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Cssforum.Com.Pk Content Copyright © Jworldtimes.Com Jahangir World Times Published: January, 2013 Pakistan-Russia Cooperation A CSSForum.com.pk Content Copyright © jWorldTimes.com Jahangir World Times Published: January, 2013 Pakistan-Russia Cooperation Amidst Antagonism? Or just a geo-political shift … Despite being geographically contiguous, Pakistan and Russia have remained politically distant from each other during the last six decades. The framework of Cold War and the East-West confrontation defined relations between the two countries during that very period. GAZA Tuesday, January 01, 2013 This assessment of relations between Pakistan and Russia looks at the influence of South Asia and Central Asia's bilateral relations in a highly-charged and greatly-changed region on the pointed end of the futuristic post-2014 Afghanistan. Relationships between Pakistan and Russia will have important implications for the region's overall strategic picture in the years ahead. Two common elements emerge through a novel of bilateral relations between highly diverse nations seeking to escape the labyrinth. One common element is low politics in shape of economic interaction driven by global economic crisis powered by regionalism. The other is the high politics to deal with terrorism in the post-2014 (the withdrawal of the US forces from Afghanistan) approach. The regional bilateral relations sow the seeds of a multilateral approach based on the reciprocal benefits on equality basis. The question is whether cooperation bodes well for acceptance of the US politico-military leadership? Will such bilateral cooperation hurt the US interests in the region or the strategic diplomacy will be followed to balance the West with the East? In short, the central concerns of these analyses is how the Pakistan-Russia regional relationship affects, and are affected by, outside actors as well as themselves. Both governments appear committed to deepening their economic relationship despite the perennial political difficulties. The close relationship with the United States complicates Pakistan's dealings with Russia. At times the need to satisfy Washington's perceived expectations of its alliance partner (non-NATO ally) requires Pakistan to pursue policies that risk offending Russia and that may therefore endanger Pakistan's working relationship with Moscow. Historically speaking, Pakistan's foreign policy revolved around the orbit of India for most of its history. Pakistan's foreign policy was formed in New Delhi. It used to do just opposite to what India did. Same was the case with India. The moment Pakistan got closer to the US and its sponsored defence alliances (SEATO and CENTO), India developed good bilateral relations with the former Soviet Union. This made Pakistani policymakers see Russia as the friend of the enemy -- thus an enemy. Aligning itself with the Western alliance resulted in an anti-Soviet Union Pakistan and incidents like U-2 further fuelled to the fire in deteriorating relations between the two countries. Relationships between Pakistan and Russia will have important implications for the region's overall strategic picture in the years ahead. Conflicting forces characterise the Pak-Russia historiography relations. On one hand, the economic relationship is getting stronger. Each country sees the other as an important part of its own plans for economic growth. Pakistan finds numerous products -- gas, oil and steel for import on much cheaper prices than from the other countries. On the other hand, bilateral security relations, while stable at the moment, present the longer-term need for cooperation in the post-2014 Afghanistan. Furthermore, the two societies harbour the mutual ill-will stemming from historical experience. The last century has generated both Pakistan's pride that its involvement in Afghanistan during the 1970s and 80s partly caused disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia's anger at Pakistani Jihadis' involvement in Chechnya as well as Pakistan's anger at Russia's full support to India with regard to its defence shopping list. With the end of the Cold War, Pakistan was able to adopt an independent policy towards Russia. However, the past bitter perception always maligned any effort to improve relations. Efforts to develop relations still remained in the process. Former prime minister Mian Nawaz Sharif was the pioneer in making a bold effort to cultivate relations with Russia. He visited Russia during his second term and got into several trade and industrial treaties. This visit of a Pakistani prime minister was incredible because it gave a new turn to Pakistan's relations with Russia. Later, the exchange of visits after every year or two became part of the routine foreign tours by both Pakistani and Russian top leaderships. Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations Mending the Broken Fibre … Pakistan reiterated its support to an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace and reconciliation process. The two sides emphasised the importance of an intra- Afghan inclusive dialogue and the consequent political settlement for a durable peace in Afghanistan. GAZA Tuesday, January 01, 2013 Pakistan and Afghanistan are once again trying to follow a hand-in-hand policy in overcoming the common challenges. If saving their citizens from the menace of terrorism is a big challenge, then ensuring a real reconciliation in the aftermath of the 2014 withdrawal seems even a bigger challenge. The circumstantial pressures keep on jockeying the two countries viz-a-viz bilateral relations. They start talking to each other but then suddenly talk about certain unpleasant incidents. The unfortunate assassination of the then Chairman of the High Peace Council of Afghanistan (HPC) late professor Burhanuddin Rabbani put on hold the joint efforts of the two countries for reconciliation inside Afghanistan. The Salala check-post incident forced Pakistan to minimise focus on its western borders. It took almost a year that the new HPC Chairman, Mr Salahuddin Rabbani, undertook a trip to Pakistan. With the visit by Afghanistan's High Peace Council, the thread has been rejoined where it broke because of the assassination of the late Professor Rabbani. Pakistan agreed and has now released a number of the Afghan Taliban from its custody to facilitate the intra-Afghan talks. This is in line with the oft-quoted policy of supporting an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned process of reconciliation. However, the main demand of release of Mullah Abdul Ghani Brother has not been met by Pakistan so far. Afghan President Hamid Karzai himself has been very keen in securing the release of Mullah Brother. Being a fellow Popalzai Pushtoon, Mullah Brother is supposed (by President Karzai) to strengthen latter's perspective within the Afghan ruling circles. The High Peace Council is not an executive arm of the Afghan government to implement or execute whatever was agreed during its visit to Pakistan. Therefore, Afghan Foreign Minister Dr Zalmay Rasool visited Pakistan in the first half of December. During his stay in Islamabad, the two sides expressed satisfaction at the outcome of the recent visit to Pakistan by the HPC delegation led by its Chairman Salahuddin Rabbani. The Afghan side thanked Pakistan for releasing prisoners in response to the HPC request. Pakistan reiterated its support to an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace and reconciliation process. The two sides emphasised the importance of an intra-Afghan inclusive dialogue and the consequent political settlement for a durable peace in Afghanistan. Pakistan reaffirmed that it fully supports and stands by the Afghan nation because they determine their own future. In this context, both sides agreed to take action on the elements of the Joint Statement issued during HPC's visit. Both sides also agreed to a joint conference of Afghan and Pakistani ulema (religious scholars) to take place in Kabul by the end of January 2013, the release of more prisoners, facilitating contacts and urging the Taliban to renounce ties to al-Qaida. The two countries have also recognised the need of jointly pursuing the trade and transit agreements with the Central Asian states. In the aftermath of the visit by Afghanistan's foreign minister, a lot is still needed to be done. First, the Afghan side desires that Pakistan should release all Afghans detained by Pakistan. However, Pakistan has got to be cautious. Secondly, there are a number of Taliban on the list of international sanctions. Pakistan and Afghanistan have committed to jointly work together to get them de-listed. Here, the two governments have to convince the international community as well as the other major actors like the United States (US) about the utility of de-listing. One of the failures of the Qatar process lies in the fact that the US did not accept the Taliban demand to free their men from the Guantanamo Bay detention centre. So, there is no guarantee by the US of agreeing to such a demand by Pakistan and Afghanistan. The success of the reconciliation process becomes both urgent as well as imperative in the wake of re-election of US President Barack Obama. President Obama has to abide by his promise of withdrawing troops by 2014. Now, either the international community leaves back a vacuum created like in the post-1989 Afghanistan and once again let the Afghan soil become a breeding- ground for international terrorism, or the international community ensures a broad-based set-up having the backing of all Afghan groups to take over their own affairs. The international community, in general and this region in particular, cannot afford another civil war of unpredictable consequences in Afghanistan. And there are strong fears among various segments of the Pakistani society. The two sides have also been emphasising the very need to enhance cooperation in the fields of development, transit, trade, economic and investment linkages, the infra- structure and energy connectivity and people-to-people contacts. Pakistan and Afghanistan can become a hub of international trade and energy. The land-route-based trade from Far East Asia through South and Central Asia up to the West European countries is no more a Utopia, provided there is peace and tranquillity in Afghanistan.
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