Adaptation Futures 2012 International Conference on Climate Adaptation, 29-31 May 2012 Arizona, USA

Dryland Development Paradigm: Adaptation of Pastoral Social- Ecological Systems in

T. Chuluun, Ph.D., Dryland Sustainability Institute Sustainable Development Institute, National University of Mongolia With M.Altanbagana, B. Tserenchunt & S. Davaanyam (DSI, Mongolia) Mark Stafford-Smith (CSIRO, Australia) & D. Ojima (CSU, USA) Social-ecological vulnerability assessment

Drought assessment Climate Ecological factor vulnerability + Social vulnerability Zud assessment assessment assessment Human Pasture use factor assessment Integrated vulnerability assessment of social-ecological system Ecological (a), social (b) and social-ecological vulnerability (c) assessments in Tuin and Baidrag river basins by ecozones

0.60 0.50 0.50 0.40 0.70 0.28 0.30 0.57 0.30 0.60 a 0.20 0.50 0.36 0.38 0.10 0.40 0.00 0.30 c Forest Steppe Desert 0.20 steppe steppe 0.10 0.7 0.65 0.00 0.6 0.47 0.49 0.5 Forest Steppe Desert c b 0.4 steppe steppe 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 (1986-2010) (Forest steppe: Jargalant, Zag, , ; Steppe: Bombogor, Ulziit; Desert Forest Steppe Desert steppe: Baatsagaan, , Jinst, Bogd) b steppe steppe Ecological vulnerability assessment: National scale

1970-1990 1991-2008

0.60

Long-term ecological 0.50 vulnerability dynamics in 0.40 Mongolia

0.30

1974 1984 1994 1970 1972 1976 1978 1980 1982 1986 1988 1990 1992 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Vulnerability assessment of social- ecological systems at country level

Huvsgul Bayan- Uvs Ulgii Bulgan Selenge Dornod Hovd Zavhan Hentii Arhangai Tuv

Suhbaatar Uvurhangai Govi-Altai Baynahong Dundgovi or Dornogovi

N Umnugovi LEGEND < 0.25 W E 0.26 - 0.35 0.36 - 0.45 S 0.46 - 0.55 0.56 <

No data Social-ecological vulnerability = ecological vulnerability + poverty indexes (UNDP) Chuluun, T. 2011. Land degradation and desertification in Mongolia. Background paper for the Mongolia Human Development Report 2011. Summary

• Desert-steppe region is likely the most vulnerable to climate change in Mongolia; • Ecoregion based-adaptation policy needs in different ecological-economic zones: – Resilient development of the Mongolian Gobi as an example The Mongolian Gobi – Globally Important Agricultural (Natural-Cultural) Heritage System

Technological Transformation Institutional innovation Баярлалаа! Thank you! Objectives

• Application of the DDP as a framework: – Understanding; – Social learning; – Awareness; – Integrated vulnerability assessment; • Capacity building for adaptation • Policy recommendations – Resilient development of the Mongolian Gobi DDP P2. Critical slow variables

Temperature increased by more than 20C since 1940 Climate change, particularly, global warming is critical slow variable! DDP P3. Thresholds

• Water resource decrease • Only 3 rivers out of 25 due to global warming in rivers (based on the map of the region already exceeded 1969) are inflowing into the the threshold level in both Tuin river, which flows into river basins. the Orog lake.