Trey Lance - NDSU Quarterback Executive Summary

Trey Lance - NDSU Quarterback Executive Summary:

Trey Lance is one of the harder prospects to evaluate on tape because of all the evaluation considerations one must make in order to look at his tape. These are all covered in the evaluation considerations section and include NDSU Base Personnel, Level of Competition, Body of Work, and others. I see Trey Lance as a developmental prospect with ways in which an organization could play him early if they are forced to. Trey in my opinion is not coming from a “pro-style” offense. There is a drastic difference between taking a snap under center and executing a true “pro-style” offense, but the College game has very few of those to begin with.

Trey will need to be groomed with a high level of drop variability and eye placement drills at the beginning of his rookie development period.

From a biomechanical perspective, there is a lot to love about Trey and his delivery. Knowing there will be no big mechanical changes can help project him as a prospect where the focus is football intelligence and footwork variability. This will also be one less thing your QB coach has to work on. I believe the focus of Trey’s development will need to be in an understanding of what you want to see from him with each drop, a well defined progression system, and a heavy dose of run & play action early in his career if he is forced to play in year 1 or 2.

Top Line Information:

● Games Evaluated: ○ 2019 - NDSU V Missouri State ○ 2019 - NDSU V South Dakota ○ 2020 - NDSU V Central Arkansas ● Prospect Information: ○ Height: 6’ 4” ○ Weight: 227 LBS

Video Breakdown Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIMj75LmSHA

Evaluation Considerations:

● NDSU Base Personnel - NDSU runs a ton of 11, 12, & 21 throughout the course of the games evaluated. This helps in being able to see Trey under center, and see a variety of run / play action looks. This hurts when evaluating the level of coverage he is seeing. He often sees a watered down coverage variation due to the fact teams are actively trying to take away the run. And he quite often throws to tight ends who are being covered by linebackers etc. giving much wider windows than he will see at the next level.

● Coverage Limitations - This could possibly be the biggest concern when trying to put together Trey’s evaluation. I touched on it briefly in the base personnel consideration but needed to further explain the coverage limitations. When you watch NDSU on tape you will primarily see teams in Cover 3, Cover 1, and possibly Quarters. The amount of pre-snap disguise he saw was very limited as well. You see a ton of man to man or “true zone”. What I mean by true zone coverage is players who drop to their zone rather than concept matching and dropping to their most reasonable man. This is the biggest difference between College and the NFL and is a red flag when looking at the level of coverage he was playing against. This is something that Trey can absolutely work on during the developmental phases of the NFL off-season. However, I would suspect that he will get an even higher dose of trap coverage than most rookie quarterbacks.

● Level of Competition - I say this not because of the FCS level tag. That is too surface level and doesn’t hold any real meaning. Anyone who is playing at the FCS level is also surrounded by similar talent ETC. making the evaluation nearly net neutral. I say this because NDSU is so much better than every opponent they step on the field with (or that I evaluated). The concern here is that he was never really asked to carry them in any meaningful way. I also worry about the level of complexity he saw from a defensive perspective which I already touched on in their base personnel consideration.

● Body of Work - This is always hard when a Quarterback has only started 17 games at the college level. Trey will already be extremely raw because of the lack of pro-style throws in his offense compounded with the lack of drop variability he has been asked to execute. Of course the bright side is that he does not have any bad habits that he has “repped” into muscle memory.

● Game plan protection - Throughout the course of his career Trey had no game with more than 31 attempts, with the average attempts per game being 16.82. This isn’t necessarily a red flag. However, if he is taken high in the draft, the team won’t be able to offer him these same sorts of game plan protections and compete for wins in the NFL.

Private Workout Eval Thoughts:

If an organization chooses to bring in Trey Lance for a workout they should design the workout in the following manner to expand on unknowns his tape evaluation.

1. 60-40 work ratio split of plant to hitch throws. This will give you a feel for how fast he can adapt to not taking a hitch or reset on his throws. 2. High Drop Variability. Make sure he has to do 12-15 different drop types so you can see how quickly he can pick them up / if he has been working on true pro style drops during his pre draft work. 3. Make sure he works run and play action drops of 7 & 8 step hitch footwork instead of the 5 & 5 hitch footwork we saw on his College Tape. 4. Get him on the move and evaluate his “J-Step” and whether it has improved. This was the biggest mechanical error that led to inaccurate balls on the run. 5. Full field progressions to deep in routes. Especially working a gator concept (ie. working the spark in the slot back to the shin 6) as this will help you evaluate how well he ties his shoulders and lead hip to the target. This was a huge accuracy red flag on tape but something that should be further evaluated in-person.

Successful Transition Notes, System Fits, & Development Thoughts:

● Work ratio of 70-30 plant to hitch during rookie mini camp and rookie periods during OTA etc. - This will help Trey get more comfortable with the ability to throw off of a plant rather than using a hitch or reset. The hitch or reset comes into play on the stick routes and okie routes on tape and it results in the DB’s being able to make a play on the ball. Trey can clean this up with the proper work ratio during developmental periods at practice.

● Limit drop variability if he is going to play early - If Trey is going to have to play early the organization will need to limit his drop variability if they want to see success early. Think Justin Herbert when looking at Trey’s feet. The more you can limit his drop variability early to the drops we saw on his college tape the more success he will have early. You can maximize the success he will have year 1 by making him comfortable from a footwork perspective by limiting his drops.

● Extension in run / play action - Something we want to see Trey improve during the developmental part of the NFL off-season is his extension in the run and play action game. At NDSU on tape he often times short arms the run game and doesn’t necessarily put the ball in the RB’s belly. He often has the ball up near the RB’s chin and this takes away from the real selling of run at the NFL level. An organization will need to make sure to work his extension and selling of run during run and play action play calls.

● Stance (Currently Even) Creates a punch step situation - This is the biggest successful transition note that we have for Trey. Currently his even stance in the shotgun compromises any sort of quality footwork he may have. This got exponentially worse in 2020 and appears to have been something he was actively working on making it an even bigger concern. He often takes a false step with his left foot (because his stance is even) and then lazily gets into the rest of his drop. This almost cost him 2 pick 6’s in his one 2020 game he put on tape. If this is not addressed with urgency when he arrives to a team this will rear its head in the pre-season and or team periods and lead to massive mistakes in the quick and modified quick game of an NFL offense.

Pro-Style Throws Seen Frequently on Tape:

● TE Stick - Evaluating the tape it is hard to tell if NDSU is actually running stick or if they are running a modified spot concept. With that being said, when he throws this on time (doesn’t take a reset) he does a tremendous job of ball placement and bodying up his target. He throws with “enough” anticipation which is what we want to see with an option route. He lets his target choose correctly and delivers. An example of him being late to a stick happens on 3rd & 3 against Missouri State with around 14:30 left in the first quarter. An example of him throwing this with proper timing happens on 1&10 with 5:44 left in the third quarter of the same game. While they are different concepts one is with WR on real stick other appears to be TE spot, they are essentially the same throws.

● Sail (On The Move) - We got a few good looks at sail on the move for Trey. He did a good job of driving the ball front shoulder to the wide receiver. NDSU runs their sails quite a bit shorter than he will see in the NFL but this is an easy one to see him executing well at the next level.

● Over (On The Move) - One of the most common concepts in today's NFL is the backside over on boot. We saw Trey in this situation quite a few times. The ball tended to sail when he threw this route. A lot of this has to do with his momentum never jumping back towards the target, he tends to continue to fade away on the backside over. A great clip of this is from the Missouri State game on a 2nd & 13 with 7:08 left in the third quarter.

● Deep Over - This is a throw that shows up a lot on NDSU film and that is great from an evaluation standpoint. His placement on the deep over is roughly 50 percent throughout the games evaluated. He is in stride roughly half of the time, the other half however end up in a spot where the DB’s at the FCS level make a play on it, whereas in the NFL they will absolutely be interceptions.

● Shin 6 - NDSU shows a couple of shin 6’s on film that we get to see Trey throw. A shin 6 for us is a 12 roll to 16 yard in. NDSU runs them as a 10 roll to 14 on tape but the throw quality is there. Trey doesn’t drive the ball on this and it results in a sliding catch. You can watch this clip at 1:50 left in the 3rd quarter against Central Arkansas. Mechanically his shoulders are not aligned and that is why the ball dives, the bigger question mark is if

this is because he full field reads this and comes back to it, something that should be worked on and evaluated at a private workout.

● Run Game Adjustments (Smoke & Bubble) - This is one of my favorite combinations of footwork, urgency, and ball placement Trey puts on tape. He has a knack for understanding leverage, coverage depth, and does a tremendous job with ball placement. When throwing run game adjustments the top two traits are urgency in getting set and getting the ball to your WR and ball placement. Trey does exceptionally well at both of these traits. At times he is a bit aggressive with a head up nickel or a trap safety and still throwing the adjustment however I believe with quality coaching, this becomes a non-issue.

Bio-Mechanic / Delivery Notes:

Overall:

● Great backswing, does a really nice job with keeping his wrist, elbow, and shoulder even at takeaway. Can “Dip” at times but based on route when the dip happens it makes sense IE, throwing a go ball we will see all QB’s dip.

● He does a good job with his front toe placement, rarely do you see him land outside of the target zone we want to see with Quarterbacks. He is consistently landing with his front toe between 45 & 80 degrees.

● Front foot is “spinny” at times. What this means is his front toe spins out as he throws, this tends to happen on balls he ends missing by a great margin. It also decreases his velocity by minimizing the amount of “brake” he has at the end of his motion.

● Front arm looks to be quiet which is exactly what we want to see from Quarterbacks. He has some “inward” pull but it is very minimal and only happens on high velocity throws. Also of note, inward pull can show up on tape when in reality it is actually the chest coming closer to the arm not the other way around, this should be further evaluated in person during a workout.

● There are times where his back leg swings instead of rotates. What I mean by this is you see his back foot swing all the way through, slowing the rotation of his body creating less velocity. We see this especially to the left side of the field. We want to see his back half rotate or “fire” with urgency. This is better down the middle and to the right. NFL teams will need a plan of attack for how to address this to the left side of the field.

● His transition to “L” and elbow drive phase appear to be impeccable on tape. This creates consistency in his delivery and helps him drive to the spot he wants. In the pocket is where he shows this off the best. The spinning front foot at times compromises this, it shifts his sequencing and that creates a situation where his elbow drive phase is elongated and doesn’t “finish” his throw on time. This will of course need to be further evaluated in person with field level video.

● Trey struggles with his “J-Step” while he is on the run. When watching all of the great Quarterbacks on the run you see them all consistently use a J-Step. This is where you take your back foot and point the in-seam at your target while on the run. Aaron Rodgers is a great example of someone who does a tremendous job with their “J-Step” and it results in him making throws off the ground. When in reality the best part of it is it helps him align his front hip and front shoulder to his target, creating accuracy and velocity while on the move.

Footwork Notes:

Under Center Notes: He did a great job in the run / play action of seating the ball. This helps prevent fumbles etc. with lineman pulling. The biggest overall concern from his under center work was the general “sloppiness” of the way he drops. He rarely works in straight lines while executing the run or play action game from under center.

Gun Notes: Currently he plays with an even stance out of shotgun. When in the gun this creates the illusion of every drop being sloppy. With an even stance he is forced to then take a punch step or “false step” as some coaches refer to it. This can be solved quickly by simply staggering his left foot back which is the same stance he currently uses under center. It is a hard projection of what a true “drop” will look like as there was not a single time he took a true (drop back) non run or play action drop from under center in the 3 games evaluated.

Hitch Notes: This is something that most young Quarterback prospects struggle with, especially ones with Lance’s level of body of work. However, Trey does a fantastic job of hitching with the proper sequencing. He always leads his hitch with his right foot which saves him from a left, right, left sequence that most young QB’s utilize to hitch.

Notes: When evaluating footwork it is important to discuss with the prospect and his college coach. You need to know what he was being taught to do vs what is just mechanically sloppy.

● Under Center Punch 1 (Run Game Adjust) - We saw a total of 6 of these drops over the course of the 3 games evaluated. We categorized all of these as punch 1 drops when in reality they are just run game adjustments. Meaning a run play was called but based on leverage or off coverage Trey took the perimeter throw, whether it be a smoke screen or a bubble. This is frankly some of the best drops and throws Trey puts on tape. He does a great job getting his inseam immediately to the target helping his shoulders square and delivery accurate passes consistently. He can be aggressive at times throwing into not quality looks, but I believe this will be coached quickly at the next level.

● Under Center Power 5/6 Hitch/Plant - We saw a total of 6 of these drops over the course of the 3 games evaluated. The fake oftentimes was “too high” as he would be faking towards the backs head vs. exchange zone. Very rounded in his drop, we want to see

him working in straight lines throughout his drop. He did a better job of extension with his left arm than his right, this is something that can be addressed quickly in rookie camp. There was minimal reach with his 1st step, creating a situation where he would pivot and land rather than pivot and push. This can be solved quickly with a better weight distribution knowing where the run action is coming from.

● Under Center Power 7/8 Hitch - Disappointingly, we only saw 1 of these drops over the 3 games we evaluated on tape of Trey. This drop looked highly uncomfortable for Trey, the drop appears to not be correct in terms of the way we want to see a Quarterback punch and clear the A gap for the back. Again, this could have been taught and would need to be examined through the interview process. He gets short and choppy at the top rather than being smooth and fluid, this creates a “stick” at the top of his drop which makes his hitch longer and less rapid. This leads to a timing issue where he passes up a wide open tight end on a 15 yard sit route and then leads to a compounding mistake of throwing late to the wide side of the field.

● Under Center Inside Zone 5/6 Hitch/Plant - We saw a total of 2 of these drops over the 3 game span we evaluated. One of his better throws on tape shows up off of this drop when he drives a deep over against South Dakota in 2019. Similar to power there is a lack of weight distribution pre-snap which will help solve a lot of these issues. He lacks depth in his 1st step. We want to see more ball extension with this drop and more accountability with his off hand being on the stomach. He does an excellent job of having patience at the top of his drop and not immediately climbing the pocket for no reason, this will help him a lot at the NFL level.

● Under Center Counter Boot - We saw a total of 2 of these Counter Boot drops over the 3 game span evaluated. The first thing that jumps off the tape is Trey does a good job of selling counter with the ball. It is the only time we see him work a two hand fake. Some easy improvements include, going from two to one on the fake, meaning selling the fake with an empty hand. On this specific boot look his eyes are slow to locate the defender, which could cause serious issues with perimeter defenders speed in the NFL. Similar to his other run and play action drops from under center, he lacks proper weight distribution based on the play and that compromises his depth on his first step. If this is not

corrected it will make him a candidate to get stepped on by pulling lineman at the NFL level.

● Under Center RIP Inside Zone Boot - We saw a total of 3 of these rip inside zone boot looks in the 3 games we evaluated. We define RIP as a reverse out on the inside zone rather than a front out. This is a drop where he showed clear 2019 - 2020 growth. In 2019 he struggled to cross 6 o'clock with his first step, this hurt when he was trying to work action deeper & wider to the back. In 2020 he demonstrated the ability to get to 7 or 5 o'clock depending on the way in which the fake was going which is excellent. He needs to do a better job of getting his head around quicker again like on counter boot.

● Under Center RIP Inside Zone Same Side Boot - We saw this drop a total of 7 times throughout the 3 games evaluated. This drop got substantially worse from the 2019 to 2020 seasons, particularly the decisions he made off of it. The theme from both years was that he struggled to extend the ball creating an effective fake at the next level. However we saw in 2019 Trey show great decision making from taking the “slicer” as he saw coverage sink. In 2020 he tended to hold the ball trying to force something down the field resulting in a near interception and 2 incompletions on 3 called looks of this play in the 2020 season.

● Under Center Rock Right/Left - We saw this drop a total of 2 times throughout the 3 games evaluated. This drop is another that saw significant improvement from the one rep he had in 2019 to the one rep he had in 2020. In 2020 we saw a better job of getting away from under center and then a better job with ball extension. Both plays NDSU ran off of this drop were set up shot plays where he was throwing to fairly wide open guys. He completed one in 2019 and missed one badly in 2020.

● Gun Catch Flip - We saw this drop a total of 5 times throughout the 3 evaluated games. This drop is arguably the thing Trey regressed at the most from 2019 to 2020. In 2019 he utilized the gun catch flip drop to throw quick game at times. It looked relatively good in 2019, the only criticism would have been that he could have applied more urgency to his drop. However in 2020 it turned into some sort of hybrid / lazy 1 spin drop that is ugly (with the appearance of being lazy) and compromised 2 of the 3 throws he had when he used it. Resulting in what should have been two interceptions if he was playing against

DB’s who had any relative ball skills. This will have to be a complete overhaul when he gets to rookie development phase.

● Gun 1 Skip - We saw a total of 9 1 skip drops from the gun over the 3 game span we evaluated. Trey plays with great rhythm when executing this drop, this drop is half technique and half “art”. Trey understands and executes the art portion of this drop at a high level. He doesn’t generate as much depth as you would like to see and he struggles to replace greater than 50 percent of his depth step with his skip portion. This is highly coachable. At times he will also “reset” unnecessarily, he appeared to begin to be more comfortable throwing off of a “plant” as the season progressed. This is something that an NFL team needs to have a plan for when he comes to camp. He had a few “late” throws in the red zone when utilizing this drop, it appears to have more to do with a stance and punch issue than the ability to foot contact with tempo during his delivery. An example of this play appears in the 2019 game against Missouri State with 6:56 left to go in the 3rd quarter, the punch, rather than turn and go makes him late in the red zone and creates a sail through the endzone on what should have been a touchdown. He tends to “drag” his left foot when executing this 1 skip, we want to see this turn into more of a “hop” or a “skip” this is easily corrected on an athlete of Trey’s caliber.

● Gun 3 Plant - We saw 1 3 plant drops throughout the 3 games. Unfortunately, it comes on a play where South Dakota baits him into a hank throw with a trap coverage and it gets broken up. On the one drop, the ability to turn and push needs to be worked but this is easily coached. There appears to be a slight “bucket” step, however line drops throughout camp should improve this.

● Gun 3 Hitch - This is the drop Trey took the most and it is not even close. He took this 29 times over the course of the 3 game evaluation. This drop is where you see his false step show up the most as you can see his feet even at catch then a slight jab before he turns and goes. This can be easily coached during the rookie development period. He often times double hitches to things that should be a single hitch, something to evaluate further at his pro day. Another worry is when he is throwing to his left, he tends to stay closed rather than utilize either a “t-step”, dove punch, or a simple float drop.

● Gun HB Screen - We saw this drop 3 times over the course of the 3 games evaluated. It appears that Trey / NDSU did not work footwork at all when it came to HB slow screen. Trey simply bails and drops as fast as he can, he tends to float way too much towards the screen, or doesn’t float enough. This ended with completing 0 HB slow screens over the course of the 3 game stretch evaluated with 1 getting batted down, 1 as a PBU, and 1 terribly off target throw.

● Gun HB Swing - We saw this drop 4 times over the course of the 3 games evaluated. Similar to the HB Screen we see Trey bail out on these drops, that can be coached during Rookie OTA’s / development period. These passes generally were more on target than the HB slow screen.

● Gun IZ 1 Skip - We saw this drop 3 times over the course of the 3 games evaluated. This drop specifically is extremely consistent in his struggles with just his normal 1 skip drop which has to be corrected to play successfully in today’s NFL. He needs to cover more ground and replace the proper margin on his “skip”. He is late at times with this drop but that appears to be more schematically the fault of the NDSU staff than it is of Trey.

● Gun IZ Boot - We saw this drop 3 times over the course of the 3 games evaluated. Trey did a great job of riding the back from hip to hip to create as good of an inside zone look as possible while being in the gun. Trey needs to continue to improve his “j” step when attacking throws on the run.

● Gun OZ 1 Skip - We saw this drop twice over the course of the 3 games evaluated. This turned into more of a punch 1 and a hop or reset than a true one skip making it difficult to evaluate. Trey threw once with an unnecessary reset on a play which cost him a completion while utilizing this drop.

● Gun Rock Right/Left - We saw this drop once over the course of the 3 games evaluated and it was in the 2020 Central Arkansas game. Trey did a great job selling frontside boot before pulling up and delivering a strike backside. It showed his tremendous ability to get his body in line when he decides to play with a sense of urgency.

Other Traits/Notes:

● Pocket Awareness & Movement - One of Trey’s best traits on tape is his pocket awareness and movement within the pocket. He does a great job sliding to make his blockers correct and also keeps his eyes down field while he is doing it. This is a great trait to bring to the NFL where the pocket is generally messy and you need to be able to operate in tight spaces.

● QB Run / Scramble - Trey is one of the better Quarterbacks in this class when he runs with the football. He is very dangerous with the football in his hands when he becomes a runner. However, for how good of a runner he is, he is not as fluid in a scramble drill as you would expect. He looks choppy at times on the run and sailed a majority of his throws on the run. This will need to get cleaned up early in his NFL career for him to maximize all of his physical gifts.

● 2019 - 2020 Changes - The biggest red flag for me was his 2019 to 2020 changes. Ideally in a world where you only played one game mechanically we would have seen significant improvement’s in his game. However, we saw the opposite. His footwork in quick game from the gun eroded to possibly the worst in this draft class. He appeared to be “rhythmic” when in reality it was slow, lazy, and resulted in a fairly awful outing when throwing quick game against Central Arkansas. This is something that can absolutely be cleaned up but appeared to be something he had been training at.