DOCSLIB.ORG

Slim Prospects for US-Pakistan Relations to Pivot from AFPAK to Indo-Pacific by Riaz Khokhar

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Slim Prospects for US-Pakistan Relations to Pivot from AFPAK to Indo-Pacific by Riaz Khokhar Number 481 | June 19, 2019 EastWestCenter.org/APB Slim Prospects for US-Pakistan Relations to Pivot from AFPAK to Indo-Pacific By Riaz Khokhar The United States has not reoriented its Pakistan strategy away from a solely Afghanistan‐Pakistan basis toward a wider Indo‐Pacific perspecve. Even so, a significantly posive transformaon in Islamabad’s domesc environment and foreign relaons can change the U.S. and internaonal perspecves about Pakistan. For starters, there is a strong percepon in Washington policymaking circles that unl the Afghanistan issue is resolved, chances are slim that the United States will think of Pakistan in a broader Asian Riaz Khokhar, framework. Even the resoluon of the Afghanistan conundrum would not guarantee an improved U.S.‐ Vising Fellow at the Pakistan relaonship. Although Islamabad’s supporve role in the ongoing U.S.‐Taliban peace talks is East‐West Center in appreciable, there is palpable frustraon in the U.S. Department of Defense regarding Pakistan’s alleged Washington explains patronage of terrorist groups that have killed U.S. troops in Afghanistan. that “Unl the There is also skepcism about the U.S. pullout from Afghanistan because Washington has not yet achieved Afghanistan issue is its primary objecves. These include but are not limited to breaking the nexus between regional and resolved, chances are internaonal terrorist groups; augmenng the capacity of Afghan naonal security forces; and, eliminang slim that the United the possibility of Afghanistan as a launching pad of terrorism in the United States or its allied countries. States will think of Hence, the unaccomplished objecves make it less likely that the U.S. troops will leave any me soon. Pakistan in a broader Asian framework.” In the context of a wider Asian region, the U.S. Naonal Security Strategy of 2017 designated China as a primary strategic rival and downgraded terrorism to a secondary level threat. Thus, although the United States will retain some form of presence in Afghanistan for stability and counter‐terrorism measures, most of its military, economic, and diplomac capital will be directed toward the strategic compeon with China and Russia. So, as far as Afghanistan and counter‐terrorism issues are concerned, Pakistan has vital importance for the United States. But beyond Afghanistan, whether that means economic engagement or resumpon of military aid and assistance, Washington has nothing in store for Islamabad. In fact, with reference to the China‐Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), some U.S. government officials have stated that it is also in the U.S. interest that Beijing is contribung to Islamabad’s economic development. However, they have also expressed some concerns regarding the opaque nature of the Chinese loans and the extent to which Pakistan is providing China with access to its land and resources. These factors may make Islamabad more subservient to Chinese interests in the region and may dissuade Washington from considering Pakistan as a partner or even nonaligned in the U.S. strategic rivalry with Beijing. So, is Washington considering an offseng strategy to reduce China’s influence in Pakistan? Not really. Even if it were, there is a percepon in academia and the think tank community in Washington that the United States will not be able to reduce China’s influence in Pakistan. Does that mean that Islamabad does not factor in the U.S. strategy beyond Afghanistan? Not at the moment. Although the primary thrust of the U.S. Indo‐Pacific strategy is Southeast and Northeast Asia, it would be useful if Washington engages with and invests in some other countries, which do not want to rely solely on Beijing and seek to bring balance in their relaonships with both the United States and China. In this regard, the United States has enacted the Beer Ulizaon of Investment Leading toward Development (BUILD) Act, which may be implemented in the laer end of the year 2019. Under the Act, the U.S. State Department encourages private companies by guaranteeing investment insurances in less developed or developing countries. Apart from that, Japan has already been invesng in infrastructure and energy domains in various countries, including Pakistan, as part of its Partnership for Quality Infrastructure (PQI) "The consensus in iniave, which serves as both a commercial vision and an alternave to the Chinese Belt and Road Washington is that the projects. Pakistani state is responsible for aracng This is a great opportunity for Pakistan if the government is serious about aracng foreign direct investment, for which it investment. The consensus in Washington is that the Pakistani state is responsible for aracng needs to improve its investment, for which it needs to improve its business climate, economic governance, and most business climate, importantly its security environment. Foreign companies consider it too risky a proposion to invest in a economic governance, country which is grey‐listed by the Financial Acon Task Force (FATF) — an internaonal finance oversight and most importantly its organizaon — or which is ranked poorly (136/190) in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business index. security environment." As for the U.S.‐China strategic compeon, if Pakistan wants to remain nonaligned and not be seen as under China’s influence, there are a few steps that Islamabad can take. First, it should ask the World Bank to offer a technical assessment of its CPEC projects and the financial implicaons of Chinese long‐ term loans under those projects. Second, since the United States is discouraging its allies and partners from buying fih generaon telecommunicaon equipment from the Chinese Huawei network company, Pakistan should also voluntarily refuse to purchase the technology. Although it is unlikely that Islamabad will take these types of acons, such steps would send a strong signal to the White House and the Capitol Hill that Pakistan is not enrely under China’s influence and that it is making extraordinary efforts to improve relaons with the United States. This could be a stepping stone to enhancing U.S.‐Pakistan relaons in mulple potenal areas of cooperaon in the Indo‐Pacific region. In sum, the current U.S. administraon does not priorize expanding relaons with Pakistan beyond Afghanistan. Even if it did, Pakistan’s domesc economic slump and the hangover of the blame of terrorism‐sponsoring acvies in the region do not offer enough incenves to American and internaonal businesses to invest in the country beyond marginal levels. Above all, most of Pakistan’s foreign relaons and policies stand at great odds with the U.S. strategic interests. This divergence keeps the relaonship at a taccal level, not on a long‐term or strategic trajectory. This makes the prospects of U.S.‐Pakistan relaons pivong from “AFPAK” to the “Indo‐Pacific” slim. Riaz Khokhar is an Asia Studies Vising Fellow at the East‐West Center in Washington. He can be contact‐ ed at [email protected]. APB Series Founding Editor: Dr. Satu Limaye | APB Series Coordinator: Peter Valente The views expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the policy or position of the East-West Center or any organization with which the author is affiliated. The East-West Center promotes better relations and understanding among the people and nations of the United States, Asia, and the Pacific through cooperative study, research, and dialogue. Established by the US Congress in 1960, the Center serves as a resource for information and analysis on critical issues of common concern, bringing people together to exchange views, build expertise, and develop policy options. .
Load more

Recommended publications
  • The Question of Afghanistan and Its Impact on US Relations with Pakistan
    1 Draft, Please Do Not Copy without Explicit Permission from Author The Question of Afghanistan and its Impact on U.S. Relations with Pakistan: The Need for Pragmatic Engagement Abstract: Relations between the U.S. and Pakistan have always been cyclical, oscillating from collaboration and friendship to noncooperation and enmity. A core reason for this is a failure by consecutive American administration to understand the nature of the Pakistani political system, in which social groups are central. Accordingly, U.S. policymakers have expectations and make demands that often manifest through the rubric of democracy promotion. The paper identifies two key obstacles to democracy promotion in Pakistan: ungoverned territories and social identity groups. The section examines these elements in respect to Afghanistan. The reason for that is because the second section expands the argument by shifting attention to U.S. policymakers who appear to have place Afghanistan at the heart of U.S. engagement in South Asia. In doing so, it is argue that as long as Afghanistan remains key to U.S. national security concerns, American interaction with Pakistan remains limited because the relations are not about the U.S. and Pakistan per se, but rather on how Pakistan can help the U.S. meet its national security interests in Afghanistan. Students of history and politics quickly learn that nothing is certain nor absolute, as even definite and incontrovertible evidence may obscure deeper complexities that define inter-state relations, as far too often, common interests trump values. This may explain why foreign policy analysis tends to be grounded in case studies, and less in theoretical scrutiny.
    [Show full text]
  • The Afghanistan-Pakistan Wars, 2008–2009: Micro-Geographies, Conflict Diffusion, and Clusters of Violence
    The Afghanistan-Pakistan Wars, 2008–2009: Micro-geographies, Conflict Diffusion, and Clusters of Violence John O’Loughlin, Frank D. W. Witmer, and Andrew M. Linke1 Abstract: A team of political geographers analyzes over 5,000 violent events collected from media reports for the Afghanistan and Pakistan conflicts during 2008 and 2009. The violent events are geocoded to precise locations and the authors employ an exploratory spatial data analysis approach to examine the recent dynamics of the wars. By mapping the violence and examining its temporal dimensions, the authors explain its diffusion from traditional foci along the border between the two countries. While violence is still overwhelmingly concentrated in the Pashtun regions in both countries, recent policy shifts by the American and Pakistani gov- ernments in the conduct of the war are reflected in a sizeable increase in overall violence and its geographic spread to key cities. The authors identify and map the clusters (hotspots) of con- flict where the violence is significantly higher than expected and examine their shifts over the two-year period. Special attention is paid to the targeting strategy of drone missile strikes and the increase in their number and geographic extent by the Obama administration. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: H560, H770, O180. 15 figures, 1 table, 113 ref- erences. Key words: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Taliban, ­­Al- Qaeda, insurgency, Islamic terrorism, U.S. military, International Security Assistance Forces, Durand Line, Tribal Areas, Northwest Frontier Province, ACLED, NATO. merica’s “longest war” is now (August 2010) nearing its ninth anniversary. It was Alaunched in October 2001 as a “war of necessity” (Barack Obama, August 17, 2009) to remove the Taliban from power in Afghanistan, and thus remove the support of this regime for Al-Qaeda, the terrorist organization that carried out the September 2001 attacks in the United States.
    [Show full text]
  • The Pashtun Behavior Economy an Analysis of Decision Making in Tribal Society
    Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis and Dissertation Collection 2011-06 The Pashtun behavior economy an analysis of decision making in tribal society Holton, Jeremy W. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/5687 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS THE PASHTUN BEHAVIOR ECONOMY: AN ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN TRIBAL SOCIETY by Jeremy W. Holton June 2011 Thesis Advisor: Thomas H. Johnson Second Reader: Robert McNab Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED June 2011 Master‘s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE The Pashtun Behavior Economy: An Analysis of 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Decision Making in Tribal Society 6. AUTHOR(S) Jeremy W. Holton 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10.
    [Show full text]
  • Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent: a New Frontline in the Global Jihadist Movement?” the International Centre for Counter- Ter Rorism – the Hague 8, No
    AL-QAEDA IN THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT: The Nucleus of Jihad in South Asia THE SOUFAN CENTER JANUARY 2019 AL-QAEDA IN THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT: THE NUCLEUS OF JIHAD IN SOUTH ASIA !1 AL-QAEDA IN THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT: THE NUCLEUS OF JIHAD IN SOUTH ASIA AL-QAEDA IN THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT (AQIS): The Nucleus of Jihad in South Asia THE SOUFAN CENTER JANUARY 2019 !2 AL-QAEDA IN THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT: THE NUCLEUS OF JIHAD IN SOUTH ASIA CONTENTS List of Abbreviations 4 List of Figures & Graphs 5 Key Findings 6 Executive Summary 7 AQIS Formation: An Affiliate with Strong Alliances 11 AQIS Leadership 19 AQIS Funding & Finances 24 Wahhabization of South Asia 27 A Region Primed: Changing Dynamics in the Subcontinent 31 Global Threats Posed by AQIS 40 Conclusion 44 Contributors 46 About The Soufan Center (TSC) 48 Endnotes 49 !3 AL-QAEDA IN THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT: THE NUCLEUS OF JIHAD IN SOUTH ASIA LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AAI Ansar ul Islam Bangladesh ABT Ansar ul Bangla Team AFPAK Afghanistan and Pakistan Region AQC Al-Qaeda Central AQI Al-Qaeda in Iraq AQIS Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas HUJI Harkat ul Jihad e Islami HUJI-B Harkat ul Jihad e Islami Bangladesh ISI Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence ISKP Islamic State Khorasan Province JMB Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh KFR Kidnap for Randsom LeJ Lashkar e Jhangvi LeT Lashkar e Toiba TTP Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan !4 AL-QAEDA IN THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT: THE NUCLEUS OF JIHAD IN SOUTH ASIA LIST OF FIGURES & GRAPHS Figure 1: Map of South Asia 9 Figure 2:
    [Show full text]
  • Religion and Militancy in Pakistan and Afghanistan
    Religion and Militancy in Pakistan and Afghanistan in Pakistan and Militancy Religion a report of the csis program on crisis, conflict, and cooperation Religion and Militancy in Pakistan and Afghanistan a literature review 1800 K Street, NW | Washington, DC 20006 Project Director Tel: (202) 887-0200 | Fax: (202) 775-3199 Robert D. Lamb E-mail: [email protected] | Web: www.csis.org Author Mufti Mariam Mufti June 2012 ISBN 978-0-89206-700-8 CSIS Ë|xHSKITCy067008zv*:+:!:+:! CHARTING our future a report of the csis program on crisis, conflict, and cooperation Religion and Militancy in Pakistan and Afghanistan a literature review Project Director Robert L. Lamb Author Mariam Mufti June 2012 CHARTING our future About CSIS—50th Anniversary Year For 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has developed practical solutions to the world’s greatest challenges. As we celebrate this milestone, CSIS scholars continue to provide strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help decisionmakers chart a course toward a better world. CSIS is a bipartisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C. The Center’s 220 full-time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analysis and de- velop policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Since 1962, CSIS has been dedicated to finding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world. After 50 years, CSIS has become one of the world’s pre- eminent international policy institutions focused on defense and security; regional stability; and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate to global development and economic integration.
    [Show full text]
  • Buffer Zone, Colonial Enclave, Or Urban Hub?
    Working Paper no. 69 - Cities and Fragile States - BUFFER ZONE, COLONIAL ENCLAVE OR URBAN HUB? QUETTA :BETWEEN FOUR REGIONS AND TWO WARS Haris Gazdar, Sobia Ahmad Kaker, Irfan Khan Collective for Social Science Research February 2010 Crisis States Working Papers Series No.2 ISSN 1749-1797 (print) ISSN 1749-1800 (online) Copyright © H. Gazdar, S. Ahmad Kaker, I. Khan, 2010 24 Crisis States Working Paper Buffer Zone, Colonial Enclave or Urban Hub? Quetta: Between Four Regions and Two Wars Haris Gazdar, Sobia Ahmad Kaker and Irfan Khan Collective for Social Science Research, Karachi, Pakistan Quetta is a city with many identities. It is the provincial capital and the main urban centre of Balochistan, the largest but least populous of Pakistan’s four provinces. Since around 2003, Balochistan’s uneasy relationship with the federal state has been manifested in the form of an insurgency in the ethnic Baloch areas of the province. Within Balochistan, Quetta is the main shared space as well as a point of rivalry between the two dominant ethnic groups of the province: the Baloch and the Pashtun.1 Quite separately from the internal politics of Balochistan, Quetta has acquired global significance as an alleged logistic base for both sides in the war in Afghanistan. This paper seeks to examine different facets of Quetta – buffer zone, colonial enclave and urban hub − in order to understand the city’s significance for state building in Pakistan. State-building policy literature defines well functioning states as those that provide security for their citizens, protect property rights and provide public goods. States are also instruments of repression and the state-building process is often wrought with conflict and the violent suppression of rival ethnic and religious identities, and the imposition of extractive economic arrangements (Jones and Chandaran 2008).
    [Show full text]
  • Conceptualizing Afpak: the Prospects and Perils
    Asia Programme Paper: ASP PP 2010/01 Conceptualizing AfPak: The Prospects and Perils Ayesha R. Khan Associate Fellow, Asia Programme, Chatham House January 2010 The views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect the view of Chatham House, its staff, associates or Council. Chatham House is independent and owes no allegiance to any government or to any political body. It does not take institutional positions on policy issues. This document is issued on the understanding that if any extract is used, the author and Chatham House should be credited, preferably with the date of the publication. Programme Paper: ASP PP 2010/01 Conceptualizing AfPak: The Prospects and Perils EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Obama administration’s AfPak strategy has created the opportunity to recalibrate US engagement with Afghanistan and Pakistan to reverse the Taliban momentum and ‘disrupt and dismantle’ the terrorist threat from the border region. The strategy advocates an increase in US/NATO troops, reconciliation with ‘moderate’ Taliban, and a regional approach to the conflict that includes tackling the Taliban in Pakistan’s tribal areas. In its current conceptualization, it lacks implementation mechanisms and analysis of the border region to manage the insurgency and quell the violence. This paper analyses some of the contradictions, anomalies and structural flaws in the AfPak strategy that risk further destabilizing the Afghanistan–Pakistan border region. As part of the AfPak strategy, President Obama has ordered a ‘military surge’ of approximately 50,000 US troops to implement a shift from counterterrorism to counterinsurgency with an emphasis on the ‘clear, hold, build and engage’ strategy.
    [Show full text]
  • Style Attacks and the Threat from Lashkar-E-Taiba
    PROTECTING THE HOMELAND AGAINST MUMBAI- STYLE ATTACKS AND THE THREAT FROM LASHKAR-E-TAIBA HEARING BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON COUNTERTERRORISM AND INTELLIGENCE OF THE COMMITTEE ON HOMELAND SECURITY HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED THIRTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION JUNE 12, 2013 Serial No. 113–21 Printed for the use of the Committee on Homeland Security Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/ U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 85–686 PDF WASHINGTON : 2013 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2250 Mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402–0001 COMMITTEE ON HOMELAND SECURITY MICHAEL T. MCCAUL, Texas, Chairman LAMAR SMITH, Texas BENNIE G. THOMPSON, Mississippi PETER T. KING, New York LORETTA SANCHEZ, California MIKE ROGERS, Alabama SHEILA JACKSON LEE, Texas PAUL C. BROUN, Georgia YVETTE D. CLARKE, New York CANDICE S. MILLER, Michigan, Vice Chair BRIAN HIGGINS, New York PATRICK MEEHAN, Pennsylvania CEDRIC L. RICHMOND, Louisiana JEFF DUNCAN, South Carolina WILLIAM R. KEATING, Massachusetts TOM MARINO, Pennsylvania RON BARBER, Arizona JASON CHAFFETZ, Utah DONDALD M. PAYNE, JR., New Jersey STEVEN M. PALAZZO, Mississippi BETO O’ROURKE, Texas LOU BARLETTA, Pennsylvania TULSI GABBARD, Hawaii CHRIS STEWART, Utah FILEMON VELA, Texas RICHARD HUDSON, North Carolina STEVEN A. HORSFORD, Nevada STEVE DAINES, Montana ERIC SWALWELL, California SUSAN W. BROOKS, Indiana SCOTT PERRY, Pennsylvania MARK SANFORD, South Carolina GREG HILL, Chief of Staff MICHAEL GEFFROY, Deputy Chief of Staff/Chief Counsel MICHAEL S. TWINCHEK, Chief Clerk I. LANIER AVANT, Minority Staff Director SUBCOMMITTEE ON COUNTERTERRORISM AND INTELLIGENCE PETER T.
    [Show full text]
  • India's and Pakistan's Strategies in Afghanistan : Implications for the United States and the Region / Larry Hanauer, Peter Chalk
    CENTER FOR ASIA PACIFIC POLICY International Programs at RAND CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and EDUCATION AND THE ARTS decisionmaking through research and analysis. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service INFRASTRUCTURE AND of the RAND Corporation. TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY Support RAND SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Purchase this document TERRORISM AND Browse Reports & Bookstore HOMELAND SECURITY Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation occasional paper series. RAND occa- sional papers may include an informed perspective on a timely policy issue, a discussion of new research methodologies, essays, a paper presented at a conference, a conference summary, or a summary of work in progress. All RAND occasional papers undergo rigorous peer review to ensure that they meet high standards for research quality and objectivity.
    [Show full text]
  • Conditions for a Successful Transition in Afghanistan Post-2014
    DIIS REPORT Khalid Aziz Conditions for a Successful Transition in Afghanistan Post-2014 DIIS Report 2014:04 DIIS REPORT DIIS . DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES 1 DIIS REPORT 2014:04 © Copenhagen 2014, the author and DIIS Danish Institute for International Studies, DIIS Østbanegade 117, DK 2100 Copenhagen Ph: +45 32 69 87 87 Fax: +45 32 69 87 00 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.diis.dk Layout: Allan Lind Jørgensen Printed in Denmark by Vesterkopi AS ISBN 978-87-7605-659-9 (print) ISBN 978-87-7605-660-5 (pdf ) Price: DKK 50.00 (VAT included) DIIS publications can be downloaded free of charge from www.diis.dk Hardcopies can be ordered at www.diis.dk Khalid Aziz, Chairman Regional Institute of Policy Research & Training (RIPORT) [email protected] 2 DIIS REPORT 2014:04 Contents Abbreviations and Glossary 5 Chapter 1 7 Introduction 7 Framing of Issues 9 Chapter 2 13 Afghanistan in the Grip of the Great Game 13 Drivers of Instability in the AfPak Region 15 The Great Game and Creation of Pakistan 17 Nature of Pakistan–Afghan Relations 21 Pakistan’s Drift Towards Radicalization 25 Multiple Wars in Afghanistan 32 Recent Regional Developments 37 Chapter 3. Unfinished State Building in Pakistani FATA 39 Situational Analysis 39 Characteristics of FATA 40 System of Administration 40 Constitutional Position of FATA 42 Underdevelopment of FATA 43 Causes of the Rise of Militancy 44 Pakistani Society’s Sympathy for Militants 47 The Way Forward 49 Chapter 4 52 Security Transition and Reconciliation with the Taliban 52 Chapter 5 58 Amity between
    [Show full text]
  • Pakistani Taliban January 2013
    Issues Paper The Pakistani Taliban January 2013 Contents 1. TERMINOLOGY ................................................................................................................ 2 2. HISTORICAL OVERVIEW .............................................................................................. 2 3. GROUPS ............................................................................................................................... 4 3.1 Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) ..................................................................................... 4 3.1.1 Organisation .................................................................................................................. 4 3.1.2 Tribes and Tribal Infighting .......................................................................................... 6 3.1.3 Recruitment ................................................................................................................... 7 3.1.4 Area of Influence .......................................................................................................... 8 3.1.5 Aims .............................................................................................................................. 9 3.1.6 Connections................................................................................................................. 13 3.2 Muqami Tehrik-e-Taliban (MTT).................................................................................. 14 3.2.1 The Mullah Nazir Group ............................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • How Al-Qaeda Survived Drones, Uprisings,And the Islamic State
    How al-Qaeda Survived Drones, Uprisings,and the Islamic State THE NATURE OF THE CURRENT THREAT Aaron Y. Zelin, Editor “Al-Qaeda and its affiliate organizations never stopped being a primary terrorism concern for me, for the U.S. intelligence community, and for the broader counterter- rorism community. Not a day has gone by in my entire tenure at NCTC where our emphasis on al-Qaeda has been anything less than a top priority. That’s the beauty of working on terrorism issues. You get the privilege of having multiple top priorities.” —Nicholas Rasmussen Director, National Counterterrorism Center, comments at The Washington Institute March 1, 2017 How al-Qaeda Survived Drones, Uprisings,and the Islamic State THE NATURE OF THE CURRENT THREAT Aaron Y. Zelin EDITOR THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY www.washingtoninstitute.org The opinions expressed in this Policy Focus are those of the authors and not necessarily those of The Washington Institute, its Board of Trustees, or its Board of Advisors. Policy Focus 153 First publication June 2017 All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. © 2017 by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 11111 19th Street NW, Suite 500 Washington, DC 20036 www.washingtoninstitute.org Design: 1000colors Contents ACKNOWLEDGMENTS | v ABOUT THE WORKSHOP | vi CONTRIBUTORS | viii KEY AL-QAEDA-RELATED EVENTS, 2009–17 | xii ■ OVERALL THREAT Introduction AARON Y.
    [Show full text]