Task 5 Technical Memo, 1St Draft April 7, 2021
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HOLISTIC WATERSHED MANAGEMENT FOR EXISTING AND FUTURE LAND USE DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES: OPPORTUNITIES FOR ACTION FOR LOCAL DECISION MAKERS: PHASE 1 – MODELING AND DEVELOPMENT OF FLOW DURATION CURVES (FDC 1 PROJECT) SUPPORT FOR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND PROGRAM (SNEP) COMMUNICATIONS STRATEGY AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TASK 5 TECHNICAL MEMO 1ST DRAFT APRIL 7, 2021 Prepared for: U.S. EPA Region 1 Prepared by: Paradigm Environmental Great Lakes Environmental Center Blanket Purchase Agreement: BPA-68HE0118A0001-0003 Requisition Number: PR-R1-20-00322 Order: 68HE0121F0001 FDC 1 Project TM 5 April 7, 2021 Table of Contents 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 1 2 Task 5A. Data/Information Assessment .......................................................................................... 1 2.1 Data Review ............................................................................................................................ 1 Landscape Data ............................................................................................................... 1 Dams and Reservoirs ....................................................................................................... 9 Water Use ....................................................................................................................... 9 Meteorology Data ........................................................................................................... 9 Streamflow Data ........................................................................................................... 20 2.2 Literature Review and Additional Resources ........................................................................... 46 HSPF and HEC-RAS Models ........................................................................................ 46 Evapotranspiration and Carbon Sequestration ................................................................ 46 The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator .............................................................. 51 The Watershed Management Optimization Support Tool (WMOST) .............................. 51 2.3 Candidate Sub-watersheds Identification and Prioritization ..................................................... 52 3 Task 5B. Past, Current and Future Climate Data Analysis .............................................................. 67 3.1 Historic Trends ...................................................................................................................... 68 3.2 Current Conditions ................................................................................................................ 71 3.3 Future Conditions .................................................................................................................. 76 4 Task 5C. Baseline Unit-Area Modeling Analysis ............................................................................ 77 4.1 HRUs Development .............................................................................................................. 77 Land Use – Land Cover Reclassification ......................................................................... 77 Hydrologic Soil Group Reclassification .......................................................................... 79 Slope Group Reclassification.......................................................................................... 79 Mapped HRU Categories ............................................................................................... 80 Directly Connected Impervious Area .............................................................................. 84 4.2 Baseline Unit-Area HRU Time Series ..................................................................................... 89 Water Balance and Loading Analysis ............................................................................. 89 Factsheet Development .................................................................................................. 89 5 Comparison of flow metrics for historic and current conditions ....................................................... 89 6 Task 5D. Develop Hydrologic/Streamflow and Water Management Modeling Approach for Wading River watershed Analyses ................................................................................................................... 96 6.1 Watershed Modeling Approach .............................................................................................. 96 6.2 SCM Modeling Approach with FDC Attenuation Objective ................................................... 100 Background and Precedence .......................................................................................... 102 MOIST Adaptation for Opti-Tool Integration ................................................................ 105 6.3 Future Climate Change Scenarios .......................................................................................... 106 7 References ................................................................................................................................... 108 i FDC 1 Project TM 5 April 7, 2021 Figures Figure 1. Wading River watershed location within Taunton basin. .......................................................... 2 Figure 2. Historical land use for the Taunton basin, Massachusetts. ........................................................ 5 Figure 3. Changes in land use mapping precision. .................................................................................. 7 Figure 4. NLCD impervious surface data for the Taunton basin, 2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016. .................. 8 Figure 5. Dam locations in the Wading River watershed ...................................................................... 10 Figure 6. Water use in the Wading River watershed ............................................................................. 12 Figure 7. Water withdrawals from Blakes Pond by the Attleboro Water Department. ............................ 13 Figure 8. Meteorology and streamflow gage locations........................................................................... 14 Figure 9. Number of rain days per year by depth (T.F. Greene Airport, Providence, RI). ....................... 17 Figure 10. The original hourly temperature data at the Providence Airport gauge (72506814765). .......... 18 Figure 11. Data gaps for meteorological information obtained for T.F. Green International Airport, Providence Rhode Island (Gage 1476). ................................................................................................ 19 Figure 12. Total discharge by water year based on daily mean discharge at the Wading River (01109000). .......................................................................................................................................................... 21 Figure 13. Rating curve for Wading River (01109000). ......................................................................... 22 Figure 14. Flow duration curve 1925-2020. Wading River. ................................................................... 23 Figure 15. Flow duration curves by decade. Wading River.................................................................... 24 Figure 16. Enlarged section of Figure 15 showing the low flow portion of flow duration curves by decade. Wading River. .................................................................................................................................... 25 Figure 17. Average monthly flow 1925-2020. Wading River (01109000). ............................................... 28 Figure 18. Maximum (top) and minimum (bottom) 1-day mean of daily mean discharges. ..................... 29 Figure 19. Maximum (top) and minimum (bottom) 3-day mean of daily mean discharges. ..................... 30 Figure 20. Maximum (top) and minimum (bottom) 7-day mean of daily mean discharges. ..................... 31 Figure 21. Maximum (top) and minimum (bottom) 30-day mean of daily mean discharges. ................... 32 Figure 22. Maximum (top) and minimum (bottom) 90-day mean of daily mean discharges. ................... 33 Figure 23. The minimum 7-day mean of daily mean discharges divided by the mean of mean daily discharges for the year. ........................................................................................................................................ 35 Figure 24. Julian day of minimum (top) and maximum (middle) flows. Maximum flows with an adjusted Julian start date are presented on the bottom graph. ............................................................................. 36 Figure 25. Number of high and low pules. Top graph: 75% (high), 25% (low). Bottom graph: 90% (high), 10% (low). .......................................................................................................................................... 37 Figure 26. The average duration of high (top) and low (bottom) pulses (90th and 10th percentiles). ........ 38 Figure 27. Rise rate (top) and fall rate (bottom). ................................................................................... 39 Figure 28. Number of flow reversals. ................................................................................................... 40 Figure 29. Discharge variability in the Wading River over time. ............................................................ 40 Figure 30. Quantile-Kendall plot 1925-2020.