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IPCC AR6 WGI Faqs.Pdf AR6 WGI Report – List of corrigenda to be implemented The corrigenda listed below will be implemented in the FAQs during copy-editing. FAQs Document Section Page :Line Detailed info on correction to make (Chapter, (based on Annex, Supp. the final Mat…) pdf FGD version) 3 FAQ3.2 103:4 & Replace “CESM1 large ensemble” with “MPI-ESM grand ensemble”. 201:10 3 FAQ3.2 201:2 (Figure The image should be replaced to 1) The new figure was uploaded to the Figure Manager. 8 FAQ 8.1 227 :1 Replace “land use changes effect ” by “land use changes affect ” 9 FAQ9.1, 131 :9 Change ‘Table 9.SM.5’ to ‘Table 9.SM.9’. Figure 1 and 255 :6 9 FAQ 9.1 132 : 9 Remove “Table 9.SM.5” 11 FAQ 11.1 117:41 Replace “changes to on be only” with “changes over the globe by only” 11 FAQ 11.1, 343: Replace “refer” with “refers” Figure 1: 11 FAQ 11.1, 343: Replace “largest daily rainfall in a year” with “largest daily precipitation in a Figure 1: year” 11 FAQ 11.1, 343: Replace “CMIP6 ensemble mean” with “CMIP6 ensemble median” Figure 1: Final Government Distribution Chapter 1 IPCC AR6 WGI 1 Frequently Asked Questions 2 3 4 FAQ 1.1: Do we understand climate change better now compared to when the IPCC started? 5 Yes, much better. The first IPCC report, released in 1990, concluded that human-caused climate change 6 would soon become evident, but could not yet confirm that it was already happening. Today, evidence is 7 overwhelming that the climate has indeed changed since the pre-industrial era and that human activities are 8 the principal cause of that change. With much more data and better models, we also understand more about 9 how the atmosphere interacts with the ocean, ice, snow, ecosystems and land surfaces of the Earth. 10 Computer climate simulations have also improved dramatically, incorporating many more natural processes 11 and providing projections at much higher resolutions. 12 13 Since the first IPCC report in 1990, large numbers of new instruments have been deployed to collect data in 14 the air, on land, at sea and from outer space. These instruments measure temperature, clouds, winds, ice, 15 snow, ocean currents, sea level, soot and dust in the air, and many other aspects of the climate system. New 16 satellite instruments have also provided a wealth of increasingly fine-grained data. Additional data from 17 older observing systems and even hand-written historical records are still being incorporated into 18 observational datasets, and these datasets are now better integrated and adjusted for historical changes in 19 instruments and measurement techniques. Ice cores, sediments, fossils, and other new evidence from the 20 distant past have taught us much about how Earth’s climate has changed throughout its history. 21 22 Understanding of climate system processes has also improved. For example, in 1990 very little was known 23 about how the deep ocean responds to climate change. Today, reconstructions of deep oceanEDITS temperatures 24 extend as far back as 1871. We now know that the oceans absorb most of the excess energy trapped by 25 greenhouse gases and that even the deep ocean is warming up. As another example, in 1990, relatively little 26 was known about exactly how or when the gigantic ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica would respond to 27 warming. Today, much more data and better models of iceVERSION sheet behaviour reveal unexpectedly high melt 28 rates that will lead to major changes within this century, including substantial sea level rise (see FAQ 9.2). 29 30 The major natural factors contributing to climate change on time scales of decades to centuries are volcanic 31 eruptions and variations in the sun’s energy output. Today, data show that changes in incoming solar energy 32 since 1900 have contributed only slightly to global warming, andFINAL they exhibit a slight downward trend since 33 the 1970s. Data also show that major volcanic eruptions have sometimes cooled the entire planet for 34 relatively short periods of time (typically several years) by erupting aerosols (tiny airborne particles) high 35 into the atmosphere. 36 The main human causes of climate change are the heatTO-absorbing greenhouse gases released by fossil fuel 37 combustion, deforestation, and agriculture, which warm the planet, and aerosols such as sulphate from 38 burning coal, which have a short-term cooling effect that partially counteracts human-caused warming. Since 39 1990, we have more and better observations of these human factors as well as improved historical records, 40 resulting in more precise estimates of human influences on the climate system (see FAQ 3.1). 41 42 While most climate models in 1990 focused on the atmosphere, using highly simplified representations of 43 oceans and ACCEPTEDland surfaces, today’s Earth system simulations include detailed models of oceans, ice, snow, 44 vegetation and many other variables. An important test of models is their ability to simulate Earth’s climate 45 over the period of instrumental records (since about 1850). Several rounds of such testing have taken place 46 since 1990, and the testing itself has become much more rigorous and extensive. As a group and at large 47 scales, models have predicted the observed changes well in these tests (see FAQ 3.3). Since there is no way 48 to do a controlled laboratory experiment on the actual Earth, climate model simulations can also provide a 49 kind of ‘alternate Earth’ to test what would have happened without human influences. Such experiments 50 show that theSUBJECT observed warming would not have occurred without human influence. 51 52 Finally, physical theory predicts that human influences on the climate system should produce specific 53 patterns of change, and we see those patterns in both observations and climate simulations. For example, 54 nights are warming faster than days, less heat is escaping to space, and the lower atmosphere (troposphere) is 55 warming but the upper atmosphere (stratosphere) has cooled. These confirmed predictions are all evidence of Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute 1-116 Total pages: 215 Final Government Distribution Chapter 1 IPCC AR6 WGI 1 changes driven primarily by increases in greenhouse gas concentrations rather than natural causes. 2 3 4 [START FAQ 1.1, FIGURE 1 HERE] 5 6 FAQ 1.1, Figure 1: Sample elements of climate understanding, observations and models as assessed in the IPCC First 7 Assessment Report (1990) and Sixth Assessment Report (2021). Many other advances since 1990, such as key aspects 8 of theoretical understanding, geological records and attribution of change to human influence, are not included in this 9 figure because they are not readily represented in this simple format. Fuller explications of the history of climate 10 knowledge are available in the introductory chapters of the IPCC Fourth and Sixth Assessment Reports. 11 12 [END FAQ 1.1, FIGURE 1 HERE] 13 14 15 FAQ 1.2: Where is climate change most apparent? 16 17 The signs of climate change are unequivocal at the global scale and are increasingly apparent on smaller 18 spatial scales. The high northern latitudes show the largest temperature increase with clear effects on sea 19 ice and glaciers. The warming in the tropical regions is also apparent because the natural year-to-year 20 variations in temperature there are small. Long-term changes in other variables such as rainfall and some 21 weather and climate extremes have also now become apparent in many regions. 22 23 It was first noticed that the planet’s land areas were warming in the 1930s. Although increasingEDITS atmospheric 24 carbon dioxide concentrations were suggested as part of the explanation, it was not certain at the time 25 whether the observed warming was part of a long-term trend or a natural fluctuation – global warming had 26 not yet become apparent. But the planet continued to warm, and by the 1980s the changes in temperature had 27 become obvious or, in other words, the signal had emerged. 28 VERSION 29 Imagine you had been monitoring temperatures at the same location for the past 150 years. What would you 30 have experienced? When would the warming have become noticeable in your data? The answers to these 31 questions depend on where on the planet you are. 32 FINAL 33 Observations and climate model simulations both demonstrate that the largest long-term warming trends are 34 in the high northern latitudes and the smallest warming trends over land are in tropical regions. However, the 35 year-to-year variations in temperature are smallest in the tropics, meaning that the changes there are also 36 apparent, relative to the range of past experiences (see FAQ 1.2, Figure 1). 37 TO 38 Changes in temperature also tend to be more apparent over land areas than over the open ocean and are often 39 most apparent in regions which are more vulnerable to climate change. It is expected that future changes will 40 continue to show the largest signals at high northern latitudes, but with the most apparent warming in the 41 tropics. The tropics also stand to benefit the most from climate change mitigation in this context, as limiting 42 global warming will also limit how far the climate shifts relative to past experience. 43 44 Changes in ACCEPTEDother climate variables have also become apparent at smaller spatial scales. For example, 45 changes in average rainfall are becoming clear in some regions, but not in others, mainly because natural 46 year-to-year variations in precipitation tend to be large relative to the magnitude of the long-term trends.
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