DOCSLIB.ORG

A Qualitative Model of Patterns of Resilience and Vulnerability in Responding to a Pandemic Outbreak with System Dynamics

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
A Qualitative Model of Patterns of Resilience and Vulnerability in Responding to a Pandemic Outbreak with System Dynamics Safety Science 134 (2021) 105077 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Safety Science journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/safety A qualitative model of patterns of resilience and vulnerability in responding to a pandemic outbreak with system dynamics Tom Kontogiannis Department of Production Engineering & Management, Technical University of Crete, Chania, Crete GR 73100, Greece ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Keywords: Covid-19 has revealed the fragility of healthcare, government, social support and economic systems. The Covid-19 complexity of interactions and the tight coupling of these systems have become evident during the spread of the Emergencies disease and the evolution of policies that produced unintended migrating effects. Striving for efficiency most System dynamics systems have abandoned resilience principles against disturbances. In this article, systemic risk is viewed within Archetypes a system dynamics framework complemented by a resilience perspective in anticipating threats and making Causal loop diagrams Resilience provisions for resources, responding in the face of uncertainty and foreseeing side-effects, monitoring critical Preparedness indicators to assess progress and learning by doing. Earlier system dynamics models focused on the epidemio­ logical micro-level, hence, losing sight of the wider social and the economic landscape that affect the control of the disease. This article expands this model-based approach by looking into the capacity of the healthcare to pace with the surge of patients, the role of governments in mobilizing individuals and organizations, the diffusion of risk information to the general public and so on. The relationships between the healthcare, government, social support and economic systems are presented with the use of system archetypes and leverage points for over­ coming bottlenecks. Finally, the archetypes are assembled into an overall causal loop diagram that has impli­ cations for policies and behavioral patterns. 1. Introduction capabilities into more efficientsectors, relying on ‘just-in-time’ policies that minimize redundancies and slack, increasing dependence on sup­ The Covid-19 pandemic has brought into the foreground the fragility plies that could be produced cheaper abroad, and tightening task se­ of many fundamental man-made systems. At the level of healthcare, we quences that leave little margin for recovery. This ‘faster-cheaper- have witnessed many disruptions in the capacity of facilities (i.e., labs/ tighter’ cycle of operations has produced highly profitable yet fragile testing, hospital beds), significant delays in supply chains (i.e., protec­ supply lines whose disruptions could have far reaching effects (Hynes tive clothing, medical instruments), and staff shortages (i.e., nurses, et al. 2020). Resilience acknowledges that several disruptions can occur clinicians, support staff) among others. At a wider level, a vicious mix of for which production systems should have the capacity to recover and supply and demand fluctuations gave rise to cascading problems in adapt in order to ensure their survival into the future. The ability to production, financial, and transportation systems. Although most maintain slack resources can diminish the impact of events as well as countries applied swift policies to interrupt the spread of the virus and provoke adaptive responses (Bryce et al., 2020). Resilience focuses on mitigate its impact, huge economic damage has already been done in the capability of systems to anticipate, absorb and recover from a wide terms of loss of production, rising unemployment and income loss range of threats. (Collins et al. 2020). Despite their stringent measures and best efforts to What makes covid-19 different from other pandemics is its appear­ ameliorate economic damage, the pandemic has already produced sig­ ance in a complicated web of interconnected production systems where nificant short-term impacts that are likely to worsen in the near future. small disruptions can cascade in unfamiliar ways. In highly coupled and Striving for efficiency and optimization, healthcare and other sys­ complex systems, problems may manifest quickly or unexpectedly and tems have abandoned resilience principles against disturbances whose could migrate over multiple sectors and social boundaries, making it impact may leave businesses, governments and the public in a weakened difficult for crisis management systems to control the situation and state (Gereff, G. 2020). Optimization meant concentrating industrial sustain business continuity. Early government responses to contain the E-mail address: [email protected]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2020.105077 Received 29 June 2020; Received in revised form 11 September 2020; Accepted 23 October 2020 Available online 10 November 2020 0925-7535/© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. T. Kontogiannis Safety Science 134 (2021) 105077 pandemic with strict lockdown policies had substantial impact on the that anticipating the incidence of these factors is different than esti­ economy in terms of reduced production, minimum consumer spending, mating their potential impact on infection rates assessed by quantitative growing unemployment and with multiple households on the brink of models. Many studies have argued that when these models are inte­ bankruptcy (Nicola, et al., 2020). grated into the epidemiological models, quantitative models will be in a An important challenge to managing systemic risk is modelling the better position to cover a wide ranges of critical interventions or system as a complex web of individuals and institutions with often leverage points to control the disease (van Bavel et al. 2020; Eaton and different perspectives and sometimes conflicting goals. A resilience Kalichman 2020; West et al., 2020). approach anticipates that many potential threats cannot be sufficiently The first objective of this article has been to unravel the nexus of predicted, nor can their effects be fully comprehended. A resilience social and institutional forces that affect the parameters of ‘system dy­ mindset implies rethinking priorities and especially the sacrifices made namics’ models by means of causal loop diagrams (CLDs) which have the in the face of optimization and efficiency. ‘Systems thinking’ has been ability to uncover the underlying feedback structures and leverage applied to modelling complex systems as networks of actors with points in a system (Bures, 2017; Garrity, 2018). In addition, causal loop emergent interactions and uncontrolled events migrating to other areas modelling has been widely applied in healthcare research (Rees et al., (Richardson, 2005; Rusoja et al., 2018). Systems thinking can become a 2018; Littlejohns et al, 2018). In this sense, it is interesting to examine powerful modelling tool so long as it is complemented with a resilience the capacity of healthcare systems to pace with the surge of patients, the viewpoint. mobilization of economic agents in the production of hospital supplies, The severity of the covid-19 situation has created a large research the role of governments in mobilizing individuals and organizations, the output in terms of quantitative models of the transmission of virus, the diffusion of risk information to the healthcare system and the general recovery and the fatality rates as different suppression and mitigation public and so on. Quantitative models can have significantcontributions policies have been tried out by governments. A similar approach has but they reduce the complexity of the world into a limited number of been adopted by many system dynamics studies in their efforts to make dimensions (Hulme, 2020). So it is worth investing, not only on aspects predictions of the impact of various mitigation strategies in the control of our experience that can be expressed numerically, but also on of the pandemic (Ghaffarzadegan and Rahmandad, 2020; Homer, 2020; exploring more subtle aspects of social reality that are not so easily Struben, 2020; Bordehore et al., 2020; Venkateswaran and Damani, quantifiableand pertain to collective societal responses in the control of 2020). System dynamics models have relied mostly on epidemiological the disease. It is interesting therefore to examine the sorts of leverage and human biology models regarding the rate of infection, the contact points that can be deducted from the integration of a variety of quali­ rate, the availability of medical resources and so on. These parameters tative models. remain hidden until more data become available which provides a basis The second objective of this article has been to use an old ‘systems for refining the models. Hence, quantitative models make use of his­ thinking’ method (i.e. Causal Loop Diagrams, CLDs) and try to model torical trends to make projections about the future. new resilience-based approaches in the control of the disease. Resilience By focusing on the micro-level, however, these quantitative models has commonly been definedas ‘the ability of organizations and systems have lost sight of the wider social and the economic landscape that af­ to recover quickly from difficultiesand attacks and regain their original fects the evolution of the disease. More questions should be addressed to functions’ (Hollnagel, 2011; Woods, 2015). Mitchell et al. (2020) have enhance our understanding of the disease and examine potential in­ provided a summary of resilience principles that could be considered in terventions or ‘leverage points’. Hence, it is important to incorporate
Load more

Recommended publications
  • A Complex Systems Approach to Perceptions of Obesity in Service Users, Health Care Practitioners and Policy Makers
    A Complex Systems Approach to Perceptions of Obesity in Service Users, Health Care Practitioners and Policy Makers by Sarah Frood B.Sc., University of Calgary, 2008 Research Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in the Department of Biomedical Physiology and Kinesiology Faculty of Science © Sarah Frood 2013 SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY Fall 2013 Approval Name: Sarah Frood Degree: Master of Science Title of Thesis: A Complex Systems Approach to Perceptions of Obesity in Service Users, Health Care Practitioners and Policy Makers Examining Committee: Chair: Michael Walsh Lecturer Diane Finegood Senior Supervisor Professor Andrew Wister Supervisor Professor Carrie Matteson Supervisor Research Associate Sara Kirk Supervisor Professor School of Health and Human Performance Dalhousie University Laurie Goldsmith External Examiner Assistant Professor Faculty of Health Science Date Defended/Approved: August 14th, 2013 ii Partial Copyright Licence iii Ethics Statement iv Abstract Current research supports the complexity of obesity and the need for collaboration between sectors to create change, yet there is still a pervasive perception that individuals are to blame for their weight. The Applied Research Collaborations for Health Research group, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia conducted key informant interviews to examine the beliefs of service users, health practitioners and policy makers regarding obesity. These data were used to conduct a secondary analysis using qualitative analysis methodology to explore perceptions of obesity within a complex systems framework. Three major themes were common among participant groups. There was a desire for immediate results, a focus on individual blame and a resultant tension for change. Exploring these themes using a complex system lens demonstrated the importance of engaging contradictory groups to work together in a collaborative framework.
    [Show full text]
  • S&T Major Group Position Paper for the 2021 HLPF
    S&T Major Group position paper for the 2021 HLPF Sustainable and resilient recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic that promotes the economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainable development: building an inclusive and effective path for the achievement of the 2030 Agenda in the context of the decade of action and delivery for sustainable development First draft v. 20.04.2021 The launch of the Decade of Action and Delivery for Sustainable Development in 2020 recognises that the world has 10 years to meet the 17 sustainability goals. However, 2020 was also marked by the COVID-19 pandemic which has been called one of the ‘most challenging crisis humanity has faced since World War II’1 by the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Besides generating massive adverse health and socio-economic impacts for societies around the globe, the COVID-19 pandemic has further exposed inequality in vulnerability to shocks among the poor and marginalized, feeding off existing inequalities and exacerbating them2, undermining the aspiration of “leaving no-one behind”. Economic gains and opportunities continue to be unequally distributed, while costs and impacts associated with climate change and biodiversity destruction are increasing exponentially and affecting disproportionately the most vulnerable and poor particularly in low- income countries. The COVID-19 pandemic has furthermore laid bare the integrated nature of human development, well-being and planetary health and the profound reliance of human societies on a healthy and resilient biosphere providing suitable living conditions3. The pandemic is merely a symptom of the devastating impacts of anthropogenic activities on natural ecosystems in a world characterised by complex interactions of globalized networks of travel and trade, densely populated urban areas, compounded by ecological habitat and land-use change, and climate change, resulting in increased human-wildlife interactions4.
    [Show full text]
  • Transformations)
    TRANSFORMACJE (TRANSFORMATIONS) Transformacje (Transformations) is an interdisciplinary refereed, reviewed journal, published since 1992. The journal is devoted to i.a.: civilizational and cultural transformations, information (knowledge) societies, global problematique, sustainable development, political philosophy and values, future studies. The journal's quasi-paradigm is TRANSFORMATION - as a present stage and form of development of technology, society, culture, civilization, values, mindsets etc. Impacts and potentialities of change and transition need new methodological tools, new visions and innovation for theoretical and practical capacity-building. The journal aims to promote inter-, multi- and transdisci- plinary approach, future orientation and strategic and global thinking. Transformacje (Transformations) are internationally available – since 2012 we have a licence agrement with the global database: EBSCO Publishing (Ipswich, MA, USA) We are listed by INDEX COPERNICUS since 2013 I TRANSFORMACJE(TRANSFORMATIONS) 3-4 (78-79) 2013 ISSN 1230-0292 Reviewed journal Published twice a year (double issues) in Polish and English (separate papers) Editorial Staff: Prof. Lech W. ZACHER, Center of Impact Assessment Studies and Forecasting, Kozminski University, Warsaw, Poland ([email protected]) – Editor-in-Chief Prof. Dora MARINOVA, Sustainability Policy Institute, Curtin University, Perth, Australia ([email protected]) – Deputy Editor-in-Chief Prof. Tadeusz MICZKA, Institute of Cultural and Interdisciplinary Studies, University of Silesia, Katowice, Poland ([email protected]) – Deputy Editor-in-Chief Dr Małgorzata SKÓRZEWSKA-AMBERG, School of Law, Kozminski University, Warsaw, Poland ([email protected]) – Coordinator Dr Alina BETLEJ, Institute of Sociology, John Paul II Catholic University of Lublin, Poland Dr Mirosław GEISE, Institute of Political Sciences, Kazimierz Wielki University, Bydgoszcz, Poland (also statistical editor) Prof.
    [Show full text]
  • Veselova, Emilija; Hodson, Elise; Berglund, Eeva; Erdogan Öztekin, Elif
    This is an electronic reprint of the original article. This reprint may differ from the original in pagination and typographic detail. Gaziulusoy, Idil; Veselova, Emilija; Hodson, Elise; Berglund, Eeva; Erdogan Öztekin, Elif ; Houtbeckers, Eeva; Hernberg, Hella; Jalas, Mikko; Fodor, Kata; Ferreira Litowtschenko, Maria Design for Sustainability Transformations: A ‘Deep Leverage Points’ Research Agenda for the (Post-)pandemic Context Published in: Strategic Design Research Journal DOI: 10.4013/sdrj.2021.141.02 Published: 09/04/2021 Document Version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Published under the following license: CC BY Please cite the original version: Gaziulusoy, I., Veselova, E., Hodson, E., Berglund, E., Erdogan Öztekin, E., Houtbeckers, E., Hernberg, H., Jalas, M., Fodor, K., & Ferreira Litowtschenko, M. (2021). Design for Sustainability Transformations: A ‘Deep Leverage Points’ Research Agenda for the (Post-)pandemic Context. Strategic Design Research Journal, 14(1), 19-31. https://doi.org/10.4013/sdrj.2021.141.02 This material is protected by copyright and other intellectual property rights, and duplication or sale of all or part of any of the repository collections is not permitted, except that material may be duplicated by you for your research use or educational purposes in electronic or print form. You must obtain permission for any other use. Electronic or print copies may not be offered, whether for sale or otherwise to anyone who is not an authorised user. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org) Design for Sustainability Transformations: A Deep Leverage Points Research Agenda for the (Post-)pandemic Context İdil Gaziulusoy a * | Emilija Veselova a | Elise Hodson a | Eeva Berglund a Elif Erdoğan Öztekin a | Eeva Houtbeckers a | Hella Hernberg a | Mikko Jalas a Kata Fodor a | Maria Ferreira a a Aalto University, NODUS Sustainable Design Research Group, Department of Design, School of Art, Design and Architecture: Espoo, Finland.
    [Show full text]
  • Leverage Points for Focus Flow and Communitas
    Leverage Points for Focus Flow and Communitas Downloaded from: https://research.chalmers.se, 2021-09-26 05:27 UTC Citation for the original published paper (version of record): Penzenstadler, B. (2020) Leverage Points for Focus Flow and Communitas ACM International Conference Proceeding Series: 267-274 http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3401335.3401826 N.B. When citing this work, cite the original published paper. research.chalmers.se offers the possibility of retrieving research publications produced at Chalmers University of Technology. It covers all kind of research output: articles, dissertations, conference papers, reports etc. since 2004. research.chalmers.se is administrated and maintained by Chalmers Library (article starts on next page) Leverage Points for Focus Flow and Communitas Birgit Penzenstadler [email protected] Chalmers|Gothenburg University Göteborg, Sweden Lappenranta Lahti University of Technology Lappenranta, Finland ABSTRACT informing people to advertising, which added a pushing factor that Society is running at a high pace, and with it the hamster wheel we spiraled out of control, and we even do it in academia now. For sometimes perceive ourselves to be in. In more scientific terms, this example, when we look at calls for participation that get pushed is called cognitive overload in combination with artificial deadline all over mailing lists and social media - and I have been part of pressure. There is a notion of overwhelm in combination with the problem, having been publicity chair at too many conferences, perceived time scarcity in terms of the cognitive load of individuals. trying to increase submission rates in an effort to create a good However, if we as individuals are not living in a sustainable way, program.
    [Show full text]
  • Managing the Earth System
    1 Our responsibilities for managing the Earth system Alan K Betts Atmospheric Research Pittsford, VT 05763 December 8, 2010 Summary: A change of mindset is needed in our management of the Earth system 1. Introduction The classic paper by Donella Meadows1 identified twelve leverage points for intervention in complex systems, and concluded that effective intervention required a change of paradigm or mind-set. Human society needs such a change of collective mind-set in relation to the earth system, because it is on an unsustainable path in a world of limited resources. I am sure you are all familiar in broad outline with where we are and how we got there. The discovery of fossil fuels gave us (briefly in geological time) vastly increased energy supplies and wealth, and this has led to both a rapid growth in the human population and in the human consumption of natural resources. The industrial world quickly developed a very human-centered mind-set based on economic and consumer growth; while medical and scientific advances and fossil-fuel based agriculture led to rapid population growth. We quickly lost our social appreciation for the Earth’s ecosystem of which we are a dependent part; and failed to foresee the impact on the stability of the Earth system of the rapid growth of the waste products of our industrial society. In efforts to maximize growth, without an explicit set of rules for managing the earth system, we have crossed or are about to cross many critical thresholds for the earth system2. It is challenging to estimate the carrying capacity of the planet3, but some have argued that given our growing population and consumption (and global inequity), the Earth’s carrying capacity has already passed.
    [Show full text]
  • Key Advantages of the Leverage Points Perspective to Shape Human-Nature Relations
    Ecosystems and People ISSN: (Print) (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/tbsm22 Key advantages of the leverage points perspective to shape human-nature relations Maraja Riechers, Jacqueline Loos, Ágnes Balázsi, Marina García-Llorente, Claudia Bieling, Aracely Burgos-Ayala, Leila Chakroun, Thomas J.M. Mattijssen, Maximilian M. Muhr, Irene Pérez-Ramírez, Kaisa J. Raatikainen, Sakshi Rana, Miles Richardson, Linda Rosengren & Simon West To cite this article: Maraja Riechers, Jacqueline Loos, Ágnes Balázsi, Marina García- Llorente, Claudia Bieling, Aracely Burgos-Ayala, Leila Chakroun, Thomas J.M. Mattijssen, Maximilian M. Muhr, Irene Pérez-Ramírez, Kaisa J. Raatikainen, Sakshi Rana, Miles Richardson, Linda Rosengren & Simon West (2021) Key advantages of the leverage points perspective to shape human-nature relations, Ecosystems and People, 17:1, 205-214, DOI: 10.1080/26395916.2021.1912829 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/26395916.2021.1912829 © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Informa Published online: 25 Apr 2021. UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 667 View related articles View Crossmark data Citing articles: 1 View citing articles Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=tbsm22 ECOSYSTEMS AND PEOPLE 2021, VOL. 17, NO. 1, 205–214 https://doi.org/10.1080/26395916.2021.1912829 PERSPECTIVE: HUMAN-NATURE CONNECTEDNESS AS LEVERAGE POINT Key advantages of the leverage points perspective to shape human-nature relations Maraja Riechers a, Jacqueline Loos a, Ágnes Balázsi b, Marina García-Llorente c,d, Claudia Bieling e,#, Aracely Burgos-Ayala c,f, Leila Chakroun g, Thomas J.M.
    [Show full text]
  • Knowledge-Based Organizations Working Toward Sustainability
    Scaling-up Impact: Knowledge-based Organizations Working Toward Sustainability David Adema, Sara Blenkhorn and Sarah Houseman School of Engineering Blekinge Institute of Technology Karlskrona, Sweden 2009 Thesis submitted for completion of Master of Strategic Leadership Towards Sustainability, Blekinge Institute of Technology, Karlskrona, Sweden. Abstract: Human society faces serious environmental and social threats as a result of systemic unsustainable actions and values. This is a time of cultural self- evaluation and profound change. This study examines how 13 social and environmental change-based organizations, through network partnerships and a robust organizational knowledge-base, are responding to these challenges. A systems perspective was used as a guide to promote a holistic understanding of the actors within the system, their perceptions of success, strategies, actions and tools used to guide them toward sustainability. The results indicate that organizations seeking to scale-up their impact toward sustainability might benefit from the following success factors: 1. Collaboration with diverse partners to contribute to more effective interventions in complex systems, 2. Integrating comprehensive definitions of sustainability with organizational vision to facilitate success, 3. The application of leverage points and transparent prioritization processes to asure congruence between organizational purpose and actions, 4. Practices of dialogue and deep listening build rewarding partnerships and, 5. Metrics that support partnerships
    [Show full text]
  • Systems Thinking 3
    Systems Thinking 3 Contents Welcome ................................................................................................................................................. 2 Classic Theory Discussion ........................................................................................................................ 3 A. Systems Approach to Preventing and Responding to COVID-19 ................................................ 3 B. Dr Russell L Ackoff ....................................................................................................................... 4 Ideas ........................................................................................................................................................ 5 A. Causal Loop Diagrams ................................................................................................................. 5 B. Leverage in System Interventions ............................................................................................... 5 Controversy Corner ................................................................................................................................. 7 Systems Theory and Evaluation .............................................................................................................. 8 A. Bench to Bedside ........................................................................................................................ 8 B. Policy Evaluation – The Magenta Book ......................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Systems Thinking and WASH
    Systems Thinking and WASH ${protocol}://www.developmentbookshelf.com/doi/book/10.3362/9781780447483 - Monday, March 18, 2019 8:53:56 PM IP Address:2a02:8428:1a6:8401:49aa:6209:a8fa:e9fe Praise for this book ‘If you think systems thinking is all waffle and hand-waving, think again. Kate Neely has pulled together a lucid and convincing account that shows how thinking in systems makes you smarter and more effective in getting water and sanitation into the hands of communities around the world. Systems Thinking and WASH is full of useful tools, applied to real life settings, and fleshes out a number of developmental buzzwords – resilience, adaptive management – with real practical content. A very useful book indeed.’ Dr Duncan Green, Senior Strategic Adviser, Oxfam ‘Systems thinking and WASH lives up to its title by supporting the reader to deepen our understanding of complex systems and to reframe both the wicked and the everyday challenges in the WASH sector.’ Angela Huston, WASH Systems specialist, IRC WASH ‘With interest growing in applying systems approaches to the challenges of supplying sustainable water and sanitation services, this book presents a very welcome, timely and accessible compilation of real world experiences in diverse settings. Well worth a read for anyone wondering what systems approaches are; what tools and approaches are out there; and whether and how to apply them.’ Dr Patrick Moriarty, Chief Executive Officer, IRC ${protocol}://www.developmentbookshelf.com/doi/book/10.3362/9781780447483 - Monday, March 18, 2019
    [Show full text]
  • Education, Require Developing a Different Kind of Mindset and Expertise That Can Deal with the Scale, Intricacy, and Interconnectedness of These Problems
    HABIB UNIVERSITY Uncovering Designed Ecologies: Thinking in Systems "There is no whole system without an interconnection of its parts and there is no whole system without an environment." - Francisco Varela [Summer 2018] [TBD] [TBD] Instructor: Ahmed Ansari [email protected], +92 321 2971709 Timings & Venue: 9am-12pm, Tuesdays & Thursdays, Playground Office Hours & Venue: Wednesdays, 12pm-3pm, E- 114 in D block or playground Course LMS URL: -- Course Prerequisites: None Content Area: Systems Theory, Complexity Theory, Futures & Forecasting I. Rationale: Unlike simple problems, like figuring out how to debug and optimize a piece of code or designing an aesthetically pleasing, useful and usable product, wicked problems, like rising inner city crime, rural to urban flight, or falling standards in lower education, require developing a different kind of mindset and expertise that can deal with the scale, intricacy, and interconnectedness of these problems. As the distinctions between the natural world, built environment, and culture and society become increasingly blurry, and as the role of designers expands from dealing with straightforward, simple problems to tackling larger systemic issues, we can also no longer talk about design outside of its role in determining the shape and form of these systems, models of aspects of the world that can articulate and guide intentional, planned change. This course intends to introduce participants to concepts, approaches and methods in applied systems and complexity theory. We will explore different ways of observing, analyzing, and describing socio-technical systems, with a view to then being able to determine where best to intervene in them, and determine what the nature of those interventions, whether they are artifacts, services, experiences, environments or platforms, should be.
    [Show full text]
  • A Guide to Complexity Theory and Systems Thinking for Integrated Water Resources Research and Management
    (Leave space A guide to complexity theory and systems thinking for integrated water resources research and management Report to the Water Research Commission by Sharon Pollard1 Derick du Toit1 2 Harry Biggs 1 Association for Water and rural Development (AWARD), Acornhoek 2 SANParks, Scientific Services, Skukuza Progress in and barriers to the internalization of complexity in integrated water resources management: a scoping and synthesis of early lessons and a way forward WRC Report No. KV 277/11 ISBN 978-1-4312-0162-4 October 2011 An overview of complexity The publication of this report emanates from a WRC project titled A guide to complexity theory and system thinking for integrated water resources research and management (WRC Project No. K8/854). DISCLAIMER This report has been reviewed by the Water Research Commission (WRC) and approved for publication. Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily reflects the views and policies of the WRC, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. ii An overview of complexity Executive summary The objective of this consultancy was to explore progress in and barriers to the internalization of complexity in integrated water resources management, and to do this through a scoping synthesis of early lessons. In essence then the report seeks to provide a guide to complexity for Integrated Water Resources Management and research endeavours based on the issues identified from interviews with key stakeholders. In these interviews with academics and practitioners, a number of issues were raised regarding the internalisation of complexity and we hope that these have been addressed.
    [Show full text]