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The Independent Climate Change E-Mails Review July 2010

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The Independent Climate Change E-Mails Review July 2010 The Independent Climate Change E-mails Review July 2010 Chair: Sir Muir Russell Review team: Professor Geoffrey Boulton Professor Peter Clarke David Eyton Professor James Norton INDEX OF CONTENTS GLOSSARY 8 Chapter 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 10 1.1 Introduction 10 1.2 The Review Process 11 1.3 Findings 11 1.3.1 Land Station Temperatures 12 1.3.2 Temperature Reconstructions from Tree Ring Analysis 12 1.3.3 Peer Review and Editorial Policy 13 1.3.4 Misuse of IPCC Process 13 1.3.5 Compliance with the Freedom of Information Act (FoIA) and the 14 Environmental Information Regulations (EIR) 1.3.6 Other Findings on Governance 14 1.4 Recommendations 14 1.5 Broader Issues 14 Chapter 2 INTRODUCTION 18 2.1 Background 18 2.2 The Review 19 Chapter 3 TERMS OF REFERENCE AND METHOD OF ENQUIRY 22 3.1 Terms of Reference 22 3.2 Method of Enquiry 22 Chapter 4 CONTEXT OF THE E-MAILS 26 4.1 Characterising the E-mails 26 4.2 The Timeline 27 4.3 What the E-mails Tell Us 32 Chapter 5 THE CHANGING CONTEXT OF MODERN SCIENCE 36 5.1 The Scientific Process 36 5.2 The Nature of Climate Science 36 5.3 Data Accessibility in the Digital Age 37 5.4 Handling Uncertainty 38 5.5 Scientific Journals and the Peer Review Process 39 5.6 The Responsibilities of Scientists in Communicating in the Public Domain 40 5.7 Communicating to Policymakers 41 5.8 The Changing Forum for Debate and the Blogosphere 41 Chapter 6 LAND STATION INSTRUMENTAL TEMPERATURE DATA 44 6.1 Background 44 6.2 The Allegations 44 6.3 The Approach Adopted by the Review Team 45 6.4 The Results of the Analysis 46 6.5 Checking Specific Details in the CRUTEM Analysis 49 6.5.1 Identification of Data Sources 49 6.5.2 The Availability of Computer Codes 49 6.6 Use of Local temperature Data from China 51 6.7 Conclusions and Recommendations 53 2 3 Chapter 7 TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTIONS FROM TREE RING ANALYSIS 54 7.1 Background 54 7.2 The Allegations 54 7.3 Findings 56 7.3.1 IPPC Reports 56 7.3.2 Divergence 59 7.3.3 Withholding Data 60 7.3.4 Mishandling Data 61 7.4 Conclusions and Recommendations 62 Chapter 8 PEER REVIEW AND INFLUENCING EDITORIAL POLICY OF SCIENTIFIC 64 JOURNALS 8.1 Background: Peer Review, Testing and Verification 64 8.2 The Allegations 64 8.3 The Soon and Baliunas Affair & Climate Research 64 8.4 The Conflict with Dr Boehmer-Christiansen 66 8.5 Peer Review and Professor Briffa‘s Editorship of Holocene 67 8.6 Conclusions 68 Chapter 9 COMMUNICATING INTO THE PUBLIC DOMAIN THROUGH THE IPCC 70 9.1 Background 70 9.2 The Allegations 70 9.3 The CRUTEM Temperature Series 71 9.3.1 The Scientific Challenge 71 9.3.2 The Allegations 71 9.3.3 Evidence in Support of the Allegations 71 9.3.4 Jones‘ Response 73 9.3.5 Evidence from IPCC Review Editor for Chapter 3 (Professor Sir Brian 74 Hoskins) 9.3.6 Findings 75 9.4 The Tree Ring Proxy Temperature Series 77 9.4.1 The Scientific Challenge 77 9.4.2 The Allegations 77 9.4.3 Evidence in Support of the Allegations 78 9.4.4 Responses from Briffa 80 9.4.5 Evidence from IPCC Review Editor for Chapter 6 (Professor John 82 Mitchell) 9.4.6 Findings 83 9.5 Conclusions 84 Chapter 10 COMPLIANCE WITH FoIA/ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION 86 REGULATIONS 10.1 Introduction and Method of Enquiry 86 10.2 The Allegations 86 10.3 General Context 86 10.4 Investigation 89 10.5 Findings 91 10.6 Recommendations 94 4 5 Chapter 11 GOVERNANCE 98 11.1 Introduction and Method of Enquiry 98 11.2 Research Management Systems 98 11.2.1 Background 98 11.2.2 Funding Management 99 11.2.3 Funders‘ Requirements 99 11.2.4 Good Research Practice 99 11.2.5 Financial Controls 100 11.2.6 Risk Management 100 11.2.7 Findings on Research Management Systems 100 11.3 Software, Data Management and Data Security 101 11.3.1 General Context 101 11.3.2 Issues and the Investigation 102 11.3.3 Findings on Software, Data Management and Data Security 103 11.4 Recommendations 103 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 106 APPENDIX 1: REVIEW TEAM MEMBERS 108 APPENDIX 2: APPROACH AND WORK PLAN 110 APPENDIX 3: ISSUES FOR EXAMINATION 112 APPENDIX 4: INDEX OF MEETINGS, INTERVIEWS, SUBMISSIONS, 120 FOLLOW UP ENQUIRIES AND RESPONSES APPENDIX 5: PEER REVIEW 126 APPENDIX 6: DATA MINING – ACCESS TO THE ORIGINAL CRU E-MAIL 146 ARCHIVE APPENDIX 7: LAND STATION TEMPERATURE DATA 150 APPENDIX 8: SOFTWARE AND DATA STANDARDS 160 6 7 GLOSSARY AR4 Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007 CLA Coordinating Lead Author COP Conference of the Parties COPE Committee on Publication Ethics CRU Climatic Research Unit CRUTEMX Land air temperature anomalies on a 5° by 5° grid-box basis, version X DEFRA UK Government Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs DPA Data Protection Act 1998 E&E Energy and Environment EC European Community EIR Environmental Information Regulations ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation ENV University of East Anglia School of Environmental Sciences FOI Freedom of Information FoIA Freedom of Information Act 2000 GHCN Global Historical Climatology Network GISS Goddard Institute for Space Studies GISTEMP Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis GWPF Global Warming Policy Foundation HadCRUTX Combined land and marine temperature anomalies on a 5° by 5° grid-box basis, version X IAC Inter Academy Council ICCER Independent Climate Change E-Mails Review ICO Information Commissioner‘s Office ICT Information Communications Technology IDL Interactive Data Language IEC International Electrotechnical Commission IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCM Information Policy and Compliance Manager IS Information Systems ISSC Information Systems Strategy Committee IT Information Technology JANET The United Kingdom‘s Education and Research Network JISC Joint Information Systems Committee LA Lead Authors LIA Little Ice Age MBH Mann, Bradley and Hughes MM McKitrick and Michaels 8 M&M McIntyre and McKitrick MWP Medieval Warm Period NAO North Atlantic Oscillation NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research NCDC National Climatic Data Center NMO National Meteorological Office NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration PERL Practical Extraction and Reporting Language PI Principal Investigator REE Research, Enterprise and Engagement S&B Soon and Baliunas SAP Scientific Assessment Panel SPM Summary for Policy Makers TAR Third Assessment Report of the IPCC in 2001 UEA University of East Anglia UHI Urban Heat Island UKRIO United Kingdom Research Integrity Office UN United Nations UNEP United Nations Environment Programme WMO World Meteorological Organization WWR World Weather Records 9 CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. The main findings of the Independent Climate Change E-mails Review (―the Review‖) are set out in Section 1.3 below, and the main recommendations in Section 1.4. We comment in Section 1.5 on some of the more general issues raised by the Review that we think are important about the context in which scientists operate and in which science contributes to public policy. 1.1 Introduction 2. In November 2009, approximately 1000 e-mails from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia (UEA) were made public without authorisation. 3. CRU is a small research unit which over the last 30 years has played an important role in the development of climate science, in particular in their work on developing global temperature trends. 4. The e-mails fuelled challenges to the work of CRU, to the reliability of climate science generally, and to the conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). All this happened shortly before the Copenhagen Summit, and was extensively referred to there. 5. In response, the UEA commissioned two inquiries. The first led by Lord Oxburgh, into the science being undertaken at CRU, has already reported. This document is the report of the second inquiry – The Independent Climate Change E-mails Review – which examines the conduct of the scientists involved and makes recommendations to the University of East Anglia. Our inquiry addresses a number of important allegations that were made following the e-mail release. 6. The allegations relate to aspects of the behaviour of the CRU scientists, such as their handling and release of data, their approach to peer review, and their role in the public presentation of results. 7. The allegations also include the assertion that actions were taken to promote a particular view of climate change by improperly influencing the process of advising policy makers. Therefore we have sought to understand the significance of the roles played by those involved from CRU and of the influence they had on the relevant outcomes. 8. The Review examines the honesty, rigour and openness with which the CRU scientists have acted. It is important to note that we offer no opinion on the validity of their scientific work. Such an outcome could only come through the normal processes of scientific debate and not from the examination of e-mails or from a series of interviews about conduct. 10 CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.2 The Review Process 9. The approach taken by the Review was to identify and investigate the allegations to which the e-mails gave rise. This reflected our reading of the emails and the comments made on them. An online consultation was undertaken to ensure that the Team‘s initial analysis of the allegations and concerns was sound.
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