ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS

Issue 30 MAY 2008 Fresh insights into the Zimbabwean situation

PRE-ELECTION SWEETENERS FOR VOTERS

Already wielding the big stick, the government has eased economic restrictions in hope this will buy votes for Robert Mugabe.

By Happiness Chikudo in Harare

As Zimbabweans continued flocking to the banks to offload foreign currency in the wake of a major monetary reform, traders thronged border crossings last week to import scarce commodities after the government scrapped duties on some food imports.

Analysts are agreed that President Credit: Lazele Robert Mugabe has introduced these New 500 million-dollar banknote issued on May 15. Picture taken May 20. economic measures with a view to securing victory for him in the forthcoming second round of the Economic liberalisation election officials ruled that neither presidential election. candidate had won the 50 per cent designed to win over majority needed for outright victory. In the first round, held on March 29, voters ahead of June 27 Mugabe lost to Morgan Tsvangirai, ballot. On May 15, the government’s Herald leader of the Movement for newspaper announced that the Democratic Change, MDC, but second round would be held not within

NEWS IN BRIEF On May 15, the Herald newspaper result, Tsvangirai delayed his return Robert Mugabe acknowledged that announced that the second round of from an extended lobbying trip the March 29 polls had ended in a the presidential election would be abroad. “dismal result” for the regime. While held not within 21 days as prescribed accusing the MDC of doing well only by law, but instead within 90 days of Also on May 19, the MDC said the because it was backed by Zimbabwe’s the date the results were announced. death toll of supporters and activists enemies abroad, he noted that his The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission killed in recent violence had risen to team “went to the election said the next day that the vote would 43. The party accuses the ruling completely unprepared, unorganised, take place on June 27. ZANU-PF of an orchestrated campaign and this against an election-weary to win back ground lost in the March voter”. ZANU-PF was “bickering and The Movement for Democratic 29 ballot by intimidating and divided“, and its leaders from the top Change, MDC, on May 19 publicly displacing voters suspected of voting down “all share the blame”, he said, accused the Zimbabwean military of against the Mugabe regime. adding, “We have a crucial run-off plotting to use snipers to assassinate ahead of us. We must use it to repair opposition leader and presidential In a speech to ZANU-PF’s central the damage and shortcomings which candidate Morgan Tsvangirai. As a committee on May 16, President we suffered.”

MAY 2008 1 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING the normal 21 days from the date the machinery and spare parts, electricity, The 90-day suspension was needed first-round result was announced, but fuel, chemicals and “other essentials” in order to ensure there was a instead within 90 days, with a deadline — in which he presumably included “constant supply of imported basic of July 31. The following day, the the major food purchases that have commodities that have been Zimbabwe Electoral Commission been necessitated by the collapse of augmenting local supplies”, said announced that the vote would be the country’s agriculture. Ndlovu. held on June 27. The immediate result of freeing up He explained that high tariffs, which the exchange rate was a massive in some cases reached 100 per cent loss of value for the Zimbabwean of an item’s value, was reducing the ZIMBABWEAN DOLLAR PLUMMETS dollar as it hurtled towards its true amount of goods imported into market value. Zimbabwe. Until then, that had For the past two weeks, the banks and seemed to be precisely the point of other financial institutions have been punitive duties — to stop scarce busy as people rush to exchange foreign currency going abroad to buy foreign currency, especially United Central bank announcement imports, and to attempt to reduce a States dollars, for Zimbabwean money. sent people rushing to the trade deficit caused by the banks to exchange money. depressed export capacity of this Since the Zimbabwean dollar has unproductive economy. become increasingly worthless in recent years, this was a major turnaround. Basic items like foodstuffs, soap, toothpaste and washing powder It followed an announcement by Gono made his announcement on a have been in short supply on the Gideon Gono, governor of the Reserve Friday, when the rate was still posted official market since last July, when Bank of Zimbabwe, RBZ, on May 2 as 30,000 to the US dollar. When Mugabe ordered all businesses and that the currency would no longer be trading resumed on Monday, May 5, industries to cut the prices of goods traded at a fixed rate. the official rate leapt to nearly 169 and services almost in half. This million, not thousand, to one. crude anti-inflationary measure proved counterproductive as goods That meant that all of a sudden, the disappeared from the shelves in People rushed to exchange authorities had access to significant panic-buying and shops could not amounts of hard currency that would afford to restock. Zimbabwean currency at previously have passed them by. the banks after the central Illegal currency trading was all but bank chief announced a wiped out as black marketeers radical shift in policy. struggled to keep pace with the banks. People who would previously Second major policy change have sold foreign currency on the lifted import duties on vital black market because the banks commodities. Gono acknowledged that the current offered such a ridiculously low rate exchange-rate mechanism was not were now opting for safer and legal working. Until that point, the official transactions on advantageous rate had been held at 30,000 to the US terms. dollar since September 2007. Before Since the restrictions on acquiring Gono’s announcement, the By May 16, one American dollar was foreign currency curbed the ability of Zimbabwean currency was trading at worth 255 million or so of the commercial firms to buy from abroad, upwards of 100 million to one Zimbabwean currency. much of what was available in American dollar on the illegal black Zimbabwe was supplied to markets market. and street vendors by informal cross- border traders. HIGH IMPORT DUTIES SWEPT He said the foreign exchange market AWAY had to work properly if the country was The suspension of customs duties to achieve economic stability and cut immediately sparked a stampede to inflation. Year-on-year inflation was On May 13, government spokesman the borders with neighbouring somewhere over 150,000 per cent at Sikhanyiso Ndlovu announced a South Africa, Mozambique, the last count. second major policy reversal. Import Botswana and Zambia, as people duty charges on basic commodities used their new freedom to buy The central bank chief noted that over including cooking oil, rice, salt and goods abroad either to stock up at 80 per cent of Zimbabwe’s imports margarine were scrapped with home or to resell as a way of were items of crucial importance like immediate effect until August 12. making some extra income.

2 ISSUE 30 ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS

POLITICAL CALCULATION gimmick to hoodwink voters as the EXTRA GIFT FOR FARMERS country braces for a run-off.”

The liberalised economic environment An increased supply of foreign In his statement, Gono also gave created by the currency flotation and currency in the banking system will notice that the fourth phase of the this week’s lifting of customs duties allow the government to import food “mechanisation programme” — which clearly has a political backdrop. and pay Zimbabwe’s neighbours for provides farm machinery in rural areas electricity supplies, assuaging hunger — would be unveiled in July. Ahead of The increased impoverishment of and avoiding embarrassing blackouts the March 29 elections, Gono used much of the Zimbabwean population is in the midst of a crucial election. Many RBZ funds to hand out tractors, ox- perhaps the main driver of wide-scale regional states have grown impatient drawn ploughs and other farming public discontent with Mugabe, and with the government’s late payment of equipment. the reason why he performed so electricity bills. poorly in the March 29 polls. Despite its apparently iron grip on the country, Mudzengi suggested that access to his ZANU-PF party was defeated by foreign currency would help the the MDC in the parliamentary election, authorities bankroll their election “Gono needs to find hard even losing seats regarded as safe. campaign. currency for a lot of things, including running the According to John Robertson, an independent economic and political election and importing Authorities need to analyst, “The government needs food” analyst John recapture support even in foreign currency for a lot of things, Robertson. traditionally safe seats. among them to repay the FCA [foreign currency accounts] of embassies and international organisations that were raided by the RBZ before the March ZANU-PF has traditionally drawn its 29 elections.” support from rural voters, while the Now the security forces and ZANU-PF MDC was seen as more urban- militias have been deployed in a based — at least until the recent campaign of violence in a bid to break elections, when it out-performed the support for the opposition ahead of Mugabe “has his eyes on ruling party even on its home the second round. the presidential run-off” — ground. political analyst Ernest The currency and duty measures add Nelson Chamisa, spokesman for a carrot to the stick now being wielded Mudzengi. Tsvangirai’s faction of the MDC, said by the authorities. the pledge to unroll the next phase of farm mechanisation programme “can’t “How do you explain that the waiver be a coincidence”. on duty was for three months with In his May 2 statement on monetary effect from May 12 until [the election policy, bank governor Gono admitted “It is part of ZANU-PF vote-buying. deadline of] August 12?” said a ZANU- that for several months, corporate We have maintained that Gono has, PF insider, speaking on condition of firms, foreign embassies, non- and is still, funding ZANU-PF’s anomymity. “This date allows the governmental organisations and some violent campaign. The state security president to polish his election international organisations had agents beating up opposition machinery.” experienced “delays” in accessing supporters in the rural areas are their foreign currency accounts at the paid from RBZ coffers,” he said, as Ernest Mudzengi, a political analyst central bank. the MDC announced that the with the National Constitutional number of its supporters killed in Assembly, a non-government pressure Robertson added, “While the main election violence had reached 32 by group, agreed. reason might be to replace FCA May 13. accounts taken from embassies, gold “He has his eyes on the presidential producers and others, the element of The authorities are clearly calculating run-off,” he said, referring to Mugabe. the elections cannot be ruled out. The that a combination of intimidation, well- “It is also an admission by the ZEC [Zimbabwe Electoral funded electioneering and sweeteners government of Mugabe that the Commission] has already said it is for the population will secure a command-economy policies have broke. Gono needs to find hard landslide for Mugabe. failed dismally and that the country currency for a lot of things, including has not been able to feed itself for the running the election and importing Happyness Chikudo is the pseudonym past eight years. It is all an election food.” of a reporter in Zimbabwe.

MAY 2008 3 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING ATTACKS TO CREATE NO-GO AREAS FOR MDC

Violence by ZANU-PF supporters focused in areas where opposition won unexpected support in first- round elections.

By Jabu Shoko in Harare

Supporters of the ruling ZANU-PF party are targeting opposition activists in an attempt to intimidate voters in the forthcoming re-run of the presidential election.

The opposition Movement for Democratic Change, MDC, says people working for it are being picked

off, especially in constituencies where Credit: Lazele it won seats for the first time in the Moud Chokururama mourns her son Beta as he is laid to rest at Warren Hills cemetery March 29 polls. A lawyers’ group in Harare. Beta was abducted and killed by suspected ZANU-PF supporters. Picture noted that employees of the taken May 27. Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, ZEC, were also being arrested in these calculates that he won outright with Information trickling in from the contested areas. 50.3 per cent of the vote. countryside indicates that some of the areas worst affected by the campaign The recount of the parliamentary ballot The Mugabe administration has of violence are regions traditionally confounded expectations by leaving everything to play for, especially in seen as Mugabe strongholds — the the original results intact, with ZANU- those rural areas which were regarded three Mashonaland provinces, PF controlling 97 against the 99 won as ZANU-PF’s heartland but which Manicaland and Masvingo. by the main MDC faction, led by turned against it and voted MDC in the Morgan Tvangirai. Arthur Mutambara’s parliamentary ballot. Speaking two weeks ago, Chamisa MDC faction won ten seats, and has outlined five recent killings which indicated it will work with Tsvangirai’s included a woman shot dead by group, though contrary to media soldiers in Manicaland, two male MDC reports, the two have not formally supporters attacked by ZANU-PF reunited. Opposition activists paramilitaries in Mashonaland Central, targeted in areas where and a polling agent for the opposition When the Zimbabwe Electoral ZANU-PF lost unexpectedly. who died after an assault by war Commission, ZEC, finally released the veterans and other Mugabe loyalists in result of the presidential election on the Midlands, an area where support May 2, it ruled that neither Tsvangirai for the ruling party support is weak. nor the incumbent Robert Mugabe had surpassed the 50 per cent mark The opposition says Mugabe has “Thousands of people have been needed for victory. It said the already unleashed a campaign of displaced while hundreds have been opposition leader got 47.9 per cent, violence designed to drive out MDC seriously injured and are hospitalised beating Mugabe’s 43.2 per cent but activists and force the rural in various hospitals across the country, still necessitating a run-off vote to population back into line behind as the violence by ZANU-PF militia decide the winner. ZANU-PF. It says more than 30 of its and youth continues to increase at supporters have been killed and alarming levels,” said Chamisa. Tsvangirai has agreed to contest a thousands of others assaulted by the second round, now scheduled for security forces and irregular groups “Before they raided our headquarters, June 27, even though his party like the war veterans. the place was more of a casualty

4 ISSUE 30 ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS department or a refugee camp than an that come the run-off, the MDC will not office, as it was filled to capacity with have anyone in the rural areas willing villagers that had fled their rural to represent them, let alone campaign homes. These people have nowhere to for them.” go and their villages have been declared no-go areas for them and Irene Petras, executive director of their families.” Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Rights, ZLHR, said arrests, intimidation and Wayne Bvudzijena, the national police violence targeting the both MDC spokesman, said he was still collecting activists and ZEC polling officers statistics relating to political violence. were designed to secure a Mugabe Credit: Lazele victory. Result of a beating by alleged ZANU-PF The experience of Davias Matiza, 50, supporters. Picture taken May 13. from the Mutoko South constituency in ZLHR is representing schoolteachers Mashonaland East, mirrors that of who have been arrested and charged many MDC supporters. He will not them and beat them with whips and with violating electoral legislation in forget the events of April 12, when he barbed wire, and left them for dead. areas where the opposition won. only just managed to flee after an Many teachers served as ZEC attack on his home. Both Mapuranga and Chizanga election officers during the March 29 suffered serious injuries and needed polls. specialist treatment in Harare, about 150 kilometres away. “These people have nowhere to go and their “We reported the matter to the police, villages have been but the police officer handling the Election officers declared no-go areas for issue was also assaulted and accused intimidated to allow them and their families” of supporting the MDC,” said a tearful security forces to Chizanga, who is in hiding. MDC spokesman Nelson “manage the electoral Chamisa. process to benefit one presidential candidate” “It is a calculated strategy — human rights group. to create no-go areas as “Armed ZANU-PF thugs burnt down my house. I managed to escape and the ZANU-PF strategy for boarded a bus. The thugs, however, the run-off” — Useni followed me and surrounded the bus Sibanda of the Christian It described these detentions as “an and demanded me out of the bus,” Alliance. attempt to ensure that, in the event of he told IWPR, speaking from a safe a presidential run-off, such officers will house where he has joined scores of refuse to participate, thus allowing the other opposition supporters who state to justify its use of law have fled the reign of terror in rural enforcement agents, intelligence areas. Useni Sibanda, co-ordinator of the officers, war veterans and graduates Christian Alliance, a loose grouping of of the National Youth Service Training “By the grace of God, I again church organisations which is seeking Programme to manage the electoral managed to flee from the scene funds to feed, clothe and process to benefit one presidential through the window and run for my accommodate displaced opposition candidate, to whom they owe their dear life. A Good Samaritan gave me supporters, said Mugabe was trying to political and human survival”. a lift to Harare and then I found my push the MDC out of certain areas by way into the MDC head office, but I targeting its activists on the ground. ZLHR has called on members of the understand the ZANU-PF thugs and security forces and other regime war veterans are still after my life.” “It is a calculated strategy to create activists to “moderate their behaviour” no-go areas as the ZANU-PF strategy as they should be aware it is illegal to Two MDC polling agents in the same for the run-off,” said Sibanda. arrest interrogate ZEC officers, and Mutoko South constituency were not they could face serious consequences so lucky. Patience Mapuranga, 30, and “Between 80 and 90 per cent of the for doing so. Mahwisai Chizanga 40, recalled how people that have fled due to violence ZANU-PF militia accused them of in the rural areas were polling agents Jabu Shoko is the pseudonym of a supporting the opposition, kicked for the MDC. So what this means is reporter in Zimbabwe.

MAY 2008 5 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING ZANU-PF SEES POLICE AS CAPTIVE VOTE

Fears that postal ballots cast by uniformed services will be misused.

By Joseph Nhlanhla in Bulawayo

Zimbabwe’s security forces have been deployed in a campaign of intimidation and violence against opposition supporters. Now the police are themselves in the spotlight, as ZANU-PF election strategists try to ensure that officers vote en masse for President Robert Mugabe, who is contesting a second-round election against opposition leader Morgan

Tsvangirai. Credit: Lazele Polling officers seal ballot boxes in Harare North constituency during the first round of An inside source in the police told elections. Picture taken March 29. IWPR that the almost 30,000-strong force had come under pressure to back Mugabe. The source, an “We cannot even think of how to Although top commanders of the assistant inspector in Bulawayo who escape this. Resigning from the force various services are among Mugabe’s spoke on condition of anonymity, said is not one of the wisest things to do most hawkish supporters, many rank- personnel had been instructed to use right now,” he said. and-file members are increasingly their postal vote without fail. disgruntled with their pay and conditions in Zimbabwe’s Police are allowed a postal vote when hyperinflationary economy. Desertions they are serving away from home. “Resigning from the force from the uniformed services have is not one of the wisest increased in recent years, and many things to do right now.” have joined the exodus of public-sector employees to neighbouring countries.

Police insider says force is under pressure to vote for In the March 29 election, postal voting Mugabe. Rank-and-file members of proved contentious, with critics arguing the security forces that the process was open to manipulation. The parliamentary ballot increasingly unhappy with handed a majority to the opposition their conditions, and many “We were told that Mugabe already Movement for Democratic Change, have deserted. has [secured] about 28,000 votes from MDC, but the presidential election police officers, and whoever decided conducted simultaneously produced not to ask for their postal ballot would what electoral officials — after a long be dealt with,” said the officer. delay — said was an inconclusive result The assistant inspector added that he that necessitated a second round. understood the directive had been He said police officers had been extended to the army, air force and informed that failure to cast their ballot In the first round, some members of prison services, all of which come by post would leave them vulnerable the security forces chose not to cast under the powerful Joint Operations to what he described as “torture we their votes, as a way of registering Command, JOC. If this happens, it already know”. their discontent. could provide a captive vote

6 ISSUE 30 ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS numbering about 100,000, possibly Human rights organisations say more operating out of Zimondi’s home in enough to secure the presidency for than 30 people have been killed so far, Mashonaland East province. Mugabe. with thousands of others displaced. ZANU-PF’s election strategy is However, a senior journalist, who did reportedly being run by party not want to be named, argued that hardliners like Emmerson Mnangagwa, postal votes are not easy to Top security chiefs working with JOC commanders providing men manipulate. Like conventional ballot hard to ensure Mugabe on the ground as well as involving papers, they are secret, he said, “so it stays in power. themselves in the day-to day running is difficult to see how the police can of the country. be forced to vote for Mugabe unless there is outright interference and the Dumiso Dabengwa, a former ballots cast are simply replaced with Many of the attacks have been in Zimbabwean interior minister who is those in favour of Mugabe on their way areas once regarded as ZANU-PF now a ZANU-PF dissident, recently told to whatever command centre they are strongholds but where the opposition journalists in Bulawayo that the country destined for.” won surprise victories. The violence was being ruled by a de facto military has principally targeted the MDC’s junta. The suggestion that the JOC, not The JOC has taken charge of the day- activists and supporters on the Mugabe, is now in charge following the to-day running of the country and is ground, and the aim is clearly to first-round fiasco, has also been made set on ensuring that Mugabe retains remove its ability to mobilise in these by the MDC and other critics. power whatever the cost. areas and coerce voters into switching back to Mugabe in the Tsvangirai’s return to Zimbabwe — The first round was conducted in an second round. delayed by reports of an assassinate atmosphere unusually free of violence, him — following a six-week diplomatic but since then, the regime’s As well as the police and military, tour, is likely to mark the beginning of disappointment with the results has prison services chief, Paradzai another bruising bout of election sparked a wave of violence in which Zimondi, is said to be actively involved campaigning. the police and army have been in the campaign. Last week, the deployed alongside ZANU-PF activists Zimbabwe Peace Project group Joseph Nhlanhla is the pseudonym of and paramilitary groups. alleged that ZANU-PF militias were a reporter in Zimbabwe.

The Zimbabwe Crisis Report is information provision, It also contributes to the an initiative of IWPR-Africa’s capacity building and development of regional policy, Zimbabwe Programme. dissemination and distribution. promotes dialogue and builds This programme promotes bridges within the region. It also democratization and good The key purpose is to increase raises the Africa wide and governance with Southern Africa awareness in the Southern African international profile of Zimbabwe and contributes to the region of the Zimbabwean in the context of the region. development of a culture of situation and the implications for Importantly it also builds the skills human rights and the rule of law. regional peace, security and and capacity of the media to Focusing on Zimbabwe the economic development. reliably and accurately report programme has three core political transition, governance and components — human rights issues.

The programme is managed by the Institute for War and Peace Reporting — Africa. For further details go to www.iwpr.net

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