Sub-county Population in County Durham Ref: C1 2017 ONS Mid-year Population estimates for Clinical Commissioning Localities and Groups Purpose of this brief 1. This briefing note outlines the latest release of national population estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for small areas. These estimates represent the resident population as of 30th June 2017 and have been released down to a LSOA level and by single year of age. This is a follow-up to an earlier report detailing county level trends published in July 2018 on the Population section of the Durham Insight website. 2. For the purpose of this report these figures have then been recast to the six Clinical Commissioning Localities (CCLs) and the two Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) they reside in to show long term sub-county trends. 3. Supplementary reports for Strategic Partnership areas and Area Action Partnership areas are also available on the Population section of the Durham Insight website. 4. Appendix 1 contains a detailed table of population change by year since 2001 by CCL and CCG area. 5. Appendix 2 contains details of population change by MSOA and a map showing the relationship between the CCL/CCG areas and MSOA boundaries covering the long term period of 2001 to 2017 and he short term period of 2011 to 2017. Map 1: Clinical Commissioning areas covering County Durham County Council Key Messages 6. At a county level local population growth since 2001 has been driven by high positive net migration (+31,200 people) while natural change (births minus deaths) was negative (-1,200 people) during this period. 7. Over the shorter term since 2011 there was still high positive net migration (+10,800 people) along with negative natural change (-160 more births than deaths). 8. Between 2016 and 2017 there was high positive net migration again with an additional 2,100 people moving into the county while natural change remained negative with 550 more deaths than births. This has seen the county’s population increase by 0.3%/1,519 people. 9. Nearly three quarters (74.9%) of the population growth in the county has been in the North Durham CCG which increased by 9.9%, growth was particularly high within the Derwentside CCL and Durham CCL which grew by 10.8% and 14.3% respectively. 10. All six CCL areas have seen an increase in population between 2001 and 2017 with the largest growth in the Durham CCL (14.3%) area. Growth in has been relatively low in the Chester-le- Street CCL (1.2%), East Durham CCL (1.1%) and the Sedgefield CCL (1.6%) due to low positive net migration (+687, +594 and +1,127 more people entering the area than moving out of the areas). The Durham Dales CCL grew by 6.0% due high positive net migration (+7,421 people moving into the area) despite having high negative natural change (2,311 more deaths than births). 11. The 0 to 15 age group has fallen in the DDES CCG area by 8.4% since 2001 with the largest fall in the East Durham CCL of 10.6%. The North Durham CCG increased slightly by 0.2% over the same period. 12. However, since 2011 the North Durham CCG has seen its 0 to 15 population increase by over 1,600 children, an increase of 4.1%, while the DDES CCG increased slightly by 0.2%. 13. Both CCGs have seen increases in the working age population (aged 16 to 64) since 2001, though there is evidence of a recent decline since 2011. The North Durham CCG increased by 6.0%/8,921 people while across DDES CCG growth was lower at 0.2%/398 more people. Within the North Durham CCG the largest growth was in the Durham CCL with an increase of 10.8% (6,533 more people) while this group fell by 4.6% (1,599 fewer people) in the Chester-le-Street CCL. 14. Since 2011 growth in the working age group in the North Durham CCG has slowed showing only a 0.3% increase in the last six years with this group decreasing by 3.1% in the DDES CGG over the same period. Within the localities only the Durham CCL saw any growth in this group with an extra 3.5%/2,305 people. 15. All six localities have seen large increases, of between 14.0% (East Durham CCL 14.0%) and 43.0% (Chester-le-Street CCL 42.5%, Durham CCL 43.2%) in the number of older people (aged 65 and over). The largest increase has been in the North Durham CCG and its localities with an increase of 37.6% overall compared to 25.2% in the DDES CCG. 16. Growth in the 65+ age group since 2011 across both CCGs has been fairly even with growth of 16.4%/6,952 people in the North Durham CCG and 13.6%/6,913 people in the DDES CCG. A similar pattern is seen in the CCLs except for the East Durham CCL which only had growth of 8.6% in this period. 17. All areas have seen large increases in the number of people aged 85 and over since 2001 with increases of 42.6% in the North Durham CCG and 42.4% in the DDES CCG. Across the localities growth ranges from 31.2% increase in the Durham Dales CCL up to 61.8% increase in the Sedgefield CCL. Population change by Clinical Commissioning Area Age group: Overall 18. Both CCG areas and their under lying CCL areas have seen varying degrees of population growth since 2001, in line with growth across the county as illustrated below. Unlike other sub-county geographies mentioned above, the county’s population is more evenly distributed across the CCLs with five areas having a population within the range 88,600 to 100,300, except for the Chester-le- Street CCL which has a population of just over 54,300. Figure 1a: % change in total population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: North Durham CCG and localities. 115% Durham CCL Derwentside CCL 110% North Durham CCG County Durham 105% Chester-le-Street CCL % chnage % chnage from 2001 base 100% 2001 Base 95% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Figure 1b: % change in total population since 2001 by clinical commissioning area: DDES CCG and localities. 115% 110% Durham Dales CCL 105% County Durham DDES CCG Sedgefield CCL East Durham CCL % chnage % chnage from 2001 base 100% 2001 Base 95% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 19. The majority of growth has been in the North Durham CCG area with an increase of 9.9%/22,454 people while the population in the DDES CCG grew by 2.8%/7,519 people. 20. Since 2011 there has been continued growth, however, while the North Durham CCG’s population grew by 3.7%/8,985 people there was only growth of 0.6%/1,683 people in the DDES CCG. The table below summarises some of these changes. Table 1: Changes in total population between 2001, 2011 and 2017 Population Number change % change from from 2001 2011 2017 from 2001 from 2011 2001 2011 North Durham CCG 226,647 240,116 249,101 22,454 8,985 9.9% 3.7% Derwentside CCL 85,170 91,720 94,403 9,233 2,683 10.8% 2.9% Chester-le-Street CCL 53,679 54,116 54,326 647 210 1.2% 0.4% Durham CCL 87,798 94,280 100,372 12,574 6,092 14.3% 6.5% DDES CCG 267,042 272,878 274,561 7,519 1,683 2.8% 0.6% Durham Dales CCL 85,821 90,017 90,931 5,110 914 6.0% 1.0% East Durham CCL 93,990 95,111 95,009 1,019 -102 1.1% -0.1% Sedgefield CCL 87,231 87,750 88,621 1,390 871 1.6% 1.0% County Durham 493,689 512,994 523,662 29,973 10,668 6.1% 2.1% North East 2,540,100 2,596,400 2,644,727 104,627 48,327 4.1% 1.9% England & Wales 52,360,000 56,170,900 58,744,595 6,384,595 2,573,695 12.2% 4.6% Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year estimates 21. Within the North Durham CCG the Durham CCL had the largest increase in population of 14.3%/12,574 people with the Derwentside CCL a close second with population growth of 10.8%/9,233 people. The Chester-le-Street CCL has shown relatively little growth with only 1.2%/647 people since 2001. 22. This trend is also evident over the short term since 2011 with growth of 6.5%/6,092 people in the Durham CCL, growth of 2.9%/2,683 people in the Derwentside CCL and growth in the Chester-le- Street CCL only 0.4%/210 people, with this being lower than the growth in this area between 2001 and 2017 (0.5%/295 people). 23. Within the DDES CCG the Durham Dales CCL had the largest increase in population of 6.0% (5,110 people) with the East Durham CCL and the Sedgefield CCL having shown relatively little growth with only 1.1%/1,109 people and 1.6%/1,390 people respectively since 2001. 24. This trend is also evident over the short term since 2011 with growth of 1.0%/914 people in the Durham Dales CCL, a small decrease in the East Durham CCL and growth of 1.0%/871 people in the Sedgefield CCL.