 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
Scenarios: Forecast Growth of 65+ needing help to live independently in North Yorkshire 2010 to 2030 with different annual growth rates. 30,000 26,469
25,000 23,395 21,334 20,677 19,803 18,382 20,000 18,276 17,064 16,153 15,840 1.50% 15,000 2.00% 2.50% 10,000 POPPI (2.43%)
5,000
0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: ONS Mid Year Population Estimates for 2008. POPPI and PANSI. Innovacion analysis.
Scenarios: Forecast Growth of 65+ people predicted to have dementia in North Yorkshire 2010 to 2030 with different annual growth rates. 18,000
16,000 16,548 13,877 14,000 13,338 11,747 12,000 11,473 10,200
9,541 1.50%
10,000 8,908 8,627 8,460 2.00% 8,000 2.50% 6,000 POPPI (2.43%) 4,000 2,000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: ONS Mid Year Population Estimates for 2008. POPPI and PANSI. Innovacion analysis.
23 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
Scenarios: Forecast Growth of in 65+ in Local Authority or non-Local Authority care homes with or without nursing care in North Yorkshire 2010 to 2030 with different annual growth rates. 12,000 11,013
10,000 9,180 8,877 7,771
8,000 7,332
6,518 1.50% 6,098 5,694 5,399 6,000 5,294 2.00% 2.50% 4,000 POPPI (2.43%)
2,000
0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: ONS Mid Year Population Estimates for 2008. POPPI and PANSI. Innovacion analysis.
Scenarios: Forecast Growth of 65+ people predicted to have dementia in North Yorkshire 2010 to 2030 with different annual growth rates. 18,000
16,000 16,548 13,877 14,000 13,338 11,747 12,000 11,473 10,200
9,541 1.50%
10,000 8,908 8,627 8,460 2.00% 8,000 2.50% 6,000 POPPI (2.43%) 4,000 2,000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: ONS Mid Year Population Estimates for 2008. POPPI and PANSI. Innovacion analysis.
24 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
4.4 Estimated Future Demand for Accommodation with Care for People Aged 65+ in North Yorkshire
4.4.1 An estimate of the potential future demand for accommodation with care can be made by considering the additional annual new demand from the growing number of people aged 65+ alone in North Yorkshire 17 who will live in publicly supported or privately provided accommodation with care against the capacity of a standardised Extra Care Home. An Extra Care Home is assumed to have 40 two bed units with an occupancy mix of 60% of the units having one resident and 40% of the units having two residents (capacity for 56 people) and a 90% occupancy level (giving a multiplier of 1.26). To this is added the likely replacement demand from North Yorkshire County Council’s plans for service transformation by closing eight of their Elderly People’s Homes (EPHs) between 2010 and 201618 . In these calculations an EPH is assumed to be have a similar capacity to an ECH give a 1:1 replacement ratio.
4.4.2 This suggests that under the more conservative medium population growth scenario for 65+ population (+2.0%) 27 additional extra care homes would be required from public and provide sector provision between 2010 and 2016, rising to 31 additional extra care homes under the high growth scenario which is broadly similar to the POPPI forecasts. Taking a longer term view to 2020 39 additional extra care homes would be required under the medium growth forecast and 46 extra care homes under the high growth scenario.
Growth Scenarios for 65+ Population 2010-2020 1.50% 2.00% 2.50%
Estimated annual increase in 65+ living in a LA or non-LA care 122 157 193 home with or without nursing care (2010-2020)
Additional extra care homes per annum (40 units/home x 1.26 2.4 3.1 3.8 people per unit)
New demand : extra care homes 2010-2016 14.6 18.7 23.0
Replacement demand from service transformation: closure of 8 8 8 North Yorks EPH 2010-2016
Total potential extra care home demand 2010-2016 22.6 26.7 31.0
New demand : extra care homes 2010-2020 24.3 31.1 38.4
Replacement demand from service transformation: closure of 8 8 8 North Yorks EPH 2010-2020
Total potential extra care home demand 2010-2020 32.3 39.1 46.4
17 There may be some additional new care home demand from 18-64 year olds with learning and physical disabilities but growth in these groups together is expected to be just 350 over 20 years. 18 Subsequently North Yorkshire County Council recently confirmed that their plans (at 31 August 2010) were to close 9 EPHs by 2012/2013 so this slightly under-estimates replacement demand. 25 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
4.4.3 In terms of public sector supported provision, an estimate of the potential future accommodation with care can be made by considering the additional annual new demand from the growing number of people aged 65+ in North Yorkshire who are likely to require accommodation with care support provided by the CSSR. To this is added the likely replacement demand from North Yorkshire County Council’s plans for service transformation by closing eight of their Elderly People’s Homes (EPHs) between 2010 and 2016.
4.4.4 This suggests that under the more conservative medium population growth scenario for 65+ population (+2.0%) 17 additional extra care homes would be required from public sector provision between 2010 and 2016, rising to 20 additional extra care homes under the high growth scenario which is broadly similar to the POPPI forecasts. Taking a longer term view to 2020 23 additional extra care homes would be required under the medium growth forecast and 28 extra care homes under the high growth scenario.
Growth Scenarios for 65+ Population for 2010-2020 1.50% 2.00% 2.50%
Estimated annual increase in 65+ having residential or nursing care 55 76 99 provided or purchased by the CSSR (2010-2020)
Additional extra care homes per annum (40 units/home x 1.26 1.1 1.5 2.0 people per unit)
New demand : extra care homes 2010-2016 6.6 9.1 11.7
Replacement demand from service transformation: closure of 8 8 8 North Yorks EPH 2010-2016
Total potential extra care home demand 2010-2016 14.6 17.1 19.7
New demand : extra care homes 2010-2020 11.0 15.2 19.6
Replacement demand from service transformation: closure of 8 8 8 North Yorks EPH 2010-2020
Total potential extra care home demand 2010-2020 19.0 23.2 27.6
26 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
4.5 Assumptions
4.5.1 There are a number of reasons why many of these assumptions may be conservative and actual gross demand in the future could be higher:
(a) The growth forecast for the 65+ group of 2% is deliberately conservative and lower than the generally accepted DoH/IPC POPPI forecasts (2.43% per annum).
(b) These estimates represent total potential demand for accommodation with care converted into ECHs but the actual demand for ECH and take up levels would be affected by a range of other personal, market and policy factors. These include personal choices about alternative options, an individual’s care needs, the availability of carers, the costs of different options as well as an individual’s ability to fully or partially self fund their care needs. There are also market and policy issues in terms of the overall supply and demand for all types of accommodation with care and other care services (e.g. day care and domiciliary care) in the short and longer term and the levels of care services for the 65+ population that the public sector is able to provide in the future. Additionally current occupancy levels and void space across the public and private sectors would need to be assessed.
(c) The current and future split in provision between public sector funded support and the private sector is taken from POPPI. The POPPI approach factors future population projections onto two different datasets to calculate these figures: the 2001 Census return for the number of people in a LA or non-LA care home is used to estimate the number of people aged 65+ living in any type of care home in North Yorkshire; and the National Adult Social Care Intelligence Service (NASCIS) Referrals, Assessments and Packages of Care (RAP) data from 2008/9 is used to estimate the level of care purchased or provided by the CSSR (North Yorkshire CC).
(d) The assumed capacity of an Extra Care Home (40 two bed units) is a sensible estimate but may vary by services provided, in specific developments and the needs of different client groups.
(e) Replacement demand has been based on the assumption that 8 of North Yorkshire County Council’s EPHs will close by 2016 and it was recently confirmed that North Yorkshire County Council’s plans are to close 9 EPHs by 2012/13. However, up to 14 EPHs in total may close in the longer term suggesting potentially higher replacement demand. An EPH is assumed to have a similar capacity to an ECH in the calculations.
(f) These are estimates of the future demand from 2010 onwards. They could exclude current unmet demand and the increase in demand from population change from 2008-2010. The latter could add 6-8 additional care homes to the 2016 medium and low growth forecasts for public and private provision and 3-4 care homes to the 2016 medium and low growth forecasts for CSSR provision.
(g) Declines in other population age bands may result in fewer unpaid carers and therefore increased demand for care. For example, the numbers of 35 to 54 year olds in North Yorkshire is forecast to fall by 10,200 between 2010 and 2020.
(h) The various prevalence rates and proportions are taken from POPPI and PANSI and may vary in North Yorkshire and across its districts.
27 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
(i) There may be some additional demand for accommodation with care from 18-64 year olds with learning and physical disabilities but growth in these groups together is expected to be just 350 over 20 years.
(j) Another potential source of future demand that is difficult to quantify is those self funding residents in private sector accommodation with care who may run into financial difficulties in the future and turn to North Yorkshire County Council for support. There is anecdotal evidence of that these numbers have been increasing recently. Calculating the exact numbers of self funders is problematic as some residents in private care will be in receipt of support from North Yorkshire CC (’top-up’) and some residents of ECHs will be fully or partially self funding. While North Yorkshire CC has estimated that there are 2,550 self funders in the County any business case should collect establishment level data and North Yorkshire service delivery data as well as draw in national research to investigate the levels of self funding activity.
(k) While the proposed capital programme runs to 2016 there would also be substantial demand in the period from 2020 to 2030 at least at the same levels as between 2010 and 2020. So for example between 2010 and 2030 and assuming the closure of all 14 EPHs under the medium term growth forecast (2.0%) the care home demand for the CSSR alone would be 48 care homes. Under the high growth scenario it would be equivalent to 59 additional CSSR provided care homes by 2030.
4.6 Key Points
Most gross additional demand for accommodation with care in the future will come from the increase in the number of people aged 65+, especially those aged 85+. Under the medium growth scenario the 65+ population is expected to grow by 2,700 people each year to 2020 and under the high growth scenario the annual increase would 3,400.
Under the medium growth scenario by 2020 there would be an additional 11,000 65+ year olds with a long term limiting illness, an additional 3,500 needing help to live independently and an additional 2,300 people with dementia.
The new demand from people aged 65+ for accommodation with care (public and private provision) by 2020 is projected to be 1,600 people (medium growth) and 1,900 (high growth). Adding replacement demand from the closure of 8 EPHs, this suggests that between 2010 and 2016 27 ECHs could be required in the medium growth scenario and 31 in the high growth scenario at rates of 4/year and 5/year. However the population trend growth means that over the slightly longer period between 2010 and 2020 39 ECHs could be required in the medium growth scenario and 46 in the high growth scenario.
The new demand from people aged 65+ for publicly supported accommodation with care (CSSR) by 2020 is projected to be 765 people (medium growth) and 1,000 (high growth). Adding replacement demand from the closure of 8 EPHs, this suggests that between 2010 and 2016 17 ECHs could be required in the medium growth scenario and 21 in the high growth scenario at rates of 2.5/year and 3/year. However the population trend growth means that over the slightly longer period between 2010 and 2020 23 ECHs could be required in the medium growth scenario and 28 in the high growth scenario.
28 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
5 District Level Demand Estimates
5.1.1 To consider more local demand for accommodation with care this section replicates the analysis completed at the county level for each of the seven districts to review the quantum of local provision proposed by North Yorkshire CC in their PDR. The demographic growth scenarios are likely to result in increased levels of demand for accommodation with care and these are converted into potential demand for additional Extra Care Home (ECH) provision across the private and the public sectors (CSSR supported provision) in each district. District level data are provided in the appendix.
5.2 Craven District
5.2.1 Between 2010 and 2020 the 65+ population in the district is expected to grow by 2,800 under the medium growth scenario (2%) from 12,700 to 15,500 (+22%) and by 3,600 (+28%) under the high growth scenario (+2.5%) which broadly aligns with the POPPI forecast.
5.2.2 Adding the small increases in demand in the district from 18 to 64 year olds with moderate or severe learning disabilities (+3) and moderate of serious physical disabilities (+140) the total potential gross new demand for accommodation with care by 2020 could be 2,200 (low growth), 2,900 (medium growth) and 3,700 (high growth)
5.2.3 Between 2010 and 2020 there is an estimated increase of 1,200 (+23%) in the number of people aged 65+ in the district with a long term limiting illness , rising to 1,600 (+29%) under the high growth scenario.
5.2.4 Between 2010 and 2020 there is an estimated increase of 240 (+27%) in the number of people aged 65+ in the district who will have dementia , rising to 300 (+33%) under the high growth scenario.
5.2.5 These demographic trends under a medium growth scenario could result in demand for an extra 2 extra care homes 19 in the district between 2010 and 2016, 3.3 extra care homes between 2010 and 2020 and 6.6 extra care homes over the 20 year period between 2010 and 2030. Under the high growth scenario, which broadly aligns with the POPPI dataset, the demand could be for 2.4, 4.0 and 8.1 extra care homes respectively over the same time periods. This excludes any replacement demand from the closure of existing EPHs, assumed to be 8 over the entire County.
5.2.6 These demographic trends under a medium growth scenario could result in demand for an extra 1 CSSR provided or purchased extra care homes 20 in the district between 2010 and 2016, 1.6 CSSR extra care homes between 2010 and 2020 and 3.2 CSSR extra care homes over the 20 year period between 2010 and 2030. Under the high growth scenario which broadly aligns with the POPPI dataset the demand could be for 1.2, 2.1 and 4.1 CSSR extra care homes respectively over similar time periods. This excludes any replacement demand from the closure of existing EPHs, assumed to 8 over the entire County.
5.2.7 Currently North Yorkshire is considering 5 locations for ECHs in the district for the period 2010 to 2016 and, assuming replacement demand from the closure of 1 EPH 21 in the district, this
19 Total local authority or non-local authority provided accommodation with or without nursing care. 20 Supported residents in accommodation with care provided or purchased by the CSSR. 21 This is a slight under-estimate as North Yorkshire County Council currently plan to close 9 EPHs by 2012/13. 29 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
number of ECHs would be in line with the estimated total market demand between 2010 and 2020 under both the medium growth scenario (4.3) and high growth scenario (5.0) including one ECH for EPH replacement demand.
5.3 Hambleton District
5.3.1 Between 2010 and 2020 the 65+ population in the district is expected to grow by 4,000 under the medium growth scenario (2%) from 18,100 to 22,100 (+22%) and by 5,100 (+28%) under the high growth scenario (+2.5%) which broadly aligns with the POPPI forecast.
5.3.2 Subtracting the small decreases in demand in the district from 18 to 64 year olds with moderate or severe learning disabilities (-7) and moderate of serious physical disabilities (-90) the total potential gross new demand for accommodation with care by 2020 could be 2,800 (low growth), 3,900 (medium growth) and 5,000 (high growth)
5.3.3 Between 2010 and 2020 there is an estimated increase of 1,800 (+23%) in the number of people aged 65+ in the district with a long term limiting illness , rising to 2,300 (+29%) under the high growth scenario.
5.3.4 Between 2010 and 2020 there is an estimated increase of 340 (+27%) in the number of people aged 65+ in the district who will have dementia , rising to 430 (+33%) under the high growth scenario.
5.3.5 These demographic trends under a medium growth scenario could result in demand for an extra 2.8 care homes 22 in the district between 2010 and 2016, 4.7 extra care homes between 2010 and 2020 and 9.4 extra care homes over the 20 year period between 2010 and 2030. Under the high growth scenario, which broadly aligns with the POPPI dataset, the demand could be for 3.5, 5.8 and 11.5 extra care homes respectively over the same time periods. This excludes any replacement demand from the closure of existing EPHs, assumed to be 8 over the entire County.
5.3.6 These demographic trends under a medium growth scenario could result in demand for an extra 1.4 CSSR provided or purchased extra care homes 23 in the district between 2010 and 2016, 2.3 CSSR extra care homes between 2010 and 2020 and 4.6 CSSR extra care homes over the 20 year period between 2010 and 2030. Under the high growth scenario which broadly aligns with the POPPI dataset the demand could be for 1.8, 2.9 and 5.9 CSSR extra care homes respectively over similar time periods. This excludes any replacement demand from the closure of existing EPHs, assumed to be 8 over the entire County.
5.3.7 Currently North Yorkshire is considering 5 locations for ECHs in the district for the period 2010 to 2016 and, assuming replacement demand from the closure of 1 EPH 24 in the district, this number of ECHs would be below the estimated total market demand between 2010 and 2020 under both the medium growth scenario (5.7) and high growth scenario (6.8) including 1 ECH as replacement demand.
5.4 Harrogate District
22 Total local authority or non-local authority provided accommodation with or without nursing care. 23 Supported residents in accommodation with care provided or purchased by the CSSR. 24 This is a slight under-estimate as North Yorkshire County Council currently plan to close 9 EPHs by 2012/13. 30 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
5.4.1 Between 2010 and 2020 the 65+ population in the district is expected to grow by 6,700 under the medium growth scenario (2%) from 30,600 to 37,300 (+22%) and by 8,700 (+28%) under the high growth scenario (+2.5%) which broadly aligns with the POPPI forecast.
5.4.2 Adding the small increases in demand in the district from 18 to 64 year olds with moderate or severe learning disabilities (+20) and moderate of serious physical disabilities (+560) the total potential gross new demand for accommodation with care by 2020 could be 5,400 (low growth), 7,300 (medium growth) and 9,200 (high growth)
5.4.3 Between 2010 and 2020 there is an estimated increase of 3,000 (+23%) in the number of people aged 65+ in the district with a long term limiting illness , rising to 3,800 (+29%) under the high growth scenario.
5.4.4 Between 2010 and 2020 there is an estimated increase of 580 (+27%) in the number of people aged 65+ in the district who will have dementia , rising to 720 (+33%) under the high growth scenario.
5.4.5 These demographic trends under a medium growth scenario could result in demand for an extra 4.7 extra care homes 25 in the district between 2010 and 2016, 7.9 extra care homes between 2010 and 2020 and 15.8 extra care homes over the 20 year period between 2010 and 2030. Under the high growth scenario, which broadly aligns with the POPPI dataset, the demand could be for 5.9, 9.8 and 19.5 extra care homes respectively over the same time periods. This excludes any replacement demand from the closure of existing EPHs, assumed to be 8 over the entire County.
5.4.6 These demographic trends under a medium growth scenario could result in demand for an extra 2.3 CSSR provided or purchased extra care homes 26 in the district between 2010 and 2016, 3.9 CSSR extra care homes between 2010 and 2020 and 7.7 CSSR extra care homes over the 20 year period between 2010 and 2030. Under the high growth scenario which broadly aligns with the POPPI dataset the demand could be for 3, 5 and 10 CSSR extra care homes respectively over similar time periods. This excludes any replacement demand from the closure of existing EPHs, assumed to be 8 over the entire County.
5.4.7 Currently North Yorkshire is considering 6 locations for ECHs in the district for the period 2010 to 2016 and, assuming replacement demand from the closure of 1 EPH 27 in the district, this number of ECHs would be below the estimated total market demand between 2010 and 2020 under both the medium growth scenario (8.9) and high growth scenario (10.8) including 1 ECH as replacement demand.
25 Total local authority or non-local authority provided accommodation with or without nursing care. 26 Supported residents in accommodation with care provided or purchased by the CSSR. 27 This is a slight under-estimate as North Yorkshire County Council currently plan to close 9 EPHs by 2012/13. 31 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
5.5 Richmondshire District
5.5.1 Between 2010 and 2020 the 65+ population in the district is expected to grow by 1,900 under the medium growth scenario (2%) from 8,700 to 10,700 (+22%) and by 2,500 (+28%) under the high growth scenario (+2.5%) which broadly aligns with the POPPI forecast.
5.5.2 Adding the small increases in demand in the district from 18 to 64 year olds with moderate or severe learning disabilities (+10) and moderate of serious physical disabilities (+180) the total potential gross new demand for accommodation with care by 2020 could be 1,600 (low growth), 2,100 (medium growth) and 2,700 (high growth)
5.5.3 Between 2010 and 2020 there is an estimated increase of 850 (+23%) in the number of people aged 65+ in the district with a long term limiting illness , rising to 1,100 (+29%) under the high growth scenario.
5.5.4 Between 2010 and 2020 there is an estimated increase of 170 (+27%) in the number of people aged 65+ in the district who will have dementia , rising to 210 (+33%) under the high growth scenario.
5.5.5 These demographic trends under a medium growth scenario could result in demand for an extra 1.4 extra care homes 28 in the district between 2010 and 2016, 2.3 extra care homes between 2010 and 2020 and 4.5 extra care homes over the 20 year period between 2010 and 2030. Under the high growth scenario, which broadly aligns with the POPPI dataset, the demand could be for 1.7, 2.8 and 5.6 extra care homes respectively over the same time periods. This excludes any replacement demand from the closure of existing EPHs, assumed to be 8 over the entire County.
5.5.6 These demographic trends under a medium growth scenario could result in demand for an extra 0.7 CSSR provided or purchased extra care homes 29 in the district between 2010 and 2016, 1.1 CSSR extra care homes between 2010 and 2020 and 2.2 CSSR extra care homes over the 20 year period between 2010 and 2030. Under the high growth scenario which broadly aligns with the POPPI dataset the demand could be for 0.9, 1.4 and 2.8 CSSR extra care homes respectively over similar time periods. This excludes any replacement demand from the closure of existing EPHs, assumed to be 8 over the entire County.
5.5.7 Currently North Yorkshire is considering 3 locations for ECHs in the district for the period 2010 to 2016 and, assuming replacement demand from the closure of 1 EPH 30 in the district, this number of ECHs would be below the estimated total market demand between 2010 and 2020 under both the medium growth scenario (3.3) and high growth scenario (3.8) including 1 ECH as replacement demand.
28 Total local authority or non-local authority provided accommodation with or without nursing care. 29 Supported residents in accommodation with care provided or purchased by the CSSR. 30 This is a slight under-estimate as North Yorkshire County Council currently plan to close 9 EPHs by 2012/13. 32 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
5.6 Ryedale District
5.6.1 Between 2010 and 2020 the 65+ population in the district is expected to grow by 2,600 under the medium growth scenario (2%) from 11,900 to 14,500 (+22%) and by 3,400 (+28%) under the high growth scenario (+2.5%) which broadly aligns with the POPPI forecast.
5.6.2 Adding the small increases in demand in the district from 18 to 64 year olds with moderate or severe learning disabilities (+4) and moderate of serious physical disabilities (+105) the total potential gross new demand for accommodation with care by 2020 could be 2,000 (low growth), 2,700 (medium growth) and 3,500 (high growth)
5.6.3 Between 2010 and 2020 there is an estimated increase of 1,100 (+23%) in the number of people aged 65+ in the district with a long term limiting illness , rising to 1,500 (+29%) under the high growth scenario.
5.6.4 Between 2010 and 2020 there is an estimated increase of 220 (+27%) in the number of people aged 65+ in the district who will have dementia , rising to 280 (+33%) under the high growth scenario.
5.6.5 These demographic trends under a medium growth scenario could result in demand for an extra 1.8 extra care homes 31 in the district between 2010 and 2016, 3.1 extra care homes between 2010 and 2020 and 6.1 extra care homes over the 20 year period between 2010 and 2030. Under the high growth scenario, which broadly aligns with the POPPI dataset, the demand could be for 2.3, 3.8 and 7.6 extra care homes respectively over the same time periods. This excludes any replacement demand from the closure of existing EPHs, assumed to be 8 over the entire County.
5.6.6 These demographic trends under a medium growth scenario could result in demand for an extra 0.9 CSSR provided or purchased extra care homes 32 in the district between 2010 and 2016, 1.5 CSSR extra care homes between 2010 and 2020 and 3.0 CSSR extra care homes over the 20 year period between 2010 and 2030. Under the high growth scenario which broadly aligns with the POPPI dataset the demand could be for 1.2, 1.9 and 3.9 CSSR extra care homes respectively over similar time periods. This excludes any replacement demand from the closure of existing EPHs, assumed to be 8 over the entire County.
5.6.7 Currently North Yorkshire is considering 4 locations for ECHs in the district for the period 2010 to 2016 and, assuming replacement demand from the closure of 1 EPH 33 in the district, this number of ECHs would be in line with the estimated total market demand between 2010 and 2020 under both the medium growth scenario (4.1) and high growth scenario (4.8) including 1 ECH as replacement demand.
31 Total local authority or non-local authority provided accommodation with or without nursing care. 32 Supported residents in accommodation with care provided or purchased by the CSSR. 33 This is a slight under-estimate as North Yorkshire County Council currently plan to close 9 EPHs by 2012/13. 33 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
5.7 Scarborough District
5.7.1 Between 2010 and 2020 the 65+ population in the district is expected to grow by 5,500 under the medium growth scenario (2%) from 25,200 to 30,700 (+22%) and by 7,100 (+28%) under the high growth scenario (+2.5%) which broadly aligns with the POPPI forecast.
5.7.2 Subtracting the small decreases in demand in the district from 18 to 64 year olds with moderate or severe learning disabilities (0) and moderate of serious physical disabilities (-47) the total potential gross new demand for accommodation with care by 2020 could be 4,000 (low growth), 5,500 (medium growth) and 7,100 (high growth)
5.7.3 Between 2010 and 2020 there is an estimated increase of 2,400 (+23%) in the number of people aged 65+ in the district with a long term limiting illness , rising to 3,100 (+29%) under the high growth scenario.
5.7.4 Between 2010 and 2020 there is an estimated increase of 480 (+27%) in the number of people aged 65+ in the district who will have dementia , rising to 600 (+33%) under the high growth scenario.
5.7.5 These demographic trends under a medium growth scenario could result in demand for an extra 3.9 extra care homes 34 in the district between 2010 and 2016, 6.5 extra care homes between 2010 and 2020 and 13.0 extra care homes over the 20 year period between 2010 and 2030. Under the high growth scenario, which broadly aligns with the POPPI dataset, the demand could be for 4.8, 8.0 and 16.1 extra care homes respectively over the same time periods. This excludes any replacement demand from the closure of existing EPHs, assumed to be 8 over the entire County
5.7.6 These demographic trends under a medium growth scenario could result in demand for an extra 1.9 CSSR provided or purchased extra care homes 35 in the district between 2010 and 2016, 3.2 CSSR extra care homes between 2010 and 2020 and 6.3 CSSR extra care homes over the 20 year period between 2010 and 2030. Under the high growth scenario which broadly aligns with the POPPI dataset the demand could be for 2.5, 4.1 and 8.2 CSSR extra care homes respectively over similar time periods. This excludes any replacement demand from the closure of existing EPHs, assumed to be 8 over the entire County.
5.7.7 Currently North Yorkshire is considering 3 locations for ECHs in the district for the period 2010 to 2016 and, assuming replacement demand from the closure of 1 EPH 36 in the district, this number of ECHs would be substantially below the estimated total market demand between 2010 and 2020 under both the medium growth scenario (7.5) and high growth scenario (9.0) including 1 ECH as replacement demand.
34 Total local authority or non-local authority provided accommodation with or without nursing care. 35 Supported residents in accommodation with care provided or purchased by the CSSR. 36 This is a slight under-estimate as North Yorkshire County Council currently plan to close 9 EPHs by 2012/13. 34 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
5.8 Selby District
5.8.1 Between 2010 and 2020 the 65+ population in the district is expected to grow by 2,900 under the medium growth scenario (2%) from 13,400 to 16,400 (+22%) and by 3,800 (+28%) under the high growth scenario (+2.5%) which broadly aligns with the POPPI forecast.
5.8.2 Adding the increases in demand in the district from 18 to 64 year olds with moderate or severe learning disabilities (+19) and moderate of serious physical disabilities (+430) the total potential gross new demand for accommodation with care by 2020 could be 2,600 (low growth), 3,400 (medium growth) and 4,200 (high growth)
5.8.3 Between 2010 and 2020 there is an estimated increase of 1,300 (+23%) in the number of people aged 65+ in the district with a long term limiting illness , rising to 1,700 (+29%) under the high growth scenario.
5.8.4 Between 2010 and 2020 there is an estimated increase of 250 (+27%) in the number of people aged 65+ in the district who will have dementia , rising to 320 (+33%) under the high growth scenario.
5.8.5 These demographic trends under a medium growth scenario could result in demand for an extra 2.1 extra care homes 37 in the district between 2010 and 2016, 3.5 extra care homes between 2010 and 2020 and 6.9 extra care homes over the 20 year period between 2010 and 2030. Under the high growth scenario, which broadly aligns with the POPPI dataset, the demand could be for 2.6, 4.3 and 8.6 extra care homes respectively over the same time periods. This excludes any replacement demand from the closure of existing EPHs, assumed to be 8 over the entire County.
5.8.6 These demographic trends under a medium growth scenario could result in demand for an extra 1.0 CSSR provided or purchased extra care homes 38 in the district between 2010 and 2016, 1.7 CSSR extra care homes between 2010 and 2020 and 3.4 CSSR extra care homes over the 20 year period between 2010 and 2030. Under the high growth scenario which broadly aligns with the POPPI dataset the demand could be for 1.3, 2.2 and 4.4 CSSR extra care homes respectively over similar time periods. This excludes any replacement demand from the closure of existing EPHs, assumed to be 8 over the entire County.
5.8.7 Currently North Yorkshire is considering 5 locations for ECHs in the district for the period 2010 to 2016 and, assuming replacement demand from the closure of 1 EPH 39 in the district, this number of ECHs would be broadly in line with the estimated total market demand between 2010 and 2020 under both the medium growth scenario (4.5) and high growth scenario (5.3) including 1 ECH as replacement demand.
37 Total local authority or non-local authority provided accommodation with or without nursing care. 38 Supported residents in accommodation with care provided or purchased by the CSSR. 39 This is a slight under-estimate as North Yorkshire County Council currently plan to close 9 EPHs by 2012/13. 35 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
5.9 Key Points
Under the medium growth scenario (2%) proposed Extra Care Housing provision under North Yorkshire CC’s Programme Delivery Register (PDR) is in line with projected total market demand for gross additional accommodation with care (public and private provision) in Craven, Richmondshire, Ryedale and Selby.
Under the medium growth scenario (2%) proposed Extra Care Housing provision under North Yorkshire CC’s Programme Delivery Register (PDR) is slightly below total market demand for gross additional accommodation with care (public and private provision) in Hambleton, about one third below total market demand in Harrogate and more than 50% below total market demand in Scarborough.
36 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
Living in a Care Home: Estimated annual increase in 65+ living in a LA or non-LA care home with or without nursing care (2010-2030) Craven Hambleton Harrogate Richmondshire Growth Scenarios for 65+ Population 2010- 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2030 New demand: extra care homes 2010-2016 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.8 3.5 3.7 4.7 5.9 1.1 1.4 1.7 New demand: extra care homes 2010-2020 2.6 3.3 4.0 3.7 4.7 5.8 6.2 7.9 9.8 1.8 2.3 2.8 New demand: extra care homes 2010-2030 5.1 6.6 8.1 7.3 9.4 11.5 12.4 15.8 19.5 3.5 4.5 5.6 Ryedale Scarborough Selby Total 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% New demand: extra care homes 2010-2016 1.4 1.8 2.3 3.1 3.9 4.8 1.6 2.1 2.6 14.6 18.7 23.1 New demand: extra care homes 2010-2020 2.4 3.1 3.8 5.1 6.5 8.0 2.7 3.5 4.3 24.4 31.2 38.5 New demand: extra care homes 2010-2030 4.8 6.1 7.6 10.2 13.0 16.1 5.4 6.9 8.6 48.7 62.4 76.9
Supported residents: Estimated annual increase in 65+ in accommodation with care provided or purchased by the CSSR (2010-2030) Craven Hambleton Harrogate Richmondshire Growth Scenarios for 65+ Population 2010- 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2030 New demand: extra care homes 2010-2016 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.7 2.3 3.0 0.5 0.7 0.9 New demand: extra care homes 2010-2020 1.2 1.6 2.1 1.7 2.3 2.9 2.8 3.9 5.0 0.8 1.1 1.4 New demand: extra care homes 2010-2030 2.3 3.2 4.1 3.3 4.6 5.9 5.6 7.7 10.0 1.6 2.2 2.8 Ryedale Scarborough Selby Total 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% New demand: extra care homes 2010-2016 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 6.6 9.1 11.8 New demand: extra care homes 2010-2020 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.3 3.2 4.1 1.2 1.7 2.2 11.0 15.2 19.6 New demand: extra care homes 2010-2030 2.2 3.0 3.9 4.6 6.3 8.2 2.5 3.4 4.4 22.1 30.4 39.2
37 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
6 Supply Side – The Accommodation with Care Sector in North Yorkshire
6.1.1 The section considers the scale of the care sector in North Yorkshire from official statistics and considers the potential economic and other impacts of a programme to develop an additional 31 Extra Care Housing schemes across North Yorkshire.
6.2 Size of the Accommodation with Care Sector
6.2.1 In 2008 the accommodation with care sector (residential care) provided 8,400 jobs in North Yorkshire across 335 establishments at an average size of about 25 employees per organisation 40 . Between 2007 and 2008 the sector grew to add 200 jobs (+2.4%).
6.2.2 North Yorkshire County Council 41 calculates that there are 276 residential care organisations in North Yorkshire providing 7,760 bed spaces. Employment in the Residential Care Sector in North Yorkshire 2008.
3,000
2,500 2,630 2,000 2,274 1,897 1,500 1,582 1,000
500
0 Residential Residential care Residential care Other residential nursing care activities for activities for the care activities activities learning elderly and disabilities, mental disabled health and substance abuse
Source: Annual Business Inquiry/NOMIS.
6.3 Potential Impacts of the Extra Care Housing Programme
6.3.1 A programme to develop 31 Extra Care Homes could result in an additional 775 residential care jobs across the County which would be worth £11 million 42 if delivered through other regional economic development programmes. There would also be additional multiplier effects across local supply chains and retail sectors.
6.3.2 Construction of 31 Extra Care Homes (ECHs) would result in significant construction employment benefits. Assuming a capital expenditure of £7 million per ECH the programme of 31 schemes would have an approximate capital value of £217 million. Using generally accepted assumptions this could result in an additional 296 construction jobs (full time equivalents). Organisations in the Residential Care Sector in North Yorkshire 2008.
40 ONS Annual Business Inquiry 41 North Yorkshire CC – Care and Support in North Yorkshire: Shaping the Market, Volume 3 (data from CQC July 2009) 42 Using the cost per net job figure for RDA business support activity of £14,221 (Source: BERR – Impact of RDA National Spending Report – March 2009). 38 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
160 136 140 117 120 100 80 60 52 40 30 20 0 Residential nursing Residential care Residential care Other residential care activities activities for activities for the care activities learning elderly and disabilities, mental disabled health and substance abuse
Source: Annual Business Inquiry/NOMIS.
6.3.3 There can be significant additional placemaking and regenerative impacts when an ECH scheme brings a range of community services back to a locality (e.g. the ECH scheme in Bainbridge resulted in the local provision of a library, post office and community cinema).
6.3.4 An ECH can also offer the opportunity for onsite employment in retail and service delivery, often using the social enterprise model.
6.4 Key Points
The growing care sector in North Yorkshire provided 8,400 jobs across 335 establishments in 2008. An additional 31 ECHs would provide 775 gross new jobs, perhaps worth £11 million in estimated benefits, as well as 296 construction jobs.
ECH schemes can bring significant regenerative impacts for the local communities through increased local service provision and opportunities to support development of the social enterprise sector which itself would also offer local employment opportunities.
39 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
7 Conclusions
7.1.1 In reviewing the demand estimates contained in North Yorkshire County Council’s initial Housing Needs Analysis for Accommodation with Care this report concludes that:
(a) The 65+ population has been growing more rapidly in North Yorkshire than the national average since 1981 with especially high growth rates for 85+ which will lead to increased demands for care now and in the future. Rising life expectancy is a key driver.
(b) The growth of the 65+ population is expected to increase significantly over the next 20 years using the accepted DoH/IPC POPPI projections (+2.43% per annum). Even under a more conservative growth scenario (2%) the 65+ population will increase by 63,100 (+55%) by 2030. This rises to an increase of 83,400 (+72%) under the higher growth scenario (+2.5%) which reflects the POPPI projections.
(c) Compared to North Yorkshire CC’s proposal to develop a programme of 31 ECHs by 2016, new and replacement gross demand for accommodation with care could result in the need for 27 ECHs from the public and private sectors under the medium growth scenario by 2016 and 31 ECHs under the high growth scenario by 2016 at rates of 4 to 5 ECHs per annum across the County. However given the population trend of ongoing growth in the 65+ group this growth in ECHs is likely to just have to continue beyond 2016 to 2020. Therefore between 2010 and 2020 39 and 46 ECHs could be required under the medium and high growth scenarios and these are up to 50% higher than the current six year proposals to 2016.
(d) New and replacement gross demand for accommodation with care could result in the need for 17 ECHs from the public sector (LAs/CSSR supported provision) under the medium growth scenario to 2016 and 21 ECHs under the high growth scenario to 2016 at rates of 2.5 to 3 ECHs per annum across the County. However given the population trend of ongoing growth in the 65+ group this growth ECHs would just have to continue beyond 2016 to 2020. Therefore 2010 and 2020 between 23 and 28 ECHs could be required under the medium and high growth scenarios.
(e) Considering the evidence of strong future gross demand, even when tested under more conservative scenarios, and the potential for scale efficiencies in procurement and development, it is concluded that a programme of 25 to 30 publicly developed ECHs developed between 2010 and 2020 is entirely reasonable and would align with the potentially required provision form the public sector (LAs/CSSR supported provision). Furthermore, if North Yorkshire CC took a 20 year time horizon for service planning this demand analysis suggests that between 48 and 59 additional ECHs (provided or funded by the CSSR) could be required between 2010 and 2030.
(f) In terms of local demand the proposed number of ECHs by district appear in line with total gross additional market demand for accommodation with care in Craven, Richmondshire, Ryedale and Selby but below total market demand in Hambleton, Harrogate and Scarborough. Assuming the logic that private sector providers will target these latter locations this spatial spread makes sense in terms of ensuring county-wide provision and giving local residents ECH options relatively close to their current locations 43 .
43 In addition to Harrogate and Scarborough most of the population of North Yorkshire live in one of 28 market towns, small villages and hamlets. 40 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
(g) There are a number of potential economic and regenerative impacts from undertaking a large scale programme to build 31 Extra Care Homes which could involve £217 million of capital investment. When an ECH results in a range of new local services and forms a new community hub in a town there are important placemaking benefits. The proposed programme could also deliver significant potential economic benefits including the creation of up to 775 new jobs in the care sector which would be worth £11 million (in terms of RDA units costs for job creation) as well as 296 additional construction jobs . Additionally as many of the services provided in an ECH are based on the social enterprise model the programme would offer an important opportunity for the development of this sector in various locations across the County.
41 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
8 Appendix – District Demand Data
Craven All Care Homes Growth Scenarios for 65+ Population 2010- 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2030 Estimated annual increase in 65+ living in a LA or non-LA care home with or without 13 17 20 nursing care (2010-2020) Additional care homes per annum (40 0.3 0.3 0.4 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2016 1.5 2.0 2.4 New demand: care homes 2010-2020 2.6 3.3 4.0 Estimated annual increase in 65+ living in a LA or non-LA care home with or without 19 24 30 nursing care (2010-2030) Additional care homes per annum (40 0.4 0.5 0.6 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2030 5.1 6.6 8.1
Craven Residential or Nursing Care provided by CSSR Growth Scenarios for 65+ Population 2010- 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2030 Estimated annual increase in 65+ having residential or nursing care provided or 6 8 10 purchased by the CSSR (2010-2020) Additional Care Homes per annum (40 0.1 0.2 0.2 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2016 0.7 1.0 1.2 New demand: care homes 2010-2020 1.2 1.6 2.1 Estimated annual increase in 65+ having residential or nursing care provided or 6 9 12 purchased by the CSSR (2010-2030) Additional Care Homes per annum (40 0.1 0.2 0.2 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2030 2.3 3.2 4.1
Growth Craven 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010-15 2010-15 2010-15 2010-20 2010-20 2010-20 2010-30 2010-30 2010-30 Scenario Change % Annual Change % Annual Change % Annual Total population 65 and over 1.5% 12,200 12,569 13,540 14,587 15,714 16,928 971 7.7% 194 2,018 16.1% 202 4,360 34.7% 218 2.0% 12,200 12,693 14,014 15,473 17,083 18,861 1,321 10.4% 264 2,780 21.9% 278 6,168 48.6% 308 2.5% 12,200 12,818 14,502 16,408 18,564 21,003 1,684 13.1% 337 3,590 28.0% 359 8,186 63.9% 409 People aged 18-64 predicted to have a POPPI 174 177 176 180 184 186 -1 -0.6% 0 3 1.7% 0 9 5.1% 0 moderate or severe learning disability People aged 18-64 predicted to have a POPPI 3,638 3,753 3,742 3,893 3,949 3,868 -11 -0.3% -2 140 3.7% 14 115 3.1% 6 moderare or a serious physical disability Total Potential Demand for ECH 1.5% 16,013 16,499 17,458 18,660 19,847 20,982 959 5.8% 192 2,161 13.1% 216 4,484 27.2% 224 2.0% 16,013 16,623 17,932 19,546 21,216 22,915 1,309 7.9% 262 2,923 17.6% 292 6,292 37.9% 315 2.5% 16,013 16,748 18,420 20,481 22,697 25,057 1,672 10.0% 334 3,733 22.3% 373 8,310 49.6% 415 Total population aged 65 and over with a 1.5% 5,378 5,775 6,278 6,878 7,411 397 7.4% 79 901 16.8% 90 2,033 37.8% 102 limiting long-term illness 2.0% 5,431 5,977 6,660 7,477 8,257 546 10.1% 109 1,229 22.6% 123 2,826 52.0% 141 2.5% 5,484 6,185 7,062 8,126 9,195 701 12.8% 140 1,578 28.8% 158 3,711 67.7% 186 Number of people aged 65 and over helped to 1.5% 1,672 1,801 1,940 2,090 2,251 129 7.7% 26 268 16.1% 27 580 34.7% 29 live independently 2.0% 1,688 1,864 2,058 2,272 2,509 176 10.4% 35 370 21.9% 37 820 48.6% 41 2.5% 1,705 1,929 2,182 2,469 2,793 224 13.1% 45 477 28.0% 48 1,089 63.9% 54 Total population aged 65 and over predicted to 1.5% 893 940 1,076 1,240 1,408 47 5.3% 9 184 20.6% 18 515 57.7% 26 have dementia 2.0% 902 973 1,142 1,348 1,568 71 7.9% 14 240 26.6% 24 667 73.9% 33 2.5% 911 1,007 1,211 1,465 1,746 96 10.6% 19 300 33.0% 30 836 91.8% 42
Hambleton All Care Homes Growth Scenarios for 65+ Population 2010- 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2030 Estimated annual increase in 65+ living in a LA or non-LA care home with or without 18 24 29 nursing care (2010-2020) Additional care homes per annum (40 0.4 0.5 0.6 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2016 2.2 2.8 3.5 New demand: care homes 2010-2020 3.7 4.7 5.8 Estimated annual increase in 65+ living in a LA or non-LA care home with or without 27 34 42 nursing care (2010-2030) Additional care homes per annum (40 0.5 0.7 0.8 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2030 7.3 9.4 11.5
Hambleton Residential or Nursing Care provided by CSSR Growth Scenarios for 65+ Population 2010- 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2030 Estimated annual increase in 65+ having residential or nursing care provided or 8 11 15 purchased by the CSSR (2010-2020) Additional Care Homes per annum (40 0.2 0.2 0.3 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2016 1.0 1.4 1.8 New demand: care homes 2010-2020 1.7 2.3 2.9 Estimated annual increase in 65+ having residential or nursing care provided or 9 13 17 purchased by the CSSR (2010-2030) Additional Care Homes per annum (40 0.2 0.3 0.3 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2030 3.3 4.6 5.9
Growth Hambleton 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010-15 2010-15 2010-15 2010-20 2010-20 2010-20 2010-30 2010-30 2010-30 Scenario Change % Annual Change % Annual Change % Annual Total population 65 and over 1.5% 17,400 17,926 19,311 20,804 22,412 24,144 1,385 7.7% 277 2,878 16.1% 288 6,218 34.7% 311 2.0% 17,400 18,103 19,987 22,067 24,364 26,900 1,884 10.4% 377 3,964 21.9% 396 8,797 48.6% 440 2.5% 17,400 18,281 20,683 23,401 26,476 29,955 2,402 13.1% 480 5,120 28.0% 512 11,674 63.9% 584 People aged 18-64 predicted to have a POPPI 274 277 270 270 271 272 -7 -2.5% -1 -7 -2.5% -1 -5 -1.8% 0 moderate or severe learning disability People aged 18-64 predicted to have a POPPI 5,628 5,809 5,649 5,719 5,671 5,447 -160 -2.8% -32 -90 -1.5% -9 -362 -6.2% -18 moderare or a serious physical disability Total Potential Demand for ECH 1.5% 23,302 24,012 25,230 26,793 28,354 29,863 1,218 5.1% 244 2,781 11.6% 278 5,851 24.4% 293 2.0% 23,302 24,189 25,906 28,056 30,306 32,619 1,717 7.1% 343 3,867 16.0% 387 8,430 34.9% 422 2.5% 23,302 24,367 26,602 29,390 32,418 35,674 2,235 9.2% 447 5,023 20.6% 502 11,307 46.4% 565 Total population aged 65 and over with a 1.5% 7,670 8,236 8,954 9,810 10,570 566 7.4% 113 1,285 16.8% 128 2,900 37.8% 145 limiting long-term illness 2.0% 7,745 8,524 9,498 10,664 11,776 779 10.1% 156 1,753 22.6% 175 4,031 52.0% 202 2.5% 7,821 8,821 10,072 11,589 13,114 1,000 12.8% 200 2,251 28.8% 225 5,292 67.7% 265 Number of people aged 65 and over helped to 1.5% 2,384 2,568 2,767 2,981 3,211 184 7.7% 37 383 16.1% 38 827 34.7% 41 live independently 2.0% 2,408 2,658 2,935 3,240 3,578 251 10.4% 50 527 21.9% 53 1,170 48.6% 59 2.5% 2,431 2,751 3,112 3,521 3,984 320 13.1% 64 681 28.0% 68 1,553 63.9% 78 Total population aged 65 and over predicted to 1.5% 1,273 1,341 1,535 1,768 2,008 67 5.3% 13 262 20.6% 26 734 57.7% 37 have dementia 2.0% 1,286 1,388 1,629 1,922 2,237 102 7.9% 20 343 26.6% 34 951 73.9% 48 2.5% 1,299 1,436 1,727 2,089 2,491 137 10.6% 27 428 33.0% 43 1,192 91.8% 60
43 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
Harrogate All Care Homes Growth Scenarios for 65+ Population 2010- 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2030 Estimated annual increase in 65+ living in a LA or non-LA care home with or without 31 40 49 nursing care (2010-2020) Additional care homes per annum (40 0.6 0.8 1.0 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2016 3.7 4.7 5.9 New demand: care homes 2010-2020 6.2 7.9 9.8 Estimated annual increase in 65+ living in a LA or non-LA care home with or without 46 58 71 nursing care (2010-2030) Additional care homes per annum (40 0.9 1.1 1.4 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2030 12.4 15.8 19.5
Harrogate Residential or Nursing Care provided by CSSR Growth Scenarios for 65+ Population 2010- 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2030 Estimated annual increase in 65+ having residential or nursing care provided or 14 19 25 purchased by the CSSR (2010-2020) Additional Care Homes per annum (40 0.3 0.4 0.5 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2016 1.7 2.3 3.0 New demand: care homes 2010-2020 2.8 3.9 5.0 Estimated annual increase in 65+ having residential or nursing care provided or 15 22 29 purchased by the CSSR (2010-2030) Additional Care Homes per annum (40 0.3 0.4 0.6 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2030 5.6 7.7 10.0
Growth Harrogate 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010-15 2010-15 2010-15 2010-20 2010-20 2010-20 2010-30 2010-30 2010-30 Scenario Change % Annual Change % Annual Change % Annual Total population 65 and over 1.5% 29,400 30,289 32,629 35,151 37,868 40,794 2,341 7.7% 468 4,863 16.1% 486 10,506 34.7% 525 2.0% 29,400 30,588 33,771 37,286 41,167 45,452 3,184 10.4% 637 6,699 21.9% 670 14,864 48.6% 743 2.5% 29,400 30,888 34,947 39,540 44,736 50,614 4,059 13.1% 812 8,651 28.0% 865 19,726 63.9% 986 People aged 18-64 predicted to have a POPPI 515 510 515 530 542 553 5 1.0% 1 20 3.9% 2 43 8.4% 2 moderate or severe learning disability People aged 18-64 predicted to have a POPPI 10,106 10,160 10,251 10,718 10,859 10,716 91 0.9% 18 558 5.5% 56 556 5.5% 28 moderare or a serious physical disability Total Potential Demand for ECH 1.5% 40,021 40,959 43,395 46,399 49,269 52,063 2,437 5.9% 487 5,441 13.3% 544 11,105 27.1% 555 2.0% 40,021 41,258 44,537 48,534 52,568 56,721 3,280 7.9% 656 7,277 17.6% 728 15,463 37.5% 773 2.5% 40,021 41,558 45,713 50,788 56,137 61,883 4,155 10.0% 831 9,229 22.2% 923 20,325 48.9% 1,016 Total population aged 65 and over with a 1.5% 12,959 13,916 15,130 16,575 17,859 957 7.4% 191 2,171 16.8% 217 4,900 37.8% 245 limiting long-term illness 2.0% 13,087 14,403 16,049 18,019 19,898 1,316 10.1% 263 2,962 22.6% 296 6,811 52.0% 341 2.5% 13,216 14,904 17,019 19,581 22,158 1,689 12.8% 338 3,803 28.8% 380 8,942 67.7% 447 Number of people aged 65 and over helped to 1.5% 4,028 4,340 4,675 5,036 5,426 311 7.7% 62 647 16.1% 65 1,397 34.7% 70 live independently 2.0% 4,068 4,492 4,959 5,475 6,045 423 10.4% 85 891 21.9% 89 1,977 48.6% 99 2.5% 4,108 4,648 5,259 5,950 6,732 540 13.1% 108 1,151 28.0% 115 2,624 63.9% 131 Total population aged 65 and over predicted to 1.5% 2,152 2,266 2,594 2,988 3,392 114 5.3% 23 442 20.6% 44 1,241 57.7% 62 have dementia 2.0% 2,173 2,345 2,752 3,248 3,779 172 7.9% 34 579 26.6% 58 1,607 73.9% 80 2.5% 2,194 2,426 2,918 3,529 4,209 232 10.6% 46 724 33.0% 72 2,014 91.8% 101
44 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
Richmondshire All Care Homes Growth Scenarios for 65+ Population 2010- 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2030 Estimated annual increase in 65+ living in a LA or non-LA care home with or without 9 11 14 nursing care (2010-2020) Additional care homes per annum (40 0.2 0.2 0.3 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2016 1.1 1.4 1.7 New demand: care homes 2010-2020 1.8 2.3 2.8 Estimated annual increase in 65+ living in a LA or non-LA care home with or without 13 17 20 nursing care (2010-2030) Additional care homes per annum (40 0.3 0.3 0.4 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2030 3.5 4.5 5.6
Richmondshire Residential or Nursing Care provided by CSSR Growth Scenarios for 65+ Population 2010- 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2030 Estimated annual increase in 65+ having residential or nursing care provided or 4 6 7 purchased by the CSSR (2010-2020) Additional Care Homes per annum (40 0.1 0.1 0.1 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2016 0.5 0.7 0.9 New demand: care homes 2010-2020 0.8 1.1 1.4 Estimated annual increase in 65+ having residential or nursing care provided or 4 6 8 purchased by the CSSR (2010-2030) Additional Care Homes per annum (40 0.1 0.1 0.2 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2030 1.6 2.2 2.8
Growth Richmondshire 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010-15 2010-15 2010-15 2010-20 2010-20 2010-20 2010-30 2010-30 2010-30 Scenario Change % Annual Change % Annual Change % Annual Total population 65 and over 1.5% 8,400 8,654 9,323 10,043 10,819 11,656 669 7.7% 134 1,389 16.1% 139 3,002 34.7% 150 2.0% 8,400 8,739 9,649 10,653 11,762 12,986 910 10.4% 182 1,914 21.9% 191 4,247 48.6% 212 2.5% 8,400 8,825 9,985 11,297 12,782 14,461 1,160 13.1% 232 2,472 28.0% 247 5,636 63.9% 282 People aged 18-64 predicted to have a POPPI 169 177 182 187 191 193 5 2.8% 1 10 5.6% 1 16 9.0% 1 moderate or severe learning disability People aged 18-64 predicted to have a POPPI 3,115 3,308 3,342 3,484 3,542 3,507 34 1.0% 7 176 5.3% 18 199 6.0% 10 moderare or a serious physical disability Total Potential Demand for ECH 1.5% 11,684 12,139 12,847 13,714 14,552 15,356 708 5.8% 142 1,575 13.0% 158 3,217 26.5% 161 2.0% 11,684 12,224 13,173 14,324 15,495 16,686 949 7.8% 190 2,100 17.2% 210 4,462 36.5% 223 2.5% 11,684 12,310 13,509 14,968 16,515 18,161 1,199 9.7% 240 2,658 21.6% 266 5,851 47.5% 293 Total population aged 65 and over with a 1.5% 3,703 3,976 4,323 4,736 5,103 273 7.4% 55 620 16.8% 62 1,400 37.8% 70 limiting long-term illness 2.0% 3,739 4,115 4,585 5,148 5,685 376 10.1% 75 846 22.6% 85 1,946 52.0% 97 2.5% 3,776 4,258 4,863 5,595 6,331 483 12.8% 97 1,087 28.8% 109 2,555 67.7% 128 Number of people aged 65 and over helped to 1.5% 1,151 1,240 1,336 1,439 1,550 89 7.7% 18 185 16.1% 18 399 34.7% 20 live independently 2.0% 1,162 1,283 1,417 1,564 1,727 121 10.4% 24 255 21.9% 25 565 48.6% 28 2.5% 1,174 1,328 1,503 1,700 1,923 154 13.1% 31 329 28.0% 33 750 63.9% 37 Total population aged 65 and over predicted to 1.5% 615 647 741 854 969 33 5.3% 7 126 20.6% 13 354 57.7% 18 have dementia 2.0% 621 670 786 928 1,080 49 7.9% 10 165 26.6% 17 459 73.9% 23 2.5% 627 693 834 1,008 1,202 66 10.6% 13 207 33.0% 21 576 91.8% 29
45 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
Ryedale All Care Homes Growth Scenarios for 65+ Population 2010- 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2030 Estimated annual increase in 65+ living in a LA or non-LA care home with or without 12 15 19 nursing care (2010-2020) Additional care homes per annum (40 0.2 0.3 0.4 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2016 1.4 1.8 2.3 New demand: care homes 2010-2020 2.4 3.1 3.8 Estimated annual increase in 65+ living in a LA or non-LA care home with or without 18 22 28 nursing care (2010-2030) Additional care homes per annum (40 0.4 0.4 0.5 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2030 4.8 6.1 7.6
Ryedale Residential or Nursing Care provided by CSSR Growth Scenarios for 65+ Population 2010- 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2030 Estimated annual increase in 65+ having residential or nursing care provided or 5 8 10 purchased by the CSSR (2010-2020) Additional Care Homes per annum (40 0.1 0.1 0.2 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2016 0.7 0.9 1.2 New demand: care homes 2010-2020 1.1 1.5 1.9 Estimated annual increase in 65+ having residential or nursing care provided or 6 8 11 purchased by the CSSR (2010-2030) Additional Care Homes per annum (40 0.1 0.2 0.2 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2030 2.2 3.0 3.9
Growth Ryedale 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010-15 2010-15 2010-15 2010-20 2010-20 2010-20 2010-30 2010-30 2010-30 Scenario Change % Annual Change % Annual Change % Annual Total population 65 and over 1.5% 11,400 11,745 12,652 13,630 14,683 15,818 908 7.7% 182 1,885 16.1% 189 4,074 34.7% 204 2.0% 11,400 11,861 13,095 14,458 15,963 17,624 1,234 10.4% 247 2,597 21.9% 260 5,764 48.6% 288 2.5% 11,400 11,977 13,551 15,332 17,346 19,626 1,574 13.1% 315 3,355 28.0% 335 7,649 63.9% 382 People aged 18-64 predicted to have a POPPI 165 169 168 173 176 178 -1 -0.6% 0 4 2.4% 0 9 5.3% 0 moderate or severe learning disability People aged 18-64 predicted to have a POPPI 3,458 3,619 3,592 3,724 3,759 3,703 -27 -0.7% -5 105 2.9% 11 84 2.3% 4 moderare or a serious physical disability Total Potential Demand for ECH 1.5% 15,023 15,533 16,412 17,527 18,618 19,699 880 5.7% 176 1,994 12.8% 199 4,167 26.8% 208 2.0% 15,023 15,649 16,855 18,355 19,898 21,505 1,206 7.7% 241 2,706 17.3% 271 5,857 37.4% 293 2.5% 15,023 15,765 17,311 19,229 21,281 23,507 1,546 9.8% 309 3,464 22.0% 346 7,742 49.1% 387 Total population aged 65 and over with a 1.5% 5,025 5,396 5,867 6,427 6,925 371 7.4% 74 842 16.8% 84 1,900 37.8% 95 limiting long-term illness 2.0% 5,075 5,585 6,223 6,987 7,716 510 10.1% 102 1,149 22.6% 115 2,641 52.0% 132 2.5% 5,124 5,779 6,599 7,593 8,592 655 12.8% 131 1,475 28.8% 147 3,467 67.7% 173 Number of people aged 65 and over helped to 1.5% 1,562 1,683 1,813 1,953 2,104 121 7.7% 24 251 16.1% 25 542 34.7% 27 live independently 2.0% 1,577 1,742 1,923 2,123 2,344 164 10.4% 33 345 21.9% 35 767 48.6% 38 2.5% 1,593 1,802 2,039 2,307 2,610 209 13.1% 42 446 28.0% 45 1,017 63.9% 51 Total population aged 65 and over predicted to 1.5% 834 878 1,006 1,158 1,315 44 5.3% 9 172 20.6% 17 481 57.7% 24 have dementia 2.0% 843 909 1,067 1,259 1,465 67 7.9% 13 224 26.6% 22 623 73.9% 31 2.5% 851 941 1,131 1,369 1,632 90 10.6% 18 281 33.0% 28 781 91.8% 39
46 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
Scarborough All Care Homes Growth Scenarios for 65+ Population 2010- 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2030 Estimated annual increase in 65+ living in a LA or non-LA care home with or without 26 33 40 nursing care (2010-2020) Additional care homes per annum (40 0.5 0.7 0.8 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2016 3.1 3.9 4.8 New demand: care homes 2010-2020 5.1 6.5 8.0 Estimated annual increase in 65+ living in a LA or non-LA care home with or without 37 48 59 nursing care (2010-2030) Additional care homes per annum (40 0.7 0.9 1.2 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2030 10.2 13.0 16.1
Scarborough Residential or Nursing Care provided by CSSR Growth Scenarios for 65+ Population 2010- 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2030 Estimated annual increase in 65+ having residential or nursing care provided or 12 16 21 purchased by the CSSR (2010-2020) Additional Care Homes per annum (40 0.2 0.3 0.4 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2016 1.4 1.9 2.5 New demand: care homes 2010-2020 2.3 3.2 4.1 Estimated annual increase in 65+ having residential or nursing care provided or 13 18 24 purchased by the CSSR (2010-2030) Additional Care Homes per annum (40 0.2 0.4 0.5 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2030 4.6 6.3 8.2
Growth Scarborough 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010-15 2010-15 2010-15 2010-20 2010-20 2010-20 2010-30 2010-30 2010-30 Scenario Change % Annual Change % Annual Change % Annual Total population 65 and over 1.5% 24,200 24,931 26,858 28,934 31,170 33,579 1,927 7.7% 385 4,003 16.1% 400 8,648 34.7% 432 2.0% 24,200 25,178 27,798 30,691 33,886 37,413 2,621 10.4% 524 5,514 21.9% 551 12,235 48.6% 612 2.5% 24,200 25,425 28,766 32,546 36,823 41,662 3,341 13.1% 668 7,121 28.0% 712 16,237 63.9% 812 People aged 18-64 predicted to have a POPPI 335 346 345 346 353 357 -1 -0.3% 0 0 0.0% 0 11 3.2% 1 moderate or severe learning disability People aged 18-64 predicted to have a POPPI 6,802 7,148 6,962 7,101 7,135 6,990 -186 -2.6% -37 -47 -0.7% -5 -158 -2.2% -8 moderare or a serious physical disability Total Potential Demand for ECH 1.5% 31,337 32,425 34,165 36,381 38,658 40,926 1,740 5.4% 348 3,956 12.2% 396 8,501 26.2% 425 2.0% 31,337 32,672 35,105 38,138 41,374 44,760 2,434 7.4% 487 5,467 16.7% 547 12,088 37.0% 604 2.5% 31,337 32,919 36,073 39,993 44,311 49,009 3,154 9.6% 631 7,074 21.5% 707 16,090 48.9% 804 Total population aged 65 and over with a 1.5% 10,667 11,455 12,454 13,643 14,700 788 7.4% 158 1,787 16.8% 179 4,033 37.8% 202 limiting long-term illness 2.0% 10,772 11,855 13,210 14,832 16,379 1,083 10.1% 217 2,438 22.6% 244 5,606 52.0% 280 2.5% 10,878 12,268 14,009 16,118 18,239 1,390 12.8% 278 3,131 28.8% 313 7,361 67.7% 368 Number of people aged 65 and over helped to 1.5% 3,316 3,572 3,848 4,146 4,466 256 7.7% 51 532 16.1% 53 1,150 34.7% 58 live independently 2.0% 3,349 3,697 4,082 4,507 4,976 349 10.4% 70 733 21.9% 73 1,627 48.6% 81 2.5% 3,382 3,826 4,329 4,897 5,541 444 13.1% 89 947 28.0% 95 2,160 63.9% 108 Total population aged 65 and over predicted to 1.5% 1,771 1,865 2,135 2,459 2,792 94 5.3% 19 364 20.6% 36 1,021 57.7% 51 have dementia 2.0% 1,789 1,930 2,265 2,673 3,111 142 7.9% 28 476 26.6% 48 1,322 73.9% 66 2.5% 1,806 1,997 2,402 2,905 3,464 191 10.6% 38 596 33.0% 60 1,658 91.8% 83
47 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
Selby All Care Homes Growth Scenarios for 65+ Population 2010- 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2030 Estimated annual increase in 65+ living in a LA or non-LA care home with or without 14 17 22 nursing care (2010-2020) Additional care homes per annum (40 0.3 0.3 0.4 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2016 1.6 2.1 2.6 New demand: care homes 2010-2020 2.7 3.5 4.3 Estimated annual increase in 65+ living in a LA or non-LA care home with or without 20 25 31 nursing care (2010-2030) Additional care homes per annum (40 0.4 0.5 0.6 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2030 5.4 6.9 8.6
Selby Residential or Nursing Care provided by CSSR Growth Scenarios for 65+ Population 2010- 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2030 Estimated annual increase in 65+ having residential or nursing care provided or 6 9 11 purchased by the CSSR (2010-2020) Additional Care Homes per annum (40 0.1 0.2 0.2 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2016 0.7 1.0 1.3 New demand: care homes 2010-2020 1.2 1.7 2.2 Estimated annual increase in 65+ having residential or nursing care provided or 7 9 13 purchased by the CSSR (2010-2030) Additional Care Homes per annum (40 0.1 0.2 0.2 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2030 2.5 3.4 4.4
Growth Selby 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010-15 2010-15 2010-15 2010-20 2010-20 2010-20 2010-30 2010-30 2010-30 Scenario Change % Annual Change % Annual Change % Annual Total population 65 and over 1.5% 12,900 13,290 14,317 15,423 16,615 17,900 1,027 7.7% 205 2,134 16.1% 213 4,610 34.7% 230 2.0% 12,900 13,421 14,818 16,360 18,063 19,943 1,397 10.4% 279 2,939 21.9% 294 6,522 48.6% 326 2.5% 12,900 13,553 15,334 17,349 19,629 22,208 1,781 13.1% 356 3,796 28.0% 380 8,655 63.9% 433 People aged 18-64 predicted to have a POPPI 269 280 285 299 313 321 5 1.8% 1 19 6.8% 2 41 14.6% 2 moderate or severe learning disability People aged 18-64 predicted to have a POPPI 5,308 5,601 5,714 6,032 6,228 6,238 113 2.0% 23 431 7.7% 43 637 11.4% 32 moderare or a serious physical disability Total Potential Demand for ECH 1.5% 18,477 19,171 20,316 21,754 23,156 24,459 1,145 6.0% 229 2,584 13.5% 258 5,288 27.6% 264 2.0% 18,477 19,302 20,817 22,691 24,604 26,502 1,515 7.8% 303 3,389 17.6% 339 7,200 37.3% 360 2.5% 18,477 19,434 21,333 23,680 26,170 28,767 1,899 9.8% 380 4,246 21.8% 425 9,333 48.0% 467 Total population aged 65 and over with a 1.5% 5,686 6,106 6,639 7,273 7,836 420 7.4% 84 953 16.8% 95 2,150 37.8% 108 limiting long-term illness 2.0% 5,742 6,320 7,042 7,906 8,731 577 10.1% 115 1,300 22.6% 130 2,989 52.0% 149 2.5% 5,799 6,540 7,467 8,592 9,722 741 12.8% 148 1,669 28.8% 167 3,924 67.7% 196 Number of people aged 65 and over helped to 1.5% 1,768 1,904 2,051 2,210 2,381 137 7.7% 27 284 16.1% 28 613 34.7% 31 live independently 2.0% 1,785 1,971 2,176 2,402 2,652 186 10.4% 37 391 21.9% 39 867 48.6% 43 2.5% 1,803 2,039 2,307 2,611 2,954 237 13.1% 47 505 28.0% 50 1,151 63.9% 58 Total population aged 65 and over predicted to 1.5% 944 994 1,138 1,311 1,488 50 5.3% 10 194 20.6% 19 544 57.7% 27 have dementia 2.0% 953 1,029 1,207 1,425 1,658 75 7.9% 15 254 26.6% 25 705 73.9% 35 2.5% 963 1,065 1,280 1,549 1,847 102 10.6% 20 318 33.0% 32 884 91.8% 44
48 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
7 Districts All Care Homes Growth Scenarios for 65+ Population 2010- 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2030 Estimated annual increase in 65+ living in a LA or non-LA care home with or without 123 157 194 nursing care (2010-2020) Additional care homes per annum (40 2.4 3.1 3.8 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2016 14.6 18.7 23.1 New demand: care homes 2010-2020 24.4 31.2 38.5 Estimated annual increase in 65+ living in a LA or non-LA care home with or without 180 228 281 nursing care (2010-2030) Additional care homes per annum (40 3.6 4.5 5.6 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2030 48.7 62.4 76.9
7 Districts Residential or Nursing Care provided by CSSR Growth Scenarios for 65+ Population 2010- 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2030 Estimated annual increase in 65+ having residential or nursing care provided or 56 77 99 purchased by the CSSR (2010-2020) Additional Care Homes per annum (40 1.1 1.5 2.0 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2016 6.6 9.1 11.8 New demand: care homes 2010-2020 11.0 15.2 19.6 Estimated annual increase in 65+ having residential or nursing care provided or 60 85 113 purchased by the CSSR (2010-2030) Additional Care Homes per annum (40 1.2 1.7 2.2 units/home x 1.26 people per unit) New demand: care homes 2010-2030 22.1 30.4 39.2
Growth 7 Districts 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010-15 2010-15 2010-15 2010-20 2010-20 2010-20 2010-30 2010-30 2010-30 Scenario Change % Annual Change % Annual Change % Annual Total population 65 and over 1.5% 115,900 119,403 128,631 138,572 149,282 160,819 9,228 7.7% 1,846 19,169 16.1% 1,917 41,416 34.7% 2,071 2.0% 115,900 120,582 133,133 146,989 162,288 179,179 12,550 10.4% 2,510 26,407 21.9% 2,641 58,597 48.6% 2,930 2.5% 115,900 121,767 137,769 155,873 176,356 199,530 16,001 13.1% 3,200 34,105 28.0% 3,411 77,763 63.9% 3,888 People aged 18-64 predicted to have a POPPI 1,901 1,936 1,941 1,985 2,030 2,060 5 0.3% 1 49 2.5% 5 124 6.4% 6 moderate or severe learning disability People aged 18-64 predicted to have a POPPI 38,055 39,398 39,252 40,671 41,143 40,469 -146 -0.4% -29 1,273 3.2% 127 1,071 2.7% 54 moderare or a serious physical disability Total Potential Demand for ECH 1.5% 155,856 160,737 169,824 181,228 192,455 203,348 9,087 5.7% 1,817 20,491 12.7% 2,049 42,611 26.5% 2,131 2.0% 155,856 161,916 174,326 189,645 205,461 221,708 12,409 7.7% 2,482 27,729 17.1% 2,773 59,792 36.9% 2,990 2.5% 155,856 163,101 178,962 198,529 219,529 242,059 15,860 9.7% 3,172 35,427 21.7% 3,543 78,958 48.4% 3,948 Total population aged 65 and over with a 1.5% 51,086 54,859 59,645 65,342 70,403 3,773 7.4% 755 8,559 16.8% 856 19,317 37.8% 966 limiting long-term illness 2.0% 51,591 56,779 63,268 71,035 78,441 5,188 10.1% 1,038 11,677 22.6% 1,168 26,850 52.0% 1,343 2.5% 52,098 58,756 67,092 77,192 87,351 6,658 12.8% 1,332 14,994 28.8% 1,499 35,253 67.7% 1,763 Number of people aged 65 and over helped to 1.5% 15,881 17,108 18,430 19,854 21,389 1,227 7.7% 245 2,549 16.1% 255 5,508 34.7% 275 live independently 2.0% 16,037 17,707 19,550 21,584 23,831 1,669 10.4% 334 3,512 21.9% 351 7,793 48.6% 390 2.5% 16,195 18,323 20,731 23,455 26,538 2,128 13.1% 426 4,536 28.0% 454 10,342 63.9% 517 Total population aged 65 and over predicted to 1.5% 8,482 8,931 10,226 11,777 13,372 449 5.3% 90 1,744 20.6% 174 4,890 57.7% 245 have dementia 2.0% 8,566 9,244 10,847 12,804 14,899 678 7.9% 136 2,282 26.6% 228 6,333 73.9% 317 2.5% 8,650 9,565 11,503 13,913 16,591 916 10.6% 183 2,853 33.0% 285 7,941 91.8% 397
49 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010
50 Review of HNA Demand Estimates Final Report – 1 September 2010