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Lancaster District Local Housing Needs and Demand Survey ‐ 2011

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Lancaster District Local Housing Needs and Demand Survey ‐ 2011 LANCASTER DISTRICT LOCAL HOUSING NEEDS AND DEMAND SURVEY LOCAL PLAN CONSULTATION FINAL REPORT (SUMMER 2012) Lancaster District Local Housing Needs and Demand Survey ‐ 2011 CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................................................9 1.1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................................9 1.2 THE HOUSING STOCK....................................................................................................................................9 1.3 THE ECONOMIC CLIMATE.............................................................................................................................10 1.4 THE FUTURE POPULATION ...........................................................................................................................11 1.5 THE HOUSING MARKET ...............................................................................................................................12 1.6 AFFORDABILITY AND ENTRY TO MARKET HOUSING ...........................................................................................12 1.7 MIGRATION AND MOVING HOUSEHOLDS........................................................................................................13 1.8 HOUSEHOLDS WITH SUPPORT NEEDS .............................................................................................................13 1.9 OLDER PERSONS HOUSEHOLDS .....................................................................................................................14 1.10 BLACK AND MINORITY ETHNIC HOUSEHOLDS...................................................................................................14 1.11 FUTURE HOUSING DEMAND.........................................................................................................................14 1.12 AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED AND SUPPLY......................................................................................................15 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS...........................................................................................................................................16 2 SURVEY METHODOLOGY.......................................................................................................................18 2.1 BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT .......................................................................................................................18 2.2 PURPOSE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES..................................................................................................................18 2.3 THE LOCAL AREA........................................................................................................................................19 2.4 METHODOLOGY.........................................................................................................................................20 2.5 SAMPLING ................................................................................................................................................21 2.6 PROMOTION .............................................................................................................................................21 2.7 INTERVIEW SURVEY FIELDWORK ....................................................................................................................21 2.8 SURVEY PROCESS AND RESPONSE ..................................................................................................................22 2.9 DATA VALIDITY ..........................................................................................................................................22 2.10 SURVEY WEIGHTING ...................................................................................................................................22 2.11 GUIDANCE MODEL .....................................................................................................................................23 2.12 DEFINITIONS .............................................................................................................................................24 2.13 DATA SOURCES..........................................................................................................................................24 2.14 SURVEY HOUSEHOLD DATA..........................................................................................................................24 2.15 GLOSSARY OF TERMS ..................................................................................................................................25 3 ON LINE ASPIRATIONAL HOMES SURVEY...............................................................................................26 3.1 INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................................................................26 3.2 ABOUT YOU AND YOUR EXISTING HOUSEHOLD ................................................................................................26 3.3 EMPLOYMENT DETAILS................................................................................................................................29 3.4 OPINION OF HOUSING IN LANCASTER.............................................................................................................31 3.5 YOUR IDEA OF AN ASPIRATIONAL HOME ........................................................................................................34 4 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ...........................................................................................................................38 4.1 KEY FINDINGS............................................................................................................................................38 4.2 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS ............................................................................................................................38 4.3 INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................................................................39 4.4 EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT, OCCUPATION AND WORK PLACE DATA ....................................................................39 4.5 INCOMES AND HOUSING COSTS ....................................................................................................................41 4.6 EXISTING HOUSEHOLDS ...............................................................................................................................42 4.7 BME HOUSEHOLDS....................................................................................................................................46 4.8 EXISTING MOVING HOUSEHOLDS ..................................................................................................................46 4.9 CONCEALED HOUSEHOLDS ...........................................................................................................................47 4.10 ECONOMIC & INFRASTRUCTURE CHANGES ......................................................................................................48 4.11 M6 HEYSHAM LINK....................................................................................................................................48 4.12 THE ENERGY COAST AND HEYSHAM 3 REACTOR...............................................................................................49 4.13 HEYSHAM 3 ..............................................................................................................................................50 5 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE.......................................................................................................................51 5.1 KEY FINDINGS............................................................................................................................................51 2 Lancaster District Local Housing Needs and Demand Survey ‐ 2011 5.2 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS ............................................................................................................................51 5.3 EXISTING POPULATION PROFILE ....................................................................................................................52 5.4 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................53 5.5 POPULATION PROJECTIONS ..........................................................................................................................54 5.6 AGE STRUCTURE FORECAST 2008 ‐ 2033 ......................................................................................................55 6 THE CURRENT HOUSING STOCK ............................................................................................................58 6.1 KEY FINDINGS............................................................................................................................................58 6.2 STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS ............................................................................................................................58 6.3 CURRENT HOUSING IN THE DISTRICT ..............................................................................................................59 6.4 UNDER AND OVER‐OCCUPATION ..................................................................................................................61 6.5 SHARED FACILITIES
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