Guildford Environmental Forum Celebrates Its First 25 Years
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IN THIS ISSUE Our 25 years / The IPCC Report / Guildford in Bloom / Effingham Commoners' Day / Award for Energy4All / Making Guildford an Eco Diocese / The Year Gone By Future events on back page GUILDFORD ENVIRONMENTAL FORUM www.gefweb.org.uk DECEMBER 2018 – FEBRUARY 2019 Guildford Environmental Forum celebrates its first 25 years ON 11th OCTOBER, GUILDFORD to a packed room including the Lord ENVIRONMENTAL FORUM CELEBRATED Lieutenant of Surrey, representatives from ITS 25th ANNIVERSARY. Guildford and Woking Borough Councils, In a week when coincidentally the Surrey University. Guildford Diocese, Surrey Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Wildlife Trust, Surrey Hills AONB, Guildford Change (IPPC) released its alarming special Society, Guildford Rotary and several local report on the impacts of global warming, businesses. Apologies were received from the Forum had invited a celebrated speaker the leader, deputy leader and managing to address the prime issue of today – director of Guildford Borough Council (GBC) climate change. as well as many others who were unable to James Smith CBE, former chair of Shell attend. UK and of the Carbon Trust, proved to be As we settled back to enjoy the lecture, an admirable choice, speaking on ‘MUST the speaker, known for his commitment WE, CAN WE AND WILL WE AVOID to exploring and promoting low-carbon DANGEROUS CLIMATE CHANGE?' technologies, challenged the audience by setting an exam consisting of four 2 questions: The IPCC October 2018 report – a summary 3 How do we avoid dangerous climate change; Our human activities are estimated to emissions ceased today. The slower the rate of sea but still get the energy we need; 1 have caused approximately 1.0°C of global level rise, the greater the opportunities for us to at least cost; warming above the global average for 1900, adapt to it. and with a high likelihood of which is as warm if not warmer than the climate Limiting global warming to 1.5°C or at most was at its hottest some 12,000 years ago at the success? 6 to 2°C above 1900 levels will limit the impact on end of the Ice Age. The recent warming has terrestrial, freshwater, and coastal ecosystems, This resulted in a lively interchange of reversed a long term cooling trend lasting some views throughout the evening. enabling us to rely more on their services. thousands of years. Biodiversity will continue to decrease under the It quickly became evident that all were Global warming is likely to rise above its pressure of population growth. agreed that we must avoid dangerous 2 present increase of 1.0°C to reach 1.5°C climate change, which the IPPC report There were plenty of questions for James Smith to ponder. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase 7 2ºC will reduce the rate of increase in ocean has demonstrated as a global average policies and infrastructure, to bring this at the current rate, so we have a margin of just temperature and of loss of oxygen from the o temperature rise of more than 1.5 C about. 0.5°C to work in if we are to not to overshoot ocean. In addition the proposed reduction in above pre-industrial levels (we are It is unfortunate that the leaders at that demanding target. carbon emissions will decrease the rate of increase o already committed to a 1 C rise). The Guildford Borough Council were not Climate-related risks to the planet’s natural in ocean acidity. These changes will reduce risks speaker demonstrated, using a series of present to hear this message as the Council, 3 and human systems are higher than at present to marine biodiversity, fisheries, and marine authoritative studies and quotes, that it local businesses and residents need to work for the anticipated global warming of 1.5°C. The ecosystems. is technically possible to avoid dangerous together to reduce Guildford’s carbon risks include steadily rising sea levels, decreased To limit global warming to the 1.5°C target, availability of water for populations in arid 8 climate change provided that we use, as footprint. anthropogenic emissions of CO2 emissions must a matter of urgency, all the wide range The speaker left us with one final thought regions, added heat pressure on agricultural decline by about 45% by 2030, reaching zero plants in those same regions, an increased around 2050. of technologies available, including – MAKE IT URGENT – as the changes are incidence of severe heat-waves and forest fires, To limit global warming to below 2°C, CO renewables, nuclear, hydrogen and carbon massive and we have left it very late and coral bleaching, and ocean acidification affecting 2 9 emissions must decline by about 20% by 2030, capture and storage (CCS). Decarbonising are close to running out of time, and may the base of the food chain in places. Dry areas reaching zero around 2075. electricity is relatively straightforward but require carbon removing technologies will tend to become dryer, wet places wetter. Our heat and transport are more difficult. (‘negative carbon’). The climate doesn’t global food security will be diminished, while Pathways limiting global warming to 1.5°C the threat of forced migration will increase. The 10 with no or limited overshoot will require rapid He also quoted various studies which have a reset button and we have one shot combination of increased heat and humidity will and far-reaching transitions in energy use, land have shown that the cost, although non- at getting it right for our children and likely expand the spread of certain disease vectors use, urban development, infrastructure (including trivial, is affordable. However, both he and grandchildren. (e.g. malaria, dengue fever) north and south from transport and buildings), and industrial systems. the audience were more sceptical about the After an absorbing two hours the their current tropical to subtropical locations. The required transitions are unprecedented strength of the will to keep below the 2oC, chairman regretfully had to bring in terms of scale, but not necessarily in terms Climate models suggest how global warming let alone the 1.5oC, level. the proceedings to a close, thanking 4 of speed. They imply deep carbon emission may develop if we overshoot the 1.5C target and reductions in all sectors, multiple options It was stressed that we require both the the speaker for a thought-provoking move towards a global average warming of 2°C. will and action at global, national and local presentation setting out the challenges the for mitigation, and a substantial increase of Those global averages conceal the fact that the investments in those options. levels. We need to consume less, have a world faces. GEF will need to work hard to Arctic will warm twice or even three times as fast sufficient and visible price on carbon for all spread this message so that Guildford can as elsewhere, with a high probability of melting To reach the 1.5°C target, renewable energy 11 sources must supply 70–85% of electricity by goods, a logical, low carbon strategy based play its part. yet more Greenland ice, further raising sea level. At 2°C above 1900 levels, currently hot extremes 2050. on both price and regulation, with the right Report by Bill Kyte, photographs by Raymond Smith will be significantly exceeded, rain will be The voluntary global emissions cuts offered heavier leading to increased severe flooding in 12 by the world’s nations under the 2015 Paris currently wet areas, presently dry areas will suffer Agreement would lead to global warming of more extended droughts, freshwater supplies will about 3°C. Larger efforts are required. decline in dry regions, and higher sea levels will increase the likelihood of coastal flooding on 13 The demanding 1.5C target can only be low lying coasts. met by joint action from national and sub- national authorities, civil society, the private By 2100, global mean sea level rise may reach sector, indigenous peoples, local communities and 5 1.0 metre or more (less if the temperature individuals. International cooperation is essential rise then is 1.5°C or less). However, sea level for this target to be met. We did it for the Ozone will continue to rise well beyond 2100 even if Hole, and we can do it for the climate. The full report can be downloaded from http://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf 4 Comments from GEF's Climate Change Group 5 The GEF Climate Change Group has discussed the IPCC • We must increasingly adopt lifestyles and report on climate change [see below] and the 25th technologies that accord with “One Planet Living”. GUILDFORD IN BLOOM 2018 anniversary presentation by James Smith, and can • We should, as far as possible, ensure that our summarise its views as follows: investments are placed in “ethical funds”, which a. We totally support the key focus of our 25th should prioritise green technologies. Anniversary talk “that we must avoid dangerous e. Advice on how to achieve sustainable living for the climate change”, which the IPPC report (issued on 21st century, entitled ‘Transformation is Feasible’ 8th October, 2018) has demonstrated requires a was also published in October, by the Stockholm temperature rise of no more than 1.5oC above pre- Resilience Centre, as an update to the 1972 Club industrial levels. of Rome report ‘Limits to Growth’. It supports the b. We also fully endorse James Smith’s emphasis that thrusts of James Smith’s talk, and of the October we must MAKE IT URGENT as the changes are reports of the IPCC and the Royal Society.