Overweight and Stroke in the Whitehall Study J Epidemiol Community Health: First Published As 10.1136/Jech.45.2.138 on 1 June 1991
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Jrournal of Epidemiology and Community Health 1991; 45: 138-142 Overweight and stroke in the Whitehall Study J Epidemiol Community Health: first published as 10.1136/jech.45.2.138 on 1 June 1991. Downloaded from Roger Shinton, Martin Shipley, Geoffrey Rose Abstract overweight itself, adjustment for variables which Study objective-The aim was to examine are also likely mechanisms (for example, the risk of increasing overweight for death hypertension) may be misleading.6 Some doubt, from stroke. furthermore, has recently been cast on the Design-This was a prospective cohort interpretation of the results of statistical models study, in which the main outcome measure which do not reflect the biological interactions of was the mortality ratio for stroke with the risk factors under consideration.7 8 For these increasing body mass index. reasons an analysis avoiding both inappropriate Setting-Civil service departments, adjustments and statistical modelling seemed Whitehall, London. worthwhile. The study will, however, take Subjects-Participants were 17 753 men account of cigarette smoking, both because of its aged 40 to 64 years. complex relation to obesity and stroke,9 and Measurements and main results-208 because overweight and cigarette smoking are stroke deaths were recorded. Men aged 40 to particularly relevant to intervention since they 54 in the most overweight quintile of body can be easily identified without reference to mass index had a mortality ratio of 2-01 medical practitioners. (95% confidence interval 0 9 to 4'7) The straightforward analysis of risk factors in compared to the thinnest quintile. The clusters does require large case numbers. The mortality ratio was 1 19 (95% CI 0 7 to 2 0) in cohort of Whitehall civil servantsl' now enables men aged 55 to 64. The increase in risk was assessment of the risk of overweight and its more apparent in non-smokers: age relationship to cigarette smoking for a substantial number of stroke deaths. adjusted mortality ratio 2 58 (95% CI 1-2 to 5 7). When smoking status and overweight were considered in combination a gradient Methods of the age adjusted mortality ratio was Details of the Whitehall study have been observed, from 10 in thinner/non-smokers published5 10; 18 403 male civil servants aged up to 3-15 in fatter/current smokers. On the 40-64 years were examined between 1967 and assumption that smoking and obesity cause 1969 and their records flagged at the National strokes, an estimated 60% of strokes could Health Service Central Registry. http://jech.bmj.com/ be prevented if these two easily identifiable A selfadministered questionnaire, completed at risk factors could be avoided. the screening examination, included details of Conclusions-The risks of overweight for cigarette smoking. For the present analysis death from stroke were more apparent in subjects were divided into non-smokers, ex- younger subjects and non-smokers. A cigarette smokers, current cigarette smokers, and substantial proportion of stroke deaths others (non-responders; pipe or cigar smokers). occurring under the age of 80 years would The latter group was excluded, leaving a total of probably be prevented if cigarette smoking 17 753 men on which to base this analysis. on September 26, 2021 by guest. Protected copyright. Department of and overweight could be avoided. Subjects were weighed in light clothing and had Medicine, University their height measured with their shoes removed. of Birmingham, Body mass index (weight in kg [height in Dudley Road Although there is good evidence that Hospital, overweight metres]2) was grouped into quintiles.5 Birmingham and blood pressure are causally related, the role of Mortality data were available until 31st January B18 7QH, overweight in stroke has been less clear. 1985, providing a minimum of 15 years of follow United Kingdom Overweight might cause strokes through the R Shinton up. Total person-years at risk during the follow Department of mechanism of high blood pressure, diabetes, and up period were cross tabulated by smoking status, Epidemiology and raised blood lipids, but a clear association has not body mass index quintile, and five year age group. Population Sciences, been described.1-3 Data from the Framingham Stroke deaths were defined as those where stroke London School of that itself Hygiene and Tropical study have, however, suggested obesity (International Classification of Diseases, 8th Medicine, Keppel St, does carry a significantly increased risk of stroke.4 Revision, 430-438) was certified as the underlying London WC1 Some confusion about the risk of overweight cause. This included cerebral infarct and M Shipley for stroke may have arisen because ofthe cerebral and subarachnoid G Rose tendency thrombosis, in recent years to make multiple adjustments for a haemorrhage, and stroke of uncertain pathology. Correspondence to: large number of interdependent risk factors. In a Narrow age strata, each with sufficient case Dr Shinton at 24 Belle Vue of the Whitehall cohort which numbers, are to examine the Terrace, Hampton-in- previous analysis ideally required Arden, Solihull, West was primarily concerned with glycaemia, a possible confounding or interaction of age on the Midlands B92 OAR, UK multiple logistic regression coefficient suggesting relation between overweight and stroke. The data into two Accepted for publication a non-significant protective effect of overweight were, therefore, stratified age groups July 1990 for stroke was obtained.5 To examine the risks of (40-54 and 55-64 years) for presentation. Overweight and stroke in the Whitehall Study 139 Confidence intervals for unadjusted rate ratios (95% CI 0-8 to 2-0), while that for current J Epidemiol Community Health: first published as 10.1136/jech.45.2.138 on 1 June 1991. Downloaded from were obtained by first calculating the confidence smokers was 1 66 (95% CI 1-1 to 2t6). interval for the ratio ofthe stroke deaths using the Because smokers are at increased risk of stroke binomial distribution and then dividing these by and also tend to be thinner, the risk ofoverweight the ratio of the person-years. Age adjusted rate for death from stroke was examined in the ratios were calculated as the ratio of directly different smoking categories. Figure 2 and table standardised rates. These age standardised rates II suggest that the risk gradient (but not the actual were obtained using the total Whitehall study rate) is greater in those who never smoked. population as standard. Confidence intervals for Confidence intervals, however, are wide. these adjusted rate ratios were calculated.'l In order to assess the risks for death from Attributable risks were calculated by first stroke of different overweight/smoking status estimating the expected strokes in each of two age combinations, the lower two and upper three groups (40-54 and 55-64 years) if the baseline quintiles of body mass index were each grouped rates had applied to the whole group; the together. As age is associated with both stroke risk difference between the expected and observed numbers estimates the avoidable stroke deaths in 0 2.0- o each age group. These were then added together. 0 0 0 m 1.5- 0 Results 0 After 15 years of follow up 3427 men had died. 0 Two hundred and eight deaths (6 1%) were ' 1.0 o 40-54 years| * 55-64 years attributed to stroke and 1352 (39-5%) to coronary 'o0 heart disease. A further seven strokes were in the pipe/cigar/non-responder group. Of the 208 0E 0.5- stroke deaths, 26 were attributed to subarachnoid 010. haemorrhage (ICD 430) and 42 to intracerebral 2 haemorrhage (ICD 431). At screening 43% (7601) of the men were 0 -22.4 -24.0 -25.4 -27.0 >27.0 current smokers, 38% (6697) ex-smokers, and Quintile of body mass index (kg/m2 19% (3455) had never smoked. The variation in mortality rates by quintile of Figure I Stroke mortality rate by quintile of body mass body mass index in the two age groups is shown in index in men aged 40 to 54 years and 55 to 64 years. fig 1. Table I provides the mortality rate ratios relative to the thinnest quintile and suggests there 1.41 Non-smokers may be differences between the two age groups. Ex-smokers cti E Current smokers However, mortality ratios for all ages have been 1. 1.2H presented both with and without age adjustment. o -.... Failure to adjust for age could overestimate the 0 1.0- in body 0 risks of overweight as there is a small rise 0 mass index with age-19% of men aged 40-54 C°, Q8- http://jech.bmj.com/ years were in the highest quintile of body mass 0 index compared to 22% ofmen aged 55-64 years. c 0.6- Conversely, age adjustment could obscure risks if X 0.4- part of the added risk of advancing age is due to 0 the increasingly long exposure to being 0 2 0.2- overweight. The data suggest a steady rise in the 635 hazards ofoverweight in men under 55 years but a 0- -22.4 -24.0 -25.4 -270 .>27.0 U shaped curve in the older age group. Overall, on September 26, 2021 by guest. Protected copyright. obesity appears to carry increased risk of stroke. Quintile of body mass index (kg/mr2) The age adjusted stroke mortality rate ratio for Figure 2 Stroke mortality rate by quintile of body ex-smokers compared with non-smokers was 1-25 mass index in the different smoking status groups. Table I Stroke mortality rate ratio by Body mass index quintile (kg/m2) quintile of body mass -27-0 >27-0 index -22-4 -24-0 -25-4 40-54 Years Person-years at risk 39 048 37 265 37 436 33 371 33 578 No of stroke deaths 11 14 13 13 19 Rate ratio (1 0) 1 33 1-23 1 38 2-01 (95% confidence interval) (0-9 to 4-7) 55-64 Years Person-years at risk 17 127 15 629 16 874 17 404 18 984 No of stroke deaths 28 24 23 26 37 Rate ratio (1 0) 0-94 0-83 0 91 1.19 (95% confidence interval) (0-7 to 2-0) All ages Person-years at risk 56 175 52 894 54 310 50 775 52 562 No of stroke deaths 39 38 36 39 56 Rate ratio (1-0) 1-03 0-95 1-11 1-53 (95% confidence interval) (1-0 to 2-4) Age adjusted rate ratio (1-0) 1-01 0-89 0-97 1-30 (95% confidence interval) (0-9 to 2-0) 140 Roger Shinton, Martin Shipley, Geoffrey Rose and smoking status, the results have been smoking and overweight directly cause strokes J Epidemiol Community Health: first published as 10.1136/jech.45.2.138 on 1 June 1991.