Sub-county Population in Ref: C1 2017 ONS Mid-year Population estimates for Clinical Commissioning Localities and Groups

Purpose of this brief 1. This briefing note outlines the latest release of national population estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for small areas. These estimates represent the resident population as of 30th June 2017 and have been released down to a LSOA level and by single year of age. This is a follow-up to an earlier report detailing county level trends published in July 2018 on the Population section of the Durham Insight website. 2. For the purpose of this report these figures have then been recast to the six Clinical Commissioning Localities (CCLs) and the two Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) they reside in to show long term sub-county trends. 3. Supplementary reports for Strategic Partnership areas and Area Action Partnership areas are also available on the Population section of the Durham Insight website. 4. Appendix 1 contains a detailed table of population change by year since 2001 by CCL and CCG area. 5. Appendix 2 contains details of population change by MSOA and a map showing the relationship between the CCL/CCG areas and MSOA boundaries covering the long term period of 2001 to 2017 and he short term period of 2011 to 2017. Map 1: Clinical Commissioning areas covering County Durham County Council

Key Messages 6. At a county level local population growth since 2001 has been driven by high positive net migration (+31,200 people) while natural change (births minus deaths) was negative (-1,200 people) during this period. 7. Over the shorter term since 2011 there was still high positive net migration (+10,800 people) along with negative natural change (-160 more births than deaths). 8. Between 2016 and 2017 there was high positive net migration again with an additional 2,100 people moving into the county while natural change remained negative with 550 more deaths than births. This has seen the county’s population increase by 0.3%/1,519 people. 9. Nearly three quarters (74.9%) of the population growth in the county has been in the North Durham CCG which increased by 9.9%, growth was particularly high within the Derwentside CCL and Durham CCL which grew by 10.8% and 14.3% respectively. 10. All six CCL areas have seen an increase in population between 2001 and 2017 with the largest growth in the Durham CCL (14.3%) area. Growth in has been relatively low in the Chester-le- Street CCL (1.2%), East Durham CCL (1.1%) and the CCL (1.6%) due to low positive net migration (+687, +594 and +1,127 more people entering the area than moving out of the areas). The Durham Dales CCL grew by 6.0% due high positive net migration (+7,421 people moving into the area) despite having high negative natural change (2,311 more deaths than births). 11. The 0 to 15 age group has fallen in the DDES CCG area by 8.4% since 2001 with the largest fall in the East Durham CCL of 10.6%. The North Durham CCG increased slightly by 0.2% over the same period. 12. However, since 2011 the North Durham CCG has seen its 0 to 15 population increase by over 1,600 children, an increase of 4.1%, while the DDES CCG increased slightly by 0.2%. 13. Both CCGs have seen increases in the working age population (aged 16 to 64) since 2001, though there is evidence of a recent decline since 2011. The North Durham CCG increased by 6.0%/8,921 people while across DDES CCG growth was lower at 0.2%/398 more people. Within the North Durham CCG the largest growth was in the Durham CCL with an increase of 10.8% (6,533 more people) while this group fell by 4.6% (1,599 fewer people) in the Chester-le-Street CCL. 14. Since 2011 growth in the working age group in the North Durham CCG has slowed showing only a 0.3% increase in the last six years with this group decreasing by 3.1% in the DDES CGG over the same period. Within the localities only the Durham CCL saw any growth in this group with an extra 3.5%/2,305 people. 15. All six localities have seen large increases, of between 14.0% (East Durham CCL 14.0%) and 43.0% (Chester-le-Street CCL 42.5%, Durham CCL 43.2%) in the number of older people (aged 65 and over). The largest increase has been in the North Durham CCG and its localities with an increase of 37.6% overall compared to 25.2% in the DDES CCG. 16. Growth in the 65+ age group since 2011 across both CCGs has been fairly even with growth of 16.4%/6,952 people in the North Durham CCG and 13.6%/6,913 people in the DDES CCG. A similar pattern is seen in the CCLs except for the East Durham CCL which only had growth of 8.6% in this period. 17. All areas have seen large increases in the number of people aged 85 and over since 2001 with increases of 42.6% in the North Durham CCG and 42.4% in the DDES CCG. Across the localities growth ranges from 31.2% increase in the Durham Dales CCL up to 61.8% increase in the Sedgefield CCL.

Population change by Clinical Commissioning Area Age group: Overall 18. Both CCG areas and their under lying CCL areas have seen varying degrees of population growth since 2001, in line with growth across the county as illustrated below. Unlike other sub-county geographies mentioned above, the county’s population is more evenly distributed across the CCLs with five areas having a population within the range 88,600 to 100,300, except for the Chester-le- Street CCL which has a population of just over 54,300. Figure 1a: % change in total population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: North Durham CCG and localities.

115% Durham CCL

Derwentside CCL

110% North Durham CCG

County Durham 105%

Chester-le-Street CCL % chnage %chnage from 2001 base 100% 2001 Base

95%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Figure 1b: % change in total population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: DDES CCG and localities.

115%

110%

Durham Dales CCL 105% County Durham DDES CCG Sedgefield CCL

East Durham CCL % chnage %chnage from 2001 base 100% 2001 Base

95%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

19. The majority of growth has been in the North Durham CCG area with an increase of 9.9%/22,454 people while the population in the DDES CCG grew by 2.8%/7,519 people. 20. Since 2011 there has been continued growth, however, while the North Durham CCG’s population grew by 3.7%/8,985 people there was only growth of 0.6%/1,683 people in the DDES CCG. The table below summarises some of these changes.

Table 1: Changes in total population between 2001, 2011 and 2017

Population Number change % change from from 2001 2011 2017 from 2001 from 2011 2001 2011 North Durham CCG 226,647 240,116 249,101 22,454 8,985 9.9% 3.7% Derwentside CCL 85,170 91,720 94,403 9,233 2,683 10.8% 2.9% Chester-le-Street CCL 53,679 54,116 54,326 647 210 1.2% 0.4% Durham CCL 87,798 94,280 100,372 12,574 6,092 14.3% 6.5% DDES CCG 267,042 272,878 274,561 7,519 1,683 2.8% 0.6% Durham Dales CCL 85,821 90,017 90,931 5,110 914 6.0% 1.0% East Durham CCL 93,990 95,111 95,009 1,019 -102 1.1% -0.1% Sedgefield CCL 87,231 87,750 88,621 1,390 871 1.6% 1.0% County Durham 493,689 512,994 523,662 29,973 10,668 6.1% 2.1% North East 2,540,100 2,596,400 2,644,727 104,627 48,327 4.1% 1.9% & Wales 52,360,000 56,170,900 58,744,595 6,384,595 2,573,695 12.2% 4.6% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

21. Within the North Durham CCG the Durham CCL had the largest increase in population of 14.3%/12,574 people with the Derwentside CCL a close second with population growth of 10.8%/9,233 people. The Chester-le-Street CCL has shown relatively little growth with only 1.2%/647 people since 2001. 22. This trend is also evident over the short term since 2011 with growth of 6.5%/6,092 people in the Durham CCL, growth of 2.9%/2,683 people in the Derwentside CCL and growth in the Chester-le- Street CCL only 0.4%/210 people, with this being lower than the growth in this area between 2001 and 2017 (0.5%/295 people). 23. Within the DDES CCG the Durham Dales CCL had the largest increase in population of 6.0% (5,110 people) with the East Durham CCL and the Sedgefield CCL having shown relatively little growth with only 1.1%/1,109 people and 1.6%/1,390 people respectively since 2001. 24. This trend is also evident over the short term since 2011 with growth of 1.0%/914 people in the Durham Dales CCL, a small decrease in the East Durham CCL and growth of 1.0%/871 people in the Sedgefield CCL. Age group: 0 to 15 25. There has been a fall in the 0 to 15 population since 2001 in the DDES CCG with a fall of 8.4%/4,481 children. The North Durham CCG saw a slight increase of 0.2%/69 children over the same period. 26. This low level of increase in the North Durham CCG is due to growth in the Derwentside and the Durham CCL’s of 5.1% and 3.6% respectively, compensating for the large fall in the Chester-le- Street CCL of 12.4%/1,278 children.

Figure 2a: % change in the 0 to 15 population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: North Durham CCG and localities.

105% Derwentside CCL

2001 Base 100%

Durham CCL

95% North Durham CCG

County Durham % chnage %chnage from 2001 base 90%

Chester-le-Street CCL

85%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Figure 2b: % change in the 0 to 15 population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: DDES CCG and localities.

105%

103%

101% 2001 Base 99% County Durham 97% Durham Dales CCL 95% DDES CCG 93% Sedgefield CCL % % chnage 2001 from base 91%

89% East Durham CCL

87%

85%

2009 2010 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

27. All CCL areas except Derwentside CCL and the Durham CCL have seen a decline in the number of children aged 0 to 15 since 2001, with the largest falls in the Chester-le-Street CCL of 12.4%/1,278 children and the East Durham CCL (fall of 10.6%/2,062 children) 28. However this decline has seen a reversal between 2011 and 2017 in the North Durham CCG, which increased by 4.1%/1,623 children, again due to growth in the Derwentside CCL and the Durham CCL. The data suggests that over this period that there has been relativity little decline/change in this age group in the three DDES CCG localities. 29. Proportionally the 0 to 15 age group has fallen continually since 2001 across the county from 19.1% to 17.2% of the county total population. All six CCL areas have seen falls of between 1.6 and 2.2 percentage points in this age group since 2001. The table below summarises some of these changes.

Table 2: Changes in the 0 to 15 age group between 2001, 2011 and 2017

Population Number change % change Proportion from from from from 2001 2011 2017 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2017 North Durham CCG 41,007 39,453 41,076 69 1,623 0.2% 4.1% 18.1% 16.4% Derwentside CCL 16,383 16,373 17,213 830 840 5.1% 5.1% 19.2% 18.1% Chester-le-Street CCL 10,332 9,288 9,054 -1,278 -234 -12.4% -2.5% 19.2% 16.5% Durham CCL 14,292 13,792 14,809 517 1,017 3.6% 7.4% 16.3% 14.6% DDES CCG 53,304 48,707 48,823 -4,481 116 -8.4% 0.2% 20.0% 17.7% Durham Dales CCL 16,353 15,462 15,461 -892 -1 -5.5% -0.0% 19.1% 16.9% East Durham CCL 19,455 17,332 17,393 -2,062 61 -10.6% 0.4% 20.7% 18.2% Sedgefield CCL 17,496 15,913 15,969 -1,527 56 -8.7% 0.4% 20.1% 18.0% County Durham 94,311 88,160 89,899 -4,412 1,739 -4.7% 2.0% 19.1% 17.1% North East 500,900 462,200 471,260 -29,640 9,060 -5.9% 2.0% 19.7% 17.9% England & Wales 10,495,200 10,586,000 11,197,231 702,031 611,231 6.7% 5.8% 20.0% 19.2% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

Age group: 16 to 64 30. Since 2001 both CCG areas have seen their working age populations (aged 16 to 64) grow. The North Durham CCG grew by 6.0%/8,921 people over this period while growth in the DDES CCG was low at 0.2%/398 people. Looking at the charts below it is evident that in the DDESS CCG the number of people in this age group is falling and has been since 2010. Figure 3a: % change in the 16 to 64 population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: North Durham CCG and localities.

Durham CCL 109%

107% Derwentside CCL

105% North Durham CCG 103%

101% County Durham

% chnage %chnage from 2001 base 99% 2001 Base

97%

Chester-le-Street CCL

95%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Figure 3b: % change in the 16 to 64 population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: DDES CCG and localities.

109%

107%

105%

103% County Durham Durham Dales CCL 101% East Durham CCL

% % chnage 2001 from base DDES CCG 99% 2001 Base

97% Sedgefield CCL

95%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

31. However, since 2011 there has been little growth in the North Durham CCG (growth of 0.3%/410 people) while this population has fallen in the DDES CCG (a fall of 3.1%/5,346 people). 32. Within the CCG areas only the Durham CCL has seen an increase in this population group, increasing by 3.5%/2,305 people and is in part due to the expansion of Durham University before the 2011 Census and its continued growth since then. The other five areas had falls of between 1.4% and 3.6% during this period. 33. Proportionally the 16 to 64 age group gradually increased between 2001 and 2008 to 65.2% from 64.4% of the county total population. Since 2008 this group has steadily fallen to 62.4% with a similar pattern seen across the clinical commissioning areas. 34. However, even though the portion of this age group has fallen in the East Durham area since 2008, it is the only area, overall to see an increase in this age group since 2001, an increase of 0.2%, which in part maybe due to the general lack of population growth in this area over the last five years and falling number of young people. The table below summarises some of these changes.

Table 3: Changes in the 16 to 64 working age group between 2001, 2011 and 2017

Population Number change % change Proportion from from from from 2001 2011 2016 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2016 North Durham CCG 149,790 158,301 158,711 8,921 410 6.0% 0.3% 66.1% 64.1% Derwentside CCL 54,039 58,824 58,026 3,987 -798 7.4% -1.4% 63.4% 61.9% Chester-le-Street CCL 35,046 34,544 33,447 -1,599 -1,097 -4.6% -3.2% 65.3% 62.0% Durham CCL 60,705 64,933 67,238 6,533 2,305 10.8% 3.5% 69.1% 67.2% DDES CCG 167,775 173,519 168,173 398 -5,346 0.2% -3.1% 62.8% 61.5% Durham Dales CCL 53,916 56,957 54,881 965 -2,076 1.8% -3.6% 62.8% 60.7% East Durham CCL 58,500 60,943 59,332 832 -1,611 1.4% -2.6% 62.2% 62.7% Sedgefield CCL 55,359 55,619 53,960 -1,399 -1,659 -2.5% -3.0% 63.5% 61.2% County Durham 317,565 331,820 326,884 9,319 -4,936 2.9% -1.5% 64.3% 62.7% North East 1,620,000 1,681,700 1,658,564 38,564 -23,136 2.4% -1.4% 63.8% 62.9% England & Wales 33,523,200 36,288,900 36,873,584 3,350,384 584,684 10.0% 1.6% 64.0% 63.2% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

Age group: 65+ 35. As with the county and other areas across the country both CCG areas have seen the number of people aged 65 and over increase since 2001 with growth of 37.6%/13,464 people in the North Durham CCG and 25.2%/11,602 people in the DDES CCG. Figure 4a: % change in the 65+ population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: North Durham CCG and localities.

145% Chester-le-Street CCL 140%

135% Durham CCL 130%

125% North Durham CCG

120% County Durham 115%

% % chnage 2001 from base 110% Derwentside CCL 105%

100% 2001 Base

95%

2012 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Figure 4b: % change in the 65+ population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: DDES CCG and localities.

145%

140%

135% Durham Dales CCL 130% County Durham 125%

120% Sedgefield CCL

115% DDES CCG

% % chnage 2001 from base 110% East Durham CCL 105%

100% 2001 Base

95%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

36. Since 2001 within the North Durham CCG the Chester-le-Street CCL and the Durham CCL experienced increases in this age group of 42.5%/3,524 people and 43.2%/5,524 people respectively. However, within the DDES CCG, the East Durham CCL has shown a relatively small change (increase of 14.0%) and follows the pattern of slower population growth in this area since 2001. 37. This pattern of increase has continued across all areas since 2011 with an increase of 16.4% in the North Durham CCG and 13.6% in the DDES CCG. Within the CCLs growth since 2011 has been in the range of 15.3% and 17.8% except for the East Durham CCL which grew more slowly at 8.6%. 38. Proportionally the 65+ age group has increased continually since 2001 across the county from 16.6% to 20.4% of the county total population. Both the North Durham CCG and the DDES CCG had percentage point increases in this age group of 4.0 and 3.8 respectively increasing to 19.8% and 21.0% of each areas’ total population. 39. The proportion of this age group in the Chester-le-Street CCL increased by 6.3 percentage points between 2001 and 2017 rising to 21.8% of the areas’ total population and was the largest proportional increase across all six CCL areas. As mentioned above the slower growth in the East Durham CCL has resulted in a proportional increase of only 2.2 percentage points since 2001 increasing to 19.2% of the areas total population in 2017. The table below summarises some of these changes. Table 4: Changes in the 65+ age group between 2001, 2011 and 2017

Population Number change % change Proportion from from 2001 2011 2017 from 2001 from 2011 2001 2011 2001 2017 North Durham CCG 35,850 42,362 49,314 13,464 6,952 37.6% 16.4% 15.8% 19.6% Derwentside CCL 14,748 16,523 19,164 4,416 2,641 29.9% 16.0% 17.3% 20.0% Chester-le-Street CCL 8,301 10,284 11,825 3,524 1,541 42.5% 15.0% 15.5% 21.5% Durham CCL 12,801 15,555 18,325 5,524 2,770 43.2% 17.8% 14.6% 18.1% DDES CCG 45,963 50,652 57,565 11,602 6,913 25.2% 13.6% 17.2% 20.7% Durham Dales CCL 15,552 17,598 20,589 5,037 2,991 32.4% 17.0% 18.1% 22.4% East Durham CCL 16,035 16,836 18,284 2,249 1,448 14.0% 8.6% 17.1% 19.1% Sedgefield CCL 14,376 16,218 18,692 4,316 2,474 30.0% 15.3% 16.5% 20.8% County Durham 81,813 91,108 106,879 25,066 15,771 30.6% 17.3% 16.6% 20.2% North East 419,200 452,600 514,903 95,703 62,303 22.8% 13.8% 16.5% 19.5% England & Wales 8,341,600 9,296,100 10,673,780 2,332,180 1,377,680 28.0% 14.8% 15.9% 18.3% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

Age group: 85+ 40. Within the 85+ age group the percentage increases are more dramatic but are in part due to the smaller numbers involved. Both CCG areas have had increases of over 40% since 2001 in this age group (North Durham CCG 42.6%/1,684 people; DDES CCG 42.4%/1,956 people). 41. This growth is also evident from 2011, although in the DDES CCG the growth has slowed a little. Growth since 2011 was 13.1%/652 people in the North Durham CCG and in the DDES CCG growth was 9.8%/588 people. Figure 5a: % change in the 85+ population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: North Durham CCG and localities.

165%

155% Durham CCL

145% North Durham CCG

135% County Durham

125% Chester-le-Street CCL 115%

Derwentside CCL % % chnage 2001 from base 105% 2001 Base 95%

85%

2013 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017

Figure 5b: % change in the 85+ population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: DDES CCG and localities.

165% Sedgefield CCL

155% DDES CCG 145%

County Durham 135%

125% East Durham CCL

% % chnage 2001 from base 115% Durham Dales CCL

105% 2001 Base

95%

2009 2010 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

42. Within the North Durham CCG the Durham CCL had the largest increase in this age group of 53.9%/742 people since 2001 and in the DDES CCG the Sedgefield CCL increased by 61.8%/799 people. The remaining CCLs had increases of between 31.2% and 41.4% over this period. 43. Proportionally the 85+ age group has increased continually since 2001 across the county from 1.7% to 2.3% of the county total population. All clinical commissioning areas have seen increases of between 0.4 and 0.9 percentage points in this age group since 2001 with the largest increase of 0.7% seen in DDES CCG and of 0.9% in the Sedgefield CCL, increasing the proportion of this age group in this CCG to 2.4% in both areas in 2017. The table below summarises some of these changes. Table 5: Changes in the 85+ age group between 2001, 2011 and 2017

Population Number change % change Proportion from from from from 2001 2011 2017 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2017 North Durham CCG 3,957 4,989 5,641 1,684 652 42.6% 13.1% 1.7% 2.3% Derwentside CCL 1,683 2,152 2,254 571 102 33.9% 4.7% 2.0% 2.4% Chester-le-Street CCL 897 1,058 1,268 371 210 41.4% 19.8% 1.7% 2.3% Durham CCL 1,377 1,779 2,119 742 340 53.9% 19.1% 1.6% 2.1% DDES CCG 4,617 5,985 6,573 1,956 588 42.4% 9.8% 1.7% 2.4% Durham Dales CCL 1,830 2,254 2,401 571 147 31.2% 6.5% 2.1% 2.6% East Durham CCL 1,494 1,831 2,080 586 249 39.2% 13.6% 1.6% 2.2% Sedgefield CCL 1,293 1,900 2,092 799 192 61.8% 10.1% 1.5% 2.4% County Durham 8,574 10,974 12,214 3,640 1,240 42.5% 11.3% 1.7% 2.3% North East 43,000 56,300 63,819 20,819 7,519 48.4% 13.4% 1.7% 2.4% England & Wales 1,017,500 1,268,600 1,433,633 416,133 165,033 40.9% 13.0% 1.9% 2.5% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates

Population change by Clinical Commissioning Area 44. All clinical commissioning areas have seen varying degrees of population growth since 2001, in line with growth across the county. 45. North Durham CCG: . Since 2001 there has been high population growth in this area of 9.9%/22,454 additional people and has mainly been driven by high positive net migration of 22,034 extra people and low natural change (births minus deaths) of 420 people, o Chester-le-Street CCL: Growth of 1.2%/647 people with positive net migration of 687 people and a small negative natural change of 40, o Derwentside CCL: Growth of 10.8%/9,233 people with positive net migration of 9,047 people and a small positive natural change of 186, o Durham CCL: Growth of 14.3%/12,574 people with positive net migration of 12,300 people and a small positive natural change of 274, . Since 2011 this trend has continued with positive natural change of 467 people. Positive net migration was high at 8,518 more people contributing to the 3.7%/8,985 growth in population since 2011, o Chester-le-Street CCL: Growth of 0.4%/210 people with positive net migration of 319 people and a small negative natural change of 109, o Derwentside CCL: Growth of 2.9%/2,683 people with positive net migration of 2,265 people and positive natural change of 418, o Durham CCL: Growth of 6.5%/6,092 people with positive net migration of 5,934 people and a small positive natural change of 158, . In the last year of the estimates this area’s population increased by 1,552 people, all of which came through positive net migration as there was a small negative natural change in this year of 192 more deaths than births, o Chester-le-Street CCL: Reduction in population of -0.2%/-85 people with negative net migration of only 28 people and negative natural change of 57 more deaths than births, o Derwentside CCL: Growth of 0.7%/612 people with positive net migration of 670 people and negative natural change of 58, o Durham CCL: Growth of 1.0%/1,025 people with positive net migration of 1,102 people and a small negative natural change of 77. 46. DDES CCG: . Since 2001 there has been lower population growth in this area of 2.8%/7,519 additional people and has been driven by high positive net migration of 9,142 extra people as there was negative natural change with 1,623 more deaths than births, o Durham Dales CCL: Growth of 6.0%/5,110 people with positive net migration of 7,421 people and there was negative natural change with 2,311 more deaths than births, o East Durham CCL: Growth of 1.1%/1,019 people with positive net migration of 594 people and positive natural change of 425, o Sedgefield CCL: Growth of 1.6%/1,390 people with positive net migration of 1,127 people and positive natural change of 263,

. Since 2011 this trend has continued with negative natural change with 629 more deaths than births. Positive net migration was high at 2,312 more people contributing to the 0.6%/1,683 growth in population since 2011, o Durham Dales CCL: Growth of 1.0%/914 people with positive net migration of 1,859 people and negative natural change with 945 more deaths than births, o East Durham CCL: A fall of 102 people with negative net migration of -524 people and positive natural change of 422 more births than deaths, o Sedgefield CCL: Growth of 1.0%/871 people with positive net migration of 977 people and negative natural change with 106 more deaths than births, . In the last year of the estimates this area’s population fell by 33 people, as positive net migration of 330 people was countered by negative natural change in this year of 363 more deaths than births, o Durham Dales CCL: A decrease of 0.2%/147 people with positive net migration of 105 people and negative natural change with 252 more deaths than births, o East Durham CCL: A decrease of only 120 people with negative net migration of 66 people and negative natural change of 54 more births than deaths, o Sedgefield CCL: Growth of 0.3%/234 people with positive net migration of 291 people and negative natural change with 57 more deaths than births. 47. The following charts and tables provide more detail. Figure 6a: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2001 to 2017 by Clinical Commissioning Locality (CCL)

County Durham Net Durham CCL Natural Derwentside CCL Change Durham Dales CCL Migration Sedgefield CCL East Durham CCL

Chester-le-Street CCL

0

5,000

-5,000

10,000 20,000 30,000

25,000 35,000 15,000 Figure 6b: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2011 to 2017 by Clinical Commissioning Locality (CCL)

County Durham Net Durham CCL Natural Derwentside CCL Change Durham Dales CCL Migration Sedgefield CCL Chester-le-Street CCL

East Durham CCL

2,000 6,000

2,000 6,000

-2,000

-2,000 10,000 10,000

Figure 6c: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2015 to 2017 by Clinical Commissioning Locality (CCL)

County Durham Net Durham CCL Natural Derwentside CCL Change Sedgefield CCL Migration Durham Dales CCL East Durham CCL

Chester-le-Street CCL

0

0

500

400 800

-500

-400

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

1,200 1,600 -1,000 Table 6a: Components of population change 2001 to 2017 by clinical commissioning areas (CCGs/CCLs) Population change 2001 to 2017 % Net Natural Population 2001 2017 Births Deaths Migration* change Change Change North Durham CCG 226,647 249,101 9.9% 40,665 40,245 420 22,034 22,454 Derwentside CCL 85,170 94,403 10.8% 17,177 16,991 186 9,047 9,233 Chester-le-Street CCL 53,679 54,326 1.2% 9,212 9,252 -40 687 647 Durham CCL 87,798 100,372 14.3% 14,276 14,002 274 12,300 12,574 DDES CCG 267,042 274,561 2.8% 50,486 52,109 -1,623 9,142 7,519 Durham Dales CCL 85,821 90,931 6.0% 15,245 17,556 -2,311 7,421 5,110 East Durham CCL 93,990 95,009 1.1% 18,573 18,148 425 594 1,019 Sedgefield CCL 87,231 88,621 1.6% 16,668 16,405 263 1,127 1,390 County Durham 493,689 523,662 6.1% 91,151 92,354 -1,203 31,176 29,973 Source: NOMIS; ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates; ONS registered deaths and live births 2001 to 2017.

Table 6b: Components of population change 2011 to 2017 by clinical commissioning areas (CCGs/CCLs) Population change 2011 to 2017 % Net Natural Population 2011 2017 Births Deaths Migration* change Change Change North Durham CCG 240,116 249,101 3.7% 17,274 16,807 467 8,518 8,985 Derwentside CCL 91,720 94,403 2.9% 7,455 7,037 418 2,265 2,683 Chester-le-Street CCL 54,116 54,326 0.4% 3,663 3,772 -109 319 210 Durham CCL 94,280 100,372 6.5% 6,156 5,998 158 5,934 6,092 DDES CCG 272,878 274,561 0.6% 20,729 21,358 -629 2,312 1,683 Durham Dales CCL 90,017 90,931 1.0% 6,159 7,104 -945 1,859 914 East Durham CCL 95,111 95,009 -0.1% 7,871 7,449 422 -524 -102 Sedgefield CCL 87,750 88,621 1.0% 6,699 6,805 -106 977 871 County Durham 512,994 523,662 2.1% 38,003 38,165 -162 10,830 10,668 Source: NOMIS; ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates; ONS registered deaths and live births 2001 to 2017.

Table 6c: Components of population change 2016 to 2017 by clinical commissioning areas (CCGs/CCLs)

Population change 2015 to 2017 % Net Natural Population 2016 2017 Births Deaths Migration* change Change Change North Durham CCG 247,549 249,101 0.6% 2,275 2,467 -192 1,744 1,552 Derwentside CCL 93,791 94,403 0.7% 959 1,017 -58 670 612 Chester-le-Street CCL 54,411 54,326 -0.2% 505 562 -57 -28 -85 Durham CCL 99,347 100,372 1.0% 811 888 -77 1,102 1,025 DDES CCG 274,594 274,561 -0.0% 2,758 3,121 -363 330 -33 Durham Dales CCL 91,078 90,931 -0.2% 819 1,071 -252 105 -147 East Durham CCL 95,129 95,009 -0.1% 1,032 1,086 -54 -66 -120 Sedgefield CCL 88,387 88,621 0.3% 907 964 -57 291 234 County Durham 522,143 523,662 0.3% 5,033 5,588 -555 2,074 1,519 Source: NOMIS; ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates; ONS registered deaths and live births 2001 to 2017.

How does this topic link to our strategies and plans? The information in this factsheet is used to inform and support the strategies and plans published on the County Durham Partnership website. Other links: www.durhaminsight.info Durham Insight: Population and Deprivation Sub-county profiles (under ‘Area Reports’) Author: Research and Public Health Intelligence Team Approver: Research and Public Health Intelligence Team Published: November 2018 Review: November 2019 Data sources: http://www.nomisweb.co.uk/query/select/getdatasetbytheme.asp?theme=32 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimate s

Appendix 1

Table 1: Population change by clinical commissioning area - 2001 to 2017 Chester- Durham East North Derwentside le- Durham Sedgefield County DDES Dales Durham Durham CCL Street CCL CCL Durham CCG CCL CCL CCG CCL 2001 85,170 53,679 87,798 85,821 93,990 87,231 493,689 226,647 267,042 2002 85,571 53,875 87,432 85,939 93,466 87,255 493,538 226,878 266,660 2003 86,201 53,694 86,901 86,289 93,184 87,662 493,931 226,796 267,135 2004 86,750 53,677 86,476 86,806 93,145 88,293 495,147 226,903 268,244 2005 87,316 53,623 86,797 87,420 93,567 88,495 497,218 227,736 269,482 2006 87,702 53,833 88,076 87,694 93,785 88,258 499,348 229,611 269,737 2007 88,700 53,811 89,596 88,383 94,235 88,235 502,960 232,107 270,853 2008 89,620 53,715 90,560 88,977 94,755 87,990 505,617 233,895 271,722 2009 90,101 53,993 90,907 89,374 95,117 87,819 507,311 235,001 272,310 2010 90,920 54,015 93,095 89,852 95,054 87,692 510,628 238,030 272,598 2011 91,720 54,116 94,280 90,017 95,111 87,750 512,994 240,116 272,878 2012 92,043 54,308 94,954 90,068 95,123 87,852 514,348 241,305 273,043 2013 92,146 54,228 96,680 90,213 95,153 87,537 515,957 243,054 272,903 2014 92,690 54,434 97,237 90,623 95,075 87,714 517,773 244,361 273,412 2015 93,300 54,451 97,993 90,822 95,090 88,039 519,695 245,744 273,951 2016 93,791 54,411 99,347 91,078 95,129 88,387 522,143 247,549 274,594 2017 94,403 54,326 100,372 90,931 95,009 88,621 523,662 249,101 274,561 Source: NOMIS; ONS Mid-year Population Estimates

Appendix 2 Long Term (2001 to 2017) Local Area Population Growth at the MSOA level 1. At a more local level, just over two thirds (46) of the 66 MSOAs covering the county experienced an increase in overall population between 2001 and 2017. 2. Less than half of MSOAs (30) in the county had positive natural change during this period while 46 had positive net migration. 3. The Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross area (MSOA E02004315) had the highest increase in population of 3,706 additional people between 2001 and 2017, an increase of 41.1% from 2001. This was through the combination of a small positive natural change figure of 236 and high positive migration of people into the area of 3,470. 4. Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the second highest percentage increase of 36.7%, (an increase of 3,723 people). This was due to high positive migration into the area of 4,674 more people moving into the area as there was high negative natural change over this period with 951 more deaths than births. These changes are in part due to the expansion of Durham University and development of student accommodation in these areas. 5. The largest decreases in population were in the Horden area (MSOA E02004327) with a fall of 871 people and the Acre Rigg & Central area (MSOA E02004328) which fell by 676 people during this period, falls of 12.9% and 8.4% respectively. 6. The decrease in Horden was due to both negative natural change (236 more deaths than births) and high outward migration (635 more people moving out of the area than in), while the decrease in Acre Rigg & Peterlee Central was due to high levels of net outward migration from the area (1,148 more people moving out of the area than in) while natural change added an additional 472 to its population. 7. The area of Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the highest fall in natural change between 2001 and 2017 with 951 more deaths than births. However, this fall was out-weighed by having the largest positive net migration figure of 4,674 out of all 66 MSOAs. 8. The area of Central (MSOA E02004342) had the highest growth in natural change of 819 more births than deaths. Details of these components of change by MSOA are given below.

Map 1: % change in total population since 2001 by MSOA

Figure 1: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2001 to 2017 by MSOA

Durham City Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross Leadgate North and East Delves and Leadgate South St Helens Auckland and Consett West and Castleside Murton South and Byers Green and Craghead and South Stanley North and Seaton Gilesgate Moor Crook South and Willington North Crook North Howden-le-Wear and… Cassop and and South Church Stanley North and Kip Hill Shotton Colliery and Pity Me and Wingate Bowburn and Medomsley and Shotley and Sedgefield and Waldridge Brasside and Newton Hall and and Sherburn and Esh Winning and Ushaw Moor West Net Natural Burnopfield Dipton North and Tantobie Chester-le-Street West and Pelton Fell Change Dawdon and Seaham Harbour Annfield Plain North and Dipton South Migration Annfield Plain South and South Moor Stanhope and Midridge and Woodham Village Brandon Pelton and Grange Villa Chester-le-Street North Lanchester Chilton and Station Thornley Deaf Hill and Newton Aycliffe Central Spennymoor-Green Lane and Dean… Hamsterley and and Middleton-in-Teesdale Coundon and Willington South Langley Park and Henknowle and Woodhouse Close and Trimdons Aycliffe Village Newton Aycliffe South and Chester-le-Street South Newton Aycliffe East North Spennymoor North and Tudhoe Dalton-le-Dale and Deneside Beamish Ouston and Urpeth Easington Colliery South and Eden Hill Belmont and Carville and Ferryhill Cockton Hill and Dene Passfield and Shotton Blackhalls Acre Rigg and Peterlee Central

Horden

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4,000 1,000 2,000 3,000 5,000 6,000

-2,000 -1,000 -1,000 -2,000

Medium Term (2011 to 2017) Local Area Population Growth at the MSOA level 9. At a more local level, just under two thirds (41) of the 66 MSOAs covering the county experienced an increase in overall population between 2011 and 2017. 10. Around half of MSOAs (32) in the county had positive natural change during this period while 44 had positive net migration. 11. The Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross area (MSOA E02004315) had the highest increase in population of 1,833 additional people between 2011 and 2017, an increase of 18.0% from 2011. This was through the combination of a small positive natural change figure of 75 and high positive migration into the area of 1,758 more people moving into the area than leaving. 12. Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the second highest percentage increase of 13.7%, (an increase of 1,666 people). This was due to high positive migration into the area of 2,026 more people moving into the area as there was negative natural change over this period with 360 more deaths than births. These changes are in part due to the continuing expansion of Durham University and development of student accommodation in these areas. 13. The largest decreases in population were in the Horden area (MSOA E02004342) with a fall of 500 people and Passfield and Shotton area (MSOA E02004329) which fell by 253 people during this period, falls of 7.8% and 3.7% respectively. 14. The decrease in Horden was due to both negative natural change (133 more deaths than births) and high outward migration (367 more people moving out of the area than in), while the decrease in Passfield and Shotton was also due to net outward migration from the area (173 more people moving out of the area than in) and negative natural change with 80 more deaths than births during this period. 15. The Acre Rigg & Peterlee Central (MSOA E02004328) area, which had the second highest fall in population between 2001 and 2017 (see above), showed no change between 2011 and 2017 with positive natural change of 178 more births than deaths and a net outward migration figure of 178 more people moving out of the area than in. 16. The area of Barnard Castle and Startforth (MSOA E02004347) had the highest fall in natural change between 2011 and 2017 with 411 more deaths than births. However, this fall was balanced out with a positive net migration figure of 554. 17. The area of Durham City (MSOA E02004314) had the highest positive net migration of 2,026 more people moving into the area while Newton Aycliffe Central (MSOA E02004328) had the highest net outward migration figure of 538 more people leaving the area. Details of these components of change by MSOA are given below.

Map 2: % change in total population since 2011 by MSOA

Figure 2: Overall population change (left) and components of change (right) 2011 to 2017 by MSOA

Langley Moor and Nevilles Cross Durham City Consett West and Castleside Byers Green and Spennymoor Gilesgate Moor Craghead and South Stanley Bowburn and Shincliffe Spennymoor-Green Lane and Dean… Shotton Colliery Brasside and Newton Hall Cassop and Coxhoe Delves and Leadgate South Esh Winning and Ushaw Moor West St Helens Auckland and West Auckland Framwellgate Moor and Pity Me Pelton and Grange Villa Chester-le-Street West and Pelton Fell Medomsley and Shotley Sacriston and Waldridge Chilton and Ferryhill Station Dawdon and Seaham Harbour Murton South and South Hetton Bishop Auckland and South Church Coundon and Willington South Annfield Plain South and South Moor Barnard Castle and Startforth Stanley North and Kip Hill Crook South and Willington North Burnopfield Dipton North and Tantobie Annfield Plain North and Dipton South Lanchester Aycliffe Village Newton Aycliffe South Crook North Howden-le-Wear and… Sherburn and West Rainton Langley Park Cornsay and Satley Net Natural Thornley Deaf Hill and Wheatley HIll Change Midridge and Woodham Village Henknowle and Woodhouse Close Bearpark and Witton Gilbert Migration Seaham North and Seaton Hutton Henry and Wingate Acre Rigg and Peterlee Central Stanhope and Wolsingham Dalton-le-Dale and Deneside Bishop Middleham and Sedgefield Newton Aycliffe East Cockton Hill and Etherley Dene Hamsterley and Staindrop Fishburn and Trimdons Shildon Brandon Easington Colliery North Bowes and Middleton-in-Teesdale Chester-le-Street South Blackhalls Chester-le-Street North Beamish Ouston and Urpeth Cornforth and Ferryhill Belmont and Carville Leadgate North and Consett East Bournmoor and Great Lumley Easington Colliery South and Eden Hill Spennymoor North and Tudhoe Newton Aycliffe Central Passfield and Shotton

Horden

0

0

500

500

-500

-500

1,000 1,500 2,000

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

-1,000

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