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Assessing the Effects of Policy Change on Households and Children's Milk

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Assessing the Effects of Policy Change on Households and Children's Milk University of Hohenheim Institute of Agricultural Sciences in the Tropics Rural Development Theory and Policy Assessing the effects of policy change on households and children’s milk consumption in peri-urban Nairobi, Kenya Master thesis by Franziska Anna Schneider University of Hohenheim, February 2018 A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the degree Master of Science Agricultural Sciences in the Tropics and Subtropics First supervisor: Prof. Dr. Manfred Zeller Second supervisor: Prof. Dr. Regina Birner Declaration I hereby declare that I, Franziska Anna Schneider, born on 12th of November 1991, matriculation number 638278, completed the Master’s thesis attached to this declaration independently and solely using the sources listed in the references and that it has not been submitted anywhere else. All passages of the thesis which were taken word-for- word or paraphrased from publications or other sources are marked appropriately. Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Manfred Zeller Second supervisor: Prof. Dr. Regina Birner Topic of Thesis: Assessing the effects of policy change on households and children’s milk consumption in peri-urban Nairobi, Kenya Semester: 5 I declare, here within, that I have transferred the final digital text document (in the format doc, docx, odt, pdf, or rtf) to my mentoring supervisor and that the content and wording is entirely my own work. I am aware that the digital version of my document can and/or will be checked for plagiarism with the help of an analyses software program. City, Date, Signature ii ABSTRACT Although 86% of the Kenyan milk is supplied through informal markets, policy makers aim to decrease the milk sold through informal markets due to safety and quality concerns. A potential decrease of the supply through the informal market would therefore increase its price. This study assesses the dairy product purchase and consumption patterns across income groups in peri-urban Nairobi with a special focus on children aged 6 to 48 months. It furthermore fits a demand system to examine the shift in demand of food items and dairy products driven by income and prices. Therefore, expenditure and cross-price elasticities of milk and other food items are estimated. It additionally fits a choice experiment on changes in purchase and consumption levels based on an increase in raw milk prices. Results indicate that raw milk accounts for 83% of dairy consumption per households. Households spent on average 73% of their monthly income on food items. The lower the income, the more was spent on food items and on cheaper food items like grains. Children aged 6 to 48 months consumed on average 42 liter of dairy products per year, out of which 36 liter were consumed in the form of raw milk. The results of the demand system indicate that households would increase their demand for dairy products by 9.4% if the income increases by 10% and decrease their demand for dairy products by 6.3% if prices increase by 10%. On the non-aggregated level, results show that raw milk and Omena fish are most sensitive to changes in price. Raw milk will be mostly substituted with Omena fish, banana and eggs. The results of the choice experiment show that households will either decrease raw milk consumption for all family members while replacing it with another product or keep the same quantity for children below 4 years and decrease it for the rest of the family if raw milk prices were to increase to 100 KES/ liter. Keywords: Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System, Elasticities, Nairobi, Raw milk consumers iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to express my gratitude to Dr. Nadhem Mtimet who supervised me during my stay at the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). His input, knowledge and feedback, especially for the demand model, helped me to improve and finish my thesis. I would also like to thank Dr. Silvia Alonso Alvarez from ILRI for her constructive comments and encouragement to improve my thesis. I would also like to express my gratitude to Prof. Manfred Zeller for being my supervising professor at university of Hohenheim. His input especially during the stage of proposal writing was much appreciated. I am also thankful to Prof. Regina Birner who decided on a short notice to evaluate the thesis as a second examiner. I would also like to thank all the people at ILRI who made my stay there such a wonderful experience. I am especially thankful to the enumerators, the field coordinators and all people who discussed with me my topic and who provided valuable input to my work. I would furthermore like to thank them for showing me a new country and the discussions about so many topics. Lastly, I am aware that my thesis would not have been possible without the financial support by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. iv Table of content 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1 2 Literature review ....................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Dairy sector in Kenya ......................................................................................... 5 2.1.1 Dairy industry ............................................................................................... 5 2.1.2 Dairy consumption ....................................................................................... 8 2.1.3 Milk quality and safety ................................................................................ 11 2.1.4 Access to finance, inputs and services ...................................................... 13 2.1.5 Policy and regulatory environment ............................................................. 14 2.2 Demand systems .............................................................................................. 17 2.2.1 Linear Expenditure System (LES) .............................................................. 18 2.2.2 Translog model .......................................................................................... 19 2.2.3 Rotterdam model ....................................................................................... 20 2.2.4 Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) ........................................................ 21 2.2.5 Generalized Addilog Demand System (GADS) .......................................... 24 3 Materials and methods ........................................................................................... 25 3.1 Description of study population ........................................................................ 25 3.2 Data collection .................................................................................................. 25 3.3 Data analysis .................................................................................................... 26 4 Results and discussion ........................................................................................... 33 4.1 Sample characteristics ..................................................................................... 33 4.2 Households’ income and its effect on household demographics ...................... 36 4.3 Expenditure on food and dairy products ........................................................... 38 4.4 Dairy products intake of children aged 6 to 48 months ..................................... 49 4.5 Elasticities ........................................................................................................ 52 4.6 Household choice decisions to an increase in milk price .................................. 58 5 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 65 6 References ............................................................................................................. 70 v Table of abbreviations AFC Agricultural Finance Corporation AI Artificial insemination AIDS Almost Ideal Demand System ANOVA Analysis of variance ASF Animal-source foods CBO Community-based organization FAO Food and Agriculture Organization GADS Generalized Addilog Demand System GAIDS Generalized Almost Ideal Demand System GDP Gross domestic product ILRI International Livestock Research Institute KCC Kenya Co-operative Creameries Limited KDB Kenya Dairy Board KEBS Kenya Bureau of Standards KES Kenyan Schilling LA-AIDS Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System LES Linear Expenditure System MoALF Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries MoH Ministry of Health NGO Non-governmental organization ODK Open Data Kit QUAIDS Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System SSMV Small scale milk vendors UHT Ultra-high-temperature vi List of tables Table 1: Price elasticity of raw and pasteurized milk in Nairobi and Nakuru, Kenya ...... 10 Table 2: The attributes used in the choice experiment .................................................. 31 Table 3: Socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the sample (n = 200) ..... 35 Table 4: Education of the household head in percent, by income group* ...................... 36 Table 5: Socio-economic characteristics of the sample in percent, by household income group (n=200) ................................................................................................................ 38 Table 6: Dairy product purchase pattern of the sample (n=200) .................................... 45 Table 7: Intake of dairy products by children between 6 and 48 months ......................
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