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Employment Land Review Study Blackburn with Darwen Borough Council

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Employment Land Review Study Blackburn with Darwen Borough Council Employment Land Review Study Blackburn with Darwen Borough Council B102(e)/May 2019/ Final Report /BE Group 1 Employment Land Review Study Blackburn with Darwen Borough Council CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................... 3 1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................. 7 2.0 STRATEGIC CONTEXT ................................................................................ 11 3.0 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ................................................................................ 32 4.0 PROPERTY MARKET ASSESSMENT .......................................................... 42 5.0 STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATIONS ............................................................ 60 6.0 EMPLOYMENT LAND ASSESSMENT ......................................................... 72 7.0 CONCLUSIONS .......................................................................................... 103 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................... 115 Appendix 1 – List of Consultees Appendix 2 – Vacant Property Schedules Appendix 3 – Business Survey Appendix 4 – Blackburn with Darwen Site Proformas Appendix 5 – Sites Scoring Results Appendix 6 – Site Scoring System Appendix 7 – Blackburn with Darwen Employment Area Maps B102(e)/May 2019/ Final Report /BE Group 2 Employment Land Review Study Blackburn with Darwen Borough Council EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction i. This report provides an Employment Land Review Study to inform the next Blackburn with Darwen Local Plan. The purpose of the Study is to understand the supply and market demand side of employment land requirements within Blackburn with Darwen Borough (the Borough). It is developed in support of the Housing and Economic Needs Assessment (HENAS), being completed by GL Hearn, for Blackburn with Darwen and Hyndburn Boroughs, that sets out forecast scenarios for housing and economic growth. The study, combined with HENAS, updates previous employment land evidence base documents for the Borough. Based on the Brief, the overall objectives of the study are: • “To provide an up to date robust qualitative assessment of the current supply of employment land within the Borough; • To provide market intelligence on employment demand trends focusing on the local economy of the Borough with a comparative analysis to sub- regional (Pennine Lancashire and Lancashire); regional (North West England) and national trends; and • Consider the economic growth forecasts developed in the Housing and Economic Needs Assessment Study and provide an analysis of the Borough’s economy to identify the strengths/ weaknesses/ opportunities/ threats that should be taken into account in developing economic policies within the emerging Local Plan.” Methodology ii. A number of research methods have been used, including site visits, property market data analysis and interviews with property market stakeholders such as developers, investors and their agents. A survey of 50 private sector employers was completed and key public and business sector agencies, were consulted. Finally, the land supply has been assessed and measured against need, as forecast in HENAS. The methodology follows the National Planning Policy Framework and relevant Planning Practice Guidance. Findings iii. Manufacturing remains a strength of Blackburn with Darwen’s local economy, accounting for 17.3 percent of jobs locally in 2017 (10,934 jobs), well above wider averages. A significant decline, of some 2,400 jobs is forecast in manufacturing to B102(e)/May 2019/ Final Report /BE Group 3 Employment Land Review Study Blackburn with Darwen Borough Council 2036, although this will not necessarily result in a reduction in land needs for B1(c)/B2 space and even with this reduction, manufacturing will remain a key focus of the local economy. Decline in manufacturing jobs is also somewhat offset by a gain of 350-510 construction jobs. iv. Taken as whole the main private sector office-based sectors employ almost as many in the Borough as manufacturing – 11,205, 16.7 percent of employment of the workforce. Private sector office employment is forecast to grow significantly to 2036, a gain of some 3,190-3,240 jobs. v. Blackburn with Darwen’s dependence on public sector employment is somewhat above wider averages, with 28.9 percent of the Borough’s workforce employed in public administration, education and health, in 2017. Any future employment growth is expected to be focused in the health sector. vi. Some six years after the end of the recession, large companies which had pent up growth requirements have mostly met those requirements or found other ways to meet their space needs. Other large firms have put their plans on hold until the uncertainty over Brexit is ended. Thus short, and likely medium term, growth is focused in smaller businesses seeking primarily budget/moderate quality industrial space. Reflecting this, property market stakeholders suggest current market demand is focused at the smaller end of the market, up to 464 sqm. In comparison, historic transactions were for properties in a range of sizes of up to 5,000 sqm. Demand is for a mix of freehold and leasehold options. Reported rents extend up to £70/sqm, with £108 achieved for good quality trade options. vii. In terms of the local office market, a key strength can be found in the Borough’s serviced schemes. The average office deal transacted was for 297 sqm of floorspace. Property market stakeholders, who describe a mostly local and small- scale office market, with demand for smaller, leasehold suites of no more than 93 sqm. Rents of £108 – 150/ sqm are identified as achievable, although past transaction evidences suggest the current average is at the bottom of that scale, at around £108/sqm. viii. There is little doubt that the preferred location for businesses is the M65 Corridor area. Future development should be based around the motorways. This is most important for industrial units where easy HGV accessibility is key and where links to B102(e)/May 2019/ Final Report /BE Group 4 Employment Land Review Study Blackburn with Darwen Borough Council existing industrial estates of Shadsworth, Whitebirk, Walker Park and Roman Road and Blackburn Interchange can be made. The view of agents was that schemes should focus on smaller B1(c)/B2 industrial space rather than larger units of the kind currently being provided for at Frontier Park. ix. Views were mixed as to where new office space should be located. The Town Centre with its strong transport options, but constrained parking, is one option. Larger offices, which will need greater parking, should be focused in business parks, which are more likely to be delivered at the motorway junctions. However, there appears little appetite for the delivery of larger offices at present so it is expected that new space, delivered through refurbishment or new build, will focus towards Central Blackburn. Employment Land Supply and Need x. The maximum employment land supply, from sites put forward for analysis in this Study, is 79.97 ha in 19 sites. However, a review of site conditions and owner intentions suggests a realistic supply of 47.04 ha in 14 sites. This includes an estimated residual land supply of 24.00 ha at Frontier Park, of which 9.60 ha (40 percent) can be attributed to Blackburn with Darwen. xi. The HENAS Study provides an assessment of Objectively Assessed Needs for Blackburn with Darwen, using recognised forecast methods. It identifies needs of 54.1 ha over 2018-2036, of which some 56 percent should be for B8 uses, around a third for B2 uses and 11 percent for B1 uses. However, HENAs only applies a 5-year buffer, for choice, flexibility and an allowance for losses to the B1 need (5.8 ha). The B2 and B8 figures given are gross. If a 5-year buffer is applied to the B2/B8 sectoral need as well, the overall employment land requirement over 2018-36 increases by 13.4 ha to 67.5 ha. xii. Against this need, Blackburn with Darwen has a realistic employment land supply of 47.04 ha. This gives a supply shortfall of 7.1 ha, against needs. If the assumption, set out above, that a full 5-year buffer should be applied to need in all B-Class sectors, is accepted, then this gives a further need of 20.5 ha against the realistic land supply. Recommendations xiii. This report has had full regard to the requirements of the NPPF and the PPGs to encourage and deliver growth through the planning system. The key B102(e)/May 2019/ Final Report /BE Group 5 Employment Land Review Study Blackburn with Darwen Borough Council recommendation is that: 7.1 ha of additional B1/B2/B8 employment land is required to 2036, to meet the identified Objectively Assessed Needs. However, it is recommended that 7.1 ha be considered the minimum additional employment land required in Blackburn with Darwen, to 2036, to ensure the Borough retains a choice of sites for businesses and allows for any further losses in supply. If the requirement for a 5-year buffer across all B- Class sectors is accepted the needs increase to 20.5 ha, which can be considered the maximum additional land need for the Borough, to 2036. xiv. Other Recommendations include that: • Protection of the remaining employment land for B1/B2/B8 development, particularly key sites and defined employment areas, needs to be considered a policy priority. Further losses in the land supply, to alternative uses, should be resisted • Areas of search for new employment
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