Adaptation of Pastoral Social- Ecological Systems in Mongolia

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Adaptation of Pastoral Social- Ecological Systems in Mongolia

Adaptation Futures 2012 International Conference on Climate Adaptation, 29-31 May 2012 Arizona, USA Dryland Development Paradigm: Adaptation of Pastoral Social- Ecological Systems in Mongolia T. Chuluun, Ph.D., Dryland Sustainability Institute Sustainable Development Institute, National University of Mongolia With M.Altanbagana, B. Tserenchunt & S. Davaanyam (DSI, Mongolia) Mark Stafford-Smith (CSIRO, Australia) & D. Ojima (CSU, USA) Social-ecological vulnerability assessment Drought assessment Climate Ecological factor vulnerability + Social vulnerability Zud assessment assessment assessment Human Pasture use factor assessment Integrated vulnerability assessment of social-ecological system Ecological (a), social (b) and social-ecological vulnerability (c) assessments in Tuin and Baidrag river basins by ecozones 0.60 0.50 0.50 0.40 0.70 0.28 0.30 0.57 0.30 0.60 a 0.20 0.50 0.36 0.38 0.10 0.40 0.00 0.30 c Forest Steppe Desert 0.20 steppe steppe 0.10 0.7 0.65 0.00 0.6 0.47 0.49 0.5 Forest Steppe Desert c b 0.4 steppe steppe 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 (1986-2010) (Forest steppe: Jargalant, Zag, Galuut, Erdenetsogt; Steppe: Bombogor, Ulziit; Desert Forest Steppe Desert steppe: Baatsagaan, Buutsagaan, Jinst, Bogd) b steppe steppe vulnerability dynamics in dynamics vulnerability Ecological vulnerability assessment: assessment: vulnerability Ecological Long - term ecological ecological term Mongolia 1970 - 1990 National scale National 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1991 1986 1988 - 2008 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Vulnerability assessment of social- ecological systems at country level Huvsgul Bayan- Uvs Ulgii Bulgan Selenge Dornod Hovd Zavhan Hentii Arhangai Tuv Suhbaatar Uvurhangai Govi-Altai Baynahong Dundgovi or Dornogovi N Umnugovi LEGEND < 0.25 W E 0.26 - 0.35 0.36 - 0.45 S 0.46 - 0.55 0.56 < No data Social-ecological vulnerability = ecological vulnerability + poverty indexes (UNDP) Chuluun, T. 2011. Land degradation and desertification in Mongolia. Background paper for the Mongolia Human Development Report 2011. Summary • Desert-steppe region is likely the most vulnerable to climate change in Mongolia; • Ecoregion based-adaptation policy needs in different ecological-economic zones: – Resilient development of the Mongolian Gobi as an example The Mongolian Gobi – Globally Important Agricultural (Natural-Cultural) Heritage System Technological Transformation Institutional innovation Баярлалаа! Thank you! Objectives • Application of the DDP as a framework: – Understanding; – Social learning; – Awareness; – Integrated vulnerability assessment; • Capacity building for adaptation • Policy recommendations – Resilient development of the Mongolian Gobi DDP P2. Critical slow variables Temperature increased by more than 20C since 1940 Climate change, particularly, global warming is critical slow variable! DDP P3. Thresholds • Water resource decrease • Only 3 rivers out of 25 due to global warming in rivers (based on the map of the region already exceeded 1969) are inflowing into the the threshold level in both Tuin river, which flows into river basins. the Orog lake..

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