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47Th Annual Report of the Bank for International Settlements

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47Th Annual Report of the Bank for International Settlements BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS FORTY-SEVENTH ANNUAL REPORT 1st APRIL 1976 - 31st MARCH 1977 BASLE 13th June 1977 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Introduction I. Economic Developments and Policy Issues Positive developments on the international scene (p. ß) ; the central issues : unemploy- ment and inflation (p. j) ; outline of the Report (p. y). II. The Course of Economic Recovery io Recession and upswing: some international comparisons (p. 10); patterns of recovery: a varied picture (p. iß); cyclical and structural change: where do we stand? (p. ij); the utilisation of resources: adjustment versus accommodation (p. iy): personal consumption and saving (p. iy), dwelling construction (p. 20); business fixed investment spending (p. 21); fiscal policy and demand management (p. 2j): United States (p. 2y), Germany (p. 2y), Japan (p. 2y), United Kingdom (p. 28), Italy (p. 28). III. Inflation and Unemployment 31 Price inflation: recent trends and present prospects (p. ßi); international commodity prices: will history repeat itself? (p. ß2); exchange rates and domestic inflation (p. ßy); prices, wages and profits: the domestic aspects (p. 41); cyclical and structural un- employment (p. 4;); inflation and unemployment: the policy choices (p. 48). IV. Domestic Credit Markets and Monetary Policy 51 The pattern of sectoral financial positions (p. JI) : the financing of the corporate sector (p. jß), borrowing and lending in the personal sector (p. JJ), the financing of public-sector bor- rowing requirements (p. jy); monetary developments and policies (p. ;<>): monetary policy (p. jp), developments in monetary aggregates (p. 62) ; the use of monetary targets : problems and policies (p. 64) : actual results: how close to the mark? (p. 6y), the problems of targeting (p. 68), norms for domestic credit expansion (p. 69), the usefulness of monetary norms (p. yo); interest rates (p. yi). V. International Trade and Payments 74 World trade (p. y4): developed areas (p. y4), OPEC countries (p. y;), non-oil developing countries and centrally planned economies (p. y6); balances of payments (p. y 8): OPEC countries (p. y8), developed areas (p. y 8), non-oil developing countries (p. 80), developments in individual countries (p. 80); financing of surpluses and deficits (p. 86) : developed countries (p. 86), oil-exporting countries (p. 92), non-oil deve lo ping countries (p. 92); current payments imbalances and the adjustment process in a longer-term perspective (p. pß). Page VI. The International Credit and Capital Markets 97 Main factors at work in international markets (p. 99); the question of risks (p. 101); developments in the narrowly defined Euro-currency market (p. 103); total inter- national bank lending (p. no); interest rate developments (p. 11 /); the international bond markets (p. 117). VII. The International Monetary Scene 121 Exchange rate developments (p. 121); official intervention in the exchange markets (p. 129); the management of exchange rates (p. iji); gold production and the gold market (p. 134); reserves and international liquidity (p. iff). VIII. Activities of the Bank 144 Development of co-operation between central banks and international organisations (p. 144); operations of the Banking Department (p. 146): liabilities (composition of resources) (p. 147), assets (employment of resources) (p. 149); the Bank as Trustee for international loans (p. 1J2); the Bank as Depositary under the terms of the Act of Pledge concluded with the European Coal and Steel Community (p. ijj); the Bank as Agent for the European Monetary Co-operation Fund (p. 1J4); net profits and their distribution (p. IJ6); changes in the Board of Directors and in the Management (P- Conclusion 159 Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account at 31st March 1977. LIST OF TABLES AND GRAPHS (Graphs are indicated by an asterisk) Page The Course of Economic Recovery Movements in industrial production 11 Cyclical comparisons of industrial production * 12 A cyclical comparison of cumulative changes in the components of real gross national product 14 Changes in real gross national product and its components 18 Ratios of personal saving to disposable income 19 Real non-residential fixed investment * 21 Yields on long-term corporate bonds and equity shares 22 General government: Total expenditure and net financial deficit 26 Inflation and Unemployment Consumer prices 31 World-market commodity prices : The "Economist" indicator * 33 International commodity prices and the volume of imports * 35 Industrial production and inventory behaviour in selected countries * 36 Exchange rates, prices, wages and the money supply * 39 Consumer prices : Movements in major components 42 Earnings in industry: Nominal and real 43 Unemployment rates 46 Active labour force, employment and productivity 47 Domestic Credit Markets and Monetary Policy Financial surpluses and deficits by sector * 52 Corporate sector : Saving, investment and financial transactions 54 Personal sector: Changes in financial assets and liabilities 56 Government financing 58 Changes in the money stock and the contributions of its counterparts * ....... 63 Published monetary targets and actual rates of monetary expansion 65 The United States and Germany : Monetary targets and the growth of money *.... 67 Short and long-term interest rates * 72 Page International Trade and Payments World trade 75 Developed areas: Industrial production, volume and terms of trade, 1973-76* .... 76 International current-account transactions 79 Developed countries : Balances of payments 83 Developed countries : External monetary positions 88 Oil-exporting countries : Estimated deployment of investible surpluses 92 Current-account imbalances since the oil crisis 93 The International Credit and Capital Markets Estimated lending in international markets. Changes in external claims of banks in domestic and foreign currencies and international bond issues 98 External positions of reporting European banks in dollars and other foreign currencies 104 External assets and liabilities of banks in individual reporting countries, the United States, the Caribbean area and the Far East in domestic and foreign currencies . 106 External assets and liabilities of banks in individual reporting countries and in the Caribbean area and the Far East in dollars and other foreign currencies .... 107 Estimated sources and uses of Euro-currency funds 109 External positions in domestic and foreign currency of banks in Group of Ten countries and Switzerland and of the foreign branches of US banks in the Caribbean area and the Far East 112-114 Interbank rates on three-month Euro-currency deposits and differentials over domestic rates * 116 Euro-dollar deposit rates and Euro-dollar bond yields * 117 International bond issues 118 Yields on international and domestic markets of US dollar and DM bonds * 120 The International Monetary Scene Effective post-Smithsonian exchange rates * 123 Nominal exchange rates: Spot quotations for selected currencies vis-à-vis the US dollar * 125 Movements of spot exchange rates within the joint float of European currencies * . 127 World gold production 135 Estimated sources and uses of gold 135 Gold-market prices * , 136 Changes in global reserves, 1974-76 139 Page Activities of the Bank Development of the balance-sheet total over the past ten financial years 146 Development of the composition of resources over the past ten financial years .... 147 Borrowed funds, by origin 148 Borrowed funds, by nature and term 149 Distribution, by nature, of sight assets and other investments 150 Time deposits and advances and securities at term, by maturity 151 German Government International Loan 1930 (Young Loan) 152 Austrian Government International Loan 1930 153 Secured loans of the European Coal and Steel Community 154 FORTY-SEVENTH ANNUAL REPORT submitted to the ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING of the BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS held in Basle on 13th June 1977 Ladies and Gentlemen, I have the honour to submit herewith the forty-seventh Annual Report of the Bank for International Settlements for the financial year which began on ist April 1976 and ended on 31st March 1977. After transfer of 2,856,416 gold francs to the Provision for Exceptional Costs of Administration and 5,000,000 gold francs to the Provision for Building Purposes, the net profit for the year amounted to 167,920,050 gold francs, compared with 178,876,749 gold francs for the preceding year and 182,063,281 gold francs for the financial year 1974-75. The Board of Directors recommends that, in application of Article 51 of the Bank's Statutes, the present General Meeting should apply the sum of 47,920,050 gold francs in payment of a dividend of 100 Swiss francs per share. The Board further recommends that 48,000,000 gold francs be transferred to the General Reserve Fund, and the remainder of 72,000,000 gold francs to the Free Reserve Fund. If these proposals are approved, the Bank's dividend for the financial year 1976-77 will be payable to shareholders on ist July 1977. Chapter I introduces the Report with a brief survey of the main economic events of 1976 and early 1977 and presents an analysis of current policy issues in the western industrialised world. On the domestic side Chapter II looks in more detail at the course of economic recovery over the past year, while Chapter III examines the twin problems of inflation and unemployment. Chapter IV analyses developments in the industrial countries' domestic credit and capital markets, as well as the evolution of their monetary policies. On the international side Chapter V, besides describing last year's trade and payments relationships, takes a look at world payments imbalances since the oil price increases and their implications for the adjustment process. In Chapter VI an account is given of international credit and capital markets in 1976, together with an assessment of the risks for the banking system arising out of the rapid growth of its international lending. Chapter VII examines the course of exchange rates, the question of managed floating, gold and international liquidity. Chapter VIII deals with the Bank's activities during the financial year, the Balance Sheet and the financial results.
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