UTAH INFORMED VISUAL INTELLECTION FOR 2017

In Partnership with the Salt Lake Chamber At the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, we develop and share economic, demographic and public policy data and research that help individuals and the community make informed decisions. ew York Times columnist and Pulitzer Prize winner Thomas Friedman says if you want to be optimistic about the future, stand on your head and see the world from the bottom up. Your perspective will start with communities, extend to states, and progress to the nation Nand the world. The closer you are to the bottom of this progression, the more positive will be your outlook. He says the entrepreneurship and innovation happening at the community level propels his bright outlook.

In this, the second edition of Utah Informed, we share his to clarify facts, discuss ideas, prevent and solve problems, optimism. The tables, charts, ideas, and schematics shared and, ultimately, thrive. The partnership with the Salt Lake in this book present a microcosm of the many challenges Chamber helps us fulfill this mission. and opportunities we face. The great reason for optimism In this booklet, we present what we call “visual is that Utah community leaders rely on sound data to intellection.” Each page forces the viewer to consider a make decisions. Pair this data-driven orientation with the compelling trend, a new idea, or an aspirational thought. extraordinary innovation and entrepreneurship that occurs The information may help you connect a few dots. It may in Utah, and you have a winning combination. also leave you wanting, not knowing exactly what to think. Philanthropist Kem C. Gardner and other community That is intentional. We want this booklet to make you think. leaders have endowed the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute We hope this 2017 edition of Utah Informed will help at the David Eccles School of Business. Their vision is for you make informed decisions in 2017. the Institute to be the place where Utah comes together

Natalie Gochnour Taylor Randall Lane Beattie Director, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Dean, David Eccles School of Business President & CEO, Salt Lake Chamber

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute | 1 Contents

Global and National Context Top 10 sources of migrants to Utah...... 31 2016 Discoveries...... 4 Percent of population without health insurance in 2015. . . . 32 Words and phrases to know in 2017...... 5 Health care expenditures as a share of GDP: 2015...... 33 Duration of US economic expansions...... 6 Percent of population with income below poverty level, 2015. . .34 Odds of US recession in next 12 months...... 7 Jobs Consumer Confidence Index ...... 8 Employment change, Q1 2008 – Q1 2016...... 35 Partisan Conflict Index...... 9 Employers with 4,000 or more average annual jobs in 2015. . .36 Hollow Trees...... 10 Employment as a percent of 2007 peak...... 37 Effective federal funds rate...... 11 Utah employment by industry...... 38 Share of world manufacturing output ...... 12 Utah Headline and U-6 unemployment rates...... 39 Core inflation...... 13 Job index for Utah private and public sectors...... 40 Federal budget deficits and surpluses...... 14 Net interest overlays vs. federal debt...... 15 Education US International trade balance ...... 16 4-year graduation rates by school district, 2016...... 41 US economic competitiveness...... 17 Retention of new Utah teachers...... 42 Production and jobs in manufacturing sector...... 18 Percent of population 25 years and over with graduate or Nonfarm productivity...... 19 professional degree...... 43 News use across social media platforms...... 20 Educational attainment for persons 25 Years and over, 2015 . . .44 Average undergraduate tuition and fees...... 45 People Top five undergraduate degrees for Utah men and women. . .46 Utah population growth, 2015 - 2016...... 21 Top male and female dominated degrees in Utah...... 47 Utah population age 5 to 17...... 22 Depedency ratios in Utah and the United States ...... 23 Income and Debt Living arrangements of Utah adults in 2015...... 24 Share of households in the middle class ...... 48 Selected age groups as a percent of Utah’s total population. . . 25 Gini Index of Income Equality ...... 49 Total fertility rates for Utah and the United States...... 26 Utah real private average hourly earnings index...... 50 8-year olds identifi­ed with Autism Spectrum Disorder. . . . . 27 Utah components of Personal Income...... 51 Primary languages spoken at home in Utah...... 28 Consumer bankruptcy cases, Utah and US...... 52 Minorities’ share of Utah population...... 29 Real Salt Lake vs. Los Angeles Galaxy pay...... 53 Utah population pyramid ...... 30 Utah per capita debt by loan type ...... 54

Edited by Juliette Tennert 2 | Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Sales and Prices Fiscal Regional Price Parities, 2014...... 55 States with triple-triple rating...... 78 Average retail price of electricity to residential sector...... 56 State of Utah sales and use tax collections...... 79 Composition of Utah retail sales...... 57 State of Utah budget reserve accounts...... 80 Utah nexus for largest US e-retailers...... 58 Budget of the State of Utah...... 81 Millenial expenditure growth...... 59 International Trade Real Estate and Construction Utah merchandise exports...... 82 Growth in housing units and households in Utah ...... 60 Top ten Utah export purchasing countries: 2015...... 83 Construction jobs as a percent of all jobs ...... 61 Top ten Utah export industries: 2015 ...... 84 Real Change in FHFA Home Price Index, 1980 - 2015...... 62 The age of acceleration...... 85 Utah residential construction...... 63 Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints membership. . . . 86 Value of permit-authorized construction in Utah...... 64 Index of for-sale inventory...... 65 Economic Strength and Diversity Median existing home prices...... 66 County shares defense contracts and grants...... 87 Utah Defense Sector total economic impacts ...... 88 Travel and Tourism Hachman Index of GDP diversity...... 89 Direct Utah traveler spending...... 67 Delta Air Lines US and Canada routes...... 90 Utah tourism-generated jobs...... 68 Union Pacific Rail Network...... 91 International visitor Visa card...... 69 US and Utah GDP by industry...... 92 Utah skier days vs. total annual snowfall...... 70 Utah national park and place visitation...... 71 Shedding Light Leadership truisms...... 93 Resources Progress...... 94 Highest internet connection speeds in the US...... 72 Human adaptability and technological acceleration...... 95 States with most solar electric capacity installed in 2015 . . . .73 Informed decisions...... 96 States’ share of total US energy production ...... 74 Energy consumption per capita ...... 75 Salt Lake City temperature records...... 76 Share of Utah land area in drought conditions ...... 77

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute | 3 2016 discoveries

Gene-Editing Technique Used on Human Patient Another Planet in Our Solar System Found A lung cancer patient became the first human subject A group of astronomers found new evidence that of the CRISPR gene-editing technique, with the goal of there is a distant planet within our solar system. strengthening his cells against the cancer. Small Asteroid Orbiting Earth and the Sun Gravitational Waves Detected A new companion to our planet, a small asteroid 100 years after Albert Einstein unveiled his theory of which appears to be orbiting the earth as well, has been General Relativity, the first direct evidence of gravitational found orbiting the sun. waves was detected. Eyeless Cavefish Walks Up Cave Walls Casper the friendly octopus A blind cavefish has been found using its pelvis to An octopus found near Hawaii, nicknamed “Casper” scale cave walls, providing a modern look at evolutionary for its pale, translucent appearance, is a newly discovered steps. species. SpaceX Successfully Lands Rocket NASA Spacecraft Reaches Jupiter Private company SpaceX successfully landed its After five years, NASA’s Juno spacecraft finally reached Falcon 9 rocket with the help of a drone ship. Jupiter, and is now orbiting the planet. Greenland Shark Declared Oldest Living Vertebrate Dinosaurs Tail with Feathers Discovered Through radiocarbon dating, scientists estimate a A 99 million-year-old dinosaur tail was found in amber, female Greenland shark to be around 400 years old. with its bones, tissue, and feathers intact.

4 | Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Words and phrases to know in 2017

350 �����������������������������������������������������������������The number of persons in Utah at least 100 years old. The number of centenarians in Utah is projected to grow to 6,800 by 2065! Alt-right �����������������������������������������������������A self-proclaimed tribe that unifies against multiculturalism, immigration, feminism and, above all, political correctness. A.I. �����������������������������������������������������������������Artificial intelligence is all the rage. Prominent thinker Stephen Hawking reminds us that it will be, “either the best, or worst thing, ever to happen to humanity.” Beehive �������������������������������������������������������What used to be thought of as Utah’s state symbol and a home for bees is now the symbol of Utah’s changing age structure. Bregret ��������������������������������������������������������The regret felt by those who voted to leave the EU, and now wish they had not done so. Drain the Swamp �����������������������������������A call to action to fix dysfunction in Washington, D.C. Entrepreneurial federalism ���������������States competing with public money to lure business. Critics call it an arms race, picking winners, or corporate welfare. Supporters call it the new normal. Our Schools Now �����������������������������������A ballot initiative to invest $750 million into Utah’s education system. Post-truth ���������������������������������������������������A political culture that appeals to emotion instead of fact. Last year, Oxford Dictionaries selected “post-truth” international word of the year. Resilience ���������������������������������������������������The ability to fall down nine times and get up ten. Solopreneur ���������������������������������������������A person developing their own personal brand, a niche for themselves in their own marketplace. STEMpathy �����������������������������������������������STEM jobs are all the rage, but those with STEM skills who can relate to others and show empathy will thrive. TEOTWAWKI ���������������������������������������������The End Of The World As We know It The new Utah County ���������������������������Economic and political power shifts south. It’s not your grandfather’s county anymore. The new Point of the Mountain �������One chance to get it right! TrumpCare �������������������������������������������������The coming evolution of the U.S. health system.

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Global and National | 5 Current US economic expansion among Current US economic expansion among the the longest,longest, slowest on recordon record Duration of U.S. economic expansions Duration of US economic expansions

March 1933 50 months June 1938 80 months October 1945 37 months October 1949 45 months (6.9%) May 1954 39 months (4.0%) April 1958 24 months (5.6%) February 1961 106 months (4.9%) November 1970 36 months (5.1%)

Start Date March 1975 58 months (4.5%) July 1980 12 months (4.4%) November 1982 92 months (4.4%) March 1991 120 months (3.6%) November 2001 73 months (2.8%) June 2009 92 months as of Jan. 2017 (2.1%) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Months

Note: Average annual GDP growth in parentheses; data unavailable prior to 1949. Sources: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of National Bureau of Research and Bureau of Economic Analysis data

6 | Global and National Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 WorriesWorries about about a aUS US recession recession fell Worriesfell during aboutduring the the a lastUS last halfrecession half of 2016 of 2016 fell during the last half of 2016 Odds of US recessionOdds in next 12of months US recession in next 12 months Odds of US recession in next 12 months 25.0% 21.9% 21.3% 25.0% 20.7% 21.0% 19.8% 20.3% 20.2% 19.6% 21.9% 20.0% 21.3% 19.0% 20.7% 21.0% 18.5% 20.3% 20.2% 16.9% 19.8% 19.6% 16.8% 20.0% 19.0% 18.5% 15.0%16.9% 16.8%

15.0% 10.0%

10.0% 5.0%

5.0% 0.0%

0.0%

Source: Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey

Source: Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Global and National | 7 US consumerUS consumer con confidencedence reaches reaches a a 10-year10-year high high atat end end of 2016of 2016 US consumer con dence reaches a Consumer Confidence10-year Index Consumer high at Con end denceof 2016 Index Seasonally adjusted, 1985 = 100 Seasonally adjusted, 1985 = 100 Consumer Con dence Index 120.0 Seasonally adjusted, 1985 = 100

120.0 100.0

100.0 80.0

80.0 60.0

60.0 40.0

40.0 20.0

20.0 0.0 Jul-11 Jul-16 Jan-09 Jan-14 Jun-09 Apr-15 Apr-10 Oct-07 Oct-12 Jun-14 Feb-16 Feb-11 Sep-15 0.0 Sep-10 Dec-11 Mar-08 Mar-13 Dec-16 Dec-06 Nov-09 Nov-14 Aug-08 Aug-13 May-07 May-12 Jul-11 Jul-16 Jan-09 Jan-14 Jun-09 Apr-10 Apr-15 Oct-07 Oct-12 Jun-14 Feb-11 Feb-16 Sep-10 Sep-15 Dec-11 Mar-08 Mar-13 Dec-06 Dec-16 Nov-09 Nov-14 Aug-08 Aug-13 Source:May-07 The Conference Board May-12

Source: The Conference Board

8 | Global and National Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Will partisanWill partisan conflict increase con uncertaintyict increase in 2017? uncertainty in 2017? Will partisan con ict increase Partisan Conflict Index uncertaintyPartisan in Con 2017?ict Index 1990 average = 100 1990 average = 100 300.0 Partisan Con ict Index 1990 average = 100

300.0 250.0

250.0 200.0

200.0 150.0

150.0 100.0

100.0 50.0

50.0 0.0 Jul-11 Jul-16 Jan-09 Jun-09 Jan-14 Apr-10 Apr-15 Oct-07 Oct-12 Jun-14 Feb-11 Feb-16 Sep-10 Sep-15 Mar-08 Dec-06 Mar-13 Dec-11 Nov-09 Aug-08 Aug-13 Nov-14 May-07 0.0 May-12 Note: The Partisan Con ict Index measures the frequency of articles in major U.S. newspapers reporting political disagreement. Jul-11 Jul-16 Jan-09 Jun-09 Jan-14 Apr-10 Apr-15 Oct-07 Oct-12 Jun-14 Feb-11 Feb-16 Sep-10 Sep-15 Mar-08 Dec-06 Mar-13 Dec-11 Nov-09 Aug-08 Aug-13 Nov-14 May-07 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia May-12 Note: The Partisan Con ict Index measures the frequency of articles in major U.S. newspapers reporting political disagreement. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Global and National | 9 What do hollow trees have to do with the 2016 election?

“You don’t know a tree is hollow until you push hard against it and it falls. The establishments of both parties did not know, a year ago, that they were hollow trees. They thought themselves strong because they always had been, and people think what has been true will continue. Then suddenly the tree is pushed and falls. To me that is the symbol, the image of 2016: the hollowed trees and how easily they fell.”

– Peggy Noonan

Source: Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal, November 25, 2016

10 | Global and National Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Fed fundsFed ratefunds rateback back to to 2008 2008 level level by byend endof 2018? of 2018? Fed funds rate back to 2008 level by end of 2018?

Effective federal funds rate E ective Federal Funds Rate Actual and projected E ective FederalActual and Funds Projected Rate 6.0% Actual and Projected Actual 6.0% Projected 5.0% Actual Projected 5.0% 4.0%

4.0% 3.0%

3.0% 2.0%

2.0% 1.0%

1.0% 0.0%

0.0% Jun-11 Jun-06 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-18 Jun-07 Jun-12 Jun-14 Jun-17 Dec-11 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-18 Dec-07 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-17 Jun-11 Jun-06 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-18 Jun-07 Jun-12 Jun-14 Jun-17 Dec-11 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-18 Dec-07 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-17 Source: Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey

Source: Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Global and National | 11 ChinaChina now now produces produces a quarter a of quarter the world’s of Chinathe nowworld’s producesmanufacturing manufacturing a outputquarter output of the world’s manufacturing output Share of world manufacturingShare output of world manufacturing output 2000 vs. 2016 Share of world manufacturing2000 vs. 2016 output 2000 vs. 2016 30.0% 2000 30.0% 2000 2016 25.0% 25.0% 23.5% 2016 25.0% 25.0% 23.5% 20.0% 20.0% 17.5% 17.5% 15.0% 15.0% 12.5% 12.5% 9.1% 8.8% 10.0% 8.2% 9.1% 8.8% 10.0% 8.2% 6.4% 6.4% 4.4% 5.0% 3.4% 3.3% 2.7% 2.9% 3.2% 2.4% 4.4% 2.5% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 5.0% 3.4%1.5% 3.3% 1.9% 1.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.2% 2.4% 2.5% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 1.5% 1.9% 1.6% 1.8% 0.0%

Source: Richard Barkham, CBRE Source: Richard Barkham, CBRE

12 | Global and National Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 PrecariouslyPrecariously low low inflation in ation rates rates Precariously low in ation rates

Core Inflation Core In ation Q3 2016 Core In Q3ation 2016 2.5% Q3 2016 Core In ation 2.5% 2.2% Core InTargetation 2.2% 2.0% Target 1.8% 2.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.2%

1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 0.6%

0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1%

0.0% 0.1% Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK U.S. 0.0% Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK U.S. Source: Richard Barkham, CBRE

Source: Richard Barkham, CBRE

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Global and National | 13 BudgetBudget deficit expected de citsto grow expected over the next to decade grow over the next decade

Federal budget deficitsFederal and surpluses budget de cits (-) and surpluses Percent of Gross Domestic Product Percent of Gross Domestic Product 4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

-2.0%

-4.0%

-6.0%

-8.0%

-10.0% Actual Projected -12.0% 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2003 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2015 2016 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 2025 2026 1997 2002 2004 2007 2012 2014 2017 2022 2024

Source: Congressional Budget O ce August 2016 Budget and Economic Outlook

Source: Congressional Budget Office, August 2016 Budget and Economic Outlook

14 | Global and National Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Higher Interest rates will boost the share of resources required to service the federal debt

Net interest overlays vs. federal debt 12-Month moving sum, total debt held by the public 4.0%- -80%

3.5%- -70%

3.0%- -60%

2.5%- -50%

2.0%- -40%

1.5%- -30%

1.0%- -20%

0.5%- -10%

0.0%- -0% I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Net interest as a share of GDP: Sept @ 1.3% (Left Axis) Public debt as a share of GDP: Sept @75.7% (RIght Axis)

Source: U.S. Departments of the Treasury, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Global and National | 15 WhatWhat does thedoes future the hold future for US trade hold balance? for What doesUS the trade future balance? hold for US trade balance? US International trade balanceUS international trade balance Billions, seasonally adjusted US internationalBillions, seasonally trade balanceadjusted $0.0 Billions, seasonally adjusted

$0.0($10.0)

($10.0)($20.0)

($20.0)($30.0)

($30.0)($40.0)

($40.0)($50.0)

($50.0)($60.0)

($60.0)($70.0)

($70.0)($80.0)

($80.0) Jul-2010 Jul-2015 Jan-2008 Jan-2013 Oct-2006 Oct-2011 Oct-2016 Jun-2008 Jun-2013 Apr-2009 Apr-2014 Feb-2010 Feb-2015 Sep-2009 Dec-2010 Dec-2015 Sep-2014 Mar-2007 Mar-2012 Nov-2008 Nov-2013 May-2011 May-2016 Aug-2007 Aug-2012 Jul-2010 Jul-2015 Jan-2008 Jan-2013 Oct-2006 Oct-2011 Oct-2016 Jun-2008 Jun-2013 Apr-2009 Apr-2014 Feb-2010 Feb-2015 Sep-2009 Dec-2010 Dec-2015 Sep-2014 Mar-2007 Mar-2012 Nov-2008 Nov-2013 May-2011 May-2016 Aug-2007 Aug-2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Foreign Trade Programs and Products

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Foreign Trade Programs and Products

16 | Global and National Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 US economic competitiveness

= Activities largely controlled by public sector = Activities largely controlled by private sector

(Weakness but improving) (Strength and Improving) 60% Entrepreneurship Capital 40% Universities Markets Firm Management Innovation Clusters 20% Property Rights Hiring and Firing Communications Infrastructure 0%

-20% Macro Policy Legal Framework Skilled Labor -40% Health Regulation Care

Logistics Infrastructure -60% K-12 Education System Tax Political -80% System U.S. Trajectory Compared to Other Advanced Economies Other to Advanced Compared Trajectory U.S. Code

(Weakness and Deteriorating) (Strength but Deteriorating) -100% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Current U.S. Position Compared to Other Advanced Economies

Source: Harvard Business School Survey on U.S. Competitiveness and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Global and National | 17 Doing more with less

Production & jobs in manufacturing sector Index, Jan 1979 = 100 240- -240

200- -200

160- -160

120- -120

80- -80

40- -40

0- -0 I I I I I I I I 79 84 89 94 99 04 09 14 Manufacturing production: November @ 202.6 Manufacturing employment: November @ 63.2

Source: U.S. Departments of Commerce & Labor and Wells Fargo Securities

18 | Global and National Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Sluggish productivity growth limits economic potential

Nonfarm productivity Two-year moving average, year-over-year percent change 5%- -5%

4%- -4%

3%- -3%

2%- -2%

1%- -1%

0%- -0%

-1%- - -1% 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 86 00 04 08 12 16

nLabor productivity: Q3 @ 0.4%

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Global and National | 19 SocialSix media in 10 Americans increasingly got news used from social for news; media in one 2016 in six Social mediaAmericans increasingly got news used fromfor news; site in one 2016 in six News use acrossAmericans socialNews media platformsuse got across news social from media site in platforms 2016 News use across social media platforms How often US adults get news on a Portion of US adults who get news on social networking site, 2016 popular social networking sites How often US adults get news on a Portion of US adults who get news on 50% social networking site, 2016 popular social networking sites2013 2016 44% 45% 50% 40% 2013 2016 44% Often 45% 18.0% 35% 40% 30% Often 30% 18.0% 35% Never Sometimes 25%30% 38.0% 30% 26.0% 20% Never Sometimes 25% 38.0% 15% 26.0% 10% 10% 20% 8% 9% Hardly Ever 10% 15% 18.0% 5% 10% 10% 9% 10% 8% Hardly Ever 0% 18.0% 5% Facebook YouTube Twitter 0% Facebook YouTube Twitter

Source: Pew Research Center

Source: Pew Research Center

20 | Global and National Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Over 30 pUtaherce Countynt of leadsUta hin’ spopulation popula growthtion growth in Over 30 percent oUf tUatha cho’su pnotpuy inla 201tion6 growth in Utah county in 2016 Utah population growth,U t2015-2016ah population growth, 2015 - 2016

Utah population growth, 2015 - n201et declin6e CACHE 0 - 2,500 2,052 RICHnet decline BOX ELDER CACHE 8 0 - 2,500 2,501 - 5,000 1,067 2,052 RICH BOX ELDER 8 WEBER 2,501 - 5,05,00001 - 10,000 1,067 2,935 5,001 - 10>,00 10,000 WEBERDAVIS MORGAN 2,935 6,555 442 DAGGETT MORGAN SUM>M 1I0T,000 DAVIS -10 442 772 6,555 SALT SLUAMKEMIT DAGGETT 14,227372 -10 TOOELE SALT LAKE 2,023 14,223 WASATCH TOOELE DUCHESNE 1,382 2,023 -213 WASUATATCHH DUCHESNE UINTAH 1,73,86268 -213 -815 UTAH UINTAH 17,668 -815 JUAB 470 CARBON JUAB 24 470 CARBON 24 SANPETE MILLARD 401 SANPETE 187 EMERY GRAND MILLARD 401 -85 176 187 SEVIER EMERY GRAND 279 -85 176 SEVIER BEAVER 279 PIUTE WAYNE 72 -27 BEAVER -6 PIUTE WAYNE 72 -27 -6 IRON GARFIELD 1,336 26 IRON GARFIELD SAN JUAN 1,336 26 400 SAN JUAN WASHINGTON KANE 400 5,757 310 WASHINGTON KANE 5,757 310 Note: 57,401 growth statewide. NNote:ote: Utah's 57S,o401u populationrc ger:o Uwttahh s grewPtaotpeu w57,401laidtieo.n people Comm toitt 3,054,806ee Utahns in 2016. Source: Utah Population Committee

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute People | 21 Growth Growthin Uta inh Utah’s’s sch school-ageool-age population populat expectedion exp ected Growth in Utahto’s ssclotohw oslow olv- eroverag teh the pe o nnextpuex decadelta dteiocna deexpected Utah population aget o5 to s 17lowUt aohv erpo tphuela ntieoxnt age dec 5a tdeo 17 Utah population age 5 to 17 1,000,000 3.5%0.035 900,000 1,000,000 0.035 3.0%0.03 800,000 900,000 0.03 2.5%0.025 700,000 800,000 2.0% 600,000 0.025 0.02 700,000 500,000 1.5%0.015 600,000 0.02 400,000 500,000 0.015 1.0%0.01 300,000 400,000 0.01 0.5%0.005 200,000 300,000 100,000 0.005 0.0%0 200,000 0 -0.5%-0.005 100,000 0

0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 -02060 .0052065 School age population (5-17) Annual growth 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 Note: Data prior tSoc 2016hoo alr ea egsetim poateps; udalatat iforn 2016 (5- an17)d beyond areA pnnrojeuactioln gs.rowth Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Note: Data prior to 2016 are estimates; data for 2016 and beyond are projections. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

22 | People Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 AgingAging bab ybaby bo boomersomers driving driving projected proj ected Aging babdye bpoedependencyndomeenrcsy d rratioriavtingio increase in pcrroejaesceted dependency ratio increase Depedency ratiosDep ine Utahnd eandnc they RUnitedatio Statess in Utah and the United States Dependency Ratios in Utah and the United States 100 Youth Retirees 89.9 100 90 Youth Retirees 82.3 81.0 79.0 80.0 79.0 8980.9 13 .9 76.4 90 72.5 73.1 72.9 82.3 70.6 70.571.9 81.0 15 .8 68.6 68.2 7079.0 80.0 13 .5 79.0

13 .9 65.1 80 17 .7 64.0 76.4 61.6 61.6 73.1 72.9 7058.6.9 70.571.9 72.5 37 .6 15 .8

60 68.2 34 .0

68.6 14 .4 13 .5 15 .2 70 20 .1

65.1 28 .0 24 .9 17 .7 64.0 18 .6 61.6 61.6 41 .5 37 .5 35 .5 50 58.9 38 .2 20 .1 20 .3 27 .7 37 .6

60 34 .0 14 .4 20 .7 15 .2 20 .1 28 .0 24 .9 18 .6 41 .5 37 .5 40 35 .5 50 38 .2 20 .1 20 .3 27 .7 76 .0 20 .7 66 .5 30 66 .4 40 61 .3 54 .3 53 .0 76 .0 50 .5 46 .5 45 .6 44 .6 44 .5

20 43 .4 66 .5 66 .4 41 .5 30 41 .3 38 .2 61 .3 36 .5 36 .3 35 .6 34 .8 34 .7 54 .3 53 .0 10 50 .5 46 .5 45 .6 44 .6 44 .5

20 43 .4 41 .5 41 .3 38 .2 36 .5 36 .3 35 .6 34 .8 0 34 .7

10 ...... h h h h h h h h h h S S S S S S S S S S ...... a a a a a a a a a a t t t t t t t t t t U U U U U U U U U U

0 U U U U U U U U U U ...... h h h h h h h h h h S S S S S S S S S S ...... a a a a a a a a a a

t 197t 0 198t 0 1990t 2000t 2010t 2020t 2030t 2040t 2050t 2060 U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U U Notes: Dependency ratios are computed as the number of nonworking age persons per 100 working age (18 -64 year ol197d) pe0rsons198 in th0e pop199ulatio0n. You200th ar0e less 201than 180 yea202rs old0 and r203etirem0ent a204ge is0 65 ye205ars an0d old206er. 20200 – 2060 are projections. Notes: Dependency ratios are computed as the number of nonworking age persons per 100 working age (18 -64 year old) persSoonusr icne t:h Kee pmopC.u lGaatirodnn. eYro Puotlhic ayr Ien lsetitssu tthane ana 18ly ysiesa orsf Uol.Sd. anCedn sreutis rBeumreanut adgaeta i san 65d yKeeamrsC. an Gda ordldneerr. P 2020olicy –In2060stitu te are projections. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute People | 23 Nearly tArehr eetoo omanyf ev 18er toy 34te yearn U toldsah young Nearly threeadu olivingfl tsev li ewithvrey theirwteinth parents?U ptahre ynotsu ng adults live with parents Living arrangementsLiv ofi nUtahg a adultsrran ing 2015ements of Utah adults in 2015 Living arrangements of Utah adults in 2015 100.0% 3.3% 1.8% 13.8% 90.0% 11.2% 12.9% 100.0% 3.3% 1.8% 13.8% 5.0% 1.0% 11.2% 11.2% 12.9% 90.0%80.0% 3.9% 5.0% 1.0% 11.2% Other Nonrelatives 80.0%70.0% 3.9% Other Nonrelatives 70.0%60.0% 28.6% Other Relatives 61.8% 60.0%50.0% 28.6% Other Relatives Child of Householder 6.0% 68.0% 61.8% 50.0%40.0% Child of Householder 6.0% Unmarried Partner 40.0%30.0% 68.0% Unmarried Partner 30.0%20.0% 36.2% Married Couple

36.2% 22.2% Married Couple 20.0%10.0% Lives alone 8.6% 4.2% 22.2% 10.0% 0.0% Lives alone 18 to 34 8.6%35 to 64 65+ 0.0% 4.2% 18 to 34 35 to 64 65+ Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

24 | People Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Growing old togethTheer - grayingUtah ’ofs 35Utah+ share increasing while 35 and under share declining Growing old together - Utah’s 35+ share increasing SelectedS ageele groupscwtehild asage a35 epercent g aroun ofdp Utah’sus nasd totalae pr espopulationrhcaenret odfe Uclinitah’ngs total population

Sele100ct.0%ed age groups as a percent of Utah’s total population 6.9% 8.1% 8.5% 9.0% 11.8% 14.6% 16.2% 90.0% 19.0% 20.8% 100.0% 6.9% 24.8% 80.0% 8.1% 27.88%.5% 9.0% 11.8% 30.4% 14.6% 16.2% 90.0% 31.8% 19.0% 20.8% 34.1% 70.0% 34.8% 24.8% 35.5% 80.0% 27.8% 34.9% 34.2% 60.0% 30.4% 31.8% 34.1% 70.0% 31.3% 50.0% 27.6% 34.8% 35.5% 28.9% 27.6% 34.9% 34.2% 60.0% 24.5% 40.0% 23.8% 31.3% 22.5% 50.0% 27.6% 21.1% 21.1% 30.0% 28.9% 27.6% 40.0% 24.5% 23.8% 22.5% 20.0% 37.0% 36.5% 21.1% 21.1% 32.2% 31.5% 30.0% 29.6% 26.8% 25.8% 10.0% 25.0% 24.0% 20.0% 37.0% 36.5% 0.0% 32.2% 31.5% 29.6% 26.8% 25.8% 25.0% 10.0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 205024.0% 2060 0.0% Children (0-17) Young Adults (18-34) Adults (35-64) Retirees (65+) 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

SCouhricledsr: eUn.S. (C0-17)ensus BureaYuo Duecnegnn Aiadl Cuelntssu s( 18and- 34)Kem C. GaArdnuerl tPsol (i3cy5 In-64)stitute Retirees (65+)

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute People | 25 WUtah'sill U fertilitytah’s ratefer tisili att ya historicrema ilown Willa Ubtoavhe’s r feeprtlailictemey remnta lienv el? Total fertilityT ratesota forl f Utahearbti oandlivty ethe rra eUnitedtpesla f Statesocemer Utanh ta lnedv ethl?e United States Total fertility rates for Utah and the United States 5.0 Utah U.S. 5.0 4.5 Utah Replacement Level U.S. 4.5 4.0 Replacement Level 4.0 3.5

3.5 3.0

3.0 2.5

2.5 2.0

2.0 1.5

1.5 1.0

1.0 0.5

0.5 0.0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0.0 Note: The replacement level is the total fertility rate at which the current population is replaced. 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: National Center for Health Statistics Note: The replacement level is the total fertility rate at which the current population is replaced. Source: National Center for Health Statistics

26 | People Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Utah has more autism diagnoses Utah has more autism diagnoses than the national average Utah haths amno trhee a nuatitsimon daila agvneorasesge than the national average 8-year olds8 identified-year o lwithds Autismiden Spectrumti ed wDisorderith Autism Spectrum Disorder 1 in 588- iny Utah,ear 1 oin l68d ins Unitediden Statesti 1 eind 58 w ini tUtha Ah, ut1 inis 68m in S Upenitecdtrum States Disorder 1 in 58 in Utah, 1 in 68 in United States

Notes: Data are from the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network. The national average is the average of the 11 states participating in ADDM Network in 2012. Notes: DSaotau racre :f r Coemn ttehres Afourti Dsimse anased CDoenvterloolpm 2016en tCaol mmDisaubnilititiye Rs eMponrti toonr iAngu ti(AsmDDM) Network. The national average is the average of the 11 states participating in ADDM Network in 2012. Source: Centers for Disease Control 2016 Community Report on Autism

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute People | 27 Multilingual Utah Multilingual Utah Primary languages spoken at home in Utah Primary languages spoken at home in Utah Minorities’ share of Utah population up almost threefold since 1980

Minorities’ share of Utah population

1990 2000 3.7% 3.9% 91.2% 87.3% 4.9% 9.0%

6.7% 2010 7.3% 2015

80.3% 79.0%

13.0% 13.7%

Hispanic or Latino Other Minority (Not Hispanic or Latino) White, Not Hispanic or Latino Note: Utahns speak 141 primary languages at home. ▪ ▪ ▫ Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division and U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census

28 | People Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 MinoriMinorities'ties’ sha sharere of ofU Utahtah ppopulationopulati o n up almmoreost thanthreef doublesold s inin 25ce years 1980

Minorities’ share of Utah Mpopulationinorities’ share of Utah population Minorities’ share of Utah population up almost threefold since 1980 1990 2000 Minorities’ share of Utah popu3l.a7%tion 3.9% 91.2% 87.3% 4.9% 9.0% 1990 2000 3.7% 3.9% 91.2% 87.3% 4.9% 9.0%

6.7% 2010 7.3% 2015

80.3% 79.0%

13.0% 13.7% 6.7% 2010 7.3% 2015

80.3% 79.0% Hispanic or Latino Other Minority (Not Hispanic or Latino) White, Not Hispanic or Latino ▪13.0% ▪ 13.7% ▫ Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division and U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census

▪ Hispanic or Latino ▪ Other Minority (Not Hispanic or Latino) ▫ White, Not Hispanic or Latino Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division and U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute People | 29 The beehive—Utah’sThe beeh changingive age structure

Utah population pyramid TheUtah beeh populivea tion pyramid 1960, 2015 and 2065 1960, 2015, and 2065

MaleUtah - 2065 popul Projectionation pyramid Female - 2065 Projection 100+ Male - 2015 Female - 2015 95 Male - 19601960, 2015, and 2065 Female - 1960 90 85 Male - 2065 Projection Female - 2065 Projection 100+ 80 Male - 2015 Female - 2015 95 75 Male - 1960 Female - 1960 90 70 85 80 65 75 60 70 55 65 50 60 45 55 40 50 35 45 30 40 25 35 30 20 25 15 20 10 15 5 10 0 5 0 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 Note: The top age group for 1960 is 85+.

Note: ThSeo utoprce asge: U.S.group Census for 19 6Bu0 isreau, 85+. Utah Population Committee, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Utah Population Committee, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

30 | People Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Most of Utah’s migrants come from the West from the West

Top 10 sources of migrationT toop Utahf 1r0om sou therces W ofest migrants to Utah

WATop 10 sources of migrants to Utah 4,271

WA OR 4,271 ID 2,988 7,138 WY OR ID 2,452 2,988 7,138 NV WY 5,269 2,452 CO CA 4,808 VA 15NV,087 2,321 5,269 CO CA VA AZ 4,808 15,087 2,321 7,127

AZ 7,127 TX 4,859

TX 4,859

Note: Migrants from U.S. only. All estimates are subject to sampling error. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey (ACS) Note: Migrants from U.S. only. All estimates are subject to sampling error. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey (ACS)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute People | 31 Nine states have a higher uninsured rate Nine statesthan ha vUtah;e a highethirty haver u ninlowers uratered rate than Nine states haUveta ah; highe thirtyr uhninaves ulorweder r aratete than Percent of populationU withouttah; thealthhirt insurancey have in l2015ower rate U.S. = 9.4%

WA 6.6% ME WA MT ND VT 8.4% 6.6% 11.6% 7.8% 3.8% MN VT ME OR MT ND NH ID 4.5% 3.8% 8.4% 7.0% 11.6% 7.8% 6.3% 11.0% MSDN WI OR MI NY MA ID 4.5% NH 7.0% WY 10.2% 5.7% 7.1% 2.8% 11.0% 6.1% 6.3% 11.5%SD WI NY RI MI MA CT 10.2% 5.7%IA 7.1% PA 5.7% WY NE 6.1% 2.8% 6.0% 11.5% 5.0% OH 6.4% RI NV 8.2% CT NJ UT IA IL IN PA 5.7% 12.3% NE 6.5% 6.0% 8.7% 5.0% 9.6% 6.4% WV NVCA 10.5% CO8.2% 7.1%OH NJ MD 12.83.%6% UT 8.1% KS IL MOIN 6.5% 6.0% VA 6.6% KY 8.7% CA 10.5% CO 9.1% 7.1%9.8%9.6% WV M9D.1% 6.0% 8.6% 8.1% KS MO 6.0% VA 6.6N%C 9.1% KY TN 9.1% 9.8%OK 11.2% AZ 6.0% 10.3% NM 13.9% AR NC SC 10.8% TN 10.9% OK 9.5% 11.2% 10.9% AZ 10.3% NM 13.9% AR MS AL SC GA 10.8% 10.9% 9.5% 12.7% 10.11%0.9%13.9% TX AL GA MS LA AK 17.1% 10.1% 13.9% 12.7%11.9% 14.9% TX AK LA FL 17.1% 13.3% 14.9% HI 11.9% FL 4.0% 13.3% HI Rate lower than Utah* 4.0% Rate loweRra thea non Ut stataht*istically di erent than Utah Rate not Rstaatteis hitigcahlleyr tdhi aner Uetnath t*han Utah *Di erence is statistically di erent from zero with 90 percReant eco hingdhenecre t. han Utah* Sources: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2015 1-year estimates *Di erence is statistically di erent from zero with 90 percent condence. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2015 1-year estimates

32 | People Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 US health care costs impact global competitiveness US health cUSar healthe co stscare icostsmp impactact gl globaloba competitivenessl competitiveness

Health care expenditures as a share of GDP: 2015 Health careHe expendituresalth care as e ax sharepen ofdi GDP:tu 2015res as a share of GDP: 2015 Select OECD Countries Select OECD Countries Select OECD Countries United States 16.9 16.9 Switzerland 11.5 SwitzerlJapanand 11.5 11.2 Germany 11.2 11.1 GerSwedenmany 11.1 11.1 France 11.1 11.0 NetherlandsFrance 11.0 10.8 Belgium 10.810.4 BelgAustriaium 10.4 10.4 Canada 10.4 10.1 CaNorwaynada 10.1 9.9 United Kingdom 9.9 9.8 United KingFinlanddom 9.8 9.6 New Zealand 9.6 9.4 New ZeaIrelandland 9.4 9.4 Australia 9.4 9.3 AustraItalylia 9.3 9.1 Spain 9.1 9.0 SpKoreaain 7.2 9.0 Mexico 5.87 .2 Mexico 0 2 4 5.86 8 10 12 14 16 18 0 5 Percent10 of GDP 15 20 Percent of GDP Source: Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, OECD.stat Source: Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, OECD.stat

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute People | 33 Thirty-fourThirty-four states stateshave have a hi ag higherher p povertyoverty rate than Utah;rate than 3 Utah;have 3 lhaveower lower rate

PercentThir ofty population-four sta withtes income ha belowve a poverty higher level, p 2015overty rate than U.S. = 14.7% Utah; 3 have lower rate

WA 12.2% ME MT ND VT 13.4% 14.6% 11.0% 10.2% OR MN ID 10.2% NH WA 15.4% 8.2% 15.1% SD WI 12.2% MI NY MA 13.7% 12.1% ME MT NWDY 15.8% VT 15.4% 11.5% 13.4% 14.6% 111.0%1.1% 10.2% RI MN IA PA CT OR NE 13.9% ID 10.2% 12.2% 13.2%NH 10.5% 15.4% NV 12.6% OH 8.2% 15.1% SD WI 14.7% UT MI IL IN 1N4.8%Y MA NJ 13.7% 12.1% CA WY 11.3% CO 15.8% 13.6% 14.5%15.4% WV 11.5% M10.8%D 15.3% 11.1% 11.5% KS MO 17.9% VARI 9.7% IA PAKY C1T1.2% NE 13.0% 14.8% 13.9% 12.2% 13.2%18.5% 10.5% NV 12.6% OH NC UT IN TN 14.7% OKIL 14.8% N1J 6.4% 11.3% ACZO 14.5% 16.7% 10.8% CA NM 16.1%13.6% AR WV MD SC 15.3% 117.4%1.5% KS MO 17.9% VA 9.7%16.6% 20.4% 19.1%KY 13.0% 14.8% 1A1.2%L GA 18.5% MS 22.0% 18.5%NC 17.0% TN TX 16.4% OK 16.7%LA AKAZ 1A5.9%R SC NM 16.1% 19.6% 10.3%17.4% 19.1% 16.6% 20.4% FL AL GA MS 15.7% HI 22.0% 18.5% 17.0% 10.6% TX LA AK 15.9% Rate lower than Utah* 10.3% 19.6% Rate not statiFL stically di erent than Utah 15.7% HI Rate higher than Utah* 10.6% *Di erence is statistically di erent from zero with 9R0 atpeerc elontw coern dencthane U. tah* Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community SurveyRate no, 20t1 5s tati1-yesart iecstiallmya tdies erent than Utah Rate higher than Utah*

*Di erence is statistically di erent from zero with 90 percent condence. Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2015 1-year estimates

34 | People Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Wasatch Front and Wasatch Back lead post recession job recovery

Employment change, Q1 2008 – Q1 2016

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Jobs | 35 Utah’s Largest Employers

Employers with 4,000 or more average annual jobs in 2015

Company Industry Jobs Intermountain Healthcare Health Care 20,000 + State of Utah State Government 20,000 + University of Utah (Including Hospital) Higher Education 20,000 + Brigham Young University Higher Education 15,000-19,999 Wal-Mart Associates Warehouse Clubs/Supercenters 15,000-19,999 Hill Air Force Base Federal Government 10,000-14,999 Davis County School District Public Education 7,000-9,999 Granite School District Public Education 7,000-9,999 Utah State University Higher Education 7,000-9,999 Smith’s Food and Drug Centers Grocery Stores 7,000-9999 Alpine School District Public Education 7,000-9,999 U.S. Department of Treasury Federal Government 5,000-6,999 Jordan School District Public Education 5,000-6,999 Salt Lake County Local Government 5,000-6,999 Utah Valley University Higher Education 5,000-6,999 U.S. Postal Service Federal Government 4,000-4,999 Zions Bank Mangement Services Banking 4,000-4,999 The Canyons School District Public Education 4,000-4,999 The Home Depot Home Centers 4,000-4,999

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

36 | Jobs Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Employment has surpassed 2007 peak in all but three sectors

Employment as a percent of 2007 peak November, 2016

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Jobs | 37 Financial activities a particularly bright spot in Utah

Utah employment by industry

Improving Expanding Annualized rate of change: Aug 16 – Nov 16 16 – Nov of change: Aug rate Annualized Contracting Slowing

38 | Jobs Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Has unHasem unemploymentployment bbottomedottom eoutd inou Utah?t in Utah? Has unemployment bottomed out in Utah? Utah Headline and U-6 unemployment rates U-6 rate includes marginallyUtah attached Hea anddli part-timene an ford economicU-6 un reasonsemployment rates UtUa-6h r aHteea incdluldiense m arngidna Ully- a6tt acunheedm andpl poayrtm-timeen fto r eactoensomic reasons 16.0% U-6 rate includes" mHeaargdilninaell"y r attteached and part-time for economic reasons 16.0% U-6 rate 14.0% "Headline" rate U-6 rate 14.0% 12.0%

12.0% 10.0%

10.0% 8.0%

8.0% 6.0%

6.0% 4.0%

4.0% 2.0%

2.0% 0.0%

0.0%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Jobs | 39 PlatePlateauau in pubin publiclic sectorsecto jobr jo growth?b growth? Plateau in public sector job growth? Job index for UtahJo publicb in andde privatex for sectors Utah private and public sectors Seasonally adjusted, 100 = level at 2009 trough Job index foSera Usotnaalhly apdrjuivstaedt,e 100 an =d le pvelu ablt 2009ic s etrcoutorsgh 130.0 PrSeivaasotenally adjusted, 100 = level at 2009 trough Federal Government 130.0 125.0Private State & Local Government 125.0 120.0Federal Government State & Local Government Federal government 120.0 115.0 recession response and Decennial Census Federal government 115.0 110.0 recession response and Decennial Census 110.0 105.0

105.0 100.0

100.0 95.0

95.0 90.0

90.0

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics

40 | Jobs Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 UtahUtah school Utahschool school districts’ districts’ districts' graduation graduation graduation rates rates range rates rangerange from fromfrom 68 68 percent68 percent percent toto 98to 98 percent 98 percent percent

4-year graduation4-year4-year rates graduation graduation by school district, rates rates 2016 by by school school district, district, 2016 2016 Logan 84% Logan 84% Rich Cache Rich Ogden 68% Box Elder Cach9e0- Ogden 68% Box Elder 94% 90- Weber 83% 87% 941%00% Weber 83% 100% 87% Morgan 92% Morgan 92% N. Summit 95 – 100% Davis N. Summit 95 – 100% Granite 73% Davis Granite 73% 94% S. Summit Daggett 94% S. Summit Daggett Jordan 87% 91% 80-100% Jordan 87% 91% 80-100% Tooele Tooele 91% Alpine Wasatch Duchesne 91% Alpine Wasatch Duchesne 91% 89% 84% 91% 89% 84% Uintah Nebo Uintah Nebo 79% Park City 91% 90% 79% Park City 91% 90% Tintic Salt Lake 76% Tintic N. Salt Lake 76% 80-89% N. Carbon 80-89% Juab Sanpete Carbon Murray 79% Juab Sanpete 97% Murray 79% 97% 76% 97% 97% 76% Canyons 85% Canyons 85% S. SaSn.p Seatnepete Millard 89% ProvoProvo 71% 71% Millard 89% Emery Grand 93% 93% Emery Grand 90%90% 86%86% SevieSrevier 85%85% Beaver Beaver PiutePiute Wayne 83% Wayne 83% 80-898%0-89% 90%90% data shown in box labels Iron data shown in box labels Iron Gar Gealdr eld 82% 82% 88%88% <70<%70% San JSuaann Juan 85%85% 70-7709%-79% Washington Washington KaneKane 80-8809%-89% 88% 88% 92% 92% 90-19000-1%00%

Notes:Notes: Statewide Statewide rate ratewas was85% 85% in 2016. in 2016. Percentages Percentages for small for small groups groups of less of lessthan than 40 students 40 students are areobscured obscured by by showingshowing the range the range in which in which the percentagethe percentage falls. falls. Source:Source: Utah Utah State State O ce O ofce Education of Education

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Education | 41 PublicPublic schools schools lose lose over ov erone-third one-thi of rd of newnew teachers teachers after after four four years years

Retention of Pnewublic Utah teachersschoolsRete nlosetion o ofver n eonew U-tthiah rtdeache of rs 2010-2011 Cohort new teachers af2t0er10 -f2our011 C ohoyearsrt 100.0% Retention of new Utah teachers 90.0% 2010-2011 Cohort 100.0% 80.0%

90.0% 70.0%

80.0% 60.0%

70.0% 50.0%

60.0% 40.0% 84.5% 73.8% 64.4% 50.0% 30.0% 58.4% 40.0% 84.5% 20.0% 73.8% 64.4% 30.0% 10.0% 58.4% 20.0% 0.0% 10.0% 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015

0.0% Source201: Ut1a-2012h State Board of Educ201ation2-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015

Source: Utah State Board of Education

42 | Education Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 More than one in ten Utahns More thanhas one ina ten gr Utahnsadua thase de a graduategree degree More than one in ten Utahns Percent of phasopul aa tiongrad 25u ayteae rdes agndree over with graduate or Percent of population 25 years and over with a graduate or professional degree professional degree Percent of population 25 years and over with graduate or 14.0% United States Utah professional degree 14.0% 12.0%United States 11.6% 10.7% Utah 10.4% 11.6% 12.0% 10.0% 9.4% 8.9% 10.7% 8.3% 10.4% 10.0% 9.4% 8.0% 7.2% 6.8% 8.9% 8.3%

8.0% 6.0%7.2% 6.8%

6.0% 4.0%

4.0% 2.0%

2.0% 0.0% 1990 2000 2010 2015 0.0% Source: U.S.1990 Census Bureau American 2000Community Survey and Dec2010ennial Census 2015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey and Decennial Census

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Education | 43 Utah educational attainment ranks 14th among states

Educational attainment for persons 25 years and over, 2015 Bachelor’s degrees or higher, U.S. = 30.6%

44 | Education Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Utah tuition and fees rank 4th lowest among states

Average undergraduate tuition and fees U.S. = $8,543

) )

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Education | 45 Despite some overlap, popular majors di er Despitesign someicantly overlap, b ypopular gender majors differ significantly by gender Top ve undergraduate degrees for Utah men and women Top fiveD espiundergraduatete some degrees ov forerla Utahp , menpopular and women majors di er Bachelor’s degrees completedsign in 2015icantly by gender Utah Men Utah Women Top ve undergraduaBusineste degs, Management,rees for Utah men and womenHealth Professions and Marketing, and Related Related Programs, 17.9% Support Services, 20.2%

Utah Men Utah Women Business, Management, All other, All other, Health Professions and Marketing, and Related Related Programs, 17.9% 46.7% Social 46.7% Support Services, 20.2% Education, Sciences , 13.7% 9.3%

Engineering, All other, 9.1% All other, Business, Management, 46.7% Social 46.7% EducationMarke,ting, and Sciences , Biological & 13Rel.7%ated Support Bi9.ome3%dical Psychology, Social Services , 7.9% Sciences , 7.1% Sciences , 7.8% Computer and 6.7% Information SciencesEngineering and , Business, Support Services , 6.9% 9.1% Management, Marketing, and Biological & Related Support Biomedical Psychology, Note: Degrees completed at USHE institutions, BYU, and WestminsterSocial Services , 7.9% Sciences , 7.1% Sciences , Source: Integrated Postsec7.8%ondary Education Data System (IPEDS), 2014-2015 Provisional Release of Degree Completions Computer and 6.7% Information Sciences and Support Services , 6.9%

Note: Degrees completed at USHE institutions, BYU, and Westminster Source: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), 2014-2015 Provisional Release of Degree Completions

46 | Education Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 InMany Utah STEM an majorsy STEM dominated majors by men contin in Utahue In Utah taon bye STEM domina majorsted b cyontin menue to be dominated by men Top male andT femaleop male dominated and degrees female in Utah dominated degrees in Utah Top male and female dominated degrees in Utah Most male dominated degrees: Male Female Most mComalepu dominter and Informatiated degon Scienrees:ces 89.5% Male Female10.5% and Support Computer and Information Sciences 89.5% 10.5% and SuEngineeringpport 88.9% 11.1% Business, Management,Engineering Marketing, 88.9% 11.1% 72.4% 27.6% and Related Support Services Business, Management, Marketing, 72.4% 27.6% anBiod lRoegilactaeld a Snudp Bipomrt eSdeircalvices Sciences 64.5% 35.5% BioloForeigngical and L anBiogmuages,edical Liter Sciencesatures, and 64.5% 35.5% 64.1% 35.9% Linguistics Foreign Languages, Literatures, and 64.1% 35.9% Linguistics 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

Most female dominated degrees: Male Female Most femaFamilyle domin and Coantsedum edegr Scienrees:ces 12.8% 87.2% Male Female Family and Consumer Sciences 12.8% 87.2% Education 19.5% 80.5% Health ProfessiEodnsucation and Related19.5% 80.5% 22.0% 78.0% Programs Health Professions and Related English Language and 22.0% 78.0% Programs 30.0% 70.0% Literature/Letters English Language and 30.0% 70.0% Literature/LetPsychologyters 34.6% 65.4% Psychology 34.6% 65.4% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Note: Bachelors degrees completed at USHE institutions, BYU, and Westminster in 2015 Note: SBachourceelors: Integ degrraetesed completed Postsecondary at USHE Educ instiationtutio Dants,a SystemBYU, and (IPE WestDS)m, 2inste014-r2 in015 20 P15rovisional Release of Degree Completions Source: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), 2014-2015 Provisional Release of Degree Completions

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Education | 47 Utah's middle class has shrunk since the 1980s

Share of households in the middle class

48 | Income and Debt Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Utah’s distribution of income is among the most equal in the US

Gini Index of Income Equality 0 = complete equality; 1 = complete inequality

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Income and Debt | 49 Real average hourly wages have improved but remain below 2007 average

Utah real private average hourly earnings index Seasonally adjusted, 2007 average = 100

50 | Income and Debt Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Net earnings contribution to personal income shrinking

Utah components of personal income

81.3% 72.3%

81.3% 72.3%

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Income and Debt | 51 Utah bankruptcy filing rate is declining in a strong economy, remains above US rate

Consumer bankruptcy cases, Utah and US Number of Chapter 7, 11, and 13 cases commenced per 1,000 adult population

52 | Income and Debt Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Real SaReallt La Saltke Lakeathl athletesetes p playlay forfor the th lovee lo ofve the o fgame the game Real Salt Lake athletes play for the love of the game ReaReall S Saltalt LakeLake LosLos An Angelesgeles Galaxy Galaxy ((TenTen h highestighest 20162016 ssalaries)alaries) ((TenTen hhighestighest 2016 ssalaries)alaries) Real Salt Lake Los Angeles Galaxy Player Salary Player Salary (Ten highest 2016 salaries) (Ten highest 2016 salaries) Juan Manuel $1,060,000 Steven Gerrard $6,000,000 Player Salary Player Salary Martinez Robbie Keane $3,500,000 Juan ManKuyelel Beckerman $1,060,00$0675,000 Steven Gerrard $6,000,000 Martinez Javier Morales $590,000 Giovani Dos Santos $2,500,000 Kyle Beckerman $675,000 Robbie Keane $3,500,000

Nick Rimando $400,000 Gyasi Zardes $472,500 Javier Morales $590,000 Giovani Dos Santos $2,500,000

Chris Wingert $235,000 Landon Donovan $456,000 Nick Rimando $400,000 Gyasi Zardes $472,500

Stephen Sunday $220,000 Jelle Van Damme $425,000 Chris Wingert $235,000 Landon Donovan $456,000

Tony Beltran $210,000 Ashley Cole $300,000 Stephen Sunday $220,000 Jelle Van Damme $425,000

Jamison Olave $215,000 Mike Magee $250,000 Tony Beltran $210,000 Ashley Cole $300,000

Yura Movsisyan $200,000 Robbie Rogers $220,000 Jamison Olave $215,000 Mike Magee $250,000

Joao Plata $175,000 A. J. DeLaGarxa $225,000 Yura Movsisyan $200,000 Robbie Rogers $220,000

Joao Plata $175,000 A. J. DeLaGarxa $225,000 Source: Spotrac

Source: Spotrac

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Income and Debt | 53 UtUtah’sah‘s perper capita cap istudentta stud loanen debtt loa hasn d moreebt than tripled since 2003, ranks low has more than tripled since 2003, ranks low Utah per capita debt by loan type Constant 2015 dollars Utah per capita debt by loan type Constant 2015 dollars

Q4 2003 Q4 2015 03 - 15 Loan Type $ Rank $ Rank Change Auto Loan $3,851 18 $4,490 13 16.6% Credit Card $3,336 43 $2,640 29 -20.9% Mortgage Loan $35,129 14 $38,420 12 9.4% Student Loan $1,005 45 $3,870 46 285.1% Other $3,358 - $2,730 - -18.7% Total $46,679 16 $52,150 13 11.7%

Note: Per capita gures are limited to individuals 18 years and over. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, State Level Household Debt Statistics 2003-2015

54 | Income and Debt Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Utah goods and services are less expensive Utah goodthan ins a 23nd other ser statesvices are less expensive than in 23 other states Regional Price Parities, 2014 Utah goodsR aegndio nsealr viPriccees P aarreiti lees,s 2 014 expensive than in 23 other states WA 103.8 ME MT ND VT Regional Price Parities, 2014 97.1 94.2 91.5 101.2 OR MN ID 97.6 NH 99.0 105.2 WA 93.4 SD WI MI NY MA 103.8 WY 88.0 93.4 115.7 107.1 94.1 VT ME MT ND96.2 RI 101.2 97.1 CT 94.2 91.5 IA PA 98.7 MN NE OR 90.3 98.2 108.8 ID NV 97.6 90.6 OH NH 99.0 UT IL IN 89.3 105.2 NJ 93.4 97.7 SD WI NY CA 97.0 CO MI 100.7 91.4 WV MA MD114.5 88.0 93.4 115.7 112.4 WY 102.0 KS 94.1MO 88.9 107.1VA 110.3 96.2 90.7 KY 1R02.6I IA 89.4 PA CT NE 88.7 98.7 90.3 98.2 108.8 NC NV 90.6 OH TN OK 91.7 97.7 UT AZ IL IN 89.3 90.2 NJ NM 90.1 AR SC CA 97.0 CO96.4 100.7 91.4 WV MD114.5 95.0 87.5 90.5 112.4 102.0 KS MO 88.9 VA 110.3 <90.0 KY MS AL GA 90.7 89.4 102.6 88.7 86.7 87.8 92.0 90.1 - 95.0 NC TX TN LA 91.7 95.1 - 100.0 AK OK 96.6 AZ 90.291.4 105.7 NM 90.1 AR SC 100.1 - 105.0 96.4 87.5 FL 95.0 90.5 <90.0 105.1 - 110.0 HI MS AL GA 99.1 116.8 86.7 87.8 92.0 90.1 - 95.0 >110.0 TX LA 95.1 - 100.0 AK 96.6 105.7 91.4 100.1 - 105.0 FL 105.1 - 110.0 HI 99.1 116.8Note: Regional Price Parities measure the di erences in price levels of goods and services>1 ac1r0o.s0s regions for a given year; they are expressed as a percentage of the overall national price level for each year. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Note: Regional Price Parities measure the di erences in price levels of goods and services across regions for a given year; they are expressed as a percentage of the overall national price level for each year. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Sales and Prices | 55 UtahnsUtahnsenj enjoyoy l low-costow-cost electricity electricity Utahns enjoy low-cost electricity

Average retail price of electricity to residential sector Cents/kWh, September 2016

WA 9.6 WA ME MT ND VT 9.6 16.3 11.6 11.9 ME 17.5 MT ND MN VT OR 16.3 ID11.6 11.9 13.9 17.5 NH 10.9 MN 18.4 OR 10.3 SD WI ID 13.9 MI NNYH MA 10.9 12.5 14.8 18.418.4 10.3 WY SD WI 15.8 NY 19.5 11.8 MI MA RI 12.5 14.8 18.4 CT WY IA 15.8 PA 19.5 20.5 11.8 NE RI 19.0 12.7 14.2CT NV 12.3IA OPAH 20.5 NJ 11.2 UT NE 12.7 IL IN 11.9 19.0 NV OH 14.2 16.2 CA 11.3 CO12.3 12.2 11.8 WV NJ MD 11.2 UT IL IN 11.9 18.2 12.8 KS MO 11.6 16.2VA 14.0 CA 11.3 CO 12.2 11.8 WKVY MD 12.9 11.3 11.7 18.2 12.8 KS MO 11.610.5 VA 14.0 KY NC 12.9 11.3 TN 11.7 OK 10.5 11.4 AZ 10.6 NC NM 11.1 AR TN SC 12.8 OK 11.4 AZ 12.9 10.410.6 12.7 NM 11.1 AR SC 12.8 MS AL GA 12.9 10.4 12.7 10.2 12.3 11.9 MS AL GA TX 10.2LA12.3 11.9 AK 11.1 TX 9.5 20.9 LA AK 11.1 FL 9.5 20.9 11.4 HI FL 27.8 < 11.5 c/kWh11.4 HI 27.8 < 11.5 c/k11Wh.5 - 13.0 c/kWh 11.5 - 13.013 c.1/k -Wh 17.5 c/kWh 13.1 - 17.5> 1c/7k.Wh5 c/kWh > 17.5 c/kWh

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

56 | Sales and Prices Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Signi cant growth in nonstore retail activity Significant growth in nonstore retail activity

Composition of Utah retail salesComposition of Utah Retail Sales 2006 vs.Signi 2016 cant growth in nons20to06r evsr. e20t1ail6 activity

22.3% 2016 Motor vehicle & parts dealers 22.7% 2006 Composition of Utah Retail Sales 14.8% Nonstore retailers 9.2% 2006 vs. 2016 13.9% General merchandise stores 15.0% 2016 Motor vehicle & parts dealers 22.311.0% % Food & beverage stores 22.710.9% % 2006 14.8% Nonstore retailers 9.2% 9.3% Food services and drinking places 7.5% 13.9% General merchandise stores 15.0% 7.3% Gasoline stations 10.0% Food & beverage stores 11.0% 10.9% 6.4% Building material & garden equip. & supplies 9.3% 8.1% Food services and drinking places 7.5% 3.6% Health & personal care stores7.3% Gasoline stations 10.0%2.3% Clothing & clothing accessories stores6.4% 3.3% Building material & garden equip. & supplies 8.1% 3.6% Health & personal care stores 3.6% 2.6% Furniture & home furnishings2.3 %stores 3.5% 3.3% Clo Sthpiongrt i&n cglo gthoiongd sa;c hceosbbysorie;s b sotooresk; & music3.6 sto%res 2.1% 2.6% 2.7% Furniture & home furnishings stores 3.5% 1.9% Miscellaneous store retailers 2.2% Sporting goods; hobby; book; & music stores 2.1% 2.7% 1.4% Electronics & applian1.9ce% stores 2.3% Miscellaneous store retailers 2.2% 1.4% Electronics & appliance stores 2.3% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0%

Note: 2016 is estimated. 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0%

Note: 2016So isu ersctiema: Kted.m Source: Kem

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Sales and Prices | 57 -retailers Most of the nation’shave largest nexus e-retailers in Utah have nexus in Utah -retailers

Utah nexus for largestUtah US e-retailersha nevxuse n eforxus lar igne Usttah US e-retailers E-Retailers with more thanE- $4Re tbillionailers saleswith in mo 2015re than $4 billion sales in 2015 Utah nexus for largest US e-retailers E-Retailers with more than $4 billion sales in 2015 2015 Sales Utah E-Retailer ($ billions) Nexus Amazon.com Inc. 2015 Sales $92.5UtahNo* AppE-Rleet Inaciler. ($ billions) $24.4NexusYes AmaDzonell. cInomc. Inc. $92.5$15.7No* Yes AppleW aInlmc.art.com $24.4$13.7 Yes Yes Dell ISntca.ples Inc. $15.7$10.7 Yes Yes WalmMaarct.y'coms Inc. $13.7$6.2 Yes Yes StapTlehse I nHco. me Depot Inc. $10.7$4.7 Yes Yes Macy'Cso stIncco. Wholesale Corp. $6.2$4.5 Yes Yes The HOo mce Depepot Inc. $4.7$4.4 Yes Yes CostcQoVC W holGroeuspale Corp. $4.5$4.3 Yes No O cWe .DWe.p Gotra Iincg.er Inc. $4.4$4.1 Yes Yes QVC BGerstou Bpuy Co. $4.3$4.0 No Yes W.W. Grainger Inc. $4.1 Yes *A liates with nexuBs einst U tBahu musy Cto co. llect and remit sale tax for Utah$4.0 purchases. Y Amaes zon began voluntarily collecting and remitting sales tax for Utah on January 1, 2017. Source: Internet Retailer and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute *A liates with nexus in Utah must collect and remit sale tax for Utah purchases. Amazon began voluntarily collecting and remitting sales tax for Utah on January 1, 2017. Source: Internet Retailer and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

58 | Sales and Prices Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Structural changes in tastes and preferences

Millenial expenditure growth Year-over-year percent change & change from 2012 to 2015 20%- Recovering Expanding

15%-

10%- Food away from Home

Transportation 5%- Housing-Owned Entertainment Alcohol 0%- Apparel Housing-Rented Food at -5%- Home

Contracting Decelerating -10%- 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Percent change from three years ago Share of Average Total Expenditures <5.5% 5.5% – 8.0% >8.0%

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Sales and Prices | 59 Does Utah have a housing shortage? Now more new households than new units

Growth in housing units and households in Utah

60 | Real Estate and Construction Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Sustainable construction job levels?

Construction jobs as a percent of all jobs

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Real Estate and Construction | 61 Utah’s long-running housing price increase nineteenth highest in nation

Real change in FHFA Home Price Index, 1980–2015

62 | Real Estate and Construction Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Elevated multifamily construction activity

Utah residential construction Permitted units

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Real Estate and Construction | 63 Inflation-adjusted nonresidential construction value reached a record $2.5 billion in 2016

Value of permit-authorized construction in Utah Millions of constant 2016 dollars

64 | Real Estate and Construction Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Will low for-sale inventory continue to push prices upwards?

Index of for-sale inventory Seasonally adjusted, 2010 average = 100

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Real Estate and Construction | 65 Housing prices on the rise in Utah metros

Median existing home prices Utah metro areas

66 | Real Estate and Construction Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 UtahU travelerstah tra spendingveler s atpe an recordding high Utah travt eal erer csopredn hdiginhg at a record high Direct Utah traveler spendingDirect Utah traveler spending Millions of constant 2015D dollarsirect UMtaillhio ntsr ofav ceonlestra nstp 2015en didonllagrs $9,000 Millions of constant 2015 dollars $8,169 $9,000 $7,982 $8,000 $7,571 $7,638 $7,486 $7,530 $8,169 $7,277 $7,982 $8,000 $6$7,8,15271 $7,486 $6,805 $7,530 $7,638 $7,000 $7,277 $6,189 $6,812 $6,805 $7,000$6,000 $6,189 $6,000$5,000

$5,000$4,000

$4,000$3,000

$3,000$2,000

$2,000$1,000

$1,000 $0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 $0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of D.K. Shi et and TNS Global data

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of D.K. Shi et and TNS Global data

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Travel and Tourism | 67 Travel andTr tourismavel a activitynd to inu rUtahism bolsters activ isignificantty in jobs TravUetla ahn bdo tolsuterirssm sig ancti ivciatyn itn jobs Utah bolsters signi cant jobs Utah tourism-generated jobsUtah tourism-generated jobs Utah tourism-generated jobs 145,000 142,500 145,000 142,500 140,000 138,800 136,900 137,200 140,000 138,800 135,000 136,900 137,200 132,700 135,000 129132,6,70000 130,000

126,200 126129,8,60000 130,000 125,400 124,500 125,000 125,102060,200 126,800 125,400 125,000 125,000 124,500 120,000

120,000 115,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 115,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data

68 | Travel and Tourism Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 ChineseChinese visit visitorsors cl claimingaiming larger larg ander largerand larger Chinesesh vaisresitshareso orsf ca ofllla allifmo foreignrienigg nl avisitor vrisigert ospending ar nspde lnardginger shares of all foreign visitor spending InternationalIn visitortern Visaatio cardnal visitor visa card Utah spending shares Top marketsInter andna thetio restnal of thevi sworldiTtoopr m vairskaet sc aandrd th Ue rteasht o sf tpehe nwodirldng shares 100.0% Top markets and the rest of the world 100.0%90.0% 90.0% 80.0% 43.9% 44.1% 42.2% 43.4% 50.5% 80.0%70.0% 43.9% 44.1% 42.2% 43.4% 50.5% 70.0%60.0% 60.0%50.0% 24.4% 19.3% 26.7% 25.4% 50.0%40.0% 19.3% 24.4% 19.3% 26.7% 25.4% 40.0%30.0% 19.3% 25.3% 30.0%20.0% 23.9% 25.5% 20.8% 25.0% 25.3% 20.0%10.0% 23.9% 25.5% 20.8% 25.0% 12.0% 6.6% 7.9% 9.4% 10.0% 0.0% 4.4% 12.0% 2012 6.6% 2013 7.9% 2014 9.4% 2015 2016 0.0% 4.4% 2012 Chin2013a EU & U.K.2014Canada 2015Rest of World2016

Note: Estimates arCe hbainsead on anEd Uext &ra pUo.lKat.ed fromC aggnaredagate depeRrseosnat lofize dW caordrl udsage data. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of VisaVue® Travel data Note: Estimates are based on and extrapolated from aggregate depersonalized card usage data. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of VisaVue® Travel data

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Travel and Tourism | 69 Total skier days up despite lower Total skier days up despite lower average annual snowfall Total skaierve draagyes upan nduesapl sitneo lwowfaerll average annual snowfall Utah skier days vs. totalUt aannualh sk snowfallier days vs. total annual snowfall Utah skier days vs. total annual snowfall 700.0 5.0 Skier Days (millions) 700.0 Snowfall (inches; Alta, Utah) 5.0 4.5 600.0 Skier Days (millions) 4.0 Snowfall (inches; Alta, Utah) 4.5 600.0 500.0 4.0 3.5 3.0 500.0 400.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 400.0 300.0 2.5 2.0 300.0 200.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 200.0 100.0 1.0 0.5 100.0 0.0 0.5 0.0

0.0 -96 -97 -98 -99 -00 -01 -02 -03 -04 -05 -06 -07 -08 -09 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15 0.0-16 199 5 199 6 199 7 199 8 199 9 200 0 200 1 200 2 200 3 200 4 200 5 200 6 200 7 200 8 200 9 201 0 201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 -96 -97 -98 -99 -00 -01 -02 -03 -04 -05 -06 -07 -08 -09 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15 -16

Sourc199 5 es: S199 6 ki Ut199 7 ah an199 8 d Al199 9 ta Av200 0 alanc200 1 he C200 2 ente200 3 r 200 4 200 5 200 6 200 7 200 8 200 9 201 0 201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5

Sources: Ski Utah and Alta Avalanche Center

70 | Travel and Tourism Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Utah Utahpar parksks d rdrawaw recordreco rvisitationd visitation Utah parks draw record visitation

Utah national park andU placetah visitationnational park and place visitation Millions of visitors Utah national parMki llaionnds o plf vaisictore svisitation 14.0 Millions of visitors 13.2 National Places 14.0 National Parks 13.211.9 12.0National Places 10.711.9 National P1a0r.3ks 10.4 10.1 12.0 10.1 9.9 9.8 10.0 4.9 9.5 9.5 10.0 9.3 9.0 9.1 9.2 10.7 10.3 8.9 8.9 10.4 10.1 4.6 10.1 9.9 9.8 10.0 4.9 10.0 9.5 9.3 9.5 4.1 9.0 9.1 9.2 4.1 3.8 8.0 4.8 8.9 8.9 3.8 4.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 3.8 4.5 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.8 8.0 4.6 4.8 3.8 6.0 4.6 3.7 3.8 4.5 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 6.0 4.0 8.4 7.2 6.3 6.6 6.3 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.1 4.0 5.5 5.3 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.5 8.4 7.2 2.0 6.3 6.6 6.3 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.1 5.5 5.3 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.5 2.0 0.0

0.0

Note: National Places include national monuments, recreation areas, and historic sites; Flaming Gorge NRA data not included. Note: NSaotiuonarcel :P Klaecmes Cin. cGlaurdden naer tiPonalicyl mInostitnuumtee nanats, lryescisr eoafti Noanti aornaeals P, anarkdS heirsvtoicreic d saitteas; Flaming Gorge NRA data not included. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of National Park Service data

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Travel and Tourism | 71 Only DC has faster internet speeds than Utah

Highest internet connection speeds in the US Average mbps, Q3 2016

72 | Resources Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Utah a top state for solar

States with most solar electric capacity installed in 2015 Megawatts installed

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Resources | 73 Utah contributes just over one percent to nation’s energy production

States’ share of total US energy production 87,228 trillion Btu, 2014

74 | Resources Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Utah consumes less energy per capita than national average

Energy consumption per capita Million Btu, 2014

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Resources | 75 High record temperatures more common than low record in recent decade

Salt Lake City temperature records Number of daily high and low records set in each 10-year period

Note: Lines are 3-period moving averages

76 | Resources Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Drought conditions improve

Share of Utah land area in drought conditions Average annual weekly drought percentages

Note: 2016 is an estimate Source: United States Drought Monitor

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Resources | 77 Utah one of eleven states with triple-triple rating

States with triple-triple rating AAA rating from Fitch, Moody’s, and S&P

ntriple-triple rating

Source: The Bond Buyer, Novermber 2016

78 | Fiscal Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Almost a quarter of all state sales and use tax collections are earmarked

State of Utah sales and use tax collections Millions of current dollars

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Fiscal | 79 Utah has a healthy rainy day fund

State of Utah budget reserve accounts Millions of current dollars

80 | Fiscal Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Education, education, education

Budget of the State of Utah All funds, Fiscal Year 2017

Federal Funds, 26% Social Services, 26% Federal Funds, 26% Social Services, 26%

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Fiscal | 81 Utah exports begin to recover

Utah merchandise exports (millions of dollars)

82 | International Trade Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Top ten Utah export purchasing countries: 2015

Utah is global

Top ten Utah export purchasing countries: 2015 (millions of dollars)

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute International Trade | 83 Thar’s gold in them thar hills

Top ten Utah export industries: 2015 (millions of dollars)

84 | International Trade Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 The age of acceleration

“When I wrote 'The World Is Flat,' I said the world is flat. Yeah, we're all connected. Facebook didn't exist; Twitter was a sound; the cloud was in the sky; 4G was a parking place; LinkedIn was a prison; applications were what you sent to college; and Skype, for most people, was a typo.”

- Thomas Friedman

Source: Thank You for Being Late, Thomas L. Friedman

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute International Trade | 85 UtahUtah is home is home t too aa global globa religion—nowl religion moreno w more intinternationalernationa thanl tha USn membersUS members Utah is home to a global religion now Church of JesusChumo Christrchre ofin of Latter-daytJesusernation C Saintshrista membershipl of tha Lantt erUS-d membersay Saints membership

Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints membership 18,000,000 15,634,199 16,000,000 18,000,000 14,000,000 15,634,199 16,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 9,102,543 8,000,000 10,000,000 6,531,656 6,000,000 9,102,543 8,000,000 4,000,000 6,531,656 6,000,000 2,000,000 4,000,000 0 2,000,000 1980 1990 2000 2015 0 Total US International 1980 1990 2000 2015 Total US International Sources: Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints

Sources: Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints

86 | International Trade Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Over $1.6 billion in defense contracts and grants obligated in Utah in FY 2015

County shares of $1.6 B FY 15 defense contracts & grants

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Economic Strength and Diversity | 87 Utah’s defense industry economic boot print

Share of Utah defense sector total economic impacts by component, 2015

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

88 | Economic Strength and Diversity Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Utah’s economy among the most diverse in the nation most diverse in the nation Hachman Index of GDP diversity 2-digit NAICS, 2015 most diverse in the nation

WA 87.0 ME MT ND VT 90.8 WA 79.7 48.3 90.7 MN 87.0 OR NH ID 94.2 ME 73.4 MT ND VT 93.0 79.7 SD WI 90.8NY 79.7 48.3 MI 90.7 MA WY MN62.1 92.5 80.3 89.8 OR 86.7 NH ID 28.2 94.2 RI 73.4 93.0 CT 79.7 SD WI IA PA 88.0 NE MI NY MA 90.2 62.1 92.5 75.2 95.7 NV WY 65.4 86.7 OH80.3 89.8 NJ 61.7 28.2UT IL IN 93.3 RI 91.7 CT CA 96.7 CO IA 95.7 74.6 PA WV 88.0 MD NE 90.2 93.8 93.1 75.2KS MO 95.7 54.0 VA 86.7 NV 65.4 OH KY NJ UT 91.5 IL 96.7IN 88.8 61.7 93.3 89.9 91.7 CA 96.7 CO 95.7 74.6 WV MD NC 54.0TN VA 93.8 93.1 KS MOOK 86.7 90.4 AZ KY 91.988.8 NM 91.5 96.758.6 AR SC 93.6 89.9 64.3 88.0 NC 90.7 TN AL OK MS 90.4GA AZ 91.9 91.0 NM 58.6 AR 87.5 SC 95.9 93.6 T8X8.0 AK 64.3 LA 90.7 < 50.0 73.2 MS AL GA 31.7 68.5 50.0 - 75.0 87.5 91.0 95.9 FL TX LA 9<1.2 50.0 75.1 - 90.0 AK HI 73.2 31.7 71.9 68.5 50.0 - 75.0 > 90.0 FL 91.2 75.1 - 90.0 HI 71.9 > 90.0

Note: An index value of 100 means that the distribution of state GDP among industries is exactly like that of the nation. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Note: An index value of 100 means that the distribution of state GDP among industries is exactly like that of the nation. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Economic Strength and Diversity | 89 Select Delta Air Lines routes

Delta Air Lines U.S. and Canada Routes

Whitehorse Fort St. John Yellowknife Terrace Ft. McMurray Grande Prairie

Prince George

Edmonton

Comox Kamloops Nanaimo Vancouver Calgary/Ban Abbotsford Kelowna Saskatoon Deer Lake Victoria Penticton Bellingham St. John’s, NL Seattle/Tacoma C A N A D A Wenatchee Spokane Pasco/Richland Regina ALASKA Portland /Kennewick Kalispell Winnipeg Yakima Sydney Fairbanks Pullman Great Falls CANADA Walla Missoula Charlottetown Walla Lewiston Moncton Eugene Redmond/Bend Helena Williston Minot International Falls Butte Grand Thunder Bay Québec Forks Fredericton Bozeman Chisholm/ Halifax Bemidji Hibbing Anchorage Billings Bismarck Medford Duluth Marquette Sault Ste. Boise West Yellowstone Fargo Brainerd Montreal Marie Bangor Cody Ottawa Juneau Sun Valley Idaho Falls Rhinelander Iron Mountain Pellston/Mackinac Island Twin Aberdeen Escanaba Burlington Portland Sitka Falls Jackson Hole Gillette Minneapolis/ Alpena Traverse Rapid City St. Paul Wausau Green Bay City Pocatello Toronto Manchester Appleton/ Albany Boston Ketchikan Elko Fox Cities Midland/ Syracuse Santa Rosa Rochester Grand Saginaw Casper La Crosse Rapids Rochester Hartford/ Reno/Tahoe Sioux Falls Milwaukee London Ithaca Springfield Martha’s Vineyard San Sacramento Flint Bu alo/ Elmira/ Niagara FallsCorning Binghamton Nantucket Francisco Oakland Madison Kalamazoo/ Lansing Newburgh Providence Salt Lake City Cedar Rapids/ Battle Creek San Jose Iowa City Wilkes-Barre/ White Plains Mammoth Detroit Erie Scranton Lakes Hayden/Steamboat Springs Omaha Chicago South Bend Cleveland New York (JFK, LGA) State Allentown (ORD, MDW) Akron/Canton College Newark Eagle/Vail/Beaver Creek Des Moines Peoria Fresno/Yosemite Moline/ Philadelphia Cedar City Grand Junction Bloomington Ft. Wayne Pittsburgh Aspen/ Denver Lincoln Quad Harrisburg Cities Columbus St. George Snowmass Baltimore Montrose/ Colorado Springs Dayton Telluride Kansas City Indianapolis Washington, D.C. (DCA, IAD) Las Vegas Cincinnati Santa Barbara Charlottesville Pacific Charleston Burbank St. Louis Ontario Louisville Richmond Ocean Lexington Newport News/Williamsburg Los Angeles Palm Springs Wichita Evansville Springfield/ Norfolk/Virginia Beach Long Beach Orange County Branson Roanoke Tri-Cities Greensboro/High Point/Winston-Salem San Diego Albuquerque Tulsa Fayetteville/ Nashville Raleigh/Durham Northwest Arkansas Knoxville New Bern Phoenix/Scottsdale Asheville Charlotte Jacksonville/Camp Lejeune Oklahoma City Ft. Smith Greenville/ Memphis Fayetteville/Ft. Bragg Chattanooga Spartanburg Wilmington Tucson Little Rock Huntsville/ Decatur Columbia Myrtle Beach Atlantic Ocean Columbus/ Starkville/ Atlanta Dallas/ Birmingham Augusta El Paso/ Ft. Worth West Point Charleston (DFW) Columbus/Ft. Benning Kauai Ciudad Juárez Dallas Love Monroe Field (DAL) Montgomery Jackson Savannah Oahu Shreveport Lihue Killeen/Ft. Hood Dothan Albany Brunswick Kahului Mobile Valdosta Honolulu Maui Delta Air Lines/Delta Connection/ Alexandria Baton Pensacola Jacksonville Delta Joint Venture Route Austin Rouge Tallahassee New Route Starting this Month Lafayette Gulfport/Biloxi Panama City Houston New Orleans Daytona Beach H AWA I I Hilo Future Route Service San Antonio (IAH, HOU) Destin/ Gainesville Ft. Walton Beach Orlando Kona Hawaii Destination served by Delta/Delta Connection Tampa/St. Petersburg Melbourne Destination served by one of Delta’s Worldwide Codeshare Sarasota/Bradenton West Palm Beach Partners Ft. Myers/Naples Pacific Ocean E ective November 2016. Select routes are seasonal. Some Ft. Lauderdale/ future services subject to government approval. Service Harlingen/ Hollywood may be operated by one of Delta’s codeshare partner M E XI C O South Padre Island airlines or one of Delta’s Connection Carriers. Flights are Miami BAHAMAS subject to change without notice. Gulf of Mexico Key West

Source: Delta Air Lines

90 | Economic Strength and Diversity Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Salt Lake City possesses outstanding rail connectivity

Union Pacific Rail Network

Seattle Eastport Spokane

Portland Hinkle Duluth

Eugene Minneapolis/St. Paul

Milwaukee Pocatello

Chicago Ogden Des Moines Cheyenne North Platte Omaha Salt Lake City Roseville Reno Oakland San Francisco Stockton Denver Topeka St. Louis Fresno Kansas City Wichita Las Vegas Oklahoma City Memphis Los Angeles Colton Amarillo Little Rock Long Beach Phoenix Pine Blu Lubbock Calexico Texarkana Tucson Dallas Shreveport El Paso Ft.Worth Nogales Livonia San Antonio New Orleans Houston Eagle Pass

Laredo

Brownsville

Source: Reproduced based on official route map of Union Pacific

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Economic Strength and Diversity | 91 The Utah economy mirrors the nation’s

US and Utah GDP by Industry US and Utah GDP by industry Percent of total GDP, 2015US and UtahPercen GDt of tPot abl yGD InP, dust2015 ry Percent of total GDP, 2015 Agriculture, forestry, shing, and hunting Agriculture, forestry, shing, and hunt i ngMining Mi n iUtngilities C Utonilsittiresuction Durable go o Cdos nmsatrnuucftaiocnturing D Nuorandbluer gaboloed gsoo mdanus mfaacnutufraingcturing Nondurable goods m a nuWhfaoclteusrailnge trade Wholesa l eR tertaadeil trade Transportation a ndRet waial retrahdeousing Transportation and ware h Ionufosirngmation Fina n cInef oandrm aintisounrance Rea l e sFtiatnaen acned a rnden itnasl uarndan leceasing Prof e s sRioeanla el,s stcatiene atni dc, r eanndta tl eacndhn leicasil sngervices Pro f e s Msioanalg, escmienentti oc,f coanmd patecnhniesic aandl ser envitceerps rises MAdanmaigneismtrenatitv eo fa condm wpaasnteie ms aandna genemteerpnrti seservices Administrative and waste man a g Eedmuecnati osernavli csesrvices Heal t h cEadreuc aandtio nsoacl isael rasvicsiesstance H e Aarlths, ceanreter atndain smenociatl, asansdis traencreceation Utah Ar t s , eAnctceromtaminomendattio, ann adn rde fcoreoadt isoernvices UtahUnited States Other services, except government Accommodation and food services United States Other services, except gov e Grnomentvernment Government 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%

Source: Kem Source: Kem

92 | Economic Strength and Diversity Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 With good data and information come better decisions Leadership truisms Informed Decisions

1. Leadership is an activity, not a position.

2. Anyone can lead, anytime, anywhere.

3. It starts with you and must engage others.

4. Your purpose must be clear.

5. It’s risky.

Source: Kansas Leadership Center

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Shedding Light | 93 Progress often requires a person to get out of their comfort zone

Where the Magic Happens

Your Comfort Zone

Source: Herminia Ibarra

94 | Shedding Light Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 If we enhance our ability to adapt even slightly it can make a significant difference

Learning faster and growing smarter We are here Rate of change

Human adaptability

Technology

Time

Source: Thank You For Being Late, Thomas L. Friedman

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Shedding Light | 95 With good data and information come better decisions With good data and information come better decisions Informed Decisions n i o i s de c

oo d g

a

g i n k a m f o

y i t bi l b a o r P

Good data and information

96 | Shedding Light Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Staff and Advisors

Leadership Team Staff Natalie Gochnour, Director Samantha Ball, Research Associate Jennifer Robinson, Associate Director DJ Benway, Research Analyst James A. Wood, Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow Anna Bergevin, Research Associate Dianne Meppen, Director of Survey Research Cathy Chambless, Senior Research Associate Pamela S. Perlich, Director of Demographic Research John C. Downen, Senior Research Analyst Juliette Tennert, Director of Economics and Public Policy Ken Embley, Senior Research Associate Emily Harris, Demographic Analyst Faculty Advisors Michael T. Hogue, Senior Research Statistician Matt Burbank, Political Science Department Mike Hollingshaus, Demographer Adam Meirowitz, Finance Department Shelley Kruger, Accounting and Finance Manager Senior Advisors Colleen Larson, Administrative Manager Jonathan Ball, Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst Jennifer Leaver, Research Analyst Gary Cornia, Marriott School of Business David LeBaron, Research Associate Dan Griffiths, Tanner LLC Sara McCormick, Senior Research Associate Roger Hendrix, Hendrix Consulting Levi Pace, Research Analyst Joel Kotkin, Chapman University Nicholas Thiriot, Communications Specialist Darin Mellott, CBRE Effie Johnson Van Noy, Utah State Data Derek Miller, World Trade Center Utah Center Coordinator Bud Scruggs, Cynosure Group Natalie Young, Research Analyst KEM C. GARDNER POLICY INSTITUTE SALT LAKE CHAMBER ADVISORY BOARD EXECUTIVE BOARD

Conveners Kimberly Gardner Martin Keith McMullin, Chair Victor Ingalls Michael O. Leavitt Ann Millner Lane Beattie Patricia W. Jones Mitt Romney Cristina Ortega Bruce Bingham Brent Low Board Jason Perry Jake Boyer Molly Mazzolini Scott Anderson, Co-Chair Taylor Randall Terry H. Buckner Derek Miller Gail Miller, Co-Chair Jill Remington Love Gérald Caussé Jim Olson Doug Anderson Brad Rencher Lori Chillingworth Scott Parson Deborah Bayle Josh Romney Cindy Crane Ray D. Pickup Lane Beattie Charles W. Sorenson John Dahlstrom Vasilios Priskos Cynthia A. Berg James Lee Sorenson Spencer P. Eccles Steven Starks Roger Boyer Vicki Varela Chris Gamvroulas Nigel Steward Ken Bullock Ruth V. Watkins Natalie Gochnour Craig Wagstaff Wilford Clyde Ted Wilson David R. Golden Linda Wardell Sophia M. DiCaro Natalie Gochnour, Director Val Hale Bert R. Zimmerli Lisa Eccles Ex Officio Kay Hall Spencer P. Eccles Senator Orrin Hatch Matt Eyring Governor Gary Herbert Kem C. Gardner Speaker Greg Hughes Christian Gardner Senate President Wayne Matthew S. Holland Niederhauser Clark Ivory Representative Brian King Ron Jibson Senator Gene Davis Mike S. Leavitt Mayor Ben McAdams Vivian S. Lee Mayor Jackie Biskupski

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Thomas S. Monson Center I 411 E. South Temple Street Salt Lake City, UT 84111 I 801-585-5618 I gardner.utah.edu

AN INITIATIVE OF THE DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS