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Internationaltropicaltim Distr. GENERAL PPR 65/01(M) ITTO Original: ENGLISH INTERNATIONALTROPICALTIMBER ORGANIZATION PRE-PROJECT REPORT A STUDYON THE MEDIUMAND LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FORTHE TROPICAL TIMBER MARKET [PPD 27/99 (M)] PREPARED FOR ITTO BY LTS INTERNATIONAL LTD. OCTOBER 2001 The Medium and Long-term Outlook forthe Tropical Timber Market I . EXECUTI VE SUMMARY ............................................................................................. I I . I MODELLING. ................................................................................................................. I. .. 1.2 DATA SOURCESAND VERIFICAnON .................................................................................... 2. I . 3 RESULTS .......,............................................................................................................. 2 .. 1.4 MAJOR FACTORS IN THE GLOBAL SUPPLY OF TROPICAL TIMBER PRODUCTS. ................................... 3 I . 5 TRENDS. ...................................................................................................................... 6 .. 1.6 SUMMARYFOR PRODUCER COUNTRIES. .......,....................................................................... 7. 1.7 SUMMARYFOR CONSUMER COUNTRIES. ............................................................................... 7. 1.8 GLOBAL DEMAND FOR TROPICAL TIMBER PRODUCTS. ......,........................................................ Z 1.9 MAIN SCENARIOS FOR SUPPLYAND DEMAND TRENDS. ............................................................. 7 2. BACKGROUND. ..................................................................................................... I O 3. METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................._..... I I 3 . I SERA nFiCA nON. .................................................................,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, I', 3 . 2 COUNTR Y SUR VEYS ...................................................................................................... I 2 3 . 3 MODELLING CONCEPT. .......................................................................................,.......... I 3 3 . 4 DESCRIPTION OF MODELS. ............................,..........................,........,............................. 14 3.5 DATA SOURCESAND VERIFICATION, ................................................................................. 1.6 4 . RESUL TS .............................................................................................................. I 8 4. I OVER VIEW ..............................................................................,.................................. 1.8 4 . 2 COUNTR Y REPORTS. ..................,.................................................................................. I. 9 4 . 2. I BOLIVIA ........................................................................................................... 2 I. 4 . 2. 2 BRAZIL ............................................................................................................. 23 4 . 2. 3 CAMER 00N ..................................................................................................... 25 4. 2. 4 CONGO REPUBLIC. ....,...................................................................................... 26 4 . 2. 5 ECUA DOR ........................................................................................................ 28 4 . 2. 6 GABON ............................................................................................................ 30 4 . 2. 7 GHANA .......................................................................,.................................... 3 I. 4 . 2. 8 MALA YSIA ........................................................................................................ 32 4 . 2. 9 THAILAND ..................................................................................................,.... 35 4 . 2. I 0 CHINA .......................................................................................................... 3 7 4 . 2. I I INDIA ..,.........................,......................................................................,....... 4 O 4 . 2. I 2 GERMANY. .................................................................................................... 43 4 . 2. I 3 ITA L Y ........................................................................................................... 4 5 4 . 2, I 4 JAPAN ..........................................,....,.......................................................... 4 7 4 . 2. I 5 NETHERLANDS. ............................................................................................. 50 4 . 2. I 6 SPAIN ........................................................................................................... 51. 4 . 2. I 7 USA .............................................................................................................. 54 4.3 GLOBAL SUPPLYSITUAnON FOR TROPICAL TIMBER PRODUCTS. ............................................... 56 4.3. I MCIjor supply factors identified. .,..................................................................... 57 4. 3.2 Export trends for the inojor tropical forest products ....................................... 68 S@w" timber ................................................................................................................ 68 Plywood and panel products. ...................................................................................... 68 4.4 GLOBAL DEMAND FOR TROPICAL TIMBER PRODUCTS. ............................................................. 69 4. 4. I Import trends for the major tropical forest products. ...................................... 69 5. DISCUSSIONOFSTUDYFINDINGSANDSCENARIOSFORSUPPLYANDDEMAND TRENDS To 20 I 0 .............................................................................................................. 7 I 5. I . I Bw sin ess OS u s " o1 ............................................................................................ 72 5. I . 2 S" stomable supply. .......................................................................................... 73 5. 1.3 Individu@/ country scen@nos. ...................................................................,.,..... Z4 APPENDICES A1. List of key source contacts A2. Data collection sheet A3. General structure of the model A4. Stratification by 12 country groups A5. Stratification by tropical and non-tropical country groups A6. Stratification by region A7. Distribution of tropical timber imports and exports between country groups A8. Trade statistics for major producer and consumer countries List of Abbreviations AAC Annual allowable cut AIMEX Associacao Brasiliero do Industria de Madera Processado- Mecanicamente A1TBT Association Technique Internationale de Bois Tropicaux ASEAN Association of SE. Asian Nations AsL Small, individual operators (Bolivia) C + I Criteria and Indicators CERFOR Forest certification scheme - Brazil ENGO Environmental Non-Governmental Organisation EU European Union FAO Food and Agricultural Organisation FAS Free along side FDl Foreign Direct Investment FOB Free on board FSC Forest Stewardship Council FSFM Forest Sector Framework Model FSVAM Forest SectorValue Added Model GDP Gross Domestic Product GFPM Global Forest Products Model ha hectares HDF High Density Fibreboard IBAMA Institute for Natural Resources and the Environment (Brazil) IMF International Monetary Fund ITFMP Indonesia Tropical Forest Management Project ITFO International Tropical Timber Organisation LKS Lesser Known Species in cubic metres in 31a Cubic metres per annum MAI Mean Annual Increment MBl Market Based Instruments MDF Medium Density Fibreboard min millimetre n/a not available NFAP National Forest Action Plan NTCC National Timber Certification Council(Malaysia) OSB Oriented Strand Board PEFC Pan-European Forest Certification PNG Papua New Guinea rule Roundwood equivalent SFl Sustainable Forest Initiative SFM Sustainable Forest Management spp Species STCP STCP Project Engineering Ltd TCO Indigenous groups UFA Unite Forestere d'Amenagement(long term concessions - Cameroon) usD United States Dollars UsDA United States Department of Agriculture The Medium and Long-term Outlook forthe Tropical Timber Market I. EXECUTIVESUMMARY The study is primarily concerned with tropical timber used for sawn timber and wood- based panel production. The marketforthese products is more or less worldwide, and tropical timber products are in competition with other types of timber, especially temperate hardwoods, in many consumer countries. It is therefore not possible to make a realistic estimate of the likely future demand fortropicaltimber products without considering the global market, and the potential supply of competing products. In order to assess the factors that are affecting global supply and demand fortropical timber products, it was felt important to visit as many countries as possible in the time allowed forthe study. This meantthatthe time spent in each country was limited and consequently it has only been possible to develop brief overviews for each country. In total, 17 countries were visited, of which eight were producers and nine were consumers of tropical timber. The objective of these country visits was to collect data to facilitate the modelling of the forest and forest industry sectorfor individual countries, to determine the actual balance of supply and demand, and to determine regional and global balances by aggregating the country results. 1.1 Modelling
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