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An Analysis on the Influence of Population Growth Rate, Economic International Journal of Research and Review www.ijrrjournal.com E-ISSN: 2349-9788; P-ISSN: 2454-2237 Research Paper An Analysis on the Influence of Population Growth Rate, Economic Growth, Human Development Index, Income Distribution, and Unemployment Rate toward Poverty in All Provinces in Indonesia David Togar Hutagaol1, H.B Tarmizi2, Murni Daulay2 1Posgraduate Students at University of North Sumatera, Indonesia 2Postgraduate Lecturer at University of North Sumatera, Indonesia Corresponding Author: David Togar Hutagaol ABSTRACT This research aims to analyze the influence of population growth rate, economic growth, human development index, income distribution, and unemployment rate toward poverty in all provinces in Indonesia. This research used multiple linear regression model which processed with SPSS. All variables, such as population growth rate, economic growth, human development index, income distribution, and unemployment rate are in form of secondary data, which further proxied with Gini Ratio and unemployment rate in all provinces in Indonesia within 2016. The included data are in form of cross section data. The results show that population growth rate (0,015), economic growth (0,00), human development index (0,035), income distribution (0,01), and unemployment rate (0,00) are simultaneously influencing the poverty in all provinces in Indonesia, significantly Keywords: Population Growth Rate, Economic Growth, Human Development Index, Income Distribution, Unemployment Rate, Poverty. INTRODUCTION by Kakwani and Son (2003) that the National development goals are to purpose of development is to reduce the improve economic performance so that they level of poverty achieved through economic can create jobs and regulate decent lives for growth and / or income distribution. The everyone, which in turn will realize the population living below the poverty line in welfare of the Indonesian population. One Indonesia mostly lives in rural areas. In of the goals of national development is to order to escape the poverty trap, they need reduce poverty. Poverty is one of the to be empowered. For this reason, diseases in the economy, so it must be cured government intervention is needed to help or at least reduced. The problem of poverty provide assistance that can help improve the is indeed a complex and multidimensional economy of rural communities. One of the problem. Therefore, efforts to reduce real efforts currently undertaken by the poverty must be carried out government is the provision of assistance to comprehensively, covering various aspects every village in Indonesia, known as village of people's lives, and carried out in an funds. Since 2015, the Indonesian integrated manner. government in the APBN has budgeted Economic development has a major large amounts of village funds. The amount impact on poverty alleviation. As disclosed of this village fund has increased from year International Journal of Research & Review (www.ijrrjournal.com) 100 Vol.6; Issue: 1; January 2019 David Togar Hutagaol et.al. An Analysis on the Influence of Population Growth Rate, Economic Growth, Human Development Index, Income Distribution, and Unemployment Rate toward Poverty in All Provinces in Indonesia to year. This reflects the seriousness of the growth of food. So, for the long term this government in overcoming the problem of will bring havoc, namely the crisis of poverty in Indonesia. natural resources which ultimately drives However, in reality a significant the high rate of poverty in the region. increase in the amount of village funds from Kuncoro (2000) revealed that the population 2015 to 2017 was not followed by a in the economic development of a region is significant reduction in poverty rates. This a fundamental problem. This is a problem is as shown in Table 1. because uncontrolled population growth can hamper economic development, namely Table 1: Number of Village Funds and Poverty Levels in Indonesia in 2015-2017 people's welfare and reduce poverty. Year Total Village Funds Poverty level Economic growth also has a close (Trillion Rupiah) (Percent) 2015 20,76 14,09 relationship with poverty. Increased 2016 46,9 13,96 economic growth was allegedly having an 2017 60 13,47 Source: BPS impact on reducing the poverty rate itself. According to Ranis (2004), the distribution Based on Table 1 above, it is known that in of increased income from economic growth 2015, the amount of village funds allocated has a strong impact on human development. by the government was Rp. 20.76 trillion. With the increase in income, the poor have Next in 2016, the allocation of village funds capital to improve the quality of life, both doubled, which amounted to Rp. 46.9 health and education. This will have an trillion. Furthermore in 2017, the allocation impact on improving people's welfare and of village funds rose again to Rp. 60 trillion. reducing poverty. In addition, the benefits of From 2015 to 2017 village funds economic growth can also be allocated for experienced a significant increase, which infrastructure development, so that the was 2.89 times or 289 percent. economic climate can grow well. On the other hand, during the 2015 to 2017 The poor are essentially trapped in a period the poverty rate in Indonesia, prolonged poverty trap. This happens especially in rural areas, was still very high. because they do not have the opportunity to During this period, the decline in poverty improve the quality of life. Therefore, was very slow, inversely proportional to the increasing human capital development is significant increase in the amount of village needed. The aim is to accelerate human funds. Based on data obtained from BPS, development which leads to an increase in the poverty rate in rural areas in 2015 was the level of welfare. The success of human 14.09%, followed by 2016 at 13.96%, and resource development is shown by the in 2017 at 13.47%. In the period of 2015 to Human Development Index. The higher the 2017, the reduction in poverty in Indonesia, Human Development Index value of a especially in rural areas, was only 0.62%. region, the better the level of human This is very disappointing when compared resource development in the area. to the increase in the number of village fund According to Napitupulu (2007), the human allocations which reached 289%. This fact development index contains three important encourages researchers to examine what dimensions in development, which are actually affects poverty levels in the related to aspects of fulfilling the need for provinces of Indonesia? longevity and healthy life, to gain There are many factors that affect poverty in knowledge and have access to resources can Indonesia, one of which is the population. meet living standards. That is, the three Malthus in his theory likens the rate of important dimensions of human population growth as a series of measures, development are very influential on poverty. and the rate of growth of food as a series of To maximize the role of economic calculations, which means that the rate of development in reducing poverty, the main population growth is faster than the rate of requirement that must be met is equitable International Journal of Research & Review (www.ijrrjournal.com) 101 Vol.6; Issue: 1; January 2019 David Togar Hutagaol et.al. An Analysis on the Influence of Population Growth Rate, Economic Growth, Human Development Index, Income Distribution, and Unemployment Rate toward Poverty in All Provinces in Indonesia income distribution. Income distribution has variables, the research hypothesis can be an important role in ensuring the benefits of developed as follows: economic growth and development can be 1. The population growth rate has a enjoyed by the community fairly and positive effect on poverty in the evenly. If the distribution of income of a province of Indonesia. country or region occurs evenly, then every 2. Economic growth has a negative effect resident of the country or region can enjoy on poverty in the province of Indonesia. the benefits of economic growth in the form 3. The Human Development Index has a of increased income. Addition of income negative effect on poverty in the from the benefits of economic growth can province of Indonesia. make it easier for the poor to fulfill their 4. Inequality of income distribution has a needs. In addition, these poor people also positive effect on poverty in the have the opportunity to improve the quality province of Indonesia. The of life, because they have access to unemployment rate has a positive effect education and health. Uneven income on poverty in the province of Indonesia. distribution causes a wider gap between the poor and the rich population. This tends to MATERIALS AND METHODS have an impact on the high rate of poverty, Method of Collecting Data because the benefits of economic growth are This research is quantitative only enjoyed by certain groups. descriptive. According to Sugiyono (2014), The high level of unemployment can result quantitative descriptive research is a study in the worsening problem of poverty. that analyzes quantitative / statistical data, According to Sukirno (2004), the bad effect with the aim of testing predetermined of unemployment is to reduce people's hypotheses and then interpreting the results income which ultimately reduces the level of the analysis to draw conclusions. of prosperity that someone has achieved. Population is a generalization area Every person who is unemployed will find it consisting of: objects / subjects that have difficult to make ends meet, because he has certain qualities and characteristics no income. This situation will increase their determined by researchers to be studied and tendency to be trapped in poverty. Arsyad then conclusions drawn (Sugiyono, 2014). (1997) states that there is a very close The population of this study is all provincial relationship between the high rates of governments in Indonesia in 2017 which unemployment and poverty. For most number 34 provinces.
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