VU Research Portal Floods, flood management and climate change in the Netherlands Olsthoorn, A.A.; Tol, R.S.J. 2001 document version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Link to publication in VU Research Portal citation for published version (APA) Olsthoorn, A. A., & Tol, R. S. J. (2001). Floods, flood management and climate change in the Netherlands. (IVM Report; No. R-01/04). Dept. of Economics and Technology. 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Tol Floods, flood management and climate change in The Netherlands Edited by A.A. Olsthoorn and R.S.J. Tol Reportnumber R-01/04 February, 2001 IVM Institute for Environmental Studies Vrije Universiteit De Boelelaan 1115 1081 HV Amsterdam The Netherlands Tel. ++31-20-4449 555 Fax. ++31-20-4449 553 E-mail: [email protected] www.vu.nl/ivm ISBN 90-5383-762-0 Copyright © 2001, Institute for Environmental Studies All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopy- ing, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the copyright holder. Acknowledgements The research was done in the context of the SIRCH (social and institutional responses to climate change) project, initiated and partly funded by the European Commission DG Research and Development (former DGXII) under contract nº ENV4 CT97 0447. The quality and relevance of our research was greatly enhanced by the many discussions in the SIRCH project. Tom Downing masterfully led the endeavour. Karen Bakker, Emily Crook, Alberto Garrido, Consuelo Giansante, John Handmer, Eva Iglesias, Wietze Lise, Leandro del Moral, and Edmund Penning-Rowsell provided helpful comments. Richard Tol gratefully acknowledges support by the US National Science Foundation through the Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change (SBR-9521914), and the Michael Otto Foundation. Floods, flood management and climate change in The Netherlands i Contents Abstract v 1. Introduction 1 1.1 River Flood Management and Climate Change 1 1.2 Methodological Preambles 2 1.3 The structure of this volume 3 1.4 References 4 2. Institutional framework for the management of the rivers Rhine and Meuse in the Netherlands – An overview 5 2.1 Introduction 5 2.2 Physical geography of the Netherlands in brief 5 2.2.1 Introduction 5 2.2.2 The map 5 2.2.3 Hydrological systems in the Netherlands 7 2.2.4 The water budget 10 2.3 The water system: functions, resources and risks 10 2.3.1 Introduction 10 2.3.2 Flood risk 11 2.3.3 Water for drinking 12 2.3.4 Inland shipping 16 2.3.5 Flushing stagnant water bodies 17 2.3.6 Other functions of the rivers 17 2.4 Water management in the Netherlands 18 2.4.1 Introduction 18 2.4.2 Legal framework for water management 19 2.4.3 Structure of water management 20 2.4.4 Water policy planning 24 2.4.5 International influences 25 2.4.6 Trends in institutional development 27 2.5 Flood risk management in the Netherlands 27 2.5.1 Introduction 27 2.5.2 Legal framework and administrative structure for flood risk management 28 2.5.3 Development of flood risk management 28 2.5.4 Early warning systems 36 2.5.5 Disaster management 37 2.5.6 Trends in institutional development 39 2.6 References 39 3. The evolution of acceptable risk 43 3.1 Introduction 43 3.2 1953 – 1974: A slow start and a confusing end 44 3.3 1974 – 1993: How to integrate and decentralise? 47 ii Institute for Environmental Studies 3.4 The nineties: How to cope with uncertainties? 50 3.5 Conclusions 54 3.6 References 57 4. Games of Flood Control 59 4.1 Introduction 59 4.2 The early days of flood control: Establishing a central authority 59 4.3 Centralised flood management 63 4.4 Conclusions 65 4.5 Reference 65 5. Planning and decision-making related to the Maaswerken project 67 5.1 Problem definition and methodology 67 5.2 Some geographical and hydrological facts 68 5.3 The development of the Maaswerken project 70 5.4 The Maaswerken project: organisation, stakeholders and procedures 75 5.4.1 Central project organisation Maaswerken 75 5.4.2 Planning process and procedures 75 5.4.3 Project Grensmaas 77 5.4.4 Project Zandmaas/Maasroute 79 5.5 Issues at stake 80 5.5.1 Objectives of the project 81 5.5.2 Establishment of a public/private partnership 82 5.5.3 Co-operation between authorities 83 5.5.4 International co-operation 84 5.5.5 Level of local public support 85 5.6 Conclusions 86 5.7 References 88 6. Nature or Neighbour in Hell’s Angle: Stakeholder Responses to Future Flood Management Plans for the Rhine River Basin 89 6.1 Introduction 89 6.2 Pre-modernity, modernity, post modernity 90 6.3 Helhoek in three domains 92 6.4 The flood plains option 94 6.5 The green option 94 6.6 First reactions to the green option 96 6.7 The Green River 97 6.8 Invasion of Helhoek 99 6.9 In my backyard 100 6.10 Social cohesion at stake 101 6.11 Social cohesion against interventions 104 6.12 The Polder Model 106 6.13 Abbink’s backyard 107 6.14 Structural conflicts 108 6.15 Conclusions 109 6.16 Recommendations 111 Floods, flood management and climate change in The Netherlands iii 6.17 References 112 Appendix 6.I Methodology 115 7. Scenarios for the dutch Rhine and Meuse delta: climate, floods, income and the population 117 7.1 Introduction 117 7.2 Scenarios for temperature and precipitation 117 7.3 Scenarios for changes in river discharges, and associated impacts 120 7.4 Population, technology, economy, and water management 122 7.5 Conclusions 123 7.6 References 123 8. Adapting to climate change: A case study on riverine flood risks in the Netherlands 125 Abstract 125 8.1 Introduction 125 8.2 Flood risk management and trends in water management 126 8.3 A radical plan to cope with climate change 128 8.4 Institutional response 132 8.5 Conclusion 134 8.6 References 134 9. Conclusions 137 9.1 What happened? 137 9.2 Adaptive capacity 138 iv Institute for Environmental Studies Floods, flood management and climate change in The Netherlands v Abstract Climate change may well make very high river discharges more likely in the Nether- lands. This follows from scenario calculations with models of climate and hydrology in the river basins of the rivers Rhine and Meuse. Current policies and flood protection schemes may prove not to be adequate for dealing with increased flood risks. This study looks into the ability of Dutch institutions that re- late to floods to adapt to climate change. An analysis of the contemporary history of flood risk policy making shows that institutions changed at the strategic level. The changes comply with the contextual, social trends of naturisation, integration, democrati- sation and internationalisation. Events, such as the 1953 flood catastrophe and the mid- nineties near-flood disasters, were the triggers to changes in flood management. Current flood risk strategies take account of a rise in the probability of hazardous river dis- charges, and take account of the inherently unpredictable nature of climate and river dis- charges. Implementation of these new strategies, however, encounters many operational difficul- ties, since it has concrete impacts on many areas, particularly land use planning, hitherto largely separated from water management issues. An analysis of the advancements of the Maaswerken project - a series of works along the river Meuse that should simultaneously serve the interests of flood safety, navigability, gravel extraction and nature conservation shows that, when implemented, integrated planning is not able to take account of all in- tricacies, different interests and sensitivities of the many stakeholders. Spatial planning is an area most affected. Water management should become (again) a guiding principle in spatial planning. Open planning - the substantial involvement of stakeholders in formulation of the prob- lems and their solutions - could avoid impasses in decision making. New flood risk strategies are based on extending floodplains and designating certain ar- eas for retaining water. This is at the expense of the livelihood of local communities in those areas, but it does comply with strategies to (re)create natural areas in floodplains. The reactions of the residents of a village that would be mostly affected by one such scheme, show that, if communication is careful and two-way, they have some propensity to agree with the problem analysis, and may agree on relocation, if compensated. In a rich, well-organised and technologically adept country like the Netherlands, adapta- tion to climate change may still be problematic, because project planning and implemen- tation are very complex.