A Feasibility Study to determine the extent to which there is a need for a Category 2A school or schools in North Powys Cefin Campbell Alun Charles Geraint Roberts September 2015 1 A Feasibility Study to determine the extent to which there is a need for a Category 2A school or schools in North Powys CONTENTS 1. Introduction and Background to the Project 3 2. Why Change is Needed 4 2.1 Financial Challenges 4 2.2 The Transformation Agenda 5 2.3 Changes to the Curriculum 6 2.4 Pupil Numbers and the Small Size of North Powys Secondary Schools 7 2.5 The need to provide more robust Linguistic Continuity for 9 Welsh-medium Pupils 3. The Current Position 13 3.1 Current Secondary Provision in North Powys 13 3.2 Analysis of Welsh-medium Provision in North Powys 21 4. An evaluation of the need for a Category 2A school or schools in Powys 28 4.1 Context – the Welsh Language in North Powys 28 4.2 Advantages and Disadvantages of different models of delivering 29 Welsh-medium education 4.3 The Case for Establishing Category 2A Provision in North Powys 35 5. Conclusion and Recommendations 48 Appendix A – Summary of Welsh Language Categories for Secondary 51 Schools Appendix B – Subject Provision in North Powys Secondary Schools 52 Appendix C – Sixth Form Subjects taught in North Powys Schools 2014/15 60 Appendix D – The Welsh Language in North Powys 62 2 1. Introduction and Background to the Project Powys County Council has recently commenced a Secondary School Reorganisation Programme which intends to transform the secondary and post-16 sector across the county. The main aims of the programme are: • Reconfiguration of secondary and post-16 education to create a sustainable infrastructure of schools and sixth forms across Powys, enabling a broader range of subjects to be provided from each school site, whilst minimising the need for inter-school travel and transport; • Reconfiguration of Welsh-medium education with the aim of establishing at least one Welsh-medium secondary school in the county, and the consolidation of other Welsh-medium streams into larger units. This will enable schools to provide the appropriate curriculum offer and progression routes for Welsh-medium learners. As part of the reorganisation programme, the Council has commissioned Sbectrwm Consultancy to develop a comprehensive business case and to make recommendations about the future configuration of secondary schools in North Powys, taking account of Welsh-medium education. The tender specification provided by the local authority set out two aims in relation to the reconfiguration of secondary and post-16 education in North Powys, which are as follows:- Aim 1 : To determine the extent to which there is a need for a Welsh-medium Category 2A secondary school or schools in North Powys Aim 2 : To make recommendations about the future configuration of secondary education in North Powys, taking account of the outcome of Aim 1. This report will focus on Aim 1 only. 3 2. Why Change is Needed 2.1 Financial Challenges Education in Wales is facing severe financial challenges as a result of efficiencies being made in Westminster passed on by Welsh Government. At the same time, expectations and pressures on schools to improve standards have never been higher. Demographic changes also mean that pupil numbers are decreasing which has an impact on the distribution of funds available to individual schools. Powys County Council in 2014-15 received a funding settlement of £182 million. This represented a 4.6% decrease which is equivalent to a funding drop of £8.712 million. In light of these challenges the Council recently appointed Price Waterhouse Coopers (PWC) to undertake a financial viability study of their secondary schools. The report which was published in June 2014 notes that all 13 secondary schools in Powys are facing serious financial pressures that in most cases are leading them into deficit positions. With increased external pressures, schools are reaching a point where their options are extremely limited. With all schools forecasted to have deteriorating financial positions over the next few years the PWC report warns that - ‘even a concerted, joint effort of cost management may not be enough to avoid the requirement to examine structural changes to the education provision across the county.’ The argument becomes even stronger when considered against the number of spare/surplus places the majority of schools are carrying. The report also cautions against the very real risk that schools may become finance rather than curriculum led in the future. Of the six secondary schools in North Powys, five are forecasted to have considerable deficits by 2017. Added to the overall reduction in the funding settlement, the change in the way post- 16 education is funded has also had a negative impact on school budgets. The new formula is based on a number of criteria including - the nature of provision, the language of learning, the number of students registered and rurality and deprivation factors. For many schools this has resulted in a reduction in the overall post-16 allocation. This is particularly true for smaller secondary schools and smaller sixth forms where formerly the local authority had built in ways of protecting the funding. These pressures and variables are reflected in the allocation of resources to different schools. This is best reflected in the average budget share per pupil. During the current financial year 2014-15, the average budget share per pupil in secondary schools in North Powys varies from £3,827 per pupil to £4,469 per pupil which is a significant difference of £642 per pupil. This data excludes Ysgol Bro Hyddgen which is funded as a 4-18 school. 4 In order to ensure affordability, sustainability and appropriate leadership capacity in light of the PWC report on the financial viability of schools and general budgetary constraints, Powys County Council’s Cabinet in its report of March 2015 approved in principle that the minimum size of secondary schools in Powys should be at least 600 (11–16 age) and the number of pupils in the sixth form should be no lower than 150. The rationale for having schools with a minimum number of 600 pupils across Key Stages 3 and 4 is that the average year group sizes would be at least 120 children split into 4 teaching groups of 30, or 5 teaching groups of 24, thus ensuring financial viability. It was also agreed that in dual-stream schools a viable Welsh- medium stream and English-medium stream should have a minimum of 2 classes/groups per year cohort. With this in mind, it is worth noting that pupil numbers in Powys have been decreasing for the past few years and this trend is expected to continue in some schools for the foreseeable future. Projections indicate that the four dual-stream schools in North Powys will fall below the Council’s aspiration that the minimum size of a secondary school (years 7–11) should be 600 pupils. It is against this backdrop of a diminishing financial base that the local authority is compelled to give serious consideration to rationalising secondary school provision in the north of the county. 2.2 The Transformation Agenda Transforming Education and Training Provision for Wales published in September 2008 outlines the Welsh Government’s intention to work with providers and stakeholders to comprehensively address provider structure, function and networking potential to help increase the efficiency, effectiveness and responsiveness of education and training for all learners beyond the age of 16 by transforming ways in which education and training is delivered. Local authorities have been challenged to meet the requirements of the Learning and Skills Measure (2009) to provide a full choice of academic, vocational and skill- based programmes and pathways for post-16 learners and that learning programmes are delivered in a coherent manner. Many local authorities are under pressure therefore to co-ordinate the transformation of 14–19 education together with re-organising secondary schools. Powys in that sense is no different to many other education authorities in Wales. Significant change is already taking place across Powys under the transformation banner and discussions that have been held with Headteachers suggest that North Powys schools expect change to happen and are prepared for the challenge. 5 The very challenging transformation agenda requires new ways of working and current evidence produced for this report shows that the status quo will not deliver the shared goal of building a highly-educated and highly-skilled workforce and increase employment opportunities in Wales. It is widely accepted that most schools do not have the critical mass to deliver 14–19 change on their own. The original transformation document emphasised that there are too many sixth forms in Wales, too many secondary schools in some areas, small sixth form classes in some schools and surplus 11–16 places in others that result in high staffing and building costs. The transformation agenda aims to provide learners with the best education possible for the 21st century and according to Welsh Government it is the reason why change is inevitable in North Powys. 2.3 Changes to the Curriculum Recent changes to the curriculum coupled with the fact that schools are expected to provide a greater choice of courses for pupils in the 14–19 age range places increased pressure on the current education structure. This has become increasingly apparent due to the raft of changes that have taken place over the last fifteen years or so since the introduction of the Year 12 Advanced Supplementary (AS) courses and examinations and the Advanced Level (A2) courses. As a result many schools with smaller sixth forms have been forced to allocate more resources to the 16–19 age group as the teaching of combined Year 12 and Year 13 groups becomes ever more difficult, if not impossible.