Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI) Libya Cash Working Group 1 - 11 May 2021

INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGY JMMI KEY FINDINGS & CONTEXT JMMI KEY FIGURES • In an effort to inform cash-based interventions • Field staff familiar with the local market conditions identified • The cost of the MEB increased by 0.5% across Libya Data collection from 1 - 11 May 2021 and better understand market dynamics in Libya, shops representative of the general price level in their between April and May 2021 (see page 2). The MEB the Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI) was respective locations. is 12.3% higher than pre-COVID-19 levels in March 2 participating agencies created by the Libya Cash & Markets Working • At least four prices per assessed item were collected within 2020. (REACH, WFP) Group (CMWG) in June 2017. The initiative is each location. In line with the purpose of the JMMI, only 32 assessed cities led by REACH and supported by the CMWG • In east Libya, the cost of the MEB has risen by 5.4% the price of the cheapest available brand was recorded 45 assessed items members. It is funded by the Office of U.S. with cities, such as Al Marj (+14.9) and Al Bayda 634 assessed shops Bureau of Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) and the for each item. (+10.2%) experiencing price spikes. • Enumerators were trained on methodology and tools United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees • The food proportion of the MEB has decreased by EXCHANGE RATES1 (UNHCR). by REACH. Data collection was conducted through the 8.2%, driven by the decrease of items, such as onions KoBoCollect mobile application. • Markets in key urban areas across Libya are (-20%) and salt (-20%). 4.502 5.140 6.150 assessed on a monthly basis. In each location, • Following data collection, REACH compiled and cleaned all • From February - May 2021, prices for paracetamol USD/LYD USD/LYD EUR/LYD partner data, normalising prices, cross-checking outliers and field teams record prices and availability of basic rose by 41.3% and amoxocillin by 17.2%. In May official parallel market parallel market food and non-food items (NFIs) sold in local calculating the median cost of the MEB in each assessed 2021, metoclopramide was 44.7% more expensive ▼ -1.1% ▲+1.8% ▲+4.6% shops and markets. This factsheet presents an market. overview of price ranges and medians for key than in November 2020 and Vitamin B was 43.4% • Qualitative information is also gathered from local sources more expensive then October 2020. food items and NFIs in the assessed areas, as and economic experts through key informant (KI) interviews. well as the costs associated with key elements of • Parallel market cooking fuel has increased by the Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB). • REACH has extracted prices on a daily basis from the 38.1% from March - May 2021. As mentioned in the KEY MONTHLY CHANGES IN MEB website, "Open Souq" and conducted KI interviews with • REACH has also conducted analysis April 2021 factsheet, the recent monthly increase may property market professionals to better understand the Median cost of overall MEB highlighting economic vulnerability for at-risk have been due to authorities imposing a force majeure rental market in Libya. 707.2 LYD ▲ +3.17% ▲ +0.5% population groups that can be accessed through on Hariga oil field, temporarily reducing Libya's output • More details are available in the Methodology section of an interactive dashboard. by 280,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 19th - 26th of Food items Hygiene items Cooking fuel.9 the Appendix. 2 April. ▼-0.4% ▲ +2.7% ▲ +16.7% • On 24th May 2021 Libya's parliament approved COVERAGE the budget's first chapter of 34.6bn Libyan dinars (LYD), mainly related to salaries.3 The parliament MEDIAN COST OF MEB BY REGION has previously rejected the entire budget (93bn LYD), due to the value being too high and potentially having West 683.6 LYD ▼-1.5% an inflationary effect on the economy.4 East 725.7 LYD ▲+5.4% • On 24th May 2021, the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) South 810.4 LYD ▼-1.5% declared that letters of credit will no longer be needed for Tunisian goods to enter the country. This is a reversal from the decision to prohibit the opening of MARKET SHORTAGES Letter of Credits (LCs) for goods imported through the country’s land borders that stifled trade between • None reported Tunisia and Libya.5 This decision will allow goods to flow more freely between the two countries and lead to prices reducing across west Libya, however it Reported changes are month-on-month may increase the demand for foreign currency on the parallel market, leading to the depreciation of the LYD. Access the JMMI online dashboard MEDIAN MEB COST BY LOCATION EXCHANGE RATES OVER TIME6 MINIMUM EXPENDITURE BASKET (MEB) Location Cost of Since Since January 2016-January 2020 Since February 2020 Key Elements: Food Items MEB (LYD) Apr 2021 March 2020 Bread 32 kg Tomatoes 10 kg 785 +1.9% +7.2% Rice 10.5 kg Potatoes 12 kg Ghadamis 762.8 -3.9% +11.6% Pasta 9.5 kg Onions 7 kg Azzintan 760.2 -1.2% +11.7% Couscous 5.5 kg Peppers 4.5 kg Beans 6 kg Tomato paste 6 kg Ghiryan 758.1 +2.9% +8.7% Chicken 7.5 kg Black tea 2 kg Sabratha 731.2 +4.7% +31.2% Tuna 4 kg Vegetable oil 5 L Azzawya 725.4 +5.0% +32.8% Eggs 4 kg Sugar 2 kg Al Aziziya 720.2 -3.4% +31.6% Milk 8.5 L Salt 1 kg Key Elements: Non-Food Items Ashshgega 712.5 +1.9% +10.3% Zwara 708.7 +3.6% +29.5% Bathing soap 1.4 kg (9 150-g bars) Toothpaste 0.5 kg (5 100-g tubes) Zliten 694.6 +3.7% +12.9% Laundry detergent 1.3 L 692.4 -7.6% +5.7% Dishwashing liquid 1.3 L Yefren 686.5 +1.9% +4.7% Sanitary pads 4 packs of 10 AlKhums 654.5 -11.4% +21.2% Cooking fuel (LPG) 22 kg (2 11-kg refills) 641.3 +16.6% +14.4% Optional Elements Msallata 635.3 -5.3% +6.6% Water (drinking use Bani Waleed 634.7 -4.3% +6.3% only) 458 L Tarhuna 622.3 -4.1% +5.7% Median rent for 3-rm flat 1 month Janzour 609.4 -4.6% +2.8% Sirt 574.1 -6.0% -5.2% MEB PRICE INDEX The Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB) represents the minimum culturally adjusted group of items required Qasr Ben Ghashir No data No Data Since June 2020 (normalised, June 2020 = 1.00)7 to support a five-person Libyan household (HH) for one Median West 683.6 -1.5% +9.4% month. The cost of the MEB can be used as a proxy AlMarj 867.8 +14.9% +35.7% 1. 2 0 for the financial burdens facing households in different 815.1 -2.7% +33.2% 1. 15 locations. The MEB's contents were defined by the AlBayda 752.1 +10.2% +16.6% 1. 10 CMWG in consultation with relevant sector leads. AlKufra 707.1 +2.4% +8.3% 1. 0 5 Only the MEB's key elements (food and non-food items) Ejdabia 700.4 +0.6% +7.9% 1. 0 0 Derna 686.8 +4.6% +12.8% 0 .95

Tobruk 646 -4.8% +2.7% 0 .90

Median East 725.7 +5.4% +15.2% 0 .85

COST OF MEDIAN OVERALL MEB Algatroun 1065.3 +3.3% -5.8% 0 .80 1014.4 +0.4% -7.0% 0 .75 707.2 LYD Wadi Etba 864.8 +5.1% +2.9% 0 .70 Change since Change since Sebha 769.3 +9.6% +1.8% 0 .65 April 2021 March 2020 Brak 764.6 +7.4% +4.9% 0 .60 ▲ 3.17 LYD ▲77.73 LYD AlJufra 719.6 -0.1% -6.7% Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 O c t- 2 0 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 (+0.5%) (+12.3%) Median South 810.4 -1.5% -7.8% Median Overall 707.2 +0.5% +12.3% Median Overall Median West Median East Me dian S outh

2 Libya Cash Working Group Libya Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI): 1 - 11 May 2021 Cost of MEB Key Elements by Location

View interactiveView interactive dashboard dashboard Geographic distribution of the cost of the MEB and Geographic distribution of livelihoods vulnerability economically vulnerable housholds

Libya Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI): 1 - 11 May 2021 Libya Cash Working Group 3 PRICES OF MONITORED ITEMS FOOD PRICES OVER TIME PRICES OF FUEL AND HEALTH ITEMS Selected items (normalised, June 2020 = 1.00)8

Item Unit Median Change Change Item Unit Median Change since Change since price since Apr since March 1.70 price (LYD) Apr 2021 March 2020 (LYD) 2021 2020 Fuel items 1.60 Food items Unofficial LPG 11 kg 21.25 +21.4% -39.3% Tomatoes 1 kg 2.44 +14.7% +21.9% 1.50 Official LPG 11 kg 5.00 0.0% 0.0% Chickpeas 400 g 2.50 +11.1% +66.7% 1.40 Official Gasoline 1 Litre 0.15 0.0% No data Tomato paste 400 g 2.75 +10.0% +37.5% Unofficial Gasoline 1 Litre 0.79 -33.7% No data 1.30 Flour 1 kg 2.88 +9.5% +43.8% Pharmaceutical items Green tea 250 g 3.50 +7.7% +16.7% 1.20 Paracetamol 400mg [20 pack] 8.82 +7.3% +27.1% Beans 400 g 2.50 +5.3% +53.8% 1.10 Amoxicillin 500mg [21 pack] 11.80 +3.7% +31.1% Tuna 200 g 3.67 +5.0% +22.5% Ibuprofen 400mg [20 pack] 7.00 0.0% +27.3% 1.00 Black tea 250 g 6.00 +4.3% +20.0% Vitamin B [40 pack] 15.00 0.0% +46.3% Sugar 1 kg 3.00 +3.4% +26.3% 0.90 Metoclopramide 10mg [40 pack] 15.75 -1.6% +57.5% Chicken meat 1 kg 10.12 +1.2% +8.0% 0.80 Bread 5 pieces 1.25 0.0% +11.1% 0.70 Condensed Milk 200 mL 2.50 0.0% +25.0% Jun-2 0 Jul-20 Aug-2 0 S ep-2 0 Oct-20 Nov-2 0 Dec-2 0 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-2 1 Apr-21 May-2 1 Couscous 1 kg 3.50 0.0% 0.0% HYGIENE ITEM PRICES OVER TIME Median Overall (ME B) Food Chicken Tomatoes Potatoes Rice 1 kg 3.00 0.0% -7.7% Selected items (normalised, June 2020 = 1.00)9 Eggs 30 14.00 0.0% +40.0% Potatoes 1 kg 2.31 -2.6% -22.9% PRICES FROM UNOFFICIAL COOKING FUEL VENDORS (11 KG LIQUEFIED Lamb meat 1 kg 40.50 -3.6% +14.1% PETROLEUM GAS (LPG) CYLINDER) 1.50 Vegetable oil 1 L 7.00 -8.2% +55.6% (since June 2020, non-normalised) 1.40 Pasta 500 g 1.81 -9.4% +20.8% Milk 1 L 4.00 -11.1% +14.3% 1.30 Peppers 1 kg 3.50 -12.5% -12.5% 1.20

Onions 1 kg 2.00 -20.0% -33.3% 1.10 Salt 1 kg 1.00 -20.0% 0.0% 1.00 Hygiene items 0.90 Laundry detergent 1 L 2.44 +39.3% +8.3% Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-2 0 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-2 0 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-2 1 Hand Sanitiser 1 L 17.00 +9.7% No data Median Overall (MEB) Hygiene Handwashing soap Sanitary pads Toothpaste Dishwashing liquid 1 L 3.00 +9.1% +12.1% Sanitary pads 10 4.62 +2.8% +32.1% Toothpaste 100 mL 4.88 0.0% +21.9% Handwashing soap 1 bar 1.75 0.0% +16.7% NOTABLE MONTH-ON-MONTH CHANGES Baby diapers 30 16.94 -0.4% +12.9% Bleach 1 L 9.00 -2.7% No data Laundry Powder ▲ +39.3% Laundry powder 1 kg 7.00 -8.2% +7.7% Salt ▼ -20.0% Shampoo 250 mL 6.17 -8.6% +21.6% Onions ▼ -20.0% Toothbrush 1 2.50 -9.1% +25.0% Tomatoes ▲ +14.7% Other items Water 1 L 0.26 -10.3% -10.3%

4 Libya Cash Working Group Libya Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI): 1 - 11 May 2021 Distribution of Prices in Libya

FOOD ITEMS

HYGIENE ITEMS ITEMS WITH HIGHEST PRICES How to read a boxplot

15 Maximum location median in dataset (LYD) 13.00 Upper quartile: 25% of location medians are above this point 10

Overall median price across 8.00 location medians (LYD) ▼0.25

Change in overall median since 5 previous month (LYD)

Lower quartile: 25% of location 3.00 medians are below this point

Minimum location median in 0 dataset (LYD)

The 'location median' is calculated by first finding the median price of a given item in each assessed location, then taking the median of the resulting set of median prices.

Libya Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI): 1 - 11 May 2021 Libya Cash Working Group 5 Rent Monitoring Standardised rental prices May 2021 Introduction Methodology Location Standard Since Apr Since May Change Change in • Ever since the onset of the • From May 2020 onwards, in addition to the price monitoring of key items (MEB), REACH began price (LYD) 2021 2020 in IDPs* Returnees** conflict in and around Tripoli analyzing rental prices, which were extracted on a daily basis from the website 'Open Souq'. Dec-Feb Dec-Feb and Murzuq in April 2019, Tripoli In May 2021, 4826 rental prices were collected in Tripoli and Benghazi. The price change Municipality has been a key displacement findings are indicative. destination for Internally Abusliem 2007 +7.8% -25.2% -5.4% +0.7% Displaced Persons (IDPs)10. • In order to standardise property prices, key features were isolated through consultation with KIs to Furthermore, conflict related identify the average apartment specification for typical HHs in Tripoli and Benghazi. The average Ain Zara 2112 +10.3% -27.7% -26.7% +1.1% apartment for typical HHs was found to be a furnished, 3-bedroom apartment with 1 bathroom. All political tensions in West libya Hai Alandalus 2253 +4.3% -16.0% 0.0% +43.7% led large numbers of IDPs rental prices presented in this report have been standardised to this accomodation type. Janzour 2058 +2.5% -10.6% -2.5% +43.5% to move to eastern cities, especially Benghazi. Key Findings Suq Aljumaa 2307 +4.2% -13.9% +0.5% +6.5% • REACH is therefore exploring Tajoura 1948 -0.7% -17.3% -46.0% 0.0% • From May 2020 - May 2021, rental prices seemed to have decreased in Tripoli overall (-21.2%), rent monitoring as part of Tripoli Center 2497 +3.4% -16.4% -3.8% 0.0% the JMMI, in order to provide whereas, from April 2021 - May 2021, rental costs have increased by 5.2%. Between April 2020 - humanitarian actors with a February 2021, there has been a 59% decrease in IDP numbers in Tripoli overall. Tripoli Overall 2112 +5.2% -21.2% -16.4% +2.2% more accurate overview of key • Findings indicate that Benghazi has seen a 11.4% overall increase in rental prices from May 2020 expenditures facing IDPs in to May 2021. In Benghazi, IDP and returnee numbers have been negligible since October 2020. Benghazi Overall 2022 +11.4% +2.1% -0.1% 0.0% Tripoli and Benghazi. * Change in the number of IDPs and returnees are derived from the latest Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) (Round 34 & 35) from the International Organization of Migration (IOM). ** Numbers based on IOM-DTM numbers as well, comparing February 2021 to December 2020.

6 Libya Cash Working Group Libya Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI): 1 - 11 May6 2021 Main Food and Fuel Supply Routes

This map indicates the source and flow of transported fuel and food products according to the shop owner and vendor KIs. The arrow sizes are determined by the quantity of responses and provide an indicative scale of the reported supply routes. Location Standard Since Apr Since May Change Change in price (LYD) 2021 2020 in IDPs* Returnees** The indicated supply routes only visualize the flow of goods between mantikas (on a regional level); the map does not show the trajectory of goods that Dec-Feb Dec-Feb are sourced more locally. Municipality Abusliem 2007 +7.8% -25.2% -5.4% +0.7% Ain Zara 2112 +10.3% -27.7% -26.7% +1.1% Hai Alandalus 2253 +4.3% -16.0% 0.0% +43.7% Janzour 2058 +2.5% -10.6% -2.5% +43.5% Suq Aljumaa 2307 +4.2% -13.9% +0.5% +6.5% Tajoura 1948 -0.7% -17.3% -46.0% 0.0% Tripoli Center 2497 +3.4% -16.4% -3.8% 0.0% Tripoli Overall 2112 +5.2% -21.2% -16.4% +2.2% Benghazi Overall 2022 +11.4% +2.1% -0.1% 0.0%

7 Libya Cash Working Group Libya Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI): 1 - 11 May 2021 7 Appendix What is the CMWG? median price is available for an item in a particular location, Endnotes 1 PREVIOUS JMMI OUTPUTS The Libya Cash & Markets Working Group (CMWG), established the median price for that item across the region (west, east, Official rate: Central Bank of Libya (27 January 2021). Parallel market or south) is substituted. rates: Ewan Libya (27 January 2021). The rates from 1 January 2021 and 1 Factsheets Datasets in September 2016, is a community of humanitarian actors that January 2020 were used for the calculation of the monthly changes. support and coordinate cash-based interventions in Libya. The 2 Challenges and limitations April 2021 JMMI, REACH, May 2021 CMWG, based jointly in Tripoli and Tunis, is currently led by 3 Libyan Parliament Approves Salaries; Rejects Budget, Libya Review, May 2021 UNHCR and co-led by Mercy Corps. Price data is only indicative for the time frame within which 24 2021 April April it was collected. Prices may vary during the weeks between 4 ESCLUSIVA – Libia: il governo ripropone al parlamento un mega bilancio March March Methodology (cont. from page 1) adjacent data collection rounds. da 21 miliardi di dollari, Nova News, 19th May 2021 5 Tunisian goods entering Libya by land will no longer need to be paid for February February The methodology for the JMMI is based on purposive sampling. The data is only indicative of the general price levels in each through Letters of Credit, 24th May 2021 January January In each assessed market, at least four prices per item need assessed location. Representativeness on the mantika (district) 6 Official rate: Central Bank of Libya (1 January 2021). Parallel market rates: to be collected from different shops to ensure the quality level cannot be claimed. Even on the city level, price data must Ewan Libya (1 January 2021). The rates from 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2020 and consistency of collected data. Partner field teams, in be interpreted with caution, particularly in larger cities where 2021 were used for the calculation of the monthly changes. coordination with the CMWG, identify shops to assess based there is substantial variation in neighbourhoods’ socioeconomic 7 The MEB price index was normalised by setting June 2020 as the baseline December December and dividing each month's price by the price in June 2020. on the following criteria: levels. November November 8 The food prices were normalised by setting June 2020 as the baseline and October October 1. Shops need to be large enough to sell all or most The JMMI data collection tool requires enumerators to record dividing each month's price by the price in June 2020. September September assessed items. the cheapest available price for each item, but does not require 9 The hygiene prices were normalised by setting June 2020 as the baseline August August a specific brand, as brand availability may vary. Therefore, price and dividing each month's price by the price in June 2020. 2. Prices in these shops need to be good indicators of the 10 July July comparisons across regions may be based on slight variants Libya IDP and Returnee Report November - December 2020, DTM IOM, general price levels in the assessed area. October 2020 June June of the same product. May May 3. Shops should be located in different areas within the April April assessed city or baladiya. The JMMI does not intend to measure general inflation levels on Libyan markets. As per JMMI methodology, only the cheapest March March In locations where it is not possible to identify four large markets available price per item is collected, meaning that changes in February February that fulfil criterion (1), smaller shops, such as grocery shops, middle-market and upmarket goods are not captured. January January vegetable vendors, butchers and bakeries, are added to the shop list, as long as they fit criteria (2) and (3), in order to Rent Price Monitoring 2019 guarantee at least four prices per item of interest. Each month, price data is collected from the same shops whenever possible Benghazi consits of only one municipality, therefore December December to ensure comparability across months. neighbourhoods across the city were grouped together into 11 area units. November November The CMWG primarily targets urban areas throughout Libya, October October Limitations: the data collected are new offers presented by September September aiming to ensure coverage of markets that serve as commercial hubs for surrounding regions. Open Souq, therefore they may not represent the rental September September expenses of all IDPs, as tenants may receive cheaper offer July July Data is collected via the KoBo mobile data collection application. through informal channels. June June The CMWG maintains a joint KoBo account for the JMMI. The May May data collection tool is published alongside the dataset every April April month and disseminated to the humanitarian community. March March February February Analyses January January The median prices reported in this factsheet are 'location medians', designed to minimise the effects of outliers and differing amounts of data among assessed locations. First, the REACH is a program of ACTED. It strengthens evidence based decision-making by humanitarian actors through efficient data median prices of all assessed items are calculated within each collection, management and analysis in contexts of crisis.

assessed location (city or muhalla); then, REACH calculates ACTED is an international NGO. Independent, private and non- the median of this list of medians. All boxplots, as well as the profit, ACTED respects a strict political and religious impartiality, and operates following principles of non-discrimination, and transparency. MEB and price index calculations are created using this method. Since 2011, ACTED has been providing humanitarian aid and has supported civil society and local governance throughout Libya, from its offices in Tripoli, Sebha and The cost of the MEB is calculated by multiplying the median Benghazi. price of each item in the MEB's 'Key Elements' section by the quantity listed in the table on page 2. In cases where no

8 Libya Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI): 1 - 11 May 2021 Libya Cash Working Group 8