CONFLICT ALERT 2020 Enduring Wars Peace is within our power About Conflict Alert Conflict Alert is a subnational conflict monitoring system that tracks the incidence, causes, and human costs of violent conflict in the Philippines. It aims to shape policymaking, development strategies, and peacebuilding approaches by providing relevant, robust, and reliable conflict data. Conflict Alert was developed and is run by the Philippines Programme of International Alert, an independent peacebuilding organization. www.conflictalert.info About International Alert International Alert helps find peaceful solutions to conflict. We are one of the world’s leading peacebuilding organizations with nearly 30 years of experience laying the foundations for peace. We work with local people around the world to help them build peace, and we advise governments, organizations, and companies on how to support peace. We focus on issues that influence peace, including governance, economics, gender relations, social development, climate change, and the role of business and international organizations in high-risk places. www.international-alert.org This project receives funding from The World Bank Group and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade of the Australian Government. The opinions expressed in this report are solely those of International Alert and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of our donors. © International Alert 2020 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without full attribution. Credits Page design by Chris Inton Front cover photo by Ferdinandh Cabrera Inside photos by Keith Bacongco, Nickee Butlangan, Ferdinandh Cabrera, Froilan Gallardo, Mark Navales, Martin San Diego, Veejay Villafranca, and Najib Zacaria Illustrations by Glendford Lumbao Maps by Dominic Fargas, Jr., Gilson Andre Narciso, and Chris Inton On the cover: Indigenous Teduray residents of Barangay Itaw, South Upi, Maguindanao flee to safety on 3 January 2021 after armed men believed to be members of the BIFF burned down their homes allegedly to force them to leave their lands. , Ferdinandh Cabrera CONFLICT ALERT 2020 Enduring Wars i CONFLICT ALERT | 2020 Acknowledgements ork on this edition of the the championing of Conflict Alert’s relevance Conflict Alert report began to the scholarship on Mindanao conflict W in 2019 and extended up to and development have been invaluable. 2020–a period that was initially heady Thank you to Dr. Milabel Enriquez-Ho, former because of the political milestones WMSU President, and Dr. Chona Q. Sarmiento, that created the new autonomous former Vice President of Research, Extension Bangsamoro region, which turned Services and External Linkages (RESEL), whose worrisome and confining as the strong support and faith in the relevance of government turned to lockdowns to this endeavor have been immeasurable, and control the spread of COVID-19. to Dr. Reynante E. Autida, former Director of Research Development and Evaluation Center Yet the Conflict Alert team soldiered on, intent (RDEC), and Prof. Swidin S. Husin who were on delivering the 2019 data on violent conflict in key in bringing together strategic community the Bangsamoro, which you can read about in members in Zambasulta to the Multi- Stakeholder this report. The 2019 dataset extends Conflict Validation Group (MSVG) meetings and sustaining Alert's coverage of conflict, from the village the links outside the fora. Many thanks as well up to the provincial level in the Bangsamoro, to the reliable RDEC staff Ere Lee Q. Salang, to nine years, which puts us within reach Dennis Marcelino, Ricardo Garcia, Rhu-Ina of our goal to gather 10 years of data. Susukan Mandain and Marc Cris Lopez. We could not have done all this without our We are grateful to Fr. Francis Efren V. Zabala, partners and access to key social networks at NDU President, for the encouragement and for local, regional, and national levels. The unstinting giving us his time even with his busy schedule support of our partners since the beginning to really drill down on the utilization of the when we established the system in 2013 has dataset by NDU faculty members so they may allowed us to continue our conflict monitoring contribute to the nuance of violent conflict work and strengthen the relevance of evidence- analysis in the Bangsamoro, particularly in based reporting and analysis amidst the grave Maguindanao. To Dr. Estelita E. Gayak, former limitations brought about by the pandemic. director of University Research and Publication Center (URPC), for leading the team in gathering We are grateful first and foremost to our partner 2019 data, conducting MSVGs, and organizing academic institutions, particularly the Western the data summit with various local government Mindanao State University (WMSU) and Notre units in Maguindanao. We are also thankful to Dame University (NDU) whose full support and the team Shamier de Castro, Joveylove Bacang ii and Irene Fernandez, and URPC staff Ana Belle serve as a valuable resource for policy makers, Sta. Ana, Samra Alang, and Aileen Badoy. planners, and peacebuilders in designing programs and projects that address violent conflict without This project would not be possible without the their support. We are extremely grateful to His continued support of the Philippine National Police Excellency Steven J. Robinson AO, Australian (PNP) and its various offices in the Bangsamoro Ambassador to the Philippines, Clare Duffield, Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), Counselor for Political and Public Affairs; and Cotabato City, Zamboanga Peninsula, and Cotabato Jennifer Bennett, Second Secretary for Peace province. They have given so generously their and Stability - Political of the Australian Embassy time to respond to our data requests and provide in Manila; and to Mara Warwick, former WB insight into specific incidents when needed. Director for Brunei, Malaysia the Philippines and Thailand, to Ndiamé Diop, the current WB Director, The often firsthand knowledge of local conflicts of to Ditte Fallesen, Senior Social Development all our MSVG members in the different geographical Specialist, and Marcelo Jorge Fabre, Senior clusters of Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao- Conflict and Violence Specialist, for consistently Cotabato City, and Zamboanga-Basilan-Sulu- supporting and promoting the data, and for Tawi-Tawi-Isabela City; of our partners the Early asking the tough questions on the implications Response Network (ERN) of Lanao del Sur of the work to peacebuilding and development. and the Marawi Reconstruction Conflict Watch (MRCW), supplement, challenge, and deepen our We would like to thank our Conflict Alert team analysis. Their inputs have been instrumental in whose dedication and commitment to the task the enhancement and expansion of our Critical have been exemplary: Ricardo Roy A. Lopez, Events Conflict Monitoring System (CEMS), Reyham E. Usman, Ella Jade E. Ismael, Mark an SMS- and VHF radio-based platform that Benedict K. Mortera, Hazel Mae C. Helido, captures real-time conflict incidents and tensions John Jezreel L. Custodio, Vivian C. Belecina, in communities. CEMS has proven useful in Abdulrahman Z. Daud, Morris Dela Peña, Naila coordinating quick and context-specific responses W. Asap, Catherine Chua, and Genesis Adion. Our to violent conflicts, disasters, public health gratitude also goes to Chris Inton for the layout emergencies, and displacement, as they happen. design, to Glendford Lumbao for the illustrations, and to Dominic Fargas, Jr. and Gilson Narciso For giving us access to datasets useful for both for creating the maps included in this report. our quantitative and qualitative analysis, we extend our gratitude to the Philippine Statistics Authority Conflict Alert will not have maintained its efficiency (PSA) and to the Office of the United Nations and credibility without the feedback, inspiration, High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). support, and camaraderie of colleagues at International Alert -- Ruel J. Punongbayan, Maria The support of the World Bank and the Australian Jossie Parrenas, Macmillan Lucman, Jorge Golle, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) May Che Capili, Antonio Luis G. Go, Khalid Amerol, have been invaluable and enabled us to contribute Rey Palabon, Phoebe Adorable, Grace Ann Gaza, to a deeper understanding of the complexities of Timoteo Pupa, Alexander Alba, Kristina Boado, violent conflicts in the Bangsamoro and helped Nemia Bautista, Loren Palumbarit, Delfin Borrero, inform policies, programs, and strategies that build Brian Haber, Susan Grace Gayatin, Allen Jumawan, more resilient communities. The Conflict Alert Charmae Bantilan, Cenen Jalimao, and intern Fritzie monitoring system would not have been able to Jhane Cago; and to our consultants Ed Quitoriano, iii CONFLICT ALERT | 2020 Joel Rodriguez, Guillermo Lazaro, and Rene from the discussions on the appropriate analytical Navata. Our sincere appreciation also to Michael frame, to writing lessons on analytical pieces such Young, International Alert Chief Executive Officer, as this report. We thank him for the incisive inputs and Markus Mayer, Regional Manager for Asia, for and razor-sharp comments during the writing promoting the salience of our conflict monitoring process and to developing the next relevant step system as a consistent watchguard for peace. to scale-up the conflict monitoring system. Our