Demographic Shifts Influencing the Political Landscape of the Lake Victoria Basin in Uganda
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Sociology and Anthropology 6(9): 709-716, 2018 http://www.hrpub.org DOI: 10.13189/sa.2018.060903 Demographic Shifts Influencing the Political Landscape of the Lake Victoria Basin in Uganda Fredrick Ruguma Tumwine*, Yazidhi Bamutaze, Hosea Opedes Department of Geography, Geo-informatics & Climatic Sciences, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda Copyright©2018 by authors, all rights reserved. Authors agree that this article remains permanently open access under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 International License Abstract High population growth in Uganda is Basin associated with substantial reduction in Infant and Child mortality without commensurate reduction in fertility. Kampala city (100% urban) and Wakiso district (59% urban) are densely populated with 9,429 and 1,100 people 1 . Introduction per square km respectively (UBOS [1]). The paper explains strong links between high population growth rate of 3.03% Uganda has one of the youngest populations in the world / annum, high rate of urbanization (5.1% / annum) one of with nearly half of them aged below 15 years. However, in the major demographic shifts in the country and the the last decade population growth rate reduced from 3.2% changing political landscape of Kampala City and Wakiso per annum in the period 1991-2002 to 3.03%/ annum district. The paper utilizes both primary and secondary data. during 2002-2014 period due to the continued decline in Time series gridded population density data was obtained mortality and a slight decline in fertility as observed from from the Center for International Earth Science Table 1. Information Network (CIESIN) database and processed in National Population Council forecasts Uganda’s ArcGIS 10.1 program. Change detection analysis for three population to grow to 47 million by 2025 and 63 million by periods; 2000, 2010 and 2015 was conducted to determine 2030 (Ggoobi [2]). The major population characteristics of the spatial and temporal patterns of population density in Uganda include: declining family size, falling fertility and the Lake Victoria Basin. Primary data was obtained from mortality rates, improved literacy levels and increasing life in-depth interviews. Secondary population data was expectancy but growing levels of unemployment (UNFPA obtained from Uganda Population and Housing Census [3]). results (UPHC) 1991, 2002 and 2014; and Uganda Uganda is on the verge of demographically shifting from Presidential Election results of 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016. the second stage of the demographic transition to the third Results based on the imagery analysis of the gridded data stage. According to Table 1, the average number of reveals increasing concentration and hotspot of population children produced per woman fell to six (TFR 6.2) from density in the Lake Victoria Basin signifying it not only an seven that had persisted for the last 45 years (1969 to 1979) economic center but also a political hotspot region. The despite the continuous fall of mortality in the same period. paper reveals that high population growth rate and As a result of the farther decline in fertility to five children urbanization have influenced dependency ratio, in 2017 (TFR 5.4) from six in 2014 (TFR 6.2) and un unemployment, underemployment, poverty, standards of interrupted decline in mortality as observed from the social services and infrastructure as well as political mortality measures the gap between fertility and mortality landscape and ramblings. It explains why the National has started to narrow down and therefore the slight decline Resistance Movement (NRM) ruling party despite its in the growth rate from 3.2% to 3.0%, hence showing national strength performs poorly in the urban areas as characteristics of the third stage of demographic transition. compared to opposition led by Forum for Democratic Increase in full immunization has led to reduction in infant Change (FDC). The paper recommends fast tracking the and child mortality. While on the other hand, increase in establishment of Kampala metropolitan area, consultative school enrolment due to Universal Primary Education development planning that balances economic and (UPE) and Universal Secondary Education (USE) and environmental concerns and emphasizing urban urbanization coupled with increased contraceptive development as opposed to creation of new districts. prevalence have led to the reduction of fertility. This is more exemplified in the urban areas where TFR was 4.1 as Keywords High Population Growth, Urbanization, compared to 7.4 in the rural areas in 2002 and 3.8 and 6.8 Demographic shifts, Political Landscape, Lake Victoria respectively in 2012 (Tumwine & Ntozi [4]). 710 Demographic Shifts Influencing the Political Landscape of the Lake Victoria Basin in Uganda Table 1. Selected population indices of Uganda from 1969 to 2017 Time period (Years) 1969 1988 1991 1995 2000 2002 2006 2010 2014 2017 Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 7.4 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.2 5.4 Contraceptive use (%) - 5 - 15 23 23 23.7 24 30 39 Infant Mortality (per 1000) - 122 122 81 88 82 76 54 54 43 Child Mortality (per 1000) - - 180 147 152 141 137 90 69 64 Full immunization coverage (%) - - 31 47 38 63 46 52 - 97 Average annual growth rate (%) 3.9 - 2.5 - - 3.2 - - 3.0 - Sources:(UBOS [1], UBOS [2], UBOS [7], Kaijuka [8] and Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning [9]). High population growth rates compete with the growth sectors where it was more productive on average and at the rate of household incomes. Increase in the population margin. In addition, given that there is low productivity in cancels out the increase in aggregate output which keeps agriculture, relocation of workers from the sector to other average incomes low and stagnant thus keeping people in sectors (industries and services) impacts on per capita the vicious cycle of poverty (Ggoobi [2]). High population growth and employment positives. This has culminated to growth rate is characterized by very low production rural urban migration of young educated people seeking for increases the Marginal Propensity to Import (MPM). The employment more especially in Kampala and the MPM measures the response of imports to Domestic surrounding urban areas of Wakiso district. Income (GDP). In 2016, the MPM for Uganda stood at The population of the world is on the verge of shifting 33%. This implies that about 33% of each extra shilling from being predominantly rural to urban. As of 2008, more earned by Ugandans was shipped out of the country to than half of the world’s human population resided in urban countries that produce Uganda’s imports. These include: areas and by 2030, urban inhabitants will account for China, India, Kenya, South Africa, South Korea, Malaysia approximately 60% of the world’s population (Pham et al. etc. To make matters worse, Uganda’s population is [11]). The rapid growth of the urban population has characterized by low levels of savings and capital occurred in response to increased urban migration as accumulation. Ugandans have a culture of consumerism. people search for better jobs and improved living They love to live luxurious and ostentatious styles: hang conditions. Historically, urban immigration has exceeded out in eateries and consume sumptuous meals and alcohol, those of infrastructure development in the destination cities, holding parties, weddings and fanfare. Some go to the resulting in immigrants being unable to find suitable extent of borrowing to finance these ostentatious lifestyles employment opportunities and subsequently becoming (Ggoobi [2]) increasingly for city planners to adopt appropriate Uganda’s youthful population is majorly unskilled or sustainable land use plans. In Uganda, the high population semi-skilled and not financially empowered as well. This growth rate and urbanization have led to high dependency leads to low participation of Ugandan nationals in the ratio, unemployment, underemployment, poverty, low market economy. The few that are engaged in the market standards of social services and infrastructure as well as economy are concentrated mainly in small, informal influencing the political landscape that is always associated business majorly vending products that foreigners produce. with ramblings. Planning and managing urban spaces The big time investors are involved in non-tradable items depends on knowledge of the underlying driving forces, mainly construction of shopping malls, apartments and combined with the chronology and impacts of urbanization land. Since these are not exported, their multiplier effect is (Pham et al. [11]). low. The large and thriving businesses such as The level of urbanization in Uganda has been increasing telecommunications, banking, large scale manufacturing steadily. The urban population and proportion increased and wholesale are foreign owned and thus repatriation of from 634,952 (6.9%) in 1969, to 938,287 (7.4%) in 1980, profits (Ggoobi [2]) 1,889,662 (11.3%) in 1991, 2,921,981 (12.3%) in 2002 and Urbanization is arguably the most dramatic form of 6,424,013 (18%) in 2014 (UBOS [8]). This increase is irreversible land transformation. It may be linked with partly because of natural population increase, an increase details of topography, transportation, land use, social in the number of urban centers from 75 in 2002 to 259 (01 structure and economic type, but it is generally related to City, 33 Municipalities, 163 Town Councils and 62 Town demography and economy (Taubenbock et al. [9]). While Boards/ Townships) in March 2016 and expansion in the urbanization is a worldwide phenomenon, in Uganda one geographical area of some urban centers. Kampala city should consider the political and economic dimensions. has remained the primate urban center throughout the Dennis (10) findings indicate that between 2002 and 2009, period 1991-2014 with 41% of urban population in 1991 20% of the aggregate growth in labor productivity in and 25% in 2014 (UBOS [8]). Uganda reflected the drifting towards industries and Kampala City (100% urban) had a population of 1.5 Sociology and Anthropology 6(9): 709-716, 2018 711 million and Wakiso district which neighboring Kampala growth is a dynamic phenomenon which not only impacts (59% urban) had 2 million (UBOS [8]).