Feasibility Study North Powys

A Feasibility Study to determine the extent to which there is a need for a Category 2A school or schools in North Powys

Cefin Campbell Alun Charles Geraint Roberts

September 2015

A Feasibility Study to determine the extent to which there is a need for a Category 2A school or schools in North Powys

CONTENTS

1. Introduction and Background to the Project 3

2. Why Change is Needed 4

2.1 Financial Challenges 4 2.2 The Transformation Agenda 5 2.3 Changes to the Curriculum 6 2.4 Pupil Numbers and the Small Size of North Powys Secondary Schools 7 2.5 The need to provide more robust Linguistic Continuity for 9 Welsh-medium Pupils

3. The Current Position 13

3.1 Current Secondary Provision in North Powys 13 3.2 Analysis of Welsh-medium Provision in North Powys 21

4. An evaluation of the need for a Category 2A school or schools in Powys 28

4.1 Context – the Welsh Language in North Powys 28 4.2 Advantages and Disadvantages of different models of delivering 29 Welsh-medium education 4.3 The Case for Establishing Category 2A Provision in North Powys 35

5. Conclusion and Recommendations 48

Appendix A – Summary of Welsh Language Categories for Secondary 51 Schools

Appendix B – Subject Provision in North Powys Secondary Schools 52

Appendix C – Sixth Form Subjects taught in North Powys Schools 2014/15 60

Appendix D – The Welsh Language in North Powys 62

1. Introduction and Background to the Project

Powys County Council has recently commenced a Secondary School Reorganisation Programme which intends to transform the secondary and post-16 sector across the county. The main aims of the programme are:

• Reconfiguration of secondary and post-16 education to create a sustainable infrastructure of schools and sixth forms across Powys, enabling a broader range of subjects to be provided from each school site, whilst minimising the need for inter-school travel and transport; • Reconfiguration of Welsh-medium education with the aim of establishing at least one Welsh-medium secondary school in the county, and the consolidation of other Welsh-medium streams into larger units. This will enable schools to provide the appropriate curriculum offer and progression routes for Welsh-medium learners.

As part of the reorganisation programme, the Council has commissioned Sbectrwm Consultancy to develop a comprehensive business case and to make recommendations about the future configuration of secondary schools in North Powys, taking account of Welsh-medium education.

The tender specification provided by the local authority set out two aims in relation to the reconfiguration of secondary and post-16 education in North Powys, which are as follows:-

Aim 1 : To determine the extent to which there is a need for a Welsh-medium Category 2A secondary school or schools in North Powys

Aim 2 : To make recommendations about the future configuration of secondary education in North Powys, taking account of the outcome of Aim 1.

This report will focus on Aim 1 only.

2. Why Change is Needed

2.1 Financial Challenges

Education in Wales is facing severe financial challenges as a result of efficiencies being made in Westminster passed on by Welsh Government. At the same time, expectations and pressures on schools to improve standards have never been higher. Demographic changes also mean that pupil numbers are decreasing which has an impact on the distribution of funds available to individual schools.

Powys County Council in 2014-15 received a funding settlement of £182 million. This represented a 4.6% decrease which is equivalent to a funding drop of £8.712 million. In light of these challenges the Council recently appointed Price Waterhouse Coopers (PWC) to undertake a financial viability study of their secondary schools.

The report which was published in June 2014 notes that all 13 secondary schools in Powys are facing serious financial pressures that in most cases are leading them into deficit positions. With increased external pressures, schools are reaching a point where their options are extremely limited. With all schools forecasted to have deteriorating financial positions over the next few years the PWC report warns that - ‘even a concerted, joint effort of cost management may not be enough to avoid the requirement to examine structural changes to the education provision across the county.’ The argument becomes even stronger when considered against the number of spare/surplus places the majority of schools are carrying. The report also cautions against the very real risk that schools may become finance rather than curriculum led in the future. Of the six secondary schools in North Powys, five are forecasted to have considerable deficits by 2017.

Added to the overall reduction in the funding settlement, the change in the way post- 16 education is funded has also had a negative impact on school budgets. The new formula is based on a number of criteria including - the nature of provision, the language of learning, the number of students registered and rurality and deprivation factors. For many schools this has resulted in a reduction in the overall post-16 allocation. This is particularly true for smaller secondary schools and smaller sixth forms where formerly the local authority had built in ways of protecting the funding. These pressures and variables are reflected in the allocation of resources to different schools. This is best reflected in the average budget share per pupil. During the current financial year 2014-15, the average budget share per pupil in secondary schools in North Powys varies from £3,827 per pupil to £4,469 per pupil which is a significant difference of £642 per pupil. This data excludes Ysgol Bro Hyddgen which is funded as a 4-18 school.

In order to ensure affordability, sustainability and appropriate leadership capacity in light of the PWC report on the financial viability of schools and general budgetary constraints, Powys County Council’s Cabinet in its report of March 2015 approved in principle that the minimum size of secondary schools in Powys should be at least 600 (11–16 age) and the number of pupils in the sixth form should be no lower than 150. The rationale for having schools with a minimum number of 600 pupils across Key Stages 3 and 4 is that the average year group sizes would be at least 120 children split into 4 teaching groups of 30, or 5 teaching groups of 24, thus ensuring financial viability. It was also agreed that in dual-stream schools a viable Welsh- medium stream and English-medium stream should have a minimum of 2 classes/groups per year cohort.

With this in mind, it is worth noting that pupil numbers in Powys have been decreasing for the past few years and this trend is expected to continue in some schools for the foreseeable future. Projections indicate that the four dual-stream schools in North Powys will fall below the Council’s aspiration that the minimum size of a secondary school (years 7–11) should be 600 pupils.

It is against this backdrop of a diminishing financial base that the local authority is compelled to give serious consideration to rationalising secondary school provision in the north of the county.

2.2 The Transformation Agenda

Transforming Education and Training Provision for Wales published in September 2008 outlines the Welsh Government’s intention to work with providers and stakeholders to comprehensively address provider structure, function and networking potential to help increase the efficiency, effectiveness and responsiveness of education and training for all learners beyond the age of 16 by transforming ways in which education and training is delivered.

Local authorities have been challenged to meet the requirements of the Learning and Skills Measure (2009) to provide a full choice of academic, vocational and skill- based programmes and pathways for post-16 learners and that learning programmes are delivered in a coherent manner.

Many local authorities are under pressure therefore to co-ordinate the transformation of 14–19 education together with re-organising secondary schools. Powys in that sense is no different to many other education authorities in Wales. Significant change is already taking place across Powys under the transformation banner and discussions that have been held with Headteachers suggest that North Powys schools expect change to happen and are prepared for the challenge.

The very challenging transformation agenda requires new ways of working and current evidence produced for this report shows that the status quo will not deliver the shared goal of building a highly-educated and highly-skilled workforce and increase employment opportunities in Wales.

It is widely accepted that most schools do not have the critical mass to deliver 14–19 change on their own. The original transformation document emphasised that there are too many sixth forms in Wales, too many secondary schools in some areas, small sixth form classes in some schools and surplus 11–16 places in others that result in high staffing and building costs. The transformation agenda aims to provide learners with the best education possible for the 21st century and according to Welsh Government it is the reason why change is inevitable in North Powys.

2.3 Changes to the Curriculum

Recent changes to the curriculum coupled with the fact that schools are expected to provide a greater choice of courses for pupils in the 14–19 age range places increased pressure on the current education structure. This has become increasingly apparent due to the raft of changes that have taken place over the last fifteen years or so since the introduction of the Year 12 Advanced Supplementary (AS) courses and examinations and the Advanced Level (A2) courses. As a result many schools with smaller sixth forms have been forced to allocate more resources to the 16–19 age group as the teaching of combined Year 12 and Year 13 groups becomes ever more difficult, if not impossible. Over the past eight years the introduction of the Welsh Baccalaureate Qualification in most schools has also increased the pressure on resources, especially in smaller schools.

The more recent curricular changes in the main have been implemented in response to the Learning Pathways 14–19 initiative and the Learning and Skills (Wales) Measure, 2009 . The leaders of Powys secondary schools have responded positively to these curricular initiatives and have collaborated well with each other and college providers to offer new courses for young learners. However, it is becoming increasingly apparent that historical and current solutions are not sustainable at a time when learners expect and are entitled to a greater choice of provision at the 14 –19 phase.

The Learning and Skills Measure requires a school and its cluster of schools to provide a basic minimum of subject choice for its learners. An offer of at least 25 Level 2 (GCSE) courses, of which 3 of these should be vocational, should be made available to each 14 – 16 year old. Many schools provide well in excess of these minimum numbers and work with other partners such as neighbouring schools, colleges and work-based providers to deliver these courses. Evidence shows that

6 larger schools have an advantage in providing a broader range of learning pathways because specialised subjects are financially more viable and sustainable.

Currently, secondary schools in North Powys can only offer students the number and range of courses to meet the requirements of the Learning and Skills Measure by collaborating with other partner schools and providers, including in a few cases, providers in neighbouring local authorities. Although courses can be offered to pupils outside their own school location, experience shows that it is difficult for pupils to attend too many off-site courses before organisational and transport issues become an added burden on curriculum planning and school budgets. The rigours of these financial implications are more acutely accentuated in rural authorities like Powys. This conundrum reflects the endless challenges that schools face in light of this fairly new legislation.

In March 2014, the Minister for Education and Skills appointed Professor Graham Donaldson to lead a comprehensive, independent review of the curriculum and assessment arrangements in Wales. Professor Donaldson’s report entitled Successful Futures: Independent Review of Curriculum and Assessment Arrangements in Wales was published in February 2015. His recommendations mark a radical departure from the curriculum of the last century and provide an opportunity to build a new curriculum for Wales which is fit for the 21st Century and beyond. The Welsh Government’s Education Minister has accepted all the recommendations made in his report. No timescale has yet been agreed for delivery but a framework for the implementation of the new curriculum is to be published in Autumn 2015.

Professor Donaldson has identified very real strengths in Wales, for example the Foundation Phase and the commitment to the Welsh language and culture. One of his recommendations stated that Welsh-medium schools should act as hubs for the Welsh language, supporting teachers and practitioners in English-medium schools. In the opinion of this report, Powys needs to be at the forefront of this new and exciting initiative and establishing a Welsh-medium secondary school or schools in North Powys would enable the authority to play a key part in this new drive towards developing bilingualism in English-medium schools or English-medium streams in primary and secondary schools.

2.4 Pupil Numbers and the Small Size of North Powys Secondary Schools

Pupil numbers in Powys have been decreasing over recent years, and this trend is expected to continue.

In order to understand the impact of falling pupil numbers on secondary schools, the Authority commissioned Price Waterhouse Coopers (PWC) to develop an interactive spreadsheet model that would enable the Authority to identify the optimum model of

7 delivery for secondary schools and sixth forms. The model has been designed to consider the impact of altering the overall configuration of secondary education in Powys. The model can show the effect of various scenarios, allowing the user to assess the viability of those scenarios on the current landscape, the projected landscape in seven years time and the projected landscape in 20 years time.

To support the modelling exercise, the following working assumptions were agreed:

• Minimum size of school in Powys of 600 (11 – 16). A school of 600 pupils across key stages 3 & 4 will have average year group sizes of a minimum of 120 children, split into 4 teaching groups of 30 or 5 teaching groups of 24. • Minimum size of sixth form in Powys of 150 • Viable Welsh-medium stream / English-medium stream – minimum of 2 classes/groups per cohort • Home to school transport provision for learners living more than 3 miles from the closest allocated school • Travel time should not normally exceed 60 minutes

The scenario modelling exercise suggested that a rationalisation of secondary schools and sixth forms is required to create a future sustainable infrastructure. However, it must be recognised that, in some situations, geographic or linguistic issues make the aspirational targets for size of schools, sixth forms or Welsh streams difficult to achieve, and therefore alternative solutions may need to be considered.

However, using the working assumptions for size of schools and sixth forms outlined previously, projections indicate that the four dual-stream schools in North Powys will fall below these thresholds. The relatively small size of these schools and the requirement to provide an appropriate range of both Welsh-medium and English- medium subjects in KS4 and in the sixth form is particularly testing.

Based on January 2015 PLASC information, pupil numbers in the 6 secondary schools in north Powys were as follows:

School Total Number of Number in Sixth School Capacity Pupils Form Bro Hyddgen 324 65 463 (Secondary Phase) Caereinion 530 83 603 Llanfyllin 872 200 916 Llanidloes 573 97 692 Newtown 1144 108 1453 (including John 961 (Newtown Beddoes) campus) Welshpool 945 192 1181

The above figures show that three of the schools in North Powys are currently below the minimum threshold of 600 pupils in Years 7-11 and four have fewer than 150 students in the sixth form.

In terms of future projections up to 2021, slight increases are forecasted for Newtown High School (+65) and Ysgol Uwchradd Caereinion (+29) and slight decreases are forecasted for Llanfyllin High School (+41), Llanidloes High School (- 75), Welshpool High School (-45) and Ysgol Bro Hyddgen (-32). This amounts to an overall drop of 99 secondary pupils in North Powys by 2021. In addition, pupil numbers in North Powys primary schools are projected increase slightly. Although there is a significant migration of pupils across local authority boundaries in Powys, projections indicate that the pupil population in the secondary sector will remain fairly constant over the coming years.

It needs to be emphasised however that it is the decrease in pupil numbers and the small size of many North Powys secondary schools and streams that is driving the transformation proposals and recommendations in this paper. The core problem for 11–18 provision in North Powys is one of small schools. Where a small school is a dual stream school, this is compounded, as there are essentially two small schools on one site. It is becoming increasingly obvious that the small size of the majority of secondary schools and the constant challenges of maintaining dual-language provision heightens the pressure placed on schools to provide choice and quality for their learners. One of the core considerations for this study is the sustainability of that model and provision under the current delivery structure. It is hoped however that one of the main consequences of the transformation process will be an improvement in overall standards and quality of provision.

2.5 The need to provide more robust Linguistic Continuity for Welsh- medium pupils

When the Welsh Government published Iaith Pawb – a National Action Plan for a Bilingual Wales in 2003, it made a public commitment to creating a truly bilingual Wales ‘where people can choose to live their lives through the medium of either or both Welsh or English and where the presence of the two languages is a source of pride and strength to us all.’

In 2007 the Welsh Government committed to creating a national Welsh-medium Education Strategy to develop effective Welsh-medium provision from nursery through to further and higher education. The Welsh-medium Education Strategy was launched in April 2010 and sets the national strategic direction for Welsh-medium education. It includes strategic aims, objectives and targets for the various phases in education and training in Wales, and emphasises the importance of improving

effective planning for Welsh-medium education and seeks to do so in co-operation with local authorities and their regional consortia and other partners.

Welsh-medium secondary education in Powys is provided through 6 dual stream schools across the county. In November 2011, following a review of Secondary Provision in Powys, the Local Authority’s Cabinet agreed that Welsh-medium secondary education would continue to be delivered through 6 dual-stream schools in Powys, 4 of which are in North Powys. 5 of the schools (Brecon, Bro Ddyfi, Builth Wells, Caereinion and Llanfyllin) would be supported over time to become Bilingual Category 2B schools, whilst Llanidloes would develop over time to become a Category 2C school 1.

In February 2012, Cabinet approved the first version of the authority’s Welsh in Education Strategic Plan (WESP), which included a target that these schools would achieve Category 2B or 2C status by 2015.

In January 2013, the National Assembly passed the Schools Standards and Organisation (Wales) Act which included a statutory requirement for all local authorities to prepare a WESP detailing how it would contribute to achieving the outcomes and targets set out in the Welsh-medium Education Strategy, and requiring authorities to submit their WESPs to the Welsh Government for approval. The Act also included a requirement for authorities to submit a revised WESP in 2014, for approval in accordance with the new regulations.

Powys’ current WESP for 2014-17 was approved by Cabinet in May 2014 and by Welsh Government in June 2014. One of the Strategic Aims stated in the WESP is ‘to provide robust linguistic continuity of Welsh-medium provision across all key phases of education’, to enable all children and young people across Powys to experience the cultural and cognitive benefits of bilingualism. This version of the WESP states the authority’s current policy in respect of Welsh-medium secondary education, which is to aim that all dual stream secondary schools become category 2B secondary schools by September 2020, to ensure that pupils are able to access sufficient Welsh-medium provision to enable them to continue to develop their Welsh-medium skills during their time at secondary school. However, progress towards achieving this aim has been limited, particularly in respect of Key Stage 4 provision, and this is compounded by the challenging financial situation faced by the authority, which will make it increasingly difficult to achieve this target by 2020.

The authority is now keen to identify alternative options in order to improve the opportunities available to Welsh-medium and English-medium pupils through all key stages. In January 2015, Cabinet approved the commencement of a Secondary Reorganisation Programme, which would include taking forward the reconfiguration

1 The Welsh Government’s language categories are summarised in Appendix A.

10 of Welsh-medium education. In March 2015, Cabinet agreed the commencement of three reviews, one of which is ‘Secondary Education in North Powys’. It notes that the review will give consideration to ‘the viability of the current dual-stream delivery model in North Powys, and will assess the feasibility and impact of introducing a new delivery model, which includes a Welsh-medium secondary school or schools.’

In its Welsh-medium Education Strategy, the Welsh Government states that ‘Welsh- medium education from the early years, with robust linguistic progression through every phase of education, offers the best conditions for developing people who are truly bilingual’. It adds that ‘schools, local authorities and providers need to plan strategically to facilitate linguistic progression in order to increase the numbers achieving fluency in a broad range of Welsh language skills.’

In the primary sector, Welsh-medium pupils benefit from full immersion in the Welsh language. They are taught in separate Welsh-medium classes, and with the exception of English, all subjects are taught through the medium of Welsh. This model enables pupils to make good progress in developing their Welsh language skills. However, research shows that ‘valuable language skills learned at primary school are quickly lost if the medium of instruction is changed – this is especially true for children from non-Welsh speaking families.’ ( Promoting Linguistic Progression between Key stage 2 and 3 , Welsh Government, February 2012). In order for Welsh- medium learning to be meaningful, there should be continuity and progression throughout the whole period of statutory education in terms of the extent that Welsh- medium provision is provided. These are essential requirements which ensure that learners make and sustain good progress in their Welsh and bilingual skills. In many instances in dual-stream schools, appropriate linguistic continuity and progression is not fully achieved, mainly as a result of financial pressures.

Currently, there are no designated Welsh-medium secondary schools in Powys. However, in South Powys, pupils from the Ystradgynlais area transfer out of county to Ysgol Gyfun Ystalyfera, a Welsh-medium secondary school in Neath Port Talbot, for secondary and post-16 Welsh-medium education. North Powys is the only area in Wales where pupils of secondary age cannot attend a designated Welsh-medium secondary school.

Powys County Council’s School Transformation Policy , approved by Cabinet in November 2014, states that ‘the Authority agrees with the Welsh Government’s view that Welsh-medium schools provide pupils with the best opportunity to be fully immersed in the Welsh language, to ensure that they are fully bilingual, and are confident communicating in both Welsh and English when they leave school.’ It further notes that ‘Within this context, the council aims to ensure that all Powys learners have the opportunity to become confident bilingual citizens, and supporting learners to achieve fluency in Welsh and English through Welsh-medium education from the early years onwards is a key focus of the council’s Welsh in Education

Strategic Plan for 2014-17.’ The Council also also makes a commitment to identifying opportunities to further develop Welsh medium education by:

• Establishing new Welsh-medium schools • Re-categorising some dual-stream schools as Welsh-medium schools.

As noted previously, the local authority’s progress towards achieving the core aims of its WESP has been restricted by the increasingly challenging financial situation faced by schools. The authority is now keen to identify alternative options in order to improve the opportunities available to Welsh-medium and English-medium pupils, and is keen to explore the option of establishing one or more Bilingual Category 2A secondary schools in North Powys in order to achieve these aims.

3. The Current Position

3.1 Current Secondary Provision in North Powys

Six schools currently offer secondary provision in North Powys: Ysgol Bro Hyddgen, Machynlleth, Ysgol Uwchradd Caereinion, Llanfyllin High School, Llanidloes High School, Newtown High School and Welshpool High School. Each has unique characteristics that reflect the differing socio-economic, geographical, linguistic and demographic nature of the communities they serve. All six schools provide education for pupils aged 11 – 18, however Ysgol Bro Hyddgen in Machynlleth is also an All Through School for 4 – 18 year old pupils. Newtown High School is a dual-sited secondary school with a campus in Presteigne.

At post-16, Powys County Council meets the Learning and Skills (Wales) Measure through a commissioning arrangement with schools and NPTC Group of Colleges (NPTC). In North Powys, the planning of the post-16 curriculum is undertaken collaboratively, with a single shared post-16 timetable. Most of the schools have been proactive over the last few years and have established local area partnerships. Ysgol Uwchradd Caereinion, Llanfyllin High School and Welshpool High School collaborate as a specific partnership – Trisgol, and Ysgol Bro Hyddgen has formed a partnership with Ysgol Penweddig in Aberystwyth. Llanidloes High School and Newtown High School are part of the wider North Powys Post-16 Partnership.

According to the Pupil Annual Level School Census (PLASC) carried out in January 2015, there were 4,388 pupils aged 11–18 attending secondary schools in North Powys. Similar to other parts of Powys, the area has seen a steady decline in pupil numbers, a trend which is expected to continue for the next few years.

The following table shows the total number of pupils attending North Powys secondary schools since 2011, according to PLASC information:

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Bro Hyddgen 363 335 346 342 324 (Secondary Phase) Caereinion 620 610 573 549 530 Llanfyllin 927 886 871 831 872 Llanidloes 691 637 611 578 573 Newtown 1261 1251 1213 1158 1144 (including John Beddoes) Welshpool 1133 1082 1033 968 945 Total 4995 4801 4647 4426 4388

The following table shows the total number of pupils forecast to attend North Powys secondary schools up until 2021:

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Bro Hyddgen 298 293 287 290 293 292 (Secondary Phase) Caereinion 527 528 533 546 553 559 Llanfyllin 837 841 845 835 823 831 Llanidloes 544 543 517 518 505 498 Newtown 1139 1145 1147 1157 1175 1209 (including John Beddoes) Welshpool 901 890 888 875 886 900 Total 4246 4239 4217 4220 4234 4289

The following table shows the number of pupils in each year group in each school, according to January 2015 PLASC information:

Yr. 7 Yr. 8 Yr. 9 Yr. 10 Yr. 11 Yr. 12 Yr. 13 Total Bro Hyddgen 45 54 51 37 72 30 35 324 Caereinion 94 88 88 85 92 38 45 530 Llanfyllin 151 119 129 143 130 89 111 872 Llanidloes 86 94 95 87 114 49 48 573 Newtown 210 201 193 205 227 63 45 1144 (including John Beddoes) Welshpool 140 139 139 157 178 105 87 945 Total 726 695 695 714 813 374 371 4388

The following table shows the percentage of pupils staying on for sixth form education for each school for the 2014/15 academic year:

Staying on Staying on Yr 11 – Yr 12 Yr 12 - 13 Bro Hyddgen 64% 87% Caereinion 48% 93% Llanfyllin 62% 90% Llanidloes 50% 78% Newtown 30% 85% Welshpool 49% 79%

3.1.1 Individual School Profiles

Profiles of each school are provided below: i) Ysgol Bro Hyddgen

Ysgol Bro Hyddgen is a dual stream 4-18 ‘all-through’ school established in September 2014, following the merger of Ysgol Bro Ddyfi (11-18) and Machynlleth CP School. This is the first ‘all-through’ school of its kind in Powys and is situated on two sites at the peripheries of the town of Machynlleth. A large percentage of the pupils live in the town but a significant number come from the more rural communities. The school draws pupils from three counties – Powys, Gwynedd and Ceredigion . The total number of pupils at the school in January 2015 was 542, with 324 pupils in the secondary sector, including 65 in the sixth form. The number of pupils in the secondary sector is projected to decline to 292 by January 2021. In 2014-15, 66% of pupils in Years 7-11 studied Welsh as a first language.

In the secondary sector, based on 2014 data 7.2% of pupils received free school meals and no pupils had a statement of special educational needs compared with 2.6% for Wales as a whole. The attendance rate for 2013-14 was 94.5% which was above the national average of 93.6% . The secondary sector has 27.8 teachers (FTE) and has a pupil /teacher ratio of 1:12. The school budget per pupil in the secondary sector was £4,591 in 2015 compared to a Powys secondary sector average per pupil of £4,155. Ysgol Bro Hyddgen also received £83,293 as a dual-stream uplift to support the development of Welsh-medium education. The school had a budget surplus of £14,904 at the end of 2014-15, although £31,129 was written off the budget deficit when Ysgol Bro Ddyfi closed at the end of 2013-14.

In 2014, 91.7% of pupils reached the expected standards at the end of KS3 which was above the local authority figure of 86.5%. In the same year at KS4, 67.3% of pupils achieved the Level 2 threshold including English or Welsh and Mathematics, which was well above the local authority figure of 59.6%. 100% of pupils achieved the Level 3 threshold at the end of Year 13 in 2014 compared to the local authority average of 98.8% and the all Wales average of 97.1%.

Ysgol Bro Ddyfi was last inspected in 2008 and the following table shows the grades that it received against each of the Key Criteria:

Key Question Inspection Grade 1 How well do learners achieve? 3 2 How effective are teaching, training and assessment? 2 3 How well do the learning experiences meet the needs 3 and interests of learners and the wider community?

4 How well are learners cared for, guided and supported? 2 5 How effective are leadership and strategic 3 management? 6 How well do leaders and managers evaluate and 3 improve quality and standards? 7 How efficient are leaders and managers in using 3 resources?

Ysgol Gynradd Machynlleth was inspected in 2009 and received the following grades:

Key Question Inspection Grade 1 How well do learners achieve? 2 2 How effective are teaching, training and assessment? 2 3 How well do the learning experiences meet the needs 1 and interests of learners and the wider community? 4 How well are learners cared for, guided and supported? 1 5 How effective are leadership and strategic 2 management? 6 How well do leaders and managers evaluate and 2 improve quality and standards? 7 How efficient are leaders and managers in using 2 resources?

The school has been placed in the Yellow support category in the recent National Categorisation of Schools, which is defined as ‘an effective school which is already doing well and knows the areas it needs to improve’.

According to 2014 data, 87% of pupils attend Ysgol Bro Hyddgen as their nearest secondary school based on home-to-school travel time. Most of those at Ysgol Bro Hyddgen who do not attend their nearest secondary school are from south Gwynedd.

In the sixth form, the school works in co-operation with Ysgol Penweddig, Aberystwyth to offer a range of provision to learners. ii) Ysgol Uwchradd Caereinion

Ysgol Uwchradd Caereinion is a dual stream 11-18 secondary school with 530 pupils on the school roll (January 2015) of which 83 were in the sixth form. The total number of pupils is projected to increase to 559 by January 2021. The majority of pupils come from the eight primary schools within the rural catchment area of the school. Other pupils who wish to receive Welsh-medium education come from

Welshpool and Newtown. In 2014-15, 59% of pupils in Years 7-11 studied Welsh as a first language.

6.3% of pupils receive free school meals and there are no recorded statements of special educational needs compared with 2.6% for Wales as a whole. The attendance rate for 2013-14 was 94.4% which was above the national average of 93.6%. The school has 39 teachers (FTE) and has a pupil /teacher ratio of 1:14. The school budget per pupil was £4,469 in 2015 compared to a Powys secondary sector average per pupil of £4,155. Ysgol Caereinion also received £104,117 as a dual- stream uplift to support the development of Welsh-medium education. The school had a budget surplus of £77,872 at the end of 2014-15.

In 2014, 90.5% of pupils reached the expected standards in core subjects at the end of KS3 which was above the local authority figure of 86.5%. In the same year at KS4, 67.3% of pupils achieved the Level 2 threshold including English or Welsh and Mathematics, which was well above the local authority figure of 59.6%. All pupils (100%) achieved the Level 3 threshold at the end of Year 13 in 2014 which was above the local authority average of 98.8% and the all Wales average of 97.1%.

Ysgol Uwchradd Caereinion was last inspected by Estyn in November 2013, and the school received the following grades:

Current Performance Adequate Prospects for Improvement Adequate

The school has been placed in the Amber support category in the recent National Categorisation of Schools, meaning that it is an ‘a school in need of improvement which needs help to identify the steps to improve of to make change happen more quickly.’

Based on 2014 data, 57% of pupils attend Ysgol Uwchradd Caereinion as their nearest secondary school. However it needs to be borne in mind that about 17% of the annual intakes are former pupils of Ysgol Dafydd Llwyd who attend Ysgol Uwchradd Caereinion as their nearest bilingual school. Most of these pupils come from the Newtown area. iii) Llanfyllin High School

Llanfyllin High School is a dual stream 11-18 secondary school with 872 pupils (January 2015) of which 200 were in the sixth form. The total number of pupils is projected to decline to 831 by January 2021. In 2014-15, 19% of pupils in years 7 – 11 studied Welsh as a first language.

Based on 2014 data, 5% of pupils receive free school meals and 1.4% of pupils have a statement of special educational needs compared with 2.6% for Wales as a whole. The attendance rate for 2013-14 was 94.9% which was above the national average of 93.6%. The school has 55.6 teachers (FTE) and has a pupil/teacher ratio of 1:15. The school budget per pupil was £3,951 in 2015 compared to a Powys secondary sector average per pupil of £4,155. Llanfyllin High School also received £97,260 as a dual-stream uplift to support the development of Welsh-medium education. The school had a budget surplus of £116,966 at the end of 2014-15.

In 2014, 88.7% of pupils reached the expected standards at the end of KS3 which was above the local authority figure of 86.5%. In the same year at KS4, 67.4% of pupils achieved the Level 2 threshold including English or Welsh and Mathematics, which was well above the local authority figure of 59.6%. 98.8% of pupils achieved the Level 3 threshold at the end of Year 13 in 2014 which was at the same level as the local authority average of 98.8% but above the all Wales average of 97.1%.

The school was last inspected in 2009, and was graded as follows:

Key Question Inspection Grade 1How well do learners achieve? 1 2 How effective are teaching, training and assessment? 2 3 How well do the learning experiences meet the needs 2 and interests of learners and the wider community? 4 How well are learners cared for, guided and supported? 2 5 How effective are leadership and strategic 3 management? 6 How well do leaders and managers evaluate and 3 improve quality and standards? 7 How efficient are leaders and managers in using 2 resources?

According to 201/15 data, 51% of pupils attend Ysgol Llanfyllin as their nearest school based on home-to-school travel time. A particular feature of Llanfyllin School is that about 250 pupils (which equates to about 23% of all pupils) are bussed in by the school from across the border in England, mostly from the Oswestry area. These pupils give the school a unique identity and the school is very dependent on the continued support of parents from the border region – recent educational developments in Shropshire may possibly have an impact on this in future.

The school has been running a late immersion (‘Trochi’) programme for a number of years, which has enabled a number of learners educated through the medium of English in the primary sector to transfer to the Welsh-medium sector for their secondary education. iv) Llanidloes High School

Llanidloes High School is a dual stream 11-18 school with 573 pupils (January 2015) of which 97 were in the sixth form . The total number of pupils is projected to fall to 498 by January 2021. In 2014-15, 13% of pupils in years 7–11 studied Welsh as a first language.

Based on 2014 data, 10.6% of pupils receive free school meals and 2.7% of pupils have a statement of special educational needs compared with 2.6% for Wales as a whole. The attendance rate for 2013-14 was 94.2% which was above the national average of 93.6%. The school has 44.9 teachers (FTE) and has a pupil /teacher ratio of 1:13 . About 50% of staff are Welsh speaking and 11 teachers currently teach Welsh as a subject or/and teach through the medium of Welsh. The school budget per pupil was £4,343 in 2015 compared to a Powys secondary sector average per pupil of £4,155. Llanidloes High School also received £83,039 as a dual-stream uplift to support the development of Welsh-medium education. The school had a budget deficit of £277,709 at the end of 2014-15.

In 2014, 90.5% of pupils reached the expected standards at the end of KS3 which is above the local authority figure of 86.5%. In the same year at KS4, 69% of pupils achieved the Level 2 threshold including English or Welsh and Mathematics, which was well above the local authority figure of 59.6%. 95% of pupils achieved the Level 3 threshold at the end of Year 13 in 2014 which was below the local authority average of 98.8% and the all Wales average of 97.1%.

The school was last inspected in 2009, and was graded as follows:

Key Question Inspection Grade 1 How well do learners achieve? 3 2 How effective are teaching, training and assessment? 2 3 How well do the learning experiences meet the needs and 2 interests of learners and the wider community? 4 How well are learners cared for, guided and supported? 2 5 How effective are leadership and strategic management? 3 6 How well do leaders and managers evaluate and improve 3 quality and standards? 7 How efficient are leaders and managers in using resources? 2

According to 2014 data, 61% of pupils attend Llanidloes High School as their nearest secondary school based on home-to-school travel time.

v) Newtown High School

Newtown High School is an 11-18 English-medium school with 1,144 pupils on the school roll (January 2015) of which 108 were in the sixth form. This includes a number of pupils from John Beddoes School in Presteigne following its closure in April 2014. The total number of pupils at the school is projected to increase to 1,209 by January 2021. Although the school is English-medium, a small number of pupils study Welsh as a first language up to GCSE level.

Based on 2014 data, 13.3% of pupils receive free school meals and 1.7% of pupils have a statement of special educational needs compared with 2.6% for Wales as a whole. The attendance rate for 2013-14 was 93.7% which was slightly above the national average of 93.6%. The school has 70 teachers (FTE) and has a pupil /teacher ratio of 1:16. The school budget per pupil was £4,237 in 2015 compared to a Powys secondary sector average per pupil of £4,155. The school had a budget surplus of £94,667 at the end of 2014-15.

In 2014, 89.1% of pupils reached the expected standards in the core subjects at the end of KS3 which is above the local authority figure of 86.5%. In the same year at KS4, 54.8% of pupils achieved the Level 2 threshold including English or Welsh and Mathematics, which was below the local authority figure of 59.6%. 100% of pupils achieved the Level 3 threshold at the end of Year 13 in 2014 which was above the local authority average of 98.8% and the all Wales average of 97.1%.

The school was last inspected in 2015, and received the following grades:

Current Performance Adequate Prospects for Improvement Adequate

According to 2014 data, 96% of pupils attend Newtown High School as their nearest secondary school based on home-to-school travel time.

20 vi) Welshpool High School

Welshpool High School is an 11-18 English-medium secondary school with 945 pupils (January 2015) of which 192 were in the sixth form. The total number of pupils is projected to decline to 900 by January 2021. Although Welshpool is an English- medium school it has a small number of Welsh first language pupils. In the past these pupils have been taught Welsh first language as a subject but due to declining numbers and financial pressures this provision has recently being withdrawn and the pupils have been absorbed into Welsh second language groups.

10.2% of pupils receive free school meals and 0.8% of pupils have a statement of educational needs compared to an all-Wales average of 2.6%. The attendance rate for 2013-14 was 94.2% which was above the national average of 93.6% but below the local authority average of 94.4%. The school has 60.5 teachers (FTE) and has a pupil /teacher ratio of 1:16. The school budget per pupil was £3,827 in 2015 compared to a Powys secondary sector average per pupil of £4,155. The school had a budget surplus of £97,039 at the end of 2014-15.

In 2014, 87.2% of pupils reached the expected standards at the end of KS3 which is above the local authority figure of 86.5%. In the same year at KS4, 59.9% of pupils achieved the Level 2 threshold including English or Welsh and Mathematics, which was just above the local authority figure of 59.6%. 100% of pupils achieved the Level 3 threshold at the end of Year 13 in 2014 which again was well above the local authority average of 98.8% and the all Wales average of 97.1%.

The school was last inspected in 2010 and received the following grading:

Current Performance Good Prospects for Improvement Good

According to 2014 data, 90% of pupils attend Welshpool High School as their nearest secondary school based on home-to-school travel time.

3.2 Analysis of Welsh-medium Provision in North Powys

Welsh-medium secondary provision in Powys has traditionally been delivered through Welsh-medium streams in dual stream schools. However, the number of

Welsh-medium pupils and the number of Welsh-medium subjects available in each school varies significantly.

3.2.1 Welsh-medium pupils numbers in North Powys

i) Secondary Sector

The following table shows the number of Welsh-medium pupils in years 7–11 attending each of the dual-stream schools in North Powys in September 2014, according to information provided by each school, as well as the percentage of the year group educated through the medium of Welsh and the percentage of the Welsh- medium pupils as a proportion of the total number of pupils in years 7–11 in each school.

Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10 Yr 11 Total Bro 29 (64%) 36 (67%) 32 (63%) 23 (62%) 53 (74%) 173 Hyddgen (67%) Caereinion 59 (63%) 53 (60%) 47 (53%) 43 (47%) 52 (57%) 254 (57%) Llanfyllin 2 37 (25%) 25 (21%) 19 (15%) 24 (17%) 21 (16%) 126 (19%) Llanidloes 11 (13%) 17 (18%) 13 (14%) 8 (9%) 11 (10%) 60 (13%) Total 136 131 111 98 137 613

This information shows that there is a significant variation between the number of Welsh-medium pupils in each year group between the four schools ranging from an average of 12 per year group in Llanidloes High School to an average of 51 per year group at Caereinion, and from 13% of pupils in years 7–11 in Llanidloes High School to 67% of pupils in years 7–11 in Ysgol Bro Hyddgen.

ii) Primary Sector

The following tables provide information about the number of Welsh-medium pupils attending Welsh-medium or dual-stream primary provision in each high school catchment area, according to January 2015 PLASC information:

2 Includes pupils in ‘Trochi’ classes in Year 7 and Year 8

Ysgol Bro Hyddgen catchment area:

R Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Total Bro Hyddgen 15 24 20 23 19 20 9 130 Carno 6 7 5 4 7 4 5 38 Glantwymyn 8 12 5 13 10 7 11 66 Llanbrynmair 9 8 7 7 7 8 5 51 Total 38 51 37 47 43 39 30 285

Ysgol Uwchradd Caereinion catchment area:

R Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Total Ardwyn / 16 10 7 8 7 3 10 61 Maesydre Banw 6 4 4 7 4 8 2 35 Dafydd 26 27 25 31 15 23 17 164 Llwyd Llanerfyl 1 4 4 5 7 8 5 34 Llanfair 14 11 17 10 15 13 11 91 Caereinion Pontrobert 1 3 6 2 6 8 2 28 Rhiw 12 10 10 12 13 3 9 69 Bechan Total 76 69 73 75 67 66 56 482

Llanfyllin High School catchment area:

R Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Total Llanfyllin 8 9 21 14 16 6 13 87 Llanrhaeadr- 5 9 6 9 4 5 10 48 ym- Mochnant Pennant 15 5 9 8 5 11 10 63 Total 28 23 36 31 25 22 33 198

Llanidloes High School catchment area:

R Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Total Dyffryn 9 14 6 11 15 9 8 72 Trannon Total 9 14 6 11 15 9 8 72

The following table provides information about the total number of Welsh-medium primary pupils in north Powys:

North Powys Totals

Catchment R Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Total Bro 38 51 37 47 43 39 30 285 Hyddgen Caereinion 76 69 73 75 67 66 56 482 Llanfyllin 28 23 36 31 25 22 33 198 Llanidloes 9 14 6 11 15 9 8 72 Total 151 157 152 164 150 136 127 1037

Based on the current provision in North Powys, this information shows that the general trend in terms of the number of Welsh-medium pupils in each year group is one of steady growth.

3.2.2 Welsh-medium subject provision i) Years 7–11

The following tables summarise the total number of subjects (excluding English and Welsh) taught to each year group in each dual-stream secondary school in North Powys and the number of subjects taught through the medium of Welsh, the medium of English and in Bilingual classes. Further detail is provided in Appendix B.

Ysgol Bro Hyddgen

Total number Number of Number of Number of of subjects Welsh- English- Bilingual medium medium subjects subjects subjects Year 7 12 11 11 0 Year 8 12 11 11 0 Year 9 12 10 10 1 Year 10 19 6 2 13 Year 11 21 9 3 12

Ysgol Uwchradd Caereinion

Total number Number of Number of Number of of subjects Welsh- English- Bilingual medium medium subjects subjects subjects Year 7 16 15 16 0 Year 8 17 16 17 0 Year 9 18 15 18 0 Year 10 21 13 18 3 Year 11 22 13 18 4

Llanfyllin High School

Total number Number of Number of Number of of subjects Welsh- English- Bilingual medium medium subjects subjects subjects Year 7 13 10 12 2 Year 8 14 11 14 2 Year 9 15 12 15 2 Year 10 25 12 22 3 Year 11 24 12 20 4

Llanidloes High School

Total number Number of Number of Number of of subjects Welsh- English- Bilingual medium medium subjects subjects subjects Year 7 12 9 12 0 Year 8 12 9 12 0 Year 9 13 9 13 0 Year 10 23 5 23 0 Year 11 24 5 24 1

This information shows that there is significant disparity in the level of Welsh-medium provision available to Welsh-medium pupils attending each of these schools, particularly in KS4.

It is also clear that Welsh-medium provision in dual-stream schools decreases as pupils progress through the key stages. This is largely due to curriculum demands and financial constraints as it becomes increasingly difficult to sustain parallel

25 provision in both languages in the upper reaches of a dual-stream school. This raises important questions about the parity and continuity of provision for Welsh- medium pupils as they progress from one key stage to another and the equal opportunities available to them in terms of their learning entitlements.

It is also worth noting that all of the dual-stream schools use a bilingual teaching model to some extent, in order to address the difficulties associated with small groups of pupils.With this model, Welsh-medium and English-medium pupils are taught in one class, and the teacher uses both languages. This model requires a very high level of teaching skills, and puts both Welsh-medium and English-medium pupils at a disadvantage. This model is not supported by Powys County Council.

Powys County Council’s current policy aim as stated in the authority’s WESP is to ensure that all dual-stream schools become Category 2B schools by 2020, based on the Welsh Government’s language categorisations. These language categories are summarised in Appendix A.

Based on the information provided above, the language categories of the four dual- stream schools in North Powys for the 2014-15 academic year were as follows:

KS3 KS4 Overall (Yr 7 – 11) Bro Hyddgen 89% (2B) 38% (3) 68% (2C) Caereinion 90% (2B) 61% (2C) 78% (2C) Llanfyllin 79% (2C) 49% (3) 67% (2C) Llanidloes 73% (2C) 22% (3) 52% (2C)

Whilst Ysgol Uwchradd Caereinion are very close to achieving the 2B categorisation overall for Years 7–11, at present, none of the dual-stream schools in North Powys meet the definition of a category 2B school. ii) Sixth Form Provision

In the sixth form, Welsh-medium provision is available at Ysgol Uwchradd Caereinion, Llanfyllin High School and Ysgol Bro Hyddgen, however again, the number of subjects available varies significantly.

Appendix C shows the subjects taught in the sixth form in North Powys secondary schools during 2014/15. This information clearly underlines the fact that the Welsh- medium subject provision is very limited in comparison with the provision available through the medium of English.

In many cases, due to small pupil numbers, schools use a bilingual teaching model in order to accommodate Welsh-medium and English-medium pupils in one class. As

26 well as being very difficult for the teacher, this model is equally unfair to both Welsh- medium and English-medium pupils.

4. An evaluation of the need for a Category 2A school or schools in North Powys

4.1 Context – The Welsh Language in North Powys

Parts of Montgomeryshire in North Powys are generally considered by language experts to be amongst the most linguistically important communities in the whole of Wales. They form part of the traditional heartland area extending from South-west Wales through Mid Wales to North-west Wales where Welsh is largely the predominant language of everyday life. This geographical core (‘Y Fro Gymraeg’) has been crucial in maintaining Welsh as a living language up to the present day.

However, the Welsh language, like many other minority or indigenous languages, faces enormous pressures from globalisation, economic instability, the growth of technology and population movements, which can make small-scale language communities even more vulnerable and marginal. These external influences and other factors relating to the lack of institutional infrastructure support has led to the fragmentation of these Welsh speaking communities over the last fifty years. As a result, language planners in Wales are now looking at an interesting strategic dualism which on the one hand seeks to revitalise a declining heartland and on the other create a resurgent periphery, which together can construct a fully functioning bilingual society.

This structural review of secondary education in North Powys has been tasked to consider the language context and the growth of Welsh-medium education in its deliberations. Recognising the significance of the heartland areas and peripheral communities to language revival will be central to that aim.

According to information from the 2011 census, the most Welsh speaking Electoral Districts in North Powys are Glantwymyn (58%), Banwy (56%) and Machynlleth (52%) where over 50% of the population speak Welsh, and Llanbrynmair(48%), Llanfihangel (43%), Llanwddyn (43%), Llanfair Caereinion (36%), Llanfyllin (34%) and Llanrhaeadr-ym-Mochnant/Llansilin (34%) where between a third and half the population are Welsh speakers. Overall, there has been a decrease in the number and proportion of Welsh speakers in North Powys between 2001-2011. Further detail is provided in the table in Appendix D.

The map below shows the geographical distribution of Welsh speakers in North Powys. The darkly shaded areas are the Electoral Districts with the highest percentage of Welsh speakers. It is not surprising to see that the heartland areas are predominantly in the north-west with a band of significant Welsh speaking communities also prominent in the mid part of Montgomeryshire along the Banwy, Cain and Tanat valleys. It is also not surprising to find that the most Anglicised areas

28 are along or near the English border in Electoral Districts like Churchstoke (4%), Berriew (10%) and Forden (11%).

Geographical distribution of Welsh speakers in North Powys The plight of the Welsh language in North Powys follows similar patterns to other parts of Wales in terms of its spatial presence, with the language shift moving in an easterly to westerly direction. The north-west of the county however still remains a very important language stronghold.

4.2 Advantages and disadvantages of different models of delivering Welsh- medium secondary provision

Whilst Welsh-medium secondary provision in Powys has traditionally been delivered via a dual-stream model, a range of different models are used across Wales. The term ‘bilingual education’ is used to refer to a wide range of provision, which includes varying amounts of Welsh language in the delivery. Bilingual schools can include

29 those where a large proportion of the curriculum is delivered through the medium of Welsh, dual-stream schools where Welsh-medium and English-medium courses are taught separately, schools where only a few elements of the curriculum or only a small number of pupils are taught through the medium of Welsh or schools where Welsh-medium and English-medium pupils are taught in the same class using both languages.

In 2007, the Welsh Government published the document Defining schools according to Welsh medium provision (2007), which outlines definintions and categories of schools according to the amount of Welsh used in teaching and learning and in the daily life of the school. These categories are summarised in Appendix A, however more detailed consideration of these models that provide Welsh-medium education is provided below, along with consideration of the advantages and disadvantages of each model.

i) Welsh-medium Secondary School – Category 1

Curriculum – All subjects (including RE and PSE) apart from English are taught through the medium of Welsh to all pupils, althrough some schools may introduce English terminology in one or two subjects.

Language of the School – Welsh is the day-to-day language of the school. Welsh is the language of communication with the pupils and for the school’s administration. The school communicates with parents in both languages.

Outcomes – For all pupils the normal expectation is that assessment at KS3 and KS4 will be through the medium of Welsh in all subjects apart from English or other languages, and that pupils will be able to progress easily to Welsh-medium post 16 provision.

Advantages Disadvantages - Provide a greater level of immersion - Possible additional travel time for in the Welsh language, therefore pupils wishing to be educated more effective in enabling learners through the medium of English who (especially those from non-Welsh live nearer to a Category 1 school speaking homes) to become fully and for Welsh-medium pupils living bilingual closer to a school that does not - Welsh is the main language used in provide Welsh-medium education the school to communicate with - Could lead to conflict in the pupils, which creates a Welsh ethos community and normalises the use of Welsh - Less exposure to the Welsh language for English-medium pupils

- Provides an environment where Welsh is the dominant language, which gives it increased status. - All pupils are fluent in Welsh, therefore developing pupils’ bilingual skills and confidence is less challenging - Financially more more efficient as courses only need to be provided in one language - Not splitting the school population in to two streams provides more viable sized teaching groups - There would be no need to provide a dual-stream uplift - Easier to attract Welsh-medium teachers.

ii) Bilingual Secondary School – Category 2A (Often referred to as a Welsh- medium secondary school)

Curriculum – At least 80% of subjects apart from English and Welsh are taught only through the medium of Welsh to all pupils. One or two subjects are taught to some pupils in English or in both languages.

Language of the School – The day to day language or languages of the school will be determined by its linguistic context. Both languages are used to communicate with pupils and for the school’s administration. A high priority is given to creating a Welsh ethos. The school communicates with parents in both languages.

Outcomes – For pupils following the maximum number of courses through the medium of Welsh, the normal expectation is that assessment at KS3 and KS4 would be through the medium of Welsh in those subjects and that they would be able to progress easily to post 16 provision through the medium of Welsh in chosen subjects.

Advantages Disadvantages - Provide a greater level of immersion - Additional travel for pupils wishing to in the Welsh language, therefore be educated through the medium of more effective in enabling learners English who live nearer to a (especially those from non-Welsh Category 1 school and for Welsh- medium pupils living closer to a

speaking homes) to become fully school that does not provide Welsh- bilingual medium education - Welsh is the main language used in - Could lead to conflict in the the school to communicate with community pupils, which creates a Welsh ethos - Less exposure to the Welsh and normalises the use of Welsh language for English-medium pupils - Provides an environment where Welsh is the dominant language, which gives it increased status. - All pupils are fluent in Welsh, therefore developing pupils’ bilingual skills is less challenging - More financially efficient as courses only need to be provided in one language - Not splitting the school population in to two streams provides more viable sized teaching groups - There would be no need to provide a dual-stream uplift - Easier to attract Welsh-medium teachers - Whilst the school would provide a full Welsh-medium curriculum, which would enable all pupils to continue to develop their Welsh language skills throughout their time in secondary school, some English-medium subjects can also be offered.

iii) Dual Stream Secondary School – Category 2B / 2C

Curriculum – At least 80% of subjects (Category 2B) or 50 – 79% or subjects (Category 2C) are taught through the medium of Welsh but are also taught through the medium of English.

Outcomes – For pupils following the maximum number of courses through the medium of Welsh, the normal expectation is that assessment at KS3 and KS4 would

32 be through the medium of Welsh in those subjects and that they would be able to progress easily to post 16 provision through the medium of Welsh in chosen subjects.

Advantages Disadvantages - Some pupils appreciate the - Less immersion in the Welsh opportunity to study a mixture of language, therefore not as effective Welsh-medium and English-medium in enabling learners (especially those options at KS4 and in particular at from non-Welsh speaking homes) to KS5 become fully bilingual - Allows pupils from all linguistic - Welsh-medium pupils are often in backgrounds to attend the same the minority therefore developing school pupils’ bilingual skills is extremely - Dual-stream schools near the border challenging would better attract pupils from - Increasingly difficult to provide outside Powys which would courses in both languages as pupils maximise the net student population move through the school. Less density Welsh-medium subjects can be - Positive impact on the Welsh offered, which impinges the rights of language skills of English-medium pupils to receive fully Welsh-medium pupils education - Minimises travel for Welsh-medium - Achieving viable sized option groups and English-medium pupils. is almost impossible when the cohort is already small in number - Doubling of the number of teaching groups to offer a subject in both languages is a drain on resources and leads to smaller class sizes, which is not sustainable - In some schools, subjects are offered bilingually to provide for Welsh-medium and English-medium pupils in one class. This is very difficult for the teacher, and is equally unfair to both Welsh-medium and English-medium pupils - Due to the low numbers involved, dual-stream schools find it difficult to set pupils according to ability, and pupils often find themselves in mixed ability groups which can hinder their progress and achievement

- The financial uplift to support Welsh- medium education in dual-stream schools in unfair on pupils in English- medium education as it reduces the overall funding available to support their education - Dual-stream schools sometimes find it difficult to attract teachers, due to the fact that lesson plans and notes have to be prepared in two languages.

iv) Bilingual Secondary School – Category 2Ch

Curriculum – All subjects, except Welsh and English are taught to all pupils using both languages.

Outcomes – The normal expectation is that assessment at KS3 and KS4 would be through the medium of Welsh in all subjects except English and that they would normally be able to progress easily to study at post 16 through the medium of Welsh in chosen subjects.

Advantages Disadvantages - Allows pupils from all linguistic - Less immersion in the Welsh backgrounds to attend the same language, therefore not as effective school in enabling learners (especially those - Positive impact on the Welsh from non-Welsh speaking homes) to language skills of English-medium become fully bilingual pupils - Developing pupils’ bilingual skills is - Minimises travel for all pupils extremely challenging as both - More efficient than the dual-stream language are competing for model as pupils are not split into curriculum time Welsh-medium and English-medium - Teaching bilingually is very difficult classes for the teacher, and is equally unfair to both Welsh-medium and English- medium pupils

- Difficult to attract teachers, due to the fact that lesson plans and notes have to be prepared in two languages.

4.3 The Case for Establishing Category 2A Provision in North Powys

The Welsh Government’s Strategy for developing Welsh-medium education notes that ‘Welsh-medium education from the early years, with robust linguistic progression through every phase of education, offers the best conditions for developing future bilingual citizens. Developing language skills is a process that happens over a period of time. It is important that children and young people are able to build on their competence as they mature.’

The strategy places a great deal of emphasis on supporting learners to achieve fluency in Welsh and English and creating opportunities for suitable linguistic progression from the early years onwards. It notes that ‘In Welsh-medium settings, for children from Welsh-speaking homes, Welsh-medium education involves reinforcing and developing their Welsh-language skills through a broad range of curricular experiences. For children from non-Welsh-speaking backgrounds, whose initial and main contact with Welsh is through school, this intensive Welsh-medium provision is through a process of linguistic immersion.’

The bilingual, dual-stream delivery model has served North Powys schools well over recent years but with the growth in demand for Welsh-medium education, the future viability of this model, both educationally and financially, needs further analysis. It is a model however that has worked in other Welsh-speaking parts of Wales as an interim measure but as the Welsh Government recognises, it is limited in its capacity to develop the full range of bilingual competencies required to attain language fluency particularly when compared with the pedagogic framework used in designated Welsh-medium schools.

It can therefore be concluded that establishing Category 2A provision would enable Welsh-medium education in North Powys to develop and flourish. The rationale for this is outlined below.

i) Pupil numbers

The number of pupils currently being educated through the medium of Welsh in North Powys has previously been provided in section 3 of this report. However, the total number of pupils currently being educated through the medium of Welsh in the sector in North Powys is provided again here, for reference:

Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10 Yr 11 Total Bro 29 36 32 23 53 173 Hyddgen Caereinion 59 53 47 43 52 254 Llanfyllin 3 37 25 19 24 21 126 Llanidloes 11 17 13 8 11 60 Total 136 131 111 98 137 613

This information shows that there is an average of 123 Welsh-medium pupils in each year group in North Powys. This is a sizeable baseline for establishing at least one sustainable and viable category 2A secondary school in North Powys.

The number of pupils currently being educated through the medium of Welsh in the primary sector in north Powys has also previously been provided in section 3.2.1 of this report. The total number of pupils is provided again, for reference:

This shows that across North Powys, there is an average of 148 pupils in each year group, based on the current Welsh-medium provision available in the primary sector in North Powys. This is an increase compared with the current numbers in the secondary sector, and is evidence of the growth in demand for Welsh-medium education. Again, this is a sizeable baseline for establishing at least one sustainable and viable category 2A secondary school in North Powys.

These figures show that there is a sound base on which to establish Bilingual Category 2A schools in the area, but the authors of this report believe that more should be done to develop Welsh-medium education in the primary sector to ensure the growth of these designated bilingual secondary schools in the future.

Many local authorities in Wales, who have traditional Welsh-speaking communities, have developed policies which support primary schools to move along a language continuum. This involves developing the Welsh language skills of children from the Foundation Phase through to Key Stage 2. These developments are based on the

3 Includes pupils in ‘Trochi’ classes in Year 7 and Year 8

36 principle that every child should have the opportunity to leave school fluent and confident in both Welsh and English.

Many of the policies implemented in education authorities similar to Powys include:-

• Working closely with staff and governing bodies of dual-stream primary schools to support them over time to become Welsh-medium schools; • Providing support for English-medium primary schools to enable them over a period of time to deliver the curriculum in the Foundation Phase mainly through the medium of Welsh and provide language options in Key Stage 2, which could include choosing a Welsh-medium stream or a bilingual stream (25-50% Welsh medium; • Establishing language immersion centres (often in conjunction with neighbouring local authorities) to provide essential Welsh language skills to pupils moving in to the county who do not speak Welsh.

Obviously, some of these options are easier to implement in larger sized primary schools, especially providing language choice in Key Stage 2, but introducing the Welsh language as an integral part of the Foundation Phase is not only desirable in terms of providing children with basic bilingual skills, but it is also a statutory requirement as set out by Welsh government in its document - Foundation Phase Framework for Children’s Learning for 3 to 7-year-olds in Wales and its subsequent guidance on the Welsh Language Development Area of Learning . The Foundation Phase Framework requires all settings/schools to implement a Welsh language educational programme for children 3 to 7 years.

The Welsh government believes that Welsh language development within the Foundation Phase can be the starting point for children in English-medium settings/schools to begin to communicate in Welsh according to their ability and have sufficient exposure to Welsh to enable them to move into either Welsh-medium or effectively bilingual schools.

Whilst there has been evidence of growth in Welsh-medium education in some parts of North Powys, most notably in Newtown following the establishment of Ysgol Dafydd Llwyd, this hasn’t been the case across the whole area. There remains significant potential for growth in Welsh-medium pupil numbers in the primary sector in North Powys.

Many Welsh-medium secondary schools in other parts of Wales provide a late immersion (‘trochi’) class, which gives the opportunity for pupils educated through the medium of English in the primary sector to transfer to the Welsh-medium sector for their secondary education. Any Category 2A school or schools established in North Powys would be well placed to successfully introduce this type of provision, which would be a further opportunity to increase pupil numbers.

The establishment of Welsh-medium secondary schools in other parts of Wales has also acted as a catalyst for an increase in pupil numbers in the primary sector. There is no reason to believe that this wouldn’t also be the case in North Powys. ii) Equality of provision

As schools are required to provide a greater choice of courses for their pupils, the task of maintaining and increasing the size of Welsh-medium classes whilst improving the bilingual skills of pupils in a dual-stream setting is a constant challenge for North Powys schools. This challenge would be minimised in most cases with the establishment of a Category 2A school or schools. Such schools would not need to duplicate provision and split year groups based on the language of their education, and larger cohorts of Welsh-medium pupils would enable a Category 2A school to offer a greater level of subject choice to learners.

Information about current Welsh-medium subject provision in each of the dual- stream schools in North Powys has previously been provided in section 3.2 of this report. Detailed information about the subject provision in all six secondary schools is provided in Appendix B. This information clearly shows that the Welsh-medium subjects available to Welsh-medium pupils is less than what is available to English- medium pupils, which clearly demonstrates a lack of equality of provision for Welsh- medium pupils.

Further to this, Appendix B also provides information about the subjects available in the two English-medium secondary schools in North Powys. This information is summarised below:

Newtown High School Welshpool High School (Newtown Campus) Year 7 15 13 Year 8 15 13 Year 9 15 14 Year 10 27 28 Year 11 27 30

It is of note that the number of subjects available to pupils in KS4 in both of these schools is significantly greater than the number of subjects available through the medium of English in the four dual-stream schools, which suggests that the current dual-stream model in operation in North Powys results in a lack of equality of provision for English-medium pupils as well as Welsh-medium pupils.

During the recent informal discussions that took place with school communities, concern was raised that the establishment of one or more Category 2A schools

38 would lead to a lack of equality as English-medium pupils would not be able to attend their local school. On the contrary, some parents expressed their wish to have Welsh-medium secondary education for their children which again might not be in their nearest secondary school. The information provided in this report clearly shows that the current educational infrastructure in North Powys does not provide equality of choice for pupils. The choice of having a broad range of subjects through the medium of Welsh in all key stages is not currently available to pupils in North Powys, whilst children attending an English-medium secondary school do have this opportunity. iii) Improved linguistic progression and development of bilingual skills

Academic studies across the world show that if minority or lesser used languages like Welsh are exposed to destabilising external influences without the security of well-cushioned and prominent social domains, they run the risk of persistent decline and extinction. Some language planning experts believe that a clear separation of functions is necessary to allow for the development of stable bilingualism and that the continuing use of two languages within one community is dependent on each language serving a purpose which the other does not. As M.L Huffries, an expert on socio-linguistics, suggests: ‘If two languages could be used inter-changeably on all occasions by all speakers, one would be superfluous and ultimately dropped from the repertoire of languages serving the community. It is then the fulfilment of separate functions by different languages which permits persistent bilingualism within communities.’

The need for this form of established diglossia is reiterated by the guru of language planning, Professor Josuah Fishman who states in his book Reversing Language Shift that ‘If a strict domain separation becomes institutionalised such that each language is associated with a number of important but distinct domains, bilingualism may well become both universal and stabilised.’

The authors of this report agree that domain separation in the field of education is necessary for the revival of the Welsh language in North Powys and are satisfied that the time is right for Powys County Council to establish its first designated Welsh- medium secondary school or schools (Category 2A) in North Powys and further develop Welsh-medium education in its other primary and secondary schools. Welsh-medium schools provide an environment where the normal language of formal and informal activities is Welsh. This ethos provides an opportunity for children and young people to fully develop their bilingual skills and confidence, especially those from non Welsh speaking homes.

Traditionally the Welsh language has been a predominant feature of most secondary schools in North Powys, with many providing Welsh-medium teaching which has enabled pupils to fully develop their bilingual skills. This is a sound basis for the

39 establishment of a Welsh-medium school or schools at locations which would be equally accessible to pupils living in the wider catchment areas of the current secondary schools.

A key consideration in the planning process for the development of Welsh-medium education is the nature of the linguistic balance between Welsh and English, and the intensity of Welsh-medium input required in order for learners to reach fluency in both languages over time. The Welsh Government’s Welsh-medium Education Strategy states - ‘It is generally accepted that at least around 70% of curricular time should be through the medium of Welsh if learners are to acquire a sufficient sound command of the language to enable them to use it across a broad range of contexts with confidence and fluency. The Welsh Assembly Government accepts this guiding principle for Welsh-medium schools at primary and secondary level.’

It is also generally accepted that creating the right ethos and language environment is crucial to developing young people’s bilingual skills and that these skills develop best if used daily. In a Welsh-medium secondary school, Welsh is the official language of everyday use and as such aims to create an ethos that promotes the Welsh language and generates positive attitudes towards it. A school of this nature seeks to foster, as naturally as possible, a Welsh environment both in terms of language usage and the awareness of culture and heritage. It also encourages pupils and staff to make increasing use of Welsh at the appropriate level as a medium of informal communication. It gives pupils, whatever their background, a daily opportunity to develop their Welsh language skills in both formal and informal situations in order to become increasingly fluent and confident.

At the moment, Welsh language pupils are in a minority in half of the North Powys dual-stream schools and creating the kind of ethos and environment found in Welsh- medium schools would be a major challenge if not impossible task for these schools.

iv) Evidence of parental demand

In April 2014, the Local Authority carried out to a survey asking the views of parents of pupils attending Welsh-medium primary education across Powys at the time for their views on the type of secondary provision they would like their child to attend. Whilst 50% of respondents stated that they would prefer for their children to be educated in a Welsh-medium stream in a dual stream school, a sizeable proportion (42%) said that they would prefer for their children to attend a Welsh-medium secondary school.

Whilst the greater proportion of parents stated that their preference was to maintain the status quo, this is likely to be a reflection of their experience of the current dual stream provision in the primary and secondary sectors in Powys. In this context, the fact that 42% of parents stated that their preference would be a Welsh-medium

40 secondary school is notable, and is evidence of demand for a type of Welsh-medium secondary provision which is currently not available in Powys.

Another survey to identify the demand for a designated Welsh-medium secondary school in north east Powys was carried out by Mudiad Addysg Gymraeg Gogledd Ddwyrain Powys prior to the Local Authority’s survey, in April 2011. This survey found that parents of 450 children wanted them to be educated in a designated Welsh-medium secondary school.

One feature of both of these surveys is that a large number of parents showed a lack of knowledge about the nature and linguistic outcomes of a Welsh-medium secondary school. This has been the experience in other parts of Wales, but has been overcome by a rigorous marketing and information sharing campaign outlining the advantages of bilingualism and Welsh-medium education. Evidence from other parts of Wales suggests that once parents know more about these benefits, they invariably opt for Welsh-medium education.

It is worth noting that during the recent informal discussions that took place across North Powys, information about bilingual education and the advantages of bilingual education was generally well received by parents and pupils alike. However, many parents showed a lack of understanding about the nature and advantages of a Category 2A school, which resulted in the proliferation of many negative and misleading comments. Responses to some of the concerns raised are provided below.

Concern Response Category 2A schools are There is no evidence anywhere in Wales where divisive, would split Category 2A schools have been established to communities, would lead to support the view that they cause divisions and ‘segregation’ and ‘language tensions in communities. There is ample evidence apartheid’ of children who attend different secondary schools still socialising with friends in the local community, playing rugby, football, hockey and netball in the same team and joining together for YFC and other community activities despite attending different secondary schools.

Inferior education is There is no evidence that this is the case. provided in Welsh-medium Information provided elsewhere in this report shows secondary schools that attainment levels of pupils in Welsh-medium schools compare extremely well with those in English-medium schools.

Pupils find it difficult to Welsh-medium secondary schools allow pupils to transfer from Welsh-medium develop their fluency in both Welsh and English, to English-medium studies and there is no reason why pupils can’t transfer to in University English-medium studies at University if they so wished. It is worth noting that there are more courses and modules available through the medium of Welsh at Universities in Wales now than ever before. Also, the Welsh Government’s definition for a Category 2A school states that 80% of subjects should be provided through the medium of Welsh, however the definition does allow for some subjects, such as maths and science to be offered through the medium of English. Some Category 2A schools also offer some other English-medium subjects in the sixth form.

Supporting the local This point is noted. However evidence from across secondary school is more Wales suggests that Welsh-medium schools are important than the language popular schools and that there is usually a growth in of education pupil numbers and an increase in demand for Welsh-medium primary education following the establishment of such schools.

Concerns about travel Concerns relating to travel distance are very real distance to a Category 2A concerns for parents, and will need to taken into school consideration in any future work related to the establishment of Category 2A schools in Powys. Due to the rural nature of North Powys and the large geographic area covered, it is acknowledged that it would not be possible for one school to serve the whole area.

Non-Welsh speaking These concerns are noted. However, the vast parents concerned about majority of pupils who attend Welsh-medium their ability to support their schools today come from homes where Welsh is not children with homework spoken and their attainment levels compare very well with pupils from homes where Welsh is spoken. The intake of pupils into Welsh-medium schools is becoming more diverse in nature, with more and more pupils coming from a wider range of social and cultural backgrounds. There are many ways parents can support their children with their school work even if they don’t speak Welsh themselves.

Pupils can make use of their dual literacy skills to translate their homework for their parents if they wish, which allows them to discuss the tasks in English. This process of switching between one language and the other is described by linguists as ‘trans-languaging’, and this enhances the user’s competencies in both languages and reinforces cognitive ability. Schools also provide homework support for pupils.

Concern that attending a Whilst a substantial proportion of the curriculum in Welsh-medium secondary Welsh-medium schools is delivered through the school would hinder their medium of Welsh, the pupils’ proficiency in both overall academic languages is also paramount to the school’s overall development and their aims. External examination results in English as a English language subject are consistently high and compare proficiency favourably with results in English-medium schools. Estyn published a thematic report in June 2014 entitled English in Key Stages 2 and 3 which said ‘In Welsh-medium schools, the performance of pupils in English in Key Stage 2 has improved over the last five years and is about two percentage points better than the performance of pupils in Enlgish-medium schools…In Key Stage 3 in Welsh-medium secondary school, the performance of pupils in English has also been consistently better than in English-medium schools by some five percentage points.’ Attainment levels in Welsh-medium schools across all key stages also compare extremely well with English-medium schools as can be seen later in this report.

English-medium pupils These concerns are noted, however any move to would not be able to attend establish a Category 2A school in North Powys their local secondary school would need to be planned carefully to ensure the minimum level of disruption for pupils currently in the system. Any move to establish a Category 2A school could include the establishment of a late immersion (‘trochi’) programme, which would enable pupils educated through the medium of English in the primary sector to move to the Welsh-medium sector for their secondary education.

Whilst it is fair to say that the majority of those that took part in the discussion sessions with communities or provided written comments were in favour of keeping the current dual-stream model, it must also be noted that there was a sizeable minority in favour of establishing Category 2A schools in North Powys. v) Educational standards

Research over many years has shown that Welsh-medium schools are effective in developing pupils’ bilingual and dual literacy skills. This is reflected in the tremendous growth in the number of Welsh-medium schools over the last 50 years, especially since the early 70s. The fact that the demand for Welsh-medium education continues to grow is in itself an indication of their success.

An analysis of examination results in Wales shows that pupils in Welsh-medium schools continue to perform consistently well in all subjects across the curriculum. The following tables compare the percentage of pupils in Welsh-medium education and English-medium education gaining the expected levels of achievement at the end of Key Stage 3 (age 14) and in GCSE examinations in recent years.

The table below – based on Welsh Government statistics - shows the average percentage of pupils achieving the expected level or above (level 5+) by core subject (except for Welsh as a first or second language) at the end of Key Stage 3 over the last five years in both Welsh-medium and English-medium secondary schools:

Percentage of pupils achieving Level 5+ or above by core subject at the end of Key Stage 3 Year Core Subject Welsh Medium English Medium 2011 English 82 76 Mathematics 83 78 Science 85 81 2012 English 85 79 Mathematics 83 81 Science 89 84 2013 English 88 83 Mathematics 88 84 Science 92 87 2014 English 91 87 Mathematics 91 87 Science 94 91 2015 English 92 89 Mathematics 93 89 Science 96 93

The table above shows that pupils in Welsh-medium schools have consistently performed well compared to English-medium schools in all of the core subjects at the end of Key Stage 3.

The table below shows the percentage of pupils achieving the Level 2 threshold including a GCSE grade in A*-C in English or Welsh first language and Mathematics in both Welsh-medium and English-medium secondary schools over the last five years.

Percentage of pupils achieving the level 2 threshold including a GCSE grade in A*-C in English or Welsh first language and Mathematics Year Welsh Medium English Medium 2010 56.4 47.9 2011 59.6 48.3 2012 59.8 49.6 2013 61.2 51.8 2014 63.3 55.1

Again, the table above clearly shows that attainment levels in Welsh-medium schools compare very well with English-medium schools. Of particular interest is the fact that attainment levels in English as a subject has been consistently higher in Welsh-medium schools at KS3 and in GCSE examinations over the last five years. These statistics reinforce the findings of the Estyn report mentioned above and dispel the doubts that many parents have about the development of their children’s English language skills in Welsh-medium schools.

In November 2014 Estyn published a report entitled - Linguistic progression and standards of Welsh in ten bilingual schools (November 2014), which looked at the linguistic progression of pupils in KS4 in terms of studying Welsh as a first language and other qualifications through the medium of Welsh in bilingual secondary schools. The report states that only in a third of bilingual schools do most pupils who study Welsh follow two or more additional GCSEs through the medium of Welsh. It also states that those pupils who follow the highest number of GCSEs through the medium of Welsh in addition to Welsh as a first language have the greatest ability to discuss and write in Welsh. In the schools with low proportions of pupils following GCSEs through Welsh, the majority of pupils are not confident either in speaking or writing Welsh because there are insufficient opportunities for them to use the language across all subjects.

Concern is often expressed about the English language skills of pupils attending Welsh-medium schools. As would be expected, a very substantial proportion of the

45 curriculum in Welsh-medium schools is delivered through the medium of Welsh but the pupils’ proficiency in both languages is also paramount to their overall aims.

It should be remembered that Welsh-medium schools do not exclude the English language in any way. On the contrary, the English language plays a prominent part in learning, and developing English and Welsh language skills are seen as extremely important disciplines. Welsh-medium teaching makes use of the English language, for example through providing technical terms in both languages and making use of English-medium computer programmes, apps and text books. This approach enhances the pupils’ learning and dual literacy skills. Examination Boards ensure that a copy of every English examination paper is available during Welsh-medium external examinations and translations of unfamiliar terms are given in lessons. In Welsh-medium schools (Category 2A), some subjects such as science and mathematics are available through the medium of Welsh or English, offering a choice for pupils. Many Welsh-medium schools also provide a range of English-medium extra-curricular experiences for their pupils, such as participation in public speaking competitions, drama and musical performances.

As noted above, external examination results in English as a subject in Welsh- medium schools are consistently high and compare favourably with results in English-medium schools. Estyn published a thematic report in June 2014 entitled English in Key Stages 2 and 3 which said - ‘In Welsh medium schools, the performance of pupils in English in Key Stage 2 has improved over the last five years and is about two percentage points better than the performance of pupils in English- medium schools… …In Key Stage 3 in Welsh-medium secondary schools, the performance of pupils in English has also been consistently better than in English- medium schools by some five percentage points.’ vi) Financial sustainability

The four dual-stream schools in the north of the county currently receive £368,000 as a dual-stream language uplift, with the allowance being flexible to account for changes with the number of subjects being delivered through both languages in the school. However despite the level and flexibility in funding the provision does not succeed in providing robust linguistic continuity for Welsh-medium pupils.

The curriculum provision through a Category 2A Welsh-medium school, at a school level, would be more efficient than in a dual-stream school because offering 80% of the curriculum solely or mainly through the medium of Welsh and operating the school as a single stream would allow the school to run with sustainable class sizes at a lower cost. The provision in both languages with smaller class sizes in a dual- stream system is far more expensive at a school level. It also becomes increasingly more difficult to provide Welsh-medium courses, and in some cases English Medium course, in the dual-stream model as pupils progress from Key Stage 3 to Key Stage

4 and then into the sixth form. The small size of both or one of the streams at these stages does not allow the school to achieve viable sized option groups and the breadth of the curriculum offered through the chosen language is either restricted or unviable in terms of both financial and educational considerations . The inevitable consequence of this financial pressure is the reduction in the smaller Welsh-medium provision which does not provide equity to those Welsh medium learners who may want to continue with their Welsh-medium studies at a higher level.

As noted above, the potential doubling of the number of teaching groups in order to offer a subject in both languages is a drain on resources which does not exist in single language Welsh-medium or English-medium schools. When a Welsh-medium or English-medium teaching group is not viable in dual-stream schools, a course is often delivered bilingually which not only requires exceptional skills from the teacher but is equally unfair on Welsh-medium and English-medium pupils alike. The dual- stream model can therefore disadvantage both Welsh and English speaking pupils as the organisation of the school is over-dependent on the split in pupil numbers within a single year group, and is often compounded in smaller sized secondary schools. As schools are required to provide a greater choice of courses for their pupils, within a challenging financial climate, maintaining and increasing the size of Welsh-medium classes and improving the bilingual skills of pupils will remain a priority but also a challenge for North Powys schools if the schools configuration remains in its current format. .

A more detailed financial analysis in relation to the model would need to be carried out as part of the next stage of the project to determine the most suitable location for any Category 2A school or schools, however there can be no doubt that a Welsh- medium school is better equipped to deliver contemporary curricular requirements to young people through the medium of Welsh, and would be able to do so with greater economy and efficiency by making better use of resources and improving the cost effectiveness of the education system in North Powys.

5. Conclusion and Recommendations

5.1 Conclusion

Having considered in detail the current and future provision of Welsh-medium education in North Powys, the national and local educational context and the advantages and disadvantages of the various models of delivering Welsh-medium education, this report has come to the conclusion that a Category 2A School is the preferred model in terms of ensuring robust linguistic continuity and providing equality of provision for Welsh-medium pupils. Information provided and considered in relation to Welsh-medium pupil numbers in both the primary and secondary sectors in North Powys support this view, and provide a sound baseline for the establishment of this type of school or schools in North Powys.

The Welsh Government’s Welsh-medium Education Strategy acknowledges that the linguistic outcomes of the different types of models of delivering Welsh-medium education vary significantly. The strategy makes an interesting observation about the link between the intensity of the provision and the development of competent bilingualism and confidence in language use, for example ‘Where a pupil from a Welsh-speaking background attends a bilingual school, a balanced curriculum through the medium of Welsh and English can be effective in ensuring fluency in both languages……However, where learners’ linguistic skills in Welsh are not reinforced by family or community, they are unlikely to achieve full fluency and confidence in Welsh when learning in a bilingual setting. Bilingual provision, therefore, does not always ensure that an individual becomes a bilingual speaker.’

As outlined in section 3.2, the number of subjects provided through the medium of Welsh varies greatly between the four dual-stream schools in North Powys, and the number of subjects available through the medium of Welsh decreases significantly as pupils move through the school, due to the relatively small number of Welsh- medium pupils in each school. Whilst acknowledging Powys County Council’s commitment to develop Welsh-medium provision across the whole of North Powys, and the efforts of individual schools to maximise the Welsh-medium opportunities available to pupils, it is clear that the current dual-stream arrangement does not provide equal opportunity for Welsh-medium pupils in North Powys

Re-organising education in any shape or form is a highly emotive issue. The instinctive tendency from interested parties is to defend the status quo even if there are compelling reasons why in many cases change is both necessary and inevitable. During the informal discussions held in North Powys on the need for a Bilingual Category 2A school or schools for example, many stakeholders made their feelings abundantly clear both for and against the option, in face-to-face sessions and in

48 writing and we thank all of those who contributed for their sincere and forthright comments and observations.

This report, whilst of course recognising the depth of feeling on both sides of the argument, ultimately has to draw its own conclusions based on professional judgement and evidence gathered during the review process. The recommendations boil down to a simple choice of whether the current dual-stream model is the most effective way of developing Welsh-language provision or whether establishing a designated Bilingual Category 2A school or schools provide a better foundation for developing the bilingual skills of learners in North Powys.

After careful consideration, the report has come to the conclusion that the way forward in terms of developing Welsh-medium provision in North Powys is to move towards the model of delivering secondary Welsh-medium education via the Category 2A model. Due to the wide geographical area covered by North Powys, it is likely that two such schools would be needed in order to serve the whole area.

Although we have heard passionate arguments in favour of maintaining the dual- stream model, including its inclusive nature and the way it reflects the linguistic characteristics of North Powys communities, we have not been convinced however that it is the most effective method of developing fully competent bilingual young people and is the model which makes best use of public money, for the reasons outlined below:

• Dual-stream schools are not as effective as designated Welsh-medium schools in enabling learners (especially those from non-Welsh speaking homes) to become fully bilingual because they do not provide the intensity of language immersion that is required to become fully competent in both Welsh and English; • In dual-stream schools the English language will inevitably be the predominant language in the majority of formal and informal settings which impedes the development of Welsh language skills, usage and confidence; • International research shows that minority languages can only grow if the environment is conducive to the normalisation of lesser used languages. The experience of the minority Welsh language speakers in most of the dual-stream schools is contrary to this theory; • Financial restrictions make it extremely difficult for dual-stream schools to provide Welsh-medium courses in Key Stage4 and in the sixth form and it curtails subject choices, which impinges on the rights of pupils to receive fully Welsh-medium education; • The doubling of the number of teaching groups in order to offer a subject in both languages is a drain on resources and is unviable in the current financial climate, especially in smaller sized secondary schools;

• Dual-stream schools, due to low numbers, find it extremely difficult to set pupils in core subjects according to ability and as a result pupils often find themselves in mixed ability groups which can hinder their progress and achievement; • Dual-stream schools often find it difficult to attract teachers, particularly in some specialised subjects, due to the fact that their lesson plans and notes have to be prepared in two languages which many find time-consuming and laborious; • The financial uplift to support Welsh-medium education in dual-stream schools is unfair on pupils in English-medium education as it reduces the overall funding available for curriculum development across the whole of the county.

5.2 Recommendations

1. That Powys County Council adopts the principle that a Category 2A school is the preferred model in terms of delivering Welsh-medium secondary education in North Powys.

2. That the Council moves to establish one or more Category 2A schools in North Powys.

3. That further work is carried out to determine the most appropriate location(s) for these schools.

4. That the implementation of any decision to establish one or more Category 2A schools is phased in order to ensure as little disruption as possible for secondary pupils already in the system.

5. That the Council considers the introduction of a late immersion (‘trochi’) programme in conjunction with any move to establish one or more Category 2A schools in North Powys.

6. That the Council also considers how to improve access to Welsh-medium provision in the primary sector, to ensure a further increase in the number of pupils benefitting from Welsh-medium education.

Appendix A – Summary of Welsh language categories for secondary schools

As described in the Welsh Government document, ‘ Defining Schools according to Welsh-medium Provision ’, published in 2007.

Category Description

1 Welsh -medium Secondary School

All subjects are taught through the medium of Welsh to all pupils.

2A Bilingual Secondary School

At least 80% of subjects (excluding Welsh and English) are taught only through the medium of Welsh to all pupils. One or two subjects are taught to some pupils in English or in both language.

2B Bilingual Secondary School

At least 80% of subjects (excluding Welsh and English) are taught through the medium of Welsh but are also taught through the medium of English.

2C Bilingual Secondary School

50 – 79% of subjects (excluding Welsh and English) are taught through the medium of Welsh but are also taught through the medium of English.

2Ch Bilingual Secondary School

All subjects (excluding Welsh and English) are taught to all pupils using both languages.

3 Predominantly English medium secondary school with significant use of Welsh

Both languages are used in teaching with 20 – 49% of subjects taught through the medium of Welsh. All subjects would normally also be taught through the medium of English.

4 Predominantly English Medium secondary school

Pupils are mainly taught through the medium of English. One or two subjects may be taught as an option through the medium of Welsh or using both languages.

Appendix B – Subject provision in North Powys Secondary Schools 2014-15 (Excluding Welsh and English)

Ysgol Bro Hyddgen Welsh -medium English -medium Bilingual

Year 7 Art; Games; Art; French; Geography; History; Geography; History; Total number of Literacy; Mathematics; Literacy; Mathematics; subjects: 12 Music; RE; Science; Music; RE; Science; Skills; Technology Skills; Technology

Total: 11 Total: 11

Year 8 Art; Games; Art; French; Geography; History; Geography; History; Total number of IT; Mathematics; IT; Mathematics; subjects: 12 Music; RE; Science; Music; RE; Science; Skills; Technology Skills; Technology

Total: 11 Total: 11

Year 9 Art; Drama; Games; Art; Drama; French; Maths Geography; History; Geography; History; Total number of IT; Music; RE; IT; Music; RE; subjects: 12 Science; Technology Science; Technology

Total: 10 Total: 10 Total: 1

Year 10 Agriculture; Games; French; RE Art and Design; Child History; Maths; Development; Drama; Total number of Product Design; Welsh Geography; Graphics; subjects: 19 Bacc. History; IT; Mathematics; Media

Studies; Music; PE; Science; Textiles

Total: 6 Total: 2 Total: 13

Year 11 Agriculture; Games; Coleg Powys; French; Art; Business Studies; Geography; History; Media Studies Child Development; Total number of Music; Product Drama; Geography; subjects: 21 Design; RE; Resistant History; IT; Materials; Mathematics; PE;

Welsh Bacc. Science; Textiles; Welsh Bacc.

Total: 9 Total: 3 Total: 12

Ysgol Uwchradd Welsh -medium English -medium Bilingual Caereinion

Year 7 Art; Biology; Art; Biology; Chemistry; French; Chemistry; French; Total number of Games; Geography; Games; Geography; subjects: 16 History; IT; Library; History; IT; Library; Mathematics; Music; Mathematics; Music;

PE; PSE; RE; PE; Physics; PSE; RE; Technology Technology

Total: 15 Total: 16

Year 8 Art; Biology; Art; Biology; Chemistry; French; Chemistry; French; Total number of Games; Geography; Games; Geography; subjects: 17 History; IT; Library; History; IT; Library; Mathematics; Music; Mathematics; Music;

Numeracy; PE; PSE; Numeracy; PE; RE; Technology Physics; PSE; RE; Technology

Total: 16 Total: 17

Year 9 Art; Biology; Art; Biology; Chemistry; Games; Chemistry; French; Total number of Geography; History; Games; Geography; subjects: 18 IT; Library; History; IT; Library; Mathematics; Music; Mathematics; Music;

Numeracy; PE; PSE; Numeracy; PE; RE; Technology Physics; PSE; RE; Spanish; Technology

Total: 15 Total: 18

Year 10 Art; Biology; Art; Biology; Business Agriculture; Chemistry; Games; Studies; Catering; Construction; Total number of Geography; History; Chemistry; French; Music subjects: 21 IT; Mathematics; PE; Games; Geography; PSE; RE (Short); RE; History; IT;

Technology Mathematics; PE; Physics; PSE; RE (Short); RE; Spanish; Technology

Total: 13 Total: 18 Total: 3

Year 11 Art; Biology; Art; Biology; Business Agriculture; Chemistry; Games; Studies; Catering; Construction; Health & Total number of Geography; History; Chemistry; Games; SC; Music subjects: 22 Mathematics; IT; PE; Geography; History; Mathematics; Inform

PSE; RE (Short); RE; Education; IT; PE; Technology Physics; PSE; RE (Short); RE; Spanish; Technology

Total: 13 Total: 18 Total: 4

Llanfyllin High Welsh -medium English -medium Bilingual School

Year 7 Drama; French; Art; Drama; French; PE; Technology Geography; History; Geography; History; Total number of IT; Mathematics; IT; Mathematics; subjects: 13 Music; PSE; RE; Music; PE; PSE; RE; Science Science; Technology

Total: 10 Total: 13 Total: 2

Year 8 Drama; French; Art; Drama; French; PE; Technology Geography; History; Geography; History; Total number of IT; Learning Skills; IT; Learning Skills; subjects: 14 Mathematics; Music; Mathematics; Music; PSE; RE; Science PSE; PE; RE; Science;

Technology

Total: 11 Total: 14 Total: 2

Year 9 Business Studies; Art; Business Studies; PE; Technology Drama; French; Drama; French; Total number of Geography; History; Geography; History; subjects: 15 Learning Skills; Learning Skills; Mathematics; Music; Mathematics; Music;

IT; PSE; RE; Science IT; PE; PSE; RE; Science; Technology

Total: 12 Total: 15 Total: 2

Year 10 Biology; Chemistry; Art; Biology; Business Engineering; PE; French; Games; Studies; Catering; Technology Total number of Geography; History; Chemistry; subjects: 25 IT; Mathematics; Class.Civilisations; Physics; PSE; RE; French; Games;

Science Geography; History; IT; Landbased Studies; Learning Skills; Mathematics; Media Studies; Music; Performing Arts; Physics; PSE; RE; Science; Sport;

Total: 12 Total: 22 Total: 3

Year 11 Biology; Chemistry; Art; Biology; Engineering; Music; French; Games; Chemistry; Class. Sport; Technology Total number of Geography; History; Civilisations; French; subjects: 24 IT; Mathematics; Geography; Health & Physics; PSE; RE; SC; History; Hosp. &

Science Catering; IT; Landbased Studies; Learning Skills; Mathematics; Media Studies; PE; Performing Arts; Physics; PSE; RE; Science;

Total: 12 Total: 24 Total: 4

Llanidloes High Welsh -medium English -medium Bilingual School

Year 7 Art; Geography; Art; French; Games; History; IT; Geography; History; Total number of Mathematics; Music; IT; Mathematics; subjects: 12 PSE; RE; Science Music; PE; PSE; RE; Science

Total: 9 Total: 12

Year 8 Art; Geography; Art; French; Games; History; IT; Geography; History; Total number of Mathematics; Music; IT; Mathematics; subjects: 12 PSE; RE; Science Music; PE; PSE; RE; Science

Total: 9 Total: 12

Year 9 Art; Geography; Art; French; Games; History; IT; Geography; History; Total number of Mathematics; Music; IT; Mathematics; subjects: 13 PSE; RE; Science Music; PE; PSE; RE; Science; Technology

Total: 9 Total: 13

Year 10 Geography; Art; Business Studies; Mathematics; PSE; Coleg Powys; Drama; Science; Welsh Bacc Food; French; Games; Geography; Graphics;

Total number of Health & SC; History; subjects: 23 IT; Leisure & Tourism; Materials; Mathematics; Media Studies; Music; PE; PSE; Science; Spanish; Systems; Welsh Bacc

Total: 5 Total: 23

Year 11 Geography; Art; Business Studies; History Mathematics; PSE; Coleg Powys; Drama; Total number of Science; Welsh Bacc Food; French; Games; subjects: 24 Geography; Graphics; Health & SC; History;

IT; Leisure & Tourism; Materials; Mathematics; Media Studies; Music; PE; PSE; Science; Skills Spanish; Systems; Welsh Bacc

Total: 5 Total: 24 Total: 1

Newtown High Welsh -medium English -medium Bilingual School (Newtown Campus)

Year 7 Art; D&T; Home Economics; French; Total number of Geography; History; subjects: 15 IT; Maths; Music; PE; PSRE; Reading; RE; Reasoning; Science

Total: 15

Year 8 Art; D&T; Home Economics; French; Total number of Geography; History; subjects: 15 IT; Maths; Music; PE; PSRE; Reading; RE; Reasoning; Science

Total: 15

Year 9 Art; D&T; Home Economics; French;

Total number of Geography; History; subjects: 15 IT; Maths; Music; PE; PSRE; Reading; RE; Reasoning; Science

Total: 15

Year 10 Agriculture; Art; Biology; Business Total number of Studies; Catering; subjects: 27 Chemistry; Drama; Engineering; French; Geography; History; Home Cooking / Money and Finance; Health & SC; Interior Design; IT; Leisure & Tourism; Maths; Media; Music; Performing Arts; PE; Physics; RE; Resistant Materials; Science; Welsh Bacc.; Work Skills

Total: 27

Year 11 Agriculture; Art; Biology; Business Total number of Studies; Catering; subjects: 27 Chemistry; Drama; Engineering; French; Geography; History; Home Cooking / Money and Finance; Health & SC; Interior Design; IT; Leisure & Tourism; Maths; Media; Music; Performing Arts; PE; Physics; RE; Resistant Materials; Science; Welsh Bacc.; Work Skills

Total: 27

Wel shpool High Welsh -medium English -medium Bilingual School

Year 7 Art; Drama; French; Geography; History; IT; Mathematics; Total number of Music; PE; PSE; subjects: 13 Religious Education; Science; Technology

Total: 13

Year 8 Art; Drama; French; Geography; History; IT; Mathematics; Total number of Music; PE; PSE; subjects: 13 Religious Education; Science; Technology

Total: 13

Year 9 Art; Drama; French; Geography; History; IT; Mathematics; Total number of Music; PE; PSE; subjects: 14 Religious Education; Science; Spanish; Technology

Total: 14

Year 10 Art; Biology; Business BTEC; Car Maintenance BTEC; Total number of Chemistry; Childcare subjects: 28 BTEC; Construction BTEC; Double Science; Drama; Engineering BTEC; Ethics; French; Games; Geography; Health & SC BTEC; History; Hosp. & Catering BTEC; IT BTEC; Mathematics; Music; PE; PE BTEC; Physics; PSE; Science BTEC; Spanish; Systems & Control; Work Skills BTEC

Total: 28

Year 11 Art; Biology; Business BTEC; Car Maintenance BTEC; Total number of Chemistry; Childcare subjects: 30 BTEC; Construction BTEC; Double Science; Drama; Engineering BTEC; Ethics; French;

Games; Geography; Health & SC BTEC; History; Hosp. & Catering BTEC; IT BTEC; Mathematics; Music; PE; PE BTEC; Physics; PSE; Resistant Materials; Science BTEC; Spanish; Systems & Control; Textiles; Work Skills BTEC

Total: 30

Appendix C – Subjects taught in the Sixth Form in North Powys Schools 2014/15

Welsh-medium English-medium Bilingual Ysgol Bro Hyddgen Welsh Art & Design – Art & Design; Biology; Graphics; English Business Studies; Literature; French; Law Chemistry; Product Design; Drama; Electronics; Environmental Studies; Geography; Government & Politics; Health & Social Care; History; ICT; Mathematics; Media; Music; Music Technology; PE; Physics; Religious Studies; Science – Applied; Sociology; Travel and Tourism

Ysgol Uwchradd Biology; Geography; Accounting; Biology; Art & Design; Caereinion History; Welsh First Business – Applied; Mathematics; Language; Welsh Design & Technology; Music; Chemistry; PE Second Language Drama and Theatre Studies; Engineering; English Literature; French; Geography; History; Media Studies; Technology; Psychology; Religious Studies; Spanish

Llanfyllin High Biology; Geography; Art & Design; Art & Design & Technology; School History; Welsh First Design – Textiles; Mathematics; Language Biology; Chemistry; Mathematics – Further; Classical Civilisation; Drama & Theatre Studies; English Literature; French; Geography; History; ICT; Media Studies; Photography; Physical Education; Physics; Psychology

Llanidloes High Art; Biology; Business; School Chemistry; Design & Technology; English Language & Literature; Geography; Government & Politics;

Health & Social Care; History; ICT; Law; Mathematics; Mathematics – Further; Media Studies; Music Technology; Performing Arts; PE; Physics; Psychology; Travel & Tourism

Newtown High Art & Design; Biology; School Chemistry; Computing; Drama & Theatre Studies; Engineering; English Language & Literature; French; Geography; Health & SC; ICT; Law; Mathematics; Media Studies; Music; Music Technology; PE; Physics; Religious Studies; Science – Applied

Welshpool High Art & Design; Biology; School Business Studies; Chemistry; Design and Technology; Drama and Theatre Studies; Engineering;; English Language; French; Geography; Government & Politics; Health & Social Care; History; ICT; Mathematics; Media Studies; Music; Philosophy; Photography; Physical Education; Physics; Psychology; Welsh Second Language

Appendix D – The Welsh Language in North Powys

The table below shows the percentage of Welsh speakers in each Electoral Division in North Powys based on 2001 and 2011 Census data. Due to boundary changes in a few wards, particularly in the Llanrheadr-ym-Mochnant, Llanwddyn and Llansilin Electoral Districts, direct comparisons can only be made with a degree of caution in these areas.

Electoral Division % Welsh Speakers 2001 % Welsh Speakers 2011 Banwy 59 56 Berriew 14 10 Blaen Hafren 27 23 Caersws 28 26 Churchstoke 7 4 Dolforwyn 14 14 Forden 14 11 Glantwymyn 60 58 Guilsfield 16 16 Kerry 11 13 Llanbrynmair 53 48 Llandinam 16 14 Llandrinio 13 11 Llandysilio 11 11 Llanfair Caereinion 38 36 Llanfihangel 52 43 Llanfyllin 39 34 Llanidloes 18 16 Llanrhaeadr-ym-Mochnant 54 x Llanrhaeadr-ym- 39 34 Mochnant/Llansilin Llanwddyn x 43 Llansantffraid 21 20 Machynlleth 54 52 Meifod 24 24 Montgomery 11 12 Newtown Central 16 15 Newtown East 14 12 Newtown Llanllwchaiarn 16 15 North Newtown Llanllwchaiarn 16 17 West Newtown South 11 15

Rhiwcynon 23 22 Trewern 10 15 Welshpool Castle 13 10 Welshpool Gungrog 13 12 Welshpool Llanerchyddol 15 14