Global Evaluating the Development effectiveness of Institute the rural minimum Working Paper living standard Series guarantee (Dibao) 2018-022 programme in August 2016 China Nanak Kakwani1, Shi Li2, Xiaobing Wang3, Mengbing Zhu4 1 China Institute of Income Distribution, Beijing Normal University, P.R. China, and School of Economics, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; Email:
[email protected] 2 China Institute of Income Distribution, Beijing Normal University, P. R. China. Email:
[email protected] 3 Department of Economics, The University of Manchester, UK, and China Institute of Income Distribution, Beijing Normal University, China. Email:
[email protected]. 4 China Institute of Income Distribution, Beijing Normal University, P. R. China. Email:
[email protected] ISBN: 978-1-909336-58-2 Cite this paper as: Nanak Kakwani1, Shi Li, 2 Xiaobing Wang,3 Mengbing Zhu4 (2018) Evaluating the effectiveness of the rural minimum living standard guarantee (Dibao) programme in China. GDI Working Paper 2018-22. Manchester: The University of Manchester. www.gdi.manchester.ac.uk Abstract China’s rural minimum living standard guarantee programme (Dibao) is the largest social safety-net programme in the world. Given the scale and the popularity of rural Dibao, rigorous evaluation is needed to demonstrate the extent to which the programme meets its intended objective of reducing poverty. This paper develops new methods and uses data from the 2013 Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP2013) to examine the targeting performance of the rural Dibao programme. The paper has found that the rural Dibao programme suffers from very low targeting accuracy, high exclusion error, and inclusion error, and yields a significant negative social rate of return.