TELEVISION DEMAND FOR THE TOUR DE FRANCE: THE IMPORTANCE OF OUTCOME UNCERTAINTY, PATRIOTISM AND DOPING Séminaire DESport March 9, 2012 Paris Prof. Dr. Daam Van Reeth HogeschoolHogeschool--UniversiteitUniversiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium Introduction - Cycling on TV – Literature - Model - Results – Future research ANALYSING TV VIEWING FOR CYCLING IS USEFUL TO: (1) TEAM SPONSORS TV exposure in the TdF is crucial for sponsors of cycling teams: – Rabobank invested 11 million € in its 2007 professional cycling team while three week TdF exposure (TV and newspapers) is valued at 15 million € (Rabobank, 2007). Introduction - Cycling on TV – Literature - Model - Results – Future research ANALYSING TV VIEWING FOR CYCLING IS USEFUL TO: (1) TEAM SPONSORS TV exposure in the TdF is crucial for sponsors of cycling teams: – Rabobank invested 11 million € in its 2007 professional cycling team while three week TdF exposure (TV and newspapers) is valued at 15 million € (Rabobank, 2007). – Because of presumed cocaine abuse, Tom Boonen was banned from participating in the 2008 TdF. According to team marketing director Philiep Caryn, his absence could cost the Quick-Step cycling team millions: “ Last year Quick- Step obtained 4 stage victories. These stage victories had a publicity value of two to three million euro .” (De Standaard, 2008) Introduction - Cycling on TV – Literature - Model - Results – Future research ANALYSING TV VIEWING FOR CYCLING IS USEFUL TO: (1) TEAM SPONSORS WHO REALLY WON THE TOUR OF FLANDERS 2011 ? Sylvain Chavanel Nick Nuyens Introduction - Cycling on TV – Literature - Model - Results – Future research ANALYSING TV VIEWING FOR CYCLING IS USEFUL TO: (1) TEAM SPONSORS WHO REALLY WON THE TOUR OF FLANDERS 2011 ? TEAM SAXO BANK WON Sylvain Chavanel THE RACE FROM A SPORTING POINT OF VIEW (but: team received only 2% of all media attention) Nick Nuyens Introduction - Cycling on TV – Literature - Model - Results – Future research ANALYSING TV VIEWING FOR CYCLING IS USEFUL TO: (1) TEAM SPONSORS WHO REALLY WON THE TOUR OF FLANDERS 2011 ? TEAM SAXO BANK WON Sylvain Chavanel THE RACE FROM A SPORTING POINT OF VIEW (but: team received only 2% of all media attention) TEAM QUICK-STEP WAS COMMERCIALLY THE MORE SUCCESFUL TEAM (team received over 10% of Nick Nuyens all media attention) Introduction - Cycling on TV – Literature - Model - Results – Future research ANALYSING TV VIEWING FOR CYCLING IS USEFUL TO: (2) RACE ORGANIZERS Is Giro d’Italia Angelo Zomegnan director about to be sacked? (CyclingNews, 2011-06-25) Rumours of Zomegnan’s demise first circulated during the Giro d’Italia dominated by Alberto Contador. Italian television was not happy with this year’s race and pointed the finger at Zomegnan, suggesting the extremely tough race route had reduced the appeal of the Giro. Since taking the position of race director, Zomegnan has helped raise the international profile of the Giro d’Italia . The introduction of dirt road sections and testing climbs produced some spectacular racing , especially in 2010. Zomegnan was indeed sacked a couple of months later Introduction - Cycling on TV – Literature - Model - Results – Future research ANALYSING TV VIEWING FOR CYCLING IS USEFUL TO: (3) TV BROADCASTERS The sport industry generates added value for TV broadcasters: - More than 70% of the free to air channels achieve a higher market share with sports programs in comparison to its average performance all genres combined. Introduction - Cycling on TV – Literature - Model - Results – Future research ANALYSING TV VIEWING FOR CYCLING IS USEFUL TO: (3) TV BROADCASTERS The sport industry generates added value for TV broadcasters: - More than 70% of the free to air channels achieve a higher market share with sports programs in comparison to its average performance all genres combined. - The market share of Canadian channel “ CBC ” rises to 29,9% when it airs sports from 5% for all its programming. In Belgium, in 2011 the Flemish public channel “ Eén ” dedicated 6% of its airtime to sport programming, recording an average market share of 46,4% versus an overall market share of 31,3%. Source : Television 2011, International Key Facts, RTL Group Introduction - Cycling on TV – Literature - Model - Results – Future research RESEARCH QUESTIONS • Research focus: “ What determines TV viewership for Tour de France (TdF) stages ?” • Specific research questions: – To what extent is TdF viewership driven by scheduling aspects? Race organizers, TV broadcasters – How relevant is the concept of outcome uncertainty in TdF viewing? Race organizers – How important is patriotism in watching the TdF? Team sponsors, TV broadcasters – Does doping affect TV interest in cycling? TV broadcasters, Team sponsors – Can TdF TV audiences be predicted accurately? TV broadcasters Introduction - Cycling on TV – Literature - Model - Results – Future research MY PREDICTION: THE EXPECTED 2011 TOUR DE FRANCE PEAK AND AVERAGE TV AUDIENCE IN FLANDERS (Remark: bold lines mark range of 1 standard deviation from the predicted value) 1.400.000 1.200.000 1.000.000 800.000 600.000 400.000 200.000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Introduction - Cycling on TV – Literature - Model - Results – Future research CYCLING AND TELEVISION: A PERFECT FIT Cycling is a sport that can only be understood well through access to the media (not in a stadion, (usually) not on a circuit, …) Introduction - Cycling on TV – Literature - Model - Results – Future research CYCLING AND TELEVISION: A PERFECT FIT Cycling is a sport that can only be understood well through access to the media (not in a stadion, (usually) not on a circuit, …) Cycling is an ideal sport to promote tourism (showcase to the world for a city or a region) Introduction - Cycling on TV – Literature - Model - Results – Future research CYCLING AND TELEVISION: A PERFECT FIT Cycling is a sport that can only be understood well through access to the media (not in a stadion, (usually) not on a circuit, …) Cycling is an ideal sport to promote tourism (showcase to the world for a city or a region) Cycling is not subject to many technical rules or game regulations, which makes it easy to understand (low viewing barriers) Introduction - Cycling on TV – Literature - Model - Results – Future research CYCLING AND TELEVISION: A PERFECT FIT Cycling is a sport that can only be understood well through access to the media (not in a stadion, (usually) not on a circuit, …) Cycling is an ideal sport to promote tourism (showcase to the world for a city or a region) Cycling is not subject to many technical rules or game regulations, which makes it easy to understand (low viewing barriers) In spite of its uncertain duration, cycling is easy to fit in existing TV schedules (in Europe, it is an “afternoon filler” and not an “evening prime time contender”) Introduction - Cycling on TV – Literature - Model - Results – Future research CYCLING AND TELEVISION: A PERFECT FIT Cycling is a sport that can only be understood well through access to the media (not in a stadion, (usually) not on a circuit, …) Cycling is an ideal sport to promote tourism (showcase to the world for a city or a region) Cycling is not subject to many technical rules or game regulations, which makes it easy to understand (low viewing barriers) In spite of its uncertain duration, cycling is easy to fit in existing TV schedules (in Europe, it is an “afternoon filler” and not an “evening prime time contender”) Cycling is probably the sport with the highest number of non-fans watching Introduction - Cycling on TV – Literature - Model - Results – Future research WHY STUDY THE TOUR DE FRANCE? It is the most important and best watched cycling race in the world: - Together with the cobblestones classics Paris-Roubaix and the Ronde van Vlaanderen it is the only cycling race to receive worldwide live coverage. Introduction - Cycling on TV – Literature - Model - Results – Future research WHY STUDY THE TOUR DE FRANCE? It is the most important and best watched cycling race in the world: - Together with the cobblestones classics Paris-Roubaix and the Ronde van Vlaanderen it is the only cycling race to receive worldwide live coverage. - 190 nations had TV images of the 2011 TdF, with 60 channels broadcasting the race live, double the number from a decade ago. - For some stages average audience ranges between 15 and 20 million, total viewers for top mountain stages is between 40 and 50 million. Introduction - Cycling on TV – Literature - Model - Results – Future research WHY STUDY THE TOUR DE FRANCE? It is the most important and best watched cycling race in the world: - Together with the cobblestones classics Paris-Roubaix and the Ronde van Vlaanderen it is the only cycling race to receive worldwide live coverage. - 190 nations had TV images of the 2011 TdF, with 60 channels broadcasting the race live, double the number from a decade ago. - For some stages average audience ranges between 15 and 20 million, total viewers for top mountain stages is between 40 and 50 million. - The TdF is amongst the 10 most watched sports events worldwide (next to the Super Bowl, Champion’s League, Wimbledon, World Athletics Championship, U.S. Masters, and top F1, Motor cycling, Badminton, Basketball and Baseball events). Introduction - Cycling on TV – Literature - Model - Results – Future research WHY STUDY FLANDERS? (… apart from the fact that I live there) Introduction - Cycling on TV – Literature - Model - Results – Future research WHY STUDY FLANDERS? (… apart from the fact that I live there) TOP 10 SPORTS BROADCASTS FLANDERS, 2011 Source : Television 2011, International Key Facts, RTL Group Introduction - Cycling on TV – Literature - Model - Results – Future research TOP 10 SPORT BROADCASTS PER COUNTRY 2010 (Source: Television 2010, International Key Facts, RTL Group) Football Cycling American Athletics Boxing Formula Tennis Rugby Hand- Basket- Base- Sumo Biathlon Skating Moto Football 1 ball ball ball wrestling racing Belgium 4 6 North Belgium 10 South France 10 Germany 5 3 1 1 Italy 8 1 1 The 7 3 Netherlands (speed) Spain 10 Turkey 10 United 5 3 1 1 Kingdom Japan 1 1 5 1 1 1 (figure) U.S.A.