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Fueling How Fracked Gas, Cheap Oil, and Unburnable are Driving the Plastics Boom

• Fossil fuels — oil, gas, and coal — are the primary materials from which almost all plastics are made. • Cheap shale gas in the United States is fueling massive new investments in plastics in- frastructure in the US and abroad, with $164 billion planned for 264 new facilities or expansion projects in the US alone. Many projects, including the largest, remain in the or planning stages and face significant public opposition. • China is also investing heavily in plastics infrastructure, including heavy investments in expensive, carbon-intensive coal-to-olefins . • The fracking boom is also fueling new plastics plants in Europe, which will rely heavily on American . • A recent wave of plastics investments in the Middle East will further intensify the indus- try’s search for new plastics markets and its efforts to increase plastics consumption. • By 2025, production capacity is expected to increase by 33-36% for both ethylene and propylene. If constructed, this massive expansion in capacity could lock in produc- tion for decades, undermining efforts to reduce consumption and reverse the plastics crisis.

Excess production and consump- marine environments, coastal com- ing a massive investment in new up- tion of plastic, especially single-use munities, food chains, and more, stream plastic production facilities plastics commonly used in packag- harming people and the environ- which, if constructed, will produce ing, is causing widespread contam- ment upon which they depend. the fundamental materials from ination of the environment, includ- which most other plastics are made. ing pervasive plastics in Recent shifts in shale gas develop- This new wave of US investment fol- the world’s oceans. This issue affects ment in the United States are driv- lows recent or ongoing expansions

How Fracked Gas, Cheap Oil, and Unburnable Coal are Driving the Plastics Boom | 1 | Center for International Environmental Law Ethylene and Propylene Ethylene is the most important base chemical in the plastics sec- tor.4 Ethylene is produced primarily from natural gas liquids (NGL), a by-product of natural gas explora- tion, or from naphtha, a product of crude oil refining.5 The choice of feedstock is geographically based — because natural gas is hard to , NGL are used primarily in North America and the Middle East, where natural gas is abundant.6 Naphtha is primarily used in China and Western Europe.7 Ethylene is a chemical,

bilyjan/Pixabay and its competitiveness is based on cost. Because approximately two- in China, the Middle East, and oth- gas boom in the United States and thirds of the cost of ethylene is the er parts of Europe and Asia. As the underutilized coal in China. cost of the energy inputs required for world works to address the growing its production, the relative competi- crisis of plastics in the environment, Although there are many kinds tiveness of ethylene producers using oceans, and human bodies, it must of plastic, the five “standard plas- NGL versus naphtha correlates to simultaneously confront the role tics” constitute approximately 85% the relative cost of gas compared to of expanding plastics production of world plastic consumption by oil. Currently, the cheapest produc- 1 in that crisis. If these facilities get weight. These five plastics are: ers are in the Middle East, followed 8 built, they may lock in a world of by the United States. • (32% of glob- even cheaper, more ubiquitous, and al demand); After ethylene, the most important more disposable plastics for decades • (23%); chemical block of plastics is to come. • or PVC propylene.9 The cracking process for (16%); both NGLs and naphtha have tradi- From Fossils to • (7%); and tionally produced propylene along- Plastics • polyethylene terephthalate side ethylene. However, many of the or PET (7%).2 new ethylene production facilities, Fossil fuels — oil, gas, and coal both those planned and in use, are — are the primary materials from Propylene is the primary feedstock designed only to process , the which almost all plastics are made. for polypropylene; ethylene is the primary component of NGL. This Because the cost of fossil fuels rep- primary feedstock for the other process produces almost no propyl- 3 resents a large share of the cost of four. ene and has led to concern regard- plastic, trends in markets ing the “propylene gap” (propylene The majority of plastic production heavily influence where companies production in the United States fell by weight, and much of the future choose to invest in new production 40% from 2005 to 2012).10 Chem- of the plastics sector, can therefore facilities and which facilities they ical companies are now building be understood by looking specifi- try to build. The two main drivers “on-purpose propylene production” cally at trends in propylene and eth- of investment today are the natural (OPP) plants to make propylene di- ylene production.

How Fracked Gas, Cheap Oil, and Unburnable Coal are Driving the Plastics Boom | 2 | Center for International Environmental Law rectly, instead of as a co-product of increase in production capacity and Dow Chemical recently finished ethylene production.11 a geographic expansion of produc- construction on its own $6 billion tion facilities. Beginning in 2012, project in Freeport, Texas,19 and Oc- It is also possible to produce eth- cidental Petroleum just opened its ylene and propylene from coal, al- It is difficult to overstate $1.5 billion ethane cracker in Ingle- though this is rare outside of China. side, Texas.20 However, China is investing heavily the significance of the in its coal-to-olefins technology, and natural gas boom to the These investments are not slow- this process may expand to become plastics . The ing. In April 2016, the American a more significant contributor to the Chemistry Council announced that ethylene and propylene markets.12 change has been described by 2023 the will as a “once-in-a-generation spend over $164 billion on 264 new United States opportunity” and a “com- facilities or expansion projects in the 21 ing renaissance” for North United States. At the time, more The increased availability of cheap than half of the projects were still natural gas in the United States has American plastics. in the planning phase,22 with sev- led directly to a drop in the cost of eral new projects announced since production for ethylene, as ethane the industry began then.23 For example, in March 2017, (the primary component of NGL) making significant investments in Total announced a $1.7 billion joint is similarly cheap and abundant. It ethylene production capacity in the venture with Borealis and Nova to is difficult to overstate the signifi- United States to take advantage of build a new ethane cracker in Port cance of the natural gas boom to the cheap chemical feedstocks.17 Arthur, Texas, as well as a new poly- plastics industry. The fossil fuel and ethylene plant in Bayport, Texas.24 plastics industries view the change For example, Chevron Phillips has almost completed a $6 billion ex- The American Chemistry Coun- as a “once-in-a-generation opportu- 18 nity” and a “coming renaissance” for pansion in Cedar Bayou, Texas. cil expects investment to continue North American plastics.13 The pres- ident of the American Chemistry Council — an industry that represents major petrochemical companies and plastic resin produc- ers in the United States14 — further stated, “Thanks to the shale gas pro- duction boom, the United States is the most attractive place in the world to invest in chemical and plas- tics . It’s an astonish- ing gain in competitiveness.”15 Some within the industry are less certain about the prospects for fu- ture investment and question the long-term prospects for major new investments in increasingly saturat- ed markets.16 Still, this internal in- dustry disagreement is not slowing skeeze/Pixabay down investments in the US. This “renaissance” of North Amer- ican plastics is leading to both an

How Fracked Gas, Cheap Oil, and Unburnable Coal are Driving the Plastics Boom | 3 | Center for International Environmental Law Flooded refinery storage tanks after Hurricane Harvey, Port Arthur, Texas Aaron Sprecher/Greenpeace at over a billion dollars annually The American Chemistry through at least 2024, peaking at States were located outside of Texas Council projects the chem- 33 over $9 billion in 2019.25 or Louisiana. ical industry will spend Among the largest group of projects $164 billion on 264 new In addition to the facilities them- in the US Gulf region is a joint ven- selves, fossil fuel and chemical com- ture by ExxonMobil and Saudi Basic plastics facilities or expan- panies are investing in pipelines to Industries Corporation (SABIC). sion projects by 2023. move chemical feedstocks. For ex- The deal was inked in Saudi Arabia ample, one $2-3 billion pipeline during the Trump Administration’s alone.31 Before the shale gas boom, proposed in Pennsylvania has been first overseas trip, and with Rex Til- many of the crackers in the United dubbed the “Plastics Pipeline” by lerson — former CEO of ExxonMo- States were capable of processing the extensive movement of com- bil, now the US Secretary of State either naphtha or NGLs. Several of munities and oppos- 34 — in the room.26 The $20 billion those crackers were forced to close ing it. The plastics boom is also initiative proposes “11 major chem- due to the relative competitiveness driving investments in new export ical, refining, lubricant and liquefied of European and Asian producers. infrastructure. The Port of Hous- natural gas projects,”27 including a The new facilities being constructed, ton alone is investing $700 million $10 billion ethane cracker — the in contrast, are typically only capa- in expansions to accommodate the 35 largest in the world — to be built ble of processing ethane and can- plastics export boom. in Portland, Texas.28 This proposed not be used with naphtha, , project, however, has been met methanol, or other feedstocks. Europe with fierce resistance from the local community.29 The project is still in Whereas most of US ethylene pro- Although Europe is an important its early stages, and is scheduled to duction takes place in the Gulf of region of plastics and petrochem- open in 2024.30 Mexico, six new cracking facili- ical production, no new facilities ties have been proposed for North have been built there for some time. The industry has proposed over Dakota, West Virginia, Ohio, and Cheap gas, first in the Middle East twenty new or expanded crackers Pennsylvania.32 Prior to 2017, only and now in the United States, along- and ethylene production facilities three ethane crackers in the United side the rise of plastics production in

How Fracked Gas, Cheap Oil, and Unburnable Coal are Driving the Plastics Boom | 4 | Center for International Environmental Law China, has put European producers plastics producers, relying on naph- East Asia at a cost disadvantage. tha, are uncompetitive with produc- ers using cheap gas from the Middle In the mid-2000s, Asia surpassed Breaking this trend, chemical com- East and the United States. How- Europe as the largest plastics-pro- pany INEOS recently announced ever, INEOS plans to use gas from ducing region, with the overwhelm- it intends to build a new propane ing majority of that production cen- dehydrogenation plant (for produc- INEOS intends to build a tered in China. ing propylene), possibly in Antwerp, Belgium, as well as expand two other new plant for producing China is already the world’s leading complexes.36 The proposed Antwerp plastic precursors in Bel- propylene producer41 and is current- plant would produce up to 750,000 gium, as well as expand ly building dozens of plants to turn metric tons of propylene, while the both gas oil and methanol (from proposed expansions — in Grange- two other complexes, rep- coal) into propylene.42 Whereas mouth, Scotland, and Rafnes, Nor- resenting “the first sub- growth in propylene production is way — would add an additional stantial investments in the projected to grow 2.3% and 4.2% 900,000 metric tons of ethylene annually in the US and Middle East, capacity.37 As INEOS Chairman European chemicals indus- respectively, for the next decade, Jim Ratcliffe noted, “These projects try for many years.” China is expected to increase its represent the first substantial invest- propylene production a staggering ments in the European chemicals in- the US in its facilities,39 dramatically 6.9% annually through 2025.43 dustry for many years.”38 reducing its costs of production. As of June 2017, shipments of US liq- China has already increased both These projects are made possible uefied natural gas began arriving in its capacity and production of ole- because American companies now Europe.40 fins, primarily ethylene and propyl- have the ability to ship liquid natu- ene, from coal. From 2011 through ral gas across the Atlantic. European 2015, coal-to-olefins capacity grew

Qiu Bo/Greenpeace Jinjie Coal Chemical Industrial Park, China

How Fracked Gas, Cheap Oil, and Unburnable Coal are Driving the Plastics Boom | 5 | Center for International Environmental Law nearly 700%, from 1 million to 7.92 tive to continue building these high two in Malaysia, and one in South million tons annually.44 Over the capital cost CTO projects. However, Korea.55 same period, Chinese coal-to-olefins social incentives still exist for building output increased from 430 thousand these plants to foster downstream plas- The Middle East and tons to 6.48 million.45 tic processing as well as upstream coal employment in China’s poorer Western Asia China’s investment in coal-to-ole- interior regions.”50 fins technology is rare and the result From 2008 to 2016, most olefin of China’s lack of natural gas and These investments also clash with capacity expansions were focused oversupply of coal. In 2015, BASF China’s expressed environmental on the Middle East. As recently as was planning to build the first-ever goals and its shared planetary inter- January 2014, half of new ethylene methanol-to-propylene plant out- est in a safe climate, as coal-to-olefins projects globally were located in the 56 side of China;46 but by 2016, the production is massively carbon in- Persian Gulf. Sadara Chemical project had been postponed.47 tensive — a fact not lost on industry Company, a joint venture between competitors. Olivier Thorel, VP of Dow Chemical and Saudi Aram- The development of this technology global intermediates and ventures at co, is a $20 billion project in Saudi is extremely important to the future Shell Chemicals, described the pro- Arabia that will have a capacity of 57 cess as “massive CO2 machines that over 3 million metric tons per year. China is already the make chemicals as a sidestream.”51 The joint venture was established in 2011 and is still being constructed.58 world’s leading propylene China is also investing heavily in tra- producer and is currently ditional forms of ethylene and pro- This period of rapid expansion seems building dozens of plants pylene production. On its current to have ended, as attention has shift- trajectory, China could consume ed to cheap ethane feedstocks in the to turn both gas oil and 90% more crude oil in the produc- United States and investments in methanol (from coal) into tion of in 2030 than China. (Notably, the Portland plant propylene. it did in 2015.52 By 2020, “uncon- described above is a joint venture ventional” production is expected between Exxon and SABIC.) Busi- to reach 30% and 45% of China’s ness Monitor International notes of ethylene and propylene produc- that for the Middle East, “the days tion. In addition to coal, this process ethylene and propylene production capacity, respectively. Even under of new massive olefins projects may would allow natural gas (methane) 59 this scenario, between half and two- be over.” Ongoing investments in to be converted into olefins, which Oman and Iran, however, suggest may become necessary as demand thirds of China’s olefin production will still be derived from oil.53 this pronouncement may be pre- for fossil fuels decreases. Some ob- mature.60 Although new buildout servers “expect China to invest more The most intense concentration of is slowing, SABIC and Aramco an- than $100 billion in coal-to-chem- plastics capacity outside China is nounced in October 2016 the ac- icals technology in the next five 48 celerated construction of a direct years,” although at this point, coal- Some observers “expect oil-to-chemicals plant in Saudi Ara- to-olefins production is still signifi- bia,61 and Sinopec announced as re- cantly more expensive than produc- China to invest more 49 cently as March 2017 their “strategic tion using naphtha or NGLs. than $100 billion in agreement to study opportunities coal-to-chemicals technol- for joint projects in Saudi Arabia As ICIS petrochemical market an- 62 alysts have observed, China’s heavy ogy in the next five years.” and China.” investment in this technology may Moreover, even as new buildout be driven more by labor policy than in Singapore, which has seen recent slows, this heavy recent investment consumer needs: major investments from ExxonMo- in plastics infrastructure will provide bil, among others.54 In addition, “Sitting high on the ethylene cost ongoing incentives for the Middle there are currently at least two eth- East to maintain and increase its curve, there is little economic incen- ylene projects underway in India,

How Fracked Gas, Cheap Oil, and Unburnable Coal are Driving the Plastics Boom | 6 | Center for International Environmental Law Projected Supply Capacity and Price of Ethylene from Various Sources, 2018*

*Udo Jung et al., Why the Middle East’s Petrochemical Industry Needs to Reinvent Itself, BCG (Nov. 7, 2016), https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/process-indus- tries-energy-environment-middle-easts-petrochemical-industry-reinvent-itself/. plastic production and search for to identify or create new markets, plants will become less profitable new plastics markets. new consumers, and an ever-grow- over time. Once built, however, this ing flow of plastic packaging and infrastructure will operate, locking Conclusion waste. Many more remain in the in incentives for the petrochemicals planning and construction phases industry to produce a flood of new The shale gas boom in the United and may be challenged or halted, plastics for decades to come. States, together with growing pro- due to public opposition, financial duction in China spurred in part by risk, or changing market forces. If With expanded plastics production coal-to-olefins technology, is driving and consumption will come more global investment in new ethylene If all of this production spills and emissions from chemical and propylene production facilities. plants, more plastic clogging shore- capacity is constructed, lines and killing marine life, and By 2025, global production capaci- it may lock in a massive more micro-plastic particles — and 65 ty for ethylene is projected to grow expansion of cheap plastic the pollutants they may absorb — from 170 million metric tons to 230 finding their way into food chains million tons. Capacity for propylene production for decades. and tap water. Just as importantly, it could rise from 120 to 160 million will perpetuate a fossil fuel economy tons.63 In total, production capacity all of this production capacity is that underpins both the climate cri- for these critical plastic feedstocks is constructed, it may lock in a massive sis and the plastics crisis, while im- poised to grow by 33% or more in expansion of cheap plastic produc- pacting frontline communities and less than a decade.64 tion for decades. the wider public at every stage of its toxic lifecycle. Many new plants have already been This over-construction and overpro- built, bringing with them the need duction creates a serious risk that

How Fracked Gas, Cheap Oil, and Unburnable Coal are Driving the Plastics Boom | 7 | Center for International Environmental Law Endnotes

1. See PlasticsEurope, The Plastic Industry 3 https:// US-Chemical-Investment-Linked-to-Shale-Gas- Billion in Saudi Deals on Sidelines of Trump’s committee.iso.org/files/live/sites/tc61/files/ Reaches-100-Billion.html. Trip, Washington Examiner (May 20, 2017, The%20Plastic%20Industry%20Berlin%20 12:31 PM), http://www.washingtonexaminer. Aug%202016%20-%20Copy.pdf (last visited 16. See Ed Crooks, Chemical Industry Split com/exxon-and-others-sign-over-50-billion- July 11, 2017). about Case for More US Plants, Financial in-saudi-deals-on-sidelines-of-trumps-trip/ Times (May 22, 2017), https://www. article/2623711. 2. See id. ft.com/content/28649ac0-2f23-11e7-9555- 23ef563ecf9a. 28. See Associated Press, Exxon Mobil Plans Multi- 3. See What is a Cracker and Why Should I Care?, Billion Dollar Plant Near Texas Gulf, U.S. News American Fuel and Petrochemicals 17. See Food and Water Watch, supra note 13, (Apr. 17, 2017, 6:07 PM), https://www.usnews. Manufacturers, http://education.afpm.org/ at 1. com/news/best-states/texas/articles/2017-04-19/ petrochemicals/what-is-a-cracker-and-why- exxon-mobil-plans-10b-petrochemical-plant- should-i-care/ (last visited July 11, 2017). 18. See Jordan Blum, Chevron Phillips’ $6 Billion near-texas-coast. Expansion Nears Completion, Fuel Fix (Oct. 4. Erin Voegele, Feeding the Chemical Market, 7, 2016), http://fuelfix.com/blog/2016/10/07/ 29. See Jordan Blum, $10 Billion Exxon-Saudi Ethanol Producer (Mar. 5, 2012), http:// chevron-phillips-6-billion-expansion-nears- Project Concerns Texas Communities, Houston www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/8617/ completion/. Chronicle (Jan. 31, 2017, 10:51 AM), feeding-the-chemical-market. http://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/ 19. See Press Release, Dow Chemical Company, energy/article/10-billion-Exxon-Saudi-project- 5. See Mark Eramo, Global Ethylene Market Dow Completes Construction of ELITE™ concerns-Texas-10892912.php. Outlook: Low Cost Feedstocks Fuel The Enhanced Polyethylene Production Unit in Next Wave Of Investments In North Freeport, Texas (Jun. 6, 2017), http://www.dow. 30. See Associated Press, supra note 28. America and China 16 (2013), available at com/en-us/news/press-releases/dow-completes- http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/ construction-of-elite-enhanced-polyethylene- 31. See Food and Water Watch, supra note 13, IROL/11/110877/05_Global_Ethylene_ production-unit-in-freeport-texas. at 3. Market_Outlook_Eramo.pdf. 20. See Jordan Blum, Occidental’s Massive 32. See id. 6. See Mitsubishi Chemical Techno-Research, Petrochemical Plant Comes Online in Texas, Global Supply and Demand of Petrochemical Fuel Fix (Mar. 2, 2017), http://fuelfix. 33. See id. Products relied on LPG as Feedstock (Mar. com/blog/2017/03/02/occidentals-massive- 7, 2017), available at http://www.lpgc.or.jp/ petrochemical-plant-comes-online-in-texas/. 34. See Leslie Krowchenko, Pennsylvania Study Sees $2-3 Billion-Dollar Boost From Sunoco corporate/information/program5_Japan2.pdf Pipeline, Del. Cnty. Daily Times (Apr. 2, [hereinafter Mitsubishi Presentation]. 21. See American Chemistry Council, Shale Gas and New U.S. Chemical Industry Investment: 2017, 10:44 PM), http://www.delcotimes.com/ 7. See id. at 9. $164 Billion and Counting 1 (Apr. 2016), article/DC/20170402/NEWS/170409947; available at https://www.slideshare.net/ and FOOD AND WATER WATCH, The Trans-Atlantic Plastics Pipeline (May 2017) 8. See id. at 2. MarcellusDN/acc-shale-gas-and-new-us- available at https://www.foodandwaterwatch. chemical-industry-investment-164-billion-and- 9. See Voegele , supra note 4. org/ insight/trans-atlantic-plastics-pipeline-how- counting. pennsylvanias-fracking-boom-crosses-atlantic. 10. See Jan H. Schut, How Shale Gas is Changing 22. Id.at 3. propylene, Plastics (Feb. 35. Jordan Blum, Houston Prepares for its Plastics and Chemicals Export Boom, Houston 20, 2013), https://plasticsengineeringblog. 23. See, e.g., Al Greenwood, DuPont Joins New US Chronicle (August 25, 2016), at http://www. com/2013/02/20/how-shale-gas-is-changing- Cracker Expansion Wave, ICIS (Jun. 21, 2017, propylene/. houstonchronicle.com/ business/energy/ 6:56 PM), https://www.icis.com/resources/ article/Houston-prepares-for-its-plastics-and- news/2017/06/21/10117759/dupont-joins- chemicals-9185520.php. 11. See id. new-us-cracker-expansion-wave/. 36. See Jonathan Lopez, INEOS Plans PDH Plant, 12. See Gerald Ondrey, Methanol-to-Olefins Plant 24. See Press Release, Total, USA: $1.7 Billion Starts Up in China, Chemical Engineering Cracker Expansions in Europe, ICIS (June Investment to Expand Total’s Petrochemicals 12, 2017), https://www.icis.com/resources/ (Feb. 22, 2017), http://www.chemengonline. Activities in Texas (Mar. 27, 2017), http:// com/methanol-to-olefins-plant-starts-up-in- news/2017/06/12/10115066/ineos-plans-pdh- www.total.com/en/media/news/press-releases/ plant-cracker-expansions-in-europe/. china. usa-17-billion-investment-expand-totals- petrochemicals-activities-texas. 13. Food and Water Watch, How Fracking 37. See Press Release, INEOS, INEOS Plans Supports the Plastic Industry 2 (2017), Massive European Expansion Programme (Jun. 25. See American Chemistry Council, The 12, 2017), https://www.ineos.com/news/ineos- available at https://www.foodandwaterwatch. Rising Competitive Advantage of U.S. org/sites/default/files/ib_1702_fracking-plastic- group/ineos-plans-massive-european-expansion- Plastics (2015), available at https://plastics. programme/. web.pdf. americanchemistry.com/Education-Resources/ Publications/The-Rising-Competitive- 14. See generally American Chemistry Council, 38. Id. Advantage-of-US-Plastics.pdf https://www.americanchemistry.com/ (last 39. See Andrew Ward, Ineos to Spend €2bn on visited Sept. 15, 2017). 26. See Steve Horn, Tillerson Present as Exxon Signed Expanding Petrochemicals Capacity, Financial Major Deal with Saudi Arabia During Trump 15. Press Release, American Chemistry Council, Times (Jun. 12, 2017), https://www. Visit, DeSmog Blog (May 30, 2017, 4:58 PM), U.S. Chemical Investment Linked to Shale Gas ft.com/content/66c9b43a-4f62-11e7-a1f2- https://www.desmogblog.com/2017/05/30/rex- Reaches $100 Billion (Feb. 20, 2014), available db19572361bb. tillerson-exxon-saudi-arabia-trump-visit-deal. at https://www.americanchemistry.com/Media/ 40. See id. PressReleasesTranscripts/ACC-news-releases/ 27. John Siciliano, Exxon and Others Sign Over $50

How Fracked Gas, Cheap Oil, and Unburnable Coal are Driving the Plastics Boom | 8 | Center for International Environmental Law 41. See Mitsubishi Presentation, supra note 6, at 11. Petrochemical Industry Needs to Reinvent Eng’g News, at 15, available at http://cen. Itself, BCG (Nov. 7, 2016), https://www. acs.org/articles/92/i2/Middle-East-Capacity- 42. See Jan H. Schut, How Shale Gas Is Changing bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/process- growing-competition.html Propylene, Plastics Engineering (Feb. industries-energy-environment-middle-easts- 20, 2013), https://plasticsengineeringblog. petrochemical-industry-reinvent-itself/. 57. See Who We Are, Sadara, http://www.sadara. com/2013/02/20/how-shale-gas-is-changing- com/en/about/WhoWeAre (last visited Sept. propylene/. 50. See Joseph Chang, China Coal-to-Olefins (CTO) 15, 2017). Investment to Slow, ICIS (May 26, 2016, 43. See Mitsubishi Presentation, supra note 6, at 11. 9:38 PM), https://www.icis.com/resources/ 58. See id. news/2016/05/26/10002356/commentary- 44. See Estimating Carbon Emissions from China’s china-coal-to-olefins-cto-investment-to-slow/. 59. See Scott, supra note 56. Coal-to-Chemical Industry During the “13th Five-year Plan” Period, Greenpeace 5 51. Id. 60. See PCI Wood Mackenzie, Global 2017 (2017), http://www.greenpeace.org/eastasia/ Ethylene Asset Map, available at https:// Global/eastasia/publications/reports/climate- 52. See Ann Koh and Alfred Cang, A $24 Billion www.pciwoodmac.com/global-ethylene-cracker- energy/2017/FINAL-%20Estimating%20 China Refinery Sees a Great Future in Plastics, map/. carbon%20emissions%20frmo%20 Bloomberg (Sept. 20, 2016, 5:00 PM), https:// China%27s%20Coal-to-Chemical%20 www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09- 61. See Vivian Nereim & Sam Wilkin, Sabic, Saudi Industry%20during%20the%2013th%20Five- 20/a-24-billion-china-refinery-bets-on-a-great- Aramco Form Team to Rush Oil-to-Chemicals year%20Plan%20period%20.pdf. future-in-plastics. Project, Bloomberg (Oct. 19, 2016, 6:05 AM), https://www.bloomberg.com/news/ 45. See id. 53. See Becky Zhang, Argus, Asia Olefins, What articles/2016-10-19/sabic-saudi-aramco-form- Do We Expect for 2017? 30 (Nov. 9, 2017), team-to-rush-oil-to-chemicals-project. 46. See Jeffrey S. Plotkin, heT Propylene Gap: How available at http://www.argusmedia.jp/~/media/ Can It Be Filled?, American Chemical Society files/pdfs/regional-specific/jp/downloads/events/ 62. Sabic, Sinopec to Study Establishing Second (Sept. 14, 2015), https://www.acs.org/content/ asiaolefins-outlook-becky-nov-2016.pdf?la=en. JV, Plastic News Europe (Mar. 28, acs/en/pressroom/cutting-edge-chemistry/the- 2017), http://www.plasticsnewseurope.com/ propylene-gap-how-can-it-be-filled.html. 54. See Singapore Chemical Plant, ExxonMobil. article/20170328/PNE/170329903/sabic- com, http://www.exxonmobil.com.sg/en-sg/ sinopec-to-study-establishing-second-jv. 47. See Press Release, BASF, BASF postpones company/business-and-operations/operations/ decision on natural gas-based propylene singapore-chemical-plant-overview (last visited 63. See Mitsubishi Presentation, supra note 6, at 7. investment in Freeport, Texas (June 6, Sept. 19, 2017). 2016), available at https://www.basf. 64. See id. com/en/company/news-and-media/news- 55. See PCI Wood Mackenzie, Global 2017 65. See, e.g., Peter Wardrop et al, Chemical releases/2016/06/p-16-225.html. Ethylene Asset Map, available at https://www. Pollutants Sorbed to Ingested Microbeads from pciwoodmac.com/global-ethylene-cracker-map/. 48. See Ondrey, supra note 12. Personal Care Products Accumulate in Fish, 50(7) 56. See Alex Scott, Middle East: Capacity is Growing, Envtl. Sci. & Tech. 4037 (2016), available 49. See Udo Jung et al., Why the Middle East’s But So Is The Competition, 92(2) Chem. & at http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acs. est.5b06280.

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How Fracked Gas, Cheap Oil, and Unburnable Coal are Driving the Plastics Boom is the second in an ongoing series, Fueling Plastics, that examines the links between plastics and fossil fuels. How Fracked Gas, Cheap Oil, and Unburnable Coal are Driving the Plastics Boom by The Center for International Environmental Law is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Cover image: Colin O’Connor/Greenpeace

How Fracked Gas, Cheap Oil, and Unburnable Coal are Driving the Plastics Boom | 9 | Center for International Environmental Law