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TH MBK Initiate 20130215 OSK Research 15 Feb 2013 THAILAND EQUITY Investment Research Daily Wanida Geisler 66 2862 9748 [email protected] Initiating Coverage MBK PCL Buy THB267 Deep Discount to RNAV Target 267 We initiate coverage on MBK with a BUY call and a TP of THB267. The company’s Price 145 focus is on retail, although its hotel and financial services businesses should see decent growth in the medium term. We estimate its RNAV at THB40bn, against its BV of THB14bn (THB95/share) and market cap of THB27bn. MBK’s recent asset sale Real Estate generated THB3bn in gains, boosting its cash pile to THB6.5bn. Out of this, we MBK PCL operates property, motorcycle leasing and hotel businesses. The company expect a surprise upside in its new ventures and a special dividend to shareholders th also owns the Mah Bo on Krong Center building to mark its 30 anniversary this year. complex in downtown Bangkok. The complex Diversified businesses. Listed in 1996, MBK is a leading retail/shopping operator that is consists of shopping malls, an office building and Patumwan Princess Hotel. Through its also involved in the hotels, property development, golf courses and rice businesses (under subsidiaries, the company distributes rice, the Mahboonkrong brand) and as well as financial services (leasing and mortgage). Its other grain products and operates a power retail business comprising MBK Center, Paradise Park and the Nine contributes 40% to its generation and distribution business. sales, and 80% to its operating profit. Stock Statistics Upside surprise expected to mark its 30th anniversary. 2012 was a period of recovery Bloomber g Ticker MBK TB for both its retail and hotel businesses, after several challenging years due to political Market Cap THB27,351m turmoil and floods. MBK Center’s renewal of its lease contract with Chulalongkorn USD915m University for another 20 years will come into effect in end-April 2013. Hence, all cheap 52 wk H/L price (THB) 147.50 91.00 sub-lease contracts with tenants as per its old lease will expire and it will be able to directly 3m ADT (‘000) 438 sign rental contracts with its tenants for higher fees. Although its core operation is set to be YTD Returns 33.5% weak with higher leasing fees at MBK Center (THB695m) and an underperforming rice Beta (x) 0.64 business given the government’s rice pledging scheme, its bottom line will be boosted by a Major Shareholders (%) THB3bn gain from the sale of its assets (6% stake in Erawan (ERW), 130 rai of land in Samui Island and Montien Hotel Pattaya). Patum Rice Mill and Granary 26.5 Thanachart Capital 19.9 RNAV estimated at THB40bn (THB267/share) , against its book value of THB14bn (THB95/share) and market cap of THB27bn. Its current market cap is equivalent to the value of its retail and hotel businesses less total liabilities plus cash on hand. It does not Share Performance (%) yet include its golf courses, property development, land bank and financial services Month Absolute Relative business. Hence, we believe MBK is still trading at a deep discount to its RNAV. 1m 31.2 25.2 3m 41.5 19.2 BUY. Our target price is based on an RNAV of THB267/share. As MBK is a cash-rich 6m 59.5 23.0 company (THB6.5bn) with a huge land bank of 670 rai and enjoys good relationships with 12m 62.8 14.7 Siam Piwat and Thanachart Capital (TCAP), we are anticipating more good news from the company in terms of new business ventures and a special dividend. Valuation-wise, MBK 6-month Share Price Performance is attractive as its P/E and P/B multiples are the lowest compared to other retail/tourism stocks, while its dividend yield is the highest at 5%. Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12F Dec-13F Dec-14F Total turnover (THBm) 6,575 7,740 8,054 8,438 9,382 Recurring net profit (THBm) 421 1,357 1,815 1,739 1,792 Net profit growth 0.0% 223.4% 33.1% 147.6% (60.1%) EPS (THB) 2.8 9.0 12.0 29.7 11.8 DPS (THB) 5.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 7.50 Source: Bloomberg Return on average assets 5.0% 6.4% 13.3% 4.7% Return on average equity 11.3% 13.8% 28.1% 10.0% Net debt to equity 5.7% 27.8% 11.2% (10.5%) (13.5%) Source: Company data, OSK Research estimates OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Powered by Enhanced Datasystems’ EFA Platform RNAV calculation Stake % Retail (sq.m.) Office (sq.m.) Investment (THBm) NAV (THBm) Remark MBK Center 100 92,000 MBK Tower 100 18,000 22,000 Value of new 20-year lease contract=200k/sq.m. Paradise Park 65.4 87,000 2,845 50% disc to value of CPN Pinklao sold to CPNRF Fund in 2009 The Nine 100 12,000 9,000 1,333 50% disc to value of CPN Pinklao sold to CPNRF Fund in 2009 Glas Haus 100 13,500 397 50% discount to price of the Offices at Central World Glas Haus 100 8,200 241 50% discount to price of the Offices at Central World BV Siam Piwat Stake% 1379 Siam Center 30.7 19,000 1,167 MBK asset price of THB200k/sq.m. as a benchmark Siam Discovery & 30.7 23,200 30,700 3,309 MBK asset price of THB200k/sq.m. as a benchmark Siam Paragon 15.4 191,000 5,883 MBK asset price of THB200k/sq.m. as a benchmark Retail 37,175 Hotel Stake # Room Replacement Patumwan 100% 455 6 2,730 Same replacement cost with ERAWAN's asset Sheraton Krabi 100% 240 10 2,400 Some discount to ERAWAN's replacement cost Tinidee Ranong 100% 135 2 270 Some discount to ERAWAN's replacement cost Tinidee Inn 100% 39 2 78 Some discount to ERAWAN's replacement cost Tinidee Phuket, 100% 45 2 90 Layana 100% 50 326 Appraised price from MBK 56-1 5,894 Mkt. cap (THBm) Investment (THBm) DMS Dusit Thani 30% 100 348 348 Investment cost from MBK ROH 30% 540 1781 533 Mkt. cap using current price DTC 12% 4636 4101 480 Mkt. cap using current price Hotel 7,254 Book Appr. Price Golf course Stake Land (rai) value(THBm) (THB/sq.wah) Lock Palm 100% 500 7,000 1,400 Cheapest land price in Phuket from Department of Land Red Mountain 100% 600 7,000 1,680 Cheapest land price in Phuket from Department of Land Riverdale 100% 360 3,500 504 Cheapest land price in Patumthani from Department of Land Lam Luk Ka 28% 1500 3,500 580 Cheapest land price in Patumthani from Department of Land Golf course 1636 4,164 Real Estate Year launch Project value % sold Remaining Backlog Housing Baan Suan Lock 2007 678 93% 49 25 The Indy II 2009 336 42% 193 11 Sabai Village I 2010 271 87% 34 48 The Pano 2010 381 0% 381 Sabai Village II 2011 504 19% 409 95 The Creek 2012 49 0% 49 Total 2219 54% 1115 179 1,115 From MBK Land for sale Planery Zone 2 2010 59 64% 22 38 RM 18A 2011 232 0% 232 Planery Zone 6 2012 50 0% 50 Little Lake Front 2012 50 0% 50 Total 391 9% 354 38 Grand 2610 46% 1469 217 1,469 From MBK Port. Dec-11 Port. Sep-12 (THBm) (THBm) MBK Guarantee 100 2245 3190 3,190 From MBK T Leasing 100 952 1410 1,410 From MBK Asset (THBm) Mkt. cap (THBm) TCAP 10.4 5033 12778 1,329 Using current mkt. cap MAXX 16.6 245 245 From MBK Appraised Land 673 rai 490 rai in Patumthani; others in Phuket, Chiengmai, Rayong, Bangkok etc. 2,301 Using appraised price from MBK and Department of Land RNAV-assets 59,651 Proceeds from ERW & Samui Land 1,623 MBK-Declared to Investors Proceeds from Pattaya 2,008 MBK-Declared to Investors Cash End Sept 12 2,897 Total liabilities End Sept 12 plus NPV of lease obligation (25,700) RNAV 40,479 No. of shares net treasury stocks 151.4 RNAV per share 267 Source: OSK, MBK 1 rai=1600 sq.m., 1 sq.wah=4 sq.m We appraised MBK’s assets using their replacement cost, appraisal prices from Department of Lands and the market cap estimates from TCAP, ROH and DTC and came up with RNAV of THB40bn (THB267/share). About 54% of its RNAV comprise cash of THB6.5bn, investments in listed companies (TCAP, ROH, DTC) at THB2.7bn, a landbank of THB2.3bn and a 30%-holding in Siam Piwat worth THB10bn. OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 In comparing MBK with other retail/tourism stocks like Central Plaza (CENTEL), Central Pattana (CPN), Minor International (MINT) and The Erawan Group (ERW), we noticed that it trades at the lowest P/E and P/B multiples among its peers although its dividend yield, at 5%, is the highest. However, its EV/EBITDA and ROE are at subpar levels because it has a big asset base. That said, there is still room for MBK to improve its efficiency and better utilize its assets. Figure 1: A peers comparison EV/EBITDA -------PE------ ----ROE--- -----P/BV---- Yield Yield 12f 13f 12f 13f 12f 13f 12f 13f 12f 13f (%) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%) CENTEL TB 20 19 43 34 17 18 7 6 1 1 CPN TB 28 23 32 35 24 19 8 7 1 1 MINT TB 16 14 32 25 14 14 4 3 1 1 ERW TB 20 18 135 17 3 19 4 3 0.3 2 MBK TB* 18 18 13 14 11 10 1.5 1.2 5 5 *Use pre-extra item profit to calculate PE and ROE Source: OSK estimates Based on its mean P/B and standard deviations, we found that its historical P/B surged above +2SD.
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