Monetary Policy in the 1990S: Bank of Japan's Views Summarized Based
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Monetary Policy in the 1990s: Bank of Japan’s Views Summarized Based on the Archives and Other Materials Masanao Itoh, Yasuko Morita, and Mari Ohnuki This monographic paper summarizes views held by the Bank of Japan (hereafter BOJ or the Bank) in the 1990s regarding economic and financial conditions as well as the conduct of monetary policy, based on materials compiled during the period mainly in its Archives. The following points were confirmed in writing this paper. First, throughout the 1990s, the Bank’s thinking behind the conduct of monetary policy had shifted toward emphasizing the transparency of its policy management. The basic background to this seemed to be the growing importance of dialogue with market participants, reflect- ing a change in the target for money market operations from official discount rate changes to the guiding of money market rates. In addi- tion, the fact that the revised Bank of Japan Act (hereafter the Bank of Japan Act of 1997) came into effect in April 1998 under the two principles of independence and transparency accelerated the trend of attaching importance to transparency. Second, on the back of the emphasis on transparency, the Bank enhanced its communication by increasing its releases in the second half of the 1990s, particularly after the enforcement of the Bank of Japan Act of 1997. Thus, the materials, especially those referred to in the latter half of this paper, consist mainly of the Bank’s releases. And third, in the 1990s, the Bank faced a critical situation in which it needed to conduct mon- etary policy while paying due attention to the functioning of the fi- nancial system. Therefore, this paper includes numerous references to the issues regarding the financial system, mainly the disposal of nonperforming loans. Keywords: Monetary policy conduct; Disposal of nonperforming loans; Financial system crisis; Bank of Japan Act of 1997; Zero interest rate policy JEL Classification: E52, E58, N15, N25 MONETARY AND ECONOMIC STUDIES / NOVEMBER 2020 DO NOT REPRINT OR REPRODUCE WITHOUT PERMISSION 55 Masanao Itoh: President, Otsuma Women’s University (E-mail: [email protected]) Yasuko Morita: Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (currently, Yamazaki Gakuen Educational Foundation, E- mail: [email protected]) Mari Ohnuki: Deputy Director and Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: [email protected]) .............................................................................................................. The authors would like to thank referees and the staff of the Bank of Japan for their helpful comments. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessar- ily reflect the official views of the Bank of Japan. 56 MONETARY AND ECONOMIC STUDIES / NOVEMBER 2020 Monetary Policy in the 1990s: Bank of Japan’s Views Summarized Based on the Archives and Other Materials I. Summary This monographic paper summarizes views held by the Bank of Japan (hereafter BOJ or the Bank) in the 1990s regarding economic and financial conditions as well as the conduct of monetary policy based on the materials stored in the Bank of Japan Archives (BOJ Archives) within the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies (IMES) and other contemporary materials. One of the authors was involved in the compilation of a similar paper covering the 1980s, and this paper may be regarded as a sequel to the previous one.1 However, the BOJ Archives regarding the 1980s are more extensive in volume than those regarding the 1990s, mainly reflecting the longer lapse of time since the 1980s. On the other hand, with respect to the Bank’s releases, there are more materials for the 1990s than those for the 1980s since the Bank changed its stance to putting an emphasis on transparency in the Bank’s thinking behind its monetary policy conduct. Therefore, many parts of this paper, particularly its second half, are based on these releases.2 Like Itoh, Koike, and Shizume (2015), this paper puts the focus of attention on (1) the Bank’s thinking behind the conduct of monetary policy and (2) the Bank’s as- sessment of economic conditions at home and abroad, as well as other factors that potentially affect the Bank’s conduct of monetary policy. In addition, this paper in- cludes references to (3) how the occurrence of the nonperforming-loan (NPL) problem in the financial sector and the resulting failure of financial institutions affected the Bank’s conduct of monetary policy, and (4) how the enactment of the revised Bank of Japan Act (Bank of Japan Act of 1997) affected the Bank’s formulation and conduct of monetary policy. Looking back at the overall economic picture of Japan in the 1990s, the period was a decade of protracted economic stagnation—as exemplified by the bursting of the bub- ble economy and the emergence of deflation—that had started with a plunge from the peak of the bubble economy. In terms of financial conditions, the following four points can be identified: (1) a sharp and continuous decline in asset prices, (2) protracted stagnation of economic growth, (3) a slowdown in growth of monetary aggregates, and (4) deterioration in assets held by the corporate sector and the occurrence of the NPL problem facing financial institutions. Looking at the Bank’s conduct of monetary policy under these conditions from the historical perspective, the following points can be noted. First, the shift to the conduct of monetary policy using short-term market interest rates as the target of control, which started in the second half of the 1980s, was almost completed by the mid-1990s. The previous conduct of monetary policy, which used the official discount rate as the bench- mark, changed in nature due to the completion of deregulation of deposit interest rates in October 1994. In March 1995, the Bank introduced a new system under which the guidance of market interest rates was defined as a monetary policy tool. In this system, the Bank releases a public statement regarding the guideline for market operations. As a result, the direct linkage of the official discount rate with deposit and loan interest rates that had until then been assumed was lost. ................................ 1. Itoh, Koike, and Shizume (2015). 2. The period for the disclosed BOJ Archives used for compiling this paper is through 2017. 57 Second, in accordance with the above change, with respect to money market oper- ations, the shift from Bank of Japan loans to monetary control mainly based on money market operations was completed in the second half of the 1990s. In January 1996, the credit line system intended for nine city banks that continued after the abolition of win- dow guidance in June 1991 was abolished, and since then, monetary policy has been conducted mainly through various money market operations. Although the announce- ment effect (the effect of explicitly indicating the general framework of a central bank’s policy stance) of the official discount rate was still widely acknowledged, the rate vir- tually became nothing more than a loan interest rate applicable to the Bank’s provision of liquidity to individual financial institutions.3 Third, during this period, the NPL problem induced by the bursting of the bubble economy occurred and became serious, and the subsequent failures of financial institu- tions forced the Bank to continue to conduct prudential policy. The cumulative amount of losses from the disposal of NPLs between fiscal 1992 and 1999 was 54.7 trillion yen.4 Prudential policy, which was conducted under cooperation between the banking supervisory authority and the Bank, played a role in preventing the materialization of systemic risk. On the other hand, due to the delay in developing the failure resolution legislation and a comprehensive safety net, the disposal of NPLs became prolonged, weighing on the macroeconomy, and it also affected the Bank’s conduct of monetary policy at the time. Under these circumstances, from February 1999, the Bank adopted the so-called zero interest rate policy to be the forerunner among the central banks. Fourth, in this situation, the Bank of Japan Act of 1997 was put into force in April 1998. The move to enact this Act started in 1996, and it was enacted after active discus- sions involving academics and former monetary policymakers as well as deliberations at the Central Bank Study Group (CBSG), an advisory panel to the Prime Minister, and the Financial System Research Council (FSRC), an advisory committee to the Minis- ter of Finance. During the process of enactment of the Act of 1997, deliberations were made regarding drastic revision of the central bank system in light of the progress in globalization in the fields of economy and finance and in marketization, and a new framework based on the principles of independence and transparency became the pil- lar of the new Act. Under the Act of 1997, the Policy Board has been set as the only decision-making body, putting in place a legal and institutional framework for ensuring independence and transparency of monetary policy. Since then, the Policy Board has virtually assumed the responsibility for determining the Bank’s monetary policy. The monetary policy centering on monetary control through various money market opera- tions, which was established in the mid-1990s, was conducted based on deliberations ................................ 3. Later, the complementary lending facility was established in March 2001, and through June 2006, the Bank announced the interest rate applied to complementary lending as the “official discount rate.” However, at the Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM) in July 2006, members of the Policy Board agreed that, given that the interest rate applied to complementary lending did not have the function of indicating the Bank’s basic stance on monetary policy, it was appropriate to use the term “basic loan rate” instead of the “official discount rate,” which tended to give the impression that this was a policy interest rate.