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Emerging Markets FOURTH Quarter 2003 Report

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Emerging Markets FOURTH Quarter 2003 Report Emerging Markets ® 2003 Year End Report Review · Emerging Markets outperformed the US and developed international indices · The Composite outperformed the benchmark for the quarter and year Table of · We trimmed exposure to China and added to cellular telecoms Contents Performance (for the Periods Ending December 31, 2003) Review Last Since Quarter 1 Year 3 Years1 5 Years Inception2 Volatility Emerging Markets (gross) 18.1% 55.9% 14.9% 18.7% 18.1% 25.8% Performance and Emerging Markets (net) 17.8% 54.3% 14.2% 18.1% 17.6% 25.7% Attribution MSCI EMF 3 17.8% 56.3% 12.8% 10.6% 10.1% 23.3% 1 2 3 Annualized Returns; Inception Date: 11/30/1998, annualized; The Benchmark Index Past performance is not indicative of future results. Outlook Outlook Portfolio Activity · Domestic consumption themes—cellular and auto—are key · India and Brazil are presenting fertile investment ground · Persistent outperformance of emerging equities, fundamental drivers of growth remain Active Exposure Emerging MSCI Over/Under the Benchmark % SECTOR Markets EM Free Cons Discretionary 19.1% 7.5% Consumer Staples 10.1% 6.0% Health Care 5.6% 2.5% Cash 1.6% 0.0% Telecom Services 12.7% 12.0% Materials 17.7% 17.4% Info Technology 14.7% 16.2% Utilities 0.0% 3.9% Industrials 2.1% 6.2% Energy 6.4% 11.6% Financials 10.1% 16.6% -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Portfolio Activity Purchases Sales Anadolu Efes Hyundai Mobis CNOOC Siam City Cement Anhui Conch Cement MTN Group China Mobile Soc. Quimica y Minera Bharti Tele-Ventures SABMiller ChinaTrust Financial Globe Telecom Siam Cement Malayan Banking Hankook Tire Tong Yang Industry Pliva © 2004 Harding, Loevner All Portfolio holdings and sector allocations are subject to review and adjustment y and may vary in the future and are not recommendations to buy or sell any security. A complete list of holdings appears on page 9 of this report. Review The Emerging Markets returned +17.8% in the fourth quarter (MSCI Emerging The Emerging Markets Free), closing out the year with a gain of +56.3%. These gains surpassed Markets index the substantial gains for the year in the global equity markets, reflecting the leveraged exposure of emerging economies to the improving global economic surpassed both the outlook, the more modest valuations with which emerging equity markets began US and broad the year, and a reversal of investors’ risk aversion following three years of troubled international indices markets. The weakness of the US dollar also helped boost US dollar-denominated in 2003. returns in international markets. Gains in Emerging Markets in the fourth quarter were led by surges in China of +35%, India +31% and Brazil +38%. The effect of strong Chinese demand on the global economy is reflected in the performance of the Materials sector (+24%) and in the companies and countries that supply this demand, such as Aluminum Corp. of China (‘Chalco’) (+126%) and Brazilian iron ore producer CVRD (+41%). Table 1. Market Performance (% Total Return) CY 2003 4Q 2003 Region/Country USD USD Latin America 73.2 23.7 Brazil 114.1 38.2 Mexico 32.5 9.8 Asia 50.3 16.7 China 88.2 34.5 India 78.9 31.8 Malaysia 26.9 9.3 South Korea 33.8 14.9 Taiwan 42.8 3.1 Middle East 57.0 9.4 Israel 57.1 9.3 Africa 46.1 20.3 South Africa 45.2 20.5 Eastern Europe 70.3 12.9 Russia 76.2 6.0 MSCI EMF Index 55.8 17.8 Emerging Market MSCI ACWF ex-US Index 40.8 17.1 MSCI US 29.1 12.3 economies are Source: Wilshire Atlas. Selected countries are the 10 largest, representing over 80% of the MSCI EMF Index benefitting from Past performance is not indicative of future results. strong FX reserves, low interest rates, Amidst this strong performance in the fourth quarter, the relative performance of consumer demand the Information Technology (‘IT’) sector (+6%) lagged, and weighed on returns of the markets where IT activity is concentrated, notably Taiwan (+3%). Over the full and a resurgence in year, however, IT sector (+45%), Korea (+34%) and Taiwan (+43%) all performed investment. more in line with the overall international market. The economies of the major Emerging Market countries have made enormous progress since the Asian crisis of 1997/98. Economic discipline is strong, foreign exchange reserves are at record levels and domestic interest rates are at historic lows. These economies are beginning to benefit from increased domestic consumer 1 Harding Loevner Emerging Markets Bold indicates companies held in the portfolio. The percentage of each position appears on page 9 of this report. Although these holdings, as well as others mentioned in this report were viewed favorably at the end of the reporting period, all portfolio holdings are subject to review and may vary in the future; and are not recommendations to buy or sell any security. demand and from a resurgence in investment, both industrial and in infrastructure. The improvement in the domestic markets is reflected in the Consumer Discretionary sector, notably the automotive and retail industries, which performed strongly in the fourth quarter, (+ 25%), and for the year (+72%), and in other industries including cellular telephony and financial services, discussed later in this report. Table 2. Sector Performance (% Total Return) CY 2003 4Q 2003 Sector USD USD Consumer Discretionary 71.8 25.0 Consumer Staples 39.9 13.3 Energy 88.0 24.5 Financials 44.8 18.5 Health Care 61.9 7.9 Industrials 64.3 22.0 Information Technology 45.0 6.3 Materials 63.5 24.3 Telecommunication Services 42.2 17.7 Utilities 79.7 18.3 MSCI EMF 79.7 18.3 Source: Wilshire Atlas Past performance is not indicative of future results. The Composite Performance and Attribution outperformed its benchmark for the The Composite gained 18.1% in the fourth quarter, +0.3% ahead of the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets Free Index (+17.8%). Standardized performance details quarter, driven by are on the front and back covers of this report. good stock selection, as it was for the year. The themes of the fourth quarter held for the attribution of the year as a whole. Strong stock selection, notably in the Materials sector (Chalco, CVRD and Siam Cement), the Telecommunication Services sector (Bharti Telecom, Advanced Info Services and MTN Group) and in the automotive industry (Consumer Discretionary sector, and geographically in Asia (South Korea and China) provided the outperformance. Graph 1. GICS Sector Value Added Relative to MSCI EMF Index 4Q 2003 2.0 Sector Selection Stock Selection 1.0 Active Contribution 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 Cash Utilities Energy InfoTech Materials Financials Industrials HealthCare ConsDiscret ConsStaples TelecomSvcs Stock selection was weakest in Latin America and in the Financials sector, where Banco Santander Chile and Bancomer (Mexico) provided positive returns but 2 2003 Year End Report Sector allocations are subject to change and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security in that sector. GICS referes to the MSCI Global Industry Classification Standard Source of Graph 1 is Wilshire Atlas. Past performance is not indicative of future results. diluted relative performance. Embraer (Brazilian aircraft manufacturer) and Grupo TMM (Mexican transportation company) also disappointed. Graph 2. Region Value Added Relative to MSCI EMF Index (%) 4Q 2003 4.0 Region Selection Stock Selection 2.0 Active Contribution 0.0 -2.0 Asia Cash Africa Europe Despite the MiddleEast NonEmerging LatinAmerica controversy, we are sticking with Yukos. Perhaps the most controversial stock in the portfolio this quarter is Yukos. We began buying shares of this company in 2002 because it had huge, low-cost oil reserves and was delivering production volume growth in the mid-teens, where other oil majors were struggling mightily just to keep oil production volumes flat. We have found no evidence that management has done anything disadvantageous to its minority shareholders other than provoke the ire of Putin and his government. Our view is and remains that the government of Russia is not interested in nationalizing state assets or poisoning the direct investment climate in Russia. We elected not to sell when the former Chairman Khodorkovsky was imprisoned, nor when the massive merger with Sibneft was cancelled nor when the tax authorities assessed a $3.3 billon retroactive tax charge. After that, we felt that a large part of the bad news was out—yet the oil remained in the ground. A solid senior management, including a number of Americans, is still at the helm of Yukos, running the oil company under best practices as we expected them to. The stock price has fallen 40% from its high, providing the largest erosion of value to the portfolio in the fourth quarter (–0.7%). We elected to add to our position at recent prices, which seemed to reflect a lot of bad news and fear. We may be wrong, but the fact it feels so wrong may prove, as is often found in emerging markets, that it Our style of picking is the right thing to do. strong growth companies has been When the tide of the economic outlook turned in March 2003, the global equity markets witnessed a surge in the stocks of companies whose survival was out of favor, but good considered most in doubt. The low-quality rally is reflected to some extent in the stock selection differential between the Growth (+49.61%) and Value (+62.87%) components of enables us to add the Emerging Markets Index for the year.
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