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The Truth About Big Oil and Climate Change РЕЛИЗ ПОДГОТОВИЛА ГРУППА РЕЛИЗ ПОДГОТОВИЛА ГРУППА "What's News" VK.COM/WSNWS Is the German model broken? Iran, 40 years after the revolution China’s embrace of intellectual property On the economics of species FEBRUARY 9TH–15TH 2019 Crude awakening The truth about Big Oil and climate change РЕЛИЗ ПОДГОТОВИЛА ГРУППА "What's News" VK.COM/WSNWS World-Leading Cyber AI РЕЛИЗ ПОДГОТОВИЛА ГРУППА "What's News" VK.COM/WSNWS Contents The Economist February 9th 2019 3 The world this week United States 6 A round-up of political 19 After the INF treaty and business news 20 Missiles and mistrust 21 Virginia and shoe polish Leaders 21 Union shenanigans 9 Energy and climate Crude awakening 22 Botox bars Elizabeth Warren’s ideas 10 Germany’s economy 23 Time to worry 24 Lexington Donald Trump and conservatism 10 Arms control Death of a nuclear pact The Americas 12 Iran’s revolution at 40 Dealing with the mullahs 25 Canada in the global jungle On the cover 13 A new boss for the World Bank 26 Jair Bolsonaro’s The oil industry is making a A qualified pass congressional win bet that could wreck the 28 Bello The Venezuelan climate: leader, page 9. Letters dinosaur ExxonMobil, a fossil-fuel On the Democratic titan, gambles on growth: 14 Republic of Congo, Asia Briefing, page 16. The Green hygiene, Brexit, chicken, New Deal pays little heed to 29 India’s Congress party King Crimson, airlines economic orthodoxy: Free 30 Avoiding military service exchange, page 67 in South Korea Briefing • Is the German model broken? 31 Turmoil in Thai politics 16 ExxonMobil An economic golden age could 31 Facial fashions in Bigger oil, amid efforts to be coming to an end: leader, Pakistan hold back climate change page 10. How Germany’s 32 Banyan Japan’s lost decentralisation can inoculate islands against political unrest: page 41. The long expansion, page 61 China • Iran, 40 years after the 33 Cultural diplomacy revolution The Islamic 34 Pets proliferate theocracy has failed its people, but Donald Trump’s sanctions 35 Chaguan Understanding could prolong its life: leader, Taiwan page 12. Four decades after its revolution, Iran is still stuck in the past, page 36 Middle East & Africa • China’s embrace of intellectual property Believe it 36 Iran’s revolution turns 40 or not, Chinese firms are not all 38 Iran and its neighbours serial thieves of intellectual 39 Bibi’s favourite word property: Schumpeter, page 58 39 East African rifts • On the economics of species 40 Elections in Nigeria Conservationists are rethinking how to preserve nature on a changing planet—and within a Banyan The importance tight budget, page 68 to Shinzo Abe of four alluring islands occupied by Russia, page 32 1 Contents continues overleaf РЕЛИЗ ПОДГОТОВИЛА ГРУППА "What's News" VK.COM/WSNWS 4 Contents The Economist February 9th 2019 Europe Finance & economics 41 No gilets jaunes in 61 Deceleration in Germany Germany 62 The first 1MDB trial 42 Macron’s great debate 63 Optimistic pension plans 43 Phantom fake medicines 63 Bill Gross retires 44 Wish upon Five Stars 64 Australia’s misbehaving 44 A treadmill for Hungarian banks dogs 64 A bitcoin banker dies 46 Charlemagne Vestager’s 65 Buttonwood Gauged progress against the machine 66 Donald Trump’s tax cuts Britain 67 Free exchange Brave new 47 Asians, the new Europeans deal 48 Irish boom and bust 49 Bagehot Learning from Science & technology John Ruskin 68 Ecology and economics 70 Rewilding spreads International 50 Electricity for the poor 51 What light reveals Books & arts 71 Eurasia 72 An innovative Chinese gallery 73 Segregation in America Business 73 A memoir of madness 53 America’s manufacturing revival 74 Women and the sea 54 Intel’s new boss Economic & financial indicators 55 Bartleby McDonald’s and sustainability 76 Statistics on 42 economies 56 UNIQLO abroad Graphic detail 56 Norwegian’s descent 77 Bitcoin’s price crash has not deterred miners 57 Food pricing in France 58 Schumpeter China and Obituary intellectual property 78 Lamia al-Gailani, guardian of Mesopotamian relics Subscription service For our full range of subscription offers, including digital only or print and digital combined, visit: Economist.com/offers Volume 430 Number 9129 Published since September 1843 You can also subscribe by mail, telephone or email: One-year print-only subscription (51 issues): Please to take part in “a severe contest between North America intelligence, which presses forward, The Economist Subscription Center, United States....................................US $158.25 (plus tax) and an unworthy, timid ignorance P.O. Box 46978, St. Louis, MO 63146-6978 Canada................................................CA $158.25 (plus tax) obstructing our progress.” Telephone: +1 800 456 6086 Latin America.......................................US $289 (plus tax) Email: [email protected] Editorial offices in London and also: PEFC certified Amsterdam, Beijing, Berlin, Brussels, Cairo, Latin America & Mexico This copy of The Economist Chicago, Johannesburg, Madrid, Mexico City, The Economist Subscription Center, is printed on paper sourced Moscow, Mumbai, New Delhi, New York, Paris, P.O.Box 46979, St. Louis, MO 63146-6979 from sustainably managed San Francisco, São Paulo, Seoul, Shanghai, Telephone: +1 636 449 5702 forests certified to PEFC Singapore, Tokyo, Washington DC Email: [email protected] PEFC/29-31-58 www.pefc.org © 2019 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Newspaper Limited. The Economist (ISSN 0013-0613) is published every week, except for a year-end double issue, by The Economist Newspaper Limited, 750 3rd Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, N Y 10017. The Economist is a registered trademark of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Periodicals postage paid at New York, NY and additional mailing offices. Postmaster: Send address changes to The Economist, P.O. Box 46978, St. Louis , MO. 63146-6978, USA. Canada Post publications mail (Canadian distribution) sales agreement no. 40012331. Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to The Economist, PO Box 7258 STN A, Toronto, ON M5W 1X9. GST R123236267. Printed by Quad/Graphics, Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 РЕЛИЗ ПОДГОТОВИЛА ГРУППА "What's News" VK.COM/WSNWS A banking experience you’ll actually enjoy. Surprising, right? ĕĝĤěħĥĝĬħāęĨġĬęĤčĦĝāęĞȲīġĦĮġĬġĦğĨĤęěĝīįġĬĠ ĨĝħĨĤĝĠĝĪĝĬħĠĝĤĨıħĭĦħĬīĝĤĤıħĭđĬħĨĚıęĤħěęĬġħĦ ĬħĠęĦĜĤĝıħĭĪĝĮĝĪıĜęıĚęĦģġĦğĦĝĝĜīħĪğħħĦĤġĦĝ ĬħĤĝęĪĦĥħĪĝWelcome to Banking Reimagined.® čljĝĪĝĜĚıāęĨġĬęĤčĦĝČÿċĝĥĚĝĪĄĂćāāęĞȲīĜħĦħĬĨĪħĮġĜĝĬĠĝīęĥĝīĝĪĮġěĝīęīĚęĦģĚĪęĦěĠĝīĚĭĬĠęĮĝÿĒċīęĦĜęīīħěġęĬĝīįĠħěęĦĠĝĤĨıħĭāęĞȲīęĮęġĤęĚĤĝġĦīĝĤĝěĬĤħěęĬġħĦī ąħĬħĤħěęĬġħĦīěęĨġĬęĤħĦĝěħĥĞħĪĤħěęĬħĪĄħħĜęĦĜĚĝĮĝĪęğĝīĨĪħĮġĜĝĜĚıęĬĠġĪĜĨęĪĬıƣ! (āęĨġĬęĤčĦĝ РЕЛИЗ ПОДГОТОВИЛА ГРУППА "What's News" VK.COM/WSNWS 6 The world this week Politics The Economist February 9th 2019 The government and rebel For the ninth week, tens of groups in the Central African thousands of protesters in A leader, but with little power Republic signed a peace deal Serbia called on Aleksandar A dozen members of the eu, aimed at ending more than five Vucic to resign as president. He including Germany, France and years of fighting. Their conflict has offered to hold elections, Britain, recognised Juan broke out in 2013 after Islamist but the demonstrators want a Guaidó, the leader of groups overthrew the then fairer election law and more Venezuela’s legislature, as the government. media time for the opposition. country’s interim president. They acted after Nicolás The armed forces of Burkina Maduro, who won a rigged Faso said they had killed146 Keeping up the jaw-jaw election in May, failed to meet jihadists near the border with Donald Trump confirmed that a deadline for calling a proper Donald Trump gave his state- Mali. Security in the country he would hold a second ballot. Most Latin American of-the-union speech to Con- has deteriorated since a jiha- summit with Kim Jong Un, democracies back Mr Guaidó. gress, delayed by a week be- dist uprising in Mali in 2012. North Korea’s dictator, in (Venezuela’s constitution cause of wrangling over gov- Vietnam in late February. Mr makes him interim president if ernment spending. He again Kim has done little to fulfil his the post is not legitimately called for tougher curbs on pledge at the pair’s last meet- filled.) Venezuela’s army illegal immigration, calling it a ing in Singapore to give up his moved to block the delivery of “moral duty”.He also said that nuclear weapons. food aid, which might fill any new trade deal with China empty bellies but would also “must include real, structural Australia cancelled the resi- embarrass the regime. change to end unfair trade dency permit of Huang practices…and protect Ameri- Xiangmo, a property developer Brazil’s justice minister, pre- can jobs”.In a rare cordial with ties to the Chinese gov- sented a plan to get tougher on moment, Mr Trump welcomed ernment. Mr Huang has given criminals and go easier on the record number of women generous donations to poli- cops. Police who kill in the line in work, drawing whoops and ticians who express pro-China of duty may escape punish- cheers from Democratic con- Pope Francis celebrated mass views, as well as to Australia’s ment if they acted out of “fear, gresswomen, who had dressed in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the two biggest political parties. surprise or violent emotion”. A in white for the occasion. United Arab Emirates.Itwas judge convicted Brazil’s former the first visit by a pope to the Indian officials resigned in president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Virginia’s state government Arabian peninsula, the birth- protest at what they saw as the Silva, who is already serving a seemed unable to find anyone place of Islam. The pope government’s attempts to 12-year sentence for corrup- to run the place who has not lamented the region’s wars, suppress unflattering eco- tion, on an additional corrup- either applied boot polish to including the one in Yemen, nomic data.
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